Russia & China: Reshaping the Global Order!

Hey, and welcome to Geopolitical Trends, where truth matters. Very excited to be with you, and I mean it. You all know I don't say thanks just to sound whatever. I mean thanks when I say them. The reason I'm excited is because this topic, the topic we're going to be talking about, the visit of the, uh, uh, foreign minister of Russia, uh, Mr. Lavrov, to China, and the audience he's been granted, uh, uh, or has been granted to by presidency. The reason I'm excited is because what I talked about in my Russia book way back, it's, it's, it's happening right now in front of my eyes. So it's kind of like very exciting to at least think through things down the road, 5, 10 years down the road, and see them materializing. This is where my excitement is. So Uh, and, and I usually tend to think very, very hard before I'll, I'll say conclusively this is where I see things going on. So anyway, what I'm going to be talking to you about today, it has to do again with the, uh, visit, the surprise visit by Sergey Lavrov, Foreign Minister of Russia, to China, you know, and, and, and, and being granted the audience with President Xi in addition to meeting with Mr. Wang Yi It says a lot. There is a, there is a solid, strong message out there that's been sent to the West, mainly the United States. So this is what I'm going to be addressing today. But before I do this, let me say hi quickly to some of you guys. John Smith from New Zealand, good to see you. YT Chanel, Masian Dorcier, Ahmed Siti, uh, Yan Har, good to see you. SK Wong, Uh, and, uh, who else? Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Good to see you all. So here's the question we need to ask, and I know, by the way, guys, I changed this from 12:30 because I got something came up that I have to go, uh, to deal with. So I figured I'd rather just do it earlier. So appreciate your flexibility. And also, uh, to those who mentioned that they don't see, uh, notifications, and I did say last time Well, maybe YouTube is not doing— I know YouTube is allowing notifications because some of you do, do receive it. You know me, I'm all about fairness and what's right, so I'll give credit where credit is due. YouTube is not, and I repeat, is not sort of, uh, blocking, uh, notifications, whatever. It just— I don't know why some get it, some don't. Some Sometimes you just have to re-upload or reload your computer or restart it and so forth, and it will work. So, all right, here's the question that we need to ask. Uh, where, where's the question? I didn't put it yet, but I do have it right here. Let me, let me, let me put it up for you guys on a screen because I want you, uh, to see those questions. Then we'll go there, because they're, they're very key, key aspects of it. So here's the question, or here are the questions, uh, is, is, is this a strategic partnership, or is a strategic partnership in the making? Remember, when you talk about strategic alliance or a strategic partnership, we're talking about even the military dimensions will have to be included in it. Back then I argued, I do see the partnership going stronger. I am not just in a position yet to say that it is going to go strategically, but now I'm starting to see the signs. Why? Is because of what the conversation between Mr. Lavrov and Mr. Wang Yi, uh, uh, focused on. And, and the, and, and the main thing I want you guys to get is the focus on the military aspects of it. That's to me my hint as a geopolitical analyst. I read between the lines. What are they hinting at? Which means the alliance is gonna move forward. So second thing, how will these bilateral relations reshape the global order? Because don't tell me— you guys now, by now you know— don't tell me that this meeting is just for the sake of it. If it is not a reflection of the changes on the— oh, big thunderstorm here. There's a storm passing here. Funny, I'm starting to see too many storms here in Texas, which usually we are not known for this at this time of the year. So, but anyway, uh, uh, as, as I said, it's a reflection of the changes on the global stage. You know, this doesn't happen in vacuum. The West is having a hard time accepting this reality. You know, and like I said before on many occasions, the new multipolar, uh, world order that is already emerging, Russia and China is gonna play a role into it. US will play a role into it, but to what degree the US will be a, a, a contributing factor, and that remain to be seen, because at the end of the day The US might have to realize, well, you either have to play along or you end up by yourself, because no longer the world is unipolar. This is what the significance of this trip means to me as a geopolitical analyst. That's almost like cementing the— they, uh, put the dots on the, uh, the— what you call them— ducks in a row, in place to anchor this new geopolitical order. That, that's what it means to me. And third question is, because we have to think about it, who's benefiting the most from this relationship? Is it China or is it Russia? And that's question— I have the answer in the book. I'm gonna refrain from stating that because I like to have your input. So later on we'll get into it as we detail a little bit more into this. So, all right, now let me get into the headlines here because it's very important. There are two main topics there. I am gonna do a live stream on them. As a matter of fact, this information— wow, big one! You know, the, uh, the information about this, uh, just in case we guys get cut off, whatever, that's the reason why. There's a major thunderstorm passing through here. So, uh, it's not reported here. I read it overseas, but I could see also the impact of something like this, and we'll get into it. So, all right, first one is this one here. Let me share the picture with you. And where is it? Uh, oh bummer, I didn't put the picture. No, I did, I did. I was like, wait a minute, I've been working on this yesterday whole afternoon. Organizing. That's how long it took me, guys. It takes me time to organize all this information, and, and because I have to present it to you in a cohesive manner so that makes sense to you. So Turkish escalation towards Israel, you know, don't be fooled, because you're going to ask yourself, why now? Why they didn't do it 6 months ago, since October? Yeah, you know, I, I, I can't trust what the Turkish government is saying, so Turkey's decision now to impose— listen carefully— restrictions on the export of a wide range of products to Israel until the announcement of a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, and then President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's statements that his country will continue to support Palestine, uh, ah, it just hypes, it just hypes. You know why I'm saying it's hype? Because it was Turkey that was sending ammo to Israel. They are still maintaining, you know, if they are to say restrictions, how about you using a strong language there, or action for that matter, maybe a boycott. That's to me what politicians say versus what they do are two opposite things. So that's why I, I don't trust it, but I needed to share it with you. Next one is— this is Pedro Sanchez, the, the Prime Minister of Spain. Espana. Why is this important? It's because Mr. Sanchez said that the Spanish government, which just announced yesterday that, uh, the Prime Minister Sanchez, that is, will meet with several of his European Union counterparts next week. And you know why? To try to rally support for the recognition of the Palestinian state. Is the same, uh, thing that is taking place right now at the UN. There's a conversation inside the UN about recognizing Palestine as a state with the full membership. But that's— it's very important, of course, and all that, Here is what's the very surprising info about it, and the surprising is that Australia— yeah, believe it or not, Australia now is considering the same move. In other words, Australia considering, uh, recognizing Israel as an independent state. Australia makes you just wonder. And, and I ask you the question, you guys please correct me if I'm wrong. Is this truly the intentions of Canberra, or is it a diversion? You decide, because I'll provide you the info, but I want you to reach your own decision on that. So now, another one that I wanted to share with you, another headline which just came to my attention literally this morning. What are you looking at? You're looking at Australia and the US. This is part of AUKUS. Here is what's important about it. You know, officials from both the United States— actually, from all three countries, United States, Australia, and, uh, UK— are expressing now confidence. Listen carefully. Expressing confidence that new members could be added to AUKUS. And why is this important? It's because the AUKUS is aiming at working with Japan on defense tech or technology that is mainly on Pillar 2. And if you know anything about Pillar 2 in AUKUS, it pertains to what? Does anybody know, guys? If you know, please share this on the chat box. What is the Pillar 2 in AUKUS refers to? If you would, before I'll detail a little bit more, and I would like to have your input. Uh, like I always say, your input matters to me because your opinion is important. And also wanted to share this with you. Let me see what your answer is here. Pillar 2. What does Pillar 2 refer to within AUKUS? Straightforward, there is one particular aspect Remember, put it within the context of the defense technology and defense aspects of it. This is something New Zealand was opposed to, and if you know why, because New Zealand has specific doctrine pertaining to this. So let me see, uh, it is security, uh, intelligence. No, no, uh, John. John Smith. No, something else, something else specific. And I just want to get your spying. No, no, no, no, no, no. Nuclear. Hamas City. Nuclear. It has to do with the nuclear aspect. Now you ask yourself the question, why are you want— why you, AUKUS, wanted to work with Japan regarding the nuclear? Is this a hint that we gonna be moving the nukes on the Japanese soil? You have to think far ahead. And if we do, what is the objective of it? What for? What for? There were only one objective there, you know, and you all know this. This is why I found this very, very troubling, given that Mr. Fumio Kishida, the prime minister, he's right now in Washington, DC. So second one I found very headline— I found— and the last one, by the way, I found very, very interesting. I might end up visiting this country when I go to Asia. Okay, I have not decided yet, uh, but I found it very, very interesting. Before I'll say anything, can anybody tell me which country does have this port? It's— when now in, in, in, in Central Asia. So let me see your guess. Just guess. You don't, uh, you know, this is just the idea of us exchanging ideas. That's all it is. I want you— I want to have your input. Just give me a guess, just a guess before I'll detail. All right, let me see. It takes a while for this to show up. It's a major one, and now it's going to go about an upgrade And in my opinion, that upgrade is gonna change the trajectory for this country and the entire region for one specific reason. And, and I will share it with you once I see your answer as to which country is this. China? No, it's not China. Not China. Give me another guess. Come on, guys, you can guess. Vietnam? No. One more guess. Uh, Iran? No, no, this is in Southeast Asia. Singapore? No. North Korea? No. It's Malaysia. It is Malaysia. And here is the plan. Malaysia now plans a massive expansion, and you know why? Because it's gonna double the capacity and take over or overtake the one in Singapore. So Malaysia's biggest port operator, which is called the Westports Holdings Bhd, is now considering external investments. You know, I, I wish I was a millionaire. I'll put money there because it's investments that is worth it. So here is a free advice that I just put it on the air. For those who might be in a position financially to do so. Yeah, so now the port authorities, or the holding company that is, looking for external strategic investors to help fund about 39.6 billion ringgit, which is about $8.3 US billion expansion that will see capacity nearly doubled in the next decade. Yeah, to me, guys, literally, if you are, let's say, financially well-to-do, this is your, your gig right there because of the capacity on it. And there is another reason why is this important, is because it's gonna overtake to the one, the, the port in Dubai. If you only know that port in Dubai, the massive transactions that go through it because it's the hub between Europe and Asia. Now, the ones in Malaysia— this is what prompts me now to consider maybe making a stop in Malaysia. I have not decided yet. We'll get to that, uh, uh, we'll get to it when we cross that bridge. So, so that's what's important about it. All right, guys, let's get into our analysis here. And by the way, I will be sharing with you some insights from my, uh, uh, Russia book that I, uh, wrote. In which I discuss at length the Russia-China or the Sino-Russia relations, because it's exactly— I am not bragging here, you guys know me by now, I, I don't operate that way, but I am very excited that what I talked about in the book few years ago is now happening. It's so exciting, at least for me, very, very exciting that My prediction back then was aimed at specifically where it is right now. So, so this is what we're going to get in into our discussions here. So just for those who might not know the background, the, the, uh, uh, uh, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, uh, went to China yesterday. So, and they met, uh, uh, uh, Mr. Wang Yi and Mr. Sergey Lavrov before Mr. Lavrov was granted an audience with with President Xi. And once again, you put this in perspective. Janet Yellen went to China. Was she granted an audience with President Xi? Of course, the optics of it doesn't look good. And then if I were advising Mr., uh, President Xi, which I'm sure he has good advisors, you know, you won't want to do that. And yet he did it for the Russian foreign minister. It tells you what the message loud and clear The ties between the two countries are moving forward to the point— this is why I put in the title, if you remember, Defying the US Openly. Once again, nothing happens in a vacuum. You have to consider that one. So, and what the, uh, uh, uh, statements or the exchange between Mr. Wang Yi and Mr. Lavrov, uh, suggest is that Uh, uh, Beijing intends to strengthen its cooperation with Russia to def— and defend— here is the key word— and defend fairness and justice, in quote. So now, some will agree with this, some will disagree with this. And again, of course, that's how it is in geopolitics. You're gonna have to make decisions. It's not everybody's gonna be happy with But you're going to have to look for your own interest. Now, both countries, China and Russia, are thinking in terms of the strategic interest. That's lead me to the earlier question, which I would like to have your input. Who is benefiting the most from this relationship? Is it China or is it Russia? I'd like to see your answer, guys. Uh, just either or, either China or Russia. Now, I know some of you will say both, This is different. There is a specific reason to why I need to know your input for specific— either, either, either China or Russia. It's not about both. Yes, of course, they are— both of them is gonna benefit from that, but this is specific and I need— I'd like to have your input in this. Okay, Cam35, you say in Russia. Okay, to a degree. Uh, Johan Dharma, India. No, India has nothing to do with this, by the way. Uh, you say in Russia. Chanel, you say in China. David Ricard say in China. Hamad Sivi, you say in China. Uh, you saying— you saying Russia. The search for terrestrial intelligence, neither. Uh, no, I disagree with you on this. Uh, SK Wong, you're saying China. Okay, my own opinion, my own opinion is I concur with those who mentioned China because China has more in it than Russia. And I'll, I'll share with you as I move forward into all this. And here is the thing, both, both foreign leaders, uh, foreign, foreign ministers from Russia and China, Lavrov and Mr. Wang Yi. Both of them sort of stated, and I put in quote, the support for, in quote, stable developments in Russia under the leadership of President Vladimir Putin, end of quote. Why is this important? It is important because what just Russia had just few weeks ago? Elections. Who was elected? The Russian president Vladimir Putin for another term. That's what the Russians want. As a matter of fact, it was about 87% voted for Putin. Now, whether you agree with this or not is beside the point. The vote, that's what the Russian people want. That's what it is. But the statements, the statements, when you read something like this, and I quote, Beijing and Moscow will continue to strengthen their strategic cooperation in the international arena and provide strong support to each other, end of quote. Once again, the message is loud and clear to the West, because here is the reason what you need— here is the, not just the reason, but the significance of this and why they are saying— they meaning in this case it was the statements from, uh, the, uh, Russian, uh, uh, administration or Russian side The key word there is strategic cooperation in international arena. It didn't say strategic cooperation in bilateral relations. That's a foregone conclusion. This is why the US is upset with China, because China didn't want to condemn Russia regarding its military operations in Ukraine. And Russia— China said no, We're going to maintain our relations with the Russians whether you like it, you the US, West, NATO, whatever, whether they like it or not. As a matter of fact, NATO went ahead and labeled Russia as the next threat to the alliance. Well, hold on a second, which is pathetic if you see geographically where NATO is and where China is. How is China a threat under the North Atlantic Treaty? That's what I'm saying, the wording, guys. You— those, those statements here are well measured, and this is something you develop when you get too involved in geopolitics. You start to understand the weight of words, because those are not random words. Those are not— those are meant to send the message as to not only we will strengthen this relationship to the point of a strategic alliance, which is not there yet, but they are, in my opinion, working towards it. I would not be surprised within the next 2 or 3 years something major is going to happen regarding this. There is already, already a sign to this that I just came across, hasn't been disclosed yet, and they are working on it quietly now. To put the dots on the letter for this. And you know what it is? It has to do with the establishment of a security alliance in Central Asia. This is separate from what already exists. It has, it has something different, different, uh, objective for it. So this is why I'm saying, when you start to think— here is the image of President Xi and, uh, Mr. Lavrov. By the way, this picture is not from the recent one. I did have a picture for the recent meeting. I didn't want to use that because it wasn't clear enough, so I wanted to use an old picture. But the, the personal audience that Mr. Lavrov was granted with President Xi took place, and I did see it. Uh, I just wanted to share a different picture. I wanted to show you this one. By the way, I forget last time when I talked about Japan— I know it's a different topic altogether— I forgot to share this picture with you. Very disturbing in my opinion. I know some of you will say it's the Japanese culture, you bow and all that stuff. Yeah, but in international— remember, remember, remember— in international relations, context matters. What does this picture say? To you. Look who's standing straight. Look who's looking in right here with Tony Blinken. Yeah, anyway, I just— because I kept that picture for you guys, uh, I wanted to share it with you. So this is where I see the statements by the, uh, uh, now you have, for example, uh, the response to these statements, the recent one by the Chinese, the statement that was stated by the Russians The Chinese come back and responded by saying, and I put in quote, 'As permanent members of the UN Security Council and two major powers, China and Russia should clearly stand by historic progress, fairness, and justice.' End of quote. And by the way, this was a statement by the Chinese minister. Who said at the press conference, uh, minister, that is Mr. Wani. So they added, or he added, and I find it again the message loud and clear. It said, and I quote, we must oppose any hegemony, tyranny, or intimidation, the Cold War mentality, or any incitement to division and confrontation. End of quote. What is he referring to here? Mr. Wanyi is referring to the, uh, Cold War mentality that is now emerging in that part of the world. And then again, you put it within the context of— the context of what I shared with you, the two main things: the quadruple military joint exercises, which was announced on Saturday by Japan, Philippines, the US, and Australia, And you think about it, by now, AUKUS is going to enter into conversation to win Japan into becoming another member on, on, uh, on Pillar 2, which is the nuclear aspect. That's what I'm saying, guys. The statements are measured but also a hint to me as to where things are headed. As geopolitical analyst, again, I am seeing what lies ahead moving forward. And, and once you start seeing those kind of loud and clear messages, it becomes clear there is no going back, of course. So, and I repeat the statement to you by Mr. Wani when he said, and I quote, we must oppose. He didn't say, well, we are going to oppose. We must In the English language, that's a very strong wording. We must oppose any hegemony, tyranny, or intimidation, the Cold War mentality, or any incitement— that's another key word— to division. Because what is the purpose of fomenting tensions in that part of the world, in, let's say, uh, uh, uh, South, South China Sea? Fomenting or inciting those kind of tensions has one aim and one aim only: division and confrontation. It didn't say division or confrontation, it's both division and confrontation. So, um, this is what I found very, very interesting. The Russian side said one particular word that really, really caught my attention. And again, not surprised about it, but within the context of what's going on on the global stage, it said, and I quote, the Chinese are our friends. Very, very, very, very interesting. Very interesting. So because here's the thing, do you guys know that it was President Xi was the first to send his congratulations to President-elect Putin. You know, it was not disclosed in Western media at all. So, and now I want to take you to the journey of cooperation. I didn't even get into my own analysis from my book, which I will do. I'm now reacting to this, uh, article in, uh, in the Nikkei Asia, uh, where it was. It wasn't here in the West, by the way. So, and the journey didn't start last year or the year before. It goes way back. Even when I was doing the research back in 2016, '17, '18, I was doing the research for those 3 years because I do it slow. I take my time, and I'm not racing here to publish a book or whatever. No, I don't do that. No, it's because I have to make sure that what I am seeing evolving falls in line with my, with my analysis as to how this is going to develop into whatever direction this might take. That's why I'm saying this journey of cooperation didn't start yesterday, but to me it confirmed what I was— what I wrote back in my, uh, Russia book and so forth. So here's the thing. Russia and China, both of them strengthened their economic and diplomatic cooperation in recent years. It wasn't yesterday, it wasn't last year because— or the year before because Russia was sanctioned by the West. No, it was for the past few years. As a matter of fact, it was when China decided, made a decision to invest in Russia's projects in the Arctic. For a reason. This is one of the reasons why I do believe China will get more of this relationship than Russia. It's not that they taking advantage, that's not what I'm saying here. They are been— it's, it's almost— it is, it is strategic, but also it's almost has that, uh, connotations of a business-like. It's an almost business decision because China has to ensure access to a raw material, energy, and so forth. It's a business decision, but also is a strategic one. That's what I'm saying here. So, and this cooperation for the past few years goes in line with this strategic vision. Now, there are those who might use the term strategic partnership. It's not there yet, knowing what I know about the strategic aspects of it. Especially if you enter into a treaty. Well, for now, Russia and China have not entered into a treaty. I don't see that happening yet, but it will be a foregone conclusion. Yeah, and I feel comfortable saying it, it will be a foregone conclusion to think in, in terms of if a conflict, military one, erupts in that part of the world, you can see the participation of Russia. In support of China and vice versa. Not in the case in Ukraine, no, in the case of Asia. Because remember, Russia shares some borders with, you know, the countries around the area. That's what I'm saying. The strategic, uh, partnership, if you want to call it friendship, whatever you want to call it, didn't transfer or translate yet into a treaty, you know, because this strategic now rapprochement is only reinforced after, uh, uh, uh, what, uh, the Russia's military operations in Ukraine that started in February 2022. So, and you all remember what happened in March 2023 with President Xi. Does anybody know? I know it's, it's not, uh, and again, guys, it just— I like to have conversations with you. What did President Xi, uh, do in, in March 2023? This is now a test to your knowledge about geopolitics and international or global affairs. I'll, I'll make it easier a little bit for you. We're talking about a meeting, a Major one. Let me see here while I'm drinking water. Oh, you got it! Ateen Woo, Nicholas Saliba, you got it, you got it! President Xi end up going to visit Moscow in March 2023. Once again, what was the key term that was mentioned by both leaders at that time? It was that they reaffirmed— and I put this in quote— "boundless friendship," in quote, very loud and clear. Another word, the way I interpret this, is that our friendship is so strong, you, the West, won't be able to break it. That's what's where you have— if you have a good friend, a lifetime friend, you know, usually that bond is very strong. No matter what happened between the two, there's always that friendship. So, and once again, back then, here is the key. What I read to you earlier, what Mr. Wan Yi said about the, uh, the hegemony and citements and so forth, It was almost similar to what was stated back in 2023. Why? Because both countries at that time stated, and I quote, we condemn Western hegemony on the international stage. Very, very, very, very, very important, very important to understand these dynamics. Now, there is one thing I need you to understand. We'll step outside Russia and China. Let's step outside and consider some other events that have a tie, that have links indirectly to this. What am I referring to? I am referring to what took place on April 3rd of this year. That's just like, what, a week and a half ago, whatever that was. What happened? US Secretary of State Blinken spoke with none other than Azerbaijani president, uh, uh, Ilham Aliyev. Okay, why? He spoke about advancing— listen carefully— advancing the peace process with neighboring Armenia. That's nonsense. You know why it's nonsense? It's because you all know what happened with Nagorno-Karabakh. The, the, the, uh, Nagorno-Karabakh is the area that is predominantly Armenian population. It has a lot of Armenian, but it is also on, on the Azerbaijan side of the territory. It has nothing to do with the peace process. You know, the US will not promote peace process. Let's state it the way it is. It was about the consideration that the likes of Russia and China are thinking about the establishment of a security alliance in Central Asia. That is what it's all about. And of course, if you go back a year and a half ago, Iran and Azerbaijan were about almost a confrontation because the borders, they're closed. Of course, for us is easier to incite Tensions. Once again, this is why Mr. Wani's statements use the keyword specific incitement. This is what I want you guys to get. Understand the terminology, because understanding the terminology will pave the way for you to see the big picture. This is what it is. So, and of course, as you may know, between those two countries, the two Caucasus countries Armenia and Azerbaijan were trying to agree to a formal peace treaty, but talks have become sort of bogged down. There is no way. And including the issue now of demarcation. This is remind me, because they have about 1,000 kilometers or 620 miles border which remain closed as of today and heavily militarized. This is almost reminds me of what's going on between India and China. Which by the way, we went ahead and issued a public statement through the press secretary for the White House, which means it is approved by the US administration that Pradesh belong to India. Hold on a second, that is not the case because that border area is not conclusive. This is when I say let China and India work out their differences. But we don't want that. We don't want India to get along with China. That is the reason why we are pushing statement like this will only incite attention. And of course, when you got the likes of, uh, the Prime Minister Modi with that kind of nationalist mindset, uh, it's gonna take something like this and just, uh, uh, sort of push the narrative into supporting this argument. That's where I see the, the, uh, the challenge. And again, during the meeting, by the way, just to go back to our main topic, when President Xi met with, uh, or granted the audience, uh, to the Russian, uh, former— the Russian foreign minister, I'm sorry, uh, Sergey Lavrov, uh, to me it was a sign, literally. A sign of the strength of the relationship that will be far, far too strong for the West to break. So that, that's the way I see it. And interesting enough is that Lavrov stated, and I quote— the foreign minister, that is— and I quote, we would like to express our highest appreciation and administration for the successes that you have achieved over the years, and above all, the last decade under your leadership. That is to me the very, very interesting, uh, aspect of it. And I, I agree in this context with the author of the article, because that's where I got the— I had to read up on it because it caught my attention. Right away. And, uh, uh, and by the way, this article was written— I don't know who the, uh, author— it wasn't disclosed, uh, but it was written by the Associated Press, even though the one I read is from overseas. But this one was, uh, by the Associated Press. I'm trying to see who the author of this, but I can't see it, so I like to give credit. For that one. Anyway, let's move on. So this is where I see this, uh, uh, importance of this visit. So now let's get into my own analysis that I wrote in my book, which I will share with you as we move along. Again, I devoted a large section in one particular chapter, uh, just for the Sino-Russian relations. Very, very lengthy one because I had to tackle so many aspects to highlight the importance of where I see this is moving. And back then— and, and again, guys, you know me, I don't like to brag, whatever— but I am very excited that now I'm seeing what I discussed few years ago is now materializing. Here is what I wrote back then: the possibility of Russia-China alliance could provide both countries the right platform on which to further their cooperation on all fronts, including the military. There is no certainty about what the global geopolitical landscape might look like in the next decade. I even went far, as far as decade. But with certainty, however, one can conclude that the China-Russia alliance will further contribute to a precipitous shift in the global order and further decline of the United States' share of global power. The shift in the global balance of power is already underway. This is what I wrote back then, and it became evidence to me now. That's where things are. And of course, much to the chagrin of the West, you know, the elections now of the Russian president Vladimir Putin for another term and his presence on the global stage, even though with the sanctions, whatever. As a matter of fact, the IMF now is expecting the Russian economy to do far better, about 2.8% if I'm not mistaken. This is with the sanctions. Shows you sanctions were useless. So, and this is where I see, uh, uh, uh, because Russia saw also back then the interest of opening it up to China, the overture to China. China saw the interest, strategic, and what it will get out of this relationship. And it turns out its calculation— Beijing's calculations were right. This is why I go back to the question I asked you. There is more to China than Russia. Don't get me wrong, Russia is also benefiting from it, especially nowadays, but to China is a long term. So, and that's why I put in a book back then, I said I will detail the narrative about this point in the upcoming pages because I devoted a large section of this. If you ever get a chance to read, uh, uh, the book, uh, I wish you guys were here. I'll be happy to autograph it for you. So, so suffice it to say, as I argued back then, suffice it to say that Russia-China relations should concern the West. Why? Because we're the one created that with the incitement. We go in far lands and create incitements near the country's border. What do you think they're going to do? So, and this is why I argued back then, I, I argued, I wager and I bet that both Russia and China will likely reshape the geopolitical landscape, including the Middle East or West Asia, that is, while pushing the US away from Asia as much and as far as possible. I continued in my analysis that Russia and China intend both ill for the West, mainly the United States, especially in times of ambiguous American foreign policy, a dysfunctional US Congress, a political discord in Washington, and of course a president That is not altogether so. And a broken foreign policy, as I mentioned. This is what I was referring to. Because here's the thing, because if American people— because now this is where being informed is very important. And again, guys, I don't say it to be nice, whatever. Consider yourself lucky that you are a step ahead of an average person elsewhere in the world. You have now grasped and acquired, I hope, a better understanding of what geopolitics is all about. Otherwise, what am I doing here? So consider yourself lucky. And this is something American people in general term are lacking. They Because here's the thing, if American people become informed— because if they allow for what's going on right now to continue, it will harm— it is already harming where the country is, is going. Because the challenges, it will be far different what America has faced in the last 200 years, and it's coming. It is coming. So, and this is what I argued in the book back then, in, in conjunction with what we're talking about here. The debate at that time, and still holding now, are swirling in the West, from London and Washington to Brussels and Berlin, Paris and Madrid, and whatever else country, or, or Stockholm for that matter. And now I have to add Helsinki to the mix. Because they just dug their own graveyard. So, so this debate we're swirling about the Russia-China rapprochement may impact global balance of power. This goes now beyond just geopolitics or trade. We talking about the global balance of power. And to me, I was at that time was arguing that I hope the West understand the seriousness of this rapprochement. This is not a one-time deal. This is gonna be holding for decades to come as part of that shift of the new multipolar order. That's what I argued back then. Because why I, I wrote this? Because I— the research that I did, I came to a conclusion that some analysts, you know, in, in the West were saying, oh no, no, no, no, no, no, this rapprochement is provisional. I said, hell no, it is not, if you see and understand where this is headed. So I wasn't in support of this notion that it is provisional. Back then I argued this is going to mark a turning point in the trajectory of the global order. It's not provisional. Let's call it what it is. So, and that's when I wrote, because I felt comfortable. And by the way, my books have to be vetted by the US government, and I was like, no, that's how it is. And they didn't argue with this because they know it's the truth. I argued back then that Russia-China rapprochement indicates a much bigger shift that is looming. That was 5, 6, 7 years ago. That will be inevitable, or that will inevitably alter the global balance of power if Moscow— and I put a condition there— if Moscow and Beijing play their cards right. And they are. This is why I always think in terms of— it's not about just power, it's not about— it is about understanding how to read the geopolitical landscape. Both countries were seeing this a decade ago and start paving the way and the path for that. That is what I argued. And to continue in my analysis for this, I wrote back then and it's holding today. I said, while this rapprochement and entente may benefit China more so than it does Russia It remains true that China, not Russia, encouraged this alliance following the Chinese President, uh, Xi Jinping visit to Russia in 2019. And I wrote back then, interestingly, interestingly, the visit came at a tumultuous time with problems between China and the United States on multiple fronts. Those problems included, and they still hold until today, escalating tensions over trade, the banning of Huawei technology from the US, freedom of navigation in the South China Sea, and of course the Taiwan Strait. And at that time, because it was during the time when the, uh, at that time it was when the, uh Hong Kong demonstrations were taking place. And of course, it didn't help matters when Washington labeled both countries, Russia and China, as— and I put this in quote because that's what I wrote— revisionist powers, which is not true, that seek to challenge the primacy of the United States. Well, they're challenging it because your time is over. That's it. The global order is changing whether we like it or not. And the fact that in Washington they are in denial, they don't want to accept it, it's changing. Then that's why the way I wrote it, because I knew I'm gonna get a pushback against it, and I did back then. But I said, no, no, no, no, no, no, let's not pretend. Let's not pretend. That the United States has not contributed to this. And it has contributed to it through its failed policies, foreign policies, that is economic policies, sanctions. No, that's what led to the emergence few years ago to the Russian alliance, uh, uh, uh, to the Russia-China alliance. We contributed to that. So, and I, I put back then, uh, the current US posture towards both Russia and China, in my opinion, has contributed to their rapidly growing partnership. I am not surprised by these developments and raised this concern, you know, when, guys, I talked about it in one of my articles back then when I used to write for the Huffington Post. In 2015. That's how far back. So, so, and I continue, and I conclude with this: while Russia and China expand their relationship on many spheres, they have significantly focused in the past few years on, one, energy, two, military, and three, technology. And I take special interest in China's energy focus to highlight how China is financing projects in the Arctic. It stems from the fact that China will benefit from investing in the energy infrastructure pipeline, that is, as the region's estimated untapped oil and natural gas reserves are about $35 trillion. That's what I wrote back then. And now I'm seeing it on display right here. And, and while I have the link, I think I have a link here for you guys if you want to go, uh, read, uh, all my articles back then. They still on a record there. You go to this link right here, I put it in chat box, and please share it with others. And you can read all the articles that I addressed. I talked on a host of countries, but I did address about Russia and China and US foreign policy and and so forth. So you can check it out. So this is where I see why the importance of this visit at this time. It's go, uh, for the Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov into, uh, to, uh, Beijing, uh, sending this message very loud and clear at this time. And remember all this during the time, as I mentioned, for the quadruple announcements of the military exercises in Asia. For the Philippines, for the, uh, uh, Fumio Kishida trip to Washington when he's here now trying to woo Japan into AUKUS. Uh, you think about the Germans sending their troops to Lithuania. You think about the Secretary of State conversation with the Azerbaijani, uh, uh, president. All this should give you an idea of really where this is headed. And again, I am not surprised. I won't be surprised. And, uh, maybe as I continue my writing about the next book, uh, I'll, I'll, I will look more into the research and see where this is going and put my own analysis. Who knows, guys, guys, if maybe 5, 6, 7 years from now We'll do another episode if I'm still doing YouTube, and I hope I do. Uh, I'll remind you of it. I'll remind you of that because this is exactly what happened. That's why I wanted to share with you, uh, uh, my analysis that I wrote in my Russia book, because that's exactly what I wrote and it is exactly what is happening right now. So, uh, the next topic next time— that's all I have, guys. I'm gonna take a question or two from you. And, uh, once again, I want to express my sincere thanks to the channel supporters and, uh, all of you guys. I want to give a shout out to Drag88 Osiris for his continued support, guys. Buy Me Coffee every day, that's so grateful. I also want to give my thanks to Casey Wong, Buys Me Coffee, uh, Casey, uh, uh, Casey Quan. Or TC Quan rather, for Buy Me Coffee as well and support for the Asia trip. Uh, I, I'm so, so grateful to all of you guys, no exception whatsoever. So it means a lot to me. That is the support coming from you, not some entity, or because you all know how it is. Uh, I know someone put some nasty comments about why do I have to put PayPal and all that stuff. Uh, man, if you don't have anything positive to say, just save yourself the energy. Why do people get like that? I mean, just help me out, guys. Understand, I don't get it. Why do people have to be negative? Why can't they just be nice? You know, it doesn't take much. Just say hi, say thank you, say appreciate, show your appreciation. What's the problem with that? I just don't get it. I don't get it. But anyway, so, uh, to those who, uh, uh, uh, the last person who, uh, uh, donated through PayPal was Feng. Uh, thank you so much for your support and donation. Truly, truly appreciate it. Uh, here is the links for the Buy Me a Coffee should you guys decide to do that. You all know this is what it's for. It's— that's why I bring you quality information. This is not something I talk on the top of my head. You all know this. I do the diligent work, uh, due diligence rather. I spend, uh, afternoon preparing just for this. This didn't happen in 1 hour preparing it before. I, I worked on it yesterday the entire afternoon. So why? Because I want you to have quality information, and that's all it's all about. So All right, let me take a question or two. Oh, by the way, remember, remember, remember to join me on Friday with none other than Dr. Ken Hammond. I, I feel comfortable calling him a friend. I just reached out to him and in no time it's like, I'd be happy to do it. So Ken and I, we enjoy conversation and I'll be talking with him on Friday at 12:30. So, and I will post it again. Uh, the comments on the post didn't show on the community. I don't know why. Sometimes it's just the computer, it's not YouTube. I gotta give credit where credit is due. YouTube didn't remove the comments, whatever. Now, they removed some of the links that I put for you, but again, they announced it to me. They tell me about it. So I like to give credit because I can't just, uh, paint with a broad brush that YouTube does everything wrong. No, no, it's not. So anyway, let's take a question or two from you guys, then I'm gonna go and I have to do some— let me first say thank you to, uh, Balaji Ayola. Thank you so much for your super sticker, truly, truly appreciate it. Uh, Eleonora Marco, thank you for every— thank you, safe trip. Thank you so much, Eleonora, truly Eleanor, I truly appreciate you for doing this. It means a lot to me, and I want you to know. I want you to know. Uh, let me see. Also, there was another super sticker earlier. I didn't get a chance to read it because I was talking and I didn't want to lose my train of thoughts. Uh, let me get to it. It was right at the beginning, I remember. Let me go all the way to the top here. And I'll, I'll see it, then I'll, I'll jump into the question. Just please put Q, uh, and if you wrote your question earlier, rewrite it again because we had over 1,000 people here. So I, I, uh, Francis Tango, Francis Tango, thank you so much for buying me coffee, man. I truly appreciate you, not only the support here with Super Sticker your contribution to the conversation. You know, sometimes, guys, it's not about just money. So, well, I'm grateful, but also I am also grateful for your contribution intellectually, because we all learn from something. So thank you so much, Francis. Excuse me. Truly, truly appreciate you for that. All right, and, and bear with me, here is the one that I saw earlier. Uh, Tom Chang, I hope I pronounce it correctly, Chang, um, you put, if hegemonic forces threaten China and Russia or threaten world peace, China and Russia will stand together and fight to protect their own interest and safeguard world peace together. That, that is true. And this is where I see it going on the military front. And can you imagine both of them, Russia and China, combining their military capabilities You know, the US will stand no chance. NATO will stand no chance. It's a fact. I, I hope it doesn't get to that because I also know what the other side is going to be. In other words, the destruction of it. So I hope some cool heads will prevail and we won't see, uh, something like that one. So, so let's hope that doesn't happen. So, all right, let me scroll down now and check out your questions. Hope I didn't miss anybody by giving, uh, uh, you a shout out for, uh, uh, for the Super Sticker. I think I need somebody to, to help me with monitoring this, but it's also— I don't mind, I don't mind. Uh, Francis Tango, your question: Is China going to send troops to Russia for floods? China has experience in flood. I'm not aware about the troops, but the aid will be there. It is major one, that is the flood that, uh, the dam in the Ural, near the Ural Mountains. Yeah, and I won't be surprised. And actually, it will look good on the international stage if China send, uh, because you look at now what's going on in the Middle East or West Asia, what are we doing? Are we, are we even allowing aid to get in? So yeah, I won't be surprised, Francis. They could, they could do that. They could do that. And it will— to me, it's the right thing to do. You help fellow humans. So if— to me, uh, Chinese or not, Russians or not, whatever, uh, it's, uh, it's for our sake, our sake as a humanity. But you know, some of us, sadly, they just, just as, as they say in French, il faut jamais regarder le bout du nez, don't ever look at the end of your nose. Some politicians look too close, they don't see far. That this is what I'm saying, guys. If there is cooperation from the West, that the world will move far better, far better. I just, I just, uh, I wish, and this is where I'm, I am keeping my fingers crossed of the new multipolar order that will, that will usher in a global peace where everybody lives in peace. Now the US will have to decide how it wants to play a role into that new order, if they want to play a role at all. Because if they don't, they can just get out. Simple as that. You go do your things on your own, you go, you, uh, uh, trade with whomever you want, but you're not going to influence the rest of the world. That's the way I see it, and I hope it will lead to that, because that's what we need— a global peace. It's very, very, very important for where things are headed. So Uh, Time— Timeline Dunkley: Why do Biden, Trump, and other politicians need donations? Do you think they buy the elections? Who has the biggest money payments to give the Electoral College? Yes, you're absolutely correct. You're absolutely correct. It's because people, you know, you look at how the presidential elections here is the Electoral College that decides who the president is. So, and this is one of the things, just to tie it— I know it's on a different, uh, level altogether, but just to tie it— this is why I am not willing to take donations from Washington. You know, it's easy for me to reach out. I used to work there, still have my contact. Hey guys, you want to support the channel, whatever. But I know what, what the strings attached that comes with that, and I'm not willing to do that. So politicians don't have a clear conscience. It's all about your conscience. I, I can't live with myself that way. I'll have a hard time. I'll have a hard time, and I'm not willing to do it. So, so that's why I count on your support, not, not entities. But the politics— there's a lot of dark money in American politics. This is why we are the way we are, and our system is, is done for. It's the truth. And, uh, I I don't know how else to say it because there is no other way of saying it but the way it is. All right, let me, uh, I'm scrolling down, guys, to see if there is, uh— we got really over, uh, almost 1,200, uh, live viewers. That's great. I'm very excited to have this kind of viewership here. Please don't rem— don't forget to hit the like button. I would really appreciate it. And you can share the video with others if you feel like it. The word of mouth, it will help a lot. Will help a lot. Mass 2020, thanks, Dr. O. You're most welcome. You're welcome. AJ. AG, how much coffee does the dog drink? Well, to be honest, I drink 1 cup a day. That's what I do. I— that's what I do. So I used to do 2 cups, but 1 cup a day is enough. So, and once again, thank you all for your— to those who, uh, uh, uh, provided Super Sticker, I'm, I'm very grateful to you. Uh, I'll take a last question here., from Joy Cho. Question: Do you think the elections of Trump could accelerate the growth of BRICS and expedite the de-dollarization through his America First policy? Most likely it is, but it also creates more tensions with China, especially when it comes down to trade and tariffs and all that stuff. It would not look good moving forward with Trump as president, or any other president for that matter, uh But yeah, but again, BRICS will have to get its house in order before it moves forward. This is what I argued back then. Nothing's going to emerge forcefully on the global stage till you have your ducks in a row. Simple as that. ASEAN will have to do the same, BRICS will have to do the same, uh, and SCO has to do the same and all that. So that's, that's how it works. So, but, but the short answer to your question is yes. That's how I see it moving forward. So, uh, all right guys, I hope you find this very informative. Once again, remember to join me on Friday. I'll see if I might do a live stream for you tomorrow. Otherwise, I will see you on Friday for my conversation with Dr. Hammond. As always, remember, geopolitics impact your daily life in more ways than one. Till next time, guys. Bye-bye.