Russia Moving its Base from Tartus to Libya| What's the Strategy?

All right, hello everybody and welcome to Geopolitical Trends, where truth matters. Very excited to be with you because I have an interesting topic, something I talked about 3 years ago. I wrote about it, I talked about it, and now I'm seeing the reality of it emerging to the surface. So, and this one has to do with geopolitical competition in none other than Africa. So, but specifically, I will be talking about the Russia, about Russia moving its base, naval base, that is, from Tartus into Libya. Why Libya? Very, very, very, very strategic move, an interesting one. And that's what I'm gonna be providing you my own analysis, uh, uh, in this live stream. So, uh, just prepare. If you have any questions, I'll be answered— I will be happy to answer them for you if you have Super Sticker questions. But also, if this is your first time here, please, please remember to subscribe to this channel. And remember, guys, you're supposed to help me out to reach 100,000 by the end of this year. We are on December 16th, we got only 2 weeks and a half. So, so I will be gladly grateful to you if you can help me out reach that target number. So, uh, all right, before I'll do any of this, I need to share some housekeeping stuff with you. Uh, first of all, I want to say thank you for your comments regarding the survey that I asked you whether you want soundtrack music in the background when I do recorded videos. 70% of you say no. And I'm glad I, uh, I, uh, share— I asked your opinion because your opinion matters to me. I'm going to share one here from Say It Like It Is. Put a comment, and I quote, music is good if your audience is watching a movie, but geopolitics and the information that you are trying to convey is very important, and with music in the background, it's a distraction. I want to hear and understand every point that you are making. Thank you, Dr. O, for asking this important question. I really appreciate your feedback. Another one quickly here, guys, from kittenlang333: When speech is the focus, music is distraction, and Dr. O, your charisma is music enough. Thank you so much for that. So, so I'm gonna instruct the editor to remove this soundtrack from any future recorded video that I'm gonna be doing for you. Those are usually scripted. I do my own analysis. Of that. All right, now second two major things that I'm going to share with you as part of what's going on around the world before I delve deeper. You all heard about General— Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov. I have a picture of him who was assassinated yesterday in Moscow. Uh, very, very, very troubling in a sense that this is not a— in a, in a war zone inside Russia, in Moscow. Very bad for Russia. That tells you, you couldn't control what's going on inside the country. The optics of it, guys, and, and it's just very, very devastating. In my opinion, it's very devastating to Russia. So now, who's this guy? Lieutenant General Igor Kerelov. He's the one who headed the Russians' radiological, biological, and chemical protection forces. So it was in the bioweapons, that is. So, so what happened is that Ukraine, uh, Ukraine SBU, which is the, uh, the equivalency of CIA, uh, Ukraine now claims that, uh, unofficially claimed it was behind the assassination. Uh, which— no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. I digged into it already, and I'll be happy to make a live stream for you guys if you want it. So if you want me to do a live stream about this, please say yes or no in the chat box. But I just wanted to share this with you. And by the way, you know what it was used on it? It was TNT. TNT is very, very, very Powerful. So it was 300, uh, grams of TNT that was used. So it's very, very problematic. And the fact that, as I said, the fact that it happened in Moscow, that's very, very problematic. So, uh, and I did already, uh, reached out and get some info about who really was behind it. So this my— so if you want me do live stream, just let me know, uh, and then I'm be happy to do it for you. Second topic, actually two more headlines that I need to let you know. One of them has to do with the incompetent idiot Olaf Scholz. What just happened to him? He lose— he lost the confid— the vote of confidence, or the confidence vote, that is, in the parliament. Which means what? It triggering now snap elections in Germany. In other words, in a simple language, They don't want the idiot to stay in power as a chancellor anymore, and rightly so. Europe is going down, literally collapsing, because that's what we planned on. We planned on this since 2007 or '08. I was in Washington. I was aware of what's going on. So now the, uh, he lost the, the confidence vote, which means, as I said, they're gonna call for snap elections. The same thing is happening in none other than with the dictator idiot Trudeau. He is also has sort of lost the confidence of the parliament. So Canada is collapsing. Same with Germany, same with UK, France, Italy. You guys got the idea. So I am going to be doing some analysis for you about these two countries separately, and I'll record it and, and, and share it with you when we go there. I just wanted to share this with you ahead of time, uh, because I am going to be taking off for about a week, so you won't see me online for a while. And I wanted to do this for you guys before I, I take off for that week. So anyway, uh, let me take a look at the— well, first of all, let me see, see our community here, because I always like say hi. Henji, good to— Hen, good to see you as always. Uh, Philip or Philip, good to see you. Mr. Amhara, good to see you and thank you for your comments. I'm going to share it with the community later on. Uh, Army with Harmony, good to see you. Willie Homan, as always. Hong Long, good to see you. Truth Seeker, Alistar, uh, Z, Zan, Zan, good to see you as on my timeline. Dunkley, as always. Francis Tango, here you are. Kenneth Joseph, good to see you. And who else here that, uh, yeah, our, our community as always. Once again, guys, if this is your first time here, please make sure to subscribe to my channel here and hit that notification button so you'll be notified every time I either do live or release a new video. All right, guys, let's get into our topic. Russia moving its base from Tartus in Syria to Libya. And I'm gonna be telling, giving you the details and all that stuff. So, but first, let's ask the questions. And the questions we have to ask, as I said, I talked about this 3 years ago, and, and, and there is a video out there. I did it on a big channel last time, and I asked the question, will Africa become the new geopolitical ring where the fighting or the competition between major powers is going to become fierce? And this is exactly what is happening. So, so here are the question for you guys here, guys. Why relocate to Libya? Why Syria relocating to Libya? Of course we saw what happened in Syria, but there is more than what, what meet the eye on this. Second question, what is the strategic objective? Because there is a strategic angle to this. And third question, is this move aimed at NATO. Once you understand the role of Libya and why we gave the green light for the takedown of Libya, very, very, very fascinating, uh, uh, developments, and it's going to change the dynamics moving forward. So now I decided to do this analysis on two fronts. One of them is economic and the other one is geostrategic. So we'll start with the geostrategic one. In addition to the articles that I read, which I will share with you, I'll provide you my own insights and into how I see this moving forward, and we just go from there. So, and I have pictures of some locations and so forth. So, so the port— if you are to think about the port, the port of Tartus, which Sy— uh, the Russians have had— because remember, Russia has been in Syria for how long? Does anybody know? Can you give me a number? How many years Russia has been in Syria? Let me just see your knowledge about this. And once again, like I always say, just to share the knowledge with you, just give me a number. And I can tell you here— oh, Hank, you're close, 55. You, you're close. It was about 50, 50 years they have been there. So gives you an idea of the ties between Russia, Soviet Union back then, USSR, and the Syrian regime. So, but we're not going to go back then, we're going to go into, let's say, just 2015. Why 2015? Because that was the turning point when Russia get involved directly and helped Assad to stay in power at that time. So in 2015 Russia got involved directly into the Syrian war. So, and that's why sort of the Syrians in return went ahead and granted the Russians the right to use the port of Tartus, which as I said was even before that for about 49 to 50 years. FYI, the port of Tartus is the second largest port after Latakia. You know, so makes more sense for Russia to have a naval base there because it's considered— what is considered a strategic and a cornerstone for a rush to south because access to warm waters. That is what's the key to Russian, uh, uh, uh, objective. Russia's thinking in long term because Russia was also wants to ensure it does not get sort of flanked from let's say the area in Dardanelles, the, the Strait of Dardanelles, or the Black Sea, or whatever. So access to water from the Mediterranean into that direction makes perfect sense. And this is where I'm going to share quickly with you the, uh, the comment from Amhara, who shared with that. He said, and I quote, perhaps Russia wants to connect its Mediterranean base with the Atlantic, and, and in it the Red Sea. Algeria and Libya border the Sahel. From the Sahel westwards is the Atlantic coast, and eastwards is the Red Sea, then the Indian Ocean. Good point, and I'm gonna share geography with you, by the way. Thank you, Mr. Amhara, for sharing this with, with our community here. So, and this is one of the things you need to understand, the geostrategic aspects of this. Of course, what happened with the, uh, uh, uh, offensive by the opposition in Syria, Russia started to think right away they're not going to risk it. They're not going to risk leaving their assets there. It's because before you know it, the West could behind closed doors, uh, uh, provide those groups with some advanced systems and attack the Russian assets. So what they end up doing, they— Russia in this case— open up an air bridge between Libya and Syria. And this is why sort of Russia has sent two Kurskov-class frigates, uh, then there is another class frigates called the Karagovich, uh, pardon me if I mispronounce this one, two support ships and a submarine. So you can see just why. So what the Russians end up doing moving those assets to about 13 kilometers from the Syrian coast. Why is this? Because according to international law, the waters of a particular country— the waters close to a particular country, which is considered part of its territory, is about 12 nautical miles. Anything above 12, it's international waters. And this is why the Russians moved it about, uh, uh, because they anchored their ships and so forth, 13 kilometers from the Syrian coast. So it was very, very interesting to see this dynamics moving forward. So, and this is why, uh, sort of Russia had to think in terms, will it make more sense strategically speaking that we move the assets before they are targeted first, and second, to strengthen another front that is going to be becoming even hotter, if I may use the term. So, so, and this is why if you are to look at geography, and I don't have this specific one, but Astana, the Astana route, which basically for Russia remains the preferred route, if I may say the term. But in geopolitics, you can have your choices, you can have your preference, you have to work with what you have. Conditions have changed on the ground, have changed in Syria. Russia will have to adapt, so which means moving their assets into other locations. But there is more into it for particularly Libya. Because you will ask yourself why they didn't move to, let's say, Egypt, for, for they have a good relationship. But it won't make sense. It will make more sense in Libya than it is in any other places. So let's do a little bit of geography and a little bit of, uh, of history. So this way you guys have an idea about what are we looking at geographically speaking? And like I always say, I don't like to assume. So, so let me open up the web, the, uh, World Atlas, to whom I give credit for the map, and I'm going to share it with you on the screen. Okay, where is World Atlas? There we go. I know it takes a while for it to upload here, so, but I'm gonna go ahead and move on. The, the map will show up here soon. So where is Libya located? Okay, why it's not sharing here? Add to stage. Okay, here we go. Sometimes it just takes a while. So this is Libya. So where is Libya located? Libya is located in the— called the Maghreb, or Maghreb region of North Africa. It is bordered by 5 countries. Those are Egypt, Sudan, Chad, Niger, Algeria, and Tunisia to the east, southeast, south, southwest, west and northwest respectively, meaning in that order. Once again, but think about the strategic importance of these guys: Egypt, Sudan, Chad, Niger, Algeria, and Tunisia. So, uh, Libya has a coastline on the Mediterranean Sea to the north. Libya is also located in the northern and eastern hemispheres of the Earth. Very, very, very strategic location when you consider how the country— where the country is. And I'm going to share a map that I saved way back. For some other reason, I decided to save this map. I said to myself, this might come handy one day. And here it is. I'm going to show you a map of the Sahel region. And here's where Libya is. And again, think, think, think like an analyst. Why Libya but not, let's say, Algeria, not Egypt, not Morocco? Not— of course Morocco will not, because Morocco and Russia are not, uh, you know, they do have friendly relations, but that's where it ends. Uh, which, by the way, for Morocco is getting even worse now, given that the possibility of Russia might expand its presence in Algeria is going to put now Morocco on a high alert, given the tensions that exist between Morocco and Algeria regarding the, the, the desert, the Sahara area, that is. So, but for now, suffice it to say, we're going to focus on those countries: Mauritania, Mali, Niger, Chad, Sudan, and Eritrea. When you look at the Sahel region Now again, think strategically, guys. This is why it's important to understand this particular location. Now let's talk about a little bit about a history of Libya. A lot of people do not know how Libya came to be. Well, of course it has a long history because Libya has some sort of a distinct, uh, history because he went through every country does, but for this one here, because the, the, the, uh, the periods, the historical periods it went through— they went through 6 periods, believe it or not. There is what's called the ancient Libya, then you have the Roman era, you have the Islamic era, the Ottoman rule, the Italian rule and the modern era. So, and with this takes— brings us to the question of this: how many times Libya has been subjected to varying degrees of foreign control throughout its history? So, and of course, after the Arab Spring in 2011, leading to a civil war with which different groups have emerged and fighting for powers, whatever. But we are the one who pushed for the tensions in Libya. Does any of you know why, why we ousted Gaddafi? If you can just give me one word or two in the chat box. It was one major event, major Let me first say thank you to Rafael, as, as always. Thank you so much, Rafael, for your kind support. Really appreciate you, man. Something is wrong about the way Russia is behaving. I start to believe that the assessments of the CIA might be right. Russia may not be as strong as we think they are. They are cutting and run. I see your point, because I'm sure Rafael You are referring to how much Russia is being attacked but is not responding, and, and if I am guessing right. So, but I see your point into this because it will be perceived that way. So, so thank you. So what do you guys think? Is Rafael right or wrong? If you, you can comment on his statement. And again, guys, respectfully please, because that's what we learn from each other. Opinions matter. We exchange of idea in a civil way, or civil manner, that is. On his, and, and, uh, it's, it's important because that's how we learn. So, so what do you guys think? Do you think Rafael is right in his assessment that Russia, uh, is kind of, uh, uh, I don't know, should I call it weak? So just comment on this, uh, respectfully, and I'm gonna try to look at your, uh, answers as I move forward. Uh, I'm also looking at, okay, AC, you say gold, the gold. Carlos Delfino, uh, John Smith, you guys are right. But what is exactly with this gold? You, you, you are on the right track. What is with it exactly? Oh, oh, Hang in G, you got it. Hang in G, you got it. G wants to sell oil in local currency, lira, dinar, and gold, and so forth. Oil. Oil. They want the transactions to be conducted in gold or the dinar for Libya. So which means what? The US would not like that one. That was the decision why it was made to kind of— you know what, Karim Lewis, is the same argument. Who else? Who other— a former leader, he, he, he died. A former leader made the same comment about this Does anybody know? It's in, in West Asia. Who was the other one who made the same, uh, uh, uh, approach in considering transacting in other currency beside the dollar? Oh, Russian Patriot, you got it! Uh, it was the late Saddam Hussein. Now I'm gonna share something with you. I'm And again, I have not confirmed this yet. I'm going to look into it. I was informed, but again, it's— I was informed, but I am not buying it, and I'm going to check. I was informed that when the rebels in Syria freed all the prisoners, guess who was in prison? Saddam Hussein. Not confirmed. I'm just wanted to share with you what I was informed about, and I'm going to look into this. Saddam was in prison in Syria. Now, as one who've been around knowing how the certain things work, the possibility is there. You'll have one person, everybody around the world think he or she in this location but in reality is in a different location. Some will say, oh, the person is dead, but in reality it just got a different name, different, different IDs, personalities, change facial recognitions and so forth. And that's it. But anyway, I am gonna look into it and we just go from there. But suffice it to say, uh, for now let's focus on the history of Libya. So if we are to go to Libya, the ancient history— and I think I have a picture of something that I wanted to share with you, if I find it. Yeah, I found some old history. This is from the ruins of the Roman presence in Libya back then. So, so let me start with the ancient history of Libya. So the first traces of human presence in Libya dates back to Paleolithic era. And this is where subsequently the Berber— to those who are familiar with the Maghreb region, the Berber, some of them in Algeria, some of them in Morocco, some of them in Libya, the Berber in the south. So the Berber established their community, and in the 3rd millennium BCE, Phoenician colonies emerged along the coast. Which later became Carthage or Carthage in Tunisia. That's what it became. Libya is also known for its ancient Greek settlement, okay, which was founded about 7 centuries BCE. That's how far back it goes. Then you move into 146 BCE. What happened during this time? Libya came under Roman control. This is where you see on your screen the ruins of the Roman presence there. So the Roman control— after the fall of Carthage, the Romans developed infrastructure including roads, okay, and brought their cultural and social tradition. And during this period, Libya became an important grain supplier to Rome. Move forward to medieval period which is basically after the fall of the, after the fall of the Roman Empire. And I have a picture here, guys, I want to show, show it to you. After the Roman, the fall of the Roman Empire, Libya fell under the rules of various conquerors, including Byzantines and Arabs. And in 7th century, you all know what happened in 7th century, right? In 7th century, Arab forces conquered Libya, leading to the spread of Islam and Arab culture. And this period led, led the foundation of the formation of Libyan identity. Fast forward to the 11th century, Libya became part of the Arab Caliphate, or caliphate, and later came under the control of various dynasties including the Fatimids and the Ayyubids. During this time, the country experienced some sort of economic and cultural flourishing. And that's when this encouragement sort of encouraged certain developments to move from Tripoli to Benghazi and vice versa. And those were the cities where they evolved because of these developments. So Benghazi, which is a big city, you all remember what took place in Benghazi. Uh, I don't know if you guys saw the movie, uh, uh, what was that movie? It was based on a true story, uh, of the attack of the embassy in Benghazi. That's what it was. So, uh, a former colleague of mine died in that one. So at that time, so Tripoli, uh, Tripoli, or, or Tablos in Arabic and Benghazi, Ben Ghazi, uh, emerged as major cities. Now fast forward to 13th century. Who was the leading power in 13th century? Can you guys type in in the chat box? No one knows. 13th century, but put it in conjunction with Libya. Let me see, I'm gonna check the chat box. See, uh, 13th century, 13th century. You guys should know it. Oh, Alistair O'Kane, you got it. The Ottomans, 13th century, was very, very crucial aspects of, uh, the history of Libya. So now, 13th century, Libya came under the control of the Ottoman Empire, and that one, it ruled from that time till the 20th century. So you're talking about 7 centuries there. So, so the Ottomans made significant changes to the governance and economy of Libya at that time. However, here is where the difference— the tribes remain autonomous. This is one thing the West does not get, and that's the reason why I share history with you guys. The West doesn't understand how, for example, countries in West Asia or North Africa or even Africa itself, tribes are very crucial to the social structure of any country. And we think that this is why the Brits, when they went to the Middle East and start carving out the Middle East, they had no clue in understanding, uh, in, in, in understanding the importance of tribes, the social makeup of societies. That's why you see in the problems you're seeing in the Middle East, it's because the stupidity and the idiocy of the West, including the UK, when they carved out the Middle East in that case. Now you move into the 20th century. What came with it is the, uh, sort of the— during the earlier era of the 20th century, the colonial powers. So, and this is why when you think about what happened to Libya in 1911, who invaded Libya in 1911? Do you guys know? If you can type in, in the chat box. If you see the movie Omar Mukhtar, it should give you an idea. Uh, uh, Genghis Khan? No, not, not at that time and not in that era. Who, who in— oh, oh, I saw it here but he moved on me. I saw the name, uh, Nimba. Nimba. Italian colonialism. Italy. Was the one that invaded Libya in 1911 and initiating a long and brutal conflict that lasted till when? 1931. This is— if you get a chance, guys, to watch history, go look for a movie called Omar. Omar Muhtar, he was a fighter in Libya, is the one who drove the Italians out. So, so the Italian authority pursued the policy of colonization, the same that France did in other— Algeria and Morocco, in addition to the Sahel region, the same way Germany did way in Central Africa, the same way the Dutch did, okay, Portuguese back then, that's what they did. So they pursued— they Italians in this case pursued that colonialization era that included the repressions of the local population and the destruction of the traditional power structure. This is why if you want to destroy a society, break down its traditional foundation. It's not about wars, it's not about weapons. It's the foundation of what a society stands for. Take that down and you see the society collapse. That's what the Italians were trying to do. And this takes us to World War II. So this is why World War II, Libya became a battleground, okay, for between occupying Italians and the Allies. You all remember Mussolini at that time. So in 1943, Libya was liberated from the Italian control, and the country was governed by— who governed the country after it was liberated from the Italians? Do you guys know? Does anybody know? And I'm gonna, uh, it was another colonial power that took over. Does anybody know? After, after, after it was liber— liberated from the Italians. Oh, Karakulak, you got it! You got it! David King, you got it! Hanging G, you got it! It was the Brits. And once again, guys, I just— I know this might sound dry or whatever, but it's very, very important to understand, to tie that history into the current geopolitical shifts that's taking place. And countries, Russia in this case, will have to think strategically into understanding its role in that part of the, of the continent, but how it will end up influencing the global affairs at large. And, and we'll get into, uh, uh, detail as we move forward. Now, here is one question for you also. What year did Libya gained its independence? Let me see in the chat box. I like engage you guys, part of the, uh, Let me see, uh, yeah, one year, Francis Tango. No, before that, D Foss. Before that, David, uh, Nimba Fashion. He got it 1951, was December, as a matter of fact, December 24th, 1951. That's when it became independent. And also, uh, right after that they joined the Arab states to obtain independence after World War II. And that's where Idris— he was named Idris I— was proclaimed as the king. Remember, used to be a kingdom back then. So who sought to modernize the country. However, what happened in 1969, a coup occurred. Because what happened during the '60s in the Arab world, Syria, Egypt, uh, Jordan, uh, uh, Libya, what, uh, and all of them is the, the coups that took place from the military into the leadership. That's when, and that's when Muammar Gaddafi was a former military, came to power. So, so, and you all know what happened, civil war, uh, start in 2011, and you all know the rest. I'm not going to detail this. I will provide you the link, uh, to all this one later on as we move forward. So, uh, let me say thank you to Fred Ball. Thank you very much for your super sticker. You wrote, thanks for your analysis. I agree with most of your content respectfully, except I think that China is too passive militarily to help Iran, for example. I appreciate your opinion, and, and I see your point also. Because China also will have to be very calculating as far as its strategy. It's because no country, no matter what, no country wants to drag itself into a war. I mean, I'll give you a quick example. Look at us. Do we go into a war or we go into a war by proxies? So I see your point, Fred, and I am glad you shared this one. What do you guys think of Fred's comments? You can comment on his, respectfully of course, and we just— that's how we further the conversation. So, so thank you very much, Fred, appreciate you. All right, let's get into our analysis here. So, so I had a chance to read, and again, as part of this geostrategic aspects of it. So first of all, you move from Tartus into Libya? Well, because Libya is thinking— I'm sorry, Russia is thinking strategically in this case. And I'm going to share some images, pictures that I have. This is why Russians will have to move their, their, their assets into this. Why? Because the Russians are also considering the possibility that it will not make any strategic sense for them to leave the Mediterranean just because of logistical difficulties or whatever. No, no, they're gonna have to figure out a way to make it happen. So, and this is why, uh, sort of, uh, the movement of Russia's assets, both naval and air from Syria is to sort of prevent its asset from being targeted. And also, this is going to now represent a worst case for Italy. Why Italy? Because that's the doorstep for NATO in that part of the— in that region of the world. So, and this is why you have to consider the possibilities of this. There was a great article by Professor Meral Sabri Al-Ashri. I have a picture. I looked her up and I'm— I read some of her work. Here's her picture here. She's a professor, uh, I believe in the University of Sheffield. So I, I couldn't agree more with her. So now When you think the current base in Libya, which is called Al-Qadiriya— Al-Qadabiya, I'm sorry, Al-Qadabiya base— which is now currently is undergoing some extensive, extensive renovations. And when we say extensive renovations, what are we talking about? We're talking about runways, we're talking about hangars, we're talking about fueling stations, and so forth. So And why is this? Is because this will reinforce the already, uh, forces present there. Now, it is the thing that has not been disclosed openly. The Russians have the presence of your— remember the— what was that, uh, group? Uh, uh, uh, Wagner, the group Wagner. They have about between 2,000 to— between the ones I got, between 2,500 to 5,000 personnel in Libya. That's not a coincidence. So because you think about strategically, and this is why we're talking about the geostrategic aspects of it, if you are a head of state, you're going to have to think about how you're going to expand, and not only expand but also strengthen your defensive capabilities. Like I said at the beginning, Africa is turning into a geopolitical ring which is gonna be seeing the competition getting even fierce between major players. Who are the major players? You got only 3. Can you guys name those 3? Who are those 3 major players? Let me just see in the chat box. Yeah, only 3. Okay, uh, Adam Rocco, you got, uh, US and China. You're missing one. Uh, oh, Hangin G, US, Russia, and, and, and China. Biden. Uh, you got it, you got it. Uh, OCEAN, you got it, you guys got it. The three main ones, you know. I am not excluding, I am not sort of thinking in terms of, well, what about the Brits? Well, the Brits is not a major power. The Brits are subservient to the US. What about France? France is not a major power. The France is subservient to the US. Uh, who else? Italy, Spain, who else? Canada, they all are subservient to the US. So when you think about the major, you got the three: US, Russia, and China, for that matter. And this is where Russians thinking in terms of we need not only expand but also strengthen our capabilities when it comes down to defensive area. So, and because Libya is geography where it is, provide the best strategic location for operations in Africa. So, and because it opens up now further access to countries the likes of in the Sahel— let me bring again the map, uh, just to put it in perspective. So when you think about the Sahel region, why this location in Libya, or more relocating the assets from Syria into Libya, is going to further provide Russia with access to countries like Sudan, Mali, Chad, and Central African Republic. And why those are important? Because if you know, there have been some talks between Russia and Sudan. Look where Sudan is, in Khartoum. Why is this important location? Access to the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean later. So if Russia— as you look at the map here, guys, when you look at Libya, if Russia is already stationed there, first they have access to the Mediterranean, then you will have access to Red Sea through either Eritrea or Sudan, then you have access to, uh, uh, uh, the Indian Ocean. Those are very, very, very important, very important locations for, uh, uh, for, for, uh, Russia. And that is why you have to consider the possibility of the importance of why a country will choose one particular one over another. Mind you, if you think about on, on the western side of Libya Algeria and Morocco and all that. You all know the tensions that exist between Morocco and Algeria. So China is betting its, uh, it's hedging its bet that the possibility— and I say word in quote— the possibility of a confrontation between Morocco and Algeria, the possibility is there at some point. Because you already saw the tensions now that exist between Algeria and France. France now is courting certain countries in Africa to woo them back to allow France to exist because that game, that, that era is gone for France. So, uh, Russia is coming in because of the access to this region. And what this region share in common, they all of them kicked France out, ask the US to leave, and the They put an alliance between the three, Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso. The three of them put an alliance and it's gonna go into security soon. And this is where Russia comes in. China comes in, in infrastructure. Russia comes in, in the military. And because those countries in the Sahel region have access to natural resources, including uranium, iron ore, uh, oil, you got it, gold and so forth. So it's a strategic move. And when you look at the map, once again, when you look at where Sudan is, when you look at where Eritrea is, why do you think BRICS admitted Eritrea into this? Why do you think Russia was discussing with Sudan? And we are trying to prevent that from happening because they're going to have access to the Red Sea. Very, very crucial. And this brings us to talk about one particular location also that is very, very important. Well, first of all, you have to understand the, uh, back in the '50s when Libya and the former Soviet Union, USSR, sort of, uh, the latter established some military presence in 1955, all the way back then. So, and that's when the diplomatic relations between, uh, Soviet Union, or USSR at that time, Moscow and Tripoli, uh, began on in 1995. So this is where in 1991, what happened in 1991, the fall of the Soviet Union, Libya right away recognized Russia uh, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, right away, immediately. So because they didn't want to sort of waste time into all this. And that is the importance of understanding why, uh, uh, that part of, uh, uh, Africa will make perfect sense. Now I asked you a question at the beginning: is this aimed at NATO? Makes perfect sense. Why is this? I am going to show you the map once again. And why am I showing you the map? Because I want you to look at west here in Mauritania. I know you can't see my cursor, I'm pointing at it. Look at where the Atlantic Ocean— look at where Mauritania is. What did NATO end up doing there? Was establishing some security training for Mauritanian forces. Why the heck NATO is going to Mauritania for? You got my point. It's because one way or another, the West does not want to lose Africa permanently. This is why, uh, Biden, uh, they, uh, went to Africa for his last trip. It went to none other than Angola. What the heck would you go to Angola for? You don't even know what part of the world you're in. So it's only to tell you strategically that, that what the US is hoping for is to maintain some presence of sort, some influence of sort. But it's not going to work because Africa is seeing where, for example, when it goes with China, the developments, when it goes with Russia, is military training and strength. But those countries are not taking advantage of their resources. And mind you, Russia is not dumb. Russia also has to think about its own strategic aspects of it, uh, strategic interest. I'm sorry. And this one takes me to talk about the economic aspects of it. Why the economic aspects of it is because, uh, I had one picture of, uh, Darnell's. I don't know how many of you are familiar with Darnell. I thought I had a picture. Yeah, I do, I do. Picture right here, Dardanelles. Very, very crucial. Why is that important? This is why Russia is also aiming at having presence in the Mediterranean, gives it at least access to the Dardanelles Strait, because that one goes into the Black Sea. You all know the Russian fleet in the Black Sea. They won't want to be encircled by hostile forces from either through Aegean Sea or Dardanelles or Marmara in that case. Why? Because Turkey. Turkey is NATO member. So Russia will have to ensure at least some presence in the, on the Mediterranean Sea with some advanced systems. So And this is why the Russians counting on this guy. This is Haftar, who's the one who took over during the fall of the, uh, the, uh, after the, the passing of Gaddafi, and he took control of certain parts of Libya. He was in Moscow, I think, about a few months ago, and the Russians have been supporting him, uh, and, and that is where things stands. So it's very, very important, uh, So I, I got an image, a satellite one, of the Russian, uh, base in Tartus to see as it was evacuated. So let me share it with you guys just for you to see. Right here. Yeah, this is the Tartus base. That's the one you're looking at. So you don't see much there anymore. So they have, uh, and I just got this picture recently. So, so So now let's move into the economic aspects of it. So why economic matters also in the geopolitical calculations of Russia? No, not that Russia needs Libya's energy. No, but what is Libya? Uh, uh, Libya is a member of which organization regarding oil? Once again, just to have you part of the conversation, guys. I just want you to be part of the conversation. So, uh, OPEC. Alistan, you got it. OPEC, the Oil Producers and Exporting Countries. Well, Libya joined in 1962. That's when it became part of it. So, and of course, uh, let me show you a picture of OPEC. I mean, you know what OPEC looks like, but just, uh, uh, and it became part of the club that had about 14 countries as of 2021. Some countries left OPEC, by the way. So those clubs includes Algeria, Angola, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, the Republic of Congo, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Venezuela. Uh, uh, Ecuador Indonesia, Qatar, were— they were former OPEC members. That's why they left. Now you may ask yourself, why does this matter? It matters because the Libyan crude is considered sweet. To those who understand oil, you know what I'm talking about. In oil, there is what we call sweet oil. Sweet oil means it does not need a lot of refineries or refinement. The oil we have in the US, you know, we produce a lot of oil that is so dirty. They call it dirty because it needs a lot of refinement. Libya doesn't. So which means what? Saving, uh, cost savings. Second thing, look at the map once again. Look where Libya is, look where Europe is. This is why the Libyan oil— when I say oil, petroleum— is used for jet engines in Europe. Europe depends a lot on oil from Libya. The whole reason for why we took that, we took Gaddafi out, and we kind of— the moment he mentioned about transacting oil in other currency We put the two and two together and said, you better take care of it now. So we encourage whatever we encouraged, including the groups inside Libya. And that's what the attack on Benghazi happened. So because oil, Europe depends on, uh, on, uh, on oil from Libya. So if we are to think about why Russia will have to consider that, because Russia is part of what? OPEC+. What is OPEC+? OPEC+ is an organization of crude oil producers which is the 13 members, okay, but you add to them 11 non-OPEC members. So, so you have the 14 OPEC, then you have the OPEC+, and the OPEC+ countries include Azerbaijan, which turns out to be the one providing oil for Israel in its war in Gaza. Then you have Bahrain, Brunei, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Mexico, Oman, Russia, of course, South Sudan, and Sudan. Now you see why Russia was talking to Sudan about establishing a base over there. Now, from an economic perspective, Russians thinking about it in terms of influencing OPEC+ oil prices moving forward, because remember, if OPEC+ said we are not increasing production, what that's going to do to the global economy or energy, which is exactly what just happened. OPEC not OPEC Plus, OPEC. During their last meeting, they decided— as a matter of fact, OPEC and OPEC Plus, both of them decided not to increase capacity. They're gonna keep it as is. And this is the strategic— from an economic perspective, the strategic move of the Russians, thinking to hit two birds with one stone. One is geostrategic, location one, Second one is economic. So, and with China being in Africa, with now you get countries in the Sahel region— let me put the map up here— with the Sahel region really getting rid of the colonialism or imperialism there and now trying to refocus their attentions internally in developing their economies and taking advantage of their own resources. China in this case mainly China, not Russia, but China has the capacity to help them build the infrastructure they need. And that is the reason why the decision was made by the Russians to move to Libya but not Algeria. I do foresee— put in my geopolitical analyst hat— I do foresee the possibility of another military presence in Algeria, of Russia there. Just my instincts telling me that's where I see things moving forward. Otherwise, if you consider why, for example, Morocco made the arrangements with China regarding the investments and so forth, because Morocco saw what Algeria did with both countries, Russia and China. Tunisia, what it did with China. Egypt, what it did with both China and Russia. China in joining, uh, Russia and China BRICS, but also in cutting two deals, one with China and one with Russia. In Russia— with the Russian was about the military, with China was about economics, because Egypt is in a hole economically speaking, with massive debt. But again, the corruption that exists, and of course it's not just in Egypt, it exists in Tunisia, it exists in Morocco, it exists in Algeria. I mean, you think about Morocco, for example, Their prime minister, if you only know the corruption that guy is involved in, which I found out way back when I traveled to Morocco about a year ago or so. The prime minister, you know what he was doing? Buying oil from Russia and reselling it to Moroccans at a double or three times the price. You all know how I handle corruption, right? How I will deal with it. That's what needs to be done. So when I say corruption, I'm referring to on a larger scale. So, so that is my point for what I wanted to share with you, just to put things in perspective for you to understand why countries make certain decisions is strategic. You know, Russia is already under pressure dealing with Ukraine and, and, and, and with what just happened with the assassination of the, uh, uh, uh, their general Uh, in Moscow, that is big. To me, it was like, wait a minute, if you have something the equivalency of TNT getting into the country, this cannot enter through borders. There is no way. There is no way. So that's why, if you guys want me to do a live stream on it, just let me know and I'll be happy to do it. Before I forget, once again, for those who just joined us, maybe late, Uh, uh, please remember to subscribe, and I appre— I appreciate it, guys, if you hit the like button, because I want to reach 100,000 by the end of the year. If you can help me out with this, I will be very grateful to you. All right, that's all I have to share with you. I hope you find it very informative. And let me see, uh, once again, I need to say thank you to Rafael once again. Uh, Rafael, thank you, man. I appreciate you. I believe the next move gonna be a joint air and naval base in Iran. You know what, Rafael? I won't be surprised. I wrote about it 4 years, 5 years ago after the trip of a high-ranking Chinese military general to Tehran. I wrote about it, and of course I was told at that time in the comments, oh no, Mr. O, Dr. O, you're wrong, there is no way. I say, okay, time will tell. You know, you kind of respect people's opinion, and I don't mind if they— you don't have— they don't have to agree with me, of course. But, and here we are, so I won't be surprised. And what I wrote back then will be the equivalency of the US base in Qatar. Remember how Qatar is doing things behind the scenes? That's why these Muslim countries, when they talk about we need to negotiate about ceasefire in Gaza, whatever, they care less for Gaza. Hypocrisy of the highest order. Shame on them. So anyway, thank you all for being here, guys. Uh, for those who wants to support the channel, I will be very grateful to you. Here is a link if you want to support the channel. I would be very grateful to you. And as you know, I don't have, uh, funding coming from whatever. I do this on my own, so I will greatly appreciate it. Uh, also, where is that? For those who are interested in purchasing my books, there's that one, the link for it. So, all right guys, let me now, uh, let me see in the chat box if you want me to do, uh, what just happened in Russia, if you want a detail about this one. Oh man, Mass 2020, you're most welcome. Zhaoyang, you are most welcome. So now we have a great, great community, guys. I'm very, very proud of all of us. You know, it's kind of— your kind words mean a lot to me, guys, and I read your comments. Sometimes a kind word can go a long way, really. I mean it. So, so thank you very much, Z. Thank you so much. Truly appreciate you. So all of you. So anyway, I'm gonna do a survey for you guys. And, uh, and the, uh, see which, uh, uh, topic you would like me— I'm gonna do, uh, recorded for Canada and Germany, but for Russia, if you want a live stream, I will be happy to do it. So indeed, Ivana, I agree with you, it is great chat group here, very respectful, very engaging intellectually, and that's what this is all about. So And, and we look out after each other. I can't watch everything like a cop here. Ain't my job to do that, and I don't want to do that because I, you know, we trust the community here, and they will be able to know if they notice anything offline of, of whatever. They'll, they'll say something, or, and I see a comment. So, so we have a wonderful community. I'm very grateful to, to have them here. So, so, all right guys, As, as I mentioned, uh, I am gonna do as many videos because I'm gonna take off for about a week, and, uh, I'll put the survey for you this afternoon, and we go from there. I greatly appreciate you being here, and as always, remember, geopolitics impacts your daily life in more ways than one. Till next time, guys. Bye-bye.