In this Geopolitical Trends video, host David Oualaalou examines recent Russian military activity that he interprets as a warning to the West. He notes that, amid the battle for Kherson, President Vladimir Putin personally supervised strategic nuclear deterrence exercises, including a simulated nuclear strike and the launch of an ICBM (Sineva) from the submarine Tula in the Barents Sea. Oualaalou links these drills to Ukraine’s request for U.S.‑provided medium‑range missiles, arguing that Russia’s drills are a direct response to that potential threat. He also discusses Russian claims that Ukraine may be preparing a dirty bomb, the IAEA’s inspection of Kyiv, and Zelensky’s accusations that Russia uses Iranian drones. The video explains Russia’s anti‑access/area‑denial (A2/AD) doctrine, emphasizing that Russia aims to deter Western aerospace operations and signals willingness to employ all nuclear platforms—strategic, non‑strategic, and conventional—to protect its interests. Oualaalou concludes by asking viewers whether Russia will resort to tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
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Hello everyone and welcome to Geopolitical Trends. My name is David Oualaalou. So good to be with you guys. Now, looks like Russia is preparing for something big. So in this video, I'm gonna provide you my analysis as to what's going on, given that I wrote something about this in my book, Russia book. So as I'm kind of familiar with now with the, shall we say, the tactics or the strategy of Russia so far, because It fits the narrative that I wrote about. But before I launch into this, please make sure to subscribe and hit the notification button so you will be notified every time I upload a new video. And I thank you, of course, for your support. It means a lot to me. As the battle for Kherson is underway, because the Russian-speaking population has evacuated the city, Putin oversaw the strategic bombers participating in a nuclear exercise. And that's what I said, is something big about to happen? That's usually what I'm leaning towards. This is something about tactical about to happen. So the Russian President Vladimir Putin has, has warned that the prospect for a conflict in the world and the region remain very, very high. After he personally— and this is the big thing I want you to get, guys— after he personally supervised nuclear exercises. It's no small matter. So in a speech that was delivered during, I believe, a couple days ago during the meeting of head of the security agencies in the Commonwealth of Independent States, which usually includes former Soviet Republic, Putin said, and I quote, let me get you the quote here, guys. So I quote him correct. The world is— and I quote here— Putin said, the world is changing towards a multipolar world, but there are countries trying to maintain their dominance in various ways, noting that sabotage is among those methods, as it happened with Nord Stream pipelines, end of quote. So you can just read between the lines whom he's referring to or which country he's referring to, and we all know he's referring to the United States. Straightforward. So, but I'm not here to talk about this. I'm here to talk about the nuclear deterrence exercises, because that's what it is. So Putin— because here's the, here's the thinking that goes on. Putin already realized now that Ukraine as having lost its sovereignty, basically, which is true. And it is under the direct control of the United States. This is why Ukraine cannot negotiate with the Russians unless the US allows it. Britain, so-so, but it's the US that decides on this. So this is why you have to put these exercises within the context, you know. And this is why, again, Putin has seen personally those exercises of the strategic nuclear deterrence forces, which include basically simulating— this is a simulation— but includes an intensive— get this, guys— an intensive nuclear strike in response to a missile strike. So what's the message here? The message is that that Ukraine has been asking the West for medium-range missiles from the US. The US said that possibility we might support Ukraine or provide this to Ukraine. Russia is conducting those simulations in response to that. If Ukraine gets those missiles and Russian cities are targeted, or the new location, the new 4 regions that Russia annexed then they're gonna react. And this is exactly the intent. That's the message Russia is sending to the West. So for its part, the Kremlin has said that the missiles— and, and, and, uh, realize I'm not saying a missile— missiles, uh, that have been fired during the exercises have hit their targets. The Kremlin also explained that the strategic bombers were used during this exercise or exercises. This is to emphasize that the strategic bombers, uh, are part of this particular strategy that Putin is putting into place. So the Russian president himself supervises these exercises, as I said, of this nuclear deterrence. Because here's the thing, nuclear deterrence, as I disclosed in the Russia book. You know, this usually, it includes forces on the land, sea, and the air. That's what the Russian nuclear deterrence is all about. It includes all three platforms, and I detailed this in the book. And confirmed, of course, the Russian president— there is confirmed that the— I'm sorry, the Kremlin confirms that the exercises also saw the launch of a ballistic missile through the air-based system and winged missile. Those are the systems platform by which you— Russia uses this kind of missiles during exercises. And Russia yesterday also renewed its warning that Ukraine could use a dirty bomb. And again, This is what Russia is saying. We're not going to jump to conclusions here. Once you see the facts, but I don't see the rationale as to why Russia will make this up because it's not known in a way that something of this magnitude, because a dirty bomb is no small matter either. So, and the Kremlin spokesperson said that Kiev was preparing for an attack using the dirty bomb. No, I'm sure, uh, we're gonna be watching carefully. Uh, interesting enough is that the representative of the IAEA, the International Atomic Energy Agency, already went to Kyiv to figure out if those statements have any accuracy to them or not. On the other side of the argument Uh, Zelensky, uh, also renewed his accusation that Russia has used Iranian drones to strike civilian targets in Ukraine. Well, are you gonna take Zelensky at his sort of— for his statements at face value? We all know Zelensky tends to lie a little bit, you know, and we also— that the bombing of certain locations where the Russian-speaking people are. And I'm not here to defend anybody here. I am here to provide you the facts to the best of my knowledge and let you reach your own conclusion. So if we are to believe Zelensky, that will be a problem. So, so Russia, Russia Defense Ministry also showed images, you know, on their website, and I took a look at those, saw images of the launch of the Sineva And Sineva is a Russian intercontinental ballistic missile, an ICBM. And here is the surprising aspects of it. It wasn't launched from a land base. It was launched from a submarine called Tula, which is in the Barents Sea. That is very, very interesting. So my insights into why all of a sudden Putin himself overseeing the military, nuclear military exercises, simulation that is. Well, because here's the thing, addressing Russia's military structure gives you a snapshot of Russia's overall military thinking regarding anticipated areas of conflict. And they are preparing this because that's their military, part of their military doctrine. Because the potential challenges and also security threat to Russia. And that's how I always say, you know, place things within the context of what it means given where the trends are headed. So placing Russia's military assets within the context of its global strategy regarding this issue of Ukraine is paramount because without it, we won't be able to understand of why all of a sudden Russia is embarking on simulations using nukes. No, and this is why I place these exercises within the context of Russia's military doctrine. Anti— there is one thing that is called, and I'm gonna just talk about it briefly, briefly here, it's called anti-access area denial. It is known in military jargon as A2/AD. That's usually how we refer to it in the Pentagon. So what is this anti-access area denial all about? Well, basically, at its core, this principle, which combines long-range anti-air, anti-ship, anti-land missile systems, you know, and that's how it's known in the military jargon. You know, those are the capabilities which basically it denies an adversary or an enemy the opportunity to operate in a specific region or area. Once again, this is what I'm saying. Look where the missile, the ICBM, was launched from. It was not launched from the land, from a land base. It was launched from the submarine. So in this context, embarking on an A2/AD, which is the, the doctrine, the principal doctrine for Russia, uh, principle, Russia sends a strong message to the West that it seeks not only to deter the West from using aerospace, anything in its vicinity of Russia, but also to convince the West that Moscow will not hesitate to use— and get this— its nuclear deterrence, including all its platform: conventional, non-strategic nuclear, and strategic nuclear forces to defend its interest. So this is where I see the message of this military, uh, nuclear exercises that President Putin himself oversaw, because it's no small matter. So, and that's why I couldn't wait to come on the air here to share this with you. So, so here's my question for you: will Russia use tactical nukes in Ukraine, given what I just told you? Will Russia use tactical nukes in Ukraine? Make sure to leave me some comments and I will respond. As always, remember, geopolitics impacts your daily life in more ways than one. Till next time, guys. Bye-bye.
