Saudis Suddenly Ask Iran for Naval Drills in Red Sea BUT WHY? Can They Be Trusted?

All right, hello everybody and welcome to Geopolitical Trends, where truth matters. Excited to be with you once again. I know, just had our conversation last night with, uh, uh, Jerry and Fernando. So, uh, today I got an interesting topic for you, uh, something I am very, very, very familiar given that I wrote book on each country, Saudi Arabia and Iran, uh, but there is a fundamental question as to really, really what's behind this request from Saudi Arabia to Iran to conduct a nuclear— I'm sorry, naval drills. Naval drills. So, so this is what I'm going to be providing you, my own analysis, and I'll answer any super sticker towards the end. But first, let me see who is here. Yesterday. All right, Karakulak, I'm gonna start with you. What happened yesterday, man? So I do expect everyone in the community to be respectful to my guests. So I'm assuming I, I have to read the transcript in its entirety to see exactly what happened. So usually for my guests to react that way, something must be said that wasn't appropriate. So So I can't get on to that yet till I read the script. So anyway, uh, I know where the community is and I appreciate you always, guys, maintaining that kind of respect for, for the guests. So, all right, JD, good to see you here. Uh, good to see you. Hope I pronounce it correctly. Uh, Ardigo, good to see you as always. Never trust Saudi, Saudi Arabia. Ah, You got a point there, Art. Uh, Dave H, Willie Holman as always, Hamed City, uh, Truth Seeker as always, Advent, uh, Salam alaykum also. That's— he wrote in Arabic. This is a SATS, it's a SATS program. You write English with Arabic, or you write Arabic with English letters. So, uh, Wonky C, good to see you. Uh, Karakolak from Central Florida. Uh, Dambisa Mayu, good to see you. Army with Harmony, Alice Talokin, good to see you. Part-Time Tanker, good to see you from my neighbor city Houston. YT, John Smith as always, uh, uh, Bobby, Eric Hodel, Francis Tango as always, Timeline Dunkley, good to see you. And Barry. All right, let's get into that one. And, uh, where is Kara Kolak? Uh, offended by one of my comments. Okay, I'm gonna take a look at that, Kara. I mean, I know who you are, man, by now. I know you've always been respectful in the comments, whatever. It's just I was surprised yesterday and I didn't have enough time to read through that. But anyway, we'll get into that some other time. Nonetheless, we all— you all know, guys, where this community stands for. So that's the whole idea. Speaking of community, I am gonna be thinking about— I'll run it by you guys later on in, in few weeks from now, if not, uh, 2 or 3 months, about my— maybe my upcoming trip next year to China again. And I'm gonna go to the other side. So if the community would like to support that trip, I will be happy to do it. Uh, and I'm gonna go physically and see with my own eyes. So we'll talk details as, uh, if I make the decision on that. And there's a lot, a lot of moving parts into all this. So let's start first with the key questions that I need you to consider as we move forward. Why did the— why did the KSA, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, requested from Iran to do the bilateral naval drills in the Red Sea? Remember, this is going to be just between Iran and Saudi Arabia. It's not the, uh, recently in Oman there were some, uh, uh, drills including Russia, India, and Iran. Those are separate from that, and I think Saudi Arabia participated in that. Second question is, why now? Why at this time? So, and the third question, which I don't shy away from saying it, you know, it's like my own government here in US, can they be trusted? Simple as that. So I, I mean, those questions we ought to ask. And as I said again, uh, I spent a few years doing research on each country. Uh, this one here, Volatile State: Iran in the Nuclear Age, that was about Iran. I did the same research, uh, regarding Saudi Arabia, and I wrote the book about them in addition to spending time. So I do have some background. And just for those who might not know my background, maybe it's first time here, you never know. Let me just share with you a little bit about my background and what qualifies me to do both speak and write on geopolitical, uh, matters, and especially when it comes down to the Middle East. So I worked in the field, military, on the military side and the civilian side, uh, civilian capacity, that is, for over a decade, you know. It was part of the— some special ops stuff, but also he was on the diplomatic side. So I speak Arabic and French fluently, okay? I understand the dynamics of the Middle East, and I grasp the depth of its social cultural interactions and know from both abstract and practical perspective how the region internal politics work. This is why I had to ask the question, why all of a sudden the Saudis asking Iranians for naval drills? So, so in my opinion, this firsthand experience is necessary. Why? Because it offers the most significant analysis one can do. And this is exactly what I'm going to be sharing with you. And also to put it in perspective for you, how the change on, of, on the geopolitical landscape now is forcing all parties, meaning regional countries and global powers, to go back to the drawing board. This is what I need you to understand about my qualifications as to what, uh, uh, what qualifies me to talk about these, uh, two countries, Saudi Arabia and Iran. And by the way, uh, to those who might be interested in reading some of those books, here is the link If you want to get a copy of those books and you can read it, and I'll be happy to answer any questions. Some of you already got a copy of the book and sent me a question or two. I do remember Army with Harmony sent me one. Uh, Hank is already reading the book, so I'll be happy to answer those questions for you later on. So, but let's get into this conversation now, or this analysis that is, you know Iran and Saudi Arabia will take part in further joint military exercises in the Red Sea. Location is also very, very crucial. Why is this important? It's because with the announcement of the Houthis just two days ago that they attacked a US naval vessels, including the aircraft carrier. Now, the Pentagon denied this report on my To me, why will the Houthis lie about something like this? Now, could they? Possibly, possibly not. But again, we've seen before when they attacked those, uh, the, the oil, uh, tankers, they weren't lying about it. So what will make the Houthis lie about targeting the US? It's because the US launched a B-52 and targeted certain locations in Sa'dah, north of Yemen. So I don't see the reason why will they lie. But I do see the reason why the Pentagon will have to deny something like this or contradict it, because the optics. So, but here's the important thing about Iran and Saudi Arabia, where those naval drills will be conducted in the Red Sea. So, and the Gulf of Aden, that is. And this aimed to growing warning ties between, uh, warming— I'm sorry, not warning, warming Ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia, you know, they are considered rival, uh, rivals. But now, thanks to China, who broke the deal last year, and, uh, between these two, uh, arch enemies— of course, we didn't like the outcome that China broke the deal, because for us, we wanted to maintain the tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran, Shia dominant versus Sunni dominant. It works to our benefit selling more weapons. Basically, that's what it was. So, and this is where I'm gonna be providing you this analysis. And once again, for those who might want to have a question or two answers, just put them on the Super Sticker and I'll answer those for you. So, so this developments, which in my opinion put a little bit of shakeup in into the alliances that exist in the Middle East, that's normal. I mean, whoever thought that Saudi Arabia and, and Iran will be conducting joint military exercise? Even when I wrote the books, I didn't see this coming because it was like far from reality. Because the realities at that time were, you know, even though I left the door open a little bit, the possibility— because especially when I mentioned about Saudi Arabia going down and Iran going up, meaning flexing its military and economic or ideological muscles in the region. Because Iran is a major power in the region, there is no denial about it. We know it, we in the US knows it, Middle Eastern countries knows it, other major powers knows that at all, including Russia and China. And this is why both of those countries are supporting Iran, that is. So, so now Saudi Arabia and Iran have planned to conduct joint military exercises in the Red Sea, and this, in my opinion, raised some sort of eyebrows, you know, the timing of it. Of course, the election of President Trump, and what did Trump told the Saudis back then? You have to pay up if you want us to defend you. Trump also, a president-elect, uh, told also the Iranian, we're gonna pull out of the JCPOA back then. And now he intends to move forward with even harsh, uh, some sort of economic sanctions. Look no further than who he is considering appointing as a Secretary of State— another warmonger, Marco Rubio. So now Will Marco Rubio be better than Tony Blinken? I'll say yes, because you give credit where credit is due. Marco Rubio served on certain, uh, uh, uh, Foreign Relations Committee in the Senate, has an understanding of foreign, foreign affairs to a degree. Does he possess the depth of understanding what geopolitics is all about? I'll let you make your own decision on that. I almost had a chance to work with him on one particular project way back when I was still in the government. Things didn't pan out, and I kind of didn't care, uh, but it was just one of those opportunities. So, uh, I do not see him fit for that position because Secretary of State is not about fomenting more wars. No, Secretary of State is what we call a chief diplomat. You have to understand how to balance when to cooperate, when to stand firm. I'm not denying that you need to stand firm on certain issues, but war is never the, the result or the, the, the solving any problems. As a matter of fact, for Rubio has two main sort of targets. Can you name who those two countries are? Let me just see in the chat box if you can name. There are two countries If you know his history of his statements, you will be able to pinpoint who those two countries are. Oh, Dambisa, Dambisa Mayo, you wrote in Arabic, atahiyat min, uh, min, uh, min Gambia. Yeah, greetings from Gambia, that's what it is. Good to see you. So, uh, let me see what you guys wrote. Two countries. And that's why I consider him a hawk, neocon. There's no other. Oh, oh, Cuba, you got it. Cuba, part-time tanker. Russia is included in that, banana. As much— not as much as Iran and China. So Venezuela, of course, because remember, he's the one— he meaning Rubio— was pushing on more sanctions on Cuba. Yeah, just remember that. That's what I'm saying. He's not qualified for that position, in my opinion. And again, as a matter of fact, I had an interview this morning with Ken Brew. Ken Brew is a conservative talk show here in the US from Midwest, and he even said, Dr. O, would you be interested in becoming a Secretary of State? And I said, no, thank you, I'm not. He said, I'll be happy to make some phone calls to senators and and, or even Trump himself. I said, no, I'm, I'm not interested, thank you very much. My point, I, I know, even though it was a joke, whatever that was, you, when you are as chief diplomats, you have to possess that understanding of, of how to manage relations with other countries. Force doesn't work anymore. We look at what we achieved in Afghanistan, what we achieved in Iraq, what we achieved in Yemen. Nothing, nothing. And even go back to the Vietnam War, to the Korean War, we fomented all this for what? So, and that's why I say so. Now, to put this in perspective with our topic of Saudi Arabia and Iran, it makes you just think about why the Saudis all of a sudden reaching out. And as a matter of fact, he was the Saudi, uh, uh, what's his name, Lieutenant General I have his picture here. I got some pictures for you guys to share. This is Lieutenant General Fayyad bin Hamid bin— it got a long, long name here— uh, bin Raghad al-Rouaili. That's, that's his name. So he's the one who took a trip to Iran. And by the way, I give credit here to Getting Image for this picture, to Yasser Al Ziyad. You got to give credit where credit is due. So, so he went to Iran, and as a matter of fact, the head of the, uh, uh, uh, the head of the Navy in Iran, uh, uh, uh, his name is Admiral Shahram Irani. Here is his picture right here. This is the head of the, the Iranian Navy, and he stated, and I quote, Saudi Arabia has asked that we organized joint exercises in the Red Sea, end of quote. He's, by the way, the commander of the Iran Navy, just to highlight to you. No, so now, uh, this is a picture from the, uh, one of the Iranian Navy that participated in the Maritime Security Belt Exercises 2024. You remember the ones that took place, uh, uh, in, in Oman, I believe, with the Russia. India was there. I don't know what India was doing there. Makes me just wonder what prompt, uh, these countries to extend an invitation to India. I mean, nothing against that, it's just, it's very odd that the exercises with, uh, uh, in that part of the world. And yes, I understand if you look at geography, you look at the Indian Ocean and so forth, but India, uh, it will be I, I don't know. I, I don't know because I did look, uh, more into this. What I can mention now, that Iranians have announced that, uh, uh, uh, Iran and Saudi Arabia are set to hold further joint naval exercises in the Red Sea. So now if you look at it from geopolitical aspect, the first thing is going to come to mind was, are they strengthening their military alliances? Not necessarily. Just doing exercises doesn't mean we're gonna now forge a military alliance. Not necessarily. Where the question we ought to ask, at least for me, and it's becoming clear— I could be wrong, but to me that's what a sort of a seasoned analyst will have to go with— you don't follow the crowd per se. You don't follow what everybody else is saying, saying. They might not be thinking that, but again, they are who they are, I am who I am. The way I think about things is for a reason. The way I see it, why Saudi Arabia reached out— it could be even before you know it that the US has asked Saudis to reach out to Iran to conduct naval drills to see what the capabilities of Iran are. So in other words, Saudi Arabia will be playing both sides to please its master and also to discover what naval capabilities Iran has. Now remember, anytime they are naval drills, most countries don't show up what they have because it will be— it won't be a smart thing to do that. You just conduct exercises normal. But you don't disclose the up, up-to-date technology or types of, uh, uh, developments, whatever. Look at it like what just took, took place in China with the air show, okay? Did China ever talked about their J-35 stealth fighter before? No, they kept quiet about it till due time, and this— that's where they showed their J35. And I'll, I'll address this later on as I move forward. So this is to me what prompted me the moment I found out about the visit of the Lieutenant General Fayyad to Iran. Makes me just think, because only two weeks ago— it's not even two weeks, hold on, let me see the calendar here. Uh, one, two, yes, almost two weeks ago Saudi dropped their full membership from BRICS under pressure from the US. Why all of a sudden you will go and join forces with Iran knowing the tensions that exist between Iran and the United States? That just doesn't add up. It doesn't add up. And like I said, again, as one who wrote a book on each country, on Iran and Saudi Arabia, I had to delve deeper into understanding these dynamics. And I bet you the location of where the drills will be conducted, the Red Sea, that's to me another, uh, uh, sort of, uh, hint into this is something doesn't sound right. Those are images from the Houthis during the, uh, uh, March when Ismail Haniya was targeted by Israel. But you all know what the Saudis did to the Houthis, but they couldn't defeat them. Right. And we were providing, by the way, which I was aware of, it's not classified, I'll share it with you. We were providing intelligence and targets to the Saudis. As a matter of fact, it was even a request by the Saudis for our pilots to fly the planes to target this stuff. That's why Saudis can't do a squad on their own. I've argued in the Iran book, and even I think if I'm not mistaken, I mentioned something in the Saudi book. That if a war breaks out between Iran and Saudi Arabia, Iran will run over Saudi Arabia in no time because Iran is stronger militarily than the Saudis. So the Red Sea makes me just wonder why all of a sudden in that particular part, because the Houthis still control the Red Sea. And as I mentioned, they announced that they attacked a US naval, including an aircraft carrier. Pentagon denied that. You know, will I trust the Pentagon? No. You know, will I trust the government? No. Straightforward. So, and, uh, but on the other hand, if we are to look at the big picture, let's go with the arguments that this is a cooperation, uh, buildup between Iran and Saudi Arabia, which is good in a sense because The Middle East, or West Asia, that is, is changing fundamentally. You know, could it be that the Saudis wanted to sort of, uh, you know what, we better— because Saudis are in precarious position politically speaking. Because here's the thing, guys, just think, think ahead. When Trump is inaugurated, what will be his first order of business regarding the Middle East? West Asia, or Iran for that matter. Because I won't be surprised that both Israel and the United States are on the same sheet of music regarding the targeting of Iran. Now Saudis, on the other hand, when you look at this announcement, okay, the Saudis asking Iran for joint— if you only go a year ago, Saudis were on the verge of establishing diplomatic relations with Israel. Why the sudden flip? And this is again what I want you to get out of this. Don't fall for just because you hear news media saying, oh, the— there will be joint exercise. You have to understand what's behind all this. Of course, Saudis confirmed that it's, uh, uh, uh, even back at the Sea of Amman when— I wish I kept the map here. Let me see if I have a map, because I always keep a map of the region of the Middle East. But, uh, I might, I might not. But let's see this one if it shows up. Yeah, a little bit here. So here is at the bottom when you see Babylon, okay? You see the Red Sea right here. This is Jeddah. Alianbur, uh, this is Mecca and Taif and Abha and Jizan, uh, which by the way, all those locations right here in the south near Yemen, those are Shiite dominated. And this is again what prompts me to think about why all of a sudden they will conduct the— the Saudis requesting from the Iranians to conduct the drills in the Red Sea. Why not go to the Arabian Sea? Why not go to the Persian Gulf for that matter? Which I don't see that will happen in Persian Gulf because it's too narrow and, and Iranians won't do it for strategic reason. So, and if you are to think about the location, once again, this is exactly because of the tensions that exist right now between Hezbollah, Israel and Iran, and soon to be the United States will be involved if Marco Rubio is confirmed as Secretary of State. No, that's to me problematic. You look at also who is the next ambassador of the US to Israel, and I post this on the community, guys, if you can check it out there. So, so now, uh, you, you, you look at the recent drills that took place in the Sea of Oman between, uh, uh, India, Russia, and Oman, in addition to Iran, of course. And I think the Saudis participated in that as well. But this one is going to be just between the two, Iran and Saudi Arabia. And this is why I am leaning more towards the Saudis are not doing it for, uh, the sake of naval exercises. They could have done this with another country. They could have done it with the US. Why pick Iran? And I'm left with that consequence. I could be wrong, guys, but again, that's what I sense based on my understanding of the geopolitical dynamics that's taking place, is either they have been ordered by the US behind closed doors to seek out the capabilities, Iran's naval capabilities, because Iran does have major naval capabilities. Of course we're not going to admit that one, you know. As a matter of fact, uh, even, even to my knowledge, the Iranians have developed the certain type of, uh, uh, torpedoes that can take down, uh, an aircraft carrier, you know. But again, I have to think out loud here and just to share it. You reach your own conclusion, of course, uh, uh, uh, for that matter. This is, uh, I think an Iranian naval assets, that is. And here is the picture of the next soon-to-be US Ambassador to Israel. That's Mike Huckabee. He is an avid supporter of Israel. He's also been supported by AIPAC. So is Marco Rubio. Most of the funding for Marco Rubio comes from AIPAC because there's a lot of Jewish community in Florida. That's where he's from. And, and, and, and you guys get the idea of why— excuse me— why I am all of a sudden leaning towards that particular assumption as to why the Saudis, uh, will want to go that route. Because it just doesn't make any sense. Only 2 weeks ago you dropped from the BRICS completely after being extended an invitation. All of a sudden you dropping that the same day, uh, Tony Blinken, the Secretary of State, was in, in, in Riyadh. And all of a sudden you are about to ask Iran for naval drills because Iran ain't, ain't backing down regarding, uh, uh, the retaliation against Israel. They didn't forget that. It's just a matter of time. Remember, when it comes down to these issues, guys, you never ever— when I say you, I'm referring to a government here— never react emotionally. You have to do calculations, and those calculations are short and long-term calculations. Even a medium-term calculations will have to be included into all this. So, and this is when you look at all this within what's going on with the, with the US foreign policy especially when it comes down to West Asia, it is marked by inconsistencies. You know, I don't know, because that's how we dealt with the region. We fomented tensions between the Iraq-Iran war, we pushed for the invasion of Iraq, the civil war in Syria, the emergence of some terrorist groups, the chaos in Yemen, and the political and security instability that took place in, in, in Egypt. Which we were shocked when, uh, the, uh, what's his name, Hosni Mubarak, was toppled. Nobody. And it was the US and Saudi Arabia, and I know this for fact, that we gave the green light to what's his name, Sisi, to take over in a coup against the election of Mohamed Morsi, who passed away, I believe. So, so after all, this makes you think about American foreign policy end up affecting the everyday lives, uh, and security of the inhabitants of the region, meaning West Asia, that is. And this is why you're going to have to think in terms of this request by Saudi Arabia to Iran. I am sure you look at, you look at now the capitals in Jordan, in Turkey, in Egypt, in Iraq, in Lebanon, in Syria, uh, they are like thinking What the heck is going on? You know, is this about the really survival of the monarchy, which most of it centered around that? Is it about the US pressuring the Saudis to go ahead and do that? Because the Saudis will do what we tell them to do, despite what you see now. That conference that took place in Saudi Arabia about the Arab summits or Muslim summits for ceasefire in Lebanon and Gaza It's all hypes. If Arabs and Muslims leaders were really have some guts, they would have taken care of this a year ago. You don't wait 10 months or 12 or— yeah, and so many dead people. Yeah, you can't be playing with people's emotions here. And I think that this is what this is all about, in my opinion. So, so, and this is where you start to think about that rivalry that existed between Saudi Arabia. Remember, it still, it still exists. It's just hidden, hidden. Saudis are always concerned, and I will share, uh, an excerpt, uh, from my book with you to put this in perspective, uh, for you to have a better, better understanding. And this is where, as the region changes geopolitically speaking, The US is finding it very, very challenging to maintain its relevancy in the region. And that's why you're going to have to think in terms— what prompted, uh, the Saudis to request from the Iranians, hey, can we conduct, uh, joint naval drills? And by the way, we're going to do them— would like to do them in Red Sea. Yeah, I just, I just— something is not— I don't know. I've been around now. I feel comfortable saying I've been around long enough to know how certain countries act, especially when it comes down to, uh, uh, the Middle East, because I spend a lot of time, uh, uh, workwise and academically, uh, uh, focusing on that particular region. And all this comes on the heels of what China just conducted, uh, regarding its air show that is going on. Uh, this is a picture of Chinese J-10. There's a picture here, uh, their air show. And I give, uh, I give credit to, uh, Reuters, to a particular individual here by the name, uh, Tingxu Wang. That's, that's the picture. You, you, you give credit for that. Uh, what's interesting about the air show in, in China is that, uh, the Russians have sent two types of aircraft. One, it's the Su-35, which I have a picture of it right here. This is the Su-35, and they also sent the Su-57. Which is an upscale, very, very, very upscale. So remember that now the Chinese development of the J-35 is that it can detect F-35s of the US and F-22s. So which means what, guys? It means that the dominance of the US air power is no longer So I think the Chinese were sending a specific message here vis-à-vis Taiwan. It's not the message not to Taiwan, it's to the US, of course. But regarding that issue, it's because, like I mentioned last time, when I was in China, when I was in Taipei, during that same time, there were movements of US naval assets in South China Sea. So that's to me how I read it. You're gonna have to read it geopolitically. China doesn't need to say anything. China will just show what, what needs to show to send the message. The J-35, the Chinese J-35, it's a loud and clear message to the Americans. So now let me share something with you from, uh, uh, my book that I wrote. This one is from The, I believe, the Iranian book or the Saudi book. I couldn't even remember. Uh, no, I think it's from the Iran book. And, and as I, as I mentioned at the beginning, uh, to those who might not know, I wrote two, one book on each country. Uh, the left one here, Beneath the Veil: Fall of the House of Saud. This is about Saudi Arabia. And the other one, Volatile State: Iran in the Nuclear Age is about Iran. And once again, to those who are interested in learning, this is about, uh, uh, not just learning, but you know, you will have an intellectual engagement in understanding the dynamics. Uh, should you ever be interested in that, check out my books here and you can get a copy there. So So let me share an excerpt with you here, guys. I wrote back then— remember, the dynamics have changed. I kept the door open just in case, but this one to me rings bells, uh, with vis-à-vis the request from the Saudis. I wrote back then, Israel and Saudi Arabia to some degree are behind the strong opposition of the US Congress to Iran's nuclear deal for two main reasons. One is that Israel worries that lifting sanctions against Iran paves the way for the latter to increase its military and economic support of groups like Hezbollah and the Houthis. Two, Saudi Arabia fears the expansion of an Iran sphere of influence that may decrease Saudi Arabia's religious dominance in the Muslim world. However, I continue, I do not subscribe to the notion that Iran's post-nuclear agreement advances either its ideology or, religiously speaking, its attempt to dominate the Muslim world. Even before the nuclear agreement, the invasion of Iraq, American foreign policy double standards, the civil war in Syria, and the upheavals in Yemen The military coup in Egypt and the failed state of Libya demonstrates that religious differences divide the Middle East in religious terms. In my opinion, Saudi Arabia is unwilling to relinquish its so-called religious leadership. That's to me make perfect sense. Yes, they are now on good terms because of China's brokering a deal, uh, between the two, which is a good sign. That left us, the Americans, wondering where things are headed. Because now, when you think about American influence in the Middle East, what's influence? What influence do we have there? Of course, now all the countries will have to recalculate now. Uh, as I said, they have to go back to the drawing board to reconsider what Trump possibly might be doing in the Middle East. The one that is foregone conclusion, especially when you look at who he is appointing to keep positions, it has to do with how U.S. and Israel is going to move forward regarding Iran. But it will be a grave mistake of the United States to do so because China and Russia have already declared their support for Iran. Second is we do not know the capabilities of Iran. Iran is not showing all its cards. So, so, and this is where I continue in my argument. I cannot fathom the logic of critics who argue that Iran wants to dominate the Muslim world. How could it? Since the Shia population is only about 170, 180 million, which represents a fraction of a large Sunni Muslim population of about, what, 1.4, 1.6? And guys, correct me if I'm wrong on the number here. 1.4 Muslims around the world, Sunni Muslims, that is, elsewhere. So as I argued, while Iran's political influence is undeniably growing, the Shiite camp does not wield influence or power when it comes to hardcore demographics. Like I mentioned, there are approximately 1.6 billion Muslims in the world, representing 23% of the world population. And of the 1.6 billion, only 10% are in Asia, by the way. 10% of those are in Asia. I'm sorry, 10% are Shia. So if you go with the argument, even hypothetically, even if Iran wants to expand its influence in West Asia, it will hardly have religious dominance over the Muslim world. So the concentration of Shia population is mainly limited to main 4 countries: Iran, of course, Pakistan, India, and Iraq. Yes, there are Shia in India, which you don't hear much about because the same like other Muslim minorities in India, they are being sort of targeted. You know, Modi, the Prime Minister, you give him the proper respect because of his title, uh, understand what he's doing to those minorities. So, uh, So, so limited members of Shia appears in Lebanon, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey, among others. Like for example, in even in United Arab Emirates, there are some, and of course Yemen. So however, what precipitates concern over sectarian tensions is not the agreement between the United States and Iran the latter's nuclear program, I wrote back then, but rather the invasion of Iraq and the war in Afghanistan. Now these tensions are more pronounced in countries like Lebanon, Saudi Arabia's eastern provinces, mainly Najran, Iraq, and in Yemen. So the history— because you have to understand the history here, guys— the history of the conflicts of the Middle East, at least when it does not involve Israel has always depicted the two main religious denominations within the faith of Islam, the Islamic religion. So the Sunnis and the Shiites. So to better understand the issues at the core of this eternal ideological conflict, one ought to have, like I argued, a basic knowledge and understanding of what Saudi Arabia and Iran represents, religiously speaking. Okay, this is fundamental. On one hand, Saudi Arabia represents an ascetic, ultraconservative, and somehow twisted interpretation of Islam. On the other, Iran subscribes to similar religious beliefs, except that Shia believes in some practices uncommon among Sunnis. At the heart of the matter is not whether Shia religious practices and rituals differ from those of Sunni— Sunnis. Rather, the difference lies in the political and the spiritual grounds of those beliefs. So the ongoing regional conflict reflects the ideological attraction Iran is gaining in countries like Yemen, Syria, Lebanon, Bahrain, and other Gulf states. This is why, guys, the last naval drills were conducted in the Gulf of Oman. Those countries do not want to be part of any tensions that the US is intended on creating regarding Iran. But at the same time, did Saudi Arabia or Jordan prevent their airspace from being used? I'll let you answer that one. So, moreover, even though two crucial Islamic holy sites, Mecca and Medina, are located in Saudi Arabia, Iran and Shiites for that matter don't grant the kingdom— Saudi Arabia, that is— pivotal leadership over the entire Muslim world. And rightly so, Saudis don't have the right to dictate to the rest of the Muslim world. So There is no seeing eye to eye between these two branches of the faith. I address this topic in great depth in the subsequent chapters, as I mentioned, in my book. So because Saudi Arabia fears of Iran's emerging power, especially in the aftermath of this nuclear deal that was reached back in 2015, so, so suffice it to say that the ongoing conflicts in Yemen that was taking place which still some tensions there, and of course in Syria for that matter, betrays US, uh, leadership decline in a chaotic Middle East. As I argued back then, I argue that Iran, Russia, and China are hedging their bet that this trend will continue for months if not years to come. And here we are. This is why Russia and China have already declared their support for the Saudis. Saudi— that's why I put the question: can they be trusted? What do you guys think? Let me see your answer. Can they be trusted? Yeah, and remember always, religion— that's one thing I need to share with you guys— religion, man-made, by the way, because I, I'm a believer of that. You know, I respect your religious, uh, views, beliefs, whatever, uh, whatever your religion is, I respect it, you know. But I— it's my belief, and I came to this realization later on in life, you know, as I read more and research and all that stuff, became clear to me and evident that religious— a religion is man-made. So it's been used to justify whatever, you know. You look at just history, just go back to history, go back to the Roman time and how everything was centered around the Vatican at that time, because that's where the Holy Church was. And the Pope has always been viewed as God's representative on Earth. However you perceive God to be. The same argument is made in the Islamic faith. You know, I am not— you know, this is not to point fingers at one religion only. That's why I am saying a religion is man-made, in my opinion, and according to my own thinking, how I see it. So, but religion is also— can be used to justify whatever. I mean, I remember after 9/11 happened here, you know, what was the first question we asked? Why did God let this happen? Well, sorry, God had nothing to do with this. It was our foreign policy that pushed. Let alone if you only know the background story of 9/11, which will be a subject for another day in another location. You all know what I mean, right? So, and this is why I'm saying you have to understand these dynamics. Uh, to me The surprise of this Saudis asking Iran for, for naval drills, uh, that just something doesn't add up. And that's the way I see it. So yeah, and, and, and, and that's how I see it. That's my belief, because you have to understand the geopolitical shifts, shifts taking place in that part of the world and how the concern now, especially for Israel that Israel dug itself in a hole. I ain't gonna come out of it easily, you know, you know. And, and again, you're gonna have to look at things realistically, where the issue— where things are headed, you know. Remember, all what's going on right now, uh, uh, uh, Hezbollah has not been using any missiles yet. They're using just rockets. Iran didn't even get involved yet, launching few things here and there and shutting down certain uh, uh, missiles that, uh, Israel sent, which proved that the TAD system ain't working for Israel because some, uh, rockets and missiles made it inside Israel. So, and when you start targeting Haifa, when you start targeting certain parts in Tel Aviv, when you start targeting— that's bad news. So, and that's why I'm saying, with all those dynamics, the changes that's going on, all of a sudden Saudis are asking Iranian, can we conduct bilateral. This is just Iran and Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea, let alone the location. And I want you always to keep step back, always keep step back before you reach conclusion and think about the other aspect that could either influence the trajectory or contribute to the direction of where that trajectory might be headed. So the one thing that is clear is that the Saudis also are very concerned. They are very concerned that now Trump is going to be inaugurated, assuming between now and— once again, a lot of stuff can happen between now and January 20th. So because Trump already made it clear to the Saudis, they're gonna have to pay up, you know, the same arguments I think I'm gonna be making now for both Japan and South Korea. And soon Philippines and Australia, which by the way, Australia now is becoming more like a garrison. We put in every— I mean, Australia is gone. Australia is done for, sad to say, but it's reality. So, and this is where you have to understand these dynamics. I'm going to keep an eye open on this, uh, to understand, okay, what is the nature of this? But mark my word, even when the drills takes place, Iran's not going to show its capabilities. It will be a strategic mistake if they do, because Saudis can share the information with the Americans, because the Saudis will do what the Americans ask them to do. So, and, uh, oh, thank you, Barry. You wrote thought-provoking stuff, Dr. O. Thanks, Barry. And that's the whole idea of why I do this, you know, because we're gonna have to think outside the box, guys, because the way how things are worded— and I read through different, uh, mediums and all that stuff to see, uh, it's— they are manipulating the masses because they want to keep the masses in the dark. So I'm even thinking, guys, about probably creating a course, which I will not do here because it won't work here. I might create a course and I'll have people sign up for it. Uh, you know, it's like what I do at the university, what I did at the university, uh, till I figure out things about the, uh, university in Fujian in China. Uh, so I'm still waiting, by the way. I sent my resume to them and I'm waiting to hear back from them. So, so, uh, so, and this is where you have to understand this dynamics. I am very concerned now seeing who, for example, Trump is thinking to appoint as the Secretary of State. It would be a tragic mistake. Nothing against Marco. So again, he has at least some understanding, little better than Tony Blinken, but he's not fit for that. You can have a hawk and a warmonger that's going to push for more conflicts instead of more cooperation. So that just to me It's very, very, very, uh, uh, uh, concerning. Oh, Kara Kulak, you say a course with the test? Well, I could. This might shock you guys because I could do it. And the way we'll do it is I'll create just for you to write a 2-page essay, and I'll read it and grade it, whatever. You know, it's just for, you know, it might not— to some might not mean a thing, but to others It might mean a lot. So yeah, I can do it that way. I used to do the writing assignments for my students every semester I taught because it's important. Sometimes you'll have creativity in creating your own, and you will be surprised once you start writing. Once you start writing, you will be surprised how much you know. You just never put it into words, you know. You know, we— each one of us here in this community, guys, each one of us has capabilities beyond your belief. It's just a matter of how you tap into it. So, so, and this is why I'm thinking about this. I'm gonna figure out a way how to do it because you'll probably— because I also have to, uh, focus more on my speaking engagements. Uh, those are very, very involving because When, when an entity invites you to do speaking, this is not about talking about the top of your head. They have to— and the reason they ask you, because, uh, uh, in my experience, uh, because they want to save millions and millions and millions of dollars in investments before they go into specific geographical area. And this is where my knowledge comes in when I do presentation for that leadership of the entity, whomever that entity is, you're saving them money for that matter. So, oh yeah, by the way, uh, uh, oh, thanks Muslim Revert, you mentioned, uh, uh, about, uh, Anna. I know you meant Anna, me, but remember to join me on Saturday at 8 o'clock, uh, in the morning because the timing, guys, this is one thing when I have my guests from, East Asia. That's just because the timing of it. That is where, uh, why yesterday I had to have the, uh, conversation with, uh, Fernando and Jerry at 7 PM. Uh, also be on the lookout. Uh, I will be having a conversation with Einar Tangen and Warwick Powell. So it will be recorded again because of the timing, and we'll release— it will be on the other channel. Not on this one here. So I look forward to that conversation. Those two experts are— they, they know what they're talking about. So, so, and some of you mentioned about, uh, if I could have these roundtable discussions. Yes, I will. Uh, I'll, I'll be inviting guests where we can do conversation. I don't like to call them interviews, it's just a conversation for the sake of us learning together. So All right guys, I hope you find this— by the way, I'll be working, I am working on two, uh, uh, uh, recorded videos, analysis that is, uh, that I'm gonna do for you, uh, you'll, you'll see it soon in the time, and also be looking at some other topics for you, uh, uh, uh, on, uh Yeah, one of the ones that I'm thinking about, guys, has to do with Latin America. You all know what's going on in Peru, right? Yeah, I'm gonna be doing that, that looking into that. So because you need to understand, and I believe Jerry mentioned yesterday about how now this port in Peru is gonna cut down the, the, the, uh, the, the duration of the trips by 15 days. I tell you, Washington is not happy about that. It's not happy about that. So, uh, so that's what I'm gonna be working on, and I will let you guys know once, uh, uh, same thing with the China trip. I didn't forget about it. And again, I don't say much, that's just my nature. I, I don't say much, but there are works going on behind the scenes And so you're still gonna hear from me about the, uh, China trip, uh, in, in, uh, you'll find out. That's the bottom line to it. So, and I will let you know in few weeks from now, uh, whether I'll make that decision to go to, uh, the, uh, Xinjiang area and all the Tibet and all that stuff, uh, next year. And I'll converse with you, and if the community is willing to support that I will be happy to do it. So, uh, speaking of support of the community, uh, I'm going to share the link with you for those who wants to support the channel. I know some of you, uh, have dropped their membership. I understand, uh, but I am very grateful. I'm very thankful to those who have supported the channel for the past few months. You know, uh, I shall never forget this, and I will always be forever grateful. So As always, guys, remember, geopolitics impact your daily life in more ways than one. Till next time, guys. Bye-bye.