Secret US Document: China Could Destroy US Forces in any War over Taiwan! Geopolitical Trends

Hello everybody and welcome to Geopolitical Trends, where truth matters. I'm your host, Dr. Oualaalou. Excited to be with you, uh, on this, uh, December 15th, halfway of the month. We, we have two more weeks for the end of the year, so where time goes. So anyway, we are very excited to be with you. I have an interesting topic, uh, for you. I, uh, of course I'm going to answer the fundamental question that many wonder, well, if it is highly classified, how come? You know, I will tell you how and why that is the case. But, uh, so I'll be talking about, uh, today in this particular topic, I will be addressing what, uh, now that the secret US documents which disclosed that China could destroy US forces in any war over Taiwan. So, and this is what part of this highly classified document, the detailed, which by the way were leaked, you know, revealed some sort of a bleak vision of the future balance of power, especially when it comes down to China's naval assets. So this is what I'm gonna be addressing and providing you my own analysis about, given that I addressed some of this in my, I remember, both my Russia book and my Iran book. I remember I addressed the Chinese military naval assets into this particular aspect. So this is what I'm going to be providing you. So you are in for a treat, if I may use the term here. But before I do this, let me say hi quickly to our wonderful community. I have a lot to cover, so I'm going to quickly say hi to Lin Yan. Good to see you. Say It Like It Is, as always. Willie Holman from West Memphis, good to see you as always. TNN Channel, good to see you. Truth Seeker, Casey Wong, as always. Momo Jagora from Gambia, good to see you here. AFG, Duncan Corleone, good to see you, and salaam to you as well. Francis Tango, as always. Atinwu, good to see you. And who is Lock? Good to see you, Lock. You know Good to see you here. Alex Talokin, as always, and ABC Mick, good to see you here. So, all right, let me, uh, and oh, David K, good to see you and hello to you as well. All right, let me first address some housekeeping items. Uh, of course I will be doing, uh, the live Q&A for the members. I'm sure I have some members here in the chat box, so I look forward to having this conversation, and I'm going to be providing you some sort of, uh, an assessment about the global security and geopolitical landscape for 2025 and 2026, of course. And I will be answering some of your— the members' questions. So I look forward to this conversation, which is going to be on December 17th at 1900 hours Central Standard Time. So Second thing is I officially launched the, uh, I officially launched the, uh, the funding campaign for my upcoming Asia trip in 2026. So as of yesterday, so I'm going to put the link, uh, for the community, uh, and I'll be talking more about this as I move forward as to, uh, what is going on with this particular trip, where I intend to go, what I intend to cover. I've already got a lot of support for, uh, from, for the support of this Asia trip. Boonsoy Toy bought me a couple cups of teas. Also, someone bought me about 20 cups of teas. So Morris bought me a few cups of teas also. All of this, Paul Hang, as always supporting the Asia trip. So all this is part of my upcoming Asia trip, which I will say more about it in detail. And the last thing I want to say about these housekeeping items, I'm also working on a particular analysis for you regarding— with, uh, has to do with pertaining to the defense of US and China and Asia and so forth. It's something you don't want to miss because that also will give you an idea about what lies ahead in 2026. Headlines, I have one for you and one that is very interesting. This individual, this is Kast, his name is Kast, K-A-S-T. He is the new president of Chile. What's important about this individual is that he's the son of a Nazi official and a supporter of Israel. So Kast has become now president of Chile. So his name is José Antonio Kast, so who will replace the current Chilean president Gabriel Boric, you know, one of the most prominent critics of Israel and the government of Prime Minister Netanyahu, who had suspended diplomatic relations with Tel Aviv after the attacks of October 2023. So here is what they think about this new president. Kast, José Antonio Kast, pledged to correct the mistakes made by Boric, describing his foreign policy decisions as a whim. You all know what it means moving forward. So Chile might be embarking on different policies altogether. So, all right, let's get into our topic here. So, uh, as I said, a highly classified document detailed of which, uh, this pertained to the Chinese, uh, uh, uh, uh, naval assets and submarines and so forth. So the details we leaked, uh, revealed a bleak vision of the future balance of power in West Pacific and warning that Beijing's hypersonic missiles are capable of sinking US aircraft carriers in few minutes. This is what is troubling for the US assessments that came out. So it is a classified document. So, and of course, as Washington now and Beijing sort of prepare for some sort of— literally, they are preparing, believe it or not. Both countries preparing for some unprecedented scenarios regarding Taiwan. Yeah, and this is where this classified document suggests that the United States may be on the verge of losing what it described as its overwhelming superiority. So, and this, by the way, was also picked up in London because you remember the intelligence communities, both the, the, both the MI6 and MI5 and the other aspects of the British intelligence community work in cooperation with the US, with the whole US IC. I was in the IC. I'm familiar with how this kind of cooperation works. So what the Britons are saying, the Brits, the ICs in Britain, there's also some sort of stated confirming. It's confirming. That's the keyword, confirming China's missiles. And technological capabilities, and coupled with its massive low-cost production, meaning the Chinese could make any military confrontation regarding Taiwan or anywhere else in the South China Sea, because Chinese are not interested in going and venturing out in fighting whomever elsewhere. So what it could make is that it could make this confrontation very painful to the Americans and could end the American dominance in the region. So, and here is one aspect before I'll delve deeper into all this. I want to answer one question from one of our viewers by the name Simon Peters. And I know he put the comments saying, and I quote, "If it is highly classified, how is it made public?" End of quote. That is a good question. And of course, I'm not going to be saying something that I am not aware of. I worked in Washington. I was in the IC. I was in the military intelligence. I understand how these dynamics work. The reason why you have a leak, because you have to understand— when I say you, I'm referring to just in general terms— what you have to understand is that who decides on American foreign policy? Okay, it's not the State Department, it's not the president, it's not the White House. It is the military-industrial complex. It is the sort of the defense entities, not only the public one involved with the Pentagon. Okay, you might ask yourself again, how do I know this? Because I used to work for one for a period of time. So when you think about what the military industry, the MIC decides on a foreign policy, it is to their benefit that something like this leaked to the public, to the media. Why? Because it's going to create fear inside Washington Beltway by saying we need to pump in more money into the naval assets. This is why when you read the Pentagon, assessments regarding the Chinese naval capabilities, it shows a bleak picture. It is true that the Chinese are building massive naval assets, and I'm going to be sharing with you some details regarding that. But it also— what the reports coming out of the Pentagon wanted to have is wanted to have the Pentagon— the, I'm sorry, Congress allocates billions of dollars for the defense contractors to build more naval assets. This is why I'm not surprised at this highly classified document being leaked to the media. Some, not even, not everybody picked on it anyway. And this is where this secret US document highlighted the ability that China could destroy US forces in any war over Taiwan. So what I'm gonna be providing you is my own analysis, my own assessment, providing you some details about the naval capabilities of the Chinese, just to put it in perspective for you. So when you think about the actual assessment, and when we say actual assessment, you consider the military aspects of it, you consider the intelligence community, defense experts, academia, and what have you. So multiple US Defense Department reports, including congressional research and analysis, have all noted that China's military capabilities have grown significantly and that any cross-strait conflict, meaning the Taiwan Strait, would be extremely difficult and challenging for the United States. So, so when you look at about even think tanks in Washington, and there are plenty of them that works on behalf of the US government and the Department of Defense. So some of them published detailed scenarios examining sort of the different outcomes, you know, and many suggesting that China would inflict substantial losses and potentially achieve certain military objectives depending on how much, for example, such conflict, or how such conflict unfolds, which basically amounts to one particular conclusion, and that is the ending of the US dominance in the Pacific. So, Others, other analysis sort of emphasize the outcome will sort of depend heavily on specific circumstances. You look at also the timing and you look at one key aspect, which I will detail later on. And that key aspect has to do with the participation of the allies or the subservient states for the US on one end. And of course, the big elephant in a room has to do with the tactical decisions. And this is why when you put this within the— its important— its context per se, so yeah, to a degree, this might not be a secret after all, secret findings that is, because at least in— I speak for myself here— I was aware during my time in Washington for the scenarios that the Pentagon had run vis-à-vis the fight, the conflict with the, with the, with the China. And most of those scenarios, we end up losing. And once again, you're gonna have to assess the capabilities, uh, depending on which scenario you're right, you run. But also, this will give you an idea about the Chinese military strength, you know, versus whether we're talking about if this equating to some sort of a certain victory or not. This is one of the— because there is one thing you need to understand about the US military doctrine, which emphasizes deterrence through capabilities and credible commitments, commitments on paper, of course. You know, you look at Ukraine as a case in point. So, and this will, will, will in itself, in my opinion, provide us with this an honest assessment as to with, with these capabilities, whether they can meet sort of the challenges from potential strength in other countries, in the case, like this case in China. So, and this is where the actual debate involves. So whether US military advantages, you look at technology, you look at experience, you look at allies and so forth, could offset China's geographical proximity and growing force size? Because it's legitimate, uh, consideration you have to take. You also have to think about, okay, what is the role of the Taiwan own defenses, if they will even stand any chance against the Chinese? Third one, you have to consider how quickly either side could escalate or sustain the operations. Another aspect you have to think about is the potential for the political resolution versus a military conflict. Always have to think in terms of this. So, and this is where you have to think in terms— you, you have to ask questions that matter in this setting. So if you are interested in specific understanding of the analysis or the experts' assessments or what have you, vis-à-vis the cross-strait military balance of power between China and the US, you're gonna have to consider the Chinese naval capabilities. Okay, and this is where you have to think in terms of, uh, the ship numbers, the shipbuilding capabilities for the Chinese. So I'm going to be sharing with you some numbers just to put things in perspective. China's navy is expected to grow to about 300— about 425, to my knowledge, at the beginning of 2026. You know, back then, the argument was— the assessment was that the Chinese will grow the naval assets to 395 by 2025. And remember, this will go to 435 by 2030. We're looking only at 4 years from now. So while at the same time, US Navy assets included only 296 as of August 2024. This is once again why leaked information about a classified document will serve this purpose for funneling more money from Congress towards building more naval assets. So And even by 2030, the US will not break through 300 ships, naval ships, while at the same time China will have about 435. So, and this in my opinion represents a significant numerical advantages for the Chinese. Of course, it's gonna come the question of, well, it's not about the quantity, it's about the quality. I agree with you, but also if you know what the Chinese have built, especially when you talk about laser, for example, the sonars that the Chinese developed, which can detect any submarine in the vicinity. So the US will not be able to go too deep because the Chinese sonar systems will be able to detect it. As a matter of fact, to my knowledge, yesterday I read, uh, an analysis came up out of the Department of the Department of Defense in Japan that they are now mounting laser weapons on their, uh, naval, uh, ships. Makes you just wonder. The big aspect for the Chinese has to do with the Chinese anti-ship key— anti-ship capabilities. And I have a picture here for you that I'm gonna be sharing with you. This is a missile that was launched during the maneuvers of 2022. And this is courtesy to the military, the Department of Defense in China. So I know the Ministry of Defense, I think that's what they call it. So, and this during the exercises on August, uh, 2022. I recall this one here. What I wanted to share with you has to do with this particular type here. This is the HCK bomber, but the bomber is not about the bomber in itself. But rather the missile. What you're looking at, the image of the KD-21, this is a Chinese-made hypersonic anti-ship air-to-surface missile. It's nicknamed the carrier destroyer. And this because China is boosting its advanced attack capabilities, which by the way, this missile exceeds Mach 5. In speed, and this is powered by solid fuel engine, and it possesses high speed and operational stability. This missile was developed as part of China's strategy to enhance its ability to control maritime areas, particularly in conflict zones. This is what I'm saying as far as the ability of China to sink US aircraft carriers in few minutes. And that is, again, you have to understand why the leak was, was, was sort of why, why there was a leak of this classified information on part of, in the US to begin with. You know, and I, I, I could share many stories for you, at least during my time in Washington, when some highly classified information will leak to the media. The one famous case, to those who are familiar, has to do with none other than Scooter Libby. Scooter Libby used to be the chief of staff for the Vice President Dick Cheney, who leaked classified information about none other than Valerie Plame. Valerie Plame used to be a CIA officer. She was also the, the, the wife of Ambassador Wilson. Ambassador Wilson was sent to Africa back then to investigate whether the yellow cake, meaning uranium, was going to Iraq. And when he came back and concluded to Congress that it was no transfer of yellow cake to Iraq, meaning that Iraq was not importing, Scooter Libby, with orders from the vice president, leaks the information. Of the Valerie plane. That is why I'm saying to you, when you see something, oh, it's highly classified, it can't be leaked— no, there is a reason for that. And like I said, when you think about the KD-21, the Chinese missile right there, this one right here, those are— and I have another picture for you here. Here we go. This missile right here, this one can sink the US aircraft carrier in few minutes. And that is the reason for why this assessment came about to highlight. Uh, uh, and if this is not enough, you're going to consider the Chinese submarine growth. And here's the thing, once again, part of that classified, uh, assessment that was part of it leaked outside. So when you think about the Chinese submarines technologies, between 1996 and all the way to 2015, the number of modern diesel submarines in China inventory rose from 2 to 41, with all but 4 armed with cruise missiles. And by the way, when the scenario was run in Washington, as far as the conflict between China and the US, one of the scenarios run this particular aspects regarding the submarines because the modeling suggesting the effectiveness of the Chinese submarine fleet, which rose roughly roughly an order of magnitude in comparison to what the US has. You also have to consider geographical advantages. China holds significant— and of course this is part also of that, uh, classified, uh, document, except that the geography is well known— China holds significant geographic advantages. Why? Because China has about 134 air bases within 1,000 miles of Taiwan, which means what? All the bases are within Chinese territory. By the way, it's not in Philippines, it's not in— it's not like the US. And when you think about those, within those locations, you have about 650 hardened aircraft shelters. So of course, the US has few air bases within sort of the, within the areas. But this, from the perspective of the Chinese, it falls within the radius, meaning the targeting of the US bases in Japan, in South Korea, in Philippines, in Australia, in Guam, or what have you. All this within the radius of that, the Taiwan Strait. And that's, again, you have to put this in perspective. The other aspect has to do with the space capability and the surveillance aspects of this. When I say surveillance, I am referring to the satellites, imagery. I was in a second signal intelligence in the military. So every country, advanced country militarily, will have this capability. So when you think about the Chinese intelligence or surveillance and recon satellites, okay, get this, which you usually— it's, it's— this is why it was leaked. It was classified to begin with within the US. They didn't want to release this. But it's too late. The Chinese have about more than 359 systems as of January 2024. When I say 359 systems, I am referring to the surveillance and recon satellites. All this part of the guided missiles, the, the, the equivalency, you know, they have the Beidou the equivalency of our GPS, because the Chinese building their own. And by the way, this has tripled in its collection since 2018. That's how important the satellite. As a matter of fact, I was aware of one particular concern that SpaceX Elon Musk was concerned about is the capabilities of the Chinese in space that they could take out his satellites. Of course, China is not going to do it unless Elon Musk aggravate the Chinese for some reason. And this gives the Chinese an increasingly sophisticated ability to track and target US and allied naval forces. This is again, where that capability comes in. And I'm going to share the link with you, part of this. And it came from my own state, right here in state of Texas, because we do have a capability in the intelligence collection. But this might shock some of you because we never liked the federal government anyway. We never liked Washington. But so I'm going to share with you, uh, and I'll show you something here quickly. If you allow me. No, I'll just, I'll just, uh, share the link with you and you can read it yourself later on because I have a lot to cover. There's the link, so check it out later on. So, and of course there are those in Washington will say, oh, we don't care if the Chinese build so many because you have that, that concept of quantity versus quality assessments. So, so yeah, yeah, the picture is so complex to begin with. So of course the US has maintained some sort of technological advantages, you know, but you cannot ignore the sheer size of the Chinese growth in naval assets. So it's because the overall assessments within these secret documents is that the overall assessments of the US naval assets or advantages have diminished significantly compared to what it used to be back in 1996, which was only 4 years prior to that when I was making the case about be on the ready for the next 20, 25 years for where China's gonna be regarding its military capabilities. And this is where you see that sort of requirement for the substantial larger forces to maintain this dominance of the US in the Pacific. That's why it's not going to happen. And this is where you have that comparable or comparative capabilities. So, so, and this leads us to ask the questions of the capabilities, as you saw. One of the thing that the particular anchor talks about is the triad, the nuclear triad, especially the coordination between land, sea, and the air. And one particular has to do with the sea, and this one pertains to China's submarine capabilities. So when you think about the fleet composition, you know, of course it's not about— it's the capabilities of this particular submarines. So when you think about the fleet composition, you know, all US Naval submarines are nuclear-powered, of course, including 14 ballistic missile submarines, 4 guided submarines, and approximately 50 attack submarines. So in contrast, the bulk of the Chinese submarines fleet is diesel-powered. However, China does have approximately 12 nuclear-powered submarines. So, and with this, the picture is evolving. So, because by 2030, it is projected that China will have about 76 submarines of all types compared to 66 of the US Navy. And when you think about this, you think also about the technology and the stealth involved in this. The US maintain, of course, some technological edge. We're not denying this. When you consider, for example, and I am aware of one specifically, is the Virginia, US Virginia-class submarines. So, which this one, some sort of has some stealth capabilities. However, because it has some sort of an advanced, uh, uh, uh, BQQ, which is some sort of a sonar types. But the Chinese have developed a countermeasure to that because they can detect this particular submarine, submarines at about 15 nautical miles. So, and this is where you see this kind of, because the Chinese also have developed one particular one that reach 110-decibel silence. The US has only 100-decibel stealth. The Chinese have 110-decibel silence through nuclear-powered attack submarines. So then you add the nuclear, uh, the advanced weapons— I'm sorry, the advanced weapons. Think of the Chinese Type 093B Chang-class submarine. Okay, and those particular ones, you know, they carry the YJ-18 supersonic anti-missile ship. Those about 450 km range. You also have the Type 094 Jin-class carrier which carries the JL-3 ballistic missiles with about 12,000 km range for second strike nuclear capability. Once again, if you read that security review I provided you in the chat box, you will be able to read all this. So then you think about the detection challenges. So, and that is where the Chinese are working towards now achieving higher level capability because they are pursuing new detection methods. So, so, and to my knowledge, the Chinese have developed— researchers, that is— this is why they are ahead in quantum computing. The Chinese have developed some sort of terahertz-based submarine detection technology and computer modeling to identify bubbles produced by a nuclear submarine through electromagnetic signatures. And that, in my opinion, as a former military, it represents a significant and potential advantages in detecting any stealth U.S. submarine. So when you take the overall assessment, yes, the US still have certain advantages and edge, wholesome edge over Chinese in certain areas. Maybe you could even go into the undersea domain, but the margin is shrinking. So because China is investing heavily in submarine modernizing, modernizing its submarines and the production capability. So, and when you think about— if you are to assess this, and I wanted to share this with you, the idea of peer-to-peer conflict. Of course, we don't wish for that to ever happen, but we cannot refrain from addressing what those capabilities can do. Because you have to put this in, in picture. When you think about this DF-26 missiles, those are long range. When you think about certain other areas, and we give credit to the picture to the Defense Watch. When you think about the KD-21 missile right here that can sink an aircraft carrier in, in, in few minutes. So, so peer-to-peer, who will win a war? Between China and the US. So it is a complex question. There is no winner, first of all, let me just from the get-go, but it's complex. It's very complex question because the approach, at least if you ask a military expert, you know, it's gonna be, it's gonna differ depending on the assumptions, it's gonna be different depending on where the area is gonna be, where the conflict is gonna take race, you know, because the US-China scenarios has been run, to my knowledge, 18 times, and out of the 18, we've— 17 out of 18, we lost to China. So, so that's why I think it is difficult question to answer by saying, you know what, just Country X, China or US, whatever, will win. No, it's not that simple, because again, the outcome depends heavily on the scenario, on the geography, on the timing, on the assumptions. There are so many, so many variables that you have to, to consider. In either way, it's very grim. Let's, let's just be honest, straightforward about this. So Because when you think about conventional weapons or conventional military power, so, because neither country, in my opinion, neither country overwhelmingly with the conventional military power or significant economic outmatch that will ensure rapid victory. That's what I'm referring to here. A rapid victory. It ain't gonna happen. This is the reason for it, because any US military conflict will last longer than traditional force planning has envisioned. There is no way. Of course, China has the geographical, the geographic advantages. And this is where, when you think about near-term, and near China's territory, China holds the real advantages because a clash in South China Sea, the opening, in the opening week, what it will be? It will be the missiles and will be the ISR, the intelligence, surveillance, and recon. So, and with geography strongly favoring China for the opening phase, So because China has the, what we call in a military doctrine, the interior lines. China has also the dense sensors. And of course it has the hardened outpost. So, so which means US forces or any other country that participates with the US, Japan, Philippines, Australia, and South Korea, sort of the, the combatant will be vulnerable because they will be exposed anyway. So, and this is where you have to think in terms of de-escalation problems, where this is gonna go. And this is the terrifying part in my opinion, because hypothetically, and this is hypothetical, Even if China loses a military confrontation at first, there is little reason to think that the war will simply end. You'll be mistaken. Look what they did to Japan. Look how China fought the Japanese at their height, and they end up defeating the Japanese. So Because in this scenario, Beijing might consider a nuclear either threat or retaliation. Could it be the other option as far as settling in blockade, which combined with either cyber attacks or whether with what have you? The possibility is there because with this comes these strategic implications. And this is where this particular classified document argued the best way to deter war is to visibly improve the ability to fight and win quickly. But we can't. We couldn't even defeat the— we were defeated in Afghanistan. We were defeated in Iraq, in the Red Sea, Somalia. All this gives you an idea, and China is none of those countries. So, because you have to think about the cost, which will be extraordinary high. Think about the Afghan war, was about 6, uh, 5.8 to 6.1 trillion. Think about the Iraq war, was 6.2 trillion. A war with China would be economically and strategically costly. And that's the concern for the nuclear aspects of it. So the bottom line is that the analyses coming from different outlets within, within the classification of the US government, you know, all of them, all of them avoid calling for, avoid declaring a clear winner. There will be no clean winner because the outcome hinges on the scenario specifics. So that is one of the— so, and that's again, when I was aware of the US running multiple war scenarios against China, and most scenarios predicted the loss of the US. So, and those game, uh, uh, war gaming exercises usually gives you some very clear indication where things are headed. So even the Pentagon's own assessment, the Pentagon's own assessment as of November 2024, so which was under the current Secretary of State, which— Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, which is— he's not even qualified for that. And there even these scenarios, we lost every time. So, and that is again was examined by the Pentagon's Office of Net Assessment. Warns the United States will suffer catastrophic losses without significant reforms. So, and that in itself highlights to you China's capability to destroy US satellites, large ships, and fighter aircraft. So, and we're not going to get into why the US struggles with these scenarios and all that stuff. That's, that's, that's, yeah, it's because it'll take us somewhere else. So The one thing that I'd like to bring to this conversation before I, I, I, I end this live stream here is that US subservient states or allies, more like, are they more likely to intervene? And the answer is yes. Japan is widely seen as the most likely US ally to contribute troops to defend Taiwan. Of course, you saw what just happened last last month. The Philippines, Australia, South Korea could all be key players in Taiwan conflict. I will even go as far as saying India might also be behind closed doors participating to target China because I don't trust the Indian government. So Japan, particularly Japan's position is particularly critical. Why? Because you have US military facilities in Okinawa, which have served as a staging ground for operations from Vietnam to Afghanistan, and will most likely in this scenario play a central role in any Taiwan conflict or crisis. And that in itself will make Japan complicit from China's perspective. Even if it took no, no action, and it would behoove the Chinese to take care of that right away. And the recent tensions between China and Japan sort of underscore this vulnerability for the Japanese. Then comes Australia. Are we gonna ignore Australia? No, you can't. Australia geography will make it very critical hub from which the US could sort of resupply its forces and launch operations against China, and likely responsible for securing sea lanes and tracking Chinese vessels across wide geographical areas. So when you look at the big picture of the allies or the subservient states, The— you can, you can assess that the situation is asymmetrical, no, because you're going to have to consider about China's also allies. In this case, you're going to have North Korea and you're going to have Russia. So which is limited if those who will say what the US has more allies, but if China takes care of those allies ASAP, destroying their air capabilities or air defenses and so forth. What is that going to leave you with? Yeah, the US might have the Europeans get involved, you know, the South Koreans, the European dimension to all this. I'm not denying this, the possibility is there. So you can— you think about, for example, the Europeans, you're going to think about the two main countries the UK and France, which have naval presence in the Pacific. So of course, as of now, none of them ever declared or announced defense of Taiwan, unlike what the Japanese did. So, and the French, they're gonna have to— are you gonna trust what the French doing? No, because the French could hit China economically if it wants to. But again, the economy of France in comparison to that of China is weak. So the bottom line is that a Taiwan conflict would likely pull Japan in directly and Australia in supporting role with others, the likes of South Korea and the Europeans also facing, and Philippines, facing pressure to help instead of resisting any major military commitments. That is the bottom line. And again, this leads us also to China's allies. You cannot ignore this. Think about China alliance structure. It's very, very, very different than that of the United States. Think about Russia and China's partnerships. Although China and Russia do not have— are not sort of a formal ally under treaty, their plans to cooperate on potential invasion scenarios represent the degree of alignment that sort of edges them closer to an alliance. And of course, this is why you see the joint naval exercises together and so forth. It's for this particular reason. And this is significant in my opinion. So, because especially recently that the Russians made it clear publicly and diplomatically that Taiwan is part of China territory. So, and is firmly supporting motherland in safeguarding its sovereignty and territorial integrity, according to their statement. Then comes the North Korean wildcard. North Korea is China's formal security treaty ally, which by the way was signed in 1961 under Mutual Defense Pact. But its utility, some will say, is limited. Others will say no. So, so, so technically, North Korea will be obligated to defend China if ever Beijing is attacked. So what will North Korea do? There's one particular scenario, is that North Korea will take care of all the US presence in South Korea, wipe that out. So it could even target Okinawa. One thing is sure is that North Korea could be disruptive for the US. That is the— and that's where it becomes the question of commitments versus capabilities. So, and it's worth addressing, you cannot ignore something like this. And I'm not even getting into the economic devastation that could lead into this, the regional instability, the escalation risk, then the nuclear dimension. And all this leads me to the bottom line, and I'll conclude with this here, is that the US-China conflict would likely mean economic collapse of global supply chains, potential nuclear escalation. You're looking at a fragmentation of international institutions and global economy into more competing blocs, casualties in tens of thousands, complete devastation of Taiwan, and years of global instability. And this is why, as, as geopolitical analyst, You know, I am saying let's find a way of pursuing cooperation instead of fighting a war because there will be no winner. And for the sake of not just the region over there but for the whole world, because China is no small matter. China is not Afghanistan. China is not Iraq. China is not Yemen. So I hope some cool heads will prevail in Washington and for them to reconsider. All right, that's all I have to share with you here, and, uh, I'm gonna see if there's any question from you. I will answer it. Uh, once again, just to remind, uh, my, uh, my channel members, uh, for our upcoming a live Q&A on December 17th at 1900 hours Central Standard Time. I look forward to seeing you there. I will be providing a much elaborated assessments regarding the global security and geopolitics, and of course answer the questions for the members. So I'll take this opportunity to say thank you. As I mentioned to you earlier, uh, I am going to be, uh I am going— I formally launched the idea of, uh, my upcoming Asia trip, and I want you to be aware of that. So I'm going to put the link here for those who wants to support the trip. I'm going to provide details for, for what I'm going to be doing for this trip. This is, again, I'm not going to the same, uh, locations like I did before. I might end up visiting, but I have to— there's a specific reason for why I want to take this trip here. There are certain truth needs to come out, and I intend to travel to those areas and provide you my own report from the ground. So, so I'll be providing later on the timeframe when I'm thinking about this. I'm And of course, as we launch this fund campaign in the hope to— for the community to fund this trip, if you guys want me to go back to China to do more reporting for you from there. I also want to take this opportunity to say thank you for those who've been supporting the channel. Here's the link for it. Greatly, greatly. I'm gonna give a shout out during the members live Q&A for the supporters for that. So all right, let me see if there is— I'm gonna put the link in this in the chat box. Oh, you're most welcome, Marco. Uh, atinu, most welcome. John Dutchman, you're most welcome. They're just saying thank you for all this. You're most welcome, guys. To those— I think you have to— for those who have to sign off. So, all right, let me see if there is any question. Liang, you're most welcome. So let me see if there's any question from you. And I'll be working, by the way, I will be working tomorrow on on, on a particular topic for you, uh, that pertains to, uh, the military dimensions, uh, of, of, of all this. All right, I'm going to sign off here. Uh, hope you guys enjoyed listening to this analysis, and I look forward to seeing you next time. As always, remember geopolitics impact your daily life in more ways than one. Till next time, bye-bye.