Tehran Retaliates: Missile Swarms Target U.S. Bases After MOU Betrayal

Hello everybody and welcome to Geopolitical Trends, where truth matters. As always, Washington was under the impression, uh, that, uh, it could break the ceasefire without a fight, but Tehran just responded with pure rage, raining missiles down on 4 different US bases. Why? Because Iran feels completely betrayed What's new about the Americans, the government for that matter? And their military leadership is warning, meaning the Iranians, that this initial retaliation was just a warning shot for what comes next. Makes you just wonder where this is going to go. So one thing that is certain, like I said to you yesterday, today I'm going to be focusing on the target locations on both ends and so forth. Provide my own insights about it, but also highlight to you one of— I was thinking last night what lies ahead, what could happen that now the gloves are off. So one thing is certain is that the MOU, the Memorandum of Understanding signed in Islamabad, is dead because US bases are now— are already burning. And Tehran just proved It can strike American forces at will. This is the difference. This is not the Washington didn't count on. So, but Iran is true, Fury hasn't even picked yet because the real danger now, really the danger, or what you can see might happen, is that what the IRGC now is positioning to do next. That is exactly the question that I literally last night I was just sitting down and quietly and thinking to myself. We saw what we saw with the US, with the US strikes, unjustified by the way. And now makes me just think, what will the IRGC do? Are we days away from a total blockade of the world's most critical energy choke points? Or are we really on the doorsteps of an all-out war that, that's going to involve the entire region for that matter? So before I'll get into the analysis and so forth, I want to play a clip for you from, uh, uh, Al Jazeera that was recorded inside Tehran. Okay, I just want you to listen, uh, to what people are saying basically, because you need to listen to that. Then we'll just go from there.

It looks like business as usual here in the Iranian capital, Tehran. People are going about their daily life, but also they know that there is some uncertainty regarding the clashes around the Strait of Hormuz during the night. People here are hoping that that situation will not lead to a return to war. They have seen the devastation, they have seen the misery caused by the war of 40 days, and also even last last year in June. They don't like to see a repetition of that scenario. We have talked to some of them regarding their reactions to the possibility of Iran and the United States returning to war.

We're not worried. We're the winners of this war. Hormuz belongs to us. Iran has to control it. I don't think there will be war again. America has interests in the region, so it will have to cooperate with Iran to preserve them. Of course we are worried. What can we do?

It's war.

But we need to be powerful and able to defend ourselves. Of course the Strait of Hormuz is located within Iran's borders, so Iran should control it. Let war return.

Iran will win.

The Strait belongs to Iran. Those who impose sanctions on us, we should impose sanctions on them. And we should fight those who fight us. We have no fear of war.

So people here are basically balancing two things, two important things in their minds. On the one hand, the importance of peace, and on the other, the importance of the state of Hamas. They believe that the country deserves stability and peace, but at the same time, they think that the country should, should do what it takes to maintain its control on the state of Hamas.

All right, I just wanted to play that clip for you, which by the way was based on the article, as you saw on the date, on, uh, I think was in June 28th or 29th, somewhere around that time. Nonetheless, is the content of it that is important. Now let's talk about the target bank of the latest escalation between Washington and Tehran. So what does it consist of? So I'm going to start with the US, then I'll move into the Iran targets, which— and I have images and pictures, uh, for you to highlight to you really what happened. Because here in the US, then when I'm going to disclose the targeting of the US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. But I got images from the region to prove otherwise. So the target bank of the latest military escalation between Washington and Tehran consists approximately of about 85 to 90 tactical military and infrastructure assets. That's what the US is saying. But when they say infrastructure, they are referring to civilian also. Because that is where the problem is, is the US moving into that direction. So, and those assets, as the US is saying, were primarily located in the southern part of Iran. And I got some maps to highlight to you all these locations, which I'm gonna get into the detail, uh, of it as I move, uh, forwards. So the Central Command, uh, uh, uh, the US Central Command, that is Uh, following this collapse of the brief bilateral ceasefire, this targeted physical layout was specifically selected for a reason, and that reason, according to the US, is to degrade Iran offensive capabilities. Well, wait a minute, didn't the US said already this the first week after the war started? Didn't Israel and the US said this last year, we have degraded Iran's capabilities? Now, why are we saying the same statement again when it has nothing to do with the reality? And it shows you right there what the message is intended for, is for domestic consumption here, and to mislead the masses into the true reality of what is taking place on the ground. So the ultimate goal, of course, of the operation is to halt, renew the threat against the international maritime shipping excuse me, and commercial vessels, uh, trying to navigate the critical Strait of Hormuz. This is what the US is saying. But on the other hand, we all know, like I said last time, 2 months ago, 2 main energy cargo ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz with no issues whatsoever.

Why?

Because they coordinated with the Iranian authorities, and it was no issue whatsoever. So what makes the US stating this? It's just because the US wants to take advantage of this and again reignite the war that, that of course the US is pressured and pushed into the windies. So when we think about this, uh, uh, uh, uh, target bands, you know, all those, those, those locations, you think about it from two, two aspects. One is geo— geography, and the other one is functionality. So both geographically and functionally, this Tarkiv bank comprises some key elements. For example, you have the air defense systems, the Iranian one that is. You have the coastal surveillance infrastructure. You have the mobile missile launchers, and you have the drone storage facilities. But again, which you guys been, been with me for, for, for a while now, you understand, you are, you can think outside the box yourself. Do you think that Iran is going to allow its air defense system to be exposed? Do you think that Iran is going to allow its drone storage facilities be exposed? Do you think that Iran is going to allow its mobile missile launchers exposed? The answer is no. And that is why when you see what the— I saw the report, I had a chance to read, rather not saw, but read the, the, uh, the release by the Central Command stating the exact, uh, uh, terminology that I just stated with you, but it didn't make sense to me. And that's exactly what Donald Trump said back then and what the Israeli and the US said last year. We destroyed, we degraded Iran's military capabilities, and it turns out to be not true. And according to some reports from the region, they've heard explosions, they've seen damage where concentrated heavily in the fortified, fortified rather, naval and coastal hubs. There were some images of that. I mean, nobody's denying that, but for them to say that they have destroyed the air defense systems and so forth, it has nothing to do with the truth. So, and this is what they're saying is basically the targeting area according to this report, which I, I just, I have to question. I I have to question the legitimacy of the arguments made by the Central Command, especially for the location of maritime zones of Sirrik, Konark, Chabahar, and the port of Bandar Abbas. Basically, when you look at this location right here, I have, uh, I got you guys a map for, for right there. When you look at this one here, this is Bandar Abbas here, this is Sirrik. This is Khmer, and when you look at in the south, you won't see it. And I have it in another map when you see the Shabahar, uh, the, the, the Shabahar, uh, location. So, and this is why with this saying, well, the strike in proximity to the outer perimeter, because what the US Central Command is saying, wait a minute, we also targeted the perimeter of the Boucher nuclear facility. Didn't we see that we destroyed it last time? Didn't that— it's not a laughing matter. I'm just saying to highlight to you the lies, what we're saying versus what the reality is. Didn't Donald Trump said, hey, we obliterated Iran's nuclear, uh, program? And it turns out to be what they hit was nothing but the gate of the nuclear power plants. Those things are buried deep down. We couldn't reach them. Yeah, they targeted the parameters, so what? But nonetheless, it makes it a target. So, so, but however, there is one reality that I need you to know. Even targeting this parameter of this Bushehr, uh, uh, nuclear facility, do you know what? You know, the operational reactor itself was not directly impacted, which means it's still working as normal. This is the harsh reality that we're having a hard time accepting. So in parallel to this, uh, physical, uh, military sites, at least for what they are stating, the broader conflict, when you think about it, it also features something else. And that other thing is— has nothing to do with the military, it has to do with the economic Target Bank. And why is this important? Because this one is driven by the U.S. Treasury Department, like I mentioned yesterday. I can see what's coming economically speaking, especially with the energy prices. I went in yesterday, by the way, and just filled up my two other cars, and I filled up the gallons of, of, of gas just to have them here in the house just in case, because I could see the prices going up already. Went up to $3.39 a gallon here in Texas. Usually for us, we are an energy state, we don't see those kind of prices, but it's going up. So the economic layer consists now of Iran trying— what the US trying to do is trying to sort of take over the, the banking sector, the shadow one. That's what the US is saying. And how is going to do that is by targeting certain companies. So the digital asset infrastructure the foreign financial entities that assist the IRGC in evading global oil sanctions. And this is why this morning I had a chance to listen to Colonel McGregor's, and, and he stated something very interesting regarding the economic and financial aspect. He's saying that more and more countries now are realizing that it's safe bet for them to leave their money in Chinese banks instead of the US banks. When he said most countries, we're talking about large sums of money. We're not talking a regular deposit of 5 grand or 10. We're talking about millions, if not billions, in reserves. And he's saying that it will be safer with China's bank, in Chinese banks, rather than the US. And I can see why. I can see why. So suffice it to say, for our conversation here, uh, this dual strategy now The military targets, the economic hit. This dual strategy, in my opinion, combines the— when you combine it with the kinetic strikes on the coastal weapon sites, even the US saying, well, there are sites there, and I know, yeah, I just won't buy that argument. I won't buy it. Yeah, with the strict financial— when you combine that and you combine it with this, the financial restrictions to cut off Tehran primary revenue streams, you can just, you can just see that we never had any intentions of moving forward with the MOU. The MOU was nothing but a, a sort of, uh, uh, uh, what's the word, a pause, saving time for the Americans. Because now it's been exposed. We have not honored what was in that, uh, uh, uh, MOU. That we signed. And remember, the targeting of Iran of the cargo ships is because those cargo ships didn't coordinate with Iran as it's supposed to. That is the whole, uh, the whole issue with this one here. And that is why when you think about the US immediately following the, the, the, the strikes, it, it, uh, disclosed the, the, the range of the targets and so forth. Why? Because he want— he wanted to disrupt Iran's maritime trade. Because this saying, meaning the US, Washington is saying, oh, because of Iran is threatening freedom of navigation. No, it's not. Let's be, let's be straightforward about it. It is not. How can you explain 2 months ago or a month and a half ago when these 2 cargo ship— I wish I— and I'm gonna dig for the name of those cargo ships next time we do live and share them with you. Why these two energy, uh, uh, this two oil, uh, tankers were able to cross? Once they coordinated with Iran. So where is this threat to freedom of navigation the US is claiming? You know, we gotta call it, call a spade a spade. We can't be just cherry-picking the information to sell the domestic audience, which most of us Americans are clueless and oblivious to what's going on. Ask them where the Hormuz Strait, uh, the Hormuz Strait is located, they will have no clue because we are poor readers of geography and history, if I may add. And that is why when you get a chance to read the, the, uh, the, uh— and I'm going to post the link for you for the Central Command official public statements. You can read it later on if you decide to do so. And that is again where you see the idea of— oh no, no, no, no, no, no, no. What they're saying is that this precision operations focus entirely on degrading Tehran's kinetic capabilities along Iran's southern coastline. And we did not. God, if, if we could, if they could allow the media to go and report the truth, because we are not going to allow it. What I found very interesting, you know what I found very interesting? During back in the days in Afghanistan, when, when, when, when a patrol, when a US unit will go out, guess what? There will be at least one or two, uh, individuals from the press. You know, we put a Kevlar on them, we put a, a, a, an armor body, uh, body armor on and so forth. And, and, and we say, hey, you're coming with us because we want you to report it. How come we are not— if we are there, why there are no US press, uh, on the ground to report as it was? And even with what we did before, I'm gonna share a personal story, nothing classified of course. It was one time a specific case, a specific op that was at that time And one of the media came over and said, hey, I'd like to go. I said, I don't think so, not on this one here. But anyway, the op went over, we done and all that stuff. I flew back home and I was just sitting in my living room and all of a sudden I see the news about that specific op. And what the media was reporting had nothing to do with what was happening back then because I was on the ground. And I'm like just leaving, I'm not shaking my head, I was shaking my head of how much they are lying about this. I see no difference in this scenario here. But suffice it to say that I need you to understand that what the US, uh, uh, uh, the Pentagon Department of Defense confirmed, that the operation successfully eliminates more than 60 IRGC small fast attack boats. Are you going to believe that? I'll let you decide for yourself, because they are saying— they meaning the Pentagon officials— saying, oh, these heavily armed vessels located in near the Strait of Hormuz, because the US said those are the primary, uh, the primary, uh, assets responsible for recent unlawful action against international merchant shipping. When in reality has nothing to do with that. We all know what it means, why the US is saying what it, what it's saying. And that's why I need you to understand this reality for what it is. Now let's move to how Tehran responded. What did Tehran or Iran did? How did Iran responded? Here in US bases in Kuwait, Jordan, and Bahrain For Iraq, it was a different story. So I'm going to be sharing now with you the coordinated drones and ballistic missile salvos that targeted American facilities in Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, and Qatar. And tell me, for my American viewers, did we see anything in the news here in the US that disclosing these pictures? And I have images, I have satellite images to prove otherwise. So for example, when Iran went ahead and following consecutive nights of heavy US bombardment of its coastal, uh, infrastructure— that's what the US did— the IRGC and the Iranian military officially coordinated and announced that the regional retaliation was a direct response to Washington's violating the fragile ceasefire, because it was like, like we all said yesterday. Remember, Article 5 of the MOU stated right there that Iran manages the transit of ships in the Strait of Hormuz, and the ships will have to coordinate with Iran. It's straightforward. The US agreed to that and signed on it. So let's go to Kuwait and go to Bahrain. In Kuwait and Bahrain Those two. And why is this? Because they host US bases there. Tehran focused specifically on key targets to degrading local US defensive capabilities and logistical infrastructure. And Iran confirmed, and I have the images I'm gonna share with you in a second there, confirmed. That's what the Iranian army confirmed. That it deployed one-way kamikaze, uh, attack drones against the US Patriot missile interceptor system in Kuwait installations, like for example Al Salam Air Base in Kuwait. I'm going to show you a picture and you see it for yourself. And the picture, by the way, guess where it came from? The Chinese satellite. Here is the picture. This is the base. It was attacked. Did we read about it here in the US? Not at all. And again, uh, do you see this is at the bottom here? Mizar Vision, that's the company. It's, I believe, in Shanghai. But anyway, that's the, the Chinese satellite picture of Ali Salem Air Base in Kuwait that was struck by Iranian missile. Here is the one in Kuwait, and this is where— and simultaneously, after this attack on Ali, uh, on Ali al-Salem Air Base in Kuwait, simultaneously— that was by, by the way, that was by the Iranian Army. Then simultaneously, the IRGC struck against US military fuel storage facility in Bahrain. Why Bahrain? Because it's a home to the US Navy Fifth Fleet, and that in itself triggered multiple round of air raid alerts across Manama. And I have a picture to show you. I'll show you the first one, uh, uh, this is, uh, Uh, this is one of the strikes, by the way, uh, near the Strait of Hormuz. That's the one I want to show you first. But the second one I want to show you is this one right here, the Iranian drone strikes. Even though I'm gonna highlight to you one thing, this is the strike on the, uh, Iranian strikes on the fuel facility in Bahrain. Because remember, like I said, Bahrain is home to Fifth Fleet, US Fifth Fleet. And this for the bases and so forth. Furthermore, inland, inside, the retaliation by Iran widened the geography of the conflict by directly engaging two other locations, one in Jordan and one in Qatar. And what happened with those? And once again, none of this was reported yesterday. I looked before I came on the air for— I always go back an hour or two before I come on the air to see if there are any updates. I see none of this yesterday in the US, uh, publications here. All the information you are getting is from overseas. I spent last night and this morning gathering this information for you. So what Iran did— oh, I'm sorry, what IRGC did by targeting now the two other locations, Jordan and Qatar. Of course, because they have US military bases there. Jordan has military presence, has US military presence on its soil. So, so IRGC launched at least, and I verified and confirmed it, at least 10 long-range ballistic missiles toward Jordan Azraq military base. And that's exactly what Iran did. Al-Azraq military base, which hosts US Air Force 333rd Air Expeditionary Wing. That's why I'm saying there are US military presence in Jordan. Jordanians do not know and not aware of it at all. So Jordanian Armed Forces, of course, they're going to have to come up with this statement. And here is the exact statements we saw at the beginning of the war when Iran launched missile against Israel and hitting Tel Aviv. But the IDF were saying what? Oh, we intercepted all Iran's missiles. Is the same statements the Jordanians are saying, because here is what the Jordanian Armed Forces are saying. We— and I'm paraphrasing here— because I remember reading the article, we successfully intercepted 8 of those incoming projectile over our airspace. Once again, are you gonna believe what the Jordanians are saying? So at the same time, what Iran did also simultaneously with the launching of the 10 missiles, they went ahead and struck the early Warning satellite systems at American hub in Qatar and warning of a further— Iran now is warning of a further regional escalation if Washington continues its campaign. And I'm going to send you the link to see it with your own eye, or you can read it, but you see the image there, uh, should you decide to read it. Here is the link. It's not from here, the US. You can read it and it has an image once you open the, uh, as a matter of fact, I'm gonna show you right now. I'll share the screen with you. You can read that later on if you choose to. Take a look, look at the, uh, the title, just to highlight to you the confirmation. Iran fires 10 ballistic missiles at US military command center in Jordan. Look at the dates of the article right there, July 9th.

Yesterday.

And that is my point. What the media is not telling you, they— because they don't want you to know. So because if you don't know, you will be left with a puzzle that is incomplete in understanding the full picture as to why we went ahead and struck Iran to begin with. When we agreed— we agreed in that MOU that certain ships, they're gonna go across, they're gonna coordinate with the Iranian, and no issues there whatsoever. But it highlights to you that the US was pressured into acting. That is exactly where the difference is between what the media is saying and between what I'm doing in this channel for you. If the truth matters to you Hit like, subscribe, and tap that bell. No spin, no agenda, just the stories they don't want you to know. Don't watch from the sideline, be part of the movement. Your support keeps the truth alive. Thank you. Indeed, please subscribe because I am noticing either YouTube is not wanting the channel to grow. A lot of comments that I get, there's like, Dr. O, your channel is supposed to have more views on than just— or subscribers than what we have. It is what it is. So your help, I count on your help for this one here. I will greatly appreciate it. Now the next question is, which is the crucial one, what about Israel as it braces now for an Iranian response? Because the logical question which I'm going to ask you, and please just answer yes or no, do you think Iran will go ahead and strike Israel? Yes or no in the chat box. I would greatly appreciate it. So let me, let me expand on this one here. Israel has already raised its military readiness to the highest tier across all branches. I mentioned yesterday some, but I told you I will detail more in the next time. And the reason they did this, because they are bracing for a possible expansion of what's going on, of the conflict, that is. Well, of course, what is going to be happening in the next days? Next few days. Bibi is going to be— pardon me, Bibi is going to be in Washington. What do you think he's going to go— what will be on the agenda? Because they wanted to push the US into restarting again the conflict. That is why Israel is preparing. So even though, even though the media here in Washington is saying, oh, the United States currently maintains a little appetite for Tel Aviv to actively enter this specific round of fighting. No, no, no, no, no, no. It's because what the Israeli defense officials are operating— they are operating under the assumption, and you know what that assumption is? That Tehran may directly target Israel to deflect from its— what they're saying is because it want to deflect from its losses in the Gulf. Which is a reality. No, no, because Iran understand that is Israel that is fueling behind the scenes all this. So, and that is why you see now defensively the Israeli Defense Force are coordinating closely with the US Central Command. You remember what I told you a few days ago? The head of the Central Command went to two location, traveled to two locations. One is Beirut and the other one is Tel Aviv. Why do you think that for? Just to, to go have a cup of coffee? No, no, it's because of the coordination.

Why?

Because they wanted to shield the strategic air bases. That is the reason why. And I am not talking just from what's been reported outside. I'm talking about the reports from the intelligence agencies. Not the classified version, of course. I don't have access to that. What the intelligence reports indicate is that the high probability that Iran could target major Israeli installations, like specific ones, for example, the Nevatim and Ramon air bases. Why are those two bases important? Because American military aircraft previously operated from these two bases. So Iran has the capability to reach that location. It has the missiles that is capable of reaching that location with no problem whatsoever, knowing that the, the air defense, the Iron Dome of Israel is useless against these particular missiles. So Iran understands it has the capability and the means to do so. Will they do it now or later? I do not know, and I can't, I can't just, uh, guess about that. This is something you don't want to guess about. But one thing for sure is that what is going to be reported in Tel Aviv and in Washington regarding the efficiency of the Iron Dome— here is what they're going to say most likely: oh, the Israeli multi-layer air defense system networks, including the Arrow the David's Sling and the Iron Dome systems have been upgraded, have been fully, uh, optimized to intercept multi-directional ballistic missiles and drone swarms. Are you gonna buy that argument? Come on, not to insult your intelligence, but you've been around for a while now with me. You understand and you know how to read between the lines when you read some statements like this or hear about it. And this brings me to my point, what I shared with you yesterday, and I told you I will get you the, uh, the exact details of it. Let me put this one back here for you and play it so you will know, and I'll do the translation. Here is what happened with that. Why did Russia warn Iran against using the Fattah missile at once? The warning is purely technical. Launching a batch of Fatah hypersonic missiles together creates electromagnetic interference around each missile due to high thermal friction. This interference interferes between neighboring missiles, confusing the guidance systems with each other instead of targeting the enemy. Russia has lost its accuracy in previous similar experiments. So the message to Tehran: a single timing error could turn the most expensive missile in the arsenal into a costly failure that embarrasses the entire program. That is the reason why Russia went ahead. This is a, a subtle message to Iran Russia warning them, don't do that. If you plan on targeting Israel, which most likely they might, they're gonna end up either using the, uh, the, uh, Khorramshahr-4, or they're gonna use Emad, or they're gonna be, uh, using the Fateh, which is hypersonic. And they want to make sure, make sure either use only one or figure something out, but they don't want them to waste those missiles. That's my point. And that is exactly where I see the idea of why Israel now is on the highest alert. It's because they know, they know that offensively, even though Israel is preparing for this counter, severe counterstrike if targeted, but no, no, no, no, no. You have the domestic reports inside the IDF and some of the intelligence services, the Mossad, the Aman, and so forth. They are saying that, well, Israel has contingency targets, move away from the past constraints. No, basically what they're saying is, oh, they're gonna want to cripple Iran's core economic infrastructure, energy networks, and oil facilities. Well, good luck with that. Do you think Iran is going to just be waiting for its infrastructure to be hit? No, they won't. So whatever the Israeli assessment, uh, I, I can say that is off the mark. Off the mark. Because Iran has already moved on beyond that. Well, if you, you attack us, we will attack you.

No, no, no, no.

We moved on from that. That is the surprise. But the United States got shocked. They didn't expect that Iran's gonna retaliate immediately. So, and that is where I see the visit of Bibi to Washington is nothing more than to push the agenda for the US to now restart the war against Iran once again. And in this time, Iran will have to show what it has in its arsenal that it did not show before. And go ahead and deal with whatever needs to be dealt with immediately. Uh, oh, I forgot to show you one of the pictures, uh, here. By the way, this is the, uh, uh, airbase in Bahrain. This is, uh, this is prior to the hit. You see that square over there? That's what exactly Iran targeted. And here is the second picture of it. Right there, it says right there, the destruction of the fuel, fuel reserve or tankers for the planes that belongs to the American military at the Sheikh Eissa base in Bahrain. So satellite image is not gonna lie. Yeah, I just wanted to show you that one. So the next question before I conclude on this, because I, I, I keep to this one, uh, to the point, and because that's all I wanted to talk about on this one here. What lies ahead? And that's exactly what I was thinking about last night, literally after I finished, uh, uh, uh, gathering the information for you. For today's live stream and the analysis. I sat down quietly and I was just thinking, okay, how will the IRGC proceed now? Okay, what will be the next plan? And, and that's to me, as a geopolitical analyst, I ought to ask that question because the immediate path moving forward is going to be centered on the high stakes now of whether diplomacy is going to at least pave the way for the parties to sit back. But at the same time, I'm telling myself, and maybe you are as well, we done with this diplomacy nonsense stuff because diplomacy has got us nowhere. If I am to put myself in Eran's shoes, for us, we're just buying more time. It's because we are pressured to do. We don't make our own decisions. We are following orders to embark on whatever policies. Remember, Washington hasn't had a foreign policy strategy for the last 4 decades, 40 years. Ask people in the know and they'll tell you because we just react to events as they happen and we follow orders based on certain entities that controls Washington. If you really want to— I'm going to tell you this for those who might ever visit Washington. If you ever visit Washington, if you want to know where really power is, go to 38th Street. You're not going to see anything of obvious, whatever. There will be nothing, just buildings. But that's where power is. And that's all I can share, just to highlight to you that Washington, the White House, just takes orders. And this is exactly what paved the way for me to think last night, what are we going to be seeing here? So, because when you think about what the US is trying to do, is he trying to intimidate while at the same time conducting talks? Well, what do you think Iran's gonna— how, how Iran is going to perceive that? And what will Iran do? Iran will say to itself, well, sure, if they want to talk, we talk, but we're gonna have, we're gonna pair this with some sort of intense regional military posturing if we are attacked like what just happened. So, and even the, the UN Security Council, which by the way convened for an emergency sessions, uh, based on, uh, uh, on mediators from Oman, Qatar, and Switzerland. Because they are working behind the scenes. It, it just doesn't work, especially for the likes of Qatar. You are wanting to do this, but at the same time you're hosting US military bases that fire on Iran. That just doesn't add up. You can't make the cake and eat it at the same time. You can't have it both ways. Same applies to Bahrain, same applies to Kuwait. Same applies to United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and even Egypt for that matter. As long as they host US military presence, uh, they are legitimate targets in this case. So what these countries— Oman, Qatar, and Switzerland— wanted to do, wanted to establish a durable de-escalation framework. You can establish a durable framework when the US will turn on you? In no time. And I'm not saying this to be spiteful of my, my government, the government in Washington, because I don't see them representing me at all. You know, what I'm saying is you cannot trust and let history be your guide. Go back in most conflicts for the last 44, 4 decades And you see how we flipped quickly. I see the same thing with Iran. And even with the Iran case, look what happened in 2015 when the JCPOA was agreed upon. It was signed. 2018, we pulled unilaterally and turned up— you know, how can you trust what the Americans are saying? And Iran, I, I have been warning, Iran is making a strategic mistake thinking that if we just settle this with the Americans, we'll be fine. You will not be fine till you develop a deterrence. That is the answer. And sooner or later, those decision makers inside Tehran, they're going to come to that conclusion. So, and hopefully when I get a chance to speak with Professor Morendi, which by the way I did reach out to him, he's busy with the funeral, he's busy with what's going on in Iran with the strikes now and all that, he might get back to me at some point. And just to— because I gave you my word that I will follow through, here is the email that I sent with the dates. So, so that's— so we'll wait till we get a chance, and hopefully he'll be here in due time, and, and we'll continue that conversation. But let's, uh, uh, let's— let me put this within the framework from a security perspective, because what I see coming, and it's already happening gradually is that the United States is moving additional naval strike groups and advanced air defense systems into the Persian Gulf as we speak. And, and I'm gonna follow up on this this weekend, and I'll do livestream and analysis for you next week pertaining to this one here, because the argument the US is making— oh, we just wanted to protect the the commercial shipping lane and secure American bases against further retaliations. And, and did you see how the US is putting those countries— Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Oman, Jordan— really, they put them as a target. As long as the US is there, as long as those countries are legitimate targets, because when the US attacks where those ammo come from, where those strikes are launched from, where those, those strikes are, are planned from. It's from those locations. They're not in the Pentagon.

No, no.

And that is why when you see the possession of the IRGC— IRGC, in my opinion, moving forward, is going to continue to possession its remaining missile reserves, which they have, by the way, massive amount. It's going to be maintaining a high, uh, state of combat readiness. And all this for one purpose, and the purpose is to signal to the Americans, to the Israelis, and to those Gulf states that any further American or Israeli actions will meet immediate response. Simple as that. This is why it behooves And again, I don't know who's advising those leaders in those Gulf states. I, I don't know who's advising, but again, it's, it's their countries, they can decide. As long as, again, US presence there, they're gonna remain a legitimate target. Simple as that. So the most critical wild card, in my opinion, before I share my conclusion for you, or with you rather, lies in the potential expansion of the conflict. Like I did in the video, uh, last week, the recorded one that I did the analysis for you about the future of the region. And that is exactly what I see, the potential expansion of the conflict, not only from a military aspect, from an energy and economic infrastructure as well. Because now we're going to be moving— we meaning the US in conjunction with Israel and some Gulf states, we're gonna— they're gonna be moving into targeting now civilian infrastructure. And one of them that I know for a fact is the railroad systems of Iran. And that is why the global market, energy market, now is bracing for prolonged instability. Energy is going to go up. Prices already— the, the barrel, the price of crude already want to— it's because Iran is going to shut down a gas strait, or almost is already under its control, and it's going to just— once it does that officially, it's going to send the oil and gas prices soaring. So, so if diplomatic channels fail, which to me looks like it is anyway, to secure breakthrough in the coming days, the region will face distinct risk, in my opinion, of a protracted war of attrition, especially with Bibi Netanyahu heading out to Washington. And of course, this is going to be accompanied by cyber warfare, localized proxy strikes, and asymmetric economic disruptions. That's the way I see it playing out. So, so let me share my conclusion for you, and I'll do some clips, and I'll share one good news for you at the end here. So So the latest breakdown between Washington and Tehran sort of has pushed now West Asia, uh, uh, or Middle East into really a dangerous tipping point. Once again, it's because we had never intend— we never had the intentions of honoring our commitments to the MOU that we signed or moving forward into a peaceful resolution.

Why?

Because the ego of Trump was shattered. He couldn't defeat Iran and will not be able to defeat Iran. Ask anybody who knows about the history of the Persians. The Mongols couldn't defeat them. The Soviets back then couldn't defeat them. What makes us think that we will defeat the Iranians? And that in itself, transforming this fragile ceasefire into an explosive regional crisis, that's again what keeps me up last night thinking about what lies ahead. So with US bases hit and Israel bracing for what comes next, so the risk of an uncontained multinational war has never been higher, to say the least. And, and it concerns me a great deal for the safety of everybody, for the sake of the world peace. Because we still do not know what Iran has. Iran still, according to some of my trusted sources, Iran still has capabilities that they never disclosed yet, saving that for a rainy day. And that is why I am left to wonder, with Trump how he is, could the US resolve into tactical nukes? I hope it never gets to that, but I won't be surprised if they will be pushed into it by behind closed doors. So here is my question for you. I would like you to leave me your comments. Do you think diplomatic channels can still fix this, or is a wider regional conflict now completely inevitable? So make sure to, uh, share, uh, uh, your thoughts in the comment below. I will greatly, greatly appreciate it. So All right, let me share with you one good news. Oh, oh, by the way, I want to share this comment here. I saw it, uh, Louis, uh, Talavera, thank you so much for this. The MOU was a complete sham from the very beginning. The situation will end when the last US missile is used against Iran. You got a point there, logical argument. I, I never saw that MOU of substance to begin with, because it's an MOU. It's not an agreement. It's not an agreement. That's why I used to say two words. One is, this is nothing but a framework. And second, this is nothing but a surrender deal. So, so that's the way I see it. So, all right, let me play some clips for you and we go from there. The first one I'm gonna play for you is about Bahrain, where the attack took place, that the media is not disclosing. All right, take a look here. Let me share screen. There we go. US Fifth Fleet right now in Bahrain. Missiles are raining down on them. They're getting absolutely pounded. Make sure to subscribe for updates. Iran is striking the US Fifth Fleet right now in Bahrain. Missiles So it was, you know, a kind of— you have to understand where this is coming from. So next one is about, uh, Professor Morandi, but, uh, Professor Morandi, but it was through, uh, Colonel McGregor said something about the former advisor was, uh, by the way, just to let you know, the one he's talking about, the previous, uh, uh, advisor was Professor Morandi.

So Take a listen, please. A former advisor to Iran's nuclear negotiating team just sent a direct warning to every settler in the occupied territories. His message in 3 words: Leave now. Watch this.

There was some progress, so the Americans have waived the sanctions on Iran's oil exports and its oil-related exports. It has promised to release half of Iran's stolen— half of the stolen assets of the Iranians, roughly $12-13 billion. The siege on the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian ports has come to an end. The ceasefire in Beirut and across Lebanon continues to hold, and there have been some agreements in this regard, and Iran will continue to ensure that the regime is forced to withdraw and retreat from Lebanon, and that the entire country will be liberated, and that the regime will no longer be able to attack the people of Lebanon. There are lots of issues that remain.

That's Professor Syed Mohammad Marandi of the University of Tehran. A man who has actually sat across the negotiating table from American officials. And the warning that follows that statement is what's getting attention right now. His point is simple: if the agreement between the US and Iran collapses because of Israeli sabotage, there won't be a safe corner of occupied Palestinian land left in any renewed exchange. So what's actually in this deal? That has him talking like this. The terms break down into four major pieces. First, Washington has waived sanctions on Iranian oil and petrochemical exports for 60 days through August 21st, with the Treasury Department issuing a general license to allow Iran to produce, sell, and ship crude oil freely. Second, the U.S. has agreed to release $12 billion in frozen Iranian assets, despite the vice president initially claiming on television that zero assets were being unfrozen. Third, the naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted, with Oman's foreign minister confirming toll-free passage after talks with Iranian officials in Muscat. Fourth, Washington has committed to a full ceasefire across every front, Lebanon included, something Trump announced himself on social media. Morandi was also asked directly whether Gaza got left out of this deal, a claim that's been floating around in Western coverage. He shut that down fast. Arguing Gaza was never a side issue. It's the actual core of the entire resistance movement, and that Iran has paid an enormous price specifically because of its position on Palestine, while wealthier countries in the region stayed largely silent. There's real friction baked into the American side of this too. The administration claimed Iran agreed to let nuclear inspectors back in, Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman flatly denied that, saying there's no plan to allow IAEA access to the sites that were bombed. Similarly, Vance suggested unfrozen funds would be tied to purchases of American soy, corn, and wheat. Morandi dismissed that outright, calling it fabricated and insisting Iran will spend its own money however it chooses. There's also a newer wrinkle being discussed, a vague proposal involving outside investment, potentially from Gulf states, that could total somewhere around $300 billion. Mirandi was careful here, acknowledging real concern about foreign ownership stakes inside Iran, while explaining the broader goal is simply to break through the sanctions framework so outside investment isn't automatically punished by Washington. Then there's Netanyahu, who put out a statement insisting Israeli forces in southern Lebanon have full freedom of action and that there are no restrictions on operations there. Morandi's response was pointed: Iran still holds real leverage—control over Hormuz and missile capability that can be deployed quickly. And Trump's interests and Netanyahu's interests aren't actually aligned right now. Trump needs this energy crisis resolved. Netanyahu doesn't care if it wrecks the American or global economy. And the pressure on Washington appears to be real. Morandi pointed out that Trump himself recently admitted the U.S. has only about 4 weeks of strategic oil reserves left, a detail he says Iran is factoring directly into its strategy. Underneath all of this is a larger argument about cost. Morandi laid out what Iran has absorbed through this conflict. Well over 1,700 civilian deaths in the most recent round alone. Senior military leadership killed. Air defense systems destroyed. Infrastructure that will reportedly cost hundreds of billions to rebuild. On top of decades of sanctions that have hammered ordinary Iranian families. His argument is that this sacrifice is exactly why his warning to Israel carries weight. A country that's absorbed that much and kept negotiating from a position of patience isn't bluffing when it says there's a limit. So that's where this stands: a fragile agreement, real concessions on paper, open disputes over what was actually promised, and a direct warning aimed squarely at people living in occupied territory right now. What do you think happens if this deal falls apart? Let me know.

Yeah, it's a very, very interesting content. That's why I want you to hear this. I listened to it in its entirety, and, and as I said earlier, I, uh, I emailed Professor Morandi, and we're just waiting. I'm waiting to hear from him and, and schedule the discussion for a time that is convenient for him. So we'll be waiting for that. Next one is from Tucker Carlson. This is very, very interesting also. It's very, very short. Take a listen, please.

States will be forced to use boots on the ground. 60,000 American troops. States will be forced to use boots on the ground. 60,000 American troops ready to go. Uh, they are staged and ready to go. Um, and even though there's an MOU, they're still there. And you could also argue that the MOU is really just buying time. Because right now it's really hot in Iran, and so you have to wait for cooler weather before you can launch a ground invasion. Um, and so I think we are in a waiting game right now, but eventually, uh, you will see boots on the ground. Wow.

So according to Professor Jiang on Piers Morgan, the Pentagon has secretly staged 60,000 American troops somewhere ready to roll into Iran the second the weather cools off. Trump's peace deal, just a big fake out, buying time for the big one. Iran is not Iraq. It's bigger, more mountainous, better armed, and has real allies. So we can play global policeman again? So certain foreign lobbies can sleep better at night? Or is this just the latest chapter in the defend Israel at all costs forever war that somehow always costs us blood and treasure? If Donald Trump, the guy who correctly called out the forever wars for years, is actually going along with this, it would be a profound betrayal of the people who voted for him to end this madness, not expand it. Americans are exhausted. We don't want another neoconservative fever dream sold to us as strength. We want our country back. We want our borders secured, our economy fixed, and our sons kept out of graveyards halfway around the world for countries that wouldn't lift a finger for us.

Spot on. You know, I couldn't agree more. And speaking of the clip he played for Professor Jay, I reached out to, I sent an email I'm still waiting to hear from the professor as well. I do know, according to a trusted source, uh, that he is out of China now. He doesn't want to teach in China anymore. And, uh, so, um, maybe he's busy till he settles in his location, whatever that might be. And, and, uh, but I did, uh, want you to know that I intend to, uh, reach out to him once again to have him come over for the conversation here on the channel. So next one is from— this is about something that wasn't— I didn't expect. Take a listen here.

Is the sort of seeing finally is the sort of bluster and bullying of President Donald Trump meeting reality in a really big way. So, you know, I've said before that one of the tricks to Trump's success in his lifetime has always been that there was someone to pick up the pieces when he screwed up. There was always somebody there, like his father, who could make sure that he didn't go bankrupt, or the person who managed Trump, the Trump Organization, Allen Weisselberg, who would bail Trump out, or there were, you know, everywhere you look, there's always been someone, the adults in the room in his first term who could distract him so he didn't make catastrophic mistakes, those sorts of things. Well, in this term, those people are all gone. You know, his father is dead, Weisselberg is, I think, in prison. I can't remember where he is right now. He got rid of all the adults in the room around him in the first term, and so he's really just flying by the seat of his pants. And he has had this idea, I think, that he really was all that and more and didn't really understand the degree to which other people were protecting him. So now he launched a war in the Middle East against Iran, these strikes against Iran, in tandem with Israel and his ally Benjamin Netanyahu, the prime minister of Israel. And it appears he really thought this was going to be an operation that looked much like that of Venezuela, or much like he is trying to do elsewhere, where the US would come in and get rid of the leaders of a country, and then the next people who stepped up would be people who would be willing to work with the US and therefore be able to put Trump into a real power of authority over those particular countries, and especially over their oil, which is what he did in Venezuela. Although now, of course, it turns out that the US can't actually—

I'm going to stop right there because it's quite a little long, and I just wanted to share that quickly with you. So I hope you enjoyed this one here. So, uh, oh, this is one of the destructions, by the way. I forgot to share this picture with you earlier. So, and also this is the picture of the Shahbahrar right there, uh, for the port and, uh, the betrayals of, of Donald Trump. So anyway, now I told you I want to share one good news with you, and the good news has to do with the campaign. Look where we are right now, and you may ask yourself why that is. It's because it was a major donor yesterday who puts us from 51% to 62%. I'll let you figure the amount yourself. And that person, I got the permission to disclose the name, not a full name, I'm just gonna disclose a first name, Doug. Uh, his generosity was so enormous that puts us now at 62%. Uh, we still work— working our way up towards reaching the target goal of $10,000 by the end of July if it's possible. Because if not, I will have to push the trip till we reach that particular amount. So, but I just want to say thank you to Doug from the bottom of my heart for this generous donation in support of the upcoming trip to Asia. That was strictly for supporting the upcoming trip to Asia. And here is the link for those who might want to support because The money we generated this far is all based on you, donations from all of you. It was another major donor, uh, last time, uh, uh, that, that donated substantially, which put us at a 50%, and now we have Doug that puts us at a 60%. Maybe it will be another, uh, wealthy donor, if I may use the term, uh, we can put us up to the 70 or 80%. That will be very, very great. I'm very, very grateful to all for the support. So thank you so much for that. Uh, the next person I want to thank is Jeff for buying me cups of coffees in support of the channel. Uh, this is the link for that if you wanted to support. You all know the type of information I provide you. I spend time doing this, and I, I truly enjoy doing this one because that's where my heart is. And that's what I wanted to do. So, because also that's my commitment to you, so I wanted to do this one. So should you decide to support the channel, it is the link, uh, for it. And the next, uh, one is for those who might want to get copies of my books. Uh, let me put the link for you here if you want to get a copy of my books right there. So And I'm very, very grateful to all of you for your support. So, so to all of you, I say thank you. I'm gonna be working on the next stories for you for next week. I wish you a good and safe weekend. Be safe wherever you are, whatever you might be doing, and I look forward to seeing you next time. As always, remember, geopolitics impacts your daily life in more ways than one. Till next time, bye-bye.