The Iranian Dilemma: Can Diplomacy Survive Amid Escalating Tensions and Internal Instability?

Hello everybody and welcome to Geopolitical Trends, where truth matters. Excited to be with you as always. Uh, today's topic, I will be talking about Iran. So what are Iran's options, uh, assuming that the US will move forward with an attack? So far, most of the indication doesn't suggest, or do not suggest that the US is going to embark on this. But you have to understand the background, what's going on behind the scenes, as to what's sort of, uh, letting the US, uh, being reluctant or sort of indecisive whether to move forward into this or not. So, so this is what I'm going to be providing you my own analysis about today in this particular livestream. Then we'll cover some other aspects, uh, more moving forward. So, but first, let me say hi quickly, our wonderful community. Leanne, good to see you. Willie Holman, truth seeker, American citizen. Athene Wu, good to see you. Uh, Dave H, say it like it is, good to see you. Farhad Razavi, as always. Uh, Zakaria, uh, salam alaykum. You also. I was going to say you too. Good to see you, Zachariah. Hongwan, good to see you. Femida, good to see you as always. Gina, hello to you as well. And Sophia, good to see you. We are— we and Mossad are not above sabotage operations. That's an interesting one. So Sarah Carol, you made it on time to class. Good to see you. Lack 1970, good to see you. Hello to you as well. Uh, and Fighter Keros, good to see you here. So, uh, Hongwan, there you are. Hello to you as well. So, all right, uh, first of all, I want to let you know about some, uh, uh, housekeeping items. Tomorrow, yes, it's Saturday, but I'm, I'm not taking a day off tomorrow because I'm gonna do a live stream for you about very interesting developments regarding Turkey wants to join the Pakistani-Saudi defense alliance. Makes you wonder what's behind Turkey's decision or consideration to do so. Is Turkey seeing something that is on the, on the horizon that is coming out if it does not position itself? So I know there are those who say you can't trust Turkey. Beside all that, I'm going to be providing you my own analysis, how I see this one moving forward. I am also working on two other topics for next week, and we're going to leave that for next week. It's too early to get in into that right now. So, uh, headlines— I have one specific one for you, and that specific headline, I had to sort of, uh, reach out to some people I know to verify the information. This one has to do with Donald Trump's administration have said now that they will suspend suspend the processing, the processing of immigrant visas for applicants from 75 countries. And this suspension will enter into effect next week. As a matter of fact, it's gonna be— as a matter of fact, I'm sorry, not next week. Yeah, next week on the 21st, that's when it's gonna be enter into effect. And there's gonna be from Latin America, Caribbean, the Balkans, several other countries in Southeast Asia, Africa, Middle East, and what have you. So here is what's interesting about this, and what's surprising— India is not included on the list. I'm gonna do a video just on this because we need to get to the bottom of it. I already found out exactly what is going on, and what is going on, it has to do with this individual right here. Now, this guy's name is Jason Miller. He was a former senior advisor to Donald Trump transition team. And what happened with this guy? And here I have a proof that, uh, here's an image with between a meeting between him and Donald Trump in the White House. What happened with this guy Jason Miller? He received— he signed the contract with the Indian government for $1.8 million per year This is not a one-time deal, per year. And the contract states that Miller will advise strategically and work to influence US public opinion and the Trump administration on India. I will say, heck with it. This guy is a traitor to the United States, should be first of all, you know, investigated. Be given a fair day in court, and if found that he really misused his position, should be put his ass in jail for a long, long time to set an example. So basically, India is paying him to push for the agenda. This is why Donald Trump did not include India in the 75 countries. And as a matter of fact, I'm gonna share quickly the screen with you here because I want you to see the map where those countries are. I'm not gonna list 75 countries, I'm not gonna list all of them, but I will share the link with you because I want you to see this one here. Take a look, here is the map right here, all those countries. But that's not what I'm gonna be showing. What I'm gonna be showing is the list of countries And I'm going to just go directly. This is, uh, in alphabetical order, A, B, C, D, and so forth. Well, of course, when you go to I, which is a third page, right here after Haiti, there is Iran, Iraq, and that's it. There is no India. And that is, to me, where the problem is. These guys been lobbying for India, and I'm going to do a video on this specifically. And now Even for me in Texas here, as a Texan, a lot of voices in Texas and now calling on Governor Abbott to step down because he's been opening the back door for Indian lobbyists right here in the state of Texas. What a sellout. So I know it's a different topic, but it just angers me because I'm seeing the fraud that is going on right here in the state of Texas and across the country for that matter. So Anyway, let's get into— oh, oh, I'm sorry, here is the link for you if you want to read up on these countries that's going to be now banned from the visa applications and so forth. So I posted for you in the chat box. Now let's get into my analysis, what I'm going to be talking about today regarding Iran's option. So the way I structured this analysis for you I want to provide you a big picture. I'm not going to be limited only to the military aspect, but rather I'm going to be talking about, for example, the opposition movements like Mujahideen e-Khalq. We're talking about the interference from the, uh, the, uh, foreign agencies, the Mossad, the MI6, the CIA. We'll be talking about also the ability of Iran to jam Starlink connections, how this happened. All this I'm gonna be providing you in my own analysis, and I will conclude, uh, with an excerpt from my book, Volatile State: Iran in the Nuclear Age. Uh, and this you will— that's why stay with me till the end here, because it's, it will be very, very interesting for you to learn. So, so the idea of what I wanted to do in this analysis for you is I wanted to examine now this escalation or escalating tensions that's been going on for weeks. Don't fall for that. Yes, we don't know what Trump will do, but also you have to see the reality on the ground, and I'm gonna get into that. So the idea of this escalation, escalating tensions between Iran and the United States, which started in early 2026 of this year, and with it I wanted to explore the multiple dimensions. This is the point that I need you to get. There is no one, one, one track onto this. There are different aspects of it, uh, of, of the crisis here. And this will cover from the military aspects and a diplomatic response, uh, options for Iran if attacks, and also the impacts on the American statements by Donald Trump on the domestic Iranian pro— protests. And if this is not enough, you have to add into this analysis the prospects of opposition figure like Reza Pahlavi, the son of the former Shah. I have him right here, who's been in talks with Witakoff and Donald Trump, by the way. Of course, there are those who say, oh, he's a potential leader. I don't see that happening. The guy's been out of Iran forever. He has no clear understanding of really what's going on inside Iran. Second, Iranians will not accept him, simple as that. So because they know it's going to be— hypothetically, if he becomes a leader, it's going to be a second phase of an expansion of his dad's rule. And we all know how his dad ruled Iran after the, uh, the, the coup that, uh, took down, uh, Dr. Muhammad Mossadegh, who was democratically elected by the Iranian people. So, but one thing I need you to understand is that there are some viability channels, diplomatic one, behind the scenes. For example, do you know that it's been a contact between Iran and Israel? Don't be surprised. And I'm gonna— through a third party, of course. It wasn't a direct, uh, face-to-face. It was through a third party. And I'm gonna provide you, provide you the information about this. So, and this is where, of course, I'm going to have to highlight to you the idea of what will be the role of Iran's allies. So are we going to see the same scenario like in Venezuela? It's unlikely, but Iranians are smart enough to see what happened in Venezuela, and they took the precaution— precautions, uh, measures necessary to protect the regime. So, so, and this is where, uh, uh, I wanted to sort of, uh, uh, structure this analysis, uh, because I wanted to reveal to you or explain to you the complex situation regarding this protest that is going on right now. And this is where you are seeing now Iran's government is cracking down. They don't care what Donald Trump said, if you kill protesters, I'm gonna launch a strike. They want to hit and kill some protesters, but you have to understand who those protesters are. Who's killing who? This is where the media will not decipher for you the ins and outs. Some weapons, to my knowledge, have been smuggled into Iran. So this is where the idea of Starlink comes in and so forth. Foreign powers are engaging in influence operations on the ground. This is the reality of it, and that is what I need you, uh, to understand. Uh, of course, how Iran interprets now these events, because Iran will see it from one specific angle, and that angle is foreign conspiracy or foreign interference, which is nothing new. But you're gonna have to look at also the proxies that's gonna be involved into this. So the question I figured we ask first is, as the protests continue, which by the way, things have calmed down, so what are Iran's options hypothetically if it is attacked? So far we didn't see anything Israel is doing, you know, and that begs the question, Why will Israel not do anything? Because that's a perfect opportunity. Could it be— and I'm just throwing this out there for you to think— could it be that Iran sort of threatened to target Beimuna? Could it be also that Israel realized that it stands no chance against the overwhelming missile attacks if Iran launched all of them, including the hypersonic, because there is nothing that will defend Israel against it. So it becomes an issue of survival. I don't know for a fact that Iran— I'm sorry, that Israel does have the option of using nukes on the table, but we all know how it's going to end that, because you have two other countries that came forward and said, you know what, if you do that, Israel, you will pay at their price. And you know who those two countries are? It's North Korea and Pakistan. This is the interesting dynamics that I need you to understand, and this is tied to what I'm going to be talking about today as to why Turkey all of a sudden taking interest in joining the Saudi-Pakistani alliance. This is what's important to understand. Nonetheless, we need to ask the question. So if we are to go with the military response option. And remember, all I'm sharing with you now is just what if, because so far you should, you should read the landscape. And when you look at the landscape, what do you see? You see that the US didn't move any, any aircraft carrier, any battle group. You didn't see that the US moved any forces closer to the ground. The one thing that we see is that the US decided to sort of move out certain, personnel from Al-Udeid base. Now, yeah, I can see the cautionary measures into this, but at the same time, Iran already reached out to Qatar and informed them. And I believe they didn't disclose the content of the call, but if I am to guess, is that the, the foreign minister of Iran, Mr. Arabji, is telling the Emir of Qatar, we just wanted to give you heads up that should the US launch any attack from your territory, your territory becomes a target. In other words, that installation become a target. And that's why we're saying just what if, because here is the thing, Iran's Parliament Speaker has already warned US military forces And Israel will be legitimate targets if— this is a big if— if the US strikes. This is why the attack now is put on hold. Is this means that the US will never attack Iran? No. If the, if the, if the opportunity presents itself, the US will do it. Why? Because you have bloodthirsty members in Congress like Lindsey Graham. They're pushing for this. And I'm also believe, my own opinion, this time around Iran will not hold back because that's it. They're not going to be playing this. That's it. And who's going to be paying the big price into this is Israel. The survival of Israel now is going to be put— I saw an image last time during the 12-day war They turned the subway, I think subway station or something like that, into a shelter. And this is why I believe Iran in this case, should it be attacked, this time is going to unleash everything it has. Because there is something behind closed doors that's been going on since June of last year. And that has to do with Russia because remember, Russia did offer assistance to Iran, and Iran said no. And I have it on good authority, it was Iran that turned that down. The same arguments I can make about the Assad regime, the former, when, when Russia told Assad, we will be happy to get involved militarily, and he said no. So however, in the case of Iran, After the 12-day war, which some believe it should have continued this way, it put an end between Iran and Israel. I don't know what the outcome would have been, but suffice it to say that after that, Iran reconsidered its options and reached out to Russia. This is where the idea of shutting down Starlink came in, and I'll get into that in a second here. So So Iran has indicated that both Israel and US military facilities, centers, bases, ships in the region will be legitimate target. And I don't think so both the US and Israel are taking this lightly. Once again, I believe this time around Iran will not hesitate and they're not gonna wait if they are attacked. The response will come immediately because this is how I see it moving forward. Remember back in 2025, uh, US and Israel conducted the strikes on Iran nuclear program, you know, and that's where the Iran defenses have been, uh, sort of weakened. That's what prompted them after that to reach back to Russia and said, you know what, we need to reconsider. So, and this is again where the idea comes in. But here is the secret that has not been openly discussed, is that Israel and Iran exchange secret assurances via third party. And who the third party is, or was, was Russia, not the US, not Switzerland. Switzerland is not neutral. Don't ever fall for that. Switzerland is as, as corrupted as other, uh, uh, systems in certain parts of Europe. Not all of them, of course. So here is what happened. There were some leaks inside Washington. That's how usually it works. And if, if you work in Washington, you'll understand how this dynamics works. So, and those leaks from diplomats and some regional officers is that learned that Iran and Israel have exchanged reassurances. It happened in late December of last year, and this was done through a Russian mediator, and that one confirming that they had no intentions— meaning they, Israel and Iran— of launching of launching, or rather, a preemptive strike or preemptive attack. Remember, I didn't say an attack, I said a preemptive on each other. And that's to me make more sense. Otherwise, for what the US stated, that they will launch an attack, Israel would have preceded the US by this because it will be an opportunity to Israel that the US now is dragged into the war whether it likes it or not. So Israel not attacking Iran gives me an idea now that exactly this kind of, uh, assurances are holding so far. And this was confirmed from two other sources because the Israeli officials informed the Iranian leadership through Russia that they will not launch strikes against Iran, unless Iran was the first to attack Israel, which Iran will not do it, in my opinion, unless it is attacked. Because Iran sort of the— it's pragmatic. They're not gonna just willy-nilly go and attack. So, and this is how you have to understand where this is going and why it is important to understand. Then becomes the strategic positioning altogether. And when I say positioning, I'm referring to the challenges that facing each party. So because one thing is for sure, so far Iran— I won't go with those. I won't, I won't confirm what other analysts are saying that Iran has lost complete geopolitical status. Not necessarily. Yes, they lost some with the Assad being removed, with the, uh, Hezbollah being targeted by Israel, with the changes into Syria. Yes, it did lose some. However, when you realize the Saudis now are gloves off vis-à-vis United Arab Emirates, and when you hear the Saudis pushing for keeping the Iranian regime intact, that gives you an idea right there that the Iranian did lose all its geopolitical status. So, and of course, with the war of Israel against Hamas and so forth, you know, you combine all this because almost the support for Iran has been cut off. Only by these elements. So, which means that hypothetically, in the case of a war, Iran will not be able to count 100% or rely on, on these regional proxy forces as a buffer. That's what I'm referring to. And that leaves Iran at this point with the diplomatic option. So However, Iran is saying on one hand, we still committed to negotiations, so, uh, with the United States, which to me is— I don't know, it's playing diplomatically. Yes, it might make sense, but also it puts you in a weaker position because you are, by doing this, you are realizing who you give— who who has the upper hand. And you, in this case, the country that's saying this, in this case, that means you are confirming that status of that, in this case, United States has the upper hand in negotiations. When you say, you know what, no more diplomatic negotiations or talks, given the language coming out of Washington. Because what Donald Trump is doing is just blabbing. But, but we cannot ignore that the situation remains volatile. And this is where you have now Qatar stepping in and trying to mediate between the US and Iran to prevent an escalation. Because one thing for sure, this time around, it will be catastrophic for the entire region and even beyond. Because if Israel— and I, I kind of know this for a fact— if Israel's survival is at stake, they're going to resort to using nukes. If they use nukes, you have already North Korea and Pakistan threatening retaliation. We all know what it means. And this leads to the impact of the American statement, Donald Trump's statements on the protest, because we have to keep that in mind. To understand. Of course, the protests, when they heard this, they got emboldened. But who are those protesters? Are those Iranians? Yeah, to a degree, but you have to understand who's really involved into all this. And this is why when Donald Trump said, if any protesters is killed, we will launch a strike, the Iranian security forces The Iranian security forces went ahead and launched and killed some, but they were selective about this, the foreign elements or even the Iranian elements, the opposition that been provided either weapons or intelligence or what have you. And what did Donald Trump do? Nothing. So, and that is why They are those who are saying, oh, oh, no, no, no, protesters would have continued their protest without Trump's promises of protection. Well, I— it makes sense. It's because even the Iranian president is recognizing the issues on the economy inside Iran. So, and that is where when Trump said Oh, help on its way. In other words, giving a signal, just keep demonstrating. But at the same time, Iran's government intensified the crackdown. So, and even if we are to go with this, you saw the images of the crackdown on the, uh, in Germany of protesters, uh, uh, for the Palestinian cause. You saw the crackdown in France. Why nothing was said? Into that. And that's where you realize the double standard, the selective options. So, so, because what the Iranian government is going to move forward with, and it's already did, is to crash, to crush these demonstrations or protests, because they know. As a matter of fact, I read the first statements of, uh, of, uh, Ali Khamenei, the spiritual leader. Ali Khamenei, he said, distinguish between legitimate protesters and those who creating chaos. That was his way of saying there are two types here. Those who are protesting for the economic conditions have the right to do so. Those who creating chaos needs to be dealt with. And this is why It becomes now the war of information. And that's why the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei warned the US politicians to stop this deception, because it's deception. So, so, and even made it openly clear to the Iranians what we're looking at here. We're looking at— I'm using his word in quote— treacherous mercenaries, end of quote. And this is where the difference is. Of course, for the Iranian government, of course, that paved the way for using the American statements as justification for harsh action. That's what I'm saying. What Donald Trump says versus what he does. Wait and see. Because that is when— well, if you noticed, all of a sudden, once Donald Trump said what he said a few days ago, all of a sudden the protests became violent, the destructions of, you know, that is where the Iranian government had to crack down and even end up killing some. So because what Trump's saying, I'm going to intervene, militarily. But this in itself will be a double-edged sword, very, very double-edged sword, because if Trump does not follow now through with his own vow to protect protesters, so sort of the unrest he helped galvanize may be stamped out. In other words, be done with, or Yeah, stopped in that case. No, because in this case, what it mean? What does it mean? It means that the US potentially shares the responsibility for the bloodshed that took place. And this put the US in a precarious situation, as always, where its rhetoric sort of raised expectations among protesters, but the military interventions will carry enormous risks. This is exactly where the situation is as of today. And this leads us to talk about the Bahá'u'lláh role into all this, because the way you know it, that is foreign supported, it was the chants that the protesters were chanting about Bahlavi. So will Bahlavi be able to be a leader? No. Short answer is no. He won't survive. He won't make it. It's because the entire society is not in line with— yeah, you have the opposition part, and I'm going to talk about the groups, the two main groups for that. But for him as a leader in Iran is highly contested. So when considering the current position, what do you see? Do you see that Reza Bahlavi is currently possession— positioning himself as a leader of the Iranian democratic opposition? And this is where you have Western analysts, not all But some are pushing the narrative. You know what that narrative is? Is that Iran is on the verge of a profound transformation, and the regime is fractured, and the opposition is coordinated, which none of it has any shred of truth in it. So Because his secret meeting, if this was to be, why the, the meeting was secret? Of course, in White House, if you go and meet president, you have to sign book. That, that's the norm protocol. So, but why wasn't— where was the media? So, and the secret meeting with also Verkhov. So why would you meet with him? To discuss protest. Because he, meaning Reza Pahlavi in this case, want to pre-possess himself as the transitional leader if the regime fails. Is the same scenario like Corina Machado, the one in Venezuela. All of a sudden, Trump turned on her by saying she doesn't have any popular support. Is the same case for this guy. So, and the support for Iran in itself is unclear and is always mixed directions because this critical uncertainty for the support inside the country, it's not as clear as, as you and I understand when you support a group because it's difficult, it's challenging at this point to tell whether Bahá'u'lláh regime or Bahá'u'lláh name, I'm sorry, not regime, name. Bahá'u'lláh's name appearing frequently in protests. And that in itself will represent a broad public backing with the Iranian society, which is not the case. So, and this is why once again, Western analysts to justify this, they are arguing it from the perspective, oh, Many Iranians will accept him as a temporary leader— as preferable to the current circumstances? No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no! You're playing with words here to manipulate the masses into thinking, oh, he is the next leader because Iranians— I'm not going to say 100% of them— But the majority reject him. So, and I even, uh, I even, uh, had to dig into one particular article, and here is what I found. I found a 27-year-old protester saying, and I quote, everything Reza Pahlavi learned about ruling a country came from his own father who failed for a reason. End of quote. So I'm going to share the link with you and you can read it later on should you decide to do so, because he's trying to use his platform into all this and it's not going to work. And this leads us talk about the external support. So Because even if we are to go with Reza Pahlavi, you know, he's facing major challenges. You know, you have Israel on one hand that favors him. You all know why. But there is uncertainty, uncertainty about how Iranian inside Iran will support him. So, and as a matter of fact, some investigations were conducted by the Israeli media. Revealed that Israeli-linked digital influence campaign using fake social media accounts and AI-generated videos to promote Bahlaavi among Persian-speaking audiences. So the outcome depends heavily on whether the regime collapses, which I don't see, the current regime. And whether broad Iranian support for him materialized, which uncertain, and it's unlikely. So with this, we ask the question, how does Iran assess now the all these events? What the Iran government view the events through the deeply defensive lenses. Why? Because it interprets the protests as part of a coordinated foreign plot, while at the same time also acknowledging some domestic economic grievances. Nobody's denying, even the president of Iran, which by the way, he went ahead and dismissed the head of the central bank. But that might not be enough because soon you might have the Iranian calling for the president himself to resign and run another elections. And but at least he is acknowledging that let's first stop blaming Americans or whomever, and let's look at ourselves, the shortcomings we created regarding the economy. So, of course, for the Iranian regime writ large, the United States and Israel will be sort of accused of an R, accused of using hybrid methods, because this is where the info psyops comes in. Of course, the objective: destabilize the country. Is the same scenarios we did in Latin America. Remember back then in Colombia and how we, we pushed, or Panama in this case, or Guatemala and what have you, when we created these images of starvation and all that stuff, you know. And this is why the Iranian government wanted to make it clear to the rest of the country that these protesters are part of a foreign-backed campaign. This is where you see the, the protester and violence and so forth. And the hardline, the hard response, it came when the Iranian security services launched into dealing with the protesters because it'll be too late if you don't do anything right now. And once again, remember, you have to interpret this action by the security as a sort of— interpret it as a warning to Washington. Israel, to a degree. Israel will do it differently. And Israel does things differently. So, but the idea of that, the economic issues, the acknowledgement of the economic issues are real. The president, Massoud Brezhnev, recognized and acknowledged that the people have concerns and that the government is ready to listen to its people. But it didn't refrain from not mentioning that the United States and Israel are trying to solve chaos and disorder. So, and that's again where that problem is, because you have a problem when you have a population that is angry because of economic conditions. You know what's coming next. Look at history, just go into history and see the last one being the French Revolution, which even France right now is, is going in sort of that direct towards that direction. So now this leads me to talk about two main things. One of them, Starlink, and the other one, the opposition. For Starlink, we're going to have to understand how the— how was— how was Elon able to shut down Starlink? You know that you need some advanced system, which is— to those who say, oh no, no, no, no, it isn't accurate, I, I checked and, uh, fact-checked more than once from different sources to confirm this. So because one of the things, and I did a short clip for, for, for the community, I think I did it yesterday if I recall. Yeah, because here's the thing, Starlink has no official license to operate in Iran. However, thousands of its terminals have been smuggled inside the country in 2022. Under the Biden administration. So, and the reason for it, that tells you the Biden administration had that notion of you want to destabilize Iran. That's what I'm saying, two faces of the same coin, the Republicans and Democrats, they're both the same. There's no, you know, Americans are delusioned to think that one party is better than the other. No, because the system has been set that way for the last 150 years. You control the political process. That's why there is no third party in America. We'll never be a third party. So the whole reason why this, uh, terminal's been smuggled is to enable activists sort of to bypass the state internet blackout for this specific reason when there are protests or demonstrations. So, and the way you do this is by connecting it via low orbits. That's where the satellites of the Starlink are. This is why Starlink gets so concerned when China launched its own, because China has the capability to shut down even the satellites that are in high orbits. This is why You see, Iran wanted to link with the Chinese, uh, Beidou system. That's why the Russians use their own system. So it's because with all what happened, Iran was able to jam this particular systems. And how that happened is because the Russians provide the really upscale jamming technology. So, so, and of course, like I said, you go back to 2022 when the US authorized sort of relax under the Trump administra— the— I'm sorry, Biden administration relaxed the sanctions on communication tools, and that is where Starlink was able to provide services. So it's just for this scenario And the idea is that this Iran digital blackout has now deployed military jamming equipment. And where this came from? It was supplied by Russia. This brings me back to my earlier point that when the Iranians went back to Russia, I said, you know what, we will consider your support for this. For some reason at that time, Iran didn't want it. I don't know why. Why would you want to turn that down? But anyway, for now they're saying, and that's how they were able to shut down access to Starlink. So, and this, in my opinion, is a game changer. It is a game changer. Because if Iran is able to do this, what else the Russians provide the Iranians vis-à-vis major either missile, fire jets and so forth. Not the equipment, not the planes, the fighter jets, but just the equipment that deals with some advanced radar systems and so forth. And remember, Iran has developed some type of hypersonic. This is where the concern in Israel, because nothing in Israel will defend against the missiles from Iran. And Iran made it clear that it will launch 2,000 missiles all at once. I don't care how many systems you have to defend against this, you won't be able to. So this is on one side, okay? On the other side, you look at the opposition groups, and the first one that has to come to my— your mind is MEK, Mujahideen-e-Khalq, so known also as People's Mujahideen Organization of Iran, or PMOI. So of course this group's been around. I met someone in France when I was traveling last year who happens to be coincidentally that around. I knew it was Iranian because I could tell just from the sound of the accent and so forth. And I could tell, and I said, are you from Iran? He said, yes, I am. And one thing led to the next, and, and, uh, till, till he turns up to be a member of the Mujahideen-e-Khalq. You know, I'm not judging the guy. He was with his kids, his family, whatever. I'm not judging him, except that I had to ask him one question to see how truthful he is. And I said, do you know your organization does receive funding from Congress, our Congress? And he said, yes sir, we do. And right then I knew he was telling the truth. And I'm not judging him, I'm just saying. So, uh, to those who do not know, Mujahideen e-Khalaf was founded back in the '60s, I think '63 or '64. For those who know, uh, please just share it with the, uh, community. And the purpose of it, uh, of establishment was to overthrow the Shah at that time. But later the group sort of clashed violently with the Islamic Republic after the revolution. So, and that's where it led to its exile sort of, and the complexity of its history that involving Marxist Islamic ideologies and alliances with Saddam Hussein. Yeah, the one even— and because we were the one that told Saddam, we will provide you whatever weapon, so, to fight the Iranians, you know. Because if you remember, during that war 500,000 people, Iranian, were, were killed because we provided the chemicals for, uh, uh, for Saddam at that time. And this is why in 2003, it is where you understand how we justify certain things. In 2003, when we invaded Iraq, we lifted Mujahideen e-Khalaf in 2004 from the terrorist list. Because now they're going to be doing our bidding. And I was aware of, and I'm not— it's not classified to those who know where to look. I was aware of that the United States was training some of this mujahideen in Albania. I was one country where we did some training for those individuals. So then you have also the other group which known as the NCRI, the National Coalition of Iran. So now it's known as the National Council of Resistance of Iran. So, and this some sort of a broad opposition umbrella which was founded, a group, it was founded in 1981. And what was the purpose of it? Is to establish a secular Democratic Republic. Well, heck, Iran democratically elected Mohammad Mossadegh in 1952 and so forth, and we conducted the coup because we didn't like the outcome. But what's interesting about the NCRI is led by particular female, and that female's name is Maryam Razavi. Her dad was in charge before, so And this group is also including the People's Mujahideen Organization of Iran, or Mujahideen-e-Khalq. So, and that's where they created some sort of a parliament in exile. So this is what I need you to understand, the connectivity of this protest and where they are coming from and how they are sort of supported. And this leads me to go back to one point earlier that I mentioned about diplomacy. When you realize what the United States has been saying, wanted to do, and so forth, as, as geopolitical analyst, I will be thinking in terms of, okay, is this means that path to diplomacy has been closed permanently? Yes and no. This is one thing about you have to know, you know, are you going to trust the American government? So the path to diplomacy, in my opinion, as of now remains open, technically speaking, but it is some sort of fragile. So there's a wide gap. How can you sit with someone across the table when you know they are the one fermenting tensions in your country, the one, they wanted to turn your country upside down. So, and this is again where you start to realize why the, what's going on in Iran is not gonna end up with the fall of the regime because you need two main things. You need to have guns and you need to have support inside the system from two entities. Military and intelligence. None of those exist right now. No. In the case of Venezuela, slightly different, because it is my belief that it was someone inside the, uh, the close circle to Maduro that betrayed him. So otherwise, how can you have the, the, the birds flying in without radar seeing all this? But it doesn't mean that the entire military is on it or the entire intelligence community is on it. And this is again the two main elements that always require if you are to really have a successful regime change. And this is where you're gonna see now the public stance versus behind closed doors talks, like what I mentioned earlier. Whoever thought Iran will be talking to Israel through Russia behind closed doors about no preemptive strike. And the public stance regarding this diplomacy thing is sending mixed signals because both Iran and United States, both of them, they are so-called reaffirming their commitment to diplomacy. So, and this was during the last meeting of the, at the end of the year, if I recall, of the UN Security Council. At the UN. But at the same time, just because you mentioned that during the NSC, it does not, it does not mean that the gap is not there because the gap exists between what the Trump administration and Iran vis-à-vis the nuclear program. This is why now you see in the US does not talk much about missiles. Iranian missiles, but they'll talk about nuclear, nuclear program. So, and that is why Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araki told the parliament that Iran is not currently engaging in any negotiations with the US. So, however, things could change moving forward, but behind the scenes is a different story. So despite the public denial, there are signs of diplomatic engagement. And the way you know it, when the White House stated that Iranian officials have reached out to the US envoy Steve Werichow expressing a far different tone than what you are saying publicly. This is what the White House saying. I, I won't buy that because the White House could play this for domestic consumption, given that there is now pushback from this MAGA against Donald Trump. And especially now you find out people are angry as to why India is not included in the 75 countries, the list, when we're finding out more coming of more of the fraud from the Somali entities and from the Indian nationals, why India specifically is not included in it. This is why I won't buy what the White House is saying about, oh, Iran reached out to the US expressing, uh, different tones. No, no, no, no, no. So what exists right now is the stalemate. That is the way I see it. So because the current position of Iran it's different from what it is. Of course, Iran will say we are not seeking war, but at the same time, it's saying that we're ready to fight. If the US attack us, we will attack back. This is why personally, I feel this time around is going to be different. Let's hope it doesn't get to that. Let's hope it doesn't get to that. Then comes the idea of Iran's allies. Are they going to stand by it or they're going to abandon it? There are already some talks from some observers saying that Venezuela found out the hard way that its allies gave up on it. What do you think? Did Venezuela allies— we're talking about two main ones here, We're talking about Russia and China. Did they give up on Venezuela? And that's just question for you to think, because I want you to think outside the box. So could it be the same scenario here? However, when I read that North Korea and Pakistan threatening to retaliate if Israel end up using nukes, That tells me different story. So when you think about both North Korea and Pakistan, two major clients of the two main powers, Russia and China, you can read between the lines. Maybe in this case Russia and China did not need to come forward, especially the Chinese. Chinese do things quietly, even the Russians now. End up sending this jammer equipment? What else have they sent the Iranians? And this is why, in my opinion, once again, if the US was really serious about this, we would have seen movements of the aircraft carrier. I checked on this, and someone informed me, reliable, that there is a discussion right now to move the battleground the, the, the battle force from South China Sea. We do have a presence there and they're going to move it into the Middle East. Whether it's sort of 100%, I can't confirm that. But so far there is that thinking. And I don't see, because if they were, if the US was really committed to this, they would have moved everything by now. And again, this is again where you have to think about The region, the two main locations will be devastated. We're talking about Qatar, we're talking about Bahrain. Qatar has Al Udeid base and Bahrain has the naval, uh, the Fifth Fleet. They will be target, no exceptions, if the attacks are launched from there. Now Saudi is going to be limit, limiting their airspace because the Saudis do not want to see now regime change given their gloves off vis-à-vis United Arab Emirates. Turkey wanted to enter in a different alliance altogether. And are we talking about a Muslim NATO here? Not necessarily, not necessarily, but it will make more sense. But at the same time, there is the adage— to those who speak Arabic, the adage that goes, "Ittafak al-Arabo ala Allah yattafakho"— Arabs agree not to agree. This is why I'm saying this dynamics here. Let's not jump into that's it's going to be. One thing for certain is that Iran this time around will be prepared to just go, go 100% in retaliation if attacked. So, so when you think about allies, uh, the allies for Iran are sort of, you know, they appear to be willing to provide only selective support. I don't see them going for, uh, for a really, really some high-level stuff, because remember, there are certain military technology you do not want to transfer to others. Yeah, allies or not, you know, think about the idea of the nuclear submarines that We're going to be selling to Australians. Do you think the Aussie is going to have access to that? No, they will be operated by the Americans. Aussies will not have access to that stuff. So I will see the same argument. Or if there are joint military exercises, do you show everything you have? Not necessarily, because once again, Russia did offer Iran back then in June '25, but Iran refused or turned it down, not refused completely. And once again, like I said, the same way when they, Russia, offered Assad support, he turned it down. Now he's, you know, we saw the outcome. So, but the military support, so that is coming from, from, I'm sorry, Russia and China, because Iran has turned towards China and Russia. So, but I do not expect some significant defense or security support. And this will be almost echoing or reflecting the same scenario that took place in June 2025. Will be some differences to it later on, maybe, maybe not, but for now, I just don't see any signs. So, so, and this is why— and, and by the way, this is despite Iran entering into some strategic partnership with both countries. So because Iran now is going to have to deal with another problem, and you know what the other problem is? That India now is backing down from Shabahar project altogether. This is why I'm saying you cannot trust the Indians. You cannot trust the Indians. So India now is saying, oh, we're gonna have to, uh, go back on, uh, on the Shabahar projects and so forth, which Iran also has been investing into that. That's why you can't enter into any, any partnership. That's my warning to China. Do not enter in any venture whatsoever. Seek profit elsewhere, seek profit elsewhere. So, and here is my conclusion, because that's all I have to share with you here on these aspects. And I want to conclude this with, uh, with an excerpt from, uh, my Iran book that I addressed these particular aspects here. So, unlike I argued back then, the Middle East— or West Asia, that is— is bound to experience some sort of major political shift. That's what I said back then when I wrote the book, because Middle East is the way it is. So, and the chances might not be to the liking of the West, especially the United States. I predict that the region will enter into a new phase of its existence, one marked by even more political turbulence, which exactly what we're seeing now, a new political order, which what we are witnessing right now, sectarian tensions. The region also will witness the rising presence of global powers like Russia and China, whose role there throughout history has been somehow limited in comparison to the United States. So on the flip side, The region, meaning Middle East, that is, will also experience a new wave of trouble because of the ongoing upheaval. And this outcome certainly will reshape both the political outlook and the geo— geographical boundaries. This is what you see now in Syria, new borders. So So the new alliances will be forming. Yes, it could be along the religious sectarian or even ideological lines. That's of course, it's a foregone conclusion here. But as ambiguous as it might sound, the region will also, I argued back then, will witness increasing dialogue between US and China. Russia and Iran, which is exactly what we are seeing right now. So, and this dialogue, I argued back then, will consist of some sort of a new security architecture that is set upon a political landscape that is already shaped by geopolitical shifts, which what we are witnessing. So my guess was, and still is that the dialogue will include possible negotiations of how to readjust the strategic outlook and interests of all parties involved. And I concluded with this particular thing, is that time is in the essence. US policymakers drawing on leadership from both political parties must put the future of America's strategic interest before party loyalty and, and resolve to act on behalf of the country, not ongoing fomenting wars and tensions. If the geopolitical shift in the Middle East is not addressed immediately, accordingly, vigorously, and competently, the consequences will be dire. As the sun rises on the horizon, of a troubled region, I wonder whether the West will awaken soon and say good morning Iran. That's what I see going. So anyway, that's all I have to share with you today. I hope you all enjoyed this analysis here. One thing for sure is there is no war as of now. So makes you wonder. So We'll see. I'll keep an eye open on this, and if there is a major update, I will share this with you. Uh, to those who wants to support the channel, here is the link for that, and I'm going to share it with you in the chat box. That's for my upcoming trip to Asia. As you may know, I am planning on heading out to Asia in few months. So, uh, for, for now, we just putting the fundraising for this. We are about 4%. If you decide to contribute to this particular trip, I will be very, very grateful to you for that. And if you don't, that's fine also. Regarding the channel, you know the type of analysis you are getting here. I will greatly appreciate if you could support the channel. You know the content that I provide for you here, uh, it's based on a, on, on a, sort of extensive research that I conduct throughout the week to make sure you are getting accurate information and a reliable one, that is. So I will be grateful if you can support the channel should you decide to do so. Once again, thank you all for being here. Much appreciate you for keeping the, the, the conversation civil on the chat box, and I'm, uh, I'm very, very grateful to you for that. So, uh, oh, Raymond, you're almost welcome. You're almost welcome. To all of you, I really, I appreciate you, uh, with the comments when you say thank you. I'm, I'm very, I'm very thankful to you for, for, for, you know, showing the gratitude and respect and so forth. So, and the, the respect goes mutual, uh, back and forth. So thank you all for being here. Look forward to seeing you tomorrow. As always, remember, geopolitics impact your daily life. In more ways than one. Till next time, bye-bye.