The Longest US Carrier Deployment Since Vietnam And It's Still Not Over!

Hello everybody and welcome to Geopolitical Trends, where truth matters. Excited to be with you as always. Two missiles, one warship, and the US government saying, oh, it never happened. As a matter of fact, on May 4th, yesterday, Iran and America traded fires in the world's most dangerous waterways, the Strait of Hormuz. And what both sides are now pushing back and forth, or even hiding, or even not disclosing, could drag the entire planet into a war. So you have 20,000 sailors, US, that are trapped, okay? Then you have missiles that are flying as we speak, and the world oil supply hangs by a thread. And this, this is not a drill. This is reality. And this is the reality of the trade of Hormuz as of May 4th, 2026— yesterday, that is. But nobody's telling the full story. And this is exactly why I wanted to do this live stream for you. I'm going to be providing you my own insights about it. I'm going to provide you clips from different platforms and sources to let you reach your own conclusion, as we always do, and provide my own brief analysis, and, and we go from there. So what happened with this so-called Project Freedom? What is it to begin with? Because this is exactly what, uh, Donald Trump now is saying, oh, we're gonna launch a Project Freedom. So Donald Trump announced this yesterday, or Sunday evening, uh, Washington time, describing it as an attempt to free ships stranded by Iran's blockade. So that's exactly what Trump is saying. And he said that the US will guide now, uh, these ships safely out of these restricted waterways. First of all, what makes him think that he, he can do that, first? And second, what makes him think that the US ships will get so close to the Iranian shores or, or locations of the Strait of Hormuz? And here is what Trump said. Trump said that any interference with the operation will unfortunately have to be dealt with forcefully, in quote. We don't know Taco is just bluffing as always. Of course, the Central Command confirmed that US Navy guided missile destroyers transited the Strait of Hormuz. This is again where the lies comes in, and I'm going to be providing you both sides of the argument for this. And that this is what the Central Command report— and I read it yesterday, the, the declassified of course version of it— is that the two US-flagged merchant vessels successfully completed the passage as a first step. That's, in my opinion, that's disputed. I looked elsewhere and there was nothing that confirmed that. Plus, the Central Command, the Pentagon, the Trump administration have a track record of lying, didn't retracting the stories, and I will provide you an example of that one. So according to Central Command, the US deployments include the destroyers, more than 100 aircraft, unmanned platform, and approximately 15,000 service members. Oh, this is nothing for a show, no more no less. Even you have the Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth— the guy was never fit for the position— he's lying. You know why? Because he's saying this, and I quote, We control the Strait of Hormuz with helicopters and ships.

Really?

I mean, to me it just doesn't make any sense when they are lying openly, because the reality and the satellite images do not support that fact. So what actually happened, just to put it in perspective for you, because the picture is really complex is murky, to say the least, but it is also alarming. And, and from both, from the Iran side and from the American side, is— we are looking at a major— if this develops to the next phase where it will be a hot exchange of fires and artillery and so forth, that's going to be different dynamics because you have to consider what the Chinese just mentioned, stated this morning. Stern warnings for the Americans. And of course, this comes on the heels of the upcoming visit of Donald Trump to China mid-May, which is a separate topic for all this, which I will address for you some other time. So, but here is what happened. Iran fired missiles and drones, launched the small boats to target US flagships in the Strait of Hormuz as of May 4th, 2026. Yes, and I will show you a clip later on. And of course, the commander of the US Central Command, Brad Cooper, Admiral Brad Cooper— I think I have a picture of him, right? Yeah. You know, he's gonna have to toe the line by saying, of course, no vessels were hit and no one was injured, which is true on the last part, no one was injured, but the firing took place at least I have the pictures, I have the sort of the recording of it. But it wasn't meant, I think, and again, this is my own assumption, I think the Iranians weren't meant to hit the ship. They were meant to send a warning. That's why the projectile fell closer to the ship. And you will see in clip that I share with you later on. Later on, the US used helicopters to destroy the small boats and intercept the drones. Well, of course, we've heard this before, like what happened even in 2024 with the Ansarullah. Oh, the US destroyed the missiles or the drones from the Houthis when it turns out to be not the case. And as a matter of fact, a senior official from the US denied to Axios— and Axios, by the way, that's the back door for the US when the US wants to leak certain information I'm not saying that Axios, you shouldn't read, uh, their, uh, articles and so forth. All I'm saying is you have to be careful when you read the articles printed by Axios. And what Axios is saying, according to this official who denied that any US ship was struck by Iranian missiles— well, it depends what you mean by struck versus was there anything fired at all. And this is why the Central Command, on its account on X, denying the claim of a successful hit. But it was never a hit on the, on the boat to begin with, on the, on the US vessels. On the other hand, the Iranians are claiming that they struck and turned back the US warship, appears to to sort of to, to take a turnaround and left the Strait of Hormuz as it gets closer. So you have two claims here. We have the Iranian claim. The IRGC-affiliated Fars News Agency reported that Iranian forces fired missiles, which is true, at a US Navy frigate, which is true, near the, the port of Jask on Monday. Uh, I, I, I got a picture of the location right here. This is the location of the Jask Island. So it's not close to the Strait of Hormuz yet, but it's right here. This is on the Gulf of Oman, just to show you where that is. And claiming— this is what they claim— that the vessel was struck and forced to turn back after ignoring the warnings. This is the Iranian side. The American side, US, denied that it was— immediately, the, the Central Command immediately denied the claim. Stating, and I quote here, no US Navy ship has been struck, end of quote. And the Central Command went ahead and confirmed, uh, saying, confirming that the vessels are actively enforcing the blockade against Iranian, uh, ports. So we shall see. So I'm gonna play a clip for you. I'll let you decide, and you hear for yourself, and, and, and you make your own judgment, uh, for this one. All right, let me play this one. It's in English, I believe. Ah, yeah, let me see.

The latest—

yes, it is in English, so I don't need to do translation for you. Please take a listen here.

Warning coming out of Iran is once again putting the Strait of Hormuz at the center of global attention, and this time the message is being framed in the harshest possible language at a moment when the wider regional crisis already looks unstable. Iranian military-linked messaging is now signaling that the waterway may become the next major pressure point in the standoff with the United States. The tone is severe, the timing is deliberate, and the target of the warning is unmistakable. It is not just a slogan designed to dominate headlines. It is part of a broader effort by Tehran to project resolve, raise the political cost of US pressure, and remind Washington that any attempt to tighten control over the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a much wider confrontation. In simple terms, Iran is trying to send one clear signal: if pressure continues, the response may not stay limited to speeches and warnings.

Once again, I'm, I'm— again, I'm going to be provide different links and so forth and with clips, and you decide for yourself. So the next clip that I'm going to be playing for you. This is about what took place in the Strait of Hormuz. So let's take a listen, please. And I think, I think is in English. Yeah, it is in English. So, okay, share screen. Here we go.

Let's—

let me—

the Strait of Hormuz.

Yes, it is in English here, and we'll take a listen here, please.

The Strait of Hormuz has transformed from a trade route into a high-stakes trigger point, with the IRGC declaring the waterway "completely closed" once again, follows the launch of the US Navy's Project Freedom, a high-risk mission to escort stranded commercial vessels through the blockade. Technically, the IRGC has responded by drawing a red line between Hengam Island and Khumu Barak. Warning that any ship attempting to pass under US protection will be met with a severe response. The visuals of Fajr series rocket artillery firing. Iran's asymmetric strategy using mobile truck-mounted MLRS systems like the Fajr-5 to saturate coastal targets.

Once again, it just— I wanted to— I want you to have the full range of sort of, uh, uh, information to help you or assist you in reaching your own conclusion. So when we look at the broader context of, of this particular development, it's a major one because this crisis of course has been building for a while. And we're not gonna go back to the beginning because you all know the story of this. What you need to understand also is that the, this, uh, the Hormuz, uh, as a choke point through which roughly 20, almost 20 to 25% of the world, uh, seaborne oil and 20% of the global LNG, liquefied natural gas, pass through. And this one has been largely blocked now by Iran since February 28th, 2026. And that's, of course, you know, the, the, the whole, uh, story how it's all started. We're not going to get into that. And here is the important information. The IMO The International Maritime Organization, known as IMO, estimated that now, as of today, there are about 20,000 seafarers— people who work on ships and so forth— are stranded on roughly 2,000 vessels in the Gulf near the Strait of Hormuz. As of today, that is the, the latest, uh, uh Okay, I'm still here. All right, we don't know what happened, but anyway, uh, the Strait of Hormuz, and this is because these vessels now that are stranded there, they're running critically low on food fuel and water. And this is why the IMO, the International Maritime Organization, have recorded the events that at least 19 attacks on vessels since the conflict began, and they were about the death of 10 seafarers and injuring, uh, the, uh, uh, and 8 of others were injured. And this was, was, was not reported in the US, of course. So I'm gonna provide you the link of where this information come from, and I read it in Arabic, but it's translated into English. So why is this significant? Why is this development significant? And there are 4 or 5 key points. Number 1, the ceasefire is effectively dead in the water as we speak. And this is why you have the US Admiral, uh, Cooper, that is, he's refusing to address whether the US-Iran ceasefire that began on April 8th has ended. He's not saying anything. So number 2, Iran is expanding its targets. But again, you have to be careful about this particular one, and I'm going to tell you why in a second. UAE said its air defenses intercepted 4 missiles launched from Iran. How do we know that? What if some other entity launched the missile and blame it on Iran? I don't trust what the United Arab Emirates is saying anyway. Could it even be the US that is doing that so they can provoke United Arab Emirates into entering into the war? Because US now is stuck by itself. The Gulf states said, we, we don't want to get involved militarily. You deal with it, America. That's your issue. And this is why I'm not buying the arguments from United Arab Emirates. But suffice it to say that Iran is expanding its target. Number 3 is that the rule of engagements now have escalated. So the rule of engagement that you and I understand how it works and all that have changed completely. Because what happened now is that both locations, in the US and in Iran, are authorizing to strike immediate threats against ships that cross the strait on both ends, which means now there is decentralized decision-making. Okay, number 4 is that the logistical math of all this is very, very daunting. What do I mean by this? As I said, there are about dozens of naval vessels capable of defending the shipping on the paper. So however, and remember, dozens— before the war, there were more than 100 ships transited the strait daily. You don't have that anymore. And number 5, if you have the global economic, uh, stakes are very enormous if this escalates to the next phase. And this is again where you think about this. Of course, the West is gonna, uh, major think tanks in Washington is going to be arguing this from the perspective of freedom of navigation. So this is what they're going to be, because maybe the Trump administration trying to stabilize the market But even the same Trump, that his family are, are, are, are capitalizing on the war as we speak. And I'm gonna share something with you in a second here. So, and this is again where you have to think in terms of, of where this is going as far as what happened to the oil prices, uh, if, and the impacts or the big blow to the global economy. And regarding the The Trump family, particularly Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump— those are sons of Donald Trump— they have been seeking financial— they sought financial gain from this 2026 conflict with Iran through investments in drone technology, including— there is one particular firm, it's called Powerus, and I have a link of it because I have to look it up and read up what's going on with it. I put it in chat box for you guys. They are competing for the Pentagon contracts. And even now, is there's information coming up to the surface that Jared Kushner, son-in-law of Donald Trump, ties to the Middle East. The Saudis gave him $2 billion for his investment company, okay? And guess what? The investors get zero return on the investment. That is why you're seeing Jared Kushner going to the Middle East. Part of these negotiations have nothing to do with peace. It has to do with money. So just, this is FYI. So the bottom line too is this aspect of it is that the Iranian missile strike, whether you want to call it claim or not, it's up to you. I'm going to be showing you more clips and you decide for yourself. The Pentagon is saying, oh, those are false. Those are exaggerated. And the reason they're saying they are exaggerated, because those are meant for domestic propaganda purposes. But tell me, since when Iran's been doing this? When they said we're gonna fire, they do fire. They do follow through with that. And again, I'm not defending Iran here. I'm defending what's true. Truth matters. And when you hear the lies coming out of Washington and the Pentagon and Central Command versus what the reality is, it becomes my responsibility at least to make sure to sort of put it on the table for the community and let you decide. And to me, the big concern is more about the next phase, the next step, because US and Iran now are in an active, direct kinetic exchanges, and let alone it is conducted in one of the, the world's most critical maritime chokepoints. That is where my concern is, because you think about this so-called ceasefire is dead anyway, no longer functional. And the big question that we all have to ask is whether this is going to spiral into a full resumption of major hostilities or whether diplomacy will work. We don't know. I do remember putting a question for the community for a survey as to whether, in your opinion, what will Trump do, whether he's going to go for a war or he's going to go for diplomacy. And as a matter of fact, let me look it up quickly here, if you allow me. Uh, I put the question, will Trump avoid military escalation in the Strait of Hormuz in favor of diplomacy? 19% of you said yes, 75% of you said no, and 6% said, uh, we don't know. And appreciate you taking part of, of this particular, uh, uh, survey. And again, that, that's worth asking the question. So where is going to be critical now is the next few days. Literally between now, the way I look at it, between now and Friday. And I'm gonna keep my eyes open on this to make sure, uh, first of all, to keep you updated on what's going on and, and to make sure that you get the accurate information. If the truth matters to you, hit like, subscribe, and tap that bell. No spin, no agenda, just the stories They don't want you to know. So don't watch from the sideline. Be part of the movement. Your support keeps the truth alive. Thank you very much. And indeed, they don't want you to know the truth. That's the US. Here's a picture that the US ship has been attacked, struck, whatever term you want to use. But the aim, in my opinion, was not to hit it, it was to send the signal. So, and again, I will play more and more clips as we move forward. But here's the thing that you need to understand. Trump and his defense secretary, uh, Pete Hegseth, they tend to lie. This is nothing new. You've known it before. I've disclosed it on many occasions. This is why Trump had to surround himself with yes sir individuals. Those with no backbone to take stand for when it matters to say the truth. They just don't have it because they are after political career and what have you. More prerogative to them because the situation on the ground, I'm not denying, is murky, it is complex. I'm not denying this. And of course the US is going to be now walking a fine line because what you're going to be reading, should you decide to read down the road is that you're going to read that the US was not initially disputing that something happened, only that a ship, a US ship, flagship, that is a naval asset, was struck by a missile. That's the only thing that— oh, oh, that one didn't happen. And that, in my opinion, is very meaningful distinctions you need to understand. That's how you understand the manipulation of wording. So because the Iranians stating that we fired, Central Command is denying that. We could argue that for both self-interest accounts, each one of them will have to say whatever. And this is why sort of an independent verification is an active— in an active conflict, uh, conflict zone is extremely difficult in real time. And this is where you will consider what are the alternative of finding out. And I'm going to tell you what should settle this issue moving forward, beside the clips that I'm going to be sharing with you. But one thing for sure I need you to understand about Trump and Hicks. Here is, uh, Donald Trump and about Pete One thing I need you to understand, and the thing is, is that many journalists— it's not just my word— many journalists and analysts share one particular concern, and that concern is about lying. Why? Because there are, or there is rather, a documented record of this administration making false and misleading statements about military events, including— this is the key, and this is why, why, uh, Pete Hegseth yesterday came on right away and said, we control the Strait of Hormuz— including initial denials which later on are contradicted by evidence. That's again my point. I'm going to share with you both sides. Because you need to hear both sides. But at least I want you to know there is a documented record of this administration making this false accusation. Even military commanders like Admiral Cooper— now some say, oh no, he's an honest person, whatever. Well, I, this, I don't agree with that. And I know some— I worked for some generals. There are some decent generals out there. But I also know how it works in Washington when pressure comes from the top for them to change the narrative, because they are looking— especially if they are only 2-star general or 3-star general, they are looking for the next rank, 4-star general. And the 4-star general only made once recommendation is made to the president. So you put the 2 and 2 together and figure out— but I'm not denying there are good generals out there. So, and there are those now who saying about Admiral Cooper that he has some sort of a professional and legal accountability in, in comparison to those elected politicians, because elected politicians don't— they are corrupted to the core. But that does not make them immune from pressure to downplay bad news. That's my point. And it's worth for you to distinguish institutional military reporting from the political spin. But the institutional military reporting is also subject to manipulation. I was aware of a case where a report, an intelligent report, intelligence report from DIA, had to be manipulated. That was an old story, way back. I'm not going to get into it. I wrote an article about it. Back when I used to write for the Huffington Post, and I document that one. And this is why you need to understand why, for example, in the case of, uh, Hegseth, why he went ahead and ousted a good general, Army general, uh, the Army Chief of Staff, General Randy George. It's because George wasn't willing to compromise. That's what I'm saying. There are good generals out there. And by the way, Peter Hegseth not just fired General George— Randy George— fired two other generals. And it shows you right there, because they are not willing to play ball with a lion. So let me go back to the point where I told you, uh, when I told you that, uh, uh, how do we settle this particular confusion and so forth. Well, there are ways of settling this, and I have 3 suggestions for that. Number 1, satellite imagery of the alleged strike location near the Jask Island. And I can say that if the Iranians want to prove to the world that this happens, all they need to do is ask the Chinese. Chinese have Beidou, And the imagery of Beidou, I've been seeing it, is deadly accurate. As a matter of fact, it was Beidou that provided the Iranians with the location of the US assets in the region. That's one. Second point is the third-party reporting from vessels in the area. And this is again where you're going to have to fall on either Chinese or Russian imagery because imagery cannot— yes, imagery can be to a degree manipulated, but not those kind of high-resolution ones. And third element, or third point, is the physical damage assessments from some other navies. That's the only way I see it. So now with this, I found myself asking another fundamental question which we ought to ask, and I always ask this question because it's what's at the heart of everything that is surrounding this conflict, is what are the security and the geopolitical implications of this particular development? Once again, go back to before the conflict. Roughly 25% of the world's seaborne oil, 20% of the LNG, pass through the Strait of Hormuz on a daily basis. Okay, because the Strait of Hormuz— that is, uh, let me put up the, uh, image for you to see— the Strait of Hormuz is not just a regional issue, it is the jugular vein of a global energy economy. And any sustained military confrontation there has cascading now effect on oil prices, inflation, economic stability worldwide, especially for the energy import-dependent nations like Japan, like South Korea, and most of Europe, and even India to a degree. So that's one of The second point will be the collapse of the ceasefire framework in itself. That is a major security concern and implications of this. And this is why, once again, I'm— I find myself need to repeat what I said earlier about Admiral Cooper, okay, declining to address whether the US-Iran ceasefire that began on April 8th is now over. Whether some journalist has asked him directly or not, that's beside the point. And, and why is this important? Because this ambiguity is so dangerous in itself. It's very, very dangerous. A ceasefire that neither side is willing to formally declare dead. Go back to North— the Korean conflict. We're still basically on a freeze. The conflict has never been over. This is why we are not sort of threatening or, uh, or provoking the North Koreans, because we know what they're going to do, because technically the war has never ended. And in the case of Iran and the US, that's it, because now you have the US doing what it's doing, you have Iran doing what it needs to do, And that's now creating some legal and strategic gray, gray area. And why is that important from a geopolitical perspective? Because any miscalculation now becomes more likely, and that in itself is going to translate into the security, uh, uh, landscape. And so far, whether you agree or not, Neither side, in my opinion, neither side has a clear off-ramp. But at the same time, neither side want to be seen as the party that formally ended the truce. And of course, Israel is not in the picture at all because Israel succeeded in putting the US up front for the war and they took backseat and watch. And here is what an Iranian senior lawmaker explicitly warned, that any American interference in the new maritime regime of the Strait of Hormuz. In other words, maritime regime, that means the protocol that has been now put, will be considered a ceasefire violation, which the US already did. And this idea of this Project Freedom Uh, because to the Iranian, this Project Freedom crossed the line from day one. This is why they had to fire warning shots, and that is why Iran's response was, one, predictable, and second, likely pre-planned. Number 3 is the escalation dynamics. Because this is where the risk of miscalculation— this is, in my opinion, as a geopolitical analyst, as one who studied security, international security, this is arguably the most dangerous implication, because you have several factors that can make accidental escalation to a broader war more likely that cannot be controlled. Because you have now change in the rule of engagement. That's one, because now US forces is telling the commanders you are authorized to strike immediately. In other words, you don't need permission from Washington. IRGC fast boats on Iranian missiles positions can engage when it deemed necessary. So that gives now the front line crossing the strait— that include the IRGC and so forth, uh, uh, including the commanders— significant now latitude to take off offensive actions without political authorization from either locations, Washington and Tehran. And this is exactly the kind of decentralized authority, if I am to use history that has historically produced unintended consequences or escalation. Just look back in history when this— this number 4 is the Gulf States, which they are in a precarious position due to their own making. They're the one who allowed the American presence. Qatar has the largest US base in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain You know, why are they— and, and when they say we are neutral, don't trust that. Don't trust that. Especially the UAE, another Gulf Cooperation Council state, now are caught in an extraordinarily difficult position once again because they host US— major US military installations are, are deeply economically intertwined with the US and the West writ large. But on the other hand, they also share a neighborhood with Iran. As a matter of fact, they do some business with Iran. And this is why I don't buy this argument that it was Iran that targeted the, uh, the, uh, United Arab Emirates, uh, uh, Fujairah oil industry zone. I, I, I'm not convinced. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, but I stand by my conviction. I believe a third party fired that to create— we've seen it before. Go back to even back in the '60s with the USS Liberty, when Israel targeted the USS Liberty and blamed it on someone else so the US can get engaged. And one thing is sure is that those states, those Gulf states, cannot remain neutral forever.

They can't. They can't.

They're gonna have to make a decision, which they are not willing to do because they can't. They're so weak because it was all about survival of the regimes, not about the peace of the people. And particularly Saudi Arabia. That's why they went ahead and gave Jared Kushner, Donald Trump's son-in-law, $2 billion in investment. And the investors got zero, nothing back on it. So, so the Arabia will be watching very, very carefully because Saudi decision to openly align with the US military operations, or conversely, because it has either to do that or it has to sort of seek a separate accommodation with Iran. And I remember when I wrote my Saudi book, I addressed this particular point when I, I devoted like few pages into what if a war between Iran and Saudi Arabia erupts, which I just played that hypothetically. And I argued that it will take Iran no more than 3 weeks to wipe out the Saudi forces because Saudi forces, they Without the US, they can't do nothing. And this is where the Saudis will have to think, because they have to either stay with the US and bear the risks or seek separate accommodations with Iran, which in my opinion, Iran will be willing to accommodate. And if that happens, especially the latter, if that happened, mark my word on it, that will dramatically shape the, the geopolitical landscape of the region and also the balance of power. I, uh, I had a chance to read a good article, uh, uh, by an analyst in the Middle East, so I'm going to post it for you in the chat box. You can read it. Now let me share another clip with you. Once again to— because, uh, because, uh, I don't know if I— I don't think so. I played this earlier. Now I can't remember. And please, please tell me if I did. You know, I make mistakes also. Uh, tell me if I did so I won't have to repeat myself.

Yeah.

Uh, all right, let's take a lesson here. It's in English.

Has transformed from a trade route into a high-stakes trigger point, with the IRGC declaring the waterway completely closed once again. Follows the launch of the US Navy's Project Freedom, a high-risk mission to escort stranded commercial vessels through the blockade. Technically, the IRGC has responded by drawing a red line between Hengam Island and Khumu Barak, warning that any ship attempting to pass under US protection will be met with a severe response. The visuals of Fajr series rocket artillery firing, Iran's asymmetric strategy using mobile truck-mounted MLRS systems, like the Fozzer 5 to saturate coastal targets.

Okay, I just want again to, uh, do this through this way for you to not only provide you the analysis aspects of it but also combine it with imagery that may make sense to you or not. But again, I trust your judgment. Don't just because I said it—

what?

No, no, no, do your own homework. And please, if you disagree with me which I welcome your, your disagreement because that's how we learn from each other. So, uh, the other point that I want to mention briefly here has to do with the information war and credibility. And this again, I'm not denying that Iran doesn't do that. Both sides, we do it. It's part of warfare, simple as that. The next key point that I found very interesting— as a matter of fact, I wrote an article last night on Substack. Uh, I don't know where— if I can get to it quickly here.

Let—

just hold on a second, guys. I'm gonna get the article and post it for you. Uh, it's because, uh, my thinking was, okay, what are the importance of this particular— uh, yeah, I have it right here. So I'm gonna— I'm gonna post it for you if you get a chance to read it, and then it'll make more sense to you once, uh, once you read it. Uh, it's China, Russia, and the multipolar angle. Very crucial because this dimension is underappreciated. Not a lot of people talking, people in the know, people, geopolitical analysts in, in the field, uh, talking openly about it because everything is consumed by what's going on because it's fast developments you have to keep up with. But, but Iran has already announced, and this is nothing new, that ships from China, Russia, Iraq, and Pakistan— and I think even announced India, but that was back then. Now Iran needs to stop Indian ships from crossing. Forget, because what India is doing behind the scenes, stabbing Iran in the back, you're not going to trust in Indian government. So what Iran is saying is that they will allow— they have allowed this transit of the ships through the Strait of Hormuz while Western flag ships remain blocked. And this is a deliberate geopolitical wedge strategy. This is not about flexing muscles and what have you. No, it's not about that. Iranians are playing it very smartly. Because that's what it is. Iran is using the strait to reward multipolar partners and punish Western alliance in a subtle way. And now you have this so-called Project Freedom directly challenges that arrangement. The US is concerned. So if the US, and this is a big if, if the US succeed in reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which I don't think so, for all shipping, that means Washington has succeeded in denying Iran that leverage. And I don't think so the US will succeed in reopening the strait based on what I know and re-read before and whatever. There is no way. Iran has massive surprises, many surprises for the Americans. And if it fails if this initiative fails or escalates. Because hypothetically, if it escalates— this is again where the geopolitical calculations come in— it hands— it will hand China and Russia a significant sort of strategic victory. Because why? For a simple reason, like I argued in the Substack article. It demonstrates the limit of the American naval power projection, especially for China. China has enormous stakes here, especially with the upcoming trip of Donald Trump mid-May, because China also, you need to understand, it is the world's largest oil importer, deeply, deeply, uh, uh, depends heavily on, on, uh, on the Gulf energy. So Beijing is likely watching Project Freedom with some sort of a mixture of relief, if I may use, you know, because China will want to keep the flow of oil, which is important, because that's the mixture I'm referring to. Mixture of relief, meaning that it wants the oil flowing, but also an opportunity which means it can, meaning China, it can position itself as a responsible mediator while the US militarizes the situation. And the last point is the humanitarian dimension, which by the way, that's nothing but a ploy to divert the attention. The reason why Donald Trump came with this term Project Freedom because they want to use the humanitarian aspect. Let me explain this briefly here, and before I move on, like I said earlier, the IMO, International Maritime Organization, estimated that about 20,000 seafarers are stranded on roughly 2,000 ships in the Gulf. Okay, why is this important? It is important because Donald Trump's framing of a Project Freedom as humanitarian operation is strategically shrewd approach. I will give— not him, but whomever advised him. Donald Trump doesn't think in this term. Regardless of its sincerity, we know he's not sincere about that, but because it makes Iran resistance to the operation looks like a hostage taking. Of innocent civilians. This is the calculation. This is why this framing, especially if it gains traction internationally, could help build a broader coalition supporting the US operation and isolate Iran diplomatically. However, I am not convinced 100% about its success. It's because Iran made it clear, any ship that crosses here will be attacked. Straightforward. They don't care which ships— British, German, French, what have you. The only one allowed is the Chinese, the Russians, Iraq, uh, and I don't know, India, I think. I don't know. So far, back then, India was allowed, but maybe Iran will block India as well, and they need to. So the overall assessment of this particular development is that as of yesterday May 4th, 2026. This day represents now the effective end of the ceasefire friction, not in a good way, but rather the beginning of new, more openly contested phase of the conflict, one that is, in my opinion, dangerous and very concerning to me. And that's now this, this phase of the conflict, the new one that is fought now primarily in and around the world's most economically critical waterways. So the core danger that I want to leave you with to understand is not that either side wants the full resumption of a major war.

No, no, no, no.

But that the combination of changed rules of engagement, the active kinetic exchanges, expanded air and targets, and reliable communication channels where a single miscalculation— only takes one miscalculation— a US strike on an Iranian missile battery, an Iranian missile that actually sinks a US vessel or hit destroyer, could trigger an escalatory spiral that neither side can easily stop. This is why I'm saying the next few days is going to be crucial, and I'm going to keep an eye open for you And we'll do live stream as we move, uh, uh, we move forward in the weeks. So let me share some clips with you, 2 or 3, then I'll do my conclusion like we always do. And the first one that I'm gonna share with you, and I'll do the translation because it's short, uh, but I had to listen to it and, and show you the clip. The reason why I'm— I want to do this is because, uh As I said, the, the next phase is what concerns me the most, and, and, and my responsibility is to see where the trend is headed and try to get ahead of it by providing you information that will be useful to you in understanding how this conflict will evolve moving forward. Because in the world of geopolitics, nothing is constant. In the world of international security, nothing is constant. Everything is moving faster and faster. So let's take a listen. Not listen, I'm going to do translation for you, but I'm going to play the clip, let you see the imagery, and I'll do the translation for you. Sorry, sorry, sorry. That was in Arabic. Here we go. What it says is an Iranian naval force is threatening US destroyers in the Arabian Gulf. The Ghadir or Ghadir-class submarines, which entered service in 2007, were specifically designed for operation in the shallow waters of the Arabian Gulf. They are derived from North Korean Yono-class submarines, which are accused of sinking a South Korean warship in 2010. The submarine's small size requires only 7 personnel to operate. Allowing it to travel at speeds not exceeding 10 knots. It is equipped with two 533mm torpedo tubes and is designed for ambushes in shallow waters where larger submarines struggle to maneuver. It is used in wave attacks to encircle warships and prevent their escape. Iran has deployed approximately 20 of these submarines in the Arabian Gulf. Coinciding with US threats. This is why it's important. I think I have a picture of those submarines, if I still do. Uh, yes, I do, right there. Those are Iranians, 7-man crew. That's it. So, and, and again, it's, it's the thinking in terms of the, uh, the, uh how they can move faster and so forth. Next clip will be about some types of missiles here. Okay, let me share it here and I'll do a translation for you. Once again, it's very, very short, and once again, it's just to understand what, what Iran is doing. Uh, let's take a lesson here. Oh, not a lesson, but just watch the, uh, okay, why is this one not working? Okay, hold on a sec, just bear with me, guys. There we go. All right, what it says is, uh, uh Swift as lightning, precise as an arrow, it is invincible, unstoppable, and leaves settlers no chance to escape. It is Iran's Fattah missile, which has ushered in the confrontation between Tehran and Tel Aviv into a new phase of escalation. Fattah is Iran's first hypersonic missile, boasting a speed of Mach 15 and a range of 1,400 kilometers. Its flight to the heart of Tel Aviv takes a mere 6 minutes. It possesses advanced maneuverability, capable of altering its trajectory mid-flight. It masterfully evades radar detection and requires no forward deployment to the front line, as its range, launched from deep within Iran, insufficient— is sufficient to strike any sensitive facility within the Zionist entity. The launch of Fatah missile at this juncture in the conflict constitutes a strategic deterrent aimed simultaneously at both Tel Aviv and Washington. The Iranian message is unequivocal: should any large-scale aggression occur, particularly involving direct US participation, the response will not be limited to conventional ballistic missiles and drones Rather, the adversaries will face a weapon against which their current defensive systems are utterly powerless. Fattah has burst onto the scene, transforming the confrontation between Iran and Israel from traditional war of attrition into a high-stakes technological conflict, one where speed, precision, and penetration are the keys to decisive victory. Yet for all its danger and lethality, Fatah represents merely the first message among a host of strategic options Tehran holds in reserves, options that, if, uh, that its officials assert will take both Tel Aviv and those orbiting within its, uh, its sphere of influence completely by surprise. Once again, to, to make a point, and the reason I wanted to share this clip, because I wanted to do it before my next clip, which is the last one here, uh, because I, once again, I found myself thinking now on a daily basis about this particular, uh, uh, option here. But this one is in English, uh, let's just take a listen. And I did talk about it before, but I want you to hear it from someone else.

Yeah, Israel will not be better off. So then Israel goes ahead and nukes Iran, is my— yeah, Israel will not be better off. Even if Iran is turned to glass, 92 million people killed, this I think will hasten the end of Israel. The problem with the nuclear weapon against Iran is that radiation will to waft over to Saudi Arabia, to the UAE. That's going to waft over to Qatar. Think about this as Chernobyl on steroids. That radiation will not stay limited. Once we start to discuss these unthinkable— this becomes unbelievably horrible for the entire Persian Gulf and probably knocks out that 20% of the world's oil for what, 20, 30, 40 40 years.

Okay, that is the reason why I wanted to share the missile part of that, because Iran, like I, like, like I mentioned earlier, Iran has many options. We don't know all of them. Of course they're not going to disclose that. So, and, and what Iran did with Fatah missile, it's just one of the first messages They have many. That's why the US will have to think twice about this called the, the, the, uh, what Donald Trump just saying about this Project Freedom. I, and I think twice because if you have a US aircraft being targeted and hit hard, if you have US missiles sinking, that's the, that's, that's it. That's it. It's over. No matter what the US does after that, because we're gonna be thinking in terms of a nuclear option, but I hope it never gets to that. So, so here is my conclusion for you, uh, uh, because when you think about now this naval standoff that is going on right now, because it began as a naval standoff, no more, no less, in, in one of the most critical, uh, waterways, now has evolved into something far more dangerous, a direct military confrontation between two nuclear-capable powers. And remember, I am mentioning two nuclear-capable powers. Why am I saying this? It's because the recent intelligence estimates in the US suggest that Iran can, can build the bomb if he wants it. And this is not when you have the fight over economic lifeline of the global economy. So this so-called Project Freedom was sold to the world as a humanitarian mission to free 20,000 stranded sailors and restore the flow of oil and commerce through the Strait of Hormuz. Well, good luck with that, Donald Trump, because here's the harsh reality. Within hours after the announcements, On the launch of this so-called Project Freedom, missiles were flying, drones were intercepted. That's exactly what happens. And Gulf States were under wondering what's gonna do. And both Washington and Tel Aviv, they are perplexed, they are confused as to what needs to be done. Because as of now, the Strait of Hormuz is closed. Yeah, that's the harsh reality. The targeting of the US frigate is reality. And that's, that's one thing that now Washington is trying to figure out what needs to be done about it. Because what makes this moment unique or literally uniquely terrifying, in my opinion. It is not the missiles themselves, it's the environment surrounding that. Because the ceasefire that exists, which is only on paper, the rule of engagements that you and I know now gives the frontline commanders the authority to strike without political approval. You don't need approval. And the world is not yet at a war. We're not there yet, but it's standing closer to the edge because at any point in the recent history, that is where the concern is. And the way I look at that, why I said between now and Friday, because I'm going to keep an eye on some major capitals. We're talking about Tehran, talking about Washington, talking about Moscow, talking about Tel Aviv, talking about Beijing, and I may even think about Pyongyang, North Korea. Because what's going to happen within this deliberate behind closed doors conversations will determine whether the May 4th, 2026, the date is remembered as the day where cooler heads have prevailed, okay? Or it will be considered the day when the world slipped, walked into something from which there was no return. That is again the concern, and I'm gonna be keeping, as I said, keeping an eye on it. So I want to leave you with one question here, because I always like your— and thank you, by the way, thank you all for those who comments, and I read your stuff. I might not respond to all of them, but I appreciate you. Uh, uh, both the US and Iran now controlling the narratives. We know this. Washington is denying any ships were hit. Tehran is saying a major military victory. And you have 20,000 sailors trapped. You have global oil supplies threatened. And you have a ceasefire that exists in name only. So in your opinion, Do you believe either government is telling the truth, the full truth? And at what point, in your opinion, does the world dependence on the Strait of Hormuz become too dangerous to ignore? I will really appreciate you if you can drop your thoughts in the comment section, uh, and, and, and just share with me, uh, how do you see this, uh, Project Freedom Is it a really generous humanitarian mission, or is this nothing but an opening move into a much bigger game? I would greatly appreciate it. And we are right at the top of the hour, so, so I want to say thank you to, uh, those who support the channel, especially those who bought me tea. There is, uh, somebody by the name Riyad Jardin. Thank you so much for buying me tea. In support of my Asia trip. And please never ever apologize, because here is what I wrote to the person, and I quote— I'm assuming it's okay— "Forgive me, Dr. O, for only buying one cup of tea, uh, uh, or one coffee. Uh, we have weak currency in South Africa." And in quote, please don't ever, don't ever, ever apologize. I, I, I refuse to accept that. Your support means a lot to me, and I'm very, very grateful. Uh, I've always made sure of that. So, so to those who wants to support the, the my upcoming Asia trip, I would greatly appreciate it. We are so far right here, we crossed into 3,041. I didn't update it yet, but should you decide to support the upcoming Asia trip Once again, once again, uh, I'm not going for tourism. I am going to report to you about particular, uh, uh, events in a particular location. That's the reason why, uh, I, I need, uh, to reach the goal of $10,000 because of the flights involved and so forth. So should you decide to support that, I would be very, very grateful. For the channel, it is the link for if you want to support the channel. And, and thank you to those who bought me many cups of coffees in support of that. And if you want to get a copy of my, my books, uh, you can, you can go to this link. All of them at Buy Me a Coffee. I put the link there, uh, for the books, uh, and you can get a copy of my, uh, of, uh, my Saudi book, which I highly recommend if you want to learn something about really the politics of the Saudi, inside the Saudi family. Uh, if you want to learn also about, uh, the dynamics of Russia's geopolitics, really what's going on in that, uh, of course if you want to learn about Iran, which I disclosed a lot of stuff, uh, of course I had to have it cleared by the government. Uh, the US government, uh, told me, Dr. Oualaalou, you can't disclose this, disclose that, which I respect. It's, it's the law. Uh, so you, when you get the book, when you get a copy, you'll see some areas are redacted. That's because of the sensitivity of the information. I thank you all for being here. Truly appreciate you. Appreciate your civility in the chat box discussions. Uh, we are here to learn from each other. I'm, I'm, I'm just, uh, because if I can add anything to your knowledge, then I have failed you. And failure is not an option for me. I, I, I refuse to do that. I will be looking into the next few days for the development. As I mentioned, I will report to you in due time. As always, remember, geopolitics impacts your daily life in more ways than one. Till next time, bye-bye.