The Next War: Iran May Launch 2,000 Missiles at Once against Israel! Geopolitical Trends

Hello everybody and welcome to Geopolitical Trends, where truth matters. I'm your host, Dr. Oualaalou, excited to be with you as always. I have an interesting topic for you. This one, basically why I decided to do it, because I'm looking over the horizon as to what's coming. Uh, this has to do with the possibility now for, should another conflict, uh, erupt between Israel and Iran. Iran is in possession now to fire as many as 2,000 missiles all at once. And, uh, I had to verify the information, but also there are other events that's taking— reach this, this, uh, conclusion. As to the possibility of it. So this is what I'm going to be detailing with you in this live stream, providing you my own analysis about this development, given that I also wrote a book about Iran and I addressed this particular, uh, possibilities of tensions with Israel. So, but before I'll do this, let me say hi to our wonderful community, uh, and of course, uh, I forgot to— before I'll do anything, uh, uh, to the members of the community who are former military individuals, especially for those here in the US veterans. So I will say to you, Happy Veterans Day, because today is Veterans Day, usually November 11th, and it's a federal holiday here in the United States that is observed annually. So the purpose of it is to honor the military veterans of the US Armed Forces. So Happy Veterans Day for any member of our community who's served in the military. So, all right, let me see, uh, oh, Leanne, good to see you here. Zion, as always. Willie Harmon, uh, Zafar, good to see you from Islamabad. Wow, that's good to have you here. I know there are major tensions now between Afghanistan and Pakistan regarding the construction of a dam that Afghanistan wants to do, which will take away from the waters in Pakistan. That's another issue. So who else is here? Non D3C, good to see you. Francis Tango, as always. KC Wong from Malaysia, good to have you. Youssef, good to see you. Salam from, oh, Reims, Champagne, France. Good to have you here, Youssef. Happy to have you join us here. Uh, who else is here? Abdulafal, good to see you. Uh, Soccer, good to see you. And Kevin James, as always, an avid supporter of the channel. Good to see you, Kevin. All right guys, let's get into our topic. Oh, by the way, I— oh, I got a text here from my son Michael saying happy Veterans Day, thank you for your service, love you. Well, that's kind, Michael. Thank you very much, man, if you are watching this live stream. So It's nice that, uh, some people would appreciate, uh, something like that. So I'm, I'm very touched by Michael's text messages. So, all right, let me again, and once again to those who just, who just joined us here, uh, what I'm going to be talking about today is the possibility of how the next war between Iran and Israel is going to be very, very devastating for Israel. That doesn't mean that Iran will not be also devastated, but the idea is that Iran will be in a position to fire about 2,000 missiles all at once. So, and I'm gonna providing you, I will be providing you detail. Some housekeeping item, remember to join me once I get the confirmation from Dr. Yan Yan. I'm waiting to, I just emailed her, so I'm waiting to hear from her, and I look forward to this conversation with her next either this, the end of this week, or next week. We'll see. I'm also gonna be talking to you about AfD party in Germany and what happened to the death of their 11 members suddenly. So that's just worth your knowledge regarding, uh, what's going on. So I decided to do today headlines, and for this one particular one that I wanted to do, want you to know But the reason I wanted to do it is so you can connect this particular headline to what I'm gonna be talking about regarding Iran and Israel. So, so here is the first one. The first one is that, uh, Yediot, uh, a newspaper, uh, Yediot Aharonot, which is a newspaper in Israel. It is— has a good reputation. So I've been reading some of their articles translated into English. I don't speak Hebrew, of course. So here is where the concern is, is that America— this is according to this newspaper— plans to build a huge military base near Gaza. That is very disturbing, to say the least, as to why the United States will be building another military base. So the Israeli newspaper Yediot Aharonot uh, revealed today, this morning, that the United States is planning to establish a massive half a billion dollar military base near Gaza border. Why is this? The US is saying, oh, it's to support ceasefire. I don't think so. But this is going to go into some sort of, uh, uh, the plan for it's going to be moving forward. And this was quoted by an Israeli official saying that the base could accommodate thousands of soldiers, noting that the construction of this base reflects greater US involvement in Gaza and in general in Palestinian-Israeli conflict. I don't think so. I don't think so. This one has to do with the upcoming war with Iran and anything else regarding what the interim president of Syria, Zulani, Who was in Washington getting the marching orders? Because the US going to establish another military base inside Syria. This has nothing to do with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. So this is why I wanted to share this headline with you. So the second headline that I wanted to share with you, uh, it has to do with, uh— oh, I thought I had the picture. Oh, sorry, let me, let me upload it for you quickly here. Bear with me a second here because I already had it on my desktop. I just didn't upload it. So there we go. It's also worth, worth understanding what is this about. Here is what Iran is saying. Iran is saying that is ready for an agreement with America and rejects conflicting messages. So I am once again questioning what Iran's sort of— haven't they learned anything from the Americans that you can't trust the American government? So the Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister, Saeed Khatibzadeh, said that his country wants to reach— meaning Iran wants to reach a peaceful nuclear agreement with the United States to resolve the decade-long dispute. But without compromising its national security. Khatibzadeh stated— this is the deputy foreign minister— stated that during his participation in Abu Dhabi Strategic Forum on Tuesday, today, this morning, that Washington is sending conflicting messages to Tehran regarding the nuclear talks through other countries. Well, I will say, first of all, why would you even want to negotiate with Americans again? And second, why would you even care about this, what the US or any other Western entity, especially UK, France, and Germany, who cares about what they think about Iran's nuclear program? Move forward. Kick out the IAEA inspectors. Pull out of the— the, uh, what you call it, NPT, and be done with it. This is exactly what Pakistan did. This is exactly what North Korea did. You all remember, I always bring North Korea as an example. And look now, do we ever issue a threat against North Korea? We dare not to. And that is again why will even Iran consider this particular aspects of But again, they, they can decide for themselves. So, so let's move on into our analysis about what is going on with now the possibility of the upcoming war or conflict between Iran and Israel. And it is a foregone conclusion. So unless Israel will have to think— because the way I see it, that Israel has to think twice now about engaging with Iran. And I'm going to share with you what Iran has acquired since June, the 12-day conflict with, with Israel, what type of weapons it has acquired. And I have pictures for you and so forth. So it was reported that some Middle Eastern analysts and officials, usually those are either in academia or affiliated with think tanks, suffice it to say that the, the consensus regarding this assessment is that those officials warning that the new war between Israel and Iran is only a matter of time. And especially now when you consider the collapse of the nuclear negotiations, you know, and of course the only thing I don't agree with them on their assessment is that where also the absence of the international oversight of the Iranian nuclear program. Well, why will Iran even worry about that or cares about it? And why will this analyst put that as a major issue that could, uh, uh, on based on which the war is going to be evolved? Because Iran has that possibility of just shutting the door on the IAEA and move forward, which is exactly what they just did. However, I got a report that some IAEA inspectors were spotted inside Iran. And this is where you had to, to say to yourself, are we looking now at this report suggesting that there is now an escalating military preparation on both sides, on Iran and Israel? It's legitimate questions to ask. You know, and because it's a possibility. And when you consider that Iranians' missile factories are opening or operating 24 hours a day, that gives you an idea. So because that means that Iran is preparing now to launch up to 2,000 missiles all at once at Israel. And given that the system, the Iron Dome and the David's Sling and so forth, didn't end up holding up against the Iranian missiles— some of them were able to shut down the Ansarullah missiles but not the Iranian ones. So, and why all this concern for Israel? This is what I'm saying. Israel will have to think twice before engaging Iran again. Why? Because this massive launch from the Iranian side will overwhelm the Israeli defenses. So, because remember, remember last June, Iran launched a total of about 500 missiles during the last, the last conflict, 12 days, but they weren't consecutive, but in total was 500. The massive devastation that existed inside Israel was not reported, of course. So of course, Iran also suffered some devastations, but for Israel is even much more concerning its size. It's small, so small, and it's condensed. The majority of people live in certain cities like Tel Aviv and Ashdod and so forth. So they are very, very condensed. And this is why if you are to sit on the Israeli side, you're going to be saying to yourself, Oh, I feel the mission has not been completed, and there is no reason why we— in this case Israel, I'm just putting myself in their shoes, in their thinking— why we should not resume, uh, the conflict again. So however, we have to consider that Iran might be prepared now much better than it was in the previous time. The possibility is there. So of course, all this comes in conjunction with the end of the JCPOA agreement, because the JCPOA, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action signed between Iran and the P5+1, the 5 permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany, which was signed in 2015 for a period of 10 years and just expired this month. As a matter of fact, in October. I'm sorry, expired in October. So which means what? If expired, that means Iran has no legal obligations now to abide by that, uh, agreement because it fulfilled its, uh, it's, it honored its commitment to that agreement for that period for which the agreement was signed. So, and of course, we all know what Donald Trump did in 2018 by pulling out of the JCPOA, reinstating the sanctions. And this is why, again, why will Iran even consider negotiating with the Americans again? There is only one reason and one reason only. It's because if the regime inside Iran is more concerned about the public uprising because the public uprising will happen more so if it is under pressure from sanctions than it is from something else. It's always economics. Remember French Revolution, what happened? Economics. You know, the Roman Empire disintegrations, corruption and economics. You know, UK, which by the way, I was just talking to someone, just came back from London. Yesterday, and I say, how are things in London? He said, couldn't believe it. You know, in London, only 37% are the locals. The rest are outsiders. You wonder why. You know, I'm not against immigration. You know, we all are immigrants here in the US. You know, I'm talking about immigration that when you come and contribute to the society you decide to immigrate to. But the faces and the poverty that exists in, in, in England, in London. He was shocked to, to— and asked for that. And I'm going to be addressing the issues of immigration pertaining here to the US in some other time. But, but this is again why I'm saying, why will it— why will Iran will even consider negotiations with the Americans again? So the idea of this, uh, Uh, uh, uh, because Iran now is in a position where it can say, you know what, we have enough. And I did get confirmation on this. Please, if anybody knows different information, please share it with the community in the chat box. So to my knowledge is that Iran has enough uranium to build at least about 11 nuclear weapons as of today. Possibly it could have more. So the only problem with that is that the site of this stockpile of this uranium is uncertain. The US wasn't able to find out. You know what the US did with the bombing? It was just for a show. And Israel wasn't able to, to, to destroy anything. So some say, well, this, uh, stockpile is buried under, uh, the rubble after the U— uh, uh, rubble. Yeah, after the US Israeli strikes. Nah, nah, nah. Iranians were smart enough to know that something was in the works regarding an imminent attack, and they went ahead and removed the stockpile to a secret location. You know, it will be naive of us to think otherwise. And this is again where you have to think in terms of where this is going moving forward. And of course, why am I saying all this? You have to look at the other events that take place. This is how it works when you do an analysis about geopolitical events. You have to consider, and I've said this before to you guys, you have to always consider other aspects of the big picture. And one of the big picture here has to do with the statements of none other than the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency. The IAEA, the corrupted Rafael Grossi— I have a picture of him here— Rafael Grossi is as corrupted as it gets. You are familiar with his case in Japan where the IAEA turned out that they took bribe from the Japanese to keep close eyes on when the Japanese were dumping the nuclear waste into the Pacific. You all remember I did a video for you about that., and I disclosed this information and provided a reference for it. So when Rafael Grossi is stating that most of Iran uranium, uh, stockpile is still there, who gives a damn about what you think? Because it was after all the IAEA that was sort of indirectly providing the names of scientists because it has to work with scientists, Iranian scientists, and the names were given indirectly to the US and Israel. That's where those scientists were targeted, by the way. And the IAEA is estimating— are you gonna again trust what the IAEA saying? But, but saying— but we'll go with their argument. And here is their argument, is that Iran has about 400 kilograms of enriched uranium, 60% of which is close to the level of a military use. Once again, I find myself using history as my guide when I see it was the exact setup that happened prior to North Korea making a decision. I said, you get out, IAEA, you get out, no more, we move ahead. And they move ahead, build the bomb. To my knowledge, they has more than one, of course. You know, that's a given. And this is why we are not able to even threaten North Korea. We can't because we know they ain't gonna— they don't bluff. And I see Iran probably will be in the same path moving forward. But the bigger picture about what we're talking about today regarding the possibility of Iran launching these 2,000 missiles all at once, should there be a war again. All this has to do also with the idea of that, how some analysts right here in the US, in Washington, especially from some specific think tanks like the RAND Corporation, like Brookings Institute— here is what they stated. They stating that Iran is weak, is weaker today than it was. You know that of course they're going to have to provide that assessment. And they could make some dangerous— it could be dangerous because it will act and it might act desperately. I don't think so. Iran made it clear that they don't seek war, they don't want war, but if attacked, they're gonna have to respond forcefully. And this is, again, you have to always be careful when you read certain analysis coming out of think tanks affiliated with the government versus an independent, let's say, a person like in this channel, like what I'm doing here for you. I don't work for a, a think tank. I don't report to anybody. I report to you. So I have no reason for me to push any agenda whatsoever. I have no reason to articulate the arguments in a way that I can further certain thinking or thoughts. I have no reason for that. So what I end up doing is providing you the facts as I see them based in my— on my own assessment, my own understanding, and my own analysis. So because here is the thing that I need you to understand: what Israel wants is to ensure the containment of the Iranian nuclear program. You know, well, it is unlikely to succeed. And this is what could be the other reason for why Iran— Israel would say, we might have to strike again, except that this time around Iranians are much prepared than they were before. That is where the concern in Tel Aviv as we speak. So the idea is even within Iran itself, there are two camps. One that favors some sort of settlement and others that saying no, we are not going to settle on whatever. And this is why make sure you stay till the end of this live stream because I'm going to be providing you with about 2 or 3 scenarios that are most likely to happen moving forward. So, and this is again, you have to think in terms of the idea of the officials inside Iran that are saying that, you know what? Because here is what happened. Iranian officials are pushing, there are those who are pushing for confrontation. Why? Because they see no point in engaging with Trump, who was the one who withdrew from the 2015 nuclear agreement, JCPOA. And that in itself, just that act, angered Iranians. And of course, Iranians also were angered when Israel went ahead and bombed a part of the country in conjunction with the US. So why would you negotiate with them? So on the other hand, there is another camp that is saying, no, we can reach an agreement with the Americans regarding the nuclear program. Americans have no interest in reaching an agreement with you. Iran. You need to understand that Washington establishments will not allow it. Yeah, you hear the president, I'm willing to— heck, President Trump wants even to bribe Iran. You can't trust the American government. So, and this is where you have to think about the bigger picture of West Asia or the Middle East as to Sad to say, it's a bleak picture moving forward. I'm gonna do the analysis for you for a different video, but for now, suffice it to say that a possibility of a new confrontation between Iran and Israel, you know, this will be no negotiations, no international oversights, and no mutual trust, only an acceleration of missiles productions of course. But there is one side to all this, is that there is the other argument that this could push for, uh, a nuclear arms race in the region. Possibly, possibly not. Liking this video so far? Don't just be a watcher, go ahead and hit the like, share, and subscribe button. And don't forget to tap the bell so you will not miss any of my videos or live streams. This way you will be supporting a channel that stands for the truth and objective reporting. The choice is yours. Thanks for your support. All right, let's talk about— and I'm gonna get into the detail now of what led me to say what I'm saying regarding the, the possibility of Iran launching 2,000 missiles all at once. So So first of all, the next war between Iran and Israel is just a matter of time. Or let me ask you this question, guys, for you, in your opinion, based on what you know, based on what you have learned, uh, with me here through the channel and so forth, do you believe that the next war between Iran and Israel is just a matter of time? Yes or no, please, if you can answer in the chat box. I like you to be part of the conversation here, so I will greatly appreciate it. And your feedback, your opinion matters to me. That's, that's how I've always done it. To me, you have to listen to other perspectives. You have to listen. It doesn't matter, you listen to other ideas, and that's how we learn. Uh, uh, so sort of that's how we learn to exchange ideas and learn from each other. Okay, let me see here. Uh, uh, okay, John Dutchman, you say yes. ABC, you say yes. Sarah Carol, you say yes. Francis Tango, you say no idea. Okay, maybe the question— you didn't hear the question. Uh, Macian Dorsey, you say yes. Uh, who else is, uh, uh, you say yes. Uh, you say yes. Uh, Fighter, you say no. Okay, that, that's good to know. Is the idea just, again, I am seeing the trends, I am looking over the horizon, I am using my own assessments. And again, I could be wrong. I'm not suggesting that I'm always right. I mean, that will be a problem if I am always right. I'm just a human like you. I can make mistakes, but you know, I've been long enough to know what to look for, and I'm very careful about what I say. This is why you don't hear me in this channel, uh, or the other channels, well, just talking about sensational stuff, whatever. I, I don't do that kind of nonsense. So, but here is the thing, the answering this question is a complex geopolitical one, you know, that depends on other factors, and I'm not denying this. So because you have to remember, the two countries, Iran and Israel, fought in 2020, June 2025, directly. And of course, both sides are saying we're the victorious. When you look at the devastation that happened inside Israel, when you got the devastation that happened inside Iran. So however, the situation remain volatile. There is no, there's no, no, uh, there, there still like the frozen conflict, if I may use the, uh, the term. So there is no formal ceasefire that exists between Israel and Iran as of today. Of course, the US saying, well, we brokered the ceasefire, has largely held since, uh, uh, uh, after the 12-day war. But again, the US is part of the problem to begin with. So, but there is always the risk of the new tensions from missteps by any party. Of course, when you look at what the Europeans just did by triggering the, the snap, the snap sanctions on Iran, all of a sudden makes you just wonder. So, so, and this leads us to ask the question again, why further conflict is possible between Iran and Israel? It's because we have to start looking at this as the new normal. I heard the door, somebody. Yeah, uh, the normal in which either we take further military action, you know, because here is where I see the challenge. Uh, in Tel Aviv, they're going to be saying, if Iran moves forward with its nuclear program, we're going to have to retaliate. Iran is saying, if ever attacked, we will retaliate with whatever we have. So, and this is where the key uncertainties are. It remains unclear how quickly Iran will be— will ensure that it has rebuilt its conventional military deterrence. You know, how far, for example, China and Russia will go into helping Iran in that aspect and whether Israel might strike again first unexpectedly. And this is why, again, you have to think about this so-called ceasefire. Uh, this ceasefire lacks some sort of red lines, and there are no external guarantor to it. That is why it just hold in by a thin on a thin air, per se. And the broader context of all this is that a major risk is that these attacks by Israel on Iran will harden Iranians' resolve to really, really move forward, be convinced 100% to develop a nuclear weapon, potentially leading to nuclearized Middle East. Of course, there are those who say, okay, Dr. O, how about Iran already possessing nuclear weapons? I'm not ruling that out. I'm not ruling that out. All I'm saying is I am stating with you what I know so far, and also because of evidence. That's all. I will not rule out your suggestion for that. And this is again leads me to ask, you know, did Iran after the 12-day— did Iran acquire advanced systems in preparation for a next war with Israel? And the answer is yes. Iran has actively acquired some of the best systems, particularly after the June conflict. And I'm going to share with you what I have documented based on facts. There are two things. There are Russians and Chinese weapons transfer that took place. Iran and Russia, as you know, have established weapons technology partnership that exchanges, that exchanges finished military hardware and the technology to produce it, of course with the Chinese assistance. And this include, for example, the Russian improvements do drone design that filter back into Iran and involvements in various components. And this was reported— I'm going to send you the link, uh, from the Institute for Security Studies, and you can read the link— the article, I'm sorry, you can read the article later on yourself. So let's go with the air defense systems. Iran reported negotiated the purchase of the HQ-9 air defense system from China and the S-400 missile systems from Russia. So I'm going to show you pictures of the HQ, uh, systems from HQ-9 from the Chinese. Here is the example of it. They already acquired this one, okay? And the same time they acquired the S-400 missile systems from Russia. If you know anything about these two systems, these two systems are deadly accurate. And all this was to re-equip Iran's armed forces, uh, of course, after what happened with the Israelis. So, and this is why when you think about the two, the two types of systems Both of them. Let me show the picture once again. The HQ-9, okay, and the S-400 missile systems. Why Iran went with the specific ones is because HQ-9 can engage targets at a range of about 200 to 250 kilometers. At the same time, the S-400 missile system extends to about 400 kilometers. The same arguments can be made about the fighter aircraft, which became clear that Iran needed to do something. So Iran went ahead and purchased the MiG-29. I have a picture of it right here, the fighter from the Russians. And at the same time, even though they went ahead and, and, uh, purchased this one They went ahead and purchased the Su-35, which they are waiting the delivery of this particular aircraft. There is another country that went ahead and purchased the same aircraft, and this country is Algeria. This is why— this is just a side note for you to know, I was made aware of this particular aspect— is that the talks for Morocco now to purchase the F-35s from the Americans. It's because the Algerians purchased the Su-35 from the Russians. The question is whether the US will sell the F-35A or F-35B or even F-35C to Morocco. I doubt it. They will give Morocco the F-35A, which, uh, cost about $109 to $110 million, and the F-35B cost about $90 million, and F-35C cost about $85 million something. The problem that I foresee Morocco will have is the maintenance. F-35 is very costly. Algeria went ahead and purchased Su-35. So I just— food for thought, it just came to my mind. And this is where you have to think about the fighter jets, the missile, but there's also another aspects for Iran upgrading its, its arsenal has to do with missile components. Since September of this year, Iran— it is reported, and I'll provide you the link— that Iran received about 2,000 tons of sodium, uh, uh, per, uh, percolate, perchlorate, system. This is a fuel used, uh, for the missiles. And this, uh, this is a missile fuel, uh, uh, precursor. And that was received from China. And what is— why is this important? Is this is important because this amount, this 2,000 tons of this sodium perchlorate, it's enough to produce 500 ballistic missiles. All at once. So, and this leads me to think once again outside the box. When I, when I'm seeing this kind of purchases, is this means that Iran is shifting towards China more so than, than, than, than Russia? And the answer is yes. It's not that Iran is dumping Russia. No. It's because Russia is entangled with the Ukraine conflict. So it makes more sense for Iran to move with a country that is not involved in any other conflict, and China is. So even though in the case of Russia, some questions have come to the fore as to why the Russian president is dragging this war when he could have ended in no time. I don't have an answer to that. So, and this is again, my argument is that Iran has increasingly pivoted from Russia towards China, uh, for its primary weapon suppliers, partly because China has remained relatively insulated from the Ukraine and from the Middle East conflict.. In contrast, Russia's ability to deliver, uh, uh, is limited by its Ukraine involvements. That's the reason why I'm saying what I'm saying. So, and the idea of this missile, Iranians' missile capabilities, was also claimed by the Iran foreign minister Abbas Arakchi. I think I have a picture of him. Yes. Abbas Arakchi, who stated that Iran's missile power has become— and I put this in quote— far greater than during the 12-day war, end of quote, because Iran went ahead and enhanced its arsenal and critical deterrence. Usually in a conflict, you learn your shortcomings, you turn them into successes, because now you see where your vulnerabilities are the same for us. Even the US, you think this mighty military power, whatever. When we had the aircraft carrier in the Red Sea and when we started to see what the Ansarullah were able to do, it became clear to us that this is something we need to work on. We have nothing to, to defend against some kind of special type of hypersonic missiles Not that the Houthis had them available, but the Kuruvs requested and the Kuruvs received some and launched them at the aircraft carrier. And like I always say, in international relations, optics matters. The fact that you have targeted an aircraft carrier, it's enough. So, and this is where you see now for Iran, this to me, this patterns of acquisition of this type of weaponry from Iran and from— I'm sorry, from China and Russia, is, is, is systematically rebuilding Iran's and modernizing its military capabilities through these partnerships with Russia, China, and I will not rule out North Korea for the technology of missiles. So, and of course, there are multiple dimension to Understanding, for example, what are the security and geopolitical ramifications of the next war between the two arch enemies? Because it's reality, we cannot ignore it. So there are different dimensions to this. You start with the regional balance of power. Because here is the hard fact, why Israel is doing all this? Because they are losing their influence in the region. The 12-day war that took place in June confirmed a shift in the regional balance of power away. But away from whom and towards whom remain to be debated, because some analysts are saying, oh, this regional balance of power demonstrated the shift that took power away from Iran into Israel. Others are saying the reverse. I'm saying it in the reverse. I'm saying it that it took power away from Israel, because when you start having your citizens inside Israel that were supposed to be protected are being bombarded by missiles and targeted, that's enough to say that this power of— because, uh, at least during my years in Washington, and I spend time on the ground in the Middle East in different countries, it was at that time everybody knew that Israel is the invincible force in the region. That's our eyes and ears in the region. Nobody will ever challenge it. Not anymore after the 12-day. That's why I disagree with those analysts who are saying the reverse, that the shift is taking away power from Iran. Towards Israel. It's the other way around. So, and however, the, the situation remain volatile, by the way, no matter how we see it. Of course, I am not going to mention the Gulf and Arab states because they are, they are so weak anyway. They are so weak. And the arguments that have been made by Western think tanks is that, oh, they have been so weak and weakening by Iran. Did you see where this is headed? It's by sort of creating an enemy, real or perceived, so the pathetic Arab leaders will go ahead and purchase more weapons from the Americans in order to defend their countries. And even for Qatar, for example, with all its weapons, Israel was able to target inside Doha. So where is all this American shield and all protective and so forth, the security umbrella and so forth? What happened to all that? It gives you an idea. Because the concern that Israel have always had is that Iran's flexing its military capabilities, but it's gonna realize that it will not be able to apply meaning Israel will not be able to apply its military force on Iran anymore. So the nuclear proliferation risk, that's another conversation because there are many, many things you have to consider. And because, uh, you, you, you have to think about it this way: will we be having this discussion if ever Iran came forward and said we are a nuclear power? Attack us at your own risk. Are we going to be having this conversation today? I don't think so. So of course there are those, uh, uh, and I'm not ruling out certain scenarios. For example, hypothetically, if the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is taken out in this renewed conflict, hypothetically, So what's gonna happen? It's gonna be a power vacuum that could lead to regional spillover. You're gonna have some rogue military actions, and you're gonna have some sort of a major political transformation and systemic transformation inside Iran's political order. Remember, there are some groups, and I remember I run to someone in France who was a member of the Mujahideen-e-Khalaf. And I did ask him a question. I knew the answer. I just wanted to see how truthful he was. And I said, let me ask you a question. Are you receiving any funding from the US? And he said, yes, we are. I say, appreciate you for being honest. And he was like surprised at that. So this is my point. You're going to have some sort of a transformation in Iran political order. And this will present some sort of a highly volatile and unpredictable environment with significant implications for the regional security. And not only that, you're gonna have to talk also about the global energy market, and you're gonna have to talk about or consider the geopolitical balance of power in the Middle East. All those are— think of it like a chain that is connected. So, and this is why regarding this nuclear, uh, issue with Iran, Iranian officials have not given any indication, uh, whether they are ready to accept any demands to end uranium enrichment. And why should they? Because we're the one who pulled out of the JCPOA. And the idea of the global energy market and the Strait of Hormuz, because you cannot ignore this, it's, it's, it's a major factor, the Strait of Hormuz, which is critical because there are few practical alternative for routing oil exports from the Arabian Gulf. And how do you think the survival of those Arab monarchies in the Gulf? It's depend on oil. Take oil out, they will go down. So, and we all saw what happened with the Red Sea when the Houthis put a blockade. So, because you have about, you think about it. Just for Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates have invested so much to bypass this infrastructure of the Strait of Hormuz. So yeah, it just, it costing so much. This is where you have to think about in terms of what's going to be happening moving forward into all this because One of the ideas that at least happened, as one who not only wrote a book about Iran, but I've been following these developments as to what's going on with the JCPOA, and I even disclosed in the book the possibility that one of the states might end up pulling out. And it's exactly, I didn't expect the US would do it, and we did. Shame on our government for not upholding its commitment to international agreement, because it was an international agreement. And that's diplomatic breakdown. The suspension of the US-Iran nuclear negotiations represented significant long-term consequences to it. So, because it was the most, in my opinion, at least some promising diplomatic pathways to addressing Iran's nuclear program. But it's too late for that. And without diplomatic alternative, you don't know what's going to be happening. So then you add the international complexity to all this. So because the idea is that Iran demonstrated its willingness to engage in a direct confrontation, which we never heard before. So, so this is— of course nobody wants to see war. No. And the question of— and that's how I'm going to conclude this with the scenarios I talked to you about at the beginning. I will share that with you. So the big question is, how might a military conflict now, the second one between Iran and Israel, might end? So there are several potential pathways, and I'm gonna share with you some. To me, the most important one is, I think, the scenario 4, but again, we'll see. And I'm gonna share all the scenarios with you, and please just share in the chat box which scenario you think is the most sort of pragmatic and, and reasonable. So the first scenario is negotiated a settlement with concessions. What does it mean? It means that the diplomatic resolution remains possible where Iran accepts international constraints on its nuclear program. However, the political chaos for Tehran will be staggering. So in this case, Trump would, will, will give up something. And Iran will appear to be caving under pressure. So the key challenge is that Iran's diplomatic window may have already closed. And this is— we're just thinking outside the box here scenario, because those who argue for this particular one are saying, oh, because Iran has lost its ability to rush for for a bomb and can no longer control its airspace and security independently. And this was one of the views from the Institute for Strategic Studies, and I usually read their stuff when I find it very objective. I'll let you decide on that. Scenario number 2: prolonged low-intensity conflict. The war doesn't necessarily end formally. It's like North Korean Korea. All the waves of massive Israeli strikes might stop at some point, like what we are seeing now with the Houthis. You don't hear anymore Israelis attacking Houthis in Yemen. So a low-level conflict could continue for months. Israel might launch occasional missiles here and there, airstrikes, assassinations, and sabotage in Iran itself, while at the same time Iran will fire periodic periodically missiles at Israel from time to time and just go from there. Scenario number 3, escalation into a regional war. Now this is a darker, darker scenario. Why is this? It's because this darker scenario is that Israel-Iran war expands into regional conflict. Iran could attack US facilities in the region, which will make it far more likely that the United States will formally enter the war. Of course, it will be good news for Israel. So that— or, or the US could just be complicit in some operations. Scenario number 4: regime transformation or collapse, or or even change. This possible scenario is to internal transformation within Iran. So either through an intra-elite coup or a sharp managed transition. Only you see this if one thing happen, in my opinion, if you see a fracture within the IRGC, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. So, or some sort of realignment. This is what the US hoping in Venezuela, that the military will turn on Maduro. You could also see the political elites inside Iran could produce new leadership, exactly what happened when the Shah came to power because we the one who put him in after, uh, uh, the coup against Dr. Mohammad Mossadegh with the, the, the support of the CIA. And the MI6. So, so, and in this case, if that happen, you're gonna see transformative deal with the US and indirectly with Israel, because whoever comes to power is gonna have to cooperate with these two. It's the exact scenario we are seeing right now unfolding before our own eyes in Syria. This is why Giuliani was in, you know, in, in the White House. So on scenario number 4, this is a stalemate with asymmetric resistance. Iran could survive military— militarily degraded but engage in a persistent asymmetric entrenchment, which means operations, sabotage, subversive operations or resistance, whatever term you want to use. So, and this is going to require a major challenge for the US and its regional partner. So the most likely reality, the way I see it, is that this protracted low-intensity conflict is more likely than a formal ceasefire or a decisive resolution. Iran is unlikely to surrender I, I disclosed this in my book in one of these chapters, I think the last chapter, when I did the analysis. And I said, no matter what happened, because we have to understand the history of the Persians, Persia, Iran, they will never surrender. That's why Iran is unlikely to surrender under fire. That doesn't mean they might not seek to stay alive and fight for another day. So this is in case it is facing continued pounding. But again, I don't see that happening either. So the fundamental challenge is that diplomatic off-ramp now has largely vanished when it comes down to the Iran nuclear program. So because we haven't hold our end of the bargain when we signed the JCPOA for 10 years, because that's exactly the detail. Read my book, and I think I detailed the idea about JCPOA and its parts, its clauses, and so forth, and reach your own conclusion for that. But when we broke our commitment to that, then what incentives Iran has to hold its own end of the bargain? None. Whatsoever. So, and the idea of Israel is gonna go on a broader campaign, uh, not anymore. I think Israelis now will have to think twice if they ever attack Iran again, because this time around, uh, Iran is far more prepared based again on the research that I conducted to deal with the eventualities of any surprise attack from Israel or even the US for that matter. So because when you think about in Israel, uh, uh, the, the massive devastation economically speaking that Iran caused, uh, you don't hear much about it. It's not being disclosed. So it's not being disclosed. So make sure to leave me a comment in the chat, in the chat, in the in the comment sections of the video. I'd like to read your feedback, and I hope you enjoyed listening to this analysis. I take this opportunity to say thank you for the support of the channel. If you decide to support the channel, I'm gonna put the link, uh, for you in the chat box. I would greatly appreciate your support should you decide to do that, and I hope you enjoyed it. So Uh, I will be doing, as I said, I will be working on the other topic for, uh, AFD, and I wait for a confirmation from, uh, Dr. Yanlian. So, oh, AFU, much appreciate your kind support. AFU, you have been supporting the channel from way back, you know, and I can go back and prove it to you guys if you ever want me to do that. I keep track of all this. You know, I, I can't thank you enough for your kind support and generosity for your Super Stickers. It means a lot to me, than more you can imagine. So greatly appreciate it. Thank you so much. And to all of you, I hope you enjoyed it, and I look forward to seeing you next time. As always, remember, geopolitics impacts your daily life in more ways than one. Till next time, bye-bye.