The Philippines' Political Chaos: Civil War on the Horizon? Conversation W/Anna Malindog-Uy

All right, hello everybody and welcome to Geopolitical Trends, where truth matters. Excited to be with you on this December 5th. Yeah, it's too early, right, at 0800 hours, but it's also the only time my guest in Beijing has this time available, so we're grateful to have her here. So we're gonna do part 2 of my conversation with, uh, with, with Anna Malinda. You all watch the video, the previous video we did, part 1, and now we're gonna do part 2, addressing some really, really key issues that's going on domestically inside Philippines. And there is no one better than Anna to answer this, so I'm gonna bring her into the studio right away. And we're gonna— hi Anna, good evening to you.

Good, good evening from here where I am right now. Actually, I'm in Beijing at the moment, and good morning on your side. I think it's Early morning, it's around 8 AM in, in there.

That is correct. So while we are so excited, I'm so excited to have you here, the community is excited to have you here, and, uh, we're gonna get into— let me just introduce who do not know who Anna is. I put, by the way, a full detail, a full bio in the description, but I'm gonna just share a few things with you here, guys. Anna Marin Dog is a PhD candidate at the Institute of South-South Cooperation and Development at Peking University in Beijing, China. So she's, she's working on completing her dissertation. She's in a writing process right now of completing that, and soon she will hold the official title of Dr. Anna Malinda. She's also a columnist, a writer for the Manila Times, and she is also the Deputy Secretary General for the Association for Philippines-China Understanding. Very, very interesting background. Just guys, go to the, uh, uh, description and you'll see the full, uh, bio there. So, so let's get into this, Anna, because we don't want to waste a lot of time because I got a lot of questions for you that the audience wanted to have an answer to. So, so the first thing I would like to ask you is what this eruption, the domestic political chaos in Philippines that just happened What was this all about? Was Sara Duterte threatened first before she responded? What's going on?

Um, it's a very, very interesting question, David. Um, actually, um, if you really look at what is going on in the country, it's— there's a political tension. And basically the main actors at the moment is, of course, the Marcos side, which is being represented, of course, by the president of the Philippines, Marcos, um, BBM, or Bongbong Marcos Jr., or Ferdinand Marcos Jr. And on the other hand, you have the vice president, which is Sara Duterte. Um, if you really look at the situation, um, these two run in the same ticket in May 2022 national election. So they have this so-called unity. So they were in one ticket, and because of this, they have combined forces of the supporters of Duterte and of course the supporters of the Marcoses. So Both of them won landslide victory in the last May 2022 election. During the first 1.5 years, I think that kind of uni-team was there, but I think there was cracks already after around a year, precisely because you have also a figure in our current politics that, you know, the Speaker of the House, Martin Romualdez, is the cousin, you know, the cousin of the president. So as you can see, if you really look at the country's domestic politics in terms of who is the front-runner in terms of presidential race, even in the 2022 election, it's really the Duterte, no, it's Sara Duterte. However, Sara decided not to run for presidency, so it was BBM, and she ran for the vice presidency. So they both won. However, this time around, it seems that these two are not anymore friends, and the so-called unity is not anymore there. So now there is this political tension that is now creating some kind of commotion in the Philippines because, um, the supporters, of course, and also the supporters of Sara Duterte is trying to protect her and also to clamor that all of this political harassment being thrown at her should stop. And there are a lot of political harassment being thrown at the current vice president. Um, one of that would be, um, inquiry, the congressional inquiry as to the how she used the confidential fund that was given to her actually by the Office of the President. And now there's a lot of accusations that you know, there's such a thing as corruption, or to a certain extent, to that is being thrown at the vice president and many others. And also, um, I think the father of Sara, the former president, there was also this threat of what you call ICC, the ICC thing, that anytime soon the ICC will issue a warrant of arrest and then he will be, you know, trial in The Hague. So it's, it's really a confluence of factors. But so now there's tension because before, Sara was very— I mean, the vice president was very quiet, but now the vice president becomes vocal, and I think she's in a fighting mode. And of course, the current administration as well will be on BBM's side, will, will fight it off with her. So that tension is very much felt at the moment, not only in terms of exchange of words, but even in terms of action. Because as you can see, there's already an impeachment case being filed against the president— against the vice president. There are two impeachment, um, cases being filed against her in Congress. And as I can see, they control the Congress. The current BBM and his cousin controls the Congress. Almost all of the congressmen, they, they have it on their side. That impeachment, I think if only if you talk about numbers, will pass. However, majority of the Filipino people don't want that, and they don't want the vice president to be impeached. So how you gonna manifest that? It's being manifested by going to the streets and having protest rally. So it's not anymore just the supporters of the VP that is doing the protest rally, as I have, as I, as I have known this morning that the biggest religious group in my country, they call themselves Iglesia ni Cristo, would also be holding the huge protest rally in Manila against the impeachment. So you can see this kind of, you know, political turmoil going on in the country. But the question really, David, is why is it that the vice president is being ostracized politically speaking, in many ways by the current administration. I mean, the whole administration is something that— the whole force of the current administration is against her, is pushing her to the wall. There's only one thing that I can see: they, they want to eliminate the Vice President Sara Duterte in the, in the political landscape of the Philippines, especially in preparation to the the 8th election, national election, because they know that if she ran for the presidency, she will win.

She will win.

She will win. That's really, um, the case. So for her not to be able to run, and at the same time for her not to win, they have to just— they have to destroy her politically speaking, and of course paint her image as a person and as a— and as a So that's, that's going on. On the other hand, it has also something to do with— I think it's also, um, some kind of an attack. Um, the, the, the, the, the, the political, um, tension in the Philippines is not just about Sara Duterte as against to Marcos Jr. or the, the faction of Marcos Jr. and action of Sara. It has also something to do with the current situation of the country. Really, there are also people, there are also Filipinos like myself who are not anymore happy of what's going on in the country. There is mass corruption going on. It's really abuse. And the other one, I think, is, um, there is the, the, the, the peace and order is not as good. There's a rising crime in the country. Even drug problem is also rising. And also the economy is not good as well. And also the foreign policy, if you really look at it, the foreign policy of my country is not independent and heavily influenced by the United States. That's why you have an issue in the South China Sea at the moment, because the approach in the South China Sea is more the strategy of the United States rather than Filipinos, you know, the way we deal with conflict. So if you put all of this together, and including the political rivalry and tension between the Dutertes and the Marcoses/Romualdes, put them together, the country really is like a hot potato, you know, or it's like a ticking bomb. Anytime it explodes, you know. So that is really the situation of the country right now. If you ask me, how would I assess my country? To be very frank with you, I see my country as a bleeding country. It bleeds because of so many domestic problems. The prices of rice is too high, prices of oil, electricity, transportation is really too high that Ordinary Filipinos cannot afford it anymore. Even middle class is, is having this difficulty. There's a massive corruption, as I have said earlier. And on the other hand, you have a very problematic foreign policy that put us in a very compromising situation vis-à-vis China. And now Russia is reacting precisely because of the Typhoon missile system deployed in the northern part of the Philippines, which makes Russia and China very uncomfortable. The ASEAN countries are very uncomfortable about this, and And it adds to the kind of bleak situation that we have in the Philippines. So put— putting them together, economic domestic problems, politics, plus the very unbalanced and very heavily influenced foreign policy, especially the approach to the South China Sea dispute as against China, is the country really is not in a good position, and the country really I mean, in terms of, of, of projection, in terms of how you view it, it's not in a— it's not really in a good position. It's very bleak, if you will ask me. So that's why, that's why there are a lot of Filipinos really who are getting tired of this. They want a change, that they want a change really for a good— for good. And also they want— many of them, or some of them, would I say, or many Filipinos I would say that they're covering for the current president to resign, but of course the president will not. Of course, there were protest rallies that— and you can hear them shouting that they would— they're shouting Duterte, Duterte, but on the other hand, they're also shouting BBM, resign. So this is really the situation of Philippines at the moment. So not so happy. Not so bright. But as a person, I don't see that it's hopeless though.

Well, very interesting. We're gonna get back to the South China Sea because there is something that I need to address— not the address rather, but just share with the community and of course get your perspective onto this. Now, if we are to go back to this notion what you mentioned about the Filipino people, sort of, uh, uh, uh, not the Filipino people rather the current government— when I say current government, I'm referring to the Marcos camp, uh, so the fear, if I am to read this correctly based on what you stated, is that they are so concerned about the possibility of her winning the election in the upcoming elections. Now, could it be— and this is a question for you, Anna— could it be that there are some foreign elements pushing for this domestic chaos inside Philippines?

I would agree. I would presume yes, there's like some kind of foreign influence, or in— I would not say direct intervention, but foreign influence pushing for this, some kind of political domestic chaos going on. Precisely because, I'll be very frank and honest, the United States don't want to see another Duterte in power. Why? Because they cannot control the Philippines if a Duterte is in power. Really, because they— I mean, the way I see that, like, it's— it would be the same as the former president. The former president's stand during his time is we will be friend to the United States, we will be a friend of China, Russia, and everyone, but no one will dictate us in how we're gonna, you know, move forward and how we're gonna approach our foreign policy, especially in that South China Sea issue. And he doesn't like to have military troops on the ground. He doesn't like— he doesn't like— even though he doesn't like the Philippines to have hosting military bases of the United States, this is really clear. And even he, he even during his time, he actually asked for the review of the MDT. He, he, he said that the, the MDT, the Mutual Defense Treaty, needs to be reviewed and needs to be checked if it's beneficial to the Philippines. And even he attempted Yeah, to, to, to, how do you call that, to revoke the, the Visiting Forces Agreement. And he sent a letter to the United States that we don't want the Visiting Forces Agreement anymore. So if you really look at the, the Duterte per se, in terms of their brand of leadership, you can see that they want independent Philippines and they want an independent foreign policy. Now, if you are on the shoes of the United States, you will not You, you don't like this because you will not hold on the Philippines anymore. You will not have that strong influence because if in any case, let us say hypothetically, I really don't think so. I think he will— I think the way I see it, he will, he will prioritize the national interest the way I see it. Sarah, the vice president right now, or Sarah, will prioritize the national interest of the country and would not in any way compromise the sovereignty, independence, and autonomy of the Philippines. Unlike what is going on right now under a Marcos Jr. presidency, our sovereignty, our independence, and our autonomy is very much compromised. There's a heavy influence and there's a heavy presence of of Americans in my country, not only in terms of influence, in terms of policy, even in boots on the ground. You can see a lot of that going around the Philippines. That is really the fact of the matter, David, and I'm not— I'm just telling the truth. I'm not making this up, and many Filipinos could attest to that.

Yeah, well, I do know that the Marcos family— and again, I have nothing against Marcos. I am not a— because I am, I'm an outsider, so But I look in from outside in. I do know about the influence the US has inside the Philippines, especially with the Marcos family, when it comes to, for example, the massive amount of gold and so forth. And I have trusted sources that they know the history of the gold, how it was moved around specifically during that specific era. So without going into this detail, I am also was lucky to be aware of a private conversation of the former President Duterte himself when he was trying— when the US, Washington, was trying to push him behind the scenes into conflict with China. And his word was, and I put it in quote here, he said, "Are you crazy? You want me to fight the Chinese?" End of quote. That was— so to me it was like, you know, Uh, yes, some of his policies were looked at differently in the US, especially dealing with drugs. But on the other hand, if that's what the Filipino people wants to clean their streets, Duterte was able to do so. Yes, that's, that's to me. I'm not defending the guy, I am not, but I am speaking for with facts here. During his reign, the drug issues in Philippines, and I am very aware of this Same like what we have here in the US, except we don't deal with it here. Uh, Philippines, during his reign, the drug, uh, crimes went down. Now I hear other stories. Marcos doesn't care about that, so the drug issues in Philippines, it's going up now.

Yes.

And this— yeah, and this is why I'm saying, could it be that behind, behind the scenes there are foreign elements pushing for this because they will benefit from the division that exists within Philippines. And the end of the Filipino— yeah, they end up— the Filipino people end up paying the price, like you mentioned earlier. So, so let's, uh, let me just follow up on this and I'll move on to something else. You know, if these tensions, domestic tensions persist, how that in your opinion is going to impact the economy of the Philippines? As we speak.

Oh well, if the tension would continue, and let us say, no, if the people really get so tired and get angry with what's going on in the Philippines, especially now that you have the impeachment in the— there's a case of impeachment filed against the vice president there too. And then, you know, a lot of problems in the country, as I've said earlier. I think if people gets angry, and many, many people— I'm not kidding, and I'm not kidding, David— so many Filipinos are already tired. And angry. And, and if there's like a people power, let us say, because that's, that's, that's really part of our history, that, you know, when we want to change something drastically and abruptly, that one, one, one thing to that is what you call people power. And I've seen already, I've seen, um, protest rally in EDSA Shrine for what, 5 days? And it was covered in social media. So, and even some media outlets covered it in terms of, you know, of how it is and how did— I mean, what was the issues being raised in this protest rally. Well, the problem with this when you talk about economy is, of course, there's a political tension. So, I mean, investors in my country will be discouraged to invest because the politics is not stable. If politics is not stable, it means the economy is affected in many ways. So one of that I think that I can see is, you know, withdrawal of investor— withdrawal of investment in my country and discouraged investors to get into my country to invest, the serious ones to invest in the country, because if there are commotions, then business is affected. The business is affected in many ways. So That's, I think, one thing. So if that happens, if you don't have much FDI or foreign direct investment, so you don't generate new economic activities, you don't generate new capital, then your economy is crippled in many ways. And take note, David, we already have problems with China politically and diplomatically speaking. And even if you talk about Chinese investment, which is biggest in my country, and China is our largest trading partner, Right now it's already affected. There's not much Chinese investment, big ones, coming into the country. Infrastructure, in terms of infrastructure, digital infrastructure, and many others. Even our export to China, we're not anymore number one, I think, in terms of our banana export, in terms of our durian export, and even in terms of mango export, because now China is diversifying and getting all of this export of our sources from other countries already. So it, it really affects our country economically. And also, who will invest in a country, really, David, that is full of domestic problems? And there's a political instability to a certain extent. And also, you have a foreign policy that is very leaning to the United States, that anytime soon the country will be engaged in a military conflict with China, really. Because of that South China Sea issue. Every now and then there is a— there is some kind of, of collision. Today, I think today or yesterday, there was another collision between the Chinese vessels and our vessels in some parts of the South China Sea. And of course, China did its own, um, actions trying to protect its interests. So there was a water cannoning against our vessel. So it happens today. So you see, and I, I just really hope that it will not escalate into something bigger or, or, or a military confrontation between the two countries, because the Americans are also there in that area. So if you really look at all of this and put it together, no serious foreign direct investment, no serious investor would invest in my country at this time because that would be risky for them. Really?

Yeah, well, usually if there is instability and lack of security, that's gonna be a very, very concern. This leads me to ask a question, and I'm gonna ask it straightforward, Anna, because I, I trust also your, your, your opinion on this matter. Will it be fair to say— will I be wrong to say— is Philippines headed towards a civil war? Because if I look at the history of Philippines prior, when tensions erupt domestically, there is always some outcome like this. Are we seeing a repeat of history here?

Okay, that's a very good question. No, but before I answer that question, David, I just want also for you to understand and our audience to understand that, you know, in the Philippines also, when you talk about attracting foreign direct investors, um, or any investor for the matter, even domestic investors, it's also difficult. It's discouraging. Why? Because in ASEAN, we have the highest rate when you talk about electricity. We have the highest rate when you talk about water and transportation, even telecommunication. These are basic in a business. These are basic when you're trying to implement industries. You know, these are overhead costs. The overhead cost is really high if you're a businessman. And on the other hand, also when you talk about food, it's too expensive in the Philippines. Rice is very expensive in my country. Everything is imported. We don't produce our own food for food security. And that's even— and another issue also, David, is corruption. Laut corruption in my country everywhere you go under this administration. So if you're— if you are a businessman and you want to invest in my country and you're a serious business with a big industry, do you really want to go to my country given all of these things? No, if you put it in a business context. So that is also another reason. These are all— these are reasons as well Why, um, the plus the political tension going on, yeah, in addition to all of the problems, will discourage any, um, investors to come into my country, or even investors already in my country will go out of my country because of all of these things. That is really the case of the matter. So just to add earlier, another, on the other hand, with your question if there would be a civil war in my country I don't think so. That— I am not sure, no. But from my perspective, I don't know other political analysts how they're gonna address your question. But for my— for me, as far as I'm concerned, I don't think so. I, I really— I, I really hope not too, you know, because, um, it's really not good for my country. I mean, as much as possible, we can express our disagreement with the current government. Probably Filipinos can do that, but I really hope that it will be done in a peaceful manner, that, you know, that it will not be bloody or anything for that matter. I, I really hope so because I don't agree with violence. As far as I'm concerned, I'm also an activist, but I, as much as possible, I want it to be non-violent activism and peaceful activism. And because I, I don't like to have casualties in terms of lives, as much as possible, if I, if I'm being asked. And I really hope we will not come to a point that we will have that civil war. Probably a protest rally is okay, but going beyond it, that it's already bloody, I don't see it personally as good, really. And but to be very frank as well, I really don't know what will happen given all of these things that is going on in my country. I really don't know. I really, I cannot tell. But what I'm saying is just my hope and what I wish, that, you know, even if we have this protest And if we express our dissent against the current administration of Marcos Jr., we will not come to a point that Filipino to Filipino will, will fight in a bloody way. No, I hope not, really, because it's not good. It's not really good.

Yeah, I hope it never gets to that. But at the same time, I don't shy away from sort of highlighting what the possible— I always like, as we say, look over the horizon. To see what was hit. Because if I am to put myself in the shoes of, uh, in the shoes of an average Filipino individual and start to see, well, my economic situation is getting worse with the corruption that is now rampant in the country and the leadership that is failing to provide the basics and necessities, you only left with another option, and that option is You're gonna voice your concern, and once you voice your concern, you're gonna— you're gonna descend to the streets, and we all know what comes after. That was the reason why I've been thinking about, are we headed to a civil war in, in Philippines? And I, like you said, Anna, I hope it never gets to that because Filipino people deserve better. But on the other hand, how will they— will they call for the resignation of Marcos Jr.?

I think that possibility for that, I think, I mean, I think that kind of call is already happening. There are many Filipinos already calling for the resignation of the current president of the Philippines. Um, in the— yes, there are already calls for that. And, and, and the reasons for that is, of course, um, they're saying that, you know, his government is, well, allegedly, uh And so, yeah, yeah, I'm here. Um, so there's really a call already. However, um, that call is not necessarily shared by everyone. There's a big chunk of the population calling for BBM resignation, but on the other hand, you don't discount the fact that there are also supporters there are also a lot of Marcos supporters. So the country really at the moment is divided. But if you ask me if BBM will resign, I don't think so. Really, I don't think so. But if you ask me if, um, there are bases for why some Filipinos, or more, many Filipinos are calling for his resignation, to be very frank, well, there are bases to it. It's an— and they're, they're saying that, you know, the, the leadership of BBM is not competent as it is expected. And on the other hand, in terms of addressing basic issues, and especially issues of corruption, issues of, you know, even climate change, you know, how you become resilient as a country. Because right now there's a lot of natural disaster happening in my country, and it seems that the president doesn't know what to do with it, you know, how to respond to it. So these are basic problems that we expected the president to be able to to address efficiently and effectively, but it seems he's failing in this sense. So, you know, there are reasons why some Filipino schools are calling for his resignation, but this is a very hard dynamics because you have two factions and they're, you know, yeah, two, two sets of supporters. And I, I have heard that in, in this coming, this coming Saturday, December 7th, the, the Marcos supporters will be staging a rally as well in one part of the Philippines, and they will be crying. Their battle cry is they love BBM and they want the vice president to be impeached. However, there is also an upcoming rally of Iglesia ni Cristo calling for— calling the Congress not to proceed with impeachment. So you see, it's really hard dynamics.

Yeah, well, usually a good leader will listen to the voices of his or her people. So if the will of the people wants him to resign, then to me that's what a good leader does. Well, a good leader will never get to that point to begin with. A good leader will not get involved in corruption and so forth. This is almost like what's going on right now in South Korea. There is now a call for resignation of the South Korean president, which to me was like, if that's what the people wants, then, you know, the parliament is moving forward with that. So maybe Philippines might end up in the same direction or pursuing the same path as far as the majority of people— give it to the people, let people decide who they want their president to be. So yeah, they voted for him back then, turns out to be He wasn't as of a good leader, uh, in my opinion. And again, I am an outsider. I'm looking from outside in. I don't see any improvements for the Philippines since he took over.

No, no, no.

I could be wrong. I could be wrong, but I, I keep up with what's going on in, in, in the Philippines.

So, but I could confirm that as a Filipino. Yeah, I mean, really I, I really don't see any concrete achievement of the current administration, really. Um, I don't even know what happens to our infrastructure development. We need infrastructure development in the country, but there's no big ticket program. All of this infrastructure is going on is from the previous administration. Our economy is, you know, I mean, we're even selling our gold reserve, for God's sake. Did you hear— did you know that, that we sold? Yes, some parts of our gold reserve. Why would you do that?

So where is the money, Anna? Where the money is spent on?

That is even the case, that because there was no transparency in this regard. There was none. There's no explanation whatsoever. If why, what's the reason why, and where did— what the money intends for, where would it go? So nothing, no nada. That's even the case. I mean, when it comes to leadership, if you really love your country— I mean, for me, the way I see it, if, if BBM really has a care for his country, the Philippines, if you think that you're not capable in proceeding because probably you have your own issues, or probably you really don't, you really don't know how to address all the problems of the country, yeah, I think it's— you, you have that kind of, you know self-initiative to relinquish power when you think you're not anymore fit of leading a country. But not everyone has that kind of wisdom, I think. And I'm not sure about Marcos Jr. if he will come to a point and he will come to realize and probably have that self-introspection that, you know, if I ask the question, am I doing good for my country? I am an effective leader or not, something to that effect. But I am not sure about it. It's his own call, it's his own. He has to deal with, with it. But for me, I don't see— I really don't see the— in the near future, even, I don't see it that he will resign. I don't see it.

Okay, well, on that, just to follow up on this, Anna, if you are a queen for a day and you've been given the rein to advise the government, doesn't matter who, what would you advise them with? How would you advise the government given the current conditions if you are in that position? Literally, if you have the ears of both the president and the vice president and the government at large, how would you advise them?

For me, if I would have the ear of the president, there's only two things, no, because everything that's going on in the country is really an issue of leadership. It's really an issue of leadership. It's an issue of policy. It's an issue of credibility. It's an issue of competence. Now, if I would be advising the president, if only I can, I will really ask him, are you really fit and are you really capable, and would you really be willing to go through a lot of hardship to address all all problems in the country. Now, if you think that you cannot do this, then probably you should step down. You should go down and let someone else handle it. Then maybe you can also contribute to whoever would be the next in line, because this is not an issue of, of, of, you know, if you really think for your country, it's not really an issue of issue of you not being in, in that highest position, but it's an issue of where are, where are you effective. If you're not effective being a leader, probably you're effective in other means, in other ways. So that, that's maybe my advice to him. But if he would say like, you know, I know I am capable of doing this and I'm capable of continuing and proceeding, probably I would tell him then do it and make a way, do the right thing. And what are the right thing? Stop the corruption that's going on in the country. Don't politically harass the vice president and focus on, and, you know, yeah, especially the, the American influence, the US influence. Try to forge and try to strike an independent foreign policy, and you have to do it not by talking but by action. And let people see that you're really competent, because if not then there's nothing to it. You will— I think if I have, if I have the ear of the president, I will tell him exactly like, you will end up as, as, as one of the president of presidents of the Philippines that is a failure in every sense. And do you want that legacy to be attached to your name? That is a big question that he needs to answer, really, because it's all about, it's all about legacy, really. I mean, how would people recall you? I mean, in their mind, after 8, 6 years of presidency, how would they view you as a president for that 6 years? Would it be positive? Would it be good? That, that's really the measure of everything at the end of the day. And also, going down from power is not really, for me, um, something that is like they will say that you— it's a shameful thing to do. No, it's not, because why? You're giving a service to your country. You're, you're giving a favor to your country to change the course and the direction of the trajectory from, from worst to, to better, to something good. You know, that's the way I see it, because if I am in his position, really, like if I am Marcos Jr., if I can see that I'm not able to do the things that I promised then probably I would just go down and tell someone else, okay, who among you are competent enough to lead the country? Probably you should go up, I'll go down, and I'll just help you, you know, because that is a service to your country. You know yourself if you can do it or not. That is very— I know, I mean, it's, it's a person would know if, if you can do something or not, even a small thing, or, you know, if you can do it or not. Now, if you can't, then why not? Then someone else you will free from stress, you know. That's, that's even the case, you know. That, that's just my— that's my opinion only.

Of course, that's why, that's why, Anna, you need to consider— I don't know, would you consider running for office? Maybe in, in a parliament, maybe whatever political office. Would you ever entertain that idea moving forward?

For you, I'm not sure, but Who knows? Who knows the future? But hope— who knows the future?

Yeah, but you, you promised me one thing, Anna. If you ever do, you grant me an interview.

Yes, yes, definitely. That one, that one is already—

should I have your word on that?

Yes, definitely.

That's it.

Yeah, perfect.

All right, let's move on. One thing actually, you mentioned something about the US interest before and why Marcos Jr., to, to me personally, is not a strong, strong leader. There is one particular aspect that's going on right now, is that the US interest in Philippines, not only from basing the military stuff, it is also from an energy perspective. The US interest in Philippines It has to do with oil and gas industry. That's what I found out. So what I did find out is that the, uh, the US is considering right now, believe it or not, behind closed doors, considering some sort of an investment in Philippines, a multi-billion dollar oil and gas industry. And this is going to be in the west side of the Philippines. Of course, if we say the west side, you know what I'm referring to. That's why the challenges regarding the South China Sea. And this is why I am starting to feel comfortable saying this domestic turmoil is a pretext for what we are thinking about the oil and gas, because the US Energy Information now, the agency, estimated that the South China Sea holds about $190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and 11 billion barrels of oil. So when you take a step back and see why all of a sudden Philippines is descending into this domestic chaos, someone's gonna benefit from this.

Yes.

And this leads, leads me now to ask you the question pertaining to this. And Philippines, vis-à-vis, there are some calls about should Philippines join BRICS. In your opinion, Anna, do you think Philippines is qualified and ready to join BRICS?

Um, in terms of if it's ready and in terms of it's qualified, I would say no. I'm sorry, I mean, I'm a Filipino, I love my country, again, but In terms of, you know, of the situation at the moment of my country, it's not ready to join BRICS. And I don't even think BRICS country would allow the Philippines to join, to be very frank. Why? Because of the so many domestic problems that we're facing. Our economy is problematic as well, and you have a foreign policy that is not balanced and independent. It may affect the relationship in BRICS. And but, but even then, even then, even if we want to be part of BRICS The thing here is like this: the United States under Marcos administration will not be allowed to join BRICS. That's really the truth, or the fact of the matter. I don't think the Americans would allow us, or I would encourage us. I think it would dissuade us from joining BRICS because BRICS, as we can see, two prominent countries in BRICS is Russia and China. And I think these are so-called perceived adversities of the United States. So that's the fact of the matter, David. But if you ask me, I would want my country to be part of BRICS because we will benefit a lot from BRICS, really.

Wow, that's very problematic. What you said to me, the way I interpret it, is that the Philippines will not be allowed to join BRICS. It tells me maybe the Philippines doesn't have a sovereignty as we may think about it.

Well, at this time, would I be fair in saying that? Yeah, but this time really our sovereignty, our autonomy and independence is compromised already. These are compromised by— because I mean, under Marcos Jr., the Americans, the United States really has influence in our foreign policy and even our domestic domestic policies, even especially in defense and military. It's really, it's really true. So in that sense, yes, semi-colonial. We're like a semi-colony of the United States in a modern time, in the 21st century. My God, wow.

So it's like semi-autonomous country, basically. So what is the role of the parliament? If there is a parliament, what is Why, why is the parliament is not doing anything about—

well, our parliament, I mean, we have a bicameral system now, so we have the House of Representatives. The House of Representatives are basically politicians, no, they would always agree to what the current administration or of the— what the wishes of the president and the House Speaker. And the House Speaker is the cousin of the, the president. So in many ways You know, the House is controlled, and, uh, well, yeah, uh, the, the current admin— well, BBM really has a control over the House in that sense, though the Senate is not the same. Um, I think it's more independent. It has more, um, there are more thinking senators in there. But if you really look at the numbers, there are only 24. In the House of Representatives, they have 250. House of Representatives. So there's an imbalance in there, you know. And even then, there are some majority, I think, of the senators are allies of the current president. So in a way, even if they are in favor of something like joining BRICS, if let us say the president would say, no, we don't do that now, nothing happens to it. That's, that's how it is in real politics, real politics.

Yeah, and the average Filipino will end up paying the price economically speaking.

The oligarchs will— I don't think they would agree to that too.

So, you know, interesting. Uh, where does, where does China fits in into this equation? How does China, in your opinion, uh, since you are studying in Beijing, and by the way There were some comments that I read on last video we did. Somebody did just— I had to push back against this kind of narrative that doesn't make any sense, that you are speaking on behalf of China, you're working for China. It's nonsense. So I will say to those individuals, if you don't have anything of substance to contribute to the conversation, please do not comment. Simple as that. So, but anyway, Since you are pursuing your PhD in Peking University, what is your feel about how China sees these developments in the Philippines?

Well, from what I know, China has a very strong and strict policy when you talk about non-interference. So I think when you talk about domestic politics, I don't see China really trying to that interested in our domestic politics. I don't think so. And they have this, they have this strong, strict policy of non-interference, which in many ways I think they really are sikhs in that sense. However, when you talk about relationship between the two country— two countries under a BBM or under a Marcos Jr. government, really our relationship with China is not good. It's diplomatically, politically, and even the economic part of it is also affected. However, when you talk about people-to-people dynamics, of course the Chinese and Filipinos in many ways are friends. So, you know, but the state-to-state level is really not okay. But people-to-people, up to a certain extent, I can sense that we're— Filipinos and Chinese are still good friends, and we don't really discuss politics when we talk about people-to-people. It's more about academics, about business, it's about culture. But on the other hand, China fits in more in the geopolitical dynamics that Philippines is being dragged because of the influence and because of— because we are being used as a proxy and a pawn against China by the United States. I think that's where, that's where China really comes in into the picture, especially when you talk about the Taiwan Strait issue and the South China Sea issue, because China will never— China is strong when you talk about the Taiwan issue. It will never bow down to anything, and it will stand that China— uh, that Taiwan is part of China, and also because of the One China policy. So that's very important for them. And on our hand, and as far as we are concerned as a country, so far under the current government of Marcos Jr., he is saying that we abide and we respect the One China policy. However, one thing though, the EDCA basis Many of it, or some of it, are located near Taiwan or facing Taiwan. And if you look at it, these are military bases, and America is to a certain extent saying one thing but doing another thing. They're saying that they adhere to One China policy, but they're supporting and supplying weapons to Taiwan, which is— have this elements of, you know, separatist elements in there. On the other hand, when you talk about the South China Sea, still the United States is there. Pushing us, poking and using us against, against, um, China in, uh, by creating this kind of— pushing us to create this kind of conflict and escalation in the South China Sea. So that is where China really comes in, and, and that's, that's the dynamics. But this is more about foreign policy, this is more about, um, geopolitical situation and dynamics in the region. Domestically, I don't see China interested that much in our domestic politics. But of course, given, given the not-so-good political relationship between China and the Philippines under a Marcos Jr. administration, I think, no, if I am China, I would be— I would look— maybe China is looking forward to a change of, to, uh, to a leader in the, in the future that is more open to China and it's more open to a friendly relation with China. Maybe they are waiting for that future to happen, like, you know, because we have elections, um, after— in, in 2028, we will have our presidential election. So that would be the, the turning point of— in terms of change of leadership, when you talk about, um, electoral process. So, you know, if there's a change of leadership, there's a possibility as well that the foreign policy will change.. And also there's a possibility that the approach to the South China Sea issue will change to a more diplomatic, peaceful, and a more open communication way. In that sense, no, I don't know. It depends really on the presidency and who will be in power, because everything in my country, the president is really powerful in the same manner that in the United States, I think, to some extent, the president is powerful. In that sense. Yeah.

So will, uh, Sara Duterte run for president, in your opinion?

I am not sure about that. I'm not really sure. Um, every time she is asked about this, she would, she would just say like, uh, it's still, um, it's, it's way too early. It's too early. Yeah, too early for me to think about it. It's in 2028. It's only now 2024. So something like that. He— she said before that she will decide one year before, one year before the election. It means like around 2027, probably you will make a decision. But I asked, uh, if, if she will run or not, that one thing I am not sure about. I am not sure about that.

Well, I'm gonna ask you, this is for my community guys, uh, on the chat box. I'm gonna ask the question quickly here. Just put yes or no. Would you like me to interview the Vice President Sara Duterte? Just put yes or no in the chat box, and I'm gonna read, uh, uh, your answers. Take a look at that later on as we move forward, because that will be an interesting, uh, and it will be fascinating to interview a vice president, a sitting vice president, uh, about the really the conditions in the country as she sees it because she is inside, sort of, she's at the helm of power there. It will be very interesting if that possibility ever, opportunity ever presents itself. So the last thing, Anna, I want to address with you before I let you go, and I know we are so grateful to you for carving out time for us. I know how busy you are going through a PhD process. It's no fun, and, but that's why I always used to say, you know, somebody with a PhD is no smarter than you except that they can see the projects through, meaning from start to the end. And I know how the end of it is. So, but I'm— we are very, very grateful to you for blocking time for us, uh, to be here. So my last question, I wanna— not a question of sort, it's just your take into all the— with all this changes that's taking place right now, and not just only in Philippines. You look at also, as I mentioned earlier, what's taking place in South Korea. You look at the tensions, South China Sea and so forth. How do ASEAN countries and ASEAN as a bloc, an economic one that is, assess the future of the Philippines within that bloc itself?

I think ASEAN would look at the current, the Philippines under a Marcos Jr. administration in a way that it is, because you know, ASEAN countries are, they are not comfortable what's going on in the Philippines, especially when you talk about the foreign policy and approach to the South China Sea. So they probably look at the Philippines as a very volatile country that anytime soon something will happen. And if in any case a conflict in Asia-Pacific will, militarily speaking, will happen, it comes from, it will originate from the Philippines, really. So maybe that's some of, some, maybe these are thoughts that are playing in the minds of ASEAN counterparts, especially ASEAN leaders. However, ASEAN can also do something to, you know, to be a voice as well. In the region, especially ASEAN leaders, to really emphasize that regional peace and stability and security is very important. On the other hand, that the resolution to the South China Sea dispute is not really a zero-sum game. It should be more dialogue, negotiations. And in negotiations, you cannot, you know, in a negotiation, you don't, you cannot say that you will, everything that you want, you will get, No, it's usually you meet halfway because it's a negotiation. You take some, you win some, you lose some. And I think that's the approach in the South China Sea that should be, you know, should be done, even between the Philippines and China. And also, I think ASEAN countries and ASEAN per se should really speak about pushing for the code of conduct in the South China Sea and uphold the DOC of 2012. Especially when you talk about the South China Sea, it's very important. On the other hand, probably they can extend some advice to the current president of my country, you know, especially on how to handle issues, how to handle conflict with another country, and even how to prioritize economic development rather than geopolitics. Because if you really look at ASEAN countries, except the Philippines, all of them— Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, even Vietnam Vietnam, Laos, all of them are so focused on economic development and so focused in trying to have a very good relation with China because they know that they will gain much economically speaking with relation with China, downplay and resolve quietly differences with China. I think in that manner, probably they should try to, you know, be a good examples and try to convince our current president that, you know, probably you should focus more on economics rather than in geopolitics, because nothing will happen to geopolitics. Your country will bleed further, and your country will, you know, it will cost your countries not only sovereignty but even lives if in any case a military outbreak will happen either in the Taiwan Strait or in, in the South China Sea. Domestic politics is one thing, but Economics is also very important for any country, especially for our country. We are not a wealthy country, David. I'm not kidding. Ordinary Filipinos are really having a hard time trying to survive every single day. So that is something that the current administration of Marcos Jr. should acknowledge. And if he cannot really address this, yeah, then probably he should rethink pursuing being president of the country for the longest time, or for until 4 years from now, because he has still like around roughly more than roughly 4 years, I think, or yeah, yeah, around the time, because 2020, the change of leadership, you know, through election.

Yeah, well, that's why, just to go back to that point about economics, you look at, for example, now I just read something yesterday about Cambodia and China embarking on some economic ventures. Uh, yeah, China and Thailand, China and Indonesia, China and Malaysia, China and Vietnam.

Subway, I like railways, speed train. They, they have this already. We don't have a speed train, we don't have subway. Our, our, um, metro system is really problematic too. Sometimes it's okay, sometimes it's not. Really, I'm not kidding.

Yeah.

Oh yes.

Well, the government in Philippines needs to really focus on the people. Economy, like you said, Anna, economy is your engine. It's not your economy, is your engine. And I hope, I hope if Marcos Jr. listening to this video, he will at least hear some advice. But you know, uh, I'm being, I'm being, uh, I'm joking here. So we know Marcos Jr. I'm gonna watch this one here, but I will do him good. It will do him good to listen to some outsider who doesn't have any stakes into, you know, I'm not— for you as a Filipina, you are saying what you're saying for the sake of your country, you know. For me as an outsider, I'm just watching from outside in, no more, no less. So that's why, Anna, I, I give you the last word before I will let you go. Any, any, any word of wisdom from you to share with the community, and, and, and anything you want to say?

Uh, thank you so much, David, again for the second time opportunity for me to be able to share my perspective on different issues regionally, even about the world, and especially about my country right now. I just hope really that, you know, I, I will see my country in a matter of time rising up from all of these problems and, and this. So it's some kind of— we're again back in the darkest time of our history, really, from the time of the martial law. And now it's, it's just, it's even worse, to be very frank with you. So I really hope that, you know, Filipinos also would open their eyes. And I really hope that that sense of active citizenship and responsible citizenship will be imbibed and will be embraced by Filipinos, because only through that they can ursicize what you call the sovereign power of the people in a democracy. If we claim to be a democracy, then people should take that power to be responsible citizen, to be active citizen, and, you know, be engaged in the affairs of the state and be engaged in the affairs of the political affairs of the country and be a voice. Because sometimes that's the problem with Filipinos, they don't voice out even if they're suffering already. They just take it and take it and suddenly they will explode. No, it's not. It has to be out. You have to raise your voice and say your piece so that the government will hear it. Sometimes it takes so many voices before the government hears something. So I think, I really hope that my fellow Filipino will take and embrace that responsibility, that you are not just a bystander. We are all needed by our country. If you want our country to be better. And we have a role to play in all of these things that's going on in the country. Let's, let's re— and I really hope that we, we have this vision for a better Philippines, a more progressive, economically progressive Philippines, and a better Philippines. And I hope that we will not create enemies out of any country but friends, because we cannot live in isolation. There's no such thing. So we have to have good relation with all countries possible, especially major countries like Russia and China and even other countries, major countries in the Asia-Pacific region. That's my wish and that's my hope. And I hope our fellow Filipinos would, you know, would heed this call, this call of, you know, being active in the affairs of the country. Thank you so much.

Oh, my pleasure. There are a lot of Filipino people join us here. Literally on the chat, I look at like this, uh, Marcos is so numb that he doesn't know, he doesn't even know what is going on in the country. Legacy is not on the table. Take and take, it's their only concern. So, uh, yeah, there are some, uh, I saw this one here, Ron Jimenez, Marcos is a very weak leader. So, so that you got a lot. I just want to say thank you to, uh, Kevin, uh, Baptiste, for becoming a channel member. Thank you for being here. And Noel, I want to say thank you for your Super Sticker. Truly, truly appreciate you. I always have to say thank you to the Super Stickers, Anna, and the members and so forth. So, well, on behalf of the entire community, I want to say thank you again for carving out time for us, and I look forward to seeing you next time. You're no stranger now to to the channel here. Uh, you, you, you have a platform here and, and we love to learn from you and, and we appreciate you for sharing your wisdom and knowledge with us also. Thank you again, Anna.

Thank you so much, David. Thank you everyone. Thank you. God bless. God bless and take care everyone. Thank you.

So please wait for me till I say bye to the community, Anna. Okay. All right guys, hope you enjoyed this conversation here with, with Anna. She is a always very insightful to learn, uh, uh, from. And, and we'll have her again on, on, on, on the channel here. So I just want to remind you, remember to join me at 12:15 for the live stream that I'm going to be talking about the threat that President-elect, uh, uh, Trump, uh, uh, has now threatened BRICS countries with tariffs and so forth. So I'm going to be detailing with you, uh, the economic and the geopolitical impact of those. So I look forward to seeing you in that. As always, remember, geopolitics impacts your daily life in more ways than one. Till next time, guys, bye-bye.