The Rise of the Cambodia-China Canal! A Major Concern for Vietnam?

All right, hello everybody and welcome to Geopolitical Trends, where truth matters. Hope you had a good weekend, peaceful one, and whatever you did, enjoyed it. So anyway, very, very excited to be with you here. I have an interesting topic for you, uh, a lot of people will not pay close attention to this. For me personally, as geopolitical analyst, I have to think in those terms of how a project like a canal could change the, the landscape both economically and geopolitically. And this is what I'm going to be talking about today, is the Phunantil Canal in Cambodia that China is going to be paying for. So I'll provide all the details, but before I'll do this, let me just say hi quickly to all viewers here, whoever is logged in so far, uh Willie Holman, as always from Arkansas, good to see you. Richie from Morocco, good to see you. I haven't seen you for a while, Richie. Muslim Revert, good to see you as always. How and Why, good to see you. Macian Dorcier. John Smith from New Zealand. Chase, hi to you as well. Lucio Delgado from Montreal, good to see you. Wong KC, good to see you. John Smith, New Zealand, and Yanas Demisi. Good to see you all from Seattle. All right, let's get into this. Before I'll do any of this, I need to give you a heads up for the upcoming two interviews. I hope you guys enjoy the interviews that I just did with, uh, Richard Turan from Shanghai in China and Kaza from Bali, Indonesia. So my next two guests, uh, the first one would be on the 20th Uh, which is Wednesday, will be with the Adjunct Professor Warwick Pao. That was supposed to have it last week. And the following on that, on the 22nd, do not miss this one as well, guys. It's gonna be with the giant Bahandari. So I know a lot of you, of you been asking me to bring him back, so he's gonna be here soon. All right, today's topic Uh, we're going to be talking about the newly installed government in Cambodia. I had a chance to be in Cambodia way back when I was still working in DC, so I spent a couple days in Phnom Penh. Uh, nice place, laid back, and, and I enjoyed it. I enjoyed it. So, uh, so the Prime Minister, uh, Han Manet, is moving forward with the plans regarding the, uh, the canal that is going to be— it's $1.7 billion that is going to be China-funded canal. So that's a key, and I'm going to share with you why that is a key. So, so the key question that comes with this is the following, especially for those who live in the region there, because you're going to need to wonder and ask yourself. One of the key questions you're going to be asking are, for example, is, is the, uh Is the, is the, uh, uh, Funanqiu is going to be the new Panama Canal in Asia? Because we all know what happened in Latin America with the Panama Canal, especially with the US taking over that back then, is because to control also the political outcome. It's not about just economics. This is what I'm saying, is this going to be the new Panama Canal in Asia? Second thing is How will it benefit Cambodia? Now, of course it's going to benefit Asia. It's going to benefit China, that is. Well, China is funding it, so— and this is not only for, for, for shipping and so forth. It has a lot, a lot of geopolitical implications to it. So as I said, how will it not only benefit Cambodia, but also will it shape the landscape, the geopolitical one? And the third question, which we can't ignore, is, is this going to worry— is going to be worrying Vietnam? Should Vietnam be concerned? The others who said, oh no, it shouldn't be— no, it should. Because if you only know the history between— not the history, but the, the, the, the, the setup between Vietnam and Cambodia Cambodia depends to a degree on Vietnam also economically, and I'm gonna provide you some stats regarding this aspect for you to be aware of it. So, all right, let's get into this. Before I do this, how about if we do some headlines? And I know some of you guys been saying I take too long before I get into the topic, and I'm gonna put a question for you in the, the, in the community. Whether you want me go directly into the topic and I'll skip the headlines and I'll skip the history, I'll skip the geography, or we keep it. So it's only— it's gonna be your vote that's gonna matter in this because we're all in this together as a community. So all right, let's get into some headlines. At least today I'm gonna do this one here. Uh, all right, the first one has to do with— excuse me— North Korea. What's going on with North Korea? Well, guess what, guys? They just tested a ballistic missile today, and the ballistic missiles coincided with— do you guys know why? Does anybody know why they tested today? Who's in South Korea right now visiting? Does anybody know? If you can just guess, let me see if you guys can, uh, can guess about it. Uh, that is correct, Orel Vato. That is correct. It coincided with the visit of Tony Blinken, Secretary of State. So South Korean military announced that, uh, that the— here is the key What I need you to understand about this, that the launch of the unspecified ballistic missile, this is different than what they did back in— if you— if I remember, when was it? Was it in January or so? Yeah, in January. I remember they did the same launch, but they disclosed that this missile was equipped with hypersonic warheads. This one is not. Makes you just wonder. So, and that's what they said, it's coinciding with the visit of the Secretary of State Tony Blinken to, uh, uh, the South Korea. This missile, by the way, has a range of about 300 kilometers. I looked into it, and, uh, uh, sort of before it landed in the East Sea, or also known as the Sea of Japan. So, so I just, uh, want you to know, to be aware of that one. All right, our next one, and I only have about 2 here for you guys today, that's it. Uh, let me remove this one here. Okay, here we go. Now this one has to do with Niger. What happened in Niger? What the military leaders revoked now, the deal between Niger and the US with immediate effect. In other words, they are saying, the US, you done here, your presence, military presence is done. And we do have a presence there. Uh, as a matter of fact, I was thinking of doing a video just on this. I'm very familiar with it. I used to travel to Ivory Coast and Djibouti to, to military locations for us over there. I was aware of the Niger presence in, in none other than this location right here. Uh, let me share the location with you guys so you'll see. Uh, this is where we have our presence, is in, in, in a city called Agadez. If that's where we have it there. So And the Agadez, usually, uh, it's— the base is named 201 Agadez, and we've been there operating. The base was built for about $110 million, and they host manned and unmanned aerial vehicles, part of the counterterrorism and all that stuff. So, so now what you're looking at is the withdrawal of 600 US troops that were stationed in Niger, they will be leaving permanently. No more Westerns. And all this has to do with the— also with the presence now, the upcoming Russian presence, because all three countries, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, decided to go with Russia and China instead of the US. You know, the West has done nothing for Africa but taking advantage of its resources. So that is the bottom line to all this. All right, let's get into our topic today. Well, as I said, the new government, uh, in Cambodia, uh, under the Prime Minister, uh, uh, what's his name, uh, uh, let me, let me get his name right here. So his name is Hun Hun Manet, or Manet, that depends how you pronounce it. So as I said, his new government that's been just established now moving forward with the $1.7 billion Chinese-funded canal. Well, now this kind of projects, there are the locals who are not happy about it because it's going to see now the removal of certain areas altogether. And by the way, there is a great article, for, for this one here that was written by Jack Brook, and I'm gonna provide you the link for it in the description. Very, very, very interesting if you get a chance to read it. And that's what I'm gonna be reacting to here. So, so what is gonna be now is that the idea of this canal, as I mentioned earlier, are we be looking at a new Panama Canal? Because that's gonna pave the way for major changes both economically and geopolitically. But before I'll do this, I'm gonna do a little bit of geography and a history of Cambodia. You need to know a little bit at least because those are basic facts that I believe you should be aware of. So, so let's start with geography as we always do. I'm gonna share the screen with you and I'll give credit to World Atlas. That's where I get the map for from. So here is Cambodia. Here, let me make it bigger. So— oh, sorry, here we go. So Cambodia, it is located in the southern portion of the Indo— the Indochina Peninsula in Southeast Asia. So it's more closer to that. It is situated both in the nor— northern and eastern hemispheres of the Earth. Cambodia is bordered by 3 countries. It is bordered by Vietnam to the east and southeast, Laos to the northeast, and Thailand to the northwest. And Cambodia is also bounded by the Gulf of Thailand to the southwest. So it's very, very important to understand this location. And with this geography, we'll give you an idea also why this canal also can change the dynamics in the region. So let's look at, uh, the history of Cambodia. And this is briefly, guys, I'm gonna go into— I'm not going into more detail on this because I want to focus on the analysis aspects. So of course, uh, I found an article and I'll post it for you, written by David Chandler. Very, very insightful. I looked at it, checked some information of course, and, and, and it collaborated with what I was looking for. So, so basically Cambodia, the history, how, how would you mark it? You're gonna mark it with, with periods of peace but also great, great difficulties and challenges including atrocities that's been committed under Pol Pot, what I'm gonna get on, but also the US under the former or the late Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, who committed atrocities there. As a matter of fact, some documents came up and I am going to disclose this, uh, to you. So, so from the early cities, yeah, way back to the introduction of, uh, both Buddhism and Hinduism, I noticed a lot of Buddhists when I was, when I was in Phnom Penh. So, uh, so the great kingdom of the Angkor. Angkor. So you're looking at the presence of the kingdom, colonialism, and the Khmer Rouge. All this has shaped sort of the history of Cambodia. And of course, when the communist insurgents known as the Khmer Rouge seized control of Cambodia What year did they seize control of Cambodia? Does anybody know? I'd like you to type in, in the chat box, the, uh, I'd like you to type in the chat box the year when the Khmer Rouge took over in Cambodia. Oh, Boon, thank you very much, Boon, for your super sticker, and good to see you because we missed you here. You're looking forward to more shows with Khaoza. Yeah. I'm gonna be doing shows with Kaza every 2 or 3 weeks. He and I, we're gonna be coordinating on this. Uh, Muslim Revert, 1973. No, you're close. Anyone else? Anyone else can guess? Late '60s? No, move forward, move forward into the '70s. Uh, good try, Army with Harmony, good try. One more try, someone else. Come on, guys. Uh, okay. Oh, you got it, you got it, Muslim Revert, you got it. 1973, that is exactly when, uh, the Khmer Rouge took over. And that's just part of how its history moved forward. Of course, uh, uh Cambodia, you're gonna have to think about a 2,000-year history, you know. I mean, it just— you can't ignore all this. And again, I'm not gonna get into all this because it's so long. So, but that's when at least to understand that 2,000 years of history has ended when the Khmer Rouge took over. Well, of course, because the Khmer Rouge at that time intended to break with the past, and that's why they over— to overthrow the Cambodia's social relationships all at that time. So now, archaeological data— there were some archaeological data that revealed that the area which is now called Cambodia was inhabited by human beings at least 40,000 years ago. Yeah, that's how far back it goes, 40,000 years ago. And the cities developed along the coast in the centuries before and after the birth of Christ, believe it or not. So you look, Kana, two main things here: Indian and Chinese pilgrims and traders passed through these cities, and for the first centuries of the Christian era, sources of— for Cambodian history that survived are almost entirely written in Chinese. So Now, some will ask, are there any elements of Indian history into that? Some will say yes, some historical record suggests so, but this is when the roots of the Cambodian elite, especially around the 5th and the 6th century, uh, were several, uh, Hindonized kingdoms. Another word they adopted Hinduism. So, and that's where it sprung up into southern Cambodia. That's why in southern Cambodia there's more Hinduism there than, than elsewhere. So, and this is where you know, for example, historically, that the remains of small religious monuments in bricks, for example, and stones from massive stone sculpture, sculptures, you know, all the sculptures that took place, from the inscriptions of the Sanskrits and Cambodians, or even the Khmer. So the earliest, the earliest dated inscription comes from 4th century CE. Fast forward to the 8th century The Khmer prince, later crowned as Jayavarman II, returned to Cambodia from exile in Java— and you all know where Java is— and began to consolidate the kingdom at that time. In 802, and in a ceremony near the site we now call Angkor, north of Cambodia's greatest lake, he declared himself a universal monarch and founded the dynasty that lasted until Angkor was abandoned in the 16th century. Because here's the thing that I need you guys to know about the, uh, uh, Angkor Kingdom. It was a powerful kingdom that dominated much of the mainland Southeast Asia. That is what I need you to understand. And of course, you, you move forward into the history with the city temples that they dedicated to, uh, uh, Buddha or to the Hindu gods, are among the artistic wonders of the world in Cambodia. Uh, when I was in Cambodia, I was very surprised to find out, uh, French was spoken in certain places. Of course there are French people living there because I ate, I remember, in a restaurant that was owned by French. And I said, uh, what are you doing here? He said, yeah, I own this French restaurant. So, well, the reason being, because you're gonna have to think about why. Who was in France— who was in Cambodia in 1953? It was France. And that's when Cambodia gained its independence from France, believe it or not, in 1953. So, and this is why the history of Cambodia is very, very, very— and I only shared the very snapshot with you guys. Of course, I can't forget what took place in 1975 after Cambodia gained its independence from France in 1953. Entered a short period of peace and prosperity, which many older Khmers now look back as the Golden Age. By the late '60s, however, Cambodia was drawn inexorably into the Vietnam War. And in 19— and this is where the atrocities also that we have committed there, that, uh, what's his name, uh, the late Henry Kissinger did. And in 1975, communist forces known to the outside world as Khmer Rouge, or Red Khmer, overtook or overthrew the pro-American regime that seized power 5 years before. The Khmer Rouge era that followed, at least with about 1.2— a record says, uh, the record, guys, by the way, I found that, uh, says two things. Uh, there are either 1.2 or 2 million, uh, dead that were left at that time. Excuse me. So between, between 1.2 to 2 million Cambodians that died of malnutrition, by the way, overwork, executions, and mistreated diseases. So of course we didn't help matter when, uh, uh, the former late, uh, Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, uh, contributed to all that very, very massively. So, and of course, here is the key, and again I need to test your knowledge. After all these atrocities in 1975, something happened major in 1979. What was it? Which tied to what we're going to be talking about today. What is the main event that happened in 1979 when it comes down to Cambodia? Can anybody guess? And, and it will make perfect sense to you once I'll talk about the analysis and so Oh, oh, Liz McKay, you got it. But what happened exactly? You got it right, it's Vietnam. What happened with Vietnam in Cambodia? Vietnam. You got it, Rabili, you got it. I'm sorry, I got the wrong one here. Where is Ravi Lee? Right here. Ravi Lee, you got it. Vietnam invaded Cambodia in 1979 and established protectorate there at least for 10 years. This is where the ties goes historically between Vietnam and Cambodia, even now into the economic realm, and that's what I intend to, uh, uh, uh, address. And what happened also, very interesting, in 1991, and their peace agreements signed— where was it signed? It signed in Paris, which makes you wonder. Cambodia came under United Nations protection for a time, uh, in preparation for general elections that were held in 1993. And since then, Cambodia has been a constitutional monarchy because it's known as the Kingdom of Cambodia. Uh, I went to the palace. I didn't go inside, but I was outside, just saw it, where Northern Sihanouk was, uh, was there at that time. So, uh, the, uh, it was ruled by coalition government that has accepted large infusions of foreign aid. And in 1999, Cambodia became a member of which, which entity, which economic bloc Cambodia became a member of in 1999. I did mention this one last time, guys. Can anybody tell me? ASEAN. Liz McKay, you got it! And hello to you too, uh, uh, Truth Seeker. Hello to you too. Yeah, it became part of ASEAN in 1999 and became for the first time after centuries of isolation, you know, full-fledged members. By the way, Cambodia is a full-fledged member. So, so, and this is what I want you just to understand, at least about, about Cambodia historical aspect. I have two links which I will share later on, uh, even about the Khmer Rouge history. But there is one particular one we need to know about because we can Like I said, you can't ignore history. And I'm going to show you a picture here, and, uh, of course you know who that is. Yeah, so, uh, and, and we're not pointing fingers here, whatever, you know, we all know atrocities were committed, crimes were committed, you know, that, that's not what I do, guys. What I do is I provide objective information assessments here. Yeah, we're gonna have to address some dark side of history, because we can't be cherry-picking, and I don't do that, and you know that. So, uh, uh, Pol Pot, you know, of course, uh, uh, for, for Pol Pot, uh, which was a political leader, was communist Khmer Rouge government, led Cambodia from 1975 to 1979. I remember, I remember conversation with my dad at that time, and I used to hear him talking to others mentioning Khmer Rouge, and I was like, what the heck is this term? I didn't even know what it meant at that time, but I remember him talking about that one. So, and of course, as I mentioned earlier, some historical record mentioned that it was about 1.5 to 2 million, uh, million Cambodians died of starvation, executions, and so forth. Fight. Uh, his name, by the way, it wasn't Pol Pot. His name was Saloth Sar. That's how he was known. Uh, let me put the name on the chat box for you guys, so just for you to be aware of it. Then there is the name of it. Yeah, his name, Saloth Sar. He was— he was always going by his, uh, nom de guerre. Pol Pot. He was born in 1925 in a small village, Prek Sapeu, located about 100 miles north of Cambodian capital Phnom Penh. His family was relatively affluent and owned some 50 acres of a rice paddy, or roughly 10 times the national average. So, so, and, and we all know the history of it, and I'm not going to get into all this because what happened in 1960 Pol Pot helped to reorganize the KPRP into a party that specifically espoused Marxism-Leninism at that time. 3 years later, following the clampdown on communist activity, he and other party leaders moved deep into the countryside of northern Cambodia, encamping at first with a group of Viet Cong. And because that's when we get in into our involvements with the US, uh, under Henry Kissinger at that time, the late Kissinger, who of course we all know the atrocities that— because we can't ignore that, and I am not going to ignore it because it needs to be addressed. And I will provide you with the link to, uh, uh, and, and here is the thing, guys, by the way, what happened is that, some documents just been revealed recently. When I say recently, last year, right, right before his death, because he reached 100. And some war crime revealed, secret Cambodian bombing that set stage for forever wars. Yeah, that's what was import— that's— I found very important, uh, interesting. And when I read the article, I was like, oh my gosh. You know, this just came out now. So, and the— by the way, it was an investigation conducted by The Intercept which revealed— and by the way, the image you're looking for— you're looking at, I'm sorry, I give credit to Thomas Peter. That's his image there. So, uh, it revealed that, uh, the former US National Security Advisor and Secretary of State Henry Kissinger was responsible even for more civilian death during the US war in Cambodia, you know. And that was, that was previously known. In other words, we heard about some, some crimes being committed by the US in Cambodia, but these documents or revelations revealed very disturbing information. And I'm going to provide you the link to the article because that is not what I'm going to be talking about in this, but I just wanted to highlight this to you. It's a, it's a, it's a good article, and I will share the link with you. I just want you to know I am not going to ignore this part of history because it is very important to understand. Now, as to where Cambodia is going now with this particular canal that China now is funding And once again, here is the key term: China is funding this. Why is it important to start with, or to know from the get-go? It is because it will not be known that Cambodia is putting itself in debt to do this one. And this is exactly— yeah, this is exactly what, uh, has been argued in Cambodia. Uh, because Cambodia has been fixated on advancing this canal, even though some have argued that, well, no, it's going to create flooding and problems and so forth. No, uh, the whole idea of the, uh, walking— because Cambodia is in a very delicate, uh, geopolitical, uh, uh, position right now. It's walking a fine line between China and Vietnam, and it's no easy task for this new leadership. But he is admitting— the, the, the new prime minister, uh, uh, Oun, he's admitting that the path forward is, is, is risky, but he's willing to take that chance because the canal will benefit the Cambodian people. So even though you're hearing some narrative coming out of the West and some inside Vietnam that's saying, well, we don't see how this canal is going to benefit China, so they are warning that, oh, China is just going to be throwing its money, $1.7 billion, into this and build in the next 4 years. No, no, China's not going to just throw its money. China doesn't waste its money. If China didn't conduct its own study to research about this particular project, they won't move forward with it. And that's why I see these arguments coming out of whatever you— either the West or even in Vietnam. It, it doesn't make sense because here is what the Cambodian Prime Minister saying. Aun Manath is saying to Cambodians. You know, he is defending the project's price tag by telling the public so Cambodians know that Cambodia did not— and I repeat, did not— and I quote this one— did not borrow money from China to build the canal, end of quote. This is what he said, emphasizing that the Chinese developer will assume the financial risk. This is what's important to understand before we even get into any of this one here. And to those who argue, oh, oh, it's a— there is no benefit, uh, for China into this, or it's gonna— there's no benefit for— no, no, there is a benefit for all parties who wants to be. Because this is why we're thinking in terms, is this like the Panama Canal? We all know, if you look at history, go back 20 years ago, 25 years ago, go back and check the history of Panama Canal and how it has helped Latin America and global transactions as far as the transfer of goods and shipments of that. This is going to be even better in Asia for one, for another geopolitical reasons, and this one has to do with Malacca Strait. That is why China is thinking strategically about this one in the long term. And, and this is why you're gonna be hearing— because I already read some, uh, some articles pertaining to this right here in the West, in, in Washington. Oh no, this is— no, no, no, no, no, no, no. It's because you all remember what happened after G20 summit in India. Where did the President of the United States went? Can anybody tell me in the chat box? It was historic visit. Can anybody tell me? Please type in, in the chat box. I want to just again, let me just see, uh, and I'm gonna show, uh, some, some locations as to where the canal is gonna go through. And the regions and all that as we move forward onto this. So let me see, first of all, oh, you got it, Boon, you got it right. He wants to Vietnam. And what was the deal for that? Is because the US was very concerned that Vietnam— Vietnam has always expressed interest in maintaining its economic ties with China. Well, of course, all ASEAN saying except for 2 or 3 countries, but at least 2 that I know for fact, or one for fact, is, is Philippines, Singapore to a degree, even though they are still part of the ASEAN, of course, but their policies are— I'll let you decide on that one. And this is one of the reasons why the idea of the argument, oh no, it's gonna be, uh, not benefiting this or benefiting that, no. That doesn't make any sense, because if you look at where the canal is going to be, no, China is thinking in terms of in case there is a blockade in Malacca Strait. And this is why also China thinking in terms of having something in Thailand, because you look at Thailand. So when it comes down to the Mekong River David's gonna be playing a major role into this. And what you're looking at, by the way— and we give credit to the Cambodian submission, uh, uh, the Cambodian— I'm sorry, the Cambodian Association, Economic Association that deals with this. Here is the thing, what I need you to understand: Cambodia's economic interests remain tightly intertwined with Vietnam. Which consider the kingdom a special strategic partner. And why is this? Because Vietnam is Cambodia's second largest trade partner behind China. So there are those who say, well, why should Vietnam be concerned? Well, of course Vietnam should be concerned and worrying about it, because this can change. That does not mean Cambodia is going to stop trading with Vietnam or exchange goods or whatever. No, that's not what I'm saying. It's just the volume of trade between China and Cambodia might increase. And this is why the trade between the two neighbors— when I say neighbors, I'm referring, uh, to Cambodia and, uh, and, and Vietnam. Exceeds about, uh, $6 billion last year. So, so the canal— and, and check this out, guys— the canal could become a fault line between two countries aimed increasing regional polarity. Two countries meaning Vietnam and Cambodia. This is why you're seeing the push against it. And the whole idea for when President Biden went to Vietnam is to push Vietnam away from China. And now when China said to, to Cambodia, sure, we'll be happy to fund the project. And if China funds it and said they will build it in 4 years, you can count on them, they will do it. So that is the geopolitical aspects to it, which by the way, most of what I read did not disclose these aspects of it. Geopolitically is going to change the dynamics because you're going to have more in the region. It's exactly what Carl mentioned, you know. Tomorrow you're going to be saying the same China. And this is where that argument is. And I found it very surpris— very, very interesting how, uh, some— when you look at the map, uh, let me pull the map for you guys again. When you look at the map where the canal is going to be So yeah, that's gonna be direct almost. I won't call it direct line, but it's gonna be going directly from, uh, Phnom Penh all the way down. So, and, uh, you have— I found the research fellow by the name, uh, Shengpor Oun. He's a research fellow at the Cambodian Think Tank. What he's saying is— and then I see his argument. He argued, and I quote, he said, describing the canal as a fulfillment of a national imagination by addressing Cambodia's deep psychic wound from the perceived loss of the entire Mekong Delta when the area was formerly merged with Vietnam under French colonial rule in 1949. This is why, because what I am starting to see as an analyst, what I am starting to see here, the argument is the same one that is made regarding Bhutan. What am I getting to here, guys? Vietnam wanted to keep certain type of— I won't call it dominance, I won't call it control, I will call, I will call it just to keep its hand on Vietnam, on Cambodia, the same way India is wanted to do on Bhutan. You all remember what happened when Bhutan and China wanted to establish diplomatic India, Modi was kind of like, oh no, that ain't gonna happen, because they want to keep Bhutan. I see the same logical arguments made in the case of the Canaan. And this is why you have both sides of the arguments. There are those who are for, and there are those who are against it. And the ones against it are pushed by the West, by the United States, then So, and of course, if you only know one thing, why they even named it the Phnom Canal? Because the canal's nickname derived from the ancient Phnom Kingdom, which extended across the south, southern Vietnamese, and is seen as in Cambodia as precursor of the Khmer Empire. So very, very, very interesting. Uh, once again, you look at the map, its location is very, very interesting because the canal is known as the Tonle Sap Navigation Road, where it's go. So, so the, the Grand Cambodian Plan shows that the 100 meters, going to be 100-meter wide, two-lane canals that's going to be going, uh, back and forth, and it should begin operating in 2028. And mark my word on it, if China said they will complete it by in 4 years, that means they will complete it by 4 years, unless it gets, uh, uh, uh, sort of undermined or compromised, uh, uh, by some outside forces. And we all know what it means. So, so I'm not going to get into the— it's part of, you know, how the, the— this path is going to be tracing its route from the banks of the Mekong, uh, downstream from the Phnom Penh Autonomous Port before cutting across to the Bassac River and continuing for 180 kilometers to the southwestern coastal province of Kep. And this is why also you need to understand why China is also building a naval base in Cambodia, something we don't like. When I was in Cambodia back then, it was a conversation I remember back at the embassy, or because I wanted to go to Vietnam, uh, but I didn't get the authorization at that time from Washington to go because you can't just travel, you know. I was under the sort of— I was working in Washington, so you can't just go as you please. It's, it's protocol, no more, no less. But that is the reason why some Now there is the arguments that, uh, in Kip Province, those who know the area very well, uh, argued that, uh, it, it's gonna hinder the fishermen there and so forth, uh, because it's considered an economic zone and so forth. I do not know much about this particular part, the Kip Province, uh, and if anybody can shed some lights, it will be greater, it would be great. So there are those who saying, uh, uh, the people who live, like for example, I came across a taxi driver, his name was Mao Sarin, he's 63 years old, which he lives in that area with his wife and, and daughter, uh, on the Mekong River, you know. And he argued that, you know, this will have to dis— the canal will displace him Well, I am sure they're gonna— they're not gonna— the government of Cambodia is not gonna just throw him in the street. They're not gonna do that. And I don't see— I don't see Chinese even allowing that to happen because that will be cruel and inhumane, and that will become very problematic. And that is why, uh, some in Western think tanks will push the argument for that, you know. I'm sure the government, the Cambodian government, will have to have a play Are you ready? I have some sort of a plan in place how to allocate those people from near banks into safe locations. Now here is the thing, you have to think about it logistically also, because when you think about it logistically, you're going to be looking at companies that are involved, like the Chinese company here that is involved into this particular, uh, aspects of it. You have to think about it in terms of the idea that even Cambodian, uh, officials within the government and the business leaders, both of them agree. And I am sure they agree because it's how it's going to benefit the Cambodian people. They both agree that this canal will be part of a broader logistics overhaul to reduce— here is the reason why to reduce shipping cost by as much as 30%. Why is that important? Is because it's going to help Cambodia become more competitive in key export sectors. You all know about, for example, China thinking about the distribution hubs in the area. Which makes perfect sense. ASEAN countries will benefit, Asia will benefit, Europe will benefit, even the US will benefit. But for us is we don't want that. So this is where the government in Cambodia is arguing. Even the business leaders are saying, you guys, you Cambodian people needs to understand, cutting 30% of the cost is going to benefit the country on a bigger deal. So, and what this is going to do to Cambodia with this? So it's going to change the dynamics. And this is why, uh, uh, the, the, uh, the, the counterarguments, if I may. And for example, you think about the Center for Southeast Asia Studies. There's a center, yes, and I do look at their research as well. Uh, there is a guy by the name, uh, Sotrak Sok. He's a researcher there. He has noted, and I quote, there is an underlying rhetoric of reclaiming sovereignty, what PM Han Manet has described as breathing through our own nose, end of quote. I can just see the wording of this suggesting that No, no, no, no, no, we don't want the Chinese influence here, or even we don't want Cambodia to move into that direction. This is the same thing like the Maldives did by asking India to leave completely and shift towards China because of economic prosperity. And this is why what you're seeing coming out of Hanoi— Hanoi, the capital of, uh, of, of Vietnam is that they're raising the concerns about environment. To me, it's nonsense. You know why I say nonsense? Is because you do not embark on a project like this unless you look the— you look into the ins and outs of the environmental consequences of it, and you cannot move an inch without ensuring the study the research about this one that has to go through many layers of scrutiny to ensure its viability. So, and this is why they are arguing that, uh, uh, uh, Han, uh, uh, Manet, who succeeded his father— by the way, his father's name Han Sen, uh, uh, who ruled for over 40 years in Cambodia. So, and this is why top Cambodians now arguing that no, no, no, no, no, this is the result of a number of studies that was conducted because they are pushing back against what Vietnam is saying. There will be no impact on environment. The only impact that I see personally first is on the locals And those locals will have to be provided housing somewhere, and the government will have to do that as part of the project. So, and by the way, the, the study that the Vietnam was mentioning was not made public. So, and this is where I see the challenge. So now you got another expert from Washington, DC. Here is what he's saying about this particular location, and I'm gonna share with you what he's saying. That's why I wanted to present this on both sides of the argument. So, so last August, uh, uh, when, when the Manet government came to power, Cambodia, what the government did, notified The Mekong River Commission, which by the way, that first pictures you looked at, uh, this picture was, was, uh, uh, by the— this one here is by the, the Mekong River Commission. That's what this picture was coming from. So what they said back then is that the regional oversight body, this, uh, uh, Mekong River Commission. They saying that the plan to build the canal, one, sort of, uh, the impact will be limited. This is what they're saying. So however, Mekong expert, which is from a United States think tank— now to me, I found it very interesting that, that an expert from Washington would be, uh, his name is Brian Earler. He healer of Washington, DC think tank Steinem Center. He said, and I quote, it is undeniably that the canal directly affects the Mekong mainstream based on the map submitted to the MRC, which is the Mekong, uh, the Mekong River Commission, by Cambodian authorities, and that the impact will be far greater than those claimed by Cambodia, end of quote. And that the picture you're looking at, they saying that's where the impact is going to be. So, and this is what I'm saying, they turning this into fiasco is because China is getting involved and funding the project. And I don't buy that argument. I just don't buy it. So now here is where the fear of Vietnam is, because there is a fear of Vietnam. So the fear of Vietnam, of course, the Vietnamese foreign minister— and remember, link this one to the last trip of the president of the United States to Vietnam. You know, he didn't go— pardon me, he didn't go to Singapore, Biden. He didn't go to Philippines. He didn't go— which, by the way, speaking of Philippines, Tony Blinken is going to Philippines as well, and to my knowledge, he might make stop in Japan. So, so Vietnamese Foreign Ministry spokesperson said that Hanoi supports the socioeconomic development of its neighbors but has asked Cambodia to collaborate closely, so to share information regarding the project's impact on the Mekong Delta, to ensure harmonious interests in, uh, of both countries and local residents. I don't know, I don't know. Me reading this, it tells me something else. They want to know the ins and outs so they can undermine it, because that's how you— you all remember what's going on in Gwadar right now in Pakistan. Who is funding Gwadar project? It's China. Why do you think there are groups that targeting Chinese employees and targeting the Gwadar? Because they don't want it to develop. I see the same argument, but to counter-argue this what this guy said from Vietnam. Cambodian top government scientist, his name is Sok Touch, or Touch, and he's the president of the Royal Academy. He has implied that Vietnam's real fear is a loss of control over Cambodia and that Hanoi should mind its own business. And this is again, end of quote, by the way. And this is again where I found the, the, the compatibility between what India is doing to Nepal, certain part in Nepal and Bhutan, and what Vietnam, uh, uh, vis-à-vis Cambodia. And please correct me if I'm wrong. So, and this is where I see, uh, uh, that arguments why it's not working. The picture you're looking here, you're looking at here, guys, This is the, uh, this is a facility of the Chinese state-owned China Road and Bridge Corporation, CRBC, in Cambodia. That is the ones conducting the feasibility study of the Phnom Technology Canal. That's what I'm saying. If China decides to move forward, it's not out of the whim of its will. It's because it's based on solid evidence. The research will have to go through so many layers of scrutiny to ensure this one. And the Cambodian government has already announced that the beginning of the canal construction will begin this year, so there is no other way around that one. Now, when you look at further up the coast from Kampot, which is the— where the new canal will allow easy access to and from the Sihanoukville Special Economic Zone, a recipient of significant Chinese Belt and Road Initiative. That is what is aiming at. Now it's become clear to you guys why you're reading or hearing those counterarguments that— because they— that's all this to undermine the BRI, part of it. So because the Sihanoukville Autonomous Port, which handled, by the way, a majority of Cambodia's imports and exports— the canal is going to help with this, you know. And nearby is the controversial Ream Naval Base, which is receiving a Chinese-funded upgrade, worrying views by the US as evidence of its role in the future People's Liberation Army base, a prospect which Cambodia has repeatedly denied. So now when you look at both the Vietnamese And the American commentators have also expressed concerns that this canal will be subject to use for military purposes by Beijing, though there is no indication of it. So, and to me, that's where I had to go and dig deeper into something else. And what I found, uh, What I found, guys, is— let me share something with you here. I found, uh, if I do have the picture— no, I don't. But I found, I found the link, uh, that the Center for Strategic and International Studies, which I'm very familiar with in Washington here, has released a survey of new buildings and roads in Ream Naval Base in Cambodia showing the construction is continuing for the Chinese naval base. And their argument was, no, no, no, no, this is going to be, uh, uh, it, it's not going to bode well because they don't want Cambodia. They want to try to convince Cambodia not to allow. So we confirm that the base— that's what they're saying, and I quote— we confirm that the base is not built to serve the interest of China. This is what the, the Cambodians saying, but the, the Center, uh, uh, for Strategic Studies, uh, Strategic and International Studies is countering that one. And I don't, I don't buy that argument. I don't buy their arguments. Now there is another aspect I need to show you which we have to— I have to mention it because this way you have a full picture of it. And this one has to do with Vietnam and Cambodia trade. Now when you look at— you're looking at that map right there, the picture rather. Now this one, it came up from, uh, uh, uh, Khac Giang Nguyen. He's a Vietnamese researcher, uh, research fellow at the, uh, ICA in Singapore, Institute in Singapore. What he said is that he didn't believe Vietnam's economy will be significantly impacted by the CANA, given the relatively small trade volume involved. But I argued it was unwise to hastily advance such major project without fully understanding its potential impacts. Logical arguments. But if we look at the numbers— and what are you looking at here in this picture? You're looking at the trade between, uh, uh, uh, Vietnam and Cambodia. Okay, Cambodia's export to Vietnam So you look at the export side, how much Vietnam exports to the US, how much it exports to Vietnam, to China, and so forth. You look at on the other side of the import, how much Cambodia, uh, uh, import from the US, from Vietnam. But look at China, how much he import. And this is from January 2023 to January 24th. And by the way, the source of that picture is Cambodia Ministry of Economic and Finance. So you're seeing where that picture, that images is. So, so Vietnamese analysts have argued that now Hanoi retains leverage over Cambodia, pointing out that ships carrying in more than 1,000 tons will still rely on Vietnamese port to travel up the Mekong mainstream. So, and this is why Vietnam sort of resorted to its control of the southern Mekong Delta in clashes with Phnom Penh, including blocking ship traffic up the river for several months in 1994. It happened in 1994. And in 2000 '09, Cambodia and Vietnam signed the treaty allowing freedom of navigation along the Mekong River. And this is what I wanted to highlight to you, where all this is all about. That's why it's more than what can meet the eye. So, all right guys, I am gonna be taking some— I take two questions or so here. Before I sign off. And just to remind you once again, remember to join me on Wednesday, uh, for my conversation with Adjunct Professor Warwick, and on Friday with, uh, Giant Bahandari. And I posted already in the community, and I will post the links for you later on. Uh, let me take a look at some questions. As to the support for the channel here, guys, Uh, I want to post the link for you for— I had something for you if you want to read up some articles that I saved last time, but I don't know where I put them. Let me see if I can get to them. No, I don't have them. Uh, yes, I got the link. I'm gonna put a link for you guys on some articles that I wrote, uh, for the Huffington Post right back then when I used to write for them. If— because it has some interesting aspects of what I've been— what I'm addressing today. So, all right, here's the link to the channel. For those who wants to do PayPal, if you want to support the channel through PayPal, I'm very grateful to you, uh, for that one. And, uh, uh, for the other ones on the channels, for both the trip and the Asia trip, the lower link is for the Asia trip and the first one is for the channel. And speaking of that, I'm gonna give a shout out quickly here to, uh, Buy Me a Coffee members. Uh, there are some members there that became members, so I'd like to give a shout out. Quickly, if you allow me, uh, because it's the right thing to do, uh, and I want to— let me log in here quickly and, and do that one. And by the way, there are those, as I said, that sent some comments. They want me cut down about 10-15 minutes before I'll get into the topic, uh, and I'm gonna ask your opinion into all this. If you want me to do that one. Uh, some of them, and I saw one of them, I had, I checked, he's a truck driver and he said, you know, I just don't have a lot of time and I like to read your stuff. And I, I can understand, but I want the community to have a say into this, so I'm gonna put that later on. So, all right, for the members, uh, and I want to give a shout out, actually I'm gonna share the screen with you because I want you to see with your own eyes here, uh, for the members. So, so I want to give shout out to Sean who became a member, and thank you very much, Sean, for buying me coffee yesterday in addition to becoming a member and buying and donated for my Asia trip. Uh, Lang Wong is a, he's a member, uh, a platinum member on, on Buy Me Coffee. He bought me 55 cups of coffees and bought me about 10 cups of tea for my Asia trip. So thank you so much. Uh, uh, uh, Jay Haha Left Hook as a member, John Julius Jones, American Citizen, David Harris, uh, Todd Z, and someone by the name, uh, Samaransi, and Harold Yu and, uh, she need their lens. So thank you all for becoming member. As far as those who, uh, uh, supporters and bought me, uh, uh, coffee— and Drag, uh, 88, as always, buys me coffee. He's been buying me coffee every day for the last literally 2 or 3 months since I start, every day. So same thing with the, with TC Quan, been buying me coffee on both. So, uh, Ramzi, uh, here he is, buy me 10 cups of coffee. So I'm very grateful to you guys, and I want you to know, I, I cannot say— I cannot say thank you to those who argue that I should cut this short and all that. I, I can't. I'm sorry, I just can't, because showing gratitude is very important, and I don't want to— I I can't. I won't live with myself if I am just to accept your donations without even expressing gratitude. I wasn't raised that way. I'm sorry. And to those, you know, you can just fast forward if you don't want to listen to this, and I'm okay. So, so thank you all for your support. It means a lot, and I am grateful to you for that. All right, let me look at a question or two from you guys. I'm gonna scroll all the way up to the top. We had about 600 live viewing here, so I'm gonna scroll all the way and, uh, and, and, and go my way down. If you— if I see— just put Q as always, guys. And I appreciate your civil discourse here on the, on the, uh, on the, uh, chat box. I really thank you guys, and, and I appreciate you because I don't have time to be staring at the comments to see if somebody saying something rude or whatever. So I'm, I'm very grateful to you, and I count on you guys to keep an eye. You alert me if someone is out of line, I'd be happy to remove them out of— because it's not our, our forum is not for that. Yeah. All right, let me take a question from Francis Tango here. Uh, question: why does China export VLN China has BRI after all. Uh, well, yeah, it's because the expansion of the BRI— remember, China doesn't want— China is thinking strategically about the whole BRI thing, is about strategic vision, not for the next year, 5, 10, even though it started back in 2010 when the idea was about, and '13 was launched and so forth. It was about strategic position of China 25, 30, 35, 40 years down the road. This is why we having a hard time in the West accepting the rise of China. And China thinking also on the logistics aspects of it. So to China, it's a worth investment. 1.7 billion is nothing. It's a great investment for a long term. Yes, the BRI is part of it. That's the way, the way I understood it, I interpret it. All right, next question from Y. A. Question: Why is China considering all these canals? Canals? Is Malaysia edging more towards the Western countries? Funny you said this because I am thinking of making this a topic for my conversation with Carlza. He lives in the neighborhood, and I'm gonna do also Indonesia. Malaysia and Indonesia, yeah, their security ties to the US. Their economic ties is split, in my opinion. Even though Indonesia is moving towards China, Malaysia has also made it clear that its economic prosperity is with China, because it makes sense. No matter how you look at it, no matter how you slice it, you can't ignore the Chinese sheer size of the market. So Uh, building canals is facilitating the movements of goods, in my opinion, because you don't want to be limiting yourself to one or another. That's, that's my, uh, if someone has a better understanding of this, guys, uh, please feel, feel free to express your opinion. So, Timeline, I take question from you, and thank you for your comment, by the way, Timeline, uh, on, uh on the posting that I had, uh, on, on the community. Uh, did New Zealand back China for market more— for, for market more trade? Uh, not to my knowledge. And I do— New Zealand had good ties economically with China, but this new government is kind of doing about-face slowly. So I don't see New Zealand experiencing the same fate Australia, because Australia is in bad shape economically. So I don't see them doing that. All right, uh, let me see one more. I'm scrolling all the way down and, and sign off before I leave here. Uh, take a look at that. Oh, oh, hey, Sarom! Dr. David, you're great. No, thank you, man. I appreciate it. I mean, we all are. We all are, we all are, you know. It's— we're learning here. That's what I'm here for. As I told you guys, I gave up teaching to do all this. And, uh, I know some gets frustrated because I take a little bit too long to do this, that. Well, I'm sorry, I can't do this show in 30 minutes. What am I going to cover in 30 minutes on this? And I don't do, uh, I, I don't do shortcuts. I can't. Either I do it the right way or not at all. I can't. I can't. Uh, you are most welcome, Hong Wong. Thank you also. You're most welcome. By the way, guys, uh, the survey question that I put for you about the brain— I don't know if you saw it or not. To those who haven't seen it, if you go to the community, uh, tab that's on for the channel, and I I asked a survey question, and the survey question was about, uh, what makes us intelligent. Uh, let, let me share it here with you. Uh, I asked the question because I had a chance to read the research study about the, uh, link between, uh, uh, some of us, uh, uh, uh why we lack concentration. Uh, is this because of lack of intelligence, or is it because something else? So, so, and, uh, and the question I asked is, is lack of concentration evidence of lack of intelligence? So 22% said yes, 65% said no, and 13% said I don't know, which is right. That's why I always put I don't know. And, and interesting enough, that's more and more leaning towards the 65%, that is no. It's not linked to the lack of intelligence. We are all smart in our own way. It's like in languages, how fluent are you? That has nothing to do with intelligence. How fluent are you has to do with your part here in the back of your head that is called the hypothalamus. Hypothalamus. If your hypothalamus is very active, you tend to learn languages quickly because the hypothalamus is connected to the front lobe that deals with languages. And this is why, uh, once you learn one language, you will be able to pick up two. Has nothing to do with intelligence. The same thing on this. Maybe the ability of lack of concentration is you don't focus enough because the wiring in your brain is not stimulated. Well, how you stimulate that? Well, good eating habits, good hygiene, good sleep. You take good, good of your health. That's to me, I see it. So, so, and I'll be happy to put the link for you guys if interested. Uh, as far as, uh, uh, the study in itself. So, all right guys, I hope you find this very informative, and I look forward to seeing you next time. As always, remember, geopolitics impact your daily life in more ways than one. Thank you all. Bye-bye.