The Strikes That Backfired: Iran, North Korea, and the New Nuclear Reality

Hello everybody and welcome to Geopolitical Trends, where truth matters. Excited to be with you as always. As you all know, United States launched the sort of devastating strikes on a nuclear programs in history in Iran. That's what they claimed. But what they didn't realize is that in doing so, may have just convinced now every vulnerable regime on Earth that building a nuclear deterrence is the only way to survive. And that is exactly the mistake the United States made. And that is why North Korea has publicly now, uh, declared its support for Iran. So I'm going to be providing you my own insight as to what that support means, uh, in what form it's going to be, and and what it means in a big picture, geopolitically speaking, given there are some movements in the Far East as we speak. So the question we become— the question that we ought to ask is right now is what does North Korea's support for Iran signal? Because they came out publicly. Will it enter the fight? It's a logical question to ask. North Korea has publicly, according to the records here, of course condemned the US-Israeli strikes on Iran. I found it very interesting. Was any other Muslim country that came publicly and condemned the Israeli strikes on Iran? I'm wondering. But here is what North Korea said, and you all know Kim Jong-un doesn't hold back. He described these strikes as a gangster-like conduct, in quote. At the same time, Kim Jong-un endorsed the, the appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as the new Iran's Supreme Leader after his father, the late Ali Khamenei, was killed in the opening strikes. That I found very, very interesting dynamics for North Korea to come openly, publicly, and, and stated what it stated. At the same time, when Kim issued this statement, he also oversaw a test firing of strategic cruise missiles from North Korea's newest and largest naval destroyer. It's called the Choe Yeon. Sorry if I mispronounce this. I'm going to share a picture with you here. This is the recent North Korea's naval destroyer. And what's interesting about this is that the North Korean leader sort of, when he said this, put a remark: "This is maintaining," in quote, "maintaining and expanding our powerful and reliable nuclear war deterrent," in quote. Very, very interesting. So what does the support really actually signal? It might not be in terms of physical, as far as sending troops like what they did with Russia, or maybe missiles, but at the same time its backing is largely strategic. And that, in my opinion, not a sort of precursor to a direct military involvement, because you're going to have to think about so many dynamics at play into this. One thing is sure is that To North Korea, this is new— this is what, what happened with Iran sort of reinforces now North Korea's nuclear justification. Because what North Korea is going to be doing now is drawing a familiar lesson from the Iran crisis. And that lesson is regimes without nuclear weapons are vulnerable, and those with them are far less so. This is why, again, I said the US will dare to threaten North Korea or Pakistan for that, or even if India will threaten Pakistan, they can't. And I'm going to put it bluntly for you here, you know, Kim is likely concluded, in my own assessment, that Iran was attacked precisely because it hadn't had managed to develop the nuclear weapons. Of course, there are some who argue that Iran might have about 8 nuclear warheads, to my knowledge, but has not been confirmed. So I cannot, uh, uh, categorically confirm that it has. It might have something else, and it does have something else. As a matter of fact, tomorrow I will be doing a video for you. I know it's Saturday, but I'm going to do it because What Iran just deployed, another missile that hit one inside Israel. So of course the media is a blackout on that information. I got the clips, I verified the clips from overseas, and I'm gonna do that for you tomorrow. But suffice it to say, for North Korea, they, they kind of reached that point. This is exactly where the, the, uh, the aspect is. So I'm gonna play a clip for you here. And I think it's in— yeah, hold on a second. It's in English here. I don't need to do the translation for you, so let me just put it on the screen, then we'll take a listen at it. Ah, let me— because it's too loud here. All right, let's take a listen here, please.

It was up to the United States to decide whether it wanted peaceful coexistence or eternal confrontation with North Korea, making it clear that would require the US recognizing his country as a nuclear weapons power. Kim made the remarks towards the end of the ruling Workers' Party Congress held every 5 years to set the economic agenda as well as foreign policy and defense, highlighted by a military parade featuring recently returned Korean veterans of Russia's war against Ukraine, attended by Kim's daughter, Ju-ae, who Seoul believes is being prepared as his successor. Kim's remarks suggest he is leaving the door open for talks with US President Donald Trump Moon, who has also expressed a willingness to meet. But Kim rejected Seoul's overtures for dialogue, saying South Korea is now seen as a permanent enemy. He also reasserted North Korea's status as a nuclear weapons state, vowing to increase the country's stockpiles. No sooner had the Congress drawn to a close than South Korea and the United States announced they would go ahead with joint military exercises next month known as Freedom Shield, involving 18,000 troops training for what would be a simulated attack by North Korea. Jack Barton, Al Jazeera.

So, okay, that's very interesting dynamics going on. That's why I wanted to share this, but also for you to understand the timing of it between the announcements of Kim Jong-un the fire, the testing of the ballistic missiles, and of course, the support for the new Iranian leader, Mojtaba Khamenei. Now, there is a diplomatic balancing act into this. Let's not make a mistake about this one, because what North Korea appears to be doing, two things in my opinion. One is to condemn the US military action against Iran publicly and openly, and at the same time maintaining some sort of a language that will completely not shut down the door on future talks with the Americans. North Korea also could be looking at this from a different angle altogether, and that angle is, is that North Korea could have access to Iranian oil. It's like what China is doing here, because that's an economic opportunity you have to consider. Into all this. Because at the same time, Iran now has shift its war material to its own fight, you know. And that in itself, that in itself, the economic opportunity, not just about the energy, but it creates some sort of a gap in Russia's supply chain that Kim Jong-un regime will likely be happy to fill. Because remember, North Korea is also good at missile technologies. And that, in, in, in this case, will increase the Russian dependency on North Korea. It's, it's a, it's a game in geopolitics. That's how it works. You have to think about this. Now, the fundamental question we have to ask is, will North Korea enter the fight directly when it comes down to the US, Iran, and Israel? In my opinion, Certainly not the case. No, that's my own opinion. Maybe I'm wrong, maybe not, but so far as of now, I don't believe so. So it is highly unlikely North Korea will actively sort of assist the Iranian regime militarily. Could they send some types of weapons, spare parts, and all that? Possibly for that, because it is too far away, first of all, logistically. It's too far away to provide any meaningful military support. But at the same time, don't remember— don't forget the two countries, Iran and North Korea, have sort of maintained military cooperation over decades, for years. This relationship really, really goes way back, except it lacks some sort of a deep economic and cultural foundational. They only share certain missile technology apparatus regarding this aspect. What's important to understand is that when the war settles, when the dust settles, there is a possibility that Iran might likely turn to North Korea once again, sort of full-fledged here. But this one won't be just for the missile, it would be for the nuclear apparatus because Mujtaba Khamenei will be the one to move forward in this, in this nuclear project, per se. And this in itself will sort of revive now, because both countries, Iran and North Korea, will have now a sort of a common hostility towards Washington, and rightly so. North Korea are expected now to resume the cooperation on missiles and rebuilding the uranium enrichment facilities. That's why I'm saying the way I see it moving forward, especially with the, with the, uh, Mustafa Khamenei, he's going to move forward into the nuclear aspects, might be sooner than later. This is why North Korea is saying to the Americans, you need to recognize us as a nuclear power. Of course North Korea is saying this, they don't care whether the Americans recognize them or they, they are nuclear power. The bottom line, that's the end of story of it. And the US will dare to threaten North Korea. And this is again where in the case of Iran, it will actually feel the need to secure those kind of capabilities for massive retaliatory strikes. Iran so far didn't show everything. And that's why one of the thing I'm going to be talking to you about, I was aware of one specific type of missiles have not been deployed before. It was just deployed 2 days ago. There is a media blackout on it. I'll talk about it tomorrow. But suffice it to say, within this picture, this is what Iran is hoping to move forward. So the big picture looking at this is the idea that for, for Pyongyang or North Korea, that is, this kind of incidents with between US, Israel, and Iran represent not only another example of Washington using force against its adversaries, you know, but also to— but also sort of using an attack on a longstanding diplomatic and military partners as well. And this is now where it becomes where this is going to go. So at the same time, you have to think in terms of what are the calculations, geopolitical calculations for North Korea. More so than for Iran, because North Korea also might look at this as an opportunity to use Iran as propaganda tool, not using it in a bad way, but in a way that it's now or never. To a tool for what? To harden, in this case, to harden North Korea's posture domestically and regionally, because it maintains its anti-US alignment. Publicly. And of course, it's sort of positioning itself as an indispensable arms supplier to Russia, all while keeping diplomatic options with Trump open. I will be talking on this aspect specifically pertaining to Russia on Monday with Larry Johnson. Larry Johnson will be here on Monday, and I intend to ask him this specific question. Now, there is one event that took place, and I mentioned it last time, and this has to do with the US withdrawing, uh, the batteries of missiles from South Korea. So the question becomes, is how does North Korea see this? Because US has no other option but to do that in support of its ongoing war against Iran, which, by the way, is Iran now that has the upper hand You know, we heard the Secretary of Defense, that Pete Hegseth, the guy wasn't even qualified to be in the position. During the briefing, he stated that, well, we know the Strait of Hormuz is open except when Iran fires at the ships. How stupid that is. Strait of Hormuz is not open. And Pete Hegseth needs to stop lying to the media. Strait of Hormuz is closed to the point now you have the Gulf Arab states asking for considering some other sort of hub in on the Red Sea. But what makes the Arab countries, uh, the Gulf, think that the Red Sea will be any safer? That's stupidity, because it's the Arab states themselves, Bahrain, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Jordan, even to a degree then Egypt, all of them allow US military presence to be in. And by the way, you all remember that picture I showed you of the school that's been attacked inside Iran with girls, uh, that 160, uh, school girls were, were killed by a missile strike. That missile strike was launched from Bahrain, but that school also, you know who those girls were? Those girls were the daughters of the IRGC officers, which, by the way, it's a war crime to target a civilian installation or facility that is schoolgirls. You know, you attack in school, that's a war crime, to say the least. Shame on my country for doing that. If you are to fight Iran, fight Iran on military targets. Not on targeting schools. And that just shows the desperation because we have no plan, we have no strategy. We thought that we're gonna go show this military force the aircraft carriers and so forth, which by the way, stay with me till the end because I'm going to show you some clips. One of them has to do with the USS Abraham Lincoln that has left the region. Once again, they're staying quiet about this information. And, and just, uh, to continue on my, on my argument about showing this force and thinking we're gonna have Iran cave in, turns out to be the reverse. It's the reverse. And that shows the— this is why now the US is stuck. Israel is devastated inside, and I'm going to show you some clips here, but I'll show you tomorrow when I do livestream for you. And Israeli government issued the, the, the orders to keep the information tapped. No media release regarding what's been targeted. And, and you will find out tomorrow, so make sure you join me tomorrow. Now, for North Korea's action, of course the action speaks louder than its words. I'm not saying otherwise, but you have to put it within the context, because here is what Pyongyang did. Pyongyang issued no formal statements about the withdrawal of the US batteries from South Korea. But the behavior of North Korea is the signal. And what is that signal? North Korea went ahead and tested— test-fired a cruise missile from its warship, the ones here that I showed you earlier. Okay, this is the second test in a week that it launched its new sea-to-surface weapon surface. Second time. And because why? By the time North Korea noticed that the US is withdrawing this from South Korea, which South Korea we all know has no sovereignty, when you have over 30,000 troops on your soil, you get no sovereignty. This is exactly the problem in the Gulf States. You blame the Gulf States, not Iran that attacked. Iran attacks the military installation on those Arab countries because those Arab countries have no sovereignty on their territory. Well, it becomes on you, and that's exactly what the new leader of Iran, Mustafa Khamenei, is saying. In his first public statements, he said, you know what? We have nothing against our neighbors. And I believe in that. Literally, if there were no military installations there, Iran will never, will never attack its neighbors because Iran doesn't do that. But because the military installation is still there, Iran has justification. The missiles, as I said, that target that school, was launched from Bahrain. What do you expect? With Qatar allowing the largest military installation in Middle East, what do you expect? Which, by the way, that, that base turned to a rubble. It's a rubble like exactly what you see in Gaza. So Iran has the right to defend itself and strike those installations. And this is why even the Egyptian, uh, president, the, the dictator, or whatever his name is, that came to power by removing a democratically elected president, Mohamed Morsi. So Sisi himself is saying, well, Iran shouldn't sort of attack the Arab Gulf, and we can play as a mediator. No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, Sisi. You're saying this because you are begging for money from those Gulf states. Shame on you. And that money doesn't go even to the Egyptian people. It's like what we're doing, giving Egyptian a yearly $2.2 billion a year. Now we reduced it to 1.8. Where that money goes? It goes to the coffers of those corrupted generals inside Egypt. Egyptian people see no dime of that. Why are we giving our tax dollars to the Egyptians and the Jordanians and others? No. So it becomes shame on Arab. And this is why you have majority of other Muslim countries saying, you know what, Iran is doing what's right. Iran is targeting the US installations because they are on the Arab and Muslim soils, and those Muslim countries allowing that. It was never about safety or security, it was, it was about the survival of the monarchies. Straightforward. So Iran has the right to target those installations, and they're gonna continue to do so till those bases are closed. And that's exactly what Iran has said to those countries. We are not targeting you, we are targeting the US installations where the missiles have been fired. That becomes on you. Show some sovereignty, show some sort of— you have, it's your country. But in this case, it's not. The same arguments can be made about South Korea since we're talking about the North Koreans looking at the withdrawal of those missiles. Now, here is the thing of why South— North Korea did what it did as far as the US now shifting their air defense assets out of South Korea. So the timing is almost certainly deliberate why Kim did those two tests, because what Kim is doing, he's probing. Not just posturing, he's probing. Yeah, it's the world of geopolitics. You have to think about your own strategic interests. And the strategic calculus in Pyongyang is that from North Korea's perspective, this is a very crucial timing, crucial dynamics. It shows genuinely that there is a gap now that has opened. Seoul, South Korea security establishment, fear now that any reduction in visible American missile defense systems or presence could be interpreted in Pyongyang as an opportunity to exploit this perceived weakness in allied deterrence posturing. North Korea has no interest in, in going and invading South Korea. Excuse me. They're not gonna do that. But for North Korea to go ahead and conduct more than 20 missile launches in 2026 alone, the beginning, we just only at the third month here. That includes, by the way, which media will not disclose it here in the West, in those missiles there were hypersonic systems included and submarine-launched ballistic missiles that also complicated the interception times. The same scenario when IRGC in Iran back then said, we have more that you are not aware of. And the media here in the West said, oh, they just lying and they just bluffing. Till Iran launched the Khorramshahr or Khyber, Khorramshahr-4 and devastated Tel Aviv and Haifa. And wait until tomorrow once again for the missile that they launched inside Tel Aviv and exactly with the coordinates what they targeted. So I'll, I'll, I'll deal with that tomorrow. Now here is what's happening with all this, and I'm trying to provide you here a readout on the geopolitical landscape on both locations, on the Korean Peninsula and on the, on the Persian Gulf. This way you get both sides of the world. The US now is exposed as strategically overstretched. This is why you have the Secretary of Defense saying, oh, the Strait of Hormuz is not closed, and if it is, we're going to send troops. Stop this nonsense. Stop this nonsense. You sent the troops to Afghanistan. You carpet bombed Afghanistan. And what have you achieved? What did we achieve? Nothing. We did the same in Iraq. What did we achieve? Nothing. Last year against the Houthis, what did we achieve? Nothing. What makes us think that we're gonna achieve something against Iran, a mighty power in comparison to the others? And this is where the North Koreans are doing some calculations. The Iranians are seeing it also from a strategic perspective, and the strategic perspective is this: they are not willing to stop the war. Meaning the Iranians. Now the US is working behind closed doors, believe it or not. That's why the US reached out to Russia. Donald Trump is asking Putin to intervene with the Iranians. And again, why would Russia do that? It's because now the idea that It's Iran that has the upper hand. It's Iran that decides when we will stop the war, not the Americans. Because what we are having here in the US, guys, it's already starting regarding the energy. And as a matter of fact, the US threatened Iran to shut down electricity in Iran. Guess what Iran response was? That they will be able to shut down electricity in the entire region. Let that sink in. And once again, I don't believe Iran is bluffing in this case because everything's on the table right now. Everything is on the table. And that is why from the North Korean perspective, look at what the missiles, the, the, uh, the batteries of the THAAD missiles and so forth coming to the Middle East. North Korea is reading this differently. But even those missiles will be a target for Iranian missiles as well. But because here is the big problem that I see in the, in the Korean Peninsula, as I see in the Gulf. When I see in the, in the peninsula, Korean Peninsula, I'm referring to South Korea. And when I see in the Gulf, I'm referring to Qatar in Arab Emirates. Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia. You know what that problem is? Is that in the case of the Korean Peninsula, South Korea cannot— let me repeat this— cannot veto Washington. That tells you right there they have no sovereignty. Because Lee, the, the president of South Korea, uh, public acknowledgement of Seoul's limited influence over American forces deployments has exposed the structural imbalance within the alliance. South Korea relies heavily on the US strategic protection, but it cannot veto Washington's operational decisions regarding American-owned missile defense systems on Korean territory. The same arguments I make regarding the Gulf states. Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt do agree But those Gulf states, they're allowing military installations US. The US will fire from those bases, but those countries cannot say to the US, you can't do that because it's a risk for us, it's a security risk for us. That is exactly when you realize these countries have no sovereignty. And this is for Kim regarding South Korea's example. For Kim, this is a confrontation that the alliance has a seam worth exploring, exploiting it to the extent Iran is doing the same in the, in the, in the Gulf States. Because by Iran targeting the US bases, excuse me guys, what Iran is doing He's telling those countries, listen, your safety depends on the removal of the presence of US bases. Straightforward. Could Iran be creating a wedge between the states and the US? Most likely. But again, that's part of the war. You're going to have to be genius and smart about ways of how you're doing it. And as a matter of fact, I am working on a recorded analysis for you. About how you have now those 4 countries, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar, are looking at legal clauses to withdraw. And I asked— you all remember when I asked Aina Tengen, uh, and with Warraq Ba when we were here, by the way, which, by the way, it was very, very— I enjoyed that conversation. I hope you do too. So, uh, will be asking the same thing. And that's exactly what Iran is doing. Iran will not— Mike, my word on this, as one who's been on the ground, lived in the region for quite— spent a lot of time on the ground, wrote a book about Iran— Iran has no interest whatsoever in either invading countries, neighbors, or causing havoc for the country, for the neighbors, or what have you. But Iran will not step back from defending and do what's right by it in attacking US military installations on those countries. So, and this is where, when you look at now this THAAD missile systems, the right— the radar loss in the case of South Korea cuts deeper than the interceptors because removing TODD radar will render an entire battery useless, making the full system pullout strategically costly. This is what the hardest thing about it. A lot of people do not know. They think they just move them from one location to the other. No, no, there is a lot of moving parts into that, because once the entire battery and radar are pulled out it becomes a major risk to bring them back, both physically and politically. But since South Korea in this case has no sovereignty, which I could say the same about the Gulf states like Qatar, United Arab Emirates, and all that stuff, because if you are allowing once again any types of weapons that come to your country and you have no say into what's going on in your country, then you have no sovereignty. Philippines is another example of this. Australia is another example of this. And within all these dynamics, I am hoping that Taipei is learning something. Yeah, Taiwan. Taiwan is okay because there is an armed package. Here's the thing, an armed package right now in Washington, $11 billion. It's on hold till after Donald Trump comes back from Beijing in his trip between March 28th and the 2nd of April. And I'll do a video for you down the road about that one. So I hope Taiwan is learning something from all this. But here is the hard fact, and the hard fact is this: what is Iran's lesson for Kim's nuclear doctrine? It's a logical thing to ask. The withdrawal reinforces the core lesson North Korea was already drawing from Iran conflict. And that is the lesson North Korea learned is that alarmed by the US bombing of Iran and the removal of the Supreme— late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. By North Korea seeing this, North Korea is likely now to even expand its nuclear program. Add more nuclear warheads. They already have enough, not enough in comparison to the US, of course, but they're going to do more. It's because exactly Iran was struck precisely because it lacked a fully operational nuclear deterrent. And Kim, Kim Jong-un, that is, he sees this now. This is the US missile defenses the very system designed to neutralize his arsenal being cannibalized to fight a war Iran couldn't deter. That's just part of how things work, and you have to understand these dynamics. So let me share once again, I'm going to share a clip with you, and I'll do— there's, uh, it's in Farsi. Pardon me, but I'll do a translation for you as we move forward. Uh, I forget, I'm sorry, I forget the name of this general, but it won't matter. Let's take a listen here and I'll, uh, I'll play it and stop it and do the translation as we go along. This Iranian general is threatening Trump himself. That we do have far-developed capabilities. To fight you for years. We will use all— All what we have in our depots. And in the next phases, we're going to launch far stronger missiles. The thing that we have not disclosed up to now We kept that for the future, and we will use it. Okay, that's what it is. It's just repeating this particular thing. My point is, the media here in the US and Tel Aviv, they are not disclosing. That's why I wanted to do the video for you tomorrow. So please, please make sure to join me tomorrow if you can just carve out time. I'm gonna do it short, to the point, just for you to tell you about this missile. I don't want to spoil it for you, but tomorrow I will do it. Now, here is the bottom line of this as far as North Korea. North Korea will not launch an attack on South Korea. Let me just assure you for this. But it's reading this situation as a strategic windfall, a moment to test probe and accelerate its own programs while the US is pinned down. The US is pinned down right now in the Middle East or West Asia. And Seoul, South Korea, is caught in an uncomfortable public admission that it cannot control the terms of its own defense. This is the same— what's parallel about this is the same argument can be made about Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, and, and Egypt to agree the same argument. They cannot argue, uh, or, or the clauses of their defense pact with the United States. And that is shameful to these countries because they have no sovereignty whatsoever. Liking this video so far? Don't just be a watcher, go ahead and hit the like share, and subscribe button. And don't forget to tap the bell so you will not miss any of my videos or live streams. This way, you will be supporting a channel that stands for the truth and objective reporting. The choice is yours. Thanks for your support. And this is why you have now the Muslim world— excuse me— Muslim world looking at the images that they have been licked out of inside Israel. Once again, you don't see them in Saudi Arabia because the monarchy is controlling. You won't see them in United Arab Emirates. As a matter of fact, United Arab Emirates arrested a British guy. Why? Because he shared the clip about the destruction of a location inside United Arab Emirates. So why are they hiding this? It's the truth. But there are videos leaking out of Israel. Some Israelis themselves are releasing these clips. So the Muslim world, when they see this massive devastation inside Israel— Iran is devastated, make no mistake about it— but also the massive devastation inside Israel that many were thinking, oh, this will never happen to us here inside Israel. And the Muslim world is saying, to the Israelis, now you know what it feels like for what happened in Gaza. And what happened in Gaza, where were these Muslim countries that now they're saying, why Iran is attacking us? Where were you? Where were you when the Palestinians, you know, defenseless people, they have no missiles, they have nothing. Iran does have power and showed The end of Israel is going to come at the end of Iran. That's the way I see it moving forward. They didn't think about it this way. And the U.S. is going to be pulled into this way beyond belief. And that's why you're seeing what you're seeing going on inside Israel that is not disclosed yet. Now, did the strike, did the U.S. strike on Iran harden now North Korea's nuclear resolve? I bet you it did. I bet you it did. It's the idea— you ask any military expert, you ask any geopolitical analyst, the real geopolitical analyst, and they will tell you the answer is unanimous, is yes. However, make no mistake, the picture is so complex than, than simply think of it in terms of defiance or what have you. Because that is the core lesson Kim Jong-un is drawing from the case of Iran. That is the point. One thing is sure: North Korea's nuclear program is far, far more advanced than Iran's. North Korea conducted multiple tests, not just one or two. And it's already had the weapon. There is just the US will not want to admit it, you know, except that for North Korea, the crisis in Iran now reinforces that belief that the only way you deal with the American administrations moving forward is that you tell them, if you ever threaten us, we will, we will use the nukes. That's all you need to say to the Americans. And this is why you have the administrations have sort of formed from when they come to targeting hostile autocrats, they don't have their own powerful arsenal as a protection, meaning a nuclear deterrence. That's what North Korea has. That's what Iran didn't have at the time. That's what led to where it led. And this is why sort of it's going to move forward into this kind of aspects of it. So, and I'm not going to get into the details of North Korea's nuclear weapons and all that stuff. That will be a conversation for some other time. What I can tell you is that the ability for North Korea to launch retaliatory nuclear strikes is there. Because what North Korea is going to do, most likely relocate whatever it has, its concealed locations, which is exactly what Iran is doing. So it is, and of course, expand its air defense systems. And this is where you're going to see where things moving forward. So, so Iran crisis, in my opinion, once again, will reinforce that belief. Not just for North Korea, for any who has the means to do it, that they believe that nuclear arms are the ultimate guarantor of regime survival. And once again, few weeks ago when I did one livestream, I asked the community about the question whether Israel will use the nukes because it's going to become— it's getting to that point. It's survival because if you see the devastation inside Israel, You'll, you'll, you'll, you'll reach the same conclusion as I did. And in this case of North Korea, with Kim, Kim would likely double down on expanding and refining the nuclear and missile capabilities rather than entertaining diplomatic talks with the United States. Look what the US did— targeted Iran in the middle of negotiations. That tells you that's that partner that you can't trust, that partner you can't sit down with, that individual or country or what have you, which now for North Korea is going to intensify this program. But also the US is going to— US now is going to want to show its credibility against the North Koreans. No, they can't. We can't. I'll tell you this straightforward, we can't do that. So I'm gonna get in here into last one before I start sharing the clips with you that I promised I will. Now here is the thing, North Korea as the template Iran will have to study right now. So the cruel irony to me, it's the reality of it. Devastation sometimes, like what we are witnessing now in Iran, is going to have to push the government now to think really and answer the hard questions. Do we go this direction or not? Because this irony here is now shaping Iranian strategic thinking because they are looking at the mirror and thinking in terms of, look what North Korea have done. And look where they are today. Look what we have stopped short of, and we entered into negotiations with the Americans. But at the same time, both regimes, Iran and North Korea, both regimes are drawing the same lesson from the same events, from— except from opposite sides of the experience. That's the bottom line of what I want you to get from this brief analysis here. Because Iran was cautionary tale. North Korea, on the other hand, is the model of survival. And that sent the loud and clear message to the future Iranian leadership, whether it is successor regime, whether it is reformed Islamic Republic, whether it is transitional government, whatever. It will be actually aware that the country, Iran in this case, had to have the nuclear weapon as a deterrence because the strike it suffered, it suffered because it did not have that nuclear deterrence. Because now Iran has lived, even when I argued and I allocated few pages into the nuclear Iran file and so forth. I really talked in detail about this one here, and I always left the door open in case, because Iran, as I said, I argued back then, Iran has lived in years in the threshold space, space of, if you call it, nuclear litany. That's usually what I always looked at it or perceived it. But today, after the most— this military intervention by the US in decades, the question is whether the strikes permanently now ended Iran's nuclear ambitions, which I don't believe what the US is saying. We destroyed the nuclear program. No, you didn't. We didn't. I go with the latter, and the latter is that this is gonna now drive Iran deeper into the bedrock of ensuring the nuclear deterrence. That's what I believe. And the clock is ticking because Iran now have no other option but to go ahead, weaponize whatever it needs to weaponize, and stated that now, should we ever feel threatened, we will use our nuclear deterrence. That's the bottom line to it. That's the way I see it. All right, let me share the clips with you as promised. There's only 2 or 3. And by the way, before I forget, there are some events going on in some other countries, like, for example, you hear that Azerbaijan has been attacked, that Incirlik base has been attacked. Turkey has a missile in Greece, except, you know, even the attacks inside the Middle East, inside those Arab Gulf states. What makes you think it was Iran? What if it was another country, in this case will be Israel, that is the one causing this? We all know how it works, you know. And as a matter of fact, Bahrain has arrested an Indian spy. Indian spies inside the Gulf states. An Indian spy has been arrested inside Iran working for the Mossad. You know, I'll say if you have the, the evidence, then you hang those guys immediately. Yeah, you don't wait till tomorrow. And India, how are you going to trust India anyway? You all remember it was India that gave the coordinates to the US to attack the Iranian mini submarine that killed almost 100 people. There are 87 Iranian bodies now is going to have, uh, to be flown in from Sri Lanka to Iran for proper burial and so forth. It was India that did that. How can you ever trust India? Indian government, that is. Shame on India, because I never trust the government. But anyway, one thing, the, the important about the case of Incirlik base, which is in Turkey, The Incirlik base has about 5,000 US troops. And what does Incirlik also has? Incirlik has about 50 B61 nuclear gravity bombs in the vault. Uh, I had a good friend of mine— I have a good friend of mine, I'm not going to mention the name because of security reasons, who used to be the commander of the Incirlik base. So, and here is the thing, because Incirlik base is critical to Israel's attacks inside Palestine, is also critical to the bombing in Lebanon, in Syria, and even to the attacks on Iran. And if this— Iran fired the missile as a warning shot, that tells you the story right there. Of course, Iran is being careful because Turkey is a NATO member, but Turkey is also a Muslim country. And once again, I find myself going back to the logical argument. Where were those Muslim countries when Gaza was being bombed? To Stone Age. Because this is defenseless. Where were they? So we don't know the answer to that. All right, let me share the first clip. The first clip, uh, you know, uh, the first clip is very, very, very, very— what's the word? Uh, I don't know how to describe it. I can't think of a word for it, but you'll see. It's treachery. War is treachery, as the saying goes. All right, let's take a lesson here. Iran tricked the US and Israel. The United States announced with some sort of fakhre, with pride, with pride. This is what the US did, that it conducted an air attack inside Iran, and everybody saw the images of the missile and the explosions and the sound of the missiles. Then became— then come the major shock. So the planes that the US and Israel announced they targeted, they weren't real planes. Those were 3D printer planes. They were designed on the ground and they look from the satellite as planes. Those are 3D planes. And the missiles attacked these particular planes, 3D planes, for 2 days. And can you imagine the cost of this? But anyway, in 2 days, till they get shocked. Who was shocked? The Americans and the Israelis. That the millions of dollars were lost in those missiles. In an attack that was only on not a real target, but on 3D printers. It's laughable. It is laughable. It tells you the story right there. It's, yeah, millions of dollars being lost. All right, let me share another one. Regarding the, uh, um, as I said, Abraham Lincoln. Now, oh, pardon me, let me close this and go back because I didn't share it yet. And again, I'm going to translate for you on this one, but let's not jump to a conclusion yet till we see. All right, let me copy the link. All right, here we go. This is a break-ins. Let me make this big and we'll take a lesson here and I'll translate as we go along. The IRGC announced that the U.S. aircraft carrier has been attacked, has suffered major impacts with— because of drones and missiles, and it is moving away towards the United States. After it was being targeted. If this is to be true, that's an interesting and an important, uh, break-in, that the aircraft has been attacked and it's now moving away from the region. That's exactly what the IRGC said. If that's true, that is important. He's saying if that is true, then it is a major— it's not homeported in the United States. The location, why is this important? Because first of all, the location of this US aircraft carrier is in Japan. That's usually where it usually is. This is why it's going to have to move. If it is moving, it's because it's going a long distance. So this guy is explaining there are no, there are no escort ships going with it. In Saraja Saleh, which is a region near the Persian Gulf. That's why it's now being forced to go to the open ocean, per se. And if it is hit, it's going to have to go to Singapore or Japan. Second thing is there are the other two aircraft carriers. So if this is true, it would probably— and if this was true, it's going to be an assessment of really what's going to be happening to kind of deal with this. Attacks coming from— Third is that the attacks coming from the south, from the Indian Ocean, those are coming off the carrier. The strikes are coming from the aircraft carrier. That means those will stop, which means those planes will have to either fly over or even the missile will have to cross over either Iraq or Syria, which means in the some part of the Strait of Hormuz there will be a limited capability to impact or influence the IRGC. Because of their attacks on the cargo ships, because nothing crosses through the Strait of Hormuz as of now, by the way. And this is going to put pressure on the Gulf states. I'm going to stop right here because they're going to see that the economic impact will be on the states as well. The bottom line is that I did see and I did read that the aircraft has moved away. That was one of what I need, what I, what I read. Now, this gentleman here mentioned about the flyover Syria and Iraq. Well, what happened in Iraq about 2 days ago? One plane went down, but I did verify the clip, and the clip, one different clip, was fake. The clip was not true, but the plane went down. And I'm gonna share— let me show you this one here because I want you to see with your own. Let me share the screen. The plane did went down, and the Central Command disclosed that information. This is the Central Command. Is saying in Tampa, approximately 2 PM on March 12th, yesterday, a US KC-135— those are refueling aircraft— went down in western Iraq. 4 of 6 crew members on board of the aircraft have been confirmed deceased as rescue efforts continue. The circumstances of the incident are under investigation. However, the loss of the aircraft was not due to hostile fire or friendly fire. The identities of the service members are being withheld until 24 hours after next of kin have been notified. So, and I like this image here of Trump. Everything is fine, of course. Fat liar. Can't believe we have a president that way, but I didn't vote for the guy. I don't vote. I don't vote here. It's— the system is so damn corrupted, can't vote. But anyway, I wanted to share that with you. And I don't remember— I have the picture of the fake image. And remember, I'm sharing this with you to put it in perspective. This is not real right there. It's not real. Why? Because the image— this is of an, uh, an Iranian aircraft carrier. That was— I'm sorry, not an Iranian aircraft carrier. This happened way back, few years ago. This is a few years ago, an old picture. And whoever did this, it's not right. You can't be misleading people that way. Shame on this person, whomever that is. But I wanted to show it to you so you have an idea of what's going on. And that concludes my live stream today. I take this opportunity to remind you once again Larry Johnson will be here on Monday. But I also want to say thank you to some our members of the community who bought me many cups of teas and coffees in support of the channel and my upcoming, uh, trip. So I'm gonna give a shout out to Shirley Wee, uh, someone— it's that someone's screen name is i0807— American Citizen X, and Rocky Chen. Thank you so much for buying me so many cups of teas in support of my upcoming Asia trip. And I hope the community who does, who wants to support this upcoming trip, will, will, will do so. And I'll be very, very grateful to you for that. I also take this opportunity to say thank you to those who bought me coffees, many cups of coffees, in support of the channel and the, the content that I create for you here. You all know the type of intelligence that I— I'm sorry, not intelligence, but the analysis which is derived from some intelligence reporting that is not classified, because it's my, my credibility and my, uh, my observation of the law that is in line here. So you know what I can share and what I can't share, but you all know the type of analysis that I provide you here. It's— I spend a lot of time researching, so your support for the channel will be, will be greatly appreciated. Here is the link, and I'm going to give shout out to, uh, Khadija. Thank you once again, not only for buying me cups of coffees, but by becoming a member, uh, on Buy Me Coffee. So you can become a member on Buy Me Coffee, and I'm so grateful to you for your, uh, support of that. Uh, Mr. Saleh, Thank you for your generosity. I'm not going to disclose the numbers of cups of coffees Mr. Saleh bought me. Your generosity is greatly appreciated in support of my work here on channel, and, and thank you for that. Also, Ian Barry, thank you so much for buying me so many cups of coffees in support of the channel. I also want to give shout out to Mr. Muhammad Morshed. Thank you so much for your, uh, support of my channel. And the last person I'm going to give a shout out to here is Say It Like It Is, an avid supporter of the channel. I think he's with us today here, maybe I didn't see him. And of course, I can't ignore Kevin Baptist, uh, an avid supporter of the channel. I'm very grateful for your support, Kevin. I want you to know I don't take it for granted. None of you guys, none of your support, I take it for granted. Because I have the community, I have you. I don't have sponsors and all. Sponsors, usually if I do, will dictate to me the terms, what say, what I have not say. I'm aware, I am aware of that Israel has reached out to some channels offering them about $10,000 to put things on the good light. And in clear conscience, I can't do that because I will be betraying you, and I can't do that. So it's your support that matters. So thank you so much, Kevin. Uh, F.U., another avid supporter for the channel. And, and if you guys do not know, F.U. has been supporting channel for so long by sort of with, with his super stickers, and I'm— it's very generous with that. Thank you so much. You wrote, Philippines will become the next Ukraine. Ferdinand Marcos, Obama is a CIA proxy. You're absolutely correct. F you. As a matter of fact, I am going to reach out to one of my contacts, uh, Professor Anna Melinda, and she is well wired. She's from Philippines, and I'm gonna be bringing up so to you some updates. There are some updates as we go on, as we speak right now, militarily inside the Philippines. So, and I am aware of those, and I'm gonna do this one. Once again, F you. Thank you so much for your support. Army with Harmony, another avid supporter of the channel. So much appreciation for your support. You wrote, will some citizens of the Gulf States tell Iran where American soldiers are hiding? I won't be surprised. But again, then, you know, because Iran is not a— what Iran wants, it wants to live in peace with its neighbors. The neighbors want that. But as long as the presence of US American bases there, Iran's not gonna— it would be relentless in this. And yeah, as a matter of fact, I was informed that some have been evaced from the region altogether. Not all, but there are some. The US now, they're gonna be tracked, and it's just the way it is. War is horrible. But again, what do you expect a country will do? You go and bomb them, do you want them just to sit and watch? They can't. They're gonna have to respond. What it turns out to be that both US and Israel didn't think through this because we, and I say we, the collective West, have interpreted Iran's restraint as weakness. That's the mistake we made. So unfortunately, now we're paying the price for this. And the last person I want to give a shout out to is José Castellanos. Thank you so much for becoming a member of the channel. I'm very, very grateful for your support. It means a lot to me. So to all of you, I'll say thank you from the bottom of my heart. I look forward to seeing you tomorrow for the specific, uh, uh, live stream that I'm going to do about what happened in Tel Aviv. And on Monday, I will be having here Larry Johnson. I look forward to that conversation. As always, remember, geopolitics impacts your daily life. In more ways than one. Till next time, bye-bye.