The Sudden & Ambiguous Death of Iran’s President in Helicopter Crash: Accident or Sabotage?

All right, hello everybody and welcome to Geopolitical Trends. Very excited to be with you on this Monday, May the 20th. Where time goes, you know, just flies back. The weekend came back and, and went so fast. So hope you had a good weekend, peaceful one, a relaxing one, and so forth, and you are getting up for a new week with some new adventures of sorts. So So, uh, very, very excited to be with you. Uh, we got an interesting topic that I'm going to be addressing for you today. Of course, by now you heard the confirmation about the death of the Iranian president, uh, Ibrahim Raisi, and when his helicopter crashed, uh, in the borders between, uh, Iran and Azerbaijan. So, so this is what I'm going to be talking about, not of course the detail of the accident itself I'm talking about the long-term aspects of it. Once you know, uh, the aspects of the role Ebrahim Raisi is playing and was going to play in the Iranian politics in the long term. So that, that path has changed now, and that's one of the reasons why I wanted to do the show for you. So first, let me say hi to some of you here, guys. As always, Arthur Lincoln, good to see you. Brianna Olivia, hello to you as well. Willie Homan, Taiwan Steel, good to see you guys. Wrong Station, good to see you. Uh, Francis Tango, Farhad Razavi as always, Marcian Dorcier, Truth Seeker, good to see you guys. John Smith as always, and Arisa, good to see you. Yan Hakor, uh, as always, good to see you. Francis Tango, As always, guys. Chanel, here you are. Muslim Revert. So thank you all for being here. AO, or whatever you pronounce it, good to see you guys. Wong Casey, as always, good to see you. And of course, Phil, good to see you here. So, all right guys, let's get into this. I don't have headlines today. I, I only have few questions because, uh, when I came across this yesterday, yes, I was aware of it first hours, believe it or not. And I was even debating, then I said no. Uh, first of all, with something like this, you have to take step back. Uh, uh, let's not jump to conclusions here and there. And this is why I want you guys to keep an open mind. Let's not jump to conclusions. And I'm gonna ask the questions because there are questions that worth asking. And now some say, well, you guys reaching out to— no, no, no, no, no, no. We'll ask the questions and, and, and we just go from there. First of all, uh, was the helicopter sabotaged? You know, who's to say? There were 3 helicopters, by the way. The 2 others made it back to Iran. That one where the president was on didn't. Well, that to me begs the question. And again, why not pointing fingers here? And we won't do that, guys, because something like this, it's worth— it is worth Taking a step back, think it through before we point any fingers whatsoever. Second thing, hypothetically, and this is hypothetical, if it was sabotaged, who will benefit from it? Because it's worth, worth asking. And the third one is the timing of it. Why now? Why all of a sudden? Because this wasn't— nobody saw this coming, you know. Uh, and, and there's just Just part of basic questions we ought to ask here as we, uh, delve— I'm going to delve deeper into, uh, uh, what took place with the Iranian president, uh, the late now, uh, Ibrahim Raisi, who was, by the way, about, uh, 63, if I'm not mistaken. Yeah, that's what it was. So, so what, what happened basically? Well, what happened is just, uh, uh, uh his plane, his helicopter was discovered, by the way, uh, which was few hours after it went down. Uh, of course, there were 3 others, uh, there were 6 people inside the helicopter. It was him, Ibrahim Raisi, the foreign minister, uh, Amir Abdollahian, and the others were the 3, uh, sort of the, uh, staff of the plane. The pilots and the other individuals. There were about 6 of them according to the records here, what it was found. And again, and why was it there to begin with? Well, the question is because— not the question rather, but Ibrahim Raisi was on an official visit, and this visit was to inaugurate this dam here. Now this is the Azerbaijan President Ilham, uh, and the, the picture you look in the background, this is the what's called the Qez or Qiz, uh, uh, uh, uh, Kalasi Dam. That's where you generate electricity from. Uh, and I give a credit to the Reuters for the picture, by the way. So basically he went over for an official visit to inaugurate the dam and he was flying back, with his crew, and that's when the plane went down. So of course it crashed on Sunday as it was reported, uh, uh, but it was— they couldn't get to it because of the dense fog that was in the area and of course the, the severe weather. That's why I'm saying let's not jump to conclusions here, but we're gonna talk openly as we always do, and, and we just go from there. The helicopter, by the way, which is the civilian version of the Vietnam War era, uh, if you're familiar with the, uh, the, uh, military aircrafts, uh, to those who are familiar with the Vietnam War era, UH-1, which is a twin Holi. And now this one is made by, uh, Bell. Bell, there, there's one company here in Dallas that deals with, with, with Bell. Of course, after 1971, uh, these planes were adopted by both the United States and Canada. So, so this is what happened back then, uh, the type of planes. So where did it go down? So it went down, and, and I got a picture for you guys here about the location. It's not that clear, but, uh, it went down near the— about 20 kilometers, or almost 12 miles south of Azerbaijan-Iranian border, on the side of the steep mountains. That's why it was very hard to get to it. As a matter of fact, it was a, it was a Turkish drone that discovered the wreckage because, uh, it had the— it has the heat sensors and it senses heat from the, the, uh because everything burned, basically. Uh, and that's how they discovered the location of it. So it was on the border. So, and this area is very, very, very mountainous. I, I got some pictures here. I remember when I was in Kurdistan, at least from the other side of Iran, from Kurdistan you could look over the border and it was like just, just rugged terrain, rugged mountains. Uh, this is what, what the same aspects of it from the Azerbaijan, uh, Iranian border on the other side. Now becomes the question of, okay, now of course the rest of the, the world sending condolences, which is the right thing to do, of course, uh, from Iraq and, and, and, uh, the Muslim world to Turkey to Russia, all of them. I don't know the US, whether it sends its condolences or not. I, I couldn't find it. I am not gonna look for that. But to me, that's a protocol. Doesn't matter you have disagreement with the country or not, you still do what's right. So, and, uh, like for example, if I am to share with you what Lavrov, uh, the foreign minister of Russia, uh, said He said, and I quote, President Raisi and Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian were, were true and trustworthy friends, end of quote. Yeah, whether you agree or not, it's beside the point. But for us now, suffice it to say, we're going to focus our conversation about the implications of this. Why is this important to understand? Of course, the death of Ebrahim Raisi and the Foreign Minister together, it's going to now put Iran on a different trajectory. And the big question we need to ask, in addition to what we asked earlier, is that will Iran's foreign policy now change? Why is this important, you may ask? It's because once you find out that Ebrahim Raisi was in line to become the Supreme Leader of, uh, uh, or replace Ali Khamenei. Ali Khamenei is the Supreme Leader. In other words, it's through him that every, every foreign policy, every decision has to be approved by. So, and, and Ebrahim Raisi was sort of, uh, uh, groomed for that position. So now it's going to change the direction. Of course, a lot of people said, some might disagree with this in the West, but Again, I just state the fact, uh, that Ibrahim Raisi brought, uh, pragmatism to Iran foreign policy, in addition to, of course, Amir-Abdollahian. Now, some will disagree with this, some will agree, it depends. For us, we're just providing the, the arguments here. And this is again what led me to think as geopolitical analyst is what will be now the, the trajectory or the path for Iran's foreign policy. Because you all remember the tensions between Israel and Iran. This brings forth, uh, one question to mind. And as I, I'm sure you know by now, you guys know that sometimes I send messages through the title of a thumbnail. That's how I convey what I'm thinking about. So you can read between the line if you only take a step back and think about the relationship between Israel and Azerbaijan. Well, again, we're not pointing fingers, we're just putting things out there. Now, Ibrahim Aliyev— I'm sorry, uh, uh, uh, the Ilham Aliyev— I'm not saying he can be trusted. All I'm saying is He's playing both sides, and to the point that I am aware of, some Israel decided to provide him with some advanced weapon systems. So that's what I was aware of way back, and that gives me an idea about the nature of the relationship. This is what I'm saying, hold on to your conclusions as far as, well, the plane, the helicopter was shut down. We can't, we can't say this uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, or we can confirm this one till, uh, there's evidence. I am sure it's gonna be a thorough investigation into all this. Then, then, because to me, the question I will ask, and it's, uh, I'm sure you guys will ask the same question. 3 helicopters, okay? The presidential one and the 2 others, which would be the same level. They're all from Bell, uh, uh, helicopters, right? Now, the pilots of those planes or helicopters will be competent. They go through rigorous training and so forth. How come the two others made it and that one didn't? Because they all were under the same condition, weather conditions. It was fog. Fog wasn't dealing with just the presidential helicopter but with the other two. How come the two others made it and that one didn't? Worth asking. And I'm just saying, think outside the box. Why not pointing fingers here? Uh, uh, investigation will prove that. But again, you have to keep in mind that what Ibrahim Raisi was saying after the consulate, the Iranian consulate, was attacked in Damascus by Israel. Took a stand firm, or a firm stand rather, regarding what Iran will do in case Israel attack or targeted or whatever that is. And Iran retaliated. Now, could that be that Israel saw now a change, which I always said that the status quo in West Asia has changed? This is what Ibrahim Raisi brought to the new landscape in West Asia. And remember, with the deal that Iran reached with Saudi Arabia, it just made it very conclusive that West Asia is shifting a different direction altogether. And all this ought to be put into consideration. And again, wanna jump into conclusions here. But we are just mentioning what ought to be mentioned in terms of understandings. And like I said earlier, uh, Ibrahim Raisi was, was, uh, uh, not perceived, but he was the potential successor, uh, to Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader, uh, currently. And now that he passed away how, how this is going to change. And it will change. To what direction, I don't know. For now, you have the vice president, the first vice president. His name is Mohammad Mokhber. He's gonna— he's already been appointed by Ali Khamenei to take charge, uh, till the whole— the— I think in the Iranian— I remember when I wrote, uh, when I wrote my book about Iran, uh, if I am to remember. Yeah, when I wrote my book about Iran, I, I detailed the structure of, of the government, how it works, and mentioned, uh, at some point to, uh, uh, what will happen, uh, when a president, uh, dies. In, in, in the, in this case now, uh, there is about 50 days it's going to be before the elections that they're going to have to prepare for, and this according to the Constitution of Iran. And they're going to move forward with this. Ali Khamenei, of course, the Supreme Leader, has the final say, but in this case, it is the Constitution, the Iranian Constitution, that's going to have to sort of decide how to proceed. But, uh, because it will have to be a meeting, uh, for the head of the, uh, Parliament and the vice president, and for, for the, uh, elections to take place. And, uh, whoever succeeded, uh, is going to be elected. So, and this is according to, if I recall, uh, Article 131, of the Constitution inside Iran, uh, because that article states that the vice president, the first vice president, assumes the presidency, uh, that, that is Mohammad, uh, Muhabbar, and, uh, till the elections are approved, and, uh, then they go from there. That's basically where it's going to be. Um, now the one thing we need to uh, think about— this is an image, by the way, of the rescue. You can see it's very, very foggy, which to me again makes me just wonder how come the two other helicopters made it but not the presidential one. And, and, and again, I let you guys reach your own conclusion and decisions. The area is mountainous, is a rugged terrain, ain't easy. So, uh, that's when I used to fly through this area sometimes. It's a very, very, very rugged. And I remember one time I was, uh, flying during winter time and everything just covered in snow. And I said to myself, because you have to think in those terms, you know, what will happen if, if the plane goes down? How it's going to be very challenging for rescuers to get there because the terrain is very, very, uh, harsh, if I may use the term. So So the question now we have to think is the idea of— and again, I'm not going to detail much about the helicopter one down on all the way on— no, it's done, it's done. You're going to have to think about what lies ahead, what lies ahead in terms of the conditions that exist right now in the, in West Asia. And all this comes on the eve of what the ICC just issued. And I'm sure you are aware that ICC The International Criminal Court has issued now an arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu and the, uh, what's his name, uh, Gantz, the— I think his name— the defense minister. So becomes the question, will the— would the countries around the world honor what ICC ruling is? What do you guys think? I like to have your input into this. Do you think, in your opinion, You know, countries now will honor if Netanyahu or the defense minister goes to these countries, and they will arrest both the prime minister, Netanyahu, that is, uh, not Netanyahu in this case, and the defense minister. Just let me know your answer in the chat box. I'm gonna take a look, uh, and, and I will, uh, and I will, uh, I just want to get your input. Because I like to have— and to me, this is where I put the big picture. All this happens during a time when, uh, the tensions between Iran and Israel were, were, were ratcheting up, you know, to the point that I start to sense that Iran might move into the direction of getting the bomb. Why not? It's because once it does, trust me, all that hyper, uh, uh, uh, uh, statements by Israel and this and that, I think it's going to stop. It's because, as you know, the having a nukes can act as a deterrence, but also you, the enemy, will have to think twice about engaging a country like that. And this is the— I'll give you just perfect example we have. Can you guys tell me where is the perfect example in East Asia, or in Asia, that is, which country I'm referring to here? Let me see if you guys can type in, that is. Oh, most of you say no for the ICC, whether the countries will arrest Netanyahu. On, um, some, some will agree, some will agree. They will be scared of the US sanctions, and that's to me where it becomes useless. Then what's the purpose of having an ICC altogether? Just dissolve it, the same like UN, just dissolve it. That's the way I look at it. So, all right, uh, let me see which country you guys mentioned. Oh, oh, you got it, you got it. See more nurse, you got it, North Korea. Why do you think we never attacked North Korea or do whatever crazy things we do in other countries? It's because the deterrence aspects of it. The same arguments now that I will be thinking in terms of now the foreign policy of Iran is changing, which means what? That will include the nuclear dossier as part of that change into the foreign policy. Why? It's because if And this is where I put a big if in quotes. If it is proven that the helicopter was shut down and turns out to be Israel, that's a big problem, big serious problem. And this is a big if. I'm not saying that's what it is. In this case, Iran will— of course, its foreign policy is going to change, but it's going to move into that direction even though Way back, at least when I did the research about the book, it was no confirmation to my knowledge at that time that Iran was interested in building a bomb. But again, the conditions back then are different from the conditions today. West Asia has changed completely. The landscape has shifted. And what makes it even more interesting is if you, if you only think— I read some articles right here in the West It says about how Iran now is getting advanced systems from two main countries, Russia and North Korea. Makes you just think, what will Israel be thinking? What will the US be thinking? And that's what I'm saying, we have to think the big picture, as I always say to you guys. And this no different. Yeah, the death of a president, but also remember, governance will have to keep going. Government will have to move forward. They can't stand still. And this is what Ali Khamenei said yesterday. The business of government is going to keep going. Yes, they're going to mourn his death. They're going to have, uh, uh, uh, what you call it? I, I draw a blank on the day, on, on the word., the mourning period where like 2 days or 3 days there will be no activities in the country whatsoever, which is, uh, you know, out of respect for him. But nonetheless, the country has to move forward, and one of them that's going to be now the direction of its foreign policy. So, so, I mean, I saw the images yesterday of the Iranians coming down to the streets to mourn the death of, uh, of Ibrahim Raisi once Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader, confirmed, uh, the death of it. So, and that's why I didn't want to do anything yesterday, because I wanted to wait till I, I know where to check on the accuracy of the information and just go from there. So, and, uh, but again, I find myself thinking in terms of which direction now this is going to go, and I do see something on the horizon that It's not going to bode well for both the US and Israel. That, that's the way I'm, I'm, I'm gonna— I see it going into the direction. It's because to Iran, it's, it's been sort of, uh, uh, being patient long enough. This almost makes me think of China. China also has been patient for a long time. And I think, as a Westerner myself, I think some of us misinterpret this as a sign of weakness. You know, I'm sure you've, you've, you've encountered this in your life, right? When you run to someone and you are trying to be nice to them, just kind, and they misinterpreting your kindness for weakness. So it's just the same thing. So I'm seeing the parallel between the two countries, China and Iran, as far as being so patient. I mean, you admire that, but to a degree. And this is what I'm saying to myself: could this be the turning point for Iran foreign policy? That now they're going to take a firm and harsh stance regarding Israel or the US for that matter. Because so far, at least what I've been thinking turns out to be true. And what was I thinking? That attacking Iran will be a suicide by Israel and by the United States. That's why we didn't do it. That's why the Israelis couldn't do it. Israelis won't be able to do it on their own. Because I look at just one aspect of, of an operation like that— air fueling. Israel doesn't have that capability, which means it has— first of all, I'm not gonna even trust the Arab, the, the, the pathetic, uh, uh, Arab or Muslim countries that, that already are incompetent. They will allow their airspace to be used, but it's not about that. It's the trajectory. It's a long flight to get to Iran from Israel, that is. So they need fueling. Well, where's that fueling? It's going to come from the US. That's only one hurdle, but it's not about that. It is about the retaliation that we do not know what is— what Iran has as far as, uh, weapon systems that has been getting recently from both North Korea and Russia. That is where I see the difference, and that in its already changed the equation, the calculus, the geopolitical calculus, that is for mainly Israel and the US. You know, the other Muslim Arab countries, those are useless anyway. It won't matter. I mean, I look at the like of Qatar and United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Jordan You name it, especially in that part of the world. Kuwait, Bahrain, they are useless in my opinion. And again, I'm not judging the population, I'm talking about the competency in the leadership of the government. But again, if you think what they all have in common, they all running, they all are being run by families that's been in power for over, for generations, that is. And that's, to me, that's like useless anyway, you know. Um, that is one of the aspects we're going to have to think in terms of how Iran is going to now, uh, approach the next phase, because this is going to have to, uh, embark on quickly. Because why? It is in chaos where you take advantage of a country, you know. Now you understand why there's always conflict prior to either a change in a system, in a regime, or, or civil war or whatever. And that chaos, of course, it can be created by a foreign entity, like what we see now in Asia with the Philippines, South China Sea, Taiwan, South Korea, and now even in New Zealand and Australia to a degree. Or what you see in, uh, in, in Africa, except that in Africa now they have woken up, kicking Western, uh, powers out, including the US. I just find out this morning the US is packing and leaving Niger. They don't care for agreements, they don't care. They said thanks but no thanks, we want you out. So, and that's why I'm saying is we have to think in terms of an event like this. Yeah, of course, as sad as it is, doesn't matter. It's a human being. To me, that's how I always look at it, you know. We always have to keep an eye on, uh, the humanity aspects in all of us, you know. Yeah, we might disagree with whomever, a leader, whatever, but that's beside the point. Yeah, it's a tragedy. You know, that person who died has a family, they have kids, has a wife, has— assuming he's married, whatever, you got the idea. So we always have to, you know, keep that compassion and show that compassion for that. But on the other hand, you're going to say to yourself, okay, now that this page has to turn, what lies ahead. And what lies ahead ain't gonna bode well. I just can't see it. Ain't gonna bode well for the US and Israel. The other Arab countries, as I said earlier, they are useless. Those are like, uh, checkers. You move them as you wish. And where you see the major concern is going to be is if Iran makes the decision to move forward with acquiring the nuclear capabilities, because that would become a nail in the coffin for how West Asia used to be dominated by the US, of course, through Israel, by us arming Israel to the teeth. That's where the difference is going to be. Is that going to happen? I don't know, but that's what I'm seeing coming ahead. So this is where we have to think in terms— the, the, uh, a tragic incident like this, yes, it's tragic, but also investigation will be very crucial by independent entities. To get to the bottom of it, how this happened. Once again, just think logically. 3 helicopters in same environment going through the same conditions. 2 of them made it, one of them didn't. You know, that's why I use the term sabotage. Could it be? I don't know, but I am aware of those kind of things that could happen. You can just manipulate whatever, uh, something like that. So I remember, just quick story to share it with you guys, I remember one day it was in Iraq and I had to get into a helicopter, uh, that was some Iraqi pilots, whatever. And of course I was dressed in civilians and, and looks at me and freaked out. He didn't know what to make out of me. And, and of course I didn't speak first. I just waited till he's done. Oh no, no, you don't need to be here. You can't be here. Whatever. Because that's— and I could see why it was the concern that someone could sabotage whatever. I know. I waited till he's done talking or whatever. I said, I say, you done? I said, why don't you just simmer down? You know, I'm here to check on your flight, no more, no less. Oh. It's like, no worries, I don't take it personally, of course. So, so this is where I think the, uh, but again, we have to think on the other aspect of what if Iran decides to go that route of the nukes, what it's going to do to West Asia as a whole. Because remember the, the, the stage where we are right now on a global level We are at a crossroad. We crossing into a different trajectory into the history of the world. We are, and consider yourself, I consider myself lucky to be alive to witness this. We are witnessing the change from a unipolar into a multipolar. Now, throughout history, if you read history, this is why I do history once a while, that sometimes transitions are not peaceful. You know, could it be those one of those moments? I'm keeping an eye open because I wanted to see if this transition, in other words, once the US come to a term with the reality that it's no longer the police of the world, no longer the unipolar, the unipower, the only power, the superpower, whatever term you want to use, is no longer the case. Why? Because the world has shifted to a multipolar order. Multipolar in which cooperation will mean a lot, getting along will mean a lot. So we are in a very, very interesting time in the history of the world. And as I said, consider yourself lucky to be witnessing this. The concern is how it's going to turn on the other side. Will it be a peaceful one, or will it be destructive? And, and I can even see that possibility also. And if we think that we are here, nothing's going to affect us, whatever, it's, it's a mistake. It's a mistake. And this is where that pragmatism of countries like China, like Iran comes in, except that in the West is not perceived as such. So, and this is where I hope some cool heads in the Western world— even though I say it, I don't shy away from it, uh, there are no leaders in the West anymore, incompetent across the board. I'm sure you heard what just been happening now in Australia. And New Zealand for that matter. So, and that's usually the sign for me what's coming into the rest of the West, because you try this on those countries first, then you go into Canada, then you go into UK, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and so forth. Then you bring it over here to the US. So that's, that's how I see where things are headed. And the question we need to ask now is, just to stick, uh, back to the topic here, to answer is what kind of foreign policy Iran is going to embark on after the death of its president and foreign minister. I am aware of the individual who's going to be, uh, taking the, uh I think I wrote his name somewhere, uh, where he's going to be taking, uh, uh, in charge of the, uh, Foreign Ministry. He used to be the head negotiator for the Iran nuclear, uh, program with, uh, uh, nuclear negotiations with the West. Uh, he's the one who's going to be taking over right now as far as the, uh, foreign policy. So, uh, I, I don't know. I don't know what he's thinking as to how he's going to lead, uh, the new country, foreign policy direction, that is. So it will be very, very interesting to see. Uh, for now, the question remains Will Iranians come to terms with the reality as far as, okay, if it turns out that the plane or the helicopter was sabotaged and found out the culprit, how will Iran retaliate? That, that's to me the, the burning question that I will be wondering about right now and, and how it's gonna move forward. So, uh, the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, I'm sure, uh, you know, we think of them just because they have turbans or whatever. They're very wise, very, very wise, and they're gonna have to think in terms of how they're gonna— how they're gonna proceed, basically. So that is where, where the challenge is going to be. And, uh, we'll just see how this— how I may end up. So, so the idea of, uh, with the changes that's coming to West Asia, we all know now that the tensions that's been created, they were by design. Yeah, make no mistake, nothing happens in a vacuum in that part of the world or anywhere else. I mean, just— I'll give you the example of South China Sea. Tell me if that is happening in a vacuum. It is not, to the point that you see in Philippines switching from one end to another extreme. I'll say the same, the changes are coming to West Asia. How we gonna deal with that remains the question. It's because the reason why, as I said, and I need to repeat this for you guys too— I'm sure you got it and you understand— to those who might not be too familiar with how the landscape is, the reason why we couldn't attack Iran, the reason why Israel couldn't attack Iran is because we do not know what type of advanced systems they have, and their retaliation will be within reach every part in West Asia, and it will be severe regarding Israel if Israel the ones that is conducting the operation inside, or now it's outside Iran's territory. That's what is going to be the key moment now. I am sure most of the other countries in the region are watching. They're going to see signs for how it's going to proceed, uh, moving forward. Iran doesn't care what the other Arab or Muslim countries— because it became clear to them now with the Gaza conflict, it became clear to Iran what the Muslim world is all about. You know, yeah, I, I've, I've talked about this before. You know, you can't trust those. You know, they using the term Islam, word Islam, whatever, whatever, and they couldn't even take stand in defending the Palestinians. It tells you the story right there. So, to Iran is going to move forward, but the key is going to be is what type of foreign policy it's going to be embarking on, and that is going to be a defining moment into the future geopolitical landscape of West Asia. Gone that era where the US was the dominant. Gone that era where we were dictating to other countries what to do. You know, I look at it just for what Iraq just did just two days ago, and I posted for you guys in the community For those who might not be familiar, just go back to the community and look for the posting that I just did 4 days ago, 5 days ago, that Iran— I'm sorry, Iraq ditched the US and welcomed China investment deals. That's what— that's why I put in Iran— I mean, uh, the US out, China in. Countries are seeing what's need to be done. Now, the like of Bahrain, the like of Kuwait, the like of United Arab Emirates, those are useless. Just because they have access to money doesn't mean you're worth something. And most of the Muslim world understand that reality. So, so the changes on the landscape, geopolitically speaking, are not to the favor of the West. Collective West, for that matter. Yes, it's headed by the US, but collective West. Because you all look what's going on right now in Europe. You all saw the reception that President Xi get in Hungary and Serbia. You all saw the trips that some Europeans are making to Beijing. Scholz Macron, and soon will be, uh, what's her name, Meloni. And I am sure there will be others coming down the pipe. You look at the inflation in the UK, way down. And the truth is not being told. And this is what I want you to be aware of, guys. Be aware for your own sake. Be aware, because it's very important to your well-being. It's very important to your family. It's very important to how you're going to move forward in a chaotic order, because this is that transition we're going through. We're moving from a unipolar to a multipolar. And like I said before, it can go two ways, either in a peaceful way or in a chaotic way. And of course, for us My country, sad to say. When I say my country, I'm referring to the government, of course. There's somebody who put some stupid comment about me. If I hate America, why I live here? What a stupid comment to begin with. And hate is a negative emotion to begin with. I knew right there the person doesn't know how to express what he's thinking and tells me right there about the level right here. Couldn't see that as a love for my own country, that I am seeing it going the wrong direction, and I'm contributing in my own way to prevent that from happening, but in a peaceful way. And that's what I'm saying, guys. Be aware for your own. Be aware. You're not being selfish, you're just thinking about the welfare of yourself of your family, of your loved ones. It's because this change, when are going to go down peacefully, if I may use the term. And that's the concern. That is the big concern that I have. You know, it's something like this for the, uh, the, the passing or the crash of the presidential copter. It's gonna be now thinking in terms of, okay, What will the country do now? What kind of direction is going to go? No, what if the next policy is a very, very, very, very far the opposite direction? It's almost like saying forget about talking to the West ever. Form an alliance with Russia, China, and North Korea. Bring our military bearing to the fore. Strengthen the petrochemical industry. After all, Iran is an OPEC member, they got plenty. And of the other members, if they want to play along, that's fine. If they don't, move on. Which is the same argument I made way back when the West issued the sanctions about Russia. And what did I say? You know, it's on a record, guys. I don't— it's on the record. I said back then, mark my word, that it will suffice Russia, the Chinese market and Indian market. Of course, at the time I didn't realize the payment that India was paying in rupees. I wasn't aware of that at that time, and I should have. So, and I said, if, if Russia can secure these two markets, it will drop Europe. Who cares for Europe? That's why they went ahead and turned the spigot off, especially with Nord Stream said forget about it. Well, of course, turns out to be a problem for Russia with India because the payment was in rupees. Rupees are not a currency of value that you can use on the global stage. The big markets became the Chinese market. And now I just found out yesterday, and I'm gonna do a video for you soon, Russia just discovered a 550 billion barrel— that's an estimate, remember, they do the study for this— in the Arctic, oil and gas. 550 billion barrel. Just let that sink in. And all it needs, a pipeline from there to China. It would not be a wise thing to do pipeline to India because India needs to sort out its issues domestically first. I'm not saying there are potential there, but it, it's going to take some time. It's going to take some time. So, all right guys, I'm going to take a, a question or two before I'll head out. I got to go work on some other stories for you for the rest of the week. Also prepare, uh, for my upcoming, uh, uh, conversation with Carl Zaha. I didn't forget. And also I will share some pictures with you, uh, when we do the community conversation towards the end of the month. Except that this, uh, the end of this month is going to end on, uh, February 31st, which will be a Friday. Now that Friday I'm going to have, uh, Professor, uh, Yan— Lian Uh, she just emailed me back and she's gonna be on that day. So on that— so I'm gonna do the probably the Conversation Community, uh, the last weekend of this month, which will be either the 25th or the 26th. I'll, I'll communicate with you, I'll let you know. So, uh, and as always, guys, I truly appreciate your continued support. It means a lot to me and I am very, very grateful. Uh, it was someone that, uh, I want to just give a quick shout out here to Antoine Wermer. Uh, thank you so much for your PayPal, uh, donation. Truly, truly appreciate it. Of course, Josiah Gray, thank you very much for your continued support. Casey Wong, as always, uh, or, or TC Quan rather. And many, many of you guys, thank you so much for your continued support. I, I am very grateful and appreciative of that. All right, let me answer a few questions here and I will sign off. Let me see here, uh, and thank you once again for keeping the conversation, uh, here very, very, uh, civil. All right, let me— Jade Wong: Dr. O, when are you planning to leave the US before it's too late before 2029 or 2030. Yeah, you're right. Uh, crash and all that. Just moved out of the US. I have to go back to wrap legal things up and close storage and so forth. I, I don't have a date yet, so I am exploring, uh, teaching opportunities elsewhere around the world for that matter. But of course I have to talk to, uh, my tribe Uh, because it won't be just my own decision. I have to be considerate of others. So, uh, but no, no, no definitive, and it won't be for a long time because by then things will, will change very, very bad, and they are changing already. So, so, and you guys will know once I do a show from wherever I'm gonna be, then you will know that's what I'm at. So, uh, Oh yeah, that's a good idea, J Blue. I'm stacking up on halal MREs for my family. That's, that's good. I'm— that's why I'm going to be sharing with you pictures when we do the community conversation about where the garden is, as far as where I grow my food and all that, because I showed you a picture last month when I just planted the stuff. Now it's growing, so I'm going to share all that with you. All right, let me see. I'm scrolling up, guys, just to see here. Uh, oh, by the way, uh, Japan— did you guys hear what Japan just said? Something about Taiwan, why he needs to back Taiwan. Why is Japan— they have their own issues, and why are they going to far land to be dealing with that? I just don't get it. So I'm, I'm, I'm gonna be looking at that also because, uh, there's a lot of still tensions in the, uh, Okinawa that they, they never want to settle with, with Japan rule, if I may use the term. So then I'm gonna be seeing that one. Uh, Patrick, uh, question: you hear about what is happening in New Caledonia? I did hear something, not— I didn't delve deeper into this. And I do remember it was a— what was it? French president said something, or he's going, planning to go there or something. I, I briefly, I read on it. I, I'm not— till I read the depth of it, then I can answer that one. So For now, I, I don't want to, I don't want to just assume and answer something I am not too familiar with. So, okay, I am still scrolling here just to see, and I'll go down. And, uh, one of you wrote, uh, I enjoy the show. Thank you so much, I truly appreciate it. Speaking of the show, I'm going to share with you, like I always say, I will share, uh, uh, one quote or two from just whomever I pick sometimes. And, and if it is something bad, I'll, I'll read it to you. So it's not all about, uh, rosy stuff. No, assuming that it's worth listening to, because to me, if it's garbage, it's a waste of our energy right here. So, so here is what Clarence Edwards 2866 wrote. I want to agree, I want to agree entirely with you on your assessments of Maloney. These flip-floppers don't seem to realize that people do not know where you stand on issues when you keep changing like a chameleon. The other clown who did something similar, although he did not change his, his, his tune after the fact but beforehand, is Malay. He's referring, uh, Clarence is referring to Javier Malay from Argentina. He too now has a change of heart and wants to meet with the Chinese as well. How ironic that these individuals have names that are close to each other. I wonder if this has anything to do with the lack of common sense. End of quote. Well, that's spot on. It's because inflation in Argentina now hits about 286%, the last number I looked at last week. That's bad, very, very bad. And now Jafé will want to go and meet with Chinese again. Why China should be nice? You know, you can only be nice and patient to a degree. So, uh, next person, I'll share one more here and sign off. Uh, Mary Choa TZ2 SY, uh, she wrote, and I quote, David, keep doing what you are doing. 'Your interactive approach with large dosage of well-researched history, contemporary interpretation of current event, delivered with such enthusiasm, truthfulness, humility, honesty— you are easily the best teacher.' End of quote. Thank you so much, thank you very much. But, uh, also, like I always say, guys, I am here to learn from you as well. It goes both ways. So thank you so much for your support and look forward to seeing you next time. Uh, uh, William N, quickly here, question: view on ICC warrants? Yeah, it's been issued. Whether the country is now gonna, uh, to me, if you are a signatory, then you have to obey. Look what South Africa did when during last year's breaks. You all remember the summer break, right? When it took break, uh, when it took, uh, uh, the, the meeting took place in South Africa, and the Russian president was supposed to go, but ICC issued the warrant for his arrest. He said, I'm not going. Not out of fear, didn't want to put, uh, South Africa in a bad position. So it becomes the question now, will country— and here it is, South Africa said, you know, we are signatory to which we're going to have to obey by this. And Russia made decision by sending the foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, in that case. Yeah, I'll be wondering, uh, whether the countries will honor if they are signatory to arrest Netanyahu and the defense minister. So I don't know till I hear. I don't know if Netanyahu will take a chance of traveling to foreign country now except the US, of course. But remember, there are other countries that they are signatory, including, uh, China, including Russia, but he ain't gonna go there anyway. So, uh, that's the way I, I, I see this one here. All right, guys, I'm gonna sign off here. I hope you find this very informative, and I look forward to seeing you next time. As always, remember, geopolitics impacts your daily life in more ways than one. Till next time, guys. Bye-bye.