The Trap Is Set, the Clock Is Ticking: Inside Iran's Ground War Strategy

Hello everybody and welcome to Geopolitical Trends, where truth matters. Excited to be with you as always. The last time the United States ignored the warning, 58,000 soldiers came home in body bags. Now we have once again military expert people with, with credibility, with expertise with knowledge are saying we are about to make the same deadly mistake, except this time around Iran has already mined the beaches, trained a million fighters, and is waiting for us to land. The clock runs out on April 6th. That's when the deadline is supposed to be. And the big question that beg us to ask is that, are we walking into the most catastrophic trap in American military history? It's a fair question, and that's what I'm going to be addressing for you in this live stream. Events are moving at a faster pace that I can keep up with, but again, that's part of the developments, and you're gonna have to prioritize as to what the community needs to know and understand about what is going on with particular developments in the southern part of Iran, specifically in the Garg Island. So we will talk about this in a second here. So what I'm going to be doing here, I'm going to be sharing with you two clips. I'll do the translation. They are short. I decide to keep those. The second one is long, but I'm only going to keep it short. Then I'll provide you my own analysis about these developments. And conclude with some clips that you need to know and also gives you an idea about what I'm going to be covering next week as far as this developments of the ongoing war between the US, Israel, and Iran. What we have right now, we have people with knowledge, a background in a military, a background in foreign policy, a background, credible background in geopolitical aspect. Are going on the record right here in the US with chilling warnings. Iran is setting a deadly trap for US ground forces, and Washington is about to fall into it. This is exactly what they're saying. So the idea is, and I kind of support that, uh, uh, argument, it's because to land on an island like Kark Island, if we shouldn't be naive to think that Iran didn't think of this scenario years and years, if not decades ago, and they didn't have a strategy and plan in place. It will be naive of us to just assume that Iran has no plan whatsoever, because what we have right now, we have already about 50,000 troops already in the Gulf area, between— spreading between Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, even Jordan, which speaking of Jordan, the one of the Patriot missile systems has been hit on the Jordanian soil by a drone from Iran. Even Jordan is playing a role into all this, which by the way, found out last night they are reaching out to Israel for support. Yeah, Jordan, a Muslim country. So I'll let you think about that one. And when you have about, as I mentioned earlier, 50,000 troops in the Gulf, two warships closing in, and at the same time Iran is mobilizing 1 million fighters, so it becomes the logical question. The question isn't whether a war is coming, an open one on the ground. The question is, does anyone in Washington know how it's going to end. And that is exactly what most of, uh, uh, uh, policymakers, uh, I, I won't even call them policymakers because these people are just doing the bidding for another. We are in a war that ain't our war to begin with. Let's just put this on the record. So let me play the first clip and I'm going to do the translation for you. As I said, it's— I'm going to— it's, it's very, very short. Not too short, but I made sure to cover exactly what you need to know. So let's take a listen to it, please. But first, I want to give credit to Television Al Arabi, or the Arabic TV. That's the clip from their network. All right, let's take a listen, please. More than 1 million Iranian citizens have mobilized for ground combat amidst growing expectations that the United States may launch a ground military operation in southern Iran. This was reported by Iran's Tasnim news agency, citing an informed military source. In a, in a related context, Brigadier General Ali Shahanshahi, commander of the, of the Iranian Army's ground forces, stated in remarks carried by Iran's ISNA news agency that a ground war will prove far more dangerous and costly for what he termed the enemy. He noted that all of the enemy's movements along the borders have been closely monitored, ensuring readiness for every conceivable scenario. This assurances from Iranian military officials regarding preparation for a US ground intervention scenario coincided with leaks to America— to American and Israeli media outlets suggesting that Washington might indeed take such a step. Specifically, the US news site Axios reported, citing American officials and two informed sources that the Department of Defense is currently formulating, uh, military plans to deliver what was described as a knockout blow to Iran. This could potentially involve the deployment of ground forces and the execution of intensive airstrikes. Amidst these developments, Axios sources outlined several potential scenarios, most notably an invasion of Khark Island, or Kharaaj Island, which is rich in oil, or the imposition of a naval blockade upon it. Another scenario involves an invasion of Larak Island, through which Iran maintains its strategic control over the Strait of Hormuz, according to these sources. Furthermore, plans reportedly include seizing control of the Greater Tanab, Lesser Tanab, and Abu Musa Islands, territories currently disputed between Iran and the United Arab Emirates. A distinct scenario involves launching a ground operation specifically aimed at seizing control of Iran's stockpile of enriched Iranian. Uh, let me just say something before I continue here. Uh, I need to, uh, uh, make you aware of what United Arab Emirates is doing right now is they are sort of asking other countries, uh, United Arab Emirates wants to lead. Here is what they want to do. That's how crazy they are. They want to lead a force to open forcefully, to open the Strait of Hormuz. This is what United Arab Emirates is doing. Which makes you ask the question, who is United Arab Emirates is doing this on behalf to? Is it doing it on behalf the GCC, the Gulf Cooperation Council? No. Is it doing it on behalf of the other Muslim countries? No. Is it doing it on behalf of other Arab countries? No. They doing it on behalf of Israel. And if it is the case, why would United Arab Emirates, okay, if they have issues with Iran regarding Abu Musa Island And the Tana Island, why aren't they talking to Iran about this island instead of focusing about the Strait of Hormuz? And that right there tells you the story about who's really doing the bidding for whom. This is exactly for us Americans. Who are we fighting for? We're not fighting for the US, we're fighting for Israel. And that's— I just want you to be aware of this, uh, uh, particular aspect here. Let's continue our conversation here, or listening to the video rather. In the context of Kark Island, Israel's Jerusalem Post, the newspaper cited sources as stating that Washington has accelerated the pace of its troops' developments in the region as part of preparations to execute a potential amphibious landing operation on the island. Concurrently, the US network CNN reported sources privy, privy to the US intelligence reports stated that over recent weeks, Iran has established ambushes and deployed additional troops and air defenses to the islands in preparation for a potential US military operation. According to the Iranian officials, Tehran preparations for the possibility of a major US ground offensive against the country are bolstered by several factors. The most recent of this is the US Department of Defense announcements regarding the imminent arrival of at least 1,000 troops from an airborne division to the region. In addition, there are expectations that thousands of US Marines will arrive as the deadline given by US President Trump to Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz expires. Now, all of this, this is again where you think about in terms of, uh where this is going. The idea is that we are not thinking through this. The, the US is— there is no way, no way. Common sense, you don't have to be a military expert. It, it— common sense suggests that Iran has prepared for this scenario from way back. That just, uh, and if we think that we're gonna just, uh, get in and, and, and control the island We haven't learned anything from Vietnam. We haven't learned anything from Afghanistan. We haven't learned anything from Iraq. You know, it's just common sense. And this is again where you see this problematic of how the US thinks in terms of, uh, flexing the military, uh, uh, muscles, if I may use the term, and thinking, oh, this is gonna do it, this is what's gonna work. Not necessarily, not necessarily. And this is again one of the ideas that we have failed to understand regarding these aspects. So what I'm gonna do here, I'm gonna play another clip. I'm not gonna play it in its entirety, just the first, I think, 5 minutes or so. Then I'll go into my own analysis about this particular aspect and provide you a conclusion for this live stream. So let's take a listen, please. And for this, uh, uh, particular, uh, video here, I give the same credit to, uh, the outlet that translates this one here. So, so let's take a listen, please. The, the IRGC announced that during the 82nd wave of Operation True Promise 4, it targeted Israeli military command centers, industries linked to nuclear infrastructure near the Dead Sea, and US bases and aircraft hangars in the region. The IRGC further stated that its attacks utilizing drones and advanced multi-warhead missiles struck Herat, Shamona, Haifa, areas north and south of Tel Aviv, and central Tel Aviv. These strikes reportedly destroyed a Patriot radar system as well as hangars for reconnaissance aircraft at the Sheikh Isa and Ali As-Salim bases. Furthermore, the Tasnim News Agency quoted an Iranian military source as stating that over 1 million combatants have been mobilized and equipped for a ground battle against the United States. Meanwhile, Iranian media outlets reported hearing the sounds of explosions in the capital Tehran, as air defense systems were activated to intercept hostile targets. Sorry, where is this one? Right there. Separately, Iranian media reported hearing explosions across Greater Tel Aviv and Jerusalem following an Iranian missile attack, with shrapnel reportedly falling in the Modi'in area west of Jerusalem. Earlier, Israeli media has reported that several individuals sustained injuries from falling shrapnel following Iranian missile attack in various regions across Israel. For its, for its part, the Israeli military announced the destruction of weapons production sites in Tehran and other areas in central Iran, noting that more than 60 fighter jets participated in these strikes over the past 24 hours. Additionally, The Israeli Defense Minister Gallant stated that the military had killed the commander of the IRGC Guard Naval Forces. Uh, before I'll do this, I want just to— this interview with this expert inside Iran provides really— I listened to the entire clip, it's long, but, uh, it's very important to understand the dynamics of how they are framing, meaning this expert, and, and providing the Iranian perspective regarding this development. That is the reason why I wanted to play this part for you. So let's take a listen, please. First of all, he, uh, the anchor said, to discuss these developments, we are joined live from Tehran by strategic expert Saleh Al-Kazwini. How do you interpret the Iranian responses to the US demands, specifically the 15 Points document that Washington claimed to have conveyed to the Iranian side via Pakistan? In the name of God, the most gracious, the most merciful. Greeting to you, my dear brother and colleague, Mr. Kamal. And to all the viewers. Undoubtedly, some of these provisions are favorable to Iran. Indeed, I believe Iran has long advocated for precisely these points, particularly the complete lifting of sanctions against the country, as well as the assurance that the trigger mechanism will not be reactivated. Uh, trigger mechanism is in reference to, uh, reimposition of sanctions. Basically, that's what it's saying. However, there are other provisions that I do not believe Iran will agree to, foremost among them being the requirements to completely abandon its nuclear program. Issues such as the nuclear file, uranium enrichment, uranium enrichment, or similar matters, or even the severing of Iran's ties with its allies and friends, are among the most prominent points that I believe Iran would categorically reject. An agreement might conceivably be reached regarding uranium enrichment to 60% or higher. However, concerning the broader Iranian nuclear program, specifically its closure or dismantling, I consider it highly unlikely that Iran will consent to such terms. The question was, uh, uh, to what extent does this appear to be state of readiness, uh, to be a state of readiness within Iran and an expectation regarding potential ground operations, particularly in the southern regions near the Strait of Hormuz or on Kharg Island. Given President Trump's statements from just a short while ago, roughly 2 hours back, or perhaps longer, it does not appear that he is intent on pursuing such a course of action. I am not sure if you caught those remarks in which he essentially said, referring to the Europeans, NATO, and others, this is what Trump said: "Come, let us participate together in an operation to reopen the Straits." End of quote. However, they backed out, they refused. Consequently, he implied, quote, it makes no difference to us whether the strait remains closed or open, as we are currently producing oil in quantities equal to those of Saudi Arabia or— and Russia, end of quote. Uh, what does this signif— signify? The question, uh, the answer: whether the man is being truthful, meaning Trump, or conversely, if he is being truthful and we have reasons to doubt his veracity, and if he is indeed being honest and it's not merely attempting to mislead the Iranians with these statements. It suggests that he, meaning Trump, has in effect abandoned the idea. Furthermore, there appears to be significant rift among American politicians. Just yesterday, Congress convened with senior officials from the Pentagon and US intelligence agencies to deliberate, uh, to deliberate, uh, uh, on this very issue. It seems there is substantial disagreement even among Republicans who do not appear to be in accord regarding this matter. So I'm gonna stop right here for this because it's long, but I just want to give you an idea of where he touches on some key points, which by the way, I intend to address for you, uh, uh, the beginning of next week. I just confirm a few things. One of them has to do with Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia now is pushing for the United States to keep going regarding the war. Why is this, you may ask? Because there is a summit, there is a meeting right now in Florida, an investment meeting from Trump with some Saudi entities. So you can just put the two and two together and figure out why the Saudis are pushing for this. But the Saudis are also concerned because there are other issues domestically that they are now so concerned about, and I will disclose or read to you an excerpt from my book that I wrote about Saudis back then, which is now seems to be coming to the surface. So this is exactly where I wanted to highlight to you this aspect of, uh, of this development. If the truth matters to you, hit like, subscribe, and tap that bell. No spin, no agenda. Just the stories they don't want you to know. So don't watch from the sideline. Be part of the movement. Your support keeps the truth alive. Thank you very much. Indeed. Uh, next week, as I said, I'm gonna be, uh, sharing with you an interview that was conducted with a nuclear physicist. His name is Dr. Hadi Oualaalou. Very— I'm, I'm aware of his background. Usually, as I said, you, when you, when you work in Washington, you tend to really keep an eye on who's who around the world. And, uh, but he brought up some really, really interesting aspect, especially when it comes down to the land invasion blueprint, which means what? Iran has already put a plan in place regarding this scenario. And this is exactly where this nuclear scientist, because he was working on a nuclear program, you know, he reveals the true location of the nuclear bomb. That's to me was wow. And this is why you see now there's a conversation inside Tehran. And by the way, I am going to be reaching out to Professor Morandi, Muhammad Morandi, and extend him an invitation next week, and I'm gonna address this particular topic with him. We're talking about the 200, to my knowledge, based on confirmed sources, 200 kilometers. Okay, that's where the secret location of this particular deterrents. I'm gonna just use the term deterrents for now. 200 kilometers from, uh, uh, the, the, uh, where the trap Iran has placed regarding the American troops, where they're going to be. That's the— we call them, it's known in, in this conver— uh, conversation as the Southern Trap. That is. So next week I'm going to be doing, uh, this particular, uh, detail, uh, about this one here. Now let me provide my own insights about what is going on with this Iran's mobilization, because you need to understand about it. As I mentioned, Iran has announced the mobilization of 1 million fighters because, once again, I fall back to the experience in Fallujah in Iraq. We couldn't do nothing about it. That shows you guerrilla warfare, we're not good at. That's one. And second, when you have a people that are willing to die for their own cause, nothing is going to intimidate them. Nothing's going to scare them. And you think we have learned something from Vietnam? And I'm going to bring the Vietnam case as a parallel to this, so make sure to stay with me here till the end. And this is again what it's been described as, a suicidal US ground war on Iranian soil. Tehran is particularly focused on defending Kharaj Island, or Garg Island, where nearly 90% of Iran's oil exports, uh, flow from. And it makes common sense. And this is why, even been disclosed by Iranian, uh, media sources, and this according to military sources within the IRGC, here's what they state, and I'm paraphrasing here, that in addition to organizing this 1 million, uh, uh, uh, uh, people for a ground war. Recruitment centers for the Basij militias, the IRGC, the regular army have all been flooded with requests from young Iranians to enlist, to enlist in recent days. This is what's been disclosed, and this is not from the Iranian news, uh, like, like an article inside Iran. This was— I found this one from outside Iran, and this might surprise you. It was a magazine in South Korea. Just think about it. Why South Korea is important to Iran? Because South Korea imports most of its oil from Iran. Makes me just wonder, will this close this one? Now the question becomes, is this a trap? As a geopolitical analyst, I find myself have to ask that question, and my answer is yes. Straightforward, credibly so. And again, this is not just my word, this is the word of credible individuals with substantive expertise in this background. They argue, for example, I looked, uh, one, a retired Colonel, uh, Daniel Davis, and I'm, I'm gonna share the quote with you. Here's what he stated. And I quote, Iran is setting a deadly trap for US ground forces in the Strait of Hormuz and is waiting for Washington to fall into it. End of quote. Once again, this one wasn't disclosed by the Washington Post or the New York Times. This was disclosed by Pravda here in the US. Even the intelligence agencies, the intelligence community some sort of— it's backing this argument, meaning supporting this, the, the, uh, the, the premise of this particular argument. Iran has been laying traps and moving military personnel and air defenses to Hagh Island in recent weeks to prepare for possible US operations. They knew that this is going to be coming, and this is according also to US intelligence sources. They're not going to go on the record, of course, because a lot of people will not— I don't know, I can understand matters of intelligence, you can't because you'll be breaking the law. But in the matter of being as an advisor to Donald Trump, whatever, those people are so weak, they're useless. They couldn't tell him what he needs to hear. They told him what he wants to hear. No, and this is why when you look at Khark Island, and I have a picture for you here, I'm gonna share it with you. What you're looking here is those are for the oil, uh, that's where they keep the oil because for the transport and so forth. Here is the island. The island is this, is this tiny dot right there. That's where the island is. This is not the entire— is it? That's Bab el-Mandeb. Bab el-Mandeb, which by the way, and I'm gonna touch on this briefly because I'm gonna do live for you, a live stream about it soon, but I need to tell you now that the Ansarullah Houthis have announced that they're gonna shut down Bab el-Mandeb. Just think about what it's gonna do right now. But going back to Khark Island, or Gharq Island, that is, uh, this is where you are looking at the island has been prepped with layers of defenses that including shoulder fire surface-to-air missiles. This is— are the MANPADS. And Iran, believe it or not, has been laying anti-personnel and anti-armor mines on shorelines where US troops will land. I mean, to me, uh, for the president to be sending those young soldiers to their death You know, send your, your, your kid. And those members of Congress, send your, your, your, your children to fight. And for the one like Lindsey Graham, that he will die for Israel, why don't you go and fight over there? If you really want to die for Israel, you go and fight. It just shows you, it shows you what is going on with this aspect here. And once again, uh, for the dark island, uh, just for you to have an understanding, it It's a vital Iranian oil terminal and a military base located approximately 20 to 30 kilometers, between 15 and 20 miles, off the Iranian coast in the northern Persian Gulf. And the whole area, the whole area is about 20 kilometers square meters, rocky island near Bushehr Province. It acts as a primary export hub for 90 to 94% of Iran's crude oil, featuring extensive pipeline storage facilities. That's what you are looking there, storage facilities, and deep water berth for super tankers. That is exactly why, uh, it's important. And, uh, we know what we're getting into here. So even Trump's own allies question whether seizing the island is even worth it. And the reason for why they bringing this up, because taking control of Garg Island will not resolve the core problem. Because the core problem is that no matter what, Iran will always have a stronghold on the Strait of Hormuz and global energy market. That is the bottom line. This is why United Arab Emirates is saying, well, we're gonna ask all the countries to come, uh, open the Strait of Hormuz forcefully. Like I said earlier, why don't you talk to Iran about Abu Musa Island? If since there is a territorial dispute of it, why would you concern yourself with the Strait of Hormuz? Because simple as that, United Arab Emirates is not doing this for itself or the GCC or the Arab for the Muslim countries is doing it for Israel. Simple as that. And this is where you think about the military buildup. Now we're looking at two US Navy amphibious assault ships. You're looking at the USS Tripoli, Tripoli, which is— and also the USS, uh, uh, Boxer, which is that small type of aircraft carriers, are currently heading towards the region. And of course you add the thousands of soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division are on route. So what we're looking at approximately, because US has already about 50,000 soldiers deployed in the Gulf. And where are they in the Gulf? They are in the countries where Iran has been targeting US bases. That is where the problem for those countries. And all Iran is saying, you know, ask the US to leave, we won't target those locations. Because those bases, those countries have no sovereignty over those. So basically, when you look at the combined deployments from the US perspective, the Marine Expeditionary Units and Army forces, you'll be looking at about between, give or take, 6,000 to 8,000 US ground troops. And those are already in close proximity to Iran. Now Iran is mobilizing 1 million people. Yeah, the math, just, just think about, think about what happened in Iraq, in Fallujah specifically. Even though Trump has said, oh, I don't plan on having boots on the ground, while at the same time saying, oh, I don't rule that out. Which is which, Mr. President? You seem to contradict yourself. You don't know what you're saying. And that also brings to forth the mental state of Mr. Trump. Is he thinking logically and pragmatically? And when you hear statements like this, oh, I'm not going to put the boots on the ground. Oh, I don't rule that out. That gives you an idea right there. About the level of the judgment, if there is any judgment exists for such an individual. On the other hand, you have now the diplomatic side that is closed. And as a matter of fact, members of the parliament inside Iran today, this morning I found out, they are already talking about, you know what, we need to pull out of the NPT. Remember the Non-Proliferation Treaty that Iran signed. And you all remember about 4 or 6 months ago, I've been arguing this point by saying Iran can do all whatever till they pull out of the NPT, it's not going to be taken seriously. Now there is a conversation inside Iran's parliament, and I hope to get Professor Mohammad Morandi next week and I will address with him this particular aspect. But at the same time, should this move forward, which I foresee that the possibility of it, that is only the last step to moving forward with the, the nuclear device. And once Iran declares itself as a nuclear power, game is over for Israel and the US for that matter, and the Gulf States and whatever else. So because here's, here's the harsh truth that I need you to know about, uh, those Muslim countries in the Gulf. Do you know that behind the scenes, the Gulf states are privately urging Trump to put troops on the ground? Especially United Arab Emirates. Qatar, give or take. Uh, Bahrain, give or take. But Bahrain also has the Fifth Fleet, so it's no exception. And at the same time, they, meaning those Gulf states, to be fair, they are also warning Trump about the high American casualties, let alone the strong Iranian response against the Gulf states. This is why, and I'm gonna share, I think I'm next week, not now, next week I think I'm gonna be talking about the retaliation that Iran has just announced for Israel attacking Iran's nuclear power plants. So the bottom line to all this, what I need you to understand, 'cause I don't wanna overwhelm information here because there's so much to cover here, but I wanna keep it concise and clear. For you. The bottom line is this: the situation, in my opinion, has many hallmarks of a deliberate strategy by Iran to draw in the US into costly urban and island warfare. That is my assumption. That is my conclusion to this. Because again, I fall back to what took place in Fallujah. I fall back to what took place in Afghanistan. And it was these similar tactics that has drained the American— because we're not trained for this. Let me just say it's straightforward. And the other reason is that the terrain, especially now regarding the Iran front, the terrain that historically favors defenders in this case. Yeah, the question whether the US takes the bait on decisions likely to be made in the coming days because we have only till April 6th. That's when we're gonna find out. And like I mentioned earlier, I'm gonna draw for you a comparison, the striking parallel to Vietnam, what's going on, what's going to be happening should this move forward, you know. And the first thing that comes to mind, what is it? There is no clear definition of victory. The US will do this and still will not be able to say we come out of this victorious, because you can fake a victory. Remember the last time Donald Trump faked a deal? What was Iran's response? They fired at Tel Aviv. It almost feels like this is how Iran is negotiating now, because once again Washington is firing fighting a powerful regional player here. And he fighting this powerful regional player without a clear objective, without a strategy. No, not let alone without an exit strategy to begin with. And there is no even defined theory of victory. What are you gonna be saying to lying to American people? Even though American people are oblivious, they are ignorant. Sorry to say this about my fellow citizens. I'm not generalizing, but I'm stating the facts, because voting for somebody like Trump is what got us into this to begin with. And by the way, the other party is no better. They both corrupted. Anyway, the bottom line is what you're looking at, you're looking at the result of this trap that the US is walking into is that the result is a different kind of guacamire, but a guacamire nonetheless, similar to what took place in Vietnam. Now, there are those who will say, they argue, oh no, Dr. O, this can't be. No, it can. It can. Because here's what I'm going to tell you. I'm going to tell you the shifting justifications for the war by, by Donald Trump, which tells you right there the guy doesn't know. He doesn't know what he wants. But also it tells you who is in charge of him. It's not himself. Don't, don't fall for that bravado of, of, uh, of, uh, uh, being loud and all. It's, it's just a facade. They are the hidden hand behind the scenes that dictate to him what to do and not to do. And he had to oblige by those orders. I am convinced 1,000% that the Mossad has something very damning about Donald Trump. That's the bottom line to it for me. So here's the thing: Trump offered the justification that Iran had been preparing to strike first, which is a lie. Iran was never threatening the US, was never threatening the US bases in the Middle East. Well, it did not, which is a contradiction that every credible analyst with credibility, with expertise, with the knowledge flag this as an evidence of the administration that it has no coherent strategic objectives. Because once again, I'm using history. I'm simplifying this for you, my dear community. I'm simplifying it by providing you historical, uh, evidence. This, this setting echoes, in my opinion, the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution. Key moments in Vietnam had been based on faulty claims If not outright lies. You all remember what LBJ, who is from my state here, what he did. Because this is revealing how far presidents are willing, even back then in Vietnam and now, willing to go in betraying public trust. Trump is no different. Any American president is no different. Give or take, I'll take Jimmy Carter to a degree. Here is the other aspect, is the asymmetric warfare, the weaker side's advantage. Remember that the terrain, remember the strategy that Iranian had planned for decades ago. And like I mentioned earlier, the retired colonel because he was— it was a famous anecdote from a Vietnam analysis. And here is what happened. The North Vietnamese colonel who said, and I quote here, back then, "We never lost, we never lost a battle," end of quote, to which his counterpart replied, quote, "That may be true, but it is also irrelevant, end of quote. Think about it. The Iran government or Iran entity as a whole similarly has a grip on the country that doesn't appear to be affected by US tactical successes and all that stuff. Yeah, you're seeing this B-52 and all this movements of the US. No, no, it's not. And the other aspects that I have learned from way back, for the last 30 years or so— and again, remember, I've been in certain conflict zones: Afghanistan era, uh, part of Syria. You, you're looking at a certain Saudi Arabia and others in Africa and so forth. The one thing that I've always thought of, or thought about rather, is that overconfidence, overconfidence breeds by easy wins. That is exactly what Donald Trump fall into. And again, using history as my guide and as a proof evidence, you all remember the statements coming out of Washington following the US intervention in Venezuela in January 2026? Because what happened with that? It produced rapid results with minimal blowback. And that in itself appeared to validate Donald Trump's faith in coercive actions. Oh, I can do now this with any country. Yeah. But here is the thing you need to learn from history. Is that clean victories are dangerous teachers. Trump didn't learn from this. They inflate overconfidence precisely when skepticism is most needed. And that is exactly where we are right now. And I'm not going to even talk about the, the members of the political elites here in Congress— a corrupted and dysfunctional Congress. The gap is deeply troubling. We have members of Congress that's supposed to work for the interest of the American people. The next question that I ought to ask, part of this very brief analysis here, where Iran is actually worse than Vietnam. We have to think about it. Because remember the assassination of the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the late Ali Khamenei, the targeting of the strategic assets in Iran. What is the consequences of all that? Because it has propelled Iran into an endless war now, posturing. This is why I said, uh, 3 videos ago when I did, uh, 3, a week ago when I mentioned about Iran is moving from a defensive posturing into offensive posturing. That's my— what I was referring to here. Iran now is participating in what I called nothing-to-lose psychology. That's it. You can't intimidate them. You can't scare them. You can't— they are in it for— till whatever. And that is what's rendering Iran now fearless. And transforming it into a force more dangerous than Vietnam ever was. And once again, if we only learned from a history about the Persian Empire. Iran has also a weapon called Ho Chi Minh. Remember who Ho Chi Minh was? In Vietnam or to Vietnam. And Iran has that weapon that it never had, Ho Chi Minh. And you know what it is? Iran's strategic— Iran's geographic possession and the possession over the critical energy infrastructure. That in itself gives Iran a cohesive— yeah, coercive instruments that Vietnam never possessed. Because why? Iran is within strike of a finger, capable of triggering a global recession without firing a single additional missile. This is again the short-sightedness of Donald Trump. But Donald Trump, It's the whole administration, but he's the president, so the blame falls on him. I don't care about others, but also it tells you who— he's not in charge. He is not in charge. That is again where the difference is. Now briefly, once again, what is the scale of what a ground war will look like? And what it will even mean. Think about it. Any serious American invasion of Iran will likely rival or exceed the scale of Vietnam or even the 1991 Gulf War, because first of all, it's going to make it the largest US military undertaking since World War II. And looking at the, the, the fiasco of the invasion of Iraq in 2003 as a comparison, look at the Iran population size. And even if we are to go with that assumption, you're going to need a minimum of 1 point, uh, about 1.8 million troops. Can we? I don't think so. Iran is going to wait. And I just want to provide you this brief comparison or parallel to Vietnam. The bottom line to it that I need you to get out of this is that the Vietnam comparison might not be perfect because there are no jungles, no Cold War proxy dynamics, and US air power is far more precise today than it was back then. It's a fact, it's reality. But what you need to consider is that the strategic DNA is hauntedly similar between that of Vietnam and that of Iran. An undeclared war, undefined victory conditions, adversary— Iran in this case— that is willing to absorb the punishment indefinitely, and a domestic political clock that is ticking against Washington. And this is again, invasion of Iran will entrap Washington in a quagmire similar to that of Vietnam. If we think we're going to just land and take over, no, because it's going to eventually end up at the US defeat. Whether history repeats itself or not, on also whether Trump chooses this escalation or an off-ramp exits before April 6th, remain to be seen. That's the way I see it. And that's again, uh, uh, I'm gonna be doing, as I said, I am trying to confirm some info and so forth. Uh, what I would be talking about is Iran vows a devastating response to Iran's attack targeting its nuclear facility, which just happened yesterday. That's why I'm, I'm keeping up trying to provide you what is of importance for you to know. I don't want to overwhelm you with information. Second thing, I'm going to also be addressing that, uh, the IRGC announced the downing, and I'm going to look at the clips and verify information, the downing of two US F-16s and an MQ Reaper. And the one that I'm going to do separately, it has to do with the announcement yesterday of the spokesperson for the Ansarullah military, Yemen military, Sareer, that the Houthis or Ansarullah officially entered the war. As a matter of fact, they are launching a barrage of missiles targeting Tel Aviv and also have also threatened to shut down Bab el-Mandeb. And they're going to strike US bases in the region. Once again, it's those countries. As a matter of fact, Sareh, when I listened to the statements in Arabic, used some specific words specifically towards the Saudis. Why? Because the Saudis behind the scenes now is seeing that the oil price is going up, the prices is good for them, but how they're going to get the oil out anyway? So the Saudis playing both sides. But as far as the, uh, what the Houthis is going to be doing soon, it's going to make this look like, uh, a child play. This is the attack by the Iranian missile that targeted Ben Gurion last, and I did the video for you. I forgot to show you the picture, I kept it. Now Houthis, Ansarullah, are already firing missiles in Tel Aviv. So I'm going to look over the weekend for the— tonight, today, and tomorrow for those key pictures and so forth and share them with you. So here's my conclusion. Here is where we stand. The bottom line is that the US finds itself now in one of the most dangerous crossroads in its military history. Beside what happened back in Vietnam or Iraq or Afghanistan. Iran has spent months— I'm talking months— preparing for this specific scenario, preparing for a ground war trap, mining the beaches, fortifying Kharkiv Island, mobilizing over 1 million fighters. And of course, closing the world's most critical chokepoint, mainly to the US, Israel, and any other complicit in the war. Showing all this. And as a matter of fact, I'm going to— I think I have a clip. Yes, I do have a clip I'm going to share with you about a Pakistani tanker that was inflamed by a drone by Iran. And I'll tell you why in a second here. At the same time, Washington has now deployed 50,000 troops, 2 amphibious assault ships, and the 82nd Airborne without— here is the key— without clear victory conditions, without an exit strategy, without an answer to the single most fundamental question of the year. How does it plan to end this war? And that in itself leads us— how does it end? Because it's logical question to ask. The Vietnam parallel isn't just, uh, poetic, if I may use the term. I just want to provide you something of evidence, especially to those who are long enough here, you're old enough to know or remember the younger generation might not know much about it. But at the same time, is the strategic warning that is— was written in blood. That is the reason why I wanted to bring this. Nobody wants to talk about a horrible, uh, uh, uh, part of history, but sometimes we're gonna have to bring the uncomfortable, place it on the table for conversation. Yeah. Even though by some accounts the US has won every major battle in Vietnam and still lost the war. Why? It's because the enemy— it's not enemy in this case— Vietnam was fighting for survival on their own soil, but America and the US was fighting for an abstraction. Thousands of miles away from home. Sound familiar? So Iran today is maybe that same adversary that was deeply wounded, cornered, and dangerous precisely because they have nothing left to lose. Yeah, a nation that is so proud of its history and will never— as long as I'm alive, I don't think it will ever happen— will never ever surrender. It will bleed till America leaves. That's the way I see it. So I'll be keeping an eye open. On this April 6th deadline. Because April 6th ain't just another day on the calendar, by the way. It may be the moment history records. This is where history is gonna record as the fork, yeah, the split in the road, the day America either found a diplomatic off-ramp or stepped into the most costly, most consequential, and yes, most avoidable quagmire since the jungles in Southeast Asia. That is the way I see it. Uh, let me play a clip for you as promised quickly here, uh, because I want you to see what happened with the Pakistani tanker. There is a reason to why I'm gonna share this one. Hold on a second here. And thank you for staying all the way to the end with me here. I truly, truly appreciate you. By the way, I saw some of you from Spain, some of you from South Africa, some of you from Barbados. So good to see you here. All right, let me just play this one here. Hold on, let me All right, take a look. So what you're looking at, you're looking at, at the, uh, the Pakistani flag. Oil tanker was destroyed by Iranian missiles. Few hours earlier while crossing the Strait of Hormuz. A few hours earlier, that wasn't from yesterday, that was from the day before. Pakistan, because here's the thing, and I'm going to confirm this one. I have my contacts in Islamabad and I'm going to find out. Pakistan has earlier betrayed Iran by rerouting Iranian oil to the US. This is a reply by Iran to Pakistan, and I'm, I'm very— it's perplexing if it is the case, and I'm gonna find out. The second one is I want to show you quickly here. It has to do with Hezbollah. What is Hezbollah is doing to Israel in, uh, in the southern part? Take a look here. And again, uh, I'm gonna, I'm gonna check on this. I just want to— so sorry, I can't play the sound here, but I'm gonna mute it. This is a— Hezbollah ambushed multiple Israeli tanks and killed 15 soldiers in Lebanese farmland. Okay, I just want to do this quickly here. So the idea that Hezbollah is weak, it is not. Here is, uh, and I'm gonna— I don't want to get ahead of myself, uh, about, uh, Ansarullah because I'll do a specific video for you about that one. Is what I said back then. Remember, Israel will not be able to sustain 3 fronts, and I did say this on the record. One from Hezbollah, at the same time from the Houthis, at the same time from Iran. And this is exactly what we're gonna be witnessing soon as Houthis have announced, uh, they are entering the war. The last clip I want to share with you is about MBS, Muhammad bin Salman. Why is this important? Because I'm going to share a clip with you from my book and put it in perspective. What it says right there, it says, basically what MBS is saying is that what I fear from the confrontation between the Saudis and the American— on one hand, I'm sorry, between the Israelis between Israel, US from one end and Iran on the other, is that the continuation of this conflict could shake the foundation inside the Saudi society, and it will implant fear among people, and some of them will start to doubt our ability to protect the security and the safety of the country. That is what, uh, what basically MBS was saying. But with this, I want to share, uh, quickly my excerpt from my book that I wrote about Saudi Arabia and brought up this point back then. Exactly, here is what I wrote back then: simultaneously, Saudi Arabia's domestic tensions include high unemployment, continuing restrictions against Saudi women, and discrimination against its Shia minority. The KSA's ongoing relegation to second-class subjects of Shia in its eastern province creates ill will. Add to that a rebellion of unemployed, disgruntled Saudi youth in Riyadh, Jeddah, Dammam, or Qatif, and one may wake up to a country in chaos. Further, the ongoing discontent of its youth, in addition to issues in the Shia Eastern Province of Ash-Sharqiyah, could quickly cause things to take a different turn, leading to major demonstrations that could destabilize the monarchy. Could this scenario be, be what is fueling terrorist recruitment in Saudis? That was the question I asked back then. Anyway, I came to an end here for this one here. I'm gonna be, as I said, I am working on different stories, uh, especially the, the, uh, Iran's, uh, threat to retaliate following what Israel did. And hopefully, uh, Professor Muhammad Morandi will be here next week, and I'll address this with him, uh, should, should they decide to show up here. So I'll take this opportunity to say thank you to 08 for buying me, uh, cups of teas in support of my upcoming Asia trip. Thank you so much for that. And also I want to thank Mr. M. Morshed, Muhammad Morshed. Thanks for becoming a new member on Buy Me Coffee and for your support. And remember to join me and other members for when I do the live Q&A on April 3rd at 19:00. I will be doing, that for the community. Remember tomorrow to be on a lookout for the video I'm going to be releasing. It's a recorded analysis that I did regarding Iran, US. Be on a lookout for that at 12:30. I will be releasing that one. And I want to say thank you to Army with Harmony once again for your continued support for the channel. I'm very grateful. Question: Do you think Iraq will take back Kuwait? No, it won't happen. It's not going to happen because it's more of a— it's not going to happen. It's not going to happen. Iran tried back in 1991, moved on, and that's it. What it's going to be now to look for is whether US military bases will leave the Gulf. That is what we're going to be looking for. In the next coming, uh, uh, in, in the coming weeks, months, maybe a year or so. So I look forward to that. Hope you enjoyed this, and I look forward to seeing you, uh, next time. As always, remember, geopolitics impact your daily life in more ways than one. See you guys, bye-bye.