In this video, David Oualaalou examines the recent 13th consecutive interest‑rate hike by the Bank of England, which lifted the base rate to 5%, and argues that the move masks a deeper, accelerating economic collapse in the United Kingdom. He critiques the British government’s handling of inflation, energy costs, and food prices, accusing Prime Minister Rishi Sunak of deception and of prioritising elite interests and foreign aid over domestic hardship. Oualaalou cites the S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) falling to a three‑month low, a slowdown in consumer services spending, and a rapid contraction in manufacturing as evidence that the UK economy is faltering faster than official narratives suggest. He links the UK’s woes to broader Eurozone challenges, the fallout from EU sanctions on Russia, and the global debt burden, warning that rising borrowing costs will strain IMF‑linked dollar‑denominated loans worldwide. Throughout, he emphasizes that official statistics and media reports downplay the severity of inflation, which remains among the highest in the G7, and that household bills continue to rise despite claims of easing. The video concludes that a recession is imminent for the UK, mirroring similar pressures in the US and other advanced economies, and calls for viewers to stay informed about the geopolitical underpinnings of these economic trends.
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Hello everyone and welcome to Geopolitical Trends. My name is David Oualaalou. So good to be with you as always. I'm very excited to be here. By the way, guys, the Bank of England just raised interest rate 2 days ago for the 13th time in a row, and they raised it to 5%. In this video, I'm going to provide you my insights about what it all means. And answer the fundamental question: is the UK economy faltering or even on the verge of collapse? But before I'll do this, like always, I'd like to thank the channel's members and supporters. And for you, if this is your first time landing on this channel, I'm glad you are here and look forward to having you as part of this community. So let's dive in into this. Oh, by the way, I want to extend my thanks to my editor. Yeah, I shouldn't forget that, and I would never forget that. By the way, guys, I want to say thank you to my editor because we— he's the ones helping me out with all these videos you are watching. So thank you very much, editor. All right, let's dive in into this, guys. The UK economy is faltering as we speak as inflation the sort of the pressures of inflation remain very high, which is the government of Britain is lying to the citizens about the true economic conditions or the current state of the economy. So it looks to me personally like the UK is experiencing similar fate of that of Germany, France, and other eurozone countries economically speaking. So, and we all know why, why energy costs are so high, and of course the failed policies of the EU regarding sanctions for Russia. But I'm not here to talk about that one. I'm here to focus on the British economy here. So yet, despite all this, the incompetent Prime Minister Sunak is lying to Brits from all walks of life Of course not the elite, because he is one of the elites and has to defend their priorities, per se. So the common man in England, Sunak is not doing anything about him or her. That's just a reality. So, so how this all happens? Well, just 2 days ago, as I said, actually, as a matter of fact, yesterday— by the time you watch this video, it will be about 3 or 4 days— yesterday, the Central Bank of England raised the interest rate. As I said earlier, for the 13th time in a row, they raised it to 5%. So what basically was a survey that was conducted that revealed that the British economy has shown— here is the interesting thing, they always say has shown signs of slowing down, the slowing economy this month. The same argument was made about Germany, oh, showing signs of slowing down, when in a real in reality is not slowing down, it is faltering. It's going down so fast, so they want to sort of minimize the impact. That's why those words are being carefully used. So, and I'm not here to— I'm gonna tell you what it is. So what the reason being, because inflation pressures still high despite what you hear. There are serious problems inside the UK economically speaking. Especially when it comes down to prices of commodities, food, and other stuff. And I'm gonna detail some of it here. So, so the survey was published after the Bank of England sharply raised this interest rate, as I said. And it says, is the reason why the bank raised it because they want to curb the inflation rate. That's a lie. You, you have the inflation because you are paying so much in energy because due to the failed policies of the government. That's the bottom line to it. And anything— when energy cost goes up, companies will be shutting down because they can't afford those high prices. That's what it is. What's interesting is that other Western media is saying— get this, guys— saying that, oh, UK economy is showing signs of a recovery despite inflation drag, which is a lie. Like I always say, They wanted to minimize the impact by using certain keywords. And average Joe, average Jane that does not understand those dynamics is going to say, oh, the media is saying, oh, the economy just showing signs of recovery, when in reality there's none. Ask the average Joe, average Jane in England, and they will tell you, because he or she is the one going to grocery stores and seeing where those prices are. And the incompetent Prime Minister Sunak is flying over to Ukraine and pledging millions of dollars— millions of pounds in this case— at the expense of the British people. That's just shame, shame. So UK economy, in my opinion and based on the research that was conducted, is heading for its worst crash. That's where I see it going. You know, well, they're not going to want to disclose this information because, as I said again, they wanted to minimize the impacts of it. So here's the thing: after the central bank raised interest rates, the preliminary reading on Friday, which is today when I'm doing this recording, at the time of this recording, showed that the S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers index. It's known as PMI. Once again, it's Purchasing Managers Index, which basically— what is it in a simple language? It covers the sort of businesses in the service area and manufacturing sectors. That's what this PMI, uh, PMI rather, is all about— Purchasing Managers Index. So, well, what it shows basically is that It fell to a 3-month low of 3.52 points in June, this month, and it fell from 8 points in May, just within a span of 30 days. I mean, June is not even over yet. Within the span, it fell from 8 to 3.52 points. And what, what is the reason for that? It's due to weak growth since January, the beginning, because the energy prices is taking a hit on the economy there. And, and what they're saying is that aimed at difficulties factories are facing. Well, what is it? Why aren't they spilling it out straightforward by saying is the energy cost that factories couldn't afford? That's why they're shutting down. That's why people cannot afford to buy things. So here's the reason, is energy. That is the reason. So to me, basically Economics 101 will tell you, or will suggest, that in the case of the UK, UK's economy has lost momentum after this so-called brief spring growth, which was nothing in comparison to how much people are paying for commodities like food and other items. So, and it appears to be heading, in my opinion, for further weakening in the coming months. It's no different than Germany, it's no different than France, no different than other eurozone countries. This is where I, I, I see it's common sense, but they are playing with words so the average person doesn't see and doesn't understand. This is where I feel the need to have this channel like this is by bringing you this information, the truth that is, and for you to see whether you live in England or not, you know, your country, if you happen to be in Europe, is facing the same thing we're facing in here in the US. So that is the reason why I get excited when I get on the air here recording this for you, because I want you to know so you can think as to what lies ahead moving forward. So, and by the way, guys, if you like the content of this video so far, please hit that like button. And subscribe if you feel like it. So, so here's the thing. I read, and like I always say, I do my own homework before I come on the air to share information with you because I have to fact-check it and I have to confirm it before because it's my name on it. So I care for my credibility. So here's what happened. I had the chance to read a, a report that came up from the, uh, business economist. He's like the chief— this guy is the chief business economist at Standard Poor Intelligence. His name is Williamson, Chris Williamson. And he said— and I even kept the quote for you guys— he said, and I quote, it is noticeable that consumer spending on services, which was the main driver of growth in the spring is now showing signs of faltering, end of quote. So what does it mean? Based in the simple language, this basically is attributed to a high interest that central bank just did. It is also tied to or attributed to inflation, high energy cost, and concerns about the economic outlook. Well, because the outlook does not look positive. Not just for England but for whole Europe for that matter. They shot themselves in the foot by embarking on failed economic policies, and now their citizens are paying the price. We're doing the same here in the US. Australia is even worse. So, so the preliminary reading of this survey showed that the British services sector grew at a slower pace in 3 months, and the manufacturing sector contracted at the fastest pace in 6 months. You all remember the video I did for you about Germany's economy contracting in 2 quarters consecutively. That's a bad sign, and those are basic economic factors, you know, Economic 101. You don't have to be a genius to figure this out. Basic economics says that when you have, uh, 2 quarters consecutively there is a contraction That's a bad sign for the rest of the year economically. England is no different. So, so like I said earlier, the Central Bank of England decided to raise interest rate for the 13th time in a row and raising it to 5%. That's a sharp increase from 0.1% at the end of 2021. So just between the end, which is basically the beginning of 2022, which is just last year to this year, within that time span, they raised it to 5%. As a matter of fact, we are even considering here in the United States that the Fed chairman Jerome Powell considering increasing interest rate. Oh, I gotta fight inflation. They have no clue what are they doing to the average Joe or average Jane here at home for us in America and even for England, let alone what it's doing to the countries that have borrowed money from the IMF in a dollar. Can you imagine what's gonna do to their loans? Those are in billions of dollars. This is why, for example, Argentina had a hard time paying off its debt, and it keeps increasing, because the moment you increase interest rate here, it translates into the loans that those countries— this is why having a loan from an IMF or the World Bank is bad news. Bad news. So the Bank of England basically is expected to continue raising borrowing costs in a bid— and this is what they always say— in a bid to tackle inflation, pardon me, which reached about 9% last month. That's what they say. The reality is different. And there are some subscribers in this channel from England And I intend to ask some of them because they live there, so they are aware of the prices. So when I do a live stream next time, I'm gonna ask some of them. So, so as I said, the US is doing the same here, so it's no different. So, so here's my conclusion, because like I always say, I like to keep these, uh, videos concise and to the point. And if you guys like me to expand even further on this just let me know in the comment section that you would like to have a live stream on this particular topic, and I'll be happy because I will expand on the research on it, and I will be happy to do it. So that's, that's what this channel is all about. So here's my conclusion for you. The inflation rate, you know, again, I don't trust what they're saying. I don't trust what the British government is saying, or the central bank for that matter. The, the inflation rate has fallen from a peak of 11.1% last October. This is what they're saying. But household bills are, are still rising. So how can you say inflation is going down and yet prices still going up? That just doesn't make sense. You know right there it's a lie. So household bills are still rising up at the fastest rate in the G7. Countries, believe it or not. Yeah, that's what they are not detailing as to why that is. So, so supermarkets inflation, for example, has, has sort of eased to its lower level this year once again. Would you believe what they're saying? And yet despite this, it remains the 6th highest level since the financial crisis of 2008. This is how bad it is in the UK. And yet I don't understand why the government of the incompetent Prime Minister Sunak is allocating billions of pounds in support of Ukraine. I just don't get it. So the UK— get this, guys— UK also imports more get this, more than 50% of its food they don't grow. It's 50%, it's imported mostly from the EU countries, and yet they want out of the EU. Go figure, right? Yeah, which has proved to be badly affected by the rising raw material costs and energy. That's what's at the heart of it. So food prices have risen at more than 18% in England for most of the year, and it's expected to even go higher. I won't be surprised. Which means what? It's pushing the overall UK— yeah, it's pushing the overall UK inflation rate above the rival economies. Well, you won't trust all of them anyway because they're lying. You remember what our Secretary of Treasury said? Oh, the inflation is transitory. Liar! She was lying. You know, average American here is struggling. As a matter of fact, 60% of the American population living from paycheck to paycheck. There is a rise in poverty here in the US by 23%. And what the government is saying? Oh, inflation is transitory. It's no different than it is in the UK. They're lying. That's the bottom line too. What it looks to me, it looks to me that recession is here. That's how I see it. So by the way, guys, once again, if you like the content of this video, hit that like button. I would really appreciate it. And subscribe if you want to support this channel. As always, guys, hope you find this information very informative, and I look forward to seeing you next time. As always, remember, geopolitics impacts your daily life in more ways than one. Till next time, guys, bye-bye.
