The US Can't Win Another Conflict in the Middle East!

All right, hello everybody and welcome to Geopolitical Trends. So excited to be with you as always. Today's topic is something, uh, I wrote about. It's about Iran, uh, but also it's about the rationality and the wisdom in Washington, whether is it the right thing now to consider another conflict in the Middle East, let alone against Iran. So I figured, uh, yesterday I made that decision a little later last night before I went to bed. I decided now, uh, my viewers needs to know about this topic, not only again my familiarity and also writing a book about and doing the research, uh, but also because of the consequences that I see, the implications of something like this we are getting involved in. Let alone the statements of our, uh, uh, what do I call him, an unqualified president. So Joe, Uncle Joe, President Joe, uh, for saying that, well, we need to be in every war. I don't think so. But that tells you right there where the story is. So this is what I'm gonna be providing you, a really a big picture about what a conflict like this in the Middle East, let alone against Iran, what it will mean for the future of the geopolitical landscape, not only in that part of the world, but around— not only in the Middle East, but also around the world. So, but before I'll do this, I'd like to extend my sincere thanks to all of you. If this is your first time on this channel here, please make sure to, uh, uh, subscribe and hit the notification button so you will be notified every time I upload new video or come on the air for livestream. I like to give a shout out to a new channel member by the name Y Thaum. Thank you very much for becoming a channel supporter. We are now about 91, so we have 9 to go to reach 100, so I can do that as I promised you. And I'm a man of my word, I only deliver what I say I will. I will do that special Q&A or exclusive Q&A for the members and supporters. So, so I look forward to reaching that number soon. I have few announcements quickly here, uh, remember to join me tomorrow for my interview with Jayant, uh, Bhandari. It will be, it will be at 8:00 PM my time here, so because he is in a different part of, uh, of the world, of course, time zone, and it will be about 10:00 AM his time. So it's going to be tomorrow, so remember to join me, for that live stream, uh, or that interview, that is. The second thing is remember to sign up for my free, uh, book. Let me, let me give you the, uh, link to it if you are interested in having a copy of the free book, uh, that I wrote about, uh, Saudis. Uh, where is it? If I can even find it. It's right here. So, uh, this is just to sign up for this, uh, through this one, and you can get, uh, a copy of electronically of my Saudi book. So anyway, let's, let's dive in into this because there is a lot to cover with this one here. And, uh, uh, but first I want to also say hi to some of you. Uh, Hong Tuan, good to see you as always. Camp 35, good to see you. Marcian Dorcier from Chicago, good to see you. Um, Isaac, good to see you. Boycott, good to see you. Francis Tango, good to see you. Uh, Sam Stone, good to see you. So very excited to have you here, guys. So let's, uh, let's get into our conversation here because there's there's so many pieces I have to cover to at least provide you that big picture. Well, we're gonna ask the 3 main questions, at least in my perspective. Can the US afford to engage in another conflict? And if you notice, I didn't say in the Middle East, but I said in another conflict, because whether the conflict is in East Asia, South China Sea, uh, in, uh, in, in Africa, in Latin America, or Middle East, in general term another conflict? Can we afford to engage in another conflict? Second thing is, what will be the geopolitical ramifications of a military confrontation in the Middle East? Because one thing that I have learned over the years, any, any disruption in the Middle East or any conflict of whatever nature tends to impact the global economy. You're already hearing some entities from different parts of the world saying, well, we're gonna this is going to push the world into recession. Because if you think that, that a conflict like that in Middle East is going to be okay, it will not. And the second— or the third question, rather— we're going to have to put in perspective, and I'm going to just say it as a statement, not a question: Iran is not Iraq. So if the US is thinking, oh, it's, it's cakewalk, Iran is not Iraq. I, I guarantee you this, and not only based on the, the research that I did as far as Iran's military capabilities. Yes, we have— we, the United States, have a mighty military, whatever. But look, what did we do in Afghanistan with even our might? What did we do in Iraq with our might, military might, that is? So what's going to make this different? Just because we send in an aircraft carrier thinking, well, we're gonna intimidate these people. Those people don't get intimidated. Because here's one thing I want you to understand about the mindset in that part of the world, in the Middle East writ large, especially when it comes down to Arab and Muslim countries. Death, it's not scary to them. They don't fear that. Why? Because that, it's part of the normal process in life. Whether we die today or die tomorrow, we all dying anyway. And that's how they approaching it. So the same thing was in Afghanistan when we send, you know, those, uh, uh, the F-16s, the, the mighty power, thinking we're gonna intimidate the locals. No, it doesn't work. But in the case of Iran, makes it even more complicated. And I'm gonna get into this as I move forward in the conversation. And by the way, I have a section of this part of the analysis, what exactly I wrote in my book right there behind me, the Iran Volatile State: Iran in the Nuclear Age. And I talked back then about today. It was just very interesting how my instinct was telling me a few years back, you're talking over a decade or so, I needed to start thinking about writing the books that I, where I see the trajectory heading towards. And, and, and, you know, it worked out. So I'm, I'm very, I'm very glad that I did. Uh, and this is what also prompted me to work on my China book because of what I see again coming in 2030, 2035, and, uh, 2049. So whether I'm alive to see that or not, that's another conversation. So here's the thing, uh, uh, this is now alarming It's becoming alarming because we enter into second week, uh, second week of the conflict between Israel and, and Palestine, or, or Hamas for that matter. So it is alarming prospect, you know, for why the swift spreading of the conflict, uh, between, uh, Israel and, uh, Palestine or Hamas group, whatever you want to call it. We call it Palestine in general. Let's just, uh, so this way you can keep it simple then. But the problem, what makes it even more alarming now, is that the US announced its vehement support for Israel, which is— again, it's your decision, guys. I'm gonna provide you the information. I don't stand with either, you know. I'm being objective. All I can do is provide the facts, provide the information, share with you my own analysis, but I will let you reach your own conclusion, as I've always been doing since I start this channel. No. So the idea that the United States announcing almost a $10 billion, and, and for me as a taxpayer, I'm like, hold on a second, why tax my tax dollars going over there again? I mean, haven't we had enough with the, the, this damn Ukraine conflict that the Biden administration just sending our tax dollars and all of a sudden now writing a blank check to Israel for what? You know, that's beside the point whether supporting Israel or not. That's beside the point. What is relevant is for us to understand where our tax dollars are spent on. So here we are allocating another $10 billion, let alone our national debt is going over $33 trillion. But what makes this very alarming, as I mentioned earlier, is the idea of that now if the US gets involved, Iran's going to get involved. You can just see this is not going to be limited to the Middle East borders. It's gonna go out. And the reason I'm saying this, it's because there are so many factions in the Middle East under the support of Iran. So if we are thinking— and I'm gonna say it straightforward here, especially for my American audience— if we think that everything is going to be limited over there, we're mistaken. We might start seeing some issues right here at home. The, the, the security and safety Israel will be gone. Because now Israel will be have to deal with so many different directions attacking it. All of a sudden, we already allocated now about 2,000 troops to be shipped to— I am sure the soldiers asking themselves, you know, what am I going there for? What this has to do with my own country? You know, well, if you take that as one of, uh, one of the viewers asked me the question Uh, Dr. O, is the 2,000 troops in addition to the, the ones already on the aircraft carriers? Yes. So basically, we'll be, we'll be looking at about 6,000 troops if you are to count between the two aircraft carriers and the troops and so forth, about 4,000. Then you add the 2,000 from the Marines, that makes it about 6,000. So why is this problematic? Well, problematic because if the conflict expand, if Israel moves forward to Gaza, which what Iran warned Israel, as they say, there is still room for peace, but we are also— this is the— I'm paraphrasing the statements of the foreign minister of Iran, Abdollahian, when he said, and I'm paraphrasing here, we still room for peace, but we are prepared. And I could just feel, literally I can feel the, like, like, like the foreign minister owns it. Meaning we are ready this time around, and they are ready for a reason. And I'm going to share with you the missile technologies that so far Iran has achieved. There are some very, very capabilities that's going to make you think twice about engaging in something. And I'm not saying again be scared of this or that. No, that's not what I'm saying, and I don't say that kind of, uh, stuff. So But here's the thing, despite these tensions going, Iran still hold the key. Why? Because when you look at geography, and I don't know if I have a map for you guys here, uh, no, I, I forgot to put it. So anyway, when you look at the map, uh, just the two locations, Lebanon and Syria, right on the border with Israel. And when I mentioned earlier about 16 to 17 sects or factions rather. I'm sorry, factions that the middle— Iran is very wired in the Middle East. This is why this is gonna not be this open war as you and I know it. It's gonna be something like what we experienced in Iraq, which we had a very hard time containing. Same thing what we experienced in Afghanistan, which we had a hard time containing. That's why we end up failing. That's why we left Afghanistan in, in that humiliating way, which to me was a slap in the face as a former military myself. Of course, it was in a different time when we used to think about, you know, you are fighting for something, you believe in something. I mean, nowadays you're gonna think about anybody who may be thinking about the military is like, why do I need to join military for? And the recruitments in the US military is so low. It's beyond. So, so this is where that argument that I am coming from. And this, by the way, I had a chance to read an article by, uh, and you give credit where credit is due, it was written by Simon Tisdall, and I'm gonna, uh, post it for you guys later on. And, and his argument made sense, the idea that Iran holds the key to all this. And this is why I think Iran was in position to step forward and said Israel, you have two choices here. If you cross into Gaza, we coming in. If you reconsider, there's always possibility for peace. Straightforward, you know. But again, when you consider what Israel just did with bombing a hospital, you call spade a spade. And again, I am not here to judge any entity. I'll provide the facts, but I'll let you reach your own conclusions. If you bomb a hospital, that's considered a war crime because hospitals are off-limits. It's the same like children, is the same like the elderly. At least for me, that's my rule. Back then when I was in the military, you know, you, you get your rifle and if you have to do, uh, take a life of sort, you have to justify it. Yeah, because war is nasty. But to target a hospital, that just defies logic. The next question we're going to ask now: will that case go under investigation in the ICC, the International Criminal Court? I don't believe so because I've lost faith in those international institutions. They have no credibility whatsoever. I mean, you look at just our behavior the type of foreign policy we are embarking on, that tells you right there where the story is. So we're saying one thing and doing another. And again, this is not about supporting, being against, or for entity— that's not what I'm talking about. I'm talking about objectivity here. So, and that's exactly what the author of this article— it's called The Peril Now Facing Us: Israel Invades, Iran Intervenes, and this war goes global. Spot on. So, and I, I will provide you the link, uh, for all this. So, and, and, and it is rightly so, because a conflict in the Middle East, let alone with Iran, is going to change the landscape on multi-fronts— politically, socially, ethnically, religiously, and economically. Because if you are to think about it from all those angles, Just think about it from a religious and, and social aspect. It's going to unite everybody because they all are sort of Muslims. Yes, they are Arabs, they are Arab Christians, they are this, that— it won't matter. They all going to go on the same thing, you know. And socially, it's going to mobilize, which we already seen around the world, you know. Then you take actions like what France is doing banning any peaceful demonstrations. Yeah, they are demonstrating for some cause. Well, now France is banning. This is, as we call it, le pays de la liberté, the country of freedom. What freedom are we talking about? Germany is doing the same. And that put the question mark on really this notion of democracy. Like I always say, it's an illusion. And now you see why, when again, and I'll take it back to the trip of Chuck Schumer to China, why he wants to push China into condemning, uh, uh, Palestine, the group in Palestine, whatever and so forth. And China said, no, I don't think so. It's because they are not going to be thinking in those terms. So, and this just to give you an idea about how global this will become if it reaches that point of— now you can look at this from many angles. We, we'll think about it just from a simple— and I'm going to simplify this, this analysis for you so this way it won't be too complicated. Let's think about it from a tactical perspective. Excuse me. Tactically speaking, we do have locations or, or bases in the Middle East. And almost of these bases, at least this, this is my own research and my own understanding, and I was there and I've been part of that back then in my previous life. All those bases are within reach of Iran's missiles. We all know what it means. Do you think, and here's the question, do you think Iran is going to think twice about launching that missile if it's attacked? That's one from a tactical perspective, which means what? The countries where those, uh, military bases are hosted, they're going to have to be put as a target. They become like— they be put in a spot. This is why I believe why now Jordan, the country of Jordan, just announced yesterday that they are canceling the summit. It was supposed to be a summit President Biden to go there, the King of Jordan, Israel come in. They cancel that altogether. And the Palestinian representative, they cancel all that together. But Jordan canceled this not because they want to, it's because the pressure from their own people. Like I said earlier, the monarchy was thinking about its own survival, and I don't shy away from saying this because truth matters. And for us, a situation like this, at least as an analyst and who understands what the ramification of something like this— this is— will not— this conflict will not be limited to the borders of the Middle East only. It's going to expand far beyond, and that is where my concern is. So, but if you are to continue with this, uh, uh, uh, analysis of the tactical aspects If Israel now is being attacked from all angles, what do you think choices is going to be left for it? Nukes. This is one of the reasons why we only wanted to keep Israel militarily the capabilities up here and no one else. That was the whole issue about this issue of the Iran nuclear file and, and, and, and, uh, for Iraq and Libya and all that. Because it was the conversation about them considering the potentials for acquiring nuclear technology or nuclear weapon. As we speak now, Saudis are in conversation behind closed doors about nuclear technology, and we even agreed— some companies here in the US agreed to consider sharing the technology with the Saudis by building a nuclear power plant. Well, it could start with a nuclear power that, you know, you know. And you think about it in terms of Iran's missile technology. Of course they have the indigenous homegrown, but also had help from outside. And you can think of two countries, China and, and Russia. And why is this? Is because the dynamics of the Middle East, the political landscape in the Middle East, required the shift— China and, and Russia saw this opportunity way back, and that was through the negotiations over a nuclear, uh, dossier of Iran. Because what the West does not disclose, and I'm gonna share it with you, and I disclose this in my book, so there is reference for it where I get the information from. What the West does not disclose is that when Iran reached the agreement with the P5+1, P5 being the permanent members of the UN Security Council, plus Germany. When they reached that deal, the West said, well, we reached it. Well, wait a minute, it wasn't the West, it was Russia and China that convinced Iran behind closed doors to agree to the deal. Russia and China also knew, knew back then that if this deal is reached, they're gonna reap the, uh, fruit of that effort that they put in. And this is why I'm going to disclose to you in my own analysis that I wrote in the book about where I see the relations, the trilateral relations— China, Russia, and Iran— as I move forward into this. So the question we need to ask for ourselves from tactical perspective, uh, why is Biden all of a sudden doing this? And by the way, Congress gave him now the authority to do whatever. Another word, this is, uh, an opportunity the neocons have been looking for, this war with Iran, for so long. Could it be it? I don't know, I can't answer this one right now. So, and this to me became evident when, uh, the 21st, uh, chairman of the Joint Chief of Staff, General Brown, was nominated I don't know if I have his picture here. No, I don't. Uh, when he was nominated, uh, his first word— let me get you the quote, guys, of what he said. He said, and I quote, 'We want to send a pretty strong message. We do not want this to broaden, and the idea is for Iran to get that message loud and clear,' Brown told a small group of reporters. You can just tell he's been told what to say. FYI, the, the chairman, the Joint Chief of, uh, the Joint Chief of Staff, uh, for, for, uh, uh, the military, he, whomever in that position, the chairman of the Joint Chief of Staff cannot say anything without being told what to say, general or not. They have to follow the script. And that's exactly what this guy is saying. So, uh, yeah, you give him the proper respect. Well, he worked hard to get to 4-star general. But to me, this shows how clueless he is about understanding the geopolitical ramifications of us getting involved in something like this. And that is where my big concern— and this is why I question the judgments of our administration, Biden mainly, uh, for this surge in supplies of air defenses, munitions, and other security assistance to Israel. Yes, you want to support Israel, more power to you, but also you have to understand how you are tilting the balance, which by the way impacts your credibility even further, sinking it down. This is why we don't have any credibility left on the global stage. You know, it's a reality and we can't shy away from it. But because you have elements inside Washington behind closed doors that are pushing the narrative, like I said yesterday, I remember, uh, as at the time, as we speak now, there is, uh, uh, representatives from the Biden administration is already in Taiwan. Because the upcoming election coming soon, and they wanted to make sure the, uh, the tensions remain on that part, in that part of the world. But this in the Middle East, it will change. It will be a game changer. Not that the one in, in, in Asia will not be— it will be also. But the question is, are we capable of getting involved in this conflict? Again. And it became clear, it became clear as to who is pushing this kind of actions behind the scenes. Of course, Biden now is going to Israel and so forth to show the support. Does he care? No, he cares about the political outcome here at home because the upcoming elections This is why our political system is a mess, corrupted, of course, because we always have to think about the next 4 years, the next 4 years. That's why you, you don't see anything achieved. Uh, infrastructure is not built, education system is not reformed, the healthcare system is not reset per se because it's broken, the tax system is, is so broken beyond belief. And it becomes a question also for us, some of us Americans. I shall not generalize. Are we that naive? Are we that oblivious to see how our tax dollars, that hard-earned dollars, are being just sent to some far lands for some causes have nothing to do with our well-being? And this is where that argument I'm making regarding getting involved in this So let me share one picture. I only have one here for you, just to— and I put it in perspective for you. This is, uh, the developments of new missiles, because Iran, Iran, believe it or not, has obtained— I even have a picture of hypersonic technology. You can only imagine where they get that from. Uh, they obtained high supersonic cruise missiles technology. And by the way, this was back in August '23. Now I've even read in some— I couldn't confirm it, let me just put this on a record— I couldn't confirm that, that, that missile or that supersonic cruise missiles has entered service. Couldn't confirm that one, but this has been worked on since August 2023 when they acquired the technology. And this is where I see the game changer for things like this. This is 17 factions. They all can join their efforts, and Israel will have to deal with so many directions. So that means automatically we have to be involved. If we are involved, you know, do the American— even American people know what are we getting involved or what, what is our interest in that to begin with? And this is what I'm saying, I'm trying to provide an objective assessment here, an argument. This is not for or against, and personally I am not for or against any. I am for what it's right for the American people, not even the damn government. Because I don't care for the government, our government. I care for the welfare of the American people, the average Joe, the average Jane that is, uh, that is busting his, his behind for 40, 50 hours a week to make ends meet. And yet the government will come and take about 28 to 35% of his or her earned hard dollars and send them to just countries like this. That's what I am arguing for. Because the, that, uh, that average Joe, average Jane that might not possess the, the intellectual capabilities to understand this dynamics, and I'm trying to bring it to the fore if they happen to be watching this, to understand why will I be sending my tax dollars there? Why would I even agree with what my government is doing? I don't, and I say it on a record. It's because it doesn't benefit American people. Straightforward. All right, let me share with you my own analysis about literally exactly what I argued about 5 years ago, actually 15, 16, 17, almost 6 or 7 years ago, and to put it within the context of what is happening today. Because to me, you will never ever assume that it will always be a relative peace in the Middle East. No. And that's why I argue, and I'm going to share it with you, it is a challenging proposition, it is an audacious undertaking to forecast literally what the world might look like in years following the agreement that Iran has reached with, with the West regarding the nuclear program. And that was the argument back then. And the reason I did this, or I argue with that point, because I couldn't find— I couldn't find a point of reference or images or precedents on which to base my prediction. What I could, however, do is to create a possible scenario that addresses vital issues, uh, uh, uh, up— in, in the upcoming geopolitical shift in the Middle East, what they may consist of. This is one of them: an open conflict. You're going to be seeing the changes completely to the geopolitical landscape in the Middle East, and you see the outcome of it around the world. Then I said to myself, well, wait a minute, my human instinct may guide me to present a clear picture of this new reality as closely as possible. But when forecasting the scope of this shift, meaning the geopolitical, uh, shift that is, I consider the vivid images of human experiences. I mean, including mine, be it a tragedy or not. The political conditions the historical events, both of them distant and present. And I ask myself, could my prediction become a reality? That's usually how I always approach, uh, matters when it comes down to the Middle East and other geopolitical issues around the world as well. And the argument was, when Iran advances its military capabilities, how this now is going to change the equation for all parties involved. And of course, the US foreign policy machinery, whether in the past or present administrations, produces only the vaguest most imprecise of strategic responses to something like this. Why? Because we do have amateurs in Washington, in the State Department. There are no, no sort of individuals with some depth when it comes down to understanding what's at the heart of geopolitical matters. Like I always say, you read a book or two and you call yourself an expert. We got a problem with that. And what made it even worse is that the limited political debate within the US foreign policy establishment centers on the concept of long-term containment. This is exactly what we wanted to do to China, what we are trying to do to China. I've argued so many times, that era is gone. It's too late. You can't contain China. You have— you might have succeeded 35 years ago to do that. It's too late now. And interesting enough is that within that span of 30 or 35 years, China moved so fast ahead. It's too late to contain China. And because we are still thinking— some knuckleheads in Washington still thinking about the mindset of Well, we can apply the same containment we did on Soviet Union back then. Yeah, that was back then. The world was different. The geopolitical landscape was different. China wasn't what it is today. Iran wasn't what it is today. They didn't, they didn't factor that in, let alone the big them of the big of them all is that those knuckleheads in Washington They don't want to admit that the world has changed and we better change with it. Gone the era where we will dictate the terms and expect the rest of the world to just say, yes sir, yes ma'am. That era is gone because this failure on part of the US foreign policy establishment What they didn't understand is that it's going to be far more complicated process that defies literally the norms and boundaries of what international relations are all about. So this is why, because the only thing— at least I reached the conclusion some years ago— the only thing I was certain of is that one way or another Iran, once it develops its, its nuclear capabilities or missile technology, whatever, whatever it is today, this will contribute to a seismic geopolitical shift with movement reverberating far beyond the border of the Middle East. That is why I'm saying what I'm saying. The foreign minister of Iran will not come forward and say, hey Israel, you still have a chance for peace, but if you cross into Gaza, we coming in. That's to me the sound of how confident Iran is. Then if we are to ask about, well, what will happen, what will be the dimensions, uh, of, of the, uh, Middle East, uh, geopolitical shift if there is a war broke out between Israel, US, and Iran? And the 17 other factions. Yeah, because as I always said, it will be short-sighted, it will be short-sighted, which what we have in Washington, to limit the elements of change of the— in the geopolitical landscape in the Middle East merely to just its political or economic aspects. It won't be limited to that. You will be seeing the reemergence of new alliances. You will even see profound happenings that will revolutionize the political thinking among Middle Eastern countries, not just Iran, but Middle East countries writ large. And whether we like it or not, it's going to be a reality, exactly what we are seeing today. And to give you an example and break it down for you, can we stop— and here's question for you— can we stop the rise of China? The answer is obvious. And that was my example for you to highlight to you this point of, you know, that just how it will revolutionize the political thinking, because we will thinking we still can control the outcome. No, we can't. Because our leadership, global one that is, is waning, is going down, which why you are seeing the reflection through the foreign policy failures and strategies that are ill-conceived. Usually what you are witnessing right now with American foreign policy is a sign for how irrelevant the US is becoming slowly, gradually. The world is moving on into a multipolar system. And when a former, former superpower seeing this change, it tends to embark on some irrational policies to justify, oh, we still the powerful nation, we still this, we still that. But in reality, it's a facade. It's an illusion. It's the same thing with democracy. It's an illusion. That is my point in all this. Just imagine for a second, imagine the new political order in the Middle East in which Iran— in this case, because that's— we're talking about Iran— politically, economically, ideologically, and religiously control one half of the region while Saudi Arabia controls the other half. This is the geopolitical game. This is what China was able to see and succeeded at— brokering a deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia, two main players in the Middle East, that they can manage the Middle East while kicking out the US. Now, to me That's strategic thinking on part of Beijing. And if we are to think on the military front, as I argued back then, and I still hold, uh, the same position, I've argued back then, once Iran secure economic access to global weapons markets and acquire technology, especially when it comes down to delivery systems regarding missiles. That's why they are where they are. That's why Israel couldn't go attack Iran. That's why the US couldn't go and attack Iran, because we know— and I argued this point with Scott Ritter, and I intend to bring him back in here for another conversation about this— and he did mention it. That's the reason why also the US and Israel couldn't attack, because they realize Israel— I mean, Iran's missile technology can cause very serious damage. So, and for the delivery system for Iran, that includes advanced weapon systems which they came both from two countries, Russia and China. This is why I argued back then, what would happen if you see an alliance among four countries— Iran, North Korea, China, and Russia? Just imagine for a second the military capabilities of all four. And in the case of China, this is what allow it to flex its military muscles. This is again, as an analyst, geopolitical analyst, I can assure you that the statement by the foreign minister of Iran when he said, Israel, you still have a chance for peace, but if you cross to Gaza, we will come in. It's because the flexing of Iran's military, uh, uh, muscles can be backed by action. Israel will have to think twice because I'm sure you heard me saying that Israel allocated about 462,000 troops to go in into this Gaza thing. Iran allocated about 2.1 million. You got the idea. And here is the interesting aspects of it. Iran received the delivery of a Russian S-300 missile system in addition to launchers, okay? And all this was back in 2016, '17. Can you imagine where they are today? That's why I said, could it be that they already developed this, uh, hypersonic missile, they just didn't want to come forward? Or maybe they did. I just didn't find it yet. I did find one image of it, uh, uh, but again, image doesn't do it for me, uh, till I confirm that is exactly what it is. I'm, I'm trying to locate it here to see what it is, but apparently I don't have it here. Uh, no, I don't have it. Anyway, it's not a big deal, guys, so— but that's what it is. And Iran wasn't reaching out just to Russia. Iran also reached out to China to improve the bilateral relations. That includes military cooperation. I wrote an article about the trip of a, a high-ranking general from China to Iran. And right there it became clear to me we're looking at the next step in the relationship here. And because especially when it comes down to China and Iran, this relationship serves both countries' economic, military, and strategic interest. This is why I am saying to you guys, what you hear and read, this highlight, this headline, the US is sending this and that It's nothing but posturing. Israel will have to deal with the reality that it will be attacked from different angles. The Iron Dome doesn't work, by the way, FYI. The US, uh, troops in the Middle East are within range of the missiles from Iran, and if not from Iran, they would be from groups that are supported by Iran. Because remember, Iran invested in these groups You know since when? Since the revolution in 1979. What, do you think the investment is going to just go out of the window? I don't think so. And if you think that Iran is only doing that— is only the only country doing this as far as, uh, uh, expanding its military apparatus by acquiring, uh, military weapons, advanced system, that is, you know, from both Russia and China. Don't think that it will be Iran only. You look at other countries like Saudi Arabia and Turkey, but mainly Saudi Arabia. But now Saudi Arabia and Iran are in good terms. I can see the collaboration between the two. I take special case into this, especially to understand how the dynamics is going to play out, because so far Saudi Arabia decided to freeze any plan for normalizing relations with Israel. The four countries that agreed— Bahrain, Morocco, United Arab Emirates, and Sudan— I don't know about Sudan position, uh, uh I don't know about Bahrain, but Bahrain is— Bahrain is another country with no sovereignty. Yeah, despite what you hear, you know, I'll say it, and I don't give a damn what their leader thinks. There's no sovereignty. You have the Fifth Fleet right there in Bahrain, our Fifth Fleet over there. Then I can just see that they were forced to agree to normalization, uh, normalization of relations with, with Israel. Did it. United Arab Emirates is wishy-washy. The United Arab Emirates plays both sides all the time. It has been known for how they manage the relations. Morocco did it also for specific reason as far as the, the desert, the Sahara Desert, because there's oil. There's, there's a lot of tensions in that part of the world, or that part of the, of, of, of the continent. So But even in the case of Morocco and United Arab Emirates, the two of them, at least to my knowledge, there are now massive demonstrations in Morocco that they don't want this normalization anymore, especially after what Israel did yesterday. You bomb a hospital. It's not right. You know, I'll criticize when criticism is due because there is something called fairness. Hospital. Why are you targeting hospitals? Yeah, go target military, uh, uh, installations. Go target something else. Civil, you know, and, and, and all this, you tell me there is no law in the world, there is no justice, there is no fairness. So where is the, uh, screaming of the ICC into this? And why should— let's just be fair— why should, uh, Israel be exempt from this? And when I say Israel, don't get me wrong, guys, I'm not saying Israeli people. I have Jewish friends, close friends, wonderful people. They'll take the coat out of their back and give it to you. Trust them with my life. I'm talking about the government. And even within the government in Israel, there are tensions. Israeli people wants Netanyahu out right now, not tomorrow, not next election. They want him out, dragging the country into some major war. But on the other hand, you have to think Is all this for a specific purpose? Destruction of sorts. Because like I said earlier, the Egyptians have alerted the Israelis about something coming up. The Israelis didn't— oh, whatever. Did they know and let it go so they can create the conditions for war that the Yokans here in the US have been wanting for a long time. I'll let you decide on that. So, Bill, when you take about in the case of Iran in Middle East, but also now Saudi Arabia— well, back then the argument was Saudi Arabia was engaged at that time in Yemen, in Syria, in Afghanistan, and some pockets in Southeast Asia that includes Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Kashmir, of course. That was back then. Still, to a degree, because those are for a religious purpose. And I'll tell you why. It's because these, those tensions have far-reaching consequences that goes beyond the military and economic matters. It involves ideological and religious dimensions. Why? Because it could threaten the survival of the Saudi monarch. Is the same arguments that can be made about the Jordanian monarch. That's why King Abdullah went ahead and canceled the summit altogether to show his people, yeah, I can say no to the US. Oh, wait a minute, wait a minute, you know, you are surviving because of our deal with you. We do have a presence in Jordan. We train the Jordanians. So there is no, uh, so because to the Saudis also, because they have to think about the survival of the monarchy, the concern, it was always in Saudi Arabia, like I argued in the Saudi book. This is why if you get a chance to sign up for that newsletter, you'll get the copy. And you see, I detailed a lot on it. So, because the core of the threat to the Saudi monarch is not Iran, and now of course since the, uh, uh, normalized relations, it's not Iran, you know, but rather the internal fighting among the royal family members over succession. This is why I believe down the road MBS might not survive And again, I'm using history here. Go back to 1975. Who can tell me what happened in 1975 in Saudi Arabia? Yeah, let's see if you guys can type it on the chat box. 1975. I know you can Google it and all that stuff, but just on the top of your head, if, uh, And I know it takes a while for it to show up here, and I do see the trend for that. But again, I, I know it's not the place for this to detail about, uh, what this is, but I disclosed it, uh, about, uh, in the Saudi book, the detail of it, because again, I spent 2 years just researching that. But I also worked in Saudi Arabia, and I understand their mindset, the political approach and, and, and all that, the social structure and so forth. So let me see what, what, uh, some of you, of the— you could answer that one. I know it takes a while for this. 1975, petrodollar. No, no, petrodollar was about 1973. Uh, Henry Kissinger went there, uh, many times, many times. Uh, start of disco, that was in the '70s, David K, late '70s. Yeah, oil, of course. Yeah, let me, let me tell you, uh, actually, no, no, somebody got it, somebody got it. Yes, Johan Slam, you got it, assassination of King Faisal. And if you know how King Faisal was assassinated, who killed him? It was his nephew. And why is that? Succession. This is why I am predicting down the road it might not happen, but there are tensions inside, and that's what the Saudis fear the most. Not about the, uh, uh, Iran. That's what I've argued, because, uh, maybe one day I'll do a live stream for you to break this down for you to understand the line of succession in Saudi Arabia and why it works the way it works. So I don't want to get into it now because it'll take us away from what I'm focusing on right here. And this is exactly, uh, uh, what's at the heart of it. So to understand now that why is the complications of all this in the Middle East if there is a war breaks up between the US and Iran, the US forward slash Israel and Iran. Iran is not going to be by itself. You got the 17, uh, factions, and we don't even know what Russia might do, what China might do, what North Korea might do, what Turkey might do. As a matter of fact, Turkey— and it was one of you that put a comment that Turkey is sending, uh, one of their, uh, naval assets, whatever, to challenge the US That was true, it was true. And this one has to do with sending it to Cyprus, and they're going to conduct training with Cyprus. And they warned— they, Turkey, warned the US that, hey, we're gonna be using live fires. That means if you get hit, ain't our problem, so you don't need to be here. But also Turkey is sending a message to the US. That's a subtle way of saying we will stand with the Palestinians. That's the way I read it. So, so why you have to see the, uh, the complications of the situation now? Because you have to add Russia and China to the mix. How so, you may ask? Well, the answer lies in both how China and Russia provides a platform on which they all can launch their strategic interests. And one of the key of this is to challenge the United States and exerting their influence over a changing Middle East. That is not through military confrontations, but rather through strategy. This is something we lacked Our foreign policy doesn't have, didn't have a strategy for the last 3 or 4 decades. What you're seeing right now, these actions by the United States, it's an indication of the failure of how ill-conceived our foreign policies are, because we are losing our thinking as to seeing the world is changing and we are losing our position. Well, wait a minute, wait a minute. I will be the first one to say we're losing our positions because our lack of credibility. If we are to approach countries in a setting of cooperation, we will have a different outcome. If we don't alienate countries and pointing finger and sanction this and do this, we won't have this outcome. In other words, we are creating this by ourselves, so we shouldn't be blaming others. That's the reality of it. And of course Washington is not going to accept that. You look at some representatives in Congress like the— I call him the crazy Lindsey Graham calling for you're going to have to bomb Iran. You know, when you have policymakers talking like that, you know, even what's his name, and I will challenge him on this, even his— what's his name, Dr. Jordan Peterson, which I lost respect for the guy. I used to respect the guy. So Jordan, if you are listening to me, I'm telling you straightforward, and I will debate you on it if you want. I lose respect when he said, well, you better just go and flatten them out or finish them off or something into that aspect. How can you, you know, as an intellectual, to say something like that? It doesn't matter you support Israel or not, that's beside the point, but we're talking about human lives here. So coming from somebody like Jordan Peterson, to me it diminishes. That's it. Why should I ever listen? Yeah, we all make mistakes and all that. I understand all that. It's just for— it's not in me. I cannot pretend. I don't pretend. For those who know me, if they are watching, close friends of mine, close people to me, they They know there's one thing they know about me. I can't pretend. If I am upset, I am upset. If I am happy, I'm happy. If I say I will take a mile for you, I will take a mile for you. But if I say I will not move an inch, then I will not move an inch. So in the case of Jordan Peterson, I am done with even listening to logical arguments he makes sometimes, because to me, that's it. That was, uh, but anyway, that's beside the point. And here is where the thing is for China and, and Russia, the strategic vision, because they saw— they, Russia, Moscow, and Beijing— they saw that it's just a matter of time in an ever-changing Middle East, things will change. And that's why Iran and China won't cooperating with Iran because they care for Iran. No, no, don't even think that. It's a strategic calculation, which is normal. Every country will have to think in those terms. And this is why I want— as far as saying, it will be just a matter of time before China and Russia will enter into some strategic alliance with Iran, and specifically a military one. Why? Because it's gonna serve their separate objectives, whatever they may be. The objectives for Russia are different from the objectives of China, are different from the objectives of Iran. And yet, if they cooperate, all three they can serve all their strategic interests. So of course, what we're going to be expect as an analyst, you have to think in terms of the collision course that is lying ahead. Politically, geopolitically speaking, what you're gonna see is you're gonna see some sort of, uh, a collide in the Middle East between China and, and Russia and renminbi policy and that of the United States. But the United States is losing that battle. Why? Because Saudi Arabia has now, uh, uh, uh, normalized relations with Iran, an arch enemy. Arch enemy back then. We were maintaining that divide and conquer between those two because those two are main pillars in the Middle East. No more. So this is why I'm saying that collision geopolitically speaking, between Russia, China, Iran's foreign policy, and the United States. But it's too late for us because our leadership has declined, and especially following the disastrous, uh, foreign policy in the last 15 years or 20, including the ill-conceived invasion of Iraq, which, by the way, I think China objected to that. Expressed to the US that you don't— you might want to reconsider. Uh, Egypt said the same thing to, to, uh, so to the US, but the US didn't listen. Tells you it wasn't the administration, they were behind the scenes pushing for that. And the reason all this is because the message that this ill-conceived policies from the United States China and Russia read it, saw through it. They understand. That's what made them move forward, because the US is struggling through this ambiguous foreign policy. And we're seeing the, the, the, the example of it. For example, this, this Chuck Schumer going to China, uh, Janet Yellen going to China, Secretary of State going to China, even CIA director going to China. You know, those are foreign policy tools, but it tells you right there how chaotic that is. Very chaotic. So, so I argued that with this inevitable, inevitable shift in the geopolitical landscape in the Middle East, I am convinced— I was convinced, and I am even convinced today more than ever— that despite the separate agenda of the triangle countries Russia, China, and Iran, they will coordinate their effort towards a common goal, whatever that common goal might be in the Middle East. And you guys can figure it out. I don't want to spell it for you because I want you to think. So this is how I see it. Wow, I can't believe it, an hour already passed. So where time goes. So let me say thank you to, uh, DTGO. Thank you so much for your Super Sticker, truly appreciate it. I know some of you sent me a comment, want to know how to send a Super Sticker. I did put some notes for that, but thank you so much for your Super Sticker, truly appreciate it. Let me see who else. And of course, I will take a question or two, guys, from you, uh, after I, I scroll through here because I don't want to mess up anybody. I don't want to miss, uh, giving a shout out to XRP MD. Thank you so much for your Super Sticker. It means a lot. It's, uh, uh, don't mind me if I say this, the first time I see your screen name here. So I hope if this is your first time here, I'm so excited that you're here. So Uh, and thank you so much for your Super Sticker. Truly appreciate it. Uh, let me see who else. And I want you all to understand and know how much your support means a lot to me. And I don't say it to be Mr. Nice, I'm beyond that, and you guys know that about me by now. So I truly appreciate it, and I give credit where credit is due. So to all of you, I say thank you, because without you there will be no channel. And yes, some of you have sent, the channel has been suppressed. Yeah, what, what, what? There's nothing I can do about that. It is what it is. So maybe, uh, a word of mouth from you to the people you know, just send them to the channel and ask them to subscribe. I would greatly appreciate it because that's the only way, uh, for us to reach out more, people around the world to understand. Oh, Juniper, thank you so much, Juniper, for your Super Sticker. Truly appreciate it, you. And by the way, I haven't seen you for the last live streams. Hope all is well. So thank you so much for your Super Sticker. Truly appreciate it. Uh, Jelena, here you are. Thank you so much, Jelena. And I, I've been reading all your comments in all channels. Including the health channel. So I just read your comment this morning. So, so thank you so much for your Super Sticker. And of course, I hope I am contributing to your knowledge and to all of you, because that's the whole reason why I'm here. No, uh, what— as I said, I gave up a full-time teaching position to do this because I believe in this. I believe in it. So, so I want to thank you so much, Jelena. Appreciate it. KL, here you are, man. Thank you so much again for your super sticker. Truly appreciate it, as always, as always. Thank you so much. Ah, there are a lot of us here today. Great, great to have you, because your time means a lot to me. So, so I'm gonna scroll down to see if, uh, Uh, oh, hello to you, Valentina D. Good to see you. Uh, I'm scrolling down just to, to see if there are any questions. I'll take— I can't wait for us to reach the 100, uh, supporters or members because I'm gonna do that, uh, Q&A, but I'm also gonna do that, uh, surprise because I promised And, and, uh, it's just I have to do something. You, you, you, you all understand how it works, right? I have to do something for the members and the supporters. So, and that's one of the things I figured I'm gonna do before the whole world knows about whatever. And that's the reason why I wanted to do that. So, so let me see if there is any question and I'll take, uh, one or two, uh, before I leave. Oh, David K, I do see, uh, a question from you. Here is David K. Question, Dr. Walalou, can you discuss what you think of Israeli claim that the hospital in Gaza was struck by misfire of Palestinian rocket? It seems highly unbelievable to me. Yeah, one thing about conflicts like this always, I mean, I mean, we've seen it in Ukraine. You all remember Zaporizhzhia when it was attacked to a degree and Russia had to step in and take over. It's because Ukrainians were saying, oh, it's the Russians that firing on, which we all know it was a lie. We all know that, for example, the missile that landed in Romania, it wasn't Russian, it was Ukrainian. Israeli will do the same, and I will say it, Israel will do the same. And again, please, please, please, when I say Israelis, I am referring to the government, not the people. Make sure, please, to separate the two. Yeah, they are saying that, no, no, it wasn't a misfire because that was strictly sort of, that to me is guided. Anything that is that specific, precise is guided. Second thing, if you hear the sound, the sound sometimes can tell you the difference. So, so I won't buy that argument for what Israel is saying. They violated the international law, and in my judgment, an investigate— pardon me, an investigation by the ICC will have to be launched immediately, not next year, not 2 years from now, immediately. And if it's proved that it was the case— and by the way, journalists will have to have access. As a matter of fact, Israeli soldiers now are targeting journalists. Why? Why are you targeting journalists? You don't want the truth to come out. Straightforward. That's the way I see it. So short answer, I don't buy their arguments. So let me see if there is another question. And I'm scrolling down here. I can't wait to do that exclusive Q&A because that would be just Q&As. I'm not going to be, uh, doing any analysis whatsoever, and I'm going to be doing the Q&As. And when I do the Patreon, guys, when I launch it, I am going to do about 30 minutes conversation, uh, just my time with you to talk about whatever you want to talk about. Okay, let's see here. And I'll be working on, uh, yeah, you're right, I think, I think, you're absolutely correct. I, I know you're probably referring to David K, but you're right, is the same case now in Europe. What's wrong with Europeans? European lost. Their moral compass per se. Europeans are nothing but a vassal. There's nothing left in European leadership. There is no leadership in Europe. There are still, you take for example, the Prime Minister of Hungary, Orbán, still somebody who takes stand because he's pushing back against Europe, the EU that is. But for the like of Ursula von der Leyen and Olaf Scholz and Sunak and Macron Yeah, those are useless. Those are useless. They're really useless. And, and again, it's up to their people to decide. Or Canada, for that matter. Australia, New Zealand. I am watching. I am keeping an eye to see, uh, uh, when I get forward into— but before the end of, of, of, of the month. So, all right, let— I don't see any here, so I'm going to, guys, sign off here because I have to go prepare some other stuff, uh, see exactly what you need to be aware. Just remember, remember to join me tomorrow for the, uh, interview with, uh, Jassar. I'm gonna have that great interview with him, so And already posted his. Oh, Jack, I saw— here's Jack Robert. I saw a question: will a war be US, UK, Israel, France, Germany versus Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon? Yes, Jack, that is a good point, and it will be. Because when you think about the West, you know, uh, US, US gonna force— and I use the term force, you know— first it's obedient Germany and France, uh, especially UK. France, uh, but given the decision of Macron now to ban the demonstrations, it tells me where things are. Because Macron doesn't have to worry about this. He's not running for office anymore. They only, they only run two terms, 7 years each. So, so yeah, this is what I'm saying. It will be widened. The conflict will be widened, and it won't be limited to just Gaza and all that. And Israel will be in the midst of it. And if we are dragged into that That will be no different than what happened back in Cambodia and Vietnam when France, you know, we got pulled into something like this. And of course, what his name— I don't know if he died or not— Henry Kissinger did to Cambodia, which nobody can forget that dark history, uh, the human, the human suffering that the Cambodians suffered. I was there in Phnom Penh at some point and I asked some, uh, elderly, but it was hard, the language part and all that, but I could just see see the sadness on their faces. How could they forget? So, so the short answer, yes, Jack, I do see this, especially when it comes down to those four countries, or, uh, three— Iraq, Syria, Lebanon. Why? Because that's most of where the factions are that are financed and trained and supported by Iran. It's the new reality. We created those dynamics when we invaded— that was invaded Iraq. That was the argument I was making back then. You do not want to invade because you're going to change the landscape that not to your likings, and that's exactly what happened. So anyway, guys, I hope you find this video informative, and I, uh, if this is again your first time here, please make sure to subscribe. I would greatly appreciate it. As always, remember, geopolitics impact your daily life in more ways than one. Till next time, bye-bye.