The US is Desperate for a Deal with China! Geopolitical Trends

Hello everybody and welcome to Geopolitical Trends, where truth matters. I'm your host, Dr. David Oualaalou. It's always so great to be with you. I always get excited when I'm doing live, sharing time and knowledge with the community. So let me say hi quickly to our wonderful community, then I'm gonna get in into the detail. Sunky NR, that's an interesting screen name. So, but you are right, US is being ruled, run by greed. I agree. Leanne, good to see you. Rafael, as always, good to see you. YT, as always. Willie Hellman, Taiwan Still, good to see you. Um, let me share with you some housekeeping items first, then I'll jump in into the analysis about the delegation from Congress that went to China two days ago. So it makes you just wonder What's the catch? So, um, I'm gonna be having, uh, uh, tomorrow— what's today? Today is tomorrow. So be on the lookout for my, uh, conversation with, uh, my upcoming conversation with Dr. Yasser Massoud. Let me, let me share the screen with you here. So I look forward to that conversation with Dr. Massoud. Very, very Interesting fella. So, uh, I'm also gonna be having a giant Bahandari. So we are working on the time, uh, so it will— but it will be within the next few days. And tomorrow at 1900 hours, I will be having a conversation with none other than Robbie Barwick. So you all know he's always here on the show, uh, hasn't been here for a while, but he's busy. So I look forward to my conversation with Robbie tomorrow, especially with what's going on in Australia. Did you guys know that Australia is reaching out to China behind closed doors? So, so of course they're afraid of their masters. So anyway, this is what I'm gonna be, uh, uh, uh, the guest we're gonna be have, and I am also working on others, uh, down the road for next week. So, so for the— for today's topic, I will be addressing the visit by the US lawmakers which is usually a rare visit given where the tensions between the US and China. So, and the question that, you know, as a geopolitical analyst, I'm going to ask the simple question, you know, does the United States want a deal with China? Because that's the only— what would you go to China for if you are not seeking one way to break the ice, per se, with the Chinese in return for assistance or help, because we see where things are getting here. So, and this is where you're going to have to ask yourself, you know, is the US realizing finally that it has been making shortcomings when it comes down to China? To me, it's as clear as daylight, you know. Of course, uh, the analyst in Washington from think tanks from the Pentagon, from the DIA, Defense Intelligence Agency, or even from the agency CIA, the, the analysis is going to be produced will not highlight this aspect. Why? Because they won't want to admit that. So what is interesting about all this is that the visit comes against the backdrop of so many other events. So, so, and I'm gonna be listing 3 or 4 for you. I'll play a clip for you and I'll do the translation simultaneous translation for it, then we'll move into the analysis and move forward. So, uh, like I mentioned, uh, the visit, uh, the US lawmaker, uh, sort of went to the US and met with number 2 leader, Premier Li Qiang, that you see on the picture right there. So the idea is that here is what's interesting, and, and to me it's like the writing on a wall. You know, they didn't talk about trade, they didn't talk about tensions. They don't— what they talk about, they wanted to talk about the military. Another word, they wanted to have a military dialogue. Makes you just wonder, is this because of the V-Day parade? And I'm gonna get into that as I move forward. Of course, the US lawmakers are warning of the danger of a military misunderstanding with China. Well, wait a minute, can't be stating this kind of statements in the air when you are provoking China, for example, sending lawmakers to Taiwan. What are you, what are you provoking China for when we know we signed the three communiqués? Which, by the way, I'm gonna provide you a chronological history of the US-China relations, you know. Because this is also part of, uh, uh, if, if, if the opportunity presents itself for me to teach in China, one of the courses I intend to teach is the US-China relations. So, and this is the idea of why you're looking now at the US lawmakers going there instead of addressing the— really, I'm, I'm not saying the military aspect is not part of the conversation, but all of a sudden You are going and focusing on that when there have been issues that we've been creating on our part. How about addressing those first? Then we'll move on into whatever the delegation wants for. Suffice it to say that when a delegation like that goes to China, just to let you know, and this one based on a history of my dear friend Dr. Dashuan Fang, who shared with me one particular, uh, uh, uh He had a visit with a representative from Congress at that time, 1979. And he is spot on in this point that when this delegation goes to China, they're not going for tourism. You know what I mean? They're not going to hang out, whatever. They go in for some specific issues that needs to be addressed. This is no different. What makes this a rare visit, given what's been going on since 2019 during the COVID time, what's been happening, that it was no communication between the Chinese and the Americans. As a matter of fact, I was aware when the Chinese refused to meet at that time the Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, you know, uh, Cheng Hu, if I'm not mistaken, uh, he was the one which, by the way, he was involved, uh, the Chinese government came, climbed down on him for corruption. They found out and they dealt with him. Swiftly. Right way to deal with it. So suffice it to say that the trip by this bipartisan, meaning both parties, the Republicans and Democrats— this is the one in the middle here, that's the chair of the Armed Services Committee, is the top Democrat, and the other two are Republican. And there's another Democrat I didn't see the name there, so I didn't see the picture there. So And of course, as I said, this trip came against the backdrop of so many things. For example, right 2 days after a phone call between President Xi Jinping and President Trump took place on Friday, the trip came after that one because now both countries, even though I will say more so the US than China, China has the upper hand in my opinion. In my recent trip to China, I talked to some people, you know, you know, and again, for me it wasn't about tourism, you all know this, you know, because I want you guys to understand the truth as is. I asked people, and people with knowledge, and the simple question was, who holds the upper hand? They told me flat out, it's China. And this is again when announcements or statements or press releases coming out of Washington stating, oh, President Trump and President Xi Jinping are trying to seek a course out of the period of strained ties. Well, who's more leaning towards that is the Americans, because we are in much more desperate need to resolve these issues than the Chinese. The Chinese moved on. Remember what we did with the chips? Ban, what did Huawei end up doing? They end up developing their own. They don't need Nvidia anymore. So we miscalculated. Of course, the media here is going to have to mention, for example, the trade tensions, even though the delegation didn't go for that. They have to mention it. They have to mention the restrictions on the semiconductor chips, you know. And one of the key things that I believe It might have come up in the conversation, I'm not sure, I wasn't there. Has to do with the ownership of TikTok. That is a major— to me, it's a one of the, you know, if I were to advise the Chinese government, I say don't sell. Because you know who's now on the list to own it is none other than Murdoch. You know, Rupert Murdoch, who own Fox. You all know what it means. And that's the picture I shared with the community when I put a comment there as far as to what lies ahead moving forward if and when TikTok became owned here in the US. It's, it's— I don't know whether it came up on a conversation or not, but here is where the media is misleading the masses. You know, the delegation is not going there to talk about South China Sea. And yet the press release had to include that one. Here is what it says specifically: Chinese— and I quote— Chinese activities in the South China Sea and matters related to Taiwan. You know, once again, what are we beating the dead horse here? We all know in the case of Taiwan, it is part of China. What are we making this fuss about when we signed the three communiqués? You know, the issue of the South China Sea, where is the issue there? Is the issue is that the US is claiming this freedom of navigation, you know, and when the Chinese did it near Alaska, we went crazy. The Russians did it too near Alaska, we went crazy. So as a matter of fact, to my knowledge, the Pentagon now is working internally whether they're gonna release this information, and this is not classified. Just to share, to let you know, they are working on changing the language of the legal aspects of the freedom of navigation, the legality of it. That's what now the Pentagon is working on. You all know what it means. So, and this is why they had to include this particular word in Chinese activities in the South China Sea and matters related to Taiwan. So, but nonetheless, uh, the delegation is saying, you know what, we want to sort of break the, the, the ice with the Chinese because of the tensions and so forth. And the delegation, which was, which was headed by the Democratic, uh, US Representative Adam Smith— that's the guy you saw in the center right there— which they all corrupted, by the way. So, so I don't, I don't care. They all corrupted. The whole Congress is corrupted. So now when you think about Adam Smith, Adam Smith's former position was he was the former chair and current top Democrats on the House Armed Services Committee. Armed Services Committee, like I told you last time, three entities, I— three, uh, subcommittees or committees I listen to in Congress. The Senate, that is the subintelligence committee, the Armed Services Committee, and the Foreign Relations Committee. And to me, for not only learning, but also it gives me an idea as to what lies ahead regarding possibility of, of, of policies that the US government is going to embark on. So, so, and here is what Adam, uh, Smith said, and I quote, we can both acknowledge that both China and the US have work to do to to strengthen that relationship, which should not be— what?— 7, 6 years between visits from the US House of Representatives. End of quote. This is what Adam Smith told Premier Lee Kiang, you know. Well, if I am to say this, and by the way, just to let you know, there is a tension regarding this trip that just took place between these members of Congress and Donald Trump. Because this has nothing to do with the approval of Donald Trump. Congress does not need an approval for Donald Trump to do this. But Donald Trump is furious for that because even Donald Trump himself is playing both sides. You remember in 2019 when he stated, and I'm paraphrasing here, you know, see how tough I am on the Chinese? It's all about the damn politics here domestically. Speaking. So, so I'm going to be playing a clip for you. I'm going to do the translation, then I'll move on with the conversation here. So let's take a listen. And I'll be doing the, the translation as we move, we move on. Three leaders that are opposed to the US have been gathering in China. I've been getting together on the same stage in a major event that is in front of the world and in China, and this in a parade where the exhibition of lethal weapons have been displayed. The Russian president, the Chinese president, and the North Korean president. First time ever that the North Korean leader is attending this event, in regional events that included so many other attendees. Not only that, he also had a chance to shake hands with other world leaders. And this is in— during a military parade, one of the biggest in China's history. And this is in commemoration of the 80th anniversary of the defeat of the fascism or the Japanese imperialism. The parade was dazzling in true sense of the word. And the President Xi Jinping addressed the troops from the vehicle. And he said that— this is what President Xi Jinping said— the renaissance and the rise of the Chinese nation cannot be stopped. Take a look at these clips. By the way, the sound belongs to the Chinese military because that's their video. So I just want to give credit where credit is due. And this played through Al Jazeera, which we also— I give credit to. By the way, uh, this missile you're looking at, DF-61, this one, this is the new level of the ICBM China developed. 15,000 kilometers. You know, usually the range for missiles from that part of the world to hit the US is about 11,920, to my knowledge, uh, uh, max of 12,000. This one here is 15,000. Impressive parade with the precision and the discipline. And in this parade, for the first time, the Chinese exhibited a strategic nuclear triad. Which means basically 3 launching platforms: air, sea, and land. To give it— to give meaning— China, that is, the ability of a bitter deterrence. In other words, countries will have to think twice. This parade cost about more than 36 billion yuan, the equivalency of $5 billion, approximately 2% of the Chinese defense budget of this year. Okay, I'm gonna stop right here, uh, because that's all it is for this particular thing. Uh, one thing is sure is the idea of when you saw the planes, you saw the missiles, and you saw, uh, I think the submarine came up later on, the version of it, you know. That is when he said the, uh, the nuclear triads. That's what the term we use in the US in English here, the interoperability, meaning the land, sea, and air all of them converging into one operation, which requires a lot, a lot of, uh, sort of, uh, uh, coordinations and so forth. This is why it was very, very impressive. Now, to me, here is where it comes all this. This is one of the reasons why the delegation wanted to address with the Chinese, we need to get in into the conversation regarding the military aspect. Is because they saw what China displayed. You saw this, I don't know, to those who saw the parade, uh, there were some drones, types of drones. That one will make an MQ-9, uh, sort of, uh, like a child's play. Those are very, very advanced, the Chinese that displayed. So, but you all remember sometimes with the trips of the lawmakers, they will do something like this, then they'll go on and agitate and provoke the Chinese. What am I referring to here? I am referring to how sometimes trips by US lawmakers will include also a stop in Taipei. So which you and I know, you know, Beijing claims that— it's not claims, Taiwan is part of China, simple as that. So, and I, if I am to use history as my guide, I'll take you back to 2022. When Nancy Pelosi at that time led an entire delegation, yeah, an entire delegation to Taiwan as part of wider Asia tour. Why was she sort of provoking the Chinese for? It's because to China, and rightly so, they feel like, you know, it's infuriating. In other words, you don't respect our sovereignty, you don't respect the agreement you signed with us. And that is why I had a t-shirt made with this particular video saying, can you trust the Americans? So, and of course, Nancy Pelosi wasn't the only one to do this in 2022. A year later, none other than Michael McCaul. Michael McCaul was the chair— a man of the House of Representatives— of Foreign Affairs Committee. He made the same trip to Taiwan once again. What for? So, and one, this is again why I am convinced the idea of if we are to say we want to cooperate with the Chinese, but we turn around and provoke them, that just doesn't make any sense. Liking this video so far? Don't just be a watcher. Go ahead and hit the like, share, and subscribe button. And don't forget to tap the bell so you will not miss any of my videos or live streams. This way you will be supporting a channel that stands for the truth and objective reporting. The choice is yours. Thanks for your support. As I mentioned earlier, I will be providing you— we're gonna do a little bit of history here because it's very important to understand the stages of how the US-China relations have evolved over the time. And as I mentioned earlier, I, I have— so I am sort of thinking, when that time comes for me to teach in China, one of the course that I intend to teach, assuming the institution will allow it and agree to it, has to do with the US-China relations. Why? I do believe the upcoming next generation of leaders inside China, the students that is, needs to understand that this is the— US-China relations is the single most important relationship that will define global affairs for the remaining of the 21st century. So, and how this relationship is managed and the decisions made by each side will have dramatic implications for the political, economic, and geopolitical stability of the world. That is the reason why I would like to teach that course in China, not here. I won't teach it here. So, and this is why I believe students will learn, for example, about the evolution of the US-China relations from the founding generation of the US all the way to the end of the Qing Dynasty. And of course, you have to go through the civil war, the Chinese civil war, and the rise of the Chinese Communist Party, CPC, that is, to the warming of the relations under President Nixon and China's subsequent reform and opening period. So, and to me it makes more sense. This is where the importance of history, addressing this history, in my opinion, will allow students to apply the theories learned in international relations to not only, and the way I look at it, because this is what you wanna arm students with the knowledge that will make more sense to them, will not only help them frame the challenge faced by both nations, you know, but also provide a discussion about the current challenges in this particular relationship. That, that's to me the way I see it. So, so, but anyway, I am working on that one. In due time it will happen. So, so let's go now to the time chronological, and I'm going to go all the way back to 1940. 1949. And briefly, I'm not gonna detail much. I'll provide you the link for this, and, and we'll just go from there. So, uh, now the way you have to look at it is 1949, that's when the separation happened. This is regarding Taiwan and China, but at the same time, there is, uh, uh, the idea of thinking in terms of, uh, where this relationship or how it evolved. So 1949 all the way to 2025. And once again, I am going to do this very, very, very briefly. So, so you think about the United States and China. So sort of it's the most complicated bilateral relations that exist. And since 1949, yeah, '48, '49, actually, the two countries have sort of entangled into periods of tensions, you know, sometimes cooperation, sometimes the tensions and the tensions, or the cooperation revolved around the trade, the climate change, and one of them has to do with Taiwan. So, so when you think about October 1949, and that's when the People's Republic of China was established, so this is when you think of the Chinese party leader at the time, Mao Zedong, established the People's Republic of China in Beijing on October 1st. And of course, you all know the history of it, and I'm not going to get into the details. Suffice it to know at this period that the United States, which backed the Nationalists against invading Japanese forces during World War II, supported Chiang Kai-shek's exile. Of the Republic of China, his government, to Taipei. This is what you need to understand, and this basically set the stage for several decades of limited US relations with mainland. Fast forward to 1950. What happened in 1950? Of course, you think about the Korean War breaks out, you know, and that in itself, of course, the Soviets backed North Korea at that time, which enter the South Korean on June 25th. And the United Nations, which is to me, it's toothless anyway, uh, the United Nations and the United States rushed to South Korea's defense. On the other hand, China in support of the Communist North Korea. That's what they did. So, and of course, when the, uh, uh, US, uh, and South Korean troops approached the Chinese border As many as 4 million people died in the 3-year conflict until the United Nations, China, and North Korea signed an armistice agreement in 1953, which, by the way, technically the war has never ended. So move to 1954. Why is this important? Because this is the first Taiwan Strait crisis that took place, and of course it was none other during the the, the tenure of Dwight Eisenhower. Who's the one who lifts at that time the US Navy blockade, uh, of Taiwan in 1953? So, and that's what led Chiang Kai-shek to deploy thousands of troops to the Kinmen and, and Matsu Islands in the Taiwan Strait in August 1954. So And of course, the mainland People's Liberation Army, PLA, responded by shelling the island. So of course, Washington at that time signed the Mutual Defense Treaty with Chiang Kai-shek's Nationalists. So, and in the spring of 1955, the United States threatened a nuclear attack on China. And that April of that year, 1955, China agrees to negotiate, and they did, but claiming a limited victory after the Nationalists withdraw from the Dachshund Islands. So 1959, very, very important. Of course, why, why is this important? Because that's where the tensions were, uh, arose in the other side, in the Tibet area. So 1964, Why is that important? In 1964, that's when China's first atomic test— because they had to, because when the US threatened China with the nukes, Chinese didn't, didn't have to. It didn't— doesn't take genius to figure this out. You have to. So China joined the nuclear club, a club, in October 1964, uh, when it conducted its first test of the atomic bomb. 1969, Why 1969 is important? That's when the Sino-Soviet borders conflict erupted. So of course, when you look at history, and again, I'm just providing you a brief snapshot on this, the differences over security, ideology, and development models strained that relationship between the Soviet Union at the time and, and China. And of course, given how things were inside China, it It didn't help matter, and that is why the disagreement culminated in border skirmishes in March of 1969. So, and that— excuse me— and that, and it's Moscow replaced, uh, uh, Washington as China's biggest threat, and the Sino-Soviet split contributes to Beijing's eventual rapprochement with the United States. This is one thing that we are working just to— the reason why I share history, and again, to make a point for you, this is why we are now trying to figure out a way of how to separate Russia from China. It's not going to work this time around. It won't. There is no way. There is no way. Why? Because the geopolitical landscape, the global one that is, has shifted in a different direction from what it used to be. Back during this era. So move to 1971. This era is known for what was known in, in the, in the political circles as the ping-pong diplomacy. That was, was known for, and this is what the first sign of warming relations between Washington and Beijing. So, and of course, China's ping-pong team invited members of the US team to China on April 1971. That's when, April 6th to be exact, uh, 1971. So, and of course it was one of the events for propaganda, and so the US Washington end up sending journalists, uh, also, uh, accompanied the US players, and among the first Americans allowed to enter China since 1949. What is interesting about this era here, and I'm going to show you a picture here. What is very interesting about this era is when Kissinger— so that's what's important about this— in 1971, to be exact, in July '71, uh, back then, uh, Henry Kissinger, Secretary of State, made a secret trip to China, and shortly thereafter, the United Nations recognizes the People's Republic of China. That's why endowing it with the permanent Security Council seat that has been held by Chiang Kai-shek's Republic of China on Taiwan since 1945. So, and to me, if the UN is doing this, you know, right there around the world, and the whole world is saying this, that means if you are recognizing, if you are recognizing the, uh, the, the People's Republic of China as the main representative and the sovereign state. So removing Shanghai Cooperation Organization, because if you remove that, that means it's not a sovereign. If it's not a sovereign, that means it does not have an independent state, as some claim. And this is where the trick of the US approaching this is just playing it both sides. When we see the Chinese get angry and upset, we kind of ratchet down Oh, oh, we won't go to Taiwan, whatever. The moment relations gets back to normal, we'll provoke the Chinese. 1972, of course, that's famous for Richard Nixon's visit, which he spent, by the way, 8 days, uh, in, in China. So 1972. So, and that is where the important part starts, 1972. What's important about it is that That's when Nixon met Chairman Mao, and it was not only just a meeting, it was also the signing of the Shanghai Communiqué with Premier Zhou Enlai at that time. And the communiqué that was signed, the first one, 1972, set the stage. And that's again where we don't respect agreements, set the stage for the improved US-China relations by allowing China and the United States to discuss difficult issues, specifically the issue of Taiwan. So, and that's when it started. So 1972. 1979, that is where the formal, the formal ties regarding the One China policy, because in 1979 it was the second communiqué was signed. So, and that's when president at that time, US President Jimmy Carter, grants China full diplomatic recognition while acknowledging mainland China's One China principle, which means the sovereignty over Taiwan, because Taiwan is part of China. That is what so many have a hard time and understand. I do know for fact during my days in Washington. I do know policymakers know this reality. They just sometimes for political reason, they play it dumb. Oh, no, no, no, no, no, we're gonna still can provoke the Chinese through this. But they know, at least to those who are familiar with the history, Taiwan has always been part of China. So And this is where sort of the Chinese vice premier at that time, Deng Xiaoping, uh, led China through major economic reforms. What did he end up doing at that time? He visited the United States shortly thereafter. So yet in April of the same year, 1979, Congress approves the Taiwan Relations Act. And that allowing the continued commercial and cultural relations between the United States and Taiwan. That act requires Washington— it is the wording of the legislation, this is where we play with politics— requires Washington to provide Taipei with defensive arms, but not officially violate the United States One China policy. How can you be doing, you know, yeah, you— this is not a way of doing business. This is not a way of conducting yourself diplomatically with the sovereign state. So, and we signed the communiqué 1992. This is during the era of none other than Reagan. So Reagan administration issues at that time about, to my knowledge, 5 or 6 assurances. I don't remember because I remember just reading it vaguely, but, and there's assurances, they weren't assigned to China, they were assigned to Taiwan. So, and one of them that I remember vividly is that the pledge that it will honor the Taiwan Relations Act. So, but there is nothing says about we will come to the defense of Taiwan. You know, the politicians in Taiwan are, are delusional. They are living in some fancy land thinking that should the first shot is fired, we will come to the rescue. We will not. Make my word on it. So, so the same act, the US said that it will not mediate between Taiwan and China. So what are we provoking the Chinese let the Chinese deal with the representatives in Taiwan. Because to me, to— and again, I speak for myself— to me, Taiwan is just another state. It's like here in the US, we have the state of Texas, we have the state of California. The governor in either state can say whatever, and he can enter into negotiations with the president regarding policy, whatever. But will another country comes in and interfere into this? No, because it's domestic affair, simple as that. What's interesting about 1982, that's when we signed the Third Communiqué with— we didn't sign it with Taiwan, we signed it with the People's Republic of China to normalize relations, but also to confirm the One China policy. So actually, the way I look at it And again, when I see now what's going on in Hong Kong, the development in Hong Kong— I went through Hong Kong at the airport and I found out they are building the third runway in Hong Kong. You know, I'm gonna ask you something: was there any developments when Hong Kong was still under British— I won't use the term control, but sort of the British mandate? None, none. It was till the Chinese took Taiwan, uh, Hong Kong back, and what they end up doing— it's not that China controls the whole Hong Kong, no. And I was there and I saw, they kind of letting them do whatever they want to do. It's, it's, it's sort of semi-autonomous. It's the same argument I can make because I saw in Macau. They said they just living the life, they move in with infrastructure and so forth. And improvements. I mean, if you guys see that bridge that links Macau to motherland, unbelievable, unbelievable. And the same thing in Hong Kong. China went ahead and started to invest in developing Hong Kong. They didn't control it. The same argument, because if you go to Taiwan and you go to certain areas, it's like, you know, is this, you know China will not allow this kind of setting to be. We're not talking about ideology here, we're talking about crumbling some parts of infrastructure inside Taiwan. Why? Because it was never an interest in upgrading the infrastructure inside Taiwan, because most of the money was geared towards buying weapons from the US. So suffice it to say, 1982, the Third Communique was signed with, uh, with China. 1989, of course you all know what happened, but you all know who fomented that, claiming to be this, uh, uh, the, the, the Tiananmen Square tensions that we all know how that happened, right? 1993, this is where, uh, you have the deportation of, uh, Wei Jang Chen. He was a, he was a political opposition guy. He was released or whatever, deported from the mainland. So 1996, this is Taiwan's the so-called— I don't like to use the term presidential because to me there is no president in Taiwan. To me, it's the equivalency of a governor. But anyway, this is part of what history is stating.. But the history that is documented here in the West, that's what I'm sharing with you. The wording can be very, very tricky. So 1996 was Taiwan's presidential, uh, elections that took place. Uh, of course, 1999, you all know what happened in Europe. That was when the Chinese embassy was targeted in Belgrade. That wasn't an accident, I'm here to tell you. I had a chance to read The report, the internal part of it, wasn't an accident. So, and of course, that's what NATO said, accidentally bombed the Chinese embassy in Belgrade during its campaign against Serbia. Well, first of all, why the heck would NATO be bombing in Serbia? You know, that's just, you know, Serbian forces occupying Kosovo, and in May 1999, and that is what sort of rattled the US-Sino relations at that time. Because the United States— when you think NATO, you think the United States, you know— offer apologies and so forth. But the US intelligence mistakes that led to the deadly bombing, you know, you're looking at thousands of Chinese demonstrators protested throughout the country, and rightly so. So 2000. Now I remember this vividly. I was still, I was still in the military at the time. So 2000 was the normalized trade relations between the United States and China, and that was during the time of Bill Clinton. So, and they signed legislation in Congress under what was known, or still known, as the US-China Relations Act of 2000. So And that in itself granted Beijing permanent normal trade relations with the United States and paving the way for China to join the WTO. So, uh, one other major event that I was aware of, there was not a lot of conversation about because, you know, it involves intelligence, and that was— has to do with the 2001 US-Sino spy plane standoff. I was aware of the plane that went into Hainan Island. You know, it was, it was a recon plane at that time. So, and, and so, and that's the one that collides with the Chinese fighter and we has to make emergency landing on a Chinese territory. So you ask yourself, what are we doing with the recon plane over the Chinese territory? Simple as that. So, uh, Of course, there was the intervention of George Bush at that time and expresses regret over the death of a Chinese pilot and the landing of US planes. Uh, 2005, this is where you start having sort of the tension, uh, start to emerge regarding trade. But 2005 marked this sort of strategic dialogue with China. It's exactly what the delegation now claiming to be doing, or what it did during its visit to China. So, but this one was slightly different. Why? It's because at that time in 2005, the Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zellick at the time initiated the strategic dialogue, but it wasn't for the aim of improving relations with China. That wasn't the aim. So of course, they stated— they, the American side, stated that we recognize Beijing as an emerging power. So, and he, Zelensky, at the time calls on China to serve as a responsible stakeholder. First of all, you don't call on a country to serve, you know, the country can decide for itself. That just to me shows the arrogance and superiority. Oh, we're gonna ask you to serve as— no, Chinese can decide for themselves. And again, to me, just common sense diplomatically speaking. So, but what the US wants, that is why I said it was no honesty. It wasn't about improving the relations with China. It was about China using its influence to draw nations such as, at the time, Sudan, North Korea, and Iran into international system. Yeah, because what those have in common, that they never bow to the US pressures. Still till today, Iran, after almost 40 years of sanctions, did not bow and will not bow to US pressures. So, and the same year So the same year, North Korea walked away from the Six-Party Talks aimed at curbing North Korea's nuclear ambitions. I was following that, and right there when they did that, I said, that's it, North Korea is in possession of a nuclear weapon. We dare to threaten them now. And that's exactly what happened. Right after that, North Korea conducted its first nuclear test in October 2006. So China did serve as a mediator, but it was too late for that because the North Korean at that time said, you know what, we done negotiating with you, we are a nuclear power. And that's again what I say, Iran might end up having to go the same route. So yeah, uh, 2007 marks— that's when Washington started to notice. And again, I was still in Washington one of the key topics that was circulating across the agencies within the government in Washington at that time has to do with 2007. Why is 2007, you may ask? Because that's when Washington noticed the increase in Chinese military defense spending. And I was, to me was like at that time just wondering, okay, why is this a big deal? You know, you know, look at our defense. And at that time, about— was about $450 billion, I remember. So, and China's increasing it by literally a minimum. They won't even get closer to that number. And yet we made it a priority. Why is this? To keep the narrative alive. And that narrative is, oh, we're gonna have to fear China. That's what it was. So And at that time, the Chinese increase was about 15, uh, if I recall, 15, 15, 18, 20, no more than, than 20, no more than that. So increase. What it makes more sense because at that time China was growing economically. So when you grow economically, you're gonna have to grow militarily to protect your asset. The same thing we did after World War II. So what makes it okay for us and not for the Chinese? Chinese, or any country for that matter, who could have the same outcome as China, which I don't see any other country in the world at this time. You know, forget about India, Modi's claiming, oh, we're gonna now be the, the, the hub of the global chip manufacturing. So I'll be talking with the giant Bhandari about that. So, uh, and this was very important to understand from 2007. And why is it from 2007 forward? It's important because that's when a shift was made inside Washington. I witnessed that in front of my eyes. The shift has to do with the assets from the West Asia or Middle East into Asia. Why? Because the narrative start to build up as to the next threat is coming from China, 2007. These things doesn't start yesterday, I'm here to tell you. And this is why became clear to Washington, especially in 2008 when China becomes the largest US foreign creditor. We were asking China for money, you know, that invasion of Iraq, you know. And I'm here to tell you because I know the facts, that The invasion was on the credit cards. And guess where they got— we get the money from? Borrowed, of course, from China. So, and yet look at the country here, look at where the infrastructure is and so forth. So 2010, and that's where the nail hit, uh, hit the coffin per se on the American thinking regarding China. Why 2010? Because China becomes the world second largest economy. And of course, China surpassed Japan as the world's second largest economy, because you all know what happened in the '80s. We never wanted to let Japan move. We sank in the economy of Japan quietly. So, so, and that is where China surpassed Japan as the second largest economy as it was valued back then. Back then, 2010, at about 1, 1.4, somewhere around that trillion dollars. And that was just for the second quarter of that year because it was a major, major, major news at that time. So, so, and that's exactly what came after this. That's it. All now the policies will have to pivot towards Asia, and that's where the US pivoted in 2011. You know, it was an essay at that time written by Hillary Clinton because she was the Secretary of State at the time, outlined the US pivot to Asia. So, and what the State Department at that time called for is the increase in investments, diplomatic, economic, strategic, and otherwise. That word otherwise, in my opinion, refers to tensions regarding Taiwan. So that's, uh, and 2012, this is where you start to see the rising trade tensions because we didn't like the direction where China was going. In other words, going to the top, the ladder, it is sending to, uh, to, uh, the, the global supremacy. Chinese, by the way, just to let you know, and I asked someone inside China I was told they don't like to brag. It's not like our culture. They don't brag, you know, and I could see that. You never know the person you're talking to. He could be a millionaire before you know it, but you will never know. They just like modesty. The same thing for their governments. They don't like to brag about we are number one or they even care for that. They keep a low profile. But what I was told is that, you know, the idea that we think that we are number one and China number two, the Chinese is letting us believe that, and they don't say a word about it. You all know who number one is. So, so, and this in 2010, why those trade tensions is because China deficits with the US, rather deficits with China at that time reached about $270 billion. Just think about it, think about it. Most of our debt held by the two countries, China and Japan. So, so, and this is again, uh, where— and of course, 2012, it was the major, uh, the 18th. As a matter of fact, that book over there, you see right there, was given to me by a dear friend of mine I'm reading all the, the, uh, the, the statements, uh, by President Xi Jinping as far as his vision from that time, 2013. Very, very impressive. And I'm still reading, it's a thick book. So, uh, 2012, that's when the Chinese new leadership comes in, and that's where President Xi Jinping came to power, 2013. And it was the right after that, the summit, uh, uh, between President Xi Jinping and Barack Obama at that time. So, uh, what else after this? That's about it. Those are 2015, uh, sort of, uh, uh, the US issued warning to China over South China Sea. That's just once again doesn't make any sense whatsoever. But this is again, you don't take it lightly, is because the Pentagon is working on changing the legal terms of the freedom of navigation, so-called freedom of navigation. So, uh, 2017, you all know, marks when Donald Trump affirmed— here is the key— Donald Trump in 2017 affirmed One China policy after raising doubts. You know, Trump, you don't know with Trump, you know, because Trump is not, you know, doesn't possess depth when it comes down to understanding geopolitics, international relations, international security, or even how global affairs— when it comes down to dealing with other countries, Trump is not equipped for that. Yes, he deals with business in his own way, whether in an honest way or not, ain't my place to judge for that. So, but suffice it to say that Donald Trump says he will honor— this is back in February 9th, 2017, he said that he will honor the One China policy in a call with President Xi Jinping. After— that was just after winning the presidential elections, meaning Trump winning the presidential elections. And Trump breaks with establishing practices by speaking on telephone with Taiwanese president at that time, Tsai Ing-wen. Which, by the way, still her PhD is still questionable. I know there been some court issues. I have documents in one of my other laptops. I got a few, uh, the document I got it from the university, the LS, the, uh, London School of Economics, when it says he pursued that. And I pulled up all the record and I did find a dissertation, but it was no confirmation of who the committee chair or the members of the committee. To those who go through the PhD process, you know what I'm talking about. Which means, in my opinion, it was never, never conferred. But for some other— I don't know. Because when I was in Taiwan, it was one particular individual demonstrating in the street holding a sign, and it says, Tsai is a liar, she never hold the PhD. And I remember I did a live stream for you about that from Taipei. So, and, uh, and that's when you started to think in terms— now you start to question the commitments of the US regarding the One China policy. So, so, which, which, by the way, Washington has adhered to for 4 decades. So So, and, and this particular policy is that the United States will maintain its formal ties not with Taipei, it's with Beijing, it's with China. So at the same time, it could have a relationship, an official one, with Taiwan, because when you have members of delegations of Congress policy makers going to Taiwan on an official visit, that's problematic. So, and 2017, the same year, Trump hosted Xi at his resort in Florida. And, uh, and 2018, that's where everything went down, when Trump issued tariffs targeting China. And it wasn't about China, it was about the progress China has achieved. So, uh, uh, and 2018 was another speech by none other than vice president at that time, Mike Pence, who signal the hardline approach to China. So I'm, I'm telling you, they just back and forth. And 2018 also marked a major event, and I covered it a lot. Has to do with the arrest, the illegal and unjust arrest, uh, of, uh, Meng Wanzhou. You all remember her, right? The, uh, Huawei executive, the daughter which was illegally arrested in Canada by orders of the United States. Because I was aware of a memo that was sent from the White House all the way to the, uh, that time, Dictator Trudeau's government, asking him to arrest her illegally, you know, unjustly. So, so, uh, and, and that created the problems between the relationship. Uh, of course, 2019, Huawei had the right to sue the United States. I don't know what came out of that legal lawsuit. So, uh, the same year, the tensions regarding trade intensify. So, and that is where, when we couldn't compete with the Chinese, we start to figure out just whatever. Like, for example, we have labeled China in 2019 as a currency manipulator, you know, just because we couldn't compete. So, and that is why led to the demonstrations in Hong Kong, you remember, 2019, because Trump signed the bill supporting Hong Kong. Well, you all know how that happened. So even those who were arrested, uh, declared that they were funded by entities from the United States. So, uh, what else, you know, COVID in 2019, I'm not going to talk much about that one. And And in 2020, Trump ended Hong Kong's special status at the time. What else? One thing that I remember, Pompeo used to be Secretary of State, former CIA director, which was a Chinese hawk. I mean, I'm aware of his approach to China, sort of declared publicly Oh, our engagement with China failed. That was for a reason, so to keep the narrative going, and that gives justification for neocons and hardliners in Washington to keep pushing. This is why Trump is doing what he's doing, because Trump has no say into what's going on. And this is why Trump ramps up pressure as transition looms, only to say, see how hard I am on China. That's all it was. So, uh, and of course 2021 we came up with something that had true, uh, proved to be a lie. Has to do with, uh, Uyghurs, so-called the genocide, which was none of it in Xinjiang. You all know how it is. So as a matter of fact, I do plan on going there next year. I'll let, I'll let the community know about this because I want to see with my own eyes interview people there, but it's already been proven that it was nothing but a lie. So, and of course, Biden in '21 maintained those tariffs. And this is where the transition, the main one, happened in July 2021. And that's where the US urged NATO— it is the key. I did a video for you, for you, go on the record, check it out, 2021 video about NATO because that's what the US urged NATO to declare China as a security threat. I mean, just beyond belief. Look where China is, look where NATO is. Geographically just doesn't make any sense, but we want to head anyway. As a matter of fact, Japan is willing to host NATO's office in Tokyo. Now you don't hear much about it, but still, don't believe it. This still moving into that direction. So, and this is 2022. You all know what happened 2022 in China, the Olympics. And what did the US do? Boycotted it diplomatically. Why? Because we didn't want to see China. And we know when the Chinese get into something, they do it the right way. Look at the military parade, look at the precision, look at the, the, uh, what they called in, uh,, uh, uh, uh, in the bot. The accuracy, precision and accuracy, just how things done right. So we didn't want— because we knew that China is going to overshadow the US regarding, uh, uh, in 2022, that was Biden presses Xi, President Xi, on Russia's war in Ukraine. So we, we started to see if we can push China away or pull China away from Russia. It's not going to work. I argued in my Russia book about it. And the major event, like I mentioned earlier, 2022, when Nancy Pelosi went to Taiwan. So there it is. And I'm going to end it right here. So let me, let me go back to my analysis. I hope this history at least provides you some insights into understanding the evolvement. And that was one of the reasons why I wanted to teach this course in an academic institution in China if, when the opportunity presents itself, because I feel it is important for the next generation of leaders inside China to have a better understanding on this. And it will make more sense coming from a Western perspective, not as far as pushing the narrative this way or that way. No, no, no, it's not about that. Is about the idea of how. And for me, I am neutral. I don't— you all know me by now. I, I— it's what's objective. And, and I feel the importance of a course like that. So now when we think about the key points, I mentioned to you some key points that you need to know, and I'm going to go through them briefly here. So the three other key points that happened, uh, against the backdrop of this visit has to do with 3 items. One is upcoming midterm elections in the US. Two is gold prices. And three has to do with the People's Bank of China. So, so I'm going to detail each one of you, uh, uh, provide you at least my own insights regarding. So midterm elections in the US, why is this important? It's because that's going to define the control inside Congress But how you're gonna do that is by saying, look, we reached out to China, we negotiated, we kind of resolved the tensions that the Republicans have created. This is what the Democrats are aiming at, because the next US midterm elections, which will be held in November 2026— I know it's still far away, but it's not far in an election term season, that is. So, so the elections basically will determine the makeup of the 120— 100 20th US Congress and will be held during President Donald Trump's second non-consecutive term. They want to get ahead of it by saying, we reached out to the Chinese, we talked to them, so you're gonna have to vote for us. When in reality, both parties, the Republicans and Democrats, two faces of the same coin, the same coin, you know, as corrupted as it gets. There is not— there is no one to vote for. And again, Americans, if you are an American watching this, you are free to do whatever you want. You vote for whomever. Just look how things have turned out when people voted for Trump. Look where things are. And what's coming is worse, even with what Donald Trump is doing. So gold prices is another key aspect that you need to understand. It's very, very important to understand. Why is this important? Is because gold, uh, rose about 20, almost 19%, you know, as of yesterday. You know, you're talking about a new record level, you know. And boy, this one, it was sort of pushed chiefly by an increased half-demand in recent comment from the Federal Reserve officials. This is why it went up. Gold went up to $3,780 an ounce. That's an increase of almost 9%. So, so, and that tells you very, very important story you need to understand as to— and you link it to what China is doing. And that makes more sense why the delegation will have to go to China now, not next month not in, in 6 months from now. It's all about other dynamics. Here is what the People's Bank of China is doing. The People's Bank, which is smart move, smart move in my opinion, the People's Bank of China is using the Chinese gold market to encourage its allies to deposit their gold reserves in China. Why is this important? Because it will strengthen Chinese influence in the global financial market, and that in itself will automatically reduce the dollar dominance. A just smart move, I will say. So that is why the Chinese are moving into that direction. You have to understand these dynamics, it will make more sense to you. So, so as of, uh, yesterday, September 23rd, and that was reported here in the US by Bloomberg, a report, and I, and I quote, China plans to promote itself as a custodian of other countries' gold reserves to strengthen the global gold market, end of quote. But at least one thing they didn't know Uh, one thing that the article didn't want— didn't want to mention is that China is not gonna behave the same way as the US. Because what does the US do to other countries when they deposit their gold? They ain't getting it back. Look at Venezuela, look at Iran, look at Saudi Arabia, look at Germany. Even, even for England, stealing— still has the stolen gold from Venezuela, still have the stolen gold from India. It will make more sense to return the gold to its rightful owner. At least that's something China is not going to do, and I bet on it. I bet on it. China will not do that. But that doesn't mean China should not present itself as a custodian for other countries' gold, and other countries will be willing to do it. You know why? It's because the economic prowess of China— compare that to the US. It makes more sense. It will be a safe haven. It will be safer to deposit your gold in China than to deposit them in the US, given the fluctuation of the dollar. So, and this is why China is moving into this direction. So, and the last one, which I didn't mention earlier— there were four— the last one has to do with the US dollar. Guess what happened once again? Yesterday, the US dollar tanked by about 10%. And by the way, the decline has been tracked since Donald Trump took office. Yeah, since he took office, that is what's been noticed, that the dollar has been declining. I mean, I mean, look at just what Trump has behind him right here. Trump Gold Card. You know, all this is about Trump using the White House for to enrich himself and his family. I mean, if this is not corruption, I don't know what is. This is the difference why most countries, in my opinion, will go ahead and deposit their gold reserves in China but not in the US. So the gold, as I mentioned, the gold went down. And, and, and, uh, as, uh, there is a— his name is Paul Graham. Paul Graham is involved with the, with the poorer and combinator. He's the co-founder of this company, and he said, and I quote, you are becoming poorer You know, referring to the Americans, you know, because now, as of literally yesterday or the day before, Americans now need an 11% increase in a net worth just to maintain purchasing power following the dollar's significant decline since President Trump took office. Let me repeat that, especially for my American audience. We, all of us, not just you, we, all of us Americans, we need about 11% increase in net worth just to maintain purchasing power following the dollar's significant decline since Donald Trump took office. But again, that's what people voted for, so they deserve what is happening to them. So, and that is how, uh, now you are seeing, uh, the two countries, China and the US. This is why the delegation went. The delegation didn't go to China to just talk about whatever. The delegation went to China because they are concerned. They are seeing where the trajectory is going, and it's not to the US favor. You know, media here is not going to disclose this truth to the American people. Even some, uh, social media platforms, they won't want to disclose this, you know, whether they are being sponsored by the government, it's their prerogative. I don't care. But the idea is, you know, you don't hear truth as much as you ought to be to understand why the Chinese now are going for the gold, why the US dollar is going down. And why this delegation end up going to China, not waiting for Donald Trump, even though Donald Trump said, you know, I'm gonna be meeting with Xi, President Xi, soon at the beginning of the year, if not sooner. So, you know, Donald Trump wanted to show and give a hint to Beijing that, you know, I am trying to work with you here, whatever. So within reality, you, you can't trust Trump. You can trust. It was an article written by Muhammad al-Manshawi. He's a researcher and a writer, specializes in American affairs, really did a good job on one article. I'm gonna share it with you later on. And basically, uh, what he is arguing is that US policy circles were shaken. And why they were shaken? To watch what happens when, for example, the, the China displayed the weapons of advanced military systems. So, and that in itself has sort of caught the, the US by surprise. That's why the delegation went over there. And by the way, Donald Trump said declining now to approve military aid to Taiwan. Yeah, that's what he's saying. Are you going to trust Trump? You know, first of all, even if most likely it might happen, but guess why? You know why? Because that amount is only $400 million in comparison to $6 billion to Israel. So, so his argument is, you know, we just say this way we'll show a good, a good faith to the Chinese that we're not going to sell weapons. $400 million is nothing in weapon sales. But he is going with the $6 billion with the Israelis. So, and that tells you the story right there. And this is why you need to understand, and I'm wrapping this up, uh, because I'm going to conclude here. This is why you need to understand the purpose of this delegation's visit to China. So to put it in perspective for you, because you need to understand this dynamics, and I will be, uh, talking even more about this with some of my guests as I move forward next week. So hope you guys, uh, enjoy this, listen, learn something. And let me see if there is any, uh, question from you. Uh, first of all, I want to say thank you to Raj Shelley from Newport. Thank you so much for your Super Sticker for supporting the channel and the content. I'm very, very grateful to you, so I appreciate it. And thanks to all those who are supporting the channel. Speaking of the channel, uh, where is my link? Yeah, here is the link for the channel if you want to support the channel here on Buy Me a Coffee. And, uh, and I appreciate that one. So, okay, let me see if there is any question from you. Uh, uh, Lori, oh, that's an interesting comment. Uh, I wish Canada will deal more with China. Yeah, Canada is gone, sad to say. I lived in Canada back then, uh, and I used to think of Canada was a really a great example for the rest of the world, but it's gone. It's gone. Canada's gone, sadly. So, but again, you, you, you saw it, you know, you kind of They dug themselves into that environment. So following America is not going to lead you into the right direction. So in any event, remember tomorrow to join me for my conversation with Ravi Barwek. I look forward to that conversation. And on Friday morning, I will be having a conversation with Dr. Yasser Masoud. I look forward to that conversation. Uh, for, uh, for, uh, Jayant Bhandari, we have not confirmed the timing yet. Once I find out, I will let you know. So as always, remember, geopolitics impact your daily life in more ways than one. Till next time, bye-bye.