Tunisia's Bold Shift: Choosing China Over the West!

All right, hello everybody and welcome to Geopolitical Trends. Very excited to be with you as always. Got an interesting topic for you today, and this has to do with Tunisia. A lot of people do not know much about Tunisia. They don't know where even Tunisia is. Ask, ask some of us Americans, where is Tunisia? Most likely majority would not know where it is. So anyway, this is what I'm going to be talking to you about. Is about how Tunisia now breaks away from the West and pivots East. Are they seeing where the trend's going? Most likely is the case. If you only know the history of how Tunisia— actually, we used to have a base in Tunisia. I was very familiar with it back then, and, uh, because of the strategic location. And this is what I'm gonna get into the detail and analysis as to what China is seeing in Tunisia, and same for Tunisia, what Tunisia is seeing in China. But of course, it's because that's where the global economy is gonna be based in, in the East. That's what it is. So let me say hi to some of you first, then I'll jump in into the conversation here. I'm gonna scroll. Wow, so many of you already here! So let's, let's just go. Uh, Instrumental Fence and uh, Fin Sanity. So Turkey joining BRICS, I don't know about that yet. I'm gonna check it out. So, uh, Hissin Bisir, good to see you. Anton Wango, good to see you. Uh, have you thought about Jeffrey Sachs and Richard Wolff? No, no, I'm done with those because I reached out a couple times. I don't chase after people. I'm done. So, uh, Noel, thank you so much, Noel, by the way. There are some of you here that they communicating with me in a different way. Thank you so much for your support, very, very generous of you. I very appreciate you, Noel. Thank you so much. Uh, you wrote, Dr. O, any chance of getting Pape Escobar? I did send an email, didn't hear back. I don't know if he didn't see it or went to his junk mail. If you guys are, you know, how to get a hold of him, whatever, just let him know I'm interested and I would love to, uh, I did send— I communicate with the people but I don't hear back, so I gotta move on. So John Smith, New Zealand, as always, good to see you. Check out Vanessa B, I'll check her out, why not? In Syria, she lives in Damascus. Okay, I'll check that out. Uh, okay, uh, what else, what else, what else? Bob Tan, a new member on the channel, thank you very much, Bob. For your support. I also want to give quick, uh, thanks to Donald Jung and Sunhook. Hey, thank you very much for becoming channel members. I'm, I'm very grateful for your support. So Willie Homan, as always, uh, Hairy Lookout, good to see you. Oh, you wrote, this is the country of my parents. Wow, very interesting. Good to see you, Lookout. Hairy Lookout has been an avid supporter of the channel. I'm very, very grateful Uh, you too, super. Dr. O, Modi technically, uh, no, resigned. Yes, he did. I'm gonna do a video for you tomorrow about it once I figure out the detail what's going on. I know this has to do with the legislative part, but also there is something else that Modi was realizing things not gonna work to his way. Anyway, I'm gonna talk about this tomorrow. Uh, kuch ho hai ho hai from Malaysia, as always. Hamad Siddiq. Matt Becky, Truth Seeker, Phil from Ottawa, Canada, YT, uh, good to see you all. Tennis, greeting to you as well. The Wacky Monkey, hello. Farhad Razavi, good to see you as always. Uh, and Karakulak, good to see you as always. All right guys, let's get into this. So I'm gonna be talking about today, as I said, Tunisia breaking protocol with the West. Another word They don't want to be under the thumb of the West because we already been hearing about Tunisia is not democratic because of what their president is doing, uh, President Kais Saïed. Uh, the West is looking at it differently. Of course, you all know what it means for him. It's kind of like he's doing whatever the Tunisian people wants him to do. There's a lot of— it has been a lot of issues in Tunisia, and I'm going to get into that through the history given that I am very familiar with the two main players. One of them was an older guy who passed away, of course, the former president Bourguiba, and the second one, uh, uh, Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, who was very corrupted. And I was aware of what was going on, and I'm gonna get into the detail. Who, by the way, he died also. So, so we're gonna need to ask the questions here, and the questions are: does it matter? Does it matter now that, you know, as I said, I bring up issues to you or topics to you guys that will make more sense? I know this is not a, a, a top trend on YouTube or whatever that is. I care less for that. I care about the substance and I care about the quality and the— of the content. And this is what I would like you to understand, because there are changes taking place in North Africa, including, uh, Tunisia. And you need to understand where that trend is headed and why. And that's why I bring in this kind of topics for you to understand. So the question you're going to ask is, does it matter? So second question is, why would President Xi extend the invitation to, to Kais Saïed? Because it was President Xi that extended personal invitation when the other 3 other countries, United Arab Emirates, Egypt, and Bahrain, were invited for that summit. I didn't expect Tunisia will be part of it, and it did. I was expecting Saudi Arabia, I was expecting, uh, some other Arab country, whatever that might be. Tunisia, uh, Algeria wasn't invited, Morocco wasn't invited, uh, Libya is a mess as we know, uh, Egypt of course was there. And, and to me it was like a strategic move. So the question is Why did President Xi extend the invitation? Third question is, what is the geopolitical and economic angle to all this? Like I always say, guys, nothing happens in a vacuum. There is a geopolitical and economic incentive, especially when you consider, uh, uh, the, the recent, uh, conversation in Tunisia with the Russians, the The Russians were over there recently. Consider also the conversation between Algeria and Russia, and also consider what's going on with Morocco regarding the economy and finance and the, the gas, I think, from Nigeria through Morocco that might be going to Europe, which is about a $52 billion project. I, for now, it's just talk. I don't know if it's going to become concrete or not, I, I, and I can't speculate on something like that. And the last question we need to ask is, how will the West react? France is already— because remember, Tunisia used to be a French colony— France is already— France on behalf of the West, US. So this is what's important. So this is what I'm going to get into a conversation today. So, so So the Tunisian president, his name is Kaïs Saïed, visited China. Of course, that visit was very, very important. Why? Because it was a step, uh, sort of, uh, a strategic one, that is, uh, to, uh, cement and forge this kind of economic and strategic alliances with the East. I'm not talking just China. Here is what many do not know, is that right after the meeting of that The foreign minister of Tunisia had a meeting with, with Korea, because Korea now is interested also. Makes you just wonder. So, and the reason for why Tunisia is moving this direction also is because it wants to diversify its economic partners. Remember, Tunisia was always at the mercy of the West. As a matter of fact, the economic conditions in, in Tunisia, why they are abysmal— can anybody guess Why? I'm gonna ask, you know, see your answer for this. Why do you think the economic conditions in Tunisia are abysmal? Who contributed to that? And you should know the answer to this because more other countries experiencing similar outcome. So I'm giving you a hint here, 3-letter word. Oh, you got it, John Smith, you got it. IMF, the debt, uh, uh, uh, sort of, it's the IMF, it's sinking. Look, look, look what's going on right now in Argentina. It's the debt. Egypt now is about to take an IMF loan. So, so, and you're right, Harry Lel. You are right. I'm going to share it with the, with the community here. Uh, Dr. Tunisia wants to replace Italy. That is for sure, because Italy is out of BRI now. China's looking at, sure, we can replace you, and Tunisia will be far better, far better geographically. It's because, yes, both of them have access to the Mediterranean Sea. Tunisia is in a better position. Tunisia is also closer to Libya. Libya is known for what? Oil. I mean, Italy, yes, is part of the EU and all that, but you can't trust the Europeans. They go back and forth. And this is the reason why Tunisia is looking at it that way. So, and of course, uh, what Tunisia wants to do this also, not only to diversify but also attract investments from overseas. And not gonna be from the West, it's going to be from the East. And given the country's financial crisis, because the, the, the currency for the country is, is, is very, very bad economically, is not where it needs to be. So, and this is why, uh, uh, I'm gonna be delving deeper into all this. Let's get into geography first and a little bit of history, and we'll just go from there. So I'm gonna share the link with you as I always do. From World Atlas, uh, uh, Sfakas or Kassa. So there's, there's a lot of there, but let's talk about, uh, just briefly the geography of it. Where is Tunisia located? Well, Tunisia is in the Maghreb region, is known as, uh, the Maghreb. The Maghreb means that includes North Africa in this case. So you're looking at Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt in that order. So the Maghreb, that is, of North Africa. Tunisia hosts the north— northernmost point in the African continent called Cape Angela. Tunisia is located in the northern and eastern hemisphere of the Earth. It is bordered by only two neighboring countries Libya bound Tunisia to the southeast and Algeria to the west and southwest. The country has a coastline on the Mediterranean Sea to the north and east. This is why it's important to understand, it's the access to the waters. Look at the Gulf of Gabes there and the access to the Mediterranean, so you can just think strategically about the calculus regarding BRI and why China will extend this. To me, it's a strategic move. It's a win-win. Tunisia is going to win economically. China is going to win strategically and economically as well. So even though they import from Tunisia, uh, to China, very, very, very— there's nothing there. It's the other way around. So let's talk about history of Tunisia, which you need to understand, uh, to put this in perspective for you. So, and again, I'm gonna just share a very brief one, and I'm gonna post a link for you because of course I don't do history from Wikipedia. And if you only know who— are you guys familiar what happened with Wikipedia a few years ago? How he was manipulated in Washington to steer that. This is why when I do history, I look at different sources, I check, and to the best of my ability, I'll share that information with you because I am aware of the manipulation that exists within certain sites regarding this. So, so what I'm going to share with you is not from Wikipedia, it's from ThoughtCo. I'm gonna— it's by Alistair Boddy. Evans. So he's the one, the author of this, and I will provide you the link and you can go from there. So, so modern Tunisia. So who are the descendants of this, uh, of this land here? Well, the descendants are the Berber and of people from the numerous civilizations that have invaded, migrated to, and been assimilated into the population over the millennia, because Tunisia is an old, uh, uh, country. Recorded history in Tunisia begins with the arrival of— can anybody guess who were the first arrivals to, to Tunisia that founded Carthage, or Carthage in Arabic? I read Arabic, so I'm able to read this history in Arabic language, in its original language. So, but I, I am very familiar because I had a, a class about the Maghreb, and Tunisia was one of them. And so I'm asking you, who were the first arrival to Tunisia in history? Not the Arabs. No, good try, good try. Not the Arabs. Uh, they don't— they don't— came later. Hannibal came later. Yeah, think of the big players, you know. The Moors, no, before that, uh, the big players, the likes of— oh, actually, I see it, I see it. Z SG, you got it. They were the Phoenicians. Who's the one who founded Carthage, or Carthage, and other North African settlement in the 8th century? That's how far back. And this is why Carthage became a major sea power clashing with Rome for control of the Mediterranean until it was defeated and captured by the Romans in 146 BC. Yeah, that's how far back it goes. Then what came after that is the Muslim conquest. The Romans ruled and settled in North Africa until the 5th century when the Roman Empire Faire. And Tunisia was invaded by the European tribes at that time, including the Vandals. That was the first from the European, uh, continent, or from the old continent, that invaded Tunisia. The Muslim conquest started, of course, in the 7th century, which transformed Tunisia and the makeup of its population, with subsequent waves of migration from around the Arab and the— what, what is the empire that was well known at that time? Let me again check your knowledge on it. And, and, and you should, uh, you should put the two together, guys. The big empire that was at that time, remember, 7th century. What are we talking about here? And that's what makes the difference regarding, uh Ottomans, you got it. No, it's not the Roman, John Smith. It was the Ottomans. It was the Ottomans. Those the one that sort of migrated from around the Arab and the Ottoman Empire because the Ottoman was expanding at that time, including significant numbers of Spanish Muslims and Jews at the end of the 15th century. Century. So this is what's important to understand. So then what happened after this one here? Oh, by the way, I saw someone here that put a comment. Let me just see it out of respect for, for the person, because that's, you know, really my nature. It's, uh, you gotta be grateful and thankful. I don't know what it is, it, it disappeared. Somebody wrote, I, I just subscribed to the channel and I follow you on a daily basis. Thank you so much for subscribing and supporting the channel, greatly appreciate it. Uh, so the idea of thinking in terms of what came after that, well, from the Arab center, who came after that? The French. This is where Tunisia turned into a French protectorate. So Tunisia became a center of the Arab culture, which a lot of people do not know. It became a center for the Arab culture at that time and learning and was assimilated into the Turkish Ottoman Empire in the 16th century because those considered the golden era of the Arab world. Remember, the Arab culture, it was very advanced in astronomy, medicine, like Ibn Sina, like al-Khwarizmi. You know, Khwarizmi is what we have the term in English, the The algorithm— algorithm is the English terms for al-khwarizmi, who was good in algebra. And al-jubayr— al-jubayr is the Arabic term for algebra. And all those were developed during the golden era of the Arab and Muslim civilization and so forth. So it was a French protectorate from 1881 until its independence. When did Tunisia got its independence? Does anybody know? If you guys type in, in the chat box, very important to understand this historical, uh, time frames and so forth. What year did Tunisia— remember, all of them were around the same time in North Africa. Zade SG, you got it, 1956. All of North Africa, they were colonized by, uh, uh, France, most of them moved around that direction. So it's 1956, and retained close political, economic, and cultural ties with France. This is why in Tunisia, French language is the second spoken business language of business, whatever. Same thing in Algeria, same thing in Morocco. Now what Algeria is doing, I believe, and Morocco to a degree, is that they are moving into English. Wanted to get rid of French language altogether. So it's, it's of course they're gonna have— it's gonna take time for that to happen. Then comes the independence. Of course, Tunisia's independence from France was in 1956, which ended the protectorate established in 1881. Just think about it, guys. From 1881, France was taking advantage of the resources of the country. Doesn't matter what type resources. The fact that they've been holding power since 1881 to 1956. And this is exactly what happened with other African countries, and why you're seeing the push towards kicking France out completely. And what comes after this, it was 19— uh, what comes— I'm sorry, what comes after this was the emergence of The, the first president, his name is Habib Bourguiba. Now Bourguiba, uh, sort of, he's the one was the leader of the independence movement and declared Tunisia a republic in 1957. And by, by doing that, it ended the rule of the Ottoman Empire at that time. So in June '59, Tunisia adopted a constitution modeled on the French system. This is why, and I am very familiar with how North Africa is, uh, the, the administrative system in Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, uh, and that's it. For Libya and Egypt, they're slightly different. For Libya, is mainly managed under— because it was invaded by— who invaded, uh, Libya at that time? Took control of it? Does anybody know in history? I'm talking about Libya now. Who took over Libya? Because remember, Europeans decided to split North Africa. It— Italia, Italy. You're correct, L. And Egypt? Who was Egypt? Uh, yeah, you got it, Matt Becky. Italy. Italy for Libya. What about Egypt? You guys should know this. It wasn't Italy, it was England. That is correct, Francis Tango, it was England. And why am I asking you all this? To highlight to you the difference between the 5 North African countries. You know, you have the, uh, Uh, you have the, uh, the Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt, in that order. So Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia were under French control, Libya was under Italian control, and Tunisia— and Egypt was under, uh, uh, the Egyptians. So this is the reason why I wanted to share this one for you, for you to understand as to— and I have a map that I found here, guys, just to go back. Of course, this is the recent, has to do with the Arab Spring, which we will get into it soon. So, so the idea of that, the history, uh, moving forward, Bourguiba took over and centralized presidential system that continues today. In other words, the power now resides within the presidency. So the military was given a defined defensive role, which excluded participation in politics. Now became a healthy beginning at that time, starting from the independence. Uh, Bourguiba placed a strong emphasis on economic and social development, uh, especially education. And this is one of the key that I always mention to you. If you learn anything from history, look what really smart thinkers will think about the role of the economy. This is what Bourguiba did back then. Because remember, Bourguiba controls the process for a while till, uh, the— till about, uh, uh, his predecessor who was Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, who was very corrupted. This guy was the pinnacle of corruption, and I am very familiar with really what the guy did as far as, uh, uh, uh the corruption involved, to the point that, uh, I found out certain, uh, record, uh, that they kind of embezzled about like almost up to $21 million. And this one, by the way, was done under, uh, uh, not, not direct corruption. The way it was done under, it was, uh, because it was Zel Abedin, his wife Okay, Leila, her name is Leila, and their friends, and they all controlled— listen to this carefully— they controlled about 21% of the net private sector profits in Tunisia by manipulating regulations to favor their own companies. So Ben Ali was as corrupted as he can get, you know. He died. I was aware of when he fled the country Which country gave him, uh, asylum? Can anybody guess which country gave him asylum, or refuge, that is, despite the corruption? At that time we couldn't disclose it because I was still in the government. You know, you deal with classified information, you can't, you can't be breaking the law. I, I observe the law, basically. Uh, you got it, Z, meaning Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia. It was Saudi Arabia, and he died in Saudi Arabia. And I think 2018, if I'm not mistaken. So, so yeah, he was as corrupted as it gets. Uh, now the idea, just to continue this briefly here, uh, then we moved into, uh, Bourguiba president for life. Why? Because progress was made towards the Constitution. So, and over the years, President Bourguiba stood unopposed for reelection several times and was named— and this was named according to the Constitution in article— in amendments in 1974 as president for life. At that time, uh, of independence, the, the neo— the neo-Distorian party, known as Le Parti Socialiste Distorian, so known in, in English as Socialist Distorian party became the sole legal party. Opposition parties were banned until 1981. What comes right after that? When President Ben Ali took over in 1987, which by the way he's been in power for 23 years, he promised— here is the key that I need you to understand, because he cut a deal with the West— he promised greater democratic openness and respect for human rights, signing of national pact with opposition parties. What do you see here, guys? You see what I'm saying, right? What I'm seeing, right? He also oversaw the constitutional and legal changes, including abolishing the concept of president for life, the establishment of presidential term limits, and provision for greater opposition party participation in political life, but the ruling party renamed the Le Rassemblement Constitutionnel Démocratique, RCD, or the Democratic Constitutional Rally, dominated the political scene due to its historic popularity and the advantage it enjoyed as the ruling party. And of course, the survival of the party Sorafouine Ben Ali was reelected in 1989 and 1994. Uh, the reason I have to say this to you, share with you, to lead you to how the Arab Spring started, because where was the— where was the birth of the Arab Spring? Arab Spring didn't start in Cairo in Tahrir Square. Where did it start? Does anybody know? Because it was a sad story that led to that, and I'm gonna get into it soon. But I want to just have you part of this conversation here. Where Tunisia— it was indeed in Tunisia that started, not in Tahrir Square as they say or they have you believe. So, so what happened in, in the multi-party era Ben Ali won 99.4% of the vote in 1999 and 94.4% of the vote in 2004. In both elections, he faced weak opponents, and the rest is history, as you may know. So what happened basically, uh, in May 2002, a referendum approved constitutional changes And here he is proposing Ben Ali to be allowed to run for a fourth time in, in 2004, and a fifth, his final, before the age, uh, uh, because of age in 2009, and provided judicial immunity during and after his presidency, meaning he would not be prosecuted. It's funny how they use the law. And the referendum also created a second parliamentary chamber and provided for other changes. That's my point, is to highlight to you the corruption. Corruption doesn't involve just taking money. Corruption also involved the system. This is where we are at in our— in my country here. It's not about just money, it's the corrupt. Even the judge, the judge that is now overseeing the trial in New York of Trump, He's been found to be bribed, but it goes beyond. The Supreme Court of the United States is— I don't use the term corrupted, I use the term fractured. That's a nicer way, subtle way of saying corrupted. Yeah, the Supreme Court of the United States, that's supposed to be independent. There is nothing independent anymore. The, the Pentagon, the military And, you know, Americans, we Americans lost faith in the military. We Americans lost faith. And I don't speak for everybody, of course, I shall not, because it's not right of me to do so. But the majority of Americans now don't trust any institution inside the government. The same thing. Why? Because they're going through the legislative process. Did you guys know yesterday it was a vote in Congress? They voted, they passed a legislation now to sanction the ICC for doing its job and issuing an arrest warrant against Netanyahu. Even Democrats with 42% siding with the Republicans. Two faces of the same coin. And that's what I'm saying, guys, is the system, system is corrupted. To my viewers who are in Europe, you are watching this in your, uh, country, be they in Holland and Netherlands or England or, or Hungary— not even Hungary, I'm sorry, not Hungary— Italy, Italy, Germany, France, UK, uh, uh, Sweden, Finland. Is, is through the legislative process. It's no different than what it was in Tunisia back then. And this is where that issue of how corruption came to be. So, so now let's go back to our analysis about what is the big picture of all this. Why did President Xi extended the invitation to, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, well, because China was aware of the tensions that exist between Tunisia and the West. There've been tensions there, we just don't hear much about it, it's not reported openly. Why? It's because the West is pushing, oh, they need to have democracy in Tunisia. You know, of course there been some demonstrations, the, the president climbed down on certain thing. Again, it's inside their country. Who are we to dictate to them what to do? I mean, look what we doing to our citizens. I give you the case of Scott. It's disturbing. We shouldn't be telling other countries what to do when we couldn't do it ourselves. So, and this is why, uh, uh, uh, China is looking at it from an economic and strategic perspective, and it makes perfect sense. So during the invitation, as a matter of fact, I do have a picture beside this one here. That was the meeting over this. This is the president of Tunisia, Kais Saïed. Uh, what was important what took place after. This is the signing of agreements between China and Tunisia. The, the meeting between the two sides, you know, between President Xi and President Kais Saïed, resulted in a signing of economic cooperation. Notice what I'm saying, guys. I said economic, not military. Remember the way we go about doing with Philippines? What did we sign with Philippines after Marcos Jr. returned from China? What did we sign with the Philippines? Let me, let me, uh, put down— let me see what you guys can put down in the chat box just to make a point here. So yeah, what did Philippines signed with the 9 bases. Matt Becky, you're right, meaning military. You know, Tunisia is going about it differently. They're going about economics. So they sign, they sign economic cooperation agreements in the— listen to this carefully— in the fields of development cooperation, trade development, sustainable development, and modern technology. At the same time, China pledged to implement projects in the sector of health, infrastructure, energy, transport, scientific research, and tourism. What are, what are all those elements have in common? They are the foundation for a strong economy. So, and this is where The whole issue is about— because what Tunisia went through, the corruption with the— during, uh, the era of Ben Ali, it was very bad, very, very, very bad. That's why he fled to Saudi Arabia. And again, should Saudi Arabia turn him down, it's a sovereign state. Saudi Arabia can do whatever. I was aware of it. At that time. Of course, we couldn't talk about it at that time. It's because the regulations and so forth. And I admit I was surprised. I knew he will end up in one of those Gulf states. That's just, uh, the way it is. Anyway, he died. Now he didn't take any— this is what life is all about, guys. We don't take anything with us. If only people, the greedy one, The greedy, if only they can take step back and think, how long do we live on this earth? How long? The max you extend, if you take a good, a good care, or, uh, you take a good care of your health, you'll extend it to 100. If you are at the top of your health, you extend it to 110. At the end, we go out as we came in. When we came into this world, we came in with nothing, just our skin. No clothes, no material, no cars. We leave the same way. Some of us are cremated, some of us are buried, doesn't matter. We leave with nothing. That's my point. So here it is, he died, didn't take a thing with him. That's the important aspect to me. So when you think about those elements as to where the, the economic cooperation between China and, and, and it tells you right there, China made a strategic decision. Tunisia also made a strategic and economic decision. Of course China does too, but you can't compare the Tunisian economy to that of China. So the benefit will be more for Tunisia, but also China thinking big picture. Remember the history of China, how they move forward. They move slowly, one step at a time, and they don't brag about this grandiose— you remember, guys, they just landed on the far side of the moon. Did anybody know about? Because Chinese don't brag about the stuff, not like the West. So, and this is what was very, very important to understand, uh, uh, uh, uh, the idea of the corruption, uh, that, that pushed Tunisians really to the bottom of— that's how bad it was. And that led to the idea of, you know, when you put too much pressure, you know, cooker pressure Yeah, that's exactly what happened with the Arab Spring. And I'm gonna get into this Arab Spring because you need to understand the link, the big picture of all this, uh, in, in, in, uh, in understanding where this is headed. So now, can anybody tell me who this gentleman is? He passed away. Let me see. Yeah, El-Bazizi, Zaid SG, you got it. El-Bazizi. Yeah, do you guys know the story how he died, right? You know, it's because the idea that many Tunisians— and by the way This is not just about Tunisia. Most of the Arab world going through the same. I give you a quick example: Iraq. You all know how rich Iraq in oil, and yet the poverty. When I was there, I was, I was, I was just floored by— of course we caused it. We even made it worse by the, the invasion, which I argued against. And of course there is something here, a chain of command, and I know you all know how these things work. In, in, in the world of, of, of military and all that. But my argument was, you're gonna turn this upside down, let alone we're not coming out of, of it till about 15, 20 years. And that's exactly what happened. But when I used to go out inside to downtown Baghdad and certain other areas, and I'm seeing the, the slums and all that, it was bad. It was worse than what it used to be. At least you give credit to what it was before, during the era of Saddam. Yeah, he was brutal, was whatever term you want to use. So do other Arab leaders, but at least there was something that was good. You know what it was? It was the safety of the people. I was told by Iraqis themselves, Christians were able to walk in the street at night. Females were able to walk at night by themselves. With nothing to fear. Foreigners were able to walk in the streets with nothing to fear. It was safety. Electricity was always there. We turned that upside down. Well, the same thing happened in, in, uh, in, in Tunisia. So what happened at that time, and, uh, for, for Tunisia, was the idea that the economic conditions were going bad. Well, one of those things was this, uh, uh, Mohamed Bouazizi. Mohammed Bouazizi was at the time about 20, I think 25, 26. You know, he used to sell veggies on a cart in the street. You sort of, uh, uh, uh, that's making a living. So what happened is that law enforcement, the police in this case, because that's how they are brutal, not only in the Arab world, we have it right here in the US. You will think law enforcement will do the right thing. Not climbing on people. Well, in this case of Mohamed Bouazizi, it was like the guy just selling fruits or veggies to make, to make a buck for whatever, and they were harassing him. You know, harassment was, yeah, it was beyond. Now, how much can you take? If you were in his shoes, what would you do? And that's when, on that morning of December Things changed. So he set himself on fire. So it was on, on September— on December 17th, 2010. It was heartbreaking to see. So I got an image. I went into the record and to look for a picture of, of how corrupted the regime at that time. And you know what I found? That the corrupted leader back then— this is the corrupted president. This Zineb Abidine back then, want to visit him in hospital. What a, what a sham. Hypocrisy of the highest order. This is what the damn corrupted politicians do, not just in Tunisia, everywhere, you know. They don't give a damn about people like that. They would have stepped in before that happened. So, and right after that, he died. So it was very sad, it was very sad. But of course with him, because it exposed the harassment. Morocco had the same in the north when I think I remember reading a story on LinkedIn. I got it on LinkedIn, one of my contacts just sent me that. Uh, it was somebody who sells fish and I think the police— and it became major issue in Morocco and the government, central government said Why? Why law enforcement will harass average people that trying to make a living? Why not just be kind and let them? Of course they are not breaking any laws, so why will you harass them for? And of course, unknown to the Tunisians, that turned upside down. It was the beginning of the end for the regime of the corrupted guy because By the time Bouazizi self-immolation, that was the beginning of the Arab Spring. You know, Tahrir Square in Cairo, by the way, guys, came later. Tahrir Square exposed the failure of the US intelligence. We didn't know about it that it was coming at that time till after the fact. And this is where that Arab Spring took, uh, sort of, it was like a wave that took through the Arab Spring. Of course, there were other countries like Saudi Arabia, which you don't see here. Saudi Arabia, uh, uh, uh, poured in billions of dollars to quell that through money. Uh, Morocco is the same. Some other countries did the same, but the main one was Egypt because that saw the end of Hosni Mubarak, who was in power for 30 years and with the bank account in Switzerland that has a billion and billions of dollars in it. You all know what's my preference for punishment for this, right? I'm not going to say it here. You guys can type it if you want, but you don't have to. To me, that's the— that's the only way. There is no ifs and buts. But again, it's just a highlight to you. That's how the Arab Spring started. And of course the West wanted to take advantage of that, you know. Oh, it's about democracy. It wasn't about democracy. Let's not lie. Arab Spring was never about democracy. Arab Spring was about the oppression, economic disparities. That's what it was about. So, and they never wanted to show that the whole reality of it. And this is why now you have Tunisia moving into this direction with China, because the way they seeing it. So, uh, and I read some, some analysis by some analysts here, and, and one of them is by the name— you got to give credit where credit is due— by the name Ahmed, uh, Kahlaoui. Ahmed Kahlaoui, uh, And I couldn't agree more with his assessment because this rapprochement between Tunisia and China sort of, it serves both countries' strategic interests. But there is also another thing that goes to this, and this has to do with the historical ties between Tunisia and China. We all remember the Silk Road back then, but now comes the idea of the BRI. And China seeing what a best opportunity we got, Italy decided to remove itself. It's like more power. I hope— I know China thinks differently. Maybe China will let them back in, but in my opinion, and this is my opinion, I think it will be a mistake. It's because by doing this, China shows that it can be played off. It can be traded, it can be manipulated, it can be persuaded, and it shouldn't. You take firm stand. We're done with— you don't want in, you're out. This is now what led me to think about the resignation of Modi in India, you know. How will that impact BRICS? Because that's what I'm going to be looking for. It's It's not about Modi. Modi is done for. It's what it's going to do to the BRICS. So, and this is where that idea of that the orientation or the direction or the shift or the pivot, whatever term you want to use, of Tunisia to East highlights, uh, because it is driven by economics. It's not military, economics. And of course, because what Tunisia is going through is the massive, uh, uh, uh, the, the, uh, the state of the economy that is very, very bad, but also being under pressure by the West. Tunisia wants to free itself out of that. So, uh, and of course it's common sense, Tunisia wants to sort of have a part of the benefit of, as it sees the Gulf GCC countries pivoting east, it's seeing Egypt in conversation with the Chinese, is seeing how, for example, the Arab world is investing more in the east. Tunisia doesn't want to be left. Also, Tunisia is seeing the investments of China in Africa. China, uh, Tunisia will be part of that at some point, and this is why they agree into all that. So because of China's rising economic power, no matter how you look at it, it boils down to economics. This is the key that I want you to get out of all this. And of course, like I mentioned earlier, the, uh, Tunisia, uh, economy is very, very, very suffocating through financial properties. And this has to do what— with what? It has to do with the high volume of debt, and that, that of course with its currency going down. And of course this one was about the IMF loan, which was about $1.9 billion to my knowledge over 4 years. Yeah, and this because there is now the, the agreement has been stalled. I don't know why. Is Tunisia backing down from the IMF, or is the IMF putting more restrictions on Tunisia, and Tunisia said no, we're not doing it? Because that's what I found out. I found out that, uh, for Tunisia's having difficulties accessing the international financial market to borrow money, of course China's not going to just hand the stuff There is no such thing. You all know how it is. But at least the terms will be favorable with China, that it will be with IMF or the World Bank. And please correct me if I'm wrong. So this is where I see it moving forward. Now, the key strategic question we need to ask: was this a genius plan or a maneuver? What do you guys think? That is very odd. I'm seeing, uh, the number of, uh, the live viewers here, it's 130. Is it true? Is the algorithm sort of repress— pressing— suppressing, that is? Hmm, very interesting. Please, please hit the like button while you're at it. Yeah, this number that I'm looking at, guys, on the screen here as I'm talking to you, it fluctuates. It says we are about 94 people watching this. I don't believe it. I just don't believe it. So, so we don't know how it is, but it won't matter. Let's keep going here. So what do you guys think? IMF is a mafia. Chanel, that was good. Well said, because it's spot on. So, uh Uh, Harry Lukel, then keep Egypt out of, uh, BRICS. Yeah, they are, because Egyptians, I can't trust them either. So, and it's straightforward, I don't shy away from saying this kind of stuff because it concerns me as to where things are, are, are going forward. So here is what happened, is the idea that, uh, Tunisia moving into this direction because, as I mentioned at the beginning, wanted to diversify right? But also because it did not want to agree. Egypt did not want— didn't want to agree to the IMF terms. Well, we all know what IMF is going to suggest. Look, look at Argentina. Look what happened to Sri Lanka. And I even heard about Bangladesh to a degree. But Argentina, I am very, very familiar with this case. Because I was aware the first time they got the IMF loan back in the '80s. Look where they are. And soon, you know which country I'm concerned about? Soon, our neighbor to the south, Mexico. Which, by the way, I might have to do a live stream for you guys about— would you like me to do a live stream about the new president and talk about strategic vision here? So So now there are some analysts that they are arguing, well, this might be a bad move for, for Tunisia to pivot east or even to go with, uh, uh, Russia, because Russia military has been spotted in Tunisia. In other words, they agree. So is Tunisia looking to upgrade its military through the Russians, not the US? That possibility is there. Or, which I see the arguments for those analysts and I concur, or could it be this just nothing but a move by the Tunisian president to pressure the West? If you don't want to help us, we're going to pivot east, which to me will be stupid. Yeah, I will say the term, it will be stupid of the Tunisian president to be playing these games. You know why? Because he has nothing to offer the West, so he's in no position to bargain. He's not coming from a position of strength. Even if the West agreed, they'll keep him under the thumb. So that's the way I look at it. I think it will make more sense. Of course, the change is going to be painful. Ain't gonna be easy when you revolutionize your economy, when you change the structure of it. The success of it doesn't happen overnight, it's going to take time. And this is what it's going to be happening. So, and with breaking away from the West— when I say the West, I'm also referring to the European Union because Here is the thing: 70% of Tunisia's exports go to neighboring countries in Europe, but the export to China is only about 1%. Yeah, what will China import from Tunisia? Not much, let's just say. Europeans will need agricultural stuff, uh, like for example, uh, uh, oranges, veggies, whatever. That's what they will get from. But Tunisia, that has nothing to offer China as far as export. Tunisia, as a matter of fact, imports most of its clothes and everything from China. All of this, this is a Tunisian shop. All these clothes that you see here, it's coming from China because the cost, simple as that. And that is where that difference is going to be. And come the big elephant in the room, and I'm going to conclude with this and answer some of your questions: the BRI, the Belt and Road Project. So as you all know, we know the history. As a matter of fact, I am gonna be reaching out to, uh, someone I know, a friend of mine, Dr. Dashuan Feng. He just— he wrote a book about the BRI. I'm also going to invite at the same time, uh, Dr. Yang Liang. She was here on the show, you all know. I'll, I'll bring them both together if their schedule permits, and we'll have a conversation about BRI, because those are very insights, very familiar with the, with, with, with the BRI inside out. And we'll talk about this one. So, so as I mentioned, the big, uh, elephant in the room is the BRI. So, and this is where I see the Tunisians also did the calculation, of course, seeing what took place with Italy. And, uh, and it's like, you know what, this largest project in history, we like to be part of it in whatever capacity. This is why I'm thinking, for like what I talked to you about yesterday, for Hungary, it will be fine once they leave NATO and leave the EU. Why? Because they're gonna pivot completely eastward, you know, they're gonna start depending on China economically and of course depending on Russia for energy. Well, they were depending on Russia for energy for a long time because they're getting it cheap, but economically China will help, uh, Hungary. Why? Because it's going to go through the BRI. And, uh, also the consideration for BRICS. Why not? That's just food for thought. If I were advising, uh, uh, uh, Orbán, I said it's worth taking a look at. Yeah, it'll put you at odds with the EU, but it only puts you at odds with the EU if you still, uh, maintain your membership with the EU. But if you leave the EU You have nothing to do with them. Yeah, you live in Europe, so are they. Europe doesn't belong to the EU, European countries. Hungarians have been there forever. So the same arguments I will make as far as Tunisia, uh, is thinking in, into these aspects. Uh, yeah, there are those who saying, well, the proximity to the EU, whatever. But EU is not benefiting Tunisia. Look where the economy is. Tunisian people deserve better. Every human being on Earth deserves better. Simple as that. So it just— it has to be with the wise leaders that make the right decision for their people. That's the only difference. And for that, it requires requires some good— thank you. So, all right guys, I'm gonna take some questions from you and we go from there. Before, I think I forgot to mention to you at the beginning, I just heard from— do you guys know who Michael Horn is? Can anybody tell me? Let me type it for you. Oh, I misspelled this one. Michael. Yeah, yeah, Michael Horn. Yeah, anyway, just got an email last night. So I'm going to send you a website, what he does. Somebody— I was floored when I found out, and he's willing to come on the show. So, and I'm gonna reach out to him, uh, and, and we'll figure it out which location to do that. So when you get a chance later on, guys, check it out. Second thing is I'm gonna be reaching out to Dr. Mike Grupa, by the way, he just got his PhD. I was aware of it last time we had dinner in, in, in, in one of the Eastern European place here. So he got his PhD. So I'm thinking of inviting him. I'm gonna— I already sent him a note. I'm waiting to hear. He's a historian buff, by the way, someone I trust. So I'm gonna have him on the show. I just wanted to give you a heads up for tomorrow, guys. I'm gonna put a poll. And by the way, thank you for voting because it helps me out. This is for us all, uh, this is for us all, uh, sometimes I have 2 or 3 topics, uh, and I gotta figure out which one to do. So I appreciate you voting on this quickly. I have now 2 that I need to decide on. Do you guys want me do a, a livestream about the new Mexican president, or you want to do, do, uh, or you, or you want me to do livestream about the resignation of Modi? And what it means for the big picture. So I'm gonna put this, uh, that is correct, Chanel, that's what he deals with. And, and this is not on the top of his head. This is somebody who spent the last 40 years of his life dealing with this. Uh, indeed, Matt Becky, yes, he is from Poland. Dr. Grupa, he is from Poland. So So anyway, this is what I'm going to share with you, and I'm going to put it on the screen for you. All right, let me see, uh, first question from Matt Becky here. Question: next week or so, the Iranian candidates will be confirmed. Would you do a live on it? Yes, I could. You know why? You guys know who now submitted his paper for the presidency? Can anybody guess? For Iran? Oh, that's a big, big. The West will be very concerned. Israel will be very concerned. Let me see in the chat box what do you guys type in. Type in here who just submitted the paper to run for president in Iran. And by the way, who— he was president before. Oh yeah, Chanel, you got it. Ahmadinejad. And you know where he stand regarding Israel and all that stuff. I ain't gonna care where or, or whatever. As a matter of fact, my thinking that if he comes to power in coordination with the Supreme Leader, they're gonna move forward with the nuclear capabilities. That's, that's the way I see it. So, so yeah, I'm gonna take a look at it, Matt, and, and we see what we're gonna do. Uh, let me take another question. Uh, question. OMC, good to see you, MC, by the way. Hope everything is good. Uh, I haven't seen you for a while. OMC and I, we were communicating offline here, so that's why we didn't see him for a while. He was dealing with some, some stuff, and now, now he's back. So good to see you, OMC. Question: why do you think Arab Spring started in Tunisia rather than the Pentagon? Uh, no, no, no, it started not the Pentagon. The Pentagon, uh, the Pentagon, the whole US policy is nothing but reactionary. I was in DC, I was in the thick of it all, you know, from 9/11 forward, you know, it was always reactionary. So the Arab Spring, because of the economic conditions and what happened in Tunisia, uh, sent the message to the rest. This is where you You're seeing now the corrupted Arab leaders couldn't do squat about what's going on in Gaza because they're too weak, and the Arab people are so frustrated. Yeah, so in my opinion, uh, it's not in the Pentagon. Pentagon, uh, where the intelligence community in the US was shocked and surprised once we found out what's going on in Tahrir Square in Egypt. Didn't pay attention to what took place in, in Indonesia at that time when, uh, Boazizi, uh, uh, set himself on fire. So, so that's why I stick with my conviction. And again, I could be wrong, but the way I believe in it is that it started in Tunisia, not the Pentagon. Uh, Patrick, uh, should IOC ban Israel from the Olympics like they banned Russia? IOC is a joke. Yeah, they don't have the will. There is no political will to, you know, gone the Western institution that's supposed to stand for the rule of law or whatever term you want to call. Now everything is exposed. That is where the problem is. So yeah, they should, but I doubt it. I doubt it. They will, they will do that. So All right, let me, uh, Francis Tango, I can't open it again. Oh, the link, uh, okay, I'm gonna put it in description. It might be easier to do it that way. I'll put it in description later on. All right, Truth Seeker question: will BRICS allow Japan and South Korea or the G7 countries to join? Uh, that won't be a smart thing. I don't think— I think the element of trust is a key. I, I, I just, uh, I mean, I just don't— I don't see that. I don't see that. And even if they do, they're gonna be undermining— it's already the policies, internal policies within BRICS are being undermined. And this is why I'm thinking, uh, about the resignation of Modi. Not about India. It's what's going to do to BRICS. The next PM, what will he do, or what will she do? We don't know. It's, it's because for the West, they found a lot— like the door is, is ajar, cracked, from where, from which to influence the decisions within BRICS if you use one of its members. So if you put a— you G7 country What do you expect? Are they gonna honor what the East wants to do? For example, in the case of Russia and China, wanted to sort of put justice, fairness around the world. No, they're not going to do that. So that's why I don't— he won't be— or Japan and South Korea, they wishy-washy, they flip-flopping, you know, like what Carl said, and he's right given the history of how China deals with those two countries and how those two countries also flip-flops depending who's in power. So, but at the same time, personally, I wouldn't want to deal with a person like that. No, no, no, no. If I don't know where you stand, it's like you guys here in the community. I know where you stand. You don't expect me to be sugarcoating things for you. Because that's what you will expect from me, and that's what I will expect from you as well. You will not be thinking that I'm going to tell you what you want to hear, because that is what I will expect from you. And the same on your part, that's what you will expect from me. So we know where you and I stand, and that makes it clear as far as communicating. I will apply the same to this concept of the Japan and South Korea It's, uh, till Japan sort out its own domestic, till South Korea— because how can you do this when you still have majority of foreign troops on the soil? What for? And if it's only an indication, is nothing but you don't have any sovereignty whatsoever. And now the Philippines is joining that crowd. So that's, that's where I see the problem. All right, let me see one more question here. Uh, oh, Matt Becky, I already answered that one for the presidential stuff. Yes, and I will do that. I wrote a book about Iran, so I kind of, uh, uh, uh, left the door open for the idea of what lies ahead for Iran. So, and by the way, guys, those books, do not, do not buy them from Amazon and all that stuff. I am gonna— I am working on figuring out how to have them as a download. And of course I have to put some, uh, whatever, whomever is going to host this, I have to pay them some percentage to this. But I am gonna put these books but at a lower price. There is no way, there is no way I want you to pay $130 for it. That's too much. But again, it's the publishers that decides on those because it's not your average writing. This is not for everybody, and not— no, no offense to anybody, but it's more academic and all that stuff. So, okay, one more question. And by the way, I need to share with you one comment I received from one of the viewers, if I can get to it. Yeah, one of our viewers, uh, Cheryl Lee. 7224, uh, she wrote, and I quote, a great analysis. Note, I note, Doctor, that you appear to work nonstop for our education. Thank you so much. You're most welcome. And yes, I do work nonstop, sometimes even on Sundays. Usually I don't do live, but I am behind the screen here working on figuring out the good topic that I need to bring you to keep that knowledge moving forward. Because you know why? That's my commitment to you. And, and to me, if you don't give 110% in whatever you believe in, then don't do it. Don't do it. So, and this is why I am very grateful to you for your support. I, I thank Abbas, Abbas, for your PayPal. I'm very, very grateful to you. And I thank those who bought me coffee. Noel, Noel and his wife, you know, I'll tell you, I'll share it with you guys because we are about transparency here. You know, they bought me about 20 cups of coffees. So that's how generous of them to that. And I'm very grateful. To me, it's, it's, you know, a kind word also does it. So, so it's the idea of what we are about in this community. And yeah, I, I do work nonstop because I remember I decide not to go back to the university and teach. So I look at this as a classroom and I am very excited because I have always been excited to teach and, and share it. And I learn from you as well. So, all right, let me see one more question and that's it. And, and I go sign off, go do a few things here. I gotta fix some stuff in the backyard. We had some tornado passing by and I gotta go clean up the stuff and put some cover and cover the veggies and all that stuff, then work on my next story for you for tomorrow. Okay, one more, one more, one more question. And, uh, I'm scrolling down here, guys. Oh, Army with Harmony, good to see you and thank you very much for your army again. Army with Harmony behind the scenes, you know, just buying me coffee. You know, same with TC Kwan, just bought me about literally about what, 10 cups or whatever. Uh, uh, actually, yeah, about 5, 5, yeah, about 10 cups or 6, whatever that was. TC Kwan, Josiah's Great, you know, uh, Boone Uh, uh, Zhuge Liang, uh, John Smith, you know, uh, Francis, I mean all of you guys. I'm very, very grateful. Question: please consider placing easy tests, essay, or assignments in the community. I want to know the difference between what I do know and what I should know. Well, that, you know, I, I have to put it for the community, Army with Harmony, because because I like to have the input. And even if I do this, it won't be in a form of a test. If I am to do it, it would be in a form of a writing, you know, but I will limit it to one page. But again, this is not about cut and paste because I will be able to tell. I used to do this with my students and I do warn them, do not, do not do that because it's easy for me to find out. And there were some good essays One of them that I remember, and I called on her and I said, you know, I need to ask you a question and I hope you'll be honest with me. Who wrote the paper? And she was honest about it. And I said, well, here's what we're going to do. You know, it's not I'm going to dismiss it. It's just I want you to rewrite it yourself. And she did. And it was no issue there. So, yeah, I'll put this for the community., and we just go from there. Okay, uh, Army with Harmony. All right, no. Oh, Francis Tango, thank you so much for your support, man. Truly appreciate it. What will happen with ICC, US sanctions? What do you think will happen? Well, what I think should— it should happen, not what will happen. What should happen is ICC should push back. You know, if the US is not a member to that, so why the heck is US imposing sanctions on? You know, if Israel is part of that, you know, you abide by the rule and the rest of the world, because when they issued the arrest warrant for Putin, everybody responded. What makes Netanyahu different? So they should push back by saying, no, we get the ruling stands. And you are not above the law. Simple as that. I mean, I was just shocked that the Congress voted on it yesterday. Yesterday, you know, what this has to do with our domestic issues here? This is an ICC issue. It shows you the Congress who is working for. Yeah, so my, my response is They shouldn't back down. They shouldn't. They should, uh, with the help— the, the ruling will stand no matter what and go from there. So if he travels somewhere, he gets arrested and turned over and put in jail and given a fair trial. We all know how it is, but no matter what, give the guy a fair trial because the credibility of the system at stake, especially for ICC. So that's what I suggest. Thank you so much for your Super Sticker. All right guys, I hope you find this very informative and I look forward to seeing you tomorrow. So I'm going to put the poll as far as the question what we're going to cover tomorrow and, and, and we'll go from there. As always, remember, geopolitics impacts your daily life in more ways than one. Till next time guys, bye-bye.