US-China: Destined for a War Over Taiwan??

Hello everybody and welcome to Geopolitical Trends. My name is David Oualaalou. So good to be with you guys. Now, President Xi has been granted a third term. What will this mean for the future of US-China relations? This is what I'm going to be discussing with you in this video. Before I launch into it, please remember to subscribe and hit the notification button so you will be notified every time I upload a new video, and thank you for your support. So here's the question— well, not the question, but to think in terms of what now. So President Xi, at the conclusion of the Chinese 20th Party Congress, President Xi Jinping started now an unprecedented third term with major checkup, you know, at the top 4 posts, because that was a shakeup. Uh, some have expected it, others didn't. I was one of those who did not expect it, especially for Lee Keng Kang. I hope I pronounce it correctly. But here's the thing, the shakeup at the 4 positions, uh, of those individuals, those are veteran members of the Politburo Standing Committee, and they were dismissed basically straightforward. You know, that includes Li Keqiang. I hope I'm pronouncing correctly, and my apologies for my— if you happen to speak Chinese and I mispronounce it. There's Li Zhanshu, there is Wang Yang, and there is Han Zheng. Z-E-N-G. So my apologies again. They are missing from the new list of the Central Committee. So is it fair now to state that the 20th Congress, the Chinese Communist Party, that is the most momentous of the 21st century, not only for China, it's for China, for the United States, and the world for that matter? And that's a fair question to ask. So if you are an analyst, you think in those terms, the bigger picture. And as I always look out for the trend, because here's a— here are the facts. And again, I'm sure you know this about me by now, I don't sugarcoat things, I just state the facts to the best of my knowledge and let you reach your own conclusion. China is more powerful than it has ever been in the last 4,000 years of its history. It has the world's largest population, the second biggest economy that may overtake the US within this decade, and most analysis suggests that will be the case. It has become the world sort of— we use the term factory, but most of everything is produced in China. So just about everything. Well, you think about it in terms of the sheer size of the Chinese market and economy. Why? Cheap labor. But the world couldn't figure that out because China became the hub. This is why I always say the wealth has already shifted from the West to the East, and China will be taking the lead, or is already taking the lead of that. And there is another thing, is that China is the second most powerful military, except for the nuclear deterrence, beside Russia, that is. China has also spent trillions of dollars tying the world to China through its ambitious BRI, the Belt and Road Initiative. It's fascinating to read details about it, which has poured— for China has poured already concrete and laid the foundation for railroads across the globe. So, so for the last 10 years or so, China's current leader Xi Jinping, you know, has overseen China's remarkable rise and has— if I may use the term, I know it sounds bad— but, and has plotted an even more ambitious future. Could this be the key to why he was granted the third term? Could it be that the Chinese people want to have stability and the political committee, that is, they saw stability is very crucial? I'll let you reach that conclusion. But make no mistake, President Xi is going to face some major challenges in his third term, both domestically and abroad. Domestically, Xi Jinping, in my opinion, and this is just my own opinion, you can take it or disregard it or whatever, the way I see where things are headed, Xi Jinping, we need to monitor the public reaction very, very carefully, carefully within China, that is, you know. I believe there is a need to address the issues of small private businesses that are not doing well in comparison to the big ones. And they are not doing well because it is a serious problem. Why, you may ask? Because it reflects the public and entrepreneurs' confidence about not only the country or the government, but the system as a whole. Then of course comes the foreign policy question. On the global stage. What does this mean? Meaning the third term of President Xi. What does this mean for the future of US-China relations? So there is no doubt, and I'm sure you know this, the relationship is bad as we speak between China and the United States. You know what former president, President Trump, did and President Biden currently is doing, continuing the same policies, shows it is not just about an individual leader, but rather a structural change in China's role on the international system, and which will be a dynamic of an emerging as an existing— as an emerging, rather, an existing power. That would be a major shift within the international system. So that explains, in my opinion, part of the tensions. So the US never experienced this type of competitor or a rivalry before. With the Soviet Union, it was defined and determined to the ideology, military. This one with China is very, very, very different. But the relationship is not in a fall free— in a free fall, rather, because the two countries, United States and China, are so linked. So economic decoupling is possible but will face some resistance, like what we are witnessing right now in Germany. German companies are sort of pushing Olaf Scholz, the chancellor, to head out to China, which he will be going next month, the 3rd and the 4th, to figure out how they can work with China because decoupling from China is not going to work for them. Well, it's no different than here in the US. As a matter of fact, I believe, and this is my opinion, that it would be even worse for us in the United States. Why? Because we depend so much on the products being produced in the United— in, in China, rather. So, but make no, no mistake, the relationship between the US and China is in a spiral downward. But there can be adjustments, like for example, maybe President Biden could meet with President Xi next month during the G20, the G20 summit which will be held in Indonesia, in Bali. So the political atmosphere as we speak is not conducive for a better relations, shall we say. But there is a tremendous need to avoid a war or any, any confrontation or clash of international economic system. And this is why sort of I am putting a big question mark as to the decision of Biden to target the microchip. I don't know if you're aware of this or not, but there's some major tensions in that sector, and Taiwan will be at the center of that, of that, of those tensions. So here's the thing, the centerpiece of this 20th Congress was President Xi Jinping's speech that is very, very, very significant because It has now underlined some major shifts in China's recent past. So if you are interested or understand what I'm talking about, you have to look again for the trend. What just happened last week? What happened last week in the United States is that the Biden administration releases the National Security Strategy for 2022. I had a chance to read it, in which there is predominant attention given to China. And let me, let me get you a quote from it, and I'll put, of course, the link for you to see, uh, or to, to read if you like. So here's the link. So the, uh, the, uh, national— the National Security Strategy for 2022 states, and I quote, We will effectively compete with the People's Republic of China, which is the only competitor with both the intent, the intent, and increasingly the capability to reshape the international order while constraining dangerous Russia. End of quote. There is a lot to uncover within this message, but you can just see the bottom line. What And when I looked at the strategy, it is heavy focused on China. Why? Because that's where the US sees the competition is coming from. Russia is a different story. So here's the thing also about what this third term means within, within China itself, the history of China. Because here's the thing, President Xi achieved now a milestone by becoming one of the core of the party. He is the fourth beside Mao Zedong, Deng Xiaoping, and Jiang Zemin. And now, of course, you add President Xi to that core of the party. It's very, very significant. Even the last, the former president Hu Jintao was not given that title. And speaking of Hu Jintao, I like to address the incidents that took place during Congress. You know, I did put a tweet on it, and apparently some people misunderstood my tweet. My tweet wasn't about pointing fingers at how the government of China dealt with the former president. That's not about that. It was about how unusual for something to happen like this. It's because Western media jumped quickly. Oh, they are purging Hu Jintao. Wait a minute, why are we jumping to conclusions? The gentleman, Hu Jintao in this case, is almost 80 years old and he's frail. So could it be health issues? Could it be, as somebody made a comment on my tweet, that he just needed to go to the bathroom. You know, we're all gonna be at that age and we're all gonna experience that, something like that. So could we have to, or could the West look at it differently, that it's a humane treatment? That even the president himself didn't say a word, didn't move, because he let the people who escorted him first will be the one to take him out to take care of whatever his needs may be. Whatever the case may be, because he did came back and cast his vote. So my point is, let's not jump to conclusions quickly. And why are we doing that to begin with? It's almost like if you, you know, other humans, other races, you know, they have the right to exist in this world as well. So why are we harboring this hatred and this dislike towards other people. Live and let live. We just— all of us just passing through. So I don't get it. It really saddens me to realize why do people or governments behave in certain way that is irrational. Anyway, here is my conclusion for you. Global security. Global security is based more than on a balance of tanks and missiles and planes and whatever else. It is built, in my opinion, on a sustainable economics and stable societies, because if you have instability, there is no there is no economic prosperity. And both of those, the economic and stability, requires international cooperation. So fighting wars over historic grievances, for example, ideologies, or even some borderline that was drawn on a map, either mistakenly, inadvertently, whatever the case might be— if you do that at the expense of ensuring that the global economy, ours included, yours, all of us, and social welfare for that matter, has always been tragically misguided. And this is where my big concern about what lies ahead now that Xi Jinping, now he got the third term, how that's going to impact now US-China relations. And I do have my own concern And I will voice them in due time as I see trends moving forward, because now I am going to be watching what the reaction from Washington is going to be to President Xi's third term. So here's my question for you for today: Are China and the United States on a collision course over Taiwan? Let me repeat this: Are China and the United States on a collision course over Taiwan? Make sure to leave me some comments and I will respond to you. As always, remember, geopolitics impacts your daily life more ways than one. Till next time, bye-bye.