US Forces Attacked! Why Now?

Hey and welcome to Geopolitical Trends. So excited to be with you on this January 8th. It's a special day, you know why? It's my birthday. So, so excited to be with you, and I couldn't ask for a better time to spend it with you guys, all the members of the community. So it's just another day for me, but it's a birthday, so of course the tribe already did a party for me, surprisingly, and so forth. So it was a wonderful time, and I am very grateful for that. So anyway, so excited to be with you, and, uh, I'm gonna see— by the way, I'm only gonna do this for a short period, a short time here, then we're gonna move on to the other location. So because there are some stuff that came out, I can't talk about this. Thank you very much, Chanel, for uh, your wishes for my birthday. Thank you, Army with Harmony, so greatly appreciated. So, uh, oh, wait, here, what did I see? Oh, here it is. Yeah, no, not this one here. Uh, where was it? You moved so fast. Uh, Full Tilt Boogie, he made it because he always— he couldn't because of work and so forth. So I'm excited for you to be here. Oh, Boon, Boon, Boon, Boon, thank you so much for your Super Sticker on my birthday. May you stay healthy. Thank you very much, Boon. Thank you, truly, truly appreciate your continued support. So yeah, you guys, type in where you are joining me from. SK, SK Wong, thank you very much and good to see you. And thank you so much for contributing to the conversation, SK Wong. I read your comments constantly. With all of you guys, no exception there. So, so thank you so much for contributing to the conversation here, because that's what this community is all about, and that's the whole reason for why I'm doing all this. So anyway, let's, let's talk about what I'm going to be covering here. And of course, I am going to add more that I can't discuss here. I'll discuss it elsewhere. So, but for now, and I'll save all my thanks for the new members for the Buy Me Coffee membership There was somebody there who bought a membership for the whole year, so I'm, I'm very, very grateful for that. And I will, uh, talk about this, uh, uh, as I get closer to done here, or do it on the other part. So, so anyway, here is a topic. What I'm going to be talking about today is the idea of what's behind the attack on US forces in Iraq and Syria. Yeah, we all know, of course, the tensions and so forth. But sometimes you have to put the timing of an event within its geopolitical context, because that's what it is. And this is the things that I can't talk about here. I'm gonna do them elsewhere. But for now, suffice it to provide you some insights into exactly what led to that and how the US reacted. And what is the legal ramifications to all this, given the status of US forces in that part of the world? Yeah, there is some legality into all this, which happens that we are violating. So I'm gonna detail all this for you. And before I— and of course, the key questions we're gonna ask, and I already typed them here, so this time I won't forget. There are the questions. So straightforward. What is the message behind this attack? Because this again can happen in a vacuum. There is a message for it, you know. Is this a sign for what lies ahead? Because usually when you go— when it comes down to escalations, we are witnessing something else on the other front. You all know what I'm referring to here, and I'm gonna detail this on my next, uh, uh, live on the other platform. So, and the third question is, will the US be drawn into another conflict in the Middle East? That's another key that we need to understand why we want to— we don't want to have a peace per se in the Middle East because it's not going to bode well for both the US and Israel. So that's just straightforward. Those are the key question, uh, uh, that, uh Uh, and I'm gonna— by the way, let me put this now for you so you guys can see it. And, and I am gonna put it on the chat box so you guys also— I know some of you have missed that one, uh, last time. I'm gonna put it in the chat box for you so for later on you guys can come in, and which we're gonna do right after this one here directly. So it's right there on the chat box for you guys. Oh, Daniela, let me say thank you. Daniela Moros, thank you so much for your super sticker, truly appreciate it. Uh, oh, T, thank you so much from Atlanta, Georgia. Atlanta, Georgia, is that correct? Right. Thank you so much for your Super Sticker. Truly, truly appreciate it. It means a lot, man. Means a lot. I want you guys to know how much I appreciate it. So, so let me get back to again, uh, where was I? Uh, let me share the picture here for you. Well, before I'll do this, this is what I'm going to be covering today. That's what I'm going to be talking about briefly here, then we will continue the conversation on the other end. So let's do a tour around the world quickly here because I need to share a few things beside the event of my birthday today, which is a headline for me personally. I'm just joking with you guys. Uh, there are some events that took place around the world. For example, uh, uh, China's largest shipping company, which is considered the fourth in the world Uh, here it is. Here is an image for it, guys, so you can see it. This is China's COSCO. This is the largest, uh, uh, shipping company. Well, what happened is that now it halts all its operations as far as delivery to Israel completely. So, and this was announced not just by China, it was announced by the Israeli newspaper Globes, uh, that it learned from a private source that the Chinese state-owned shipping giant COSCO has stopped sailing towards Israeli port. Now you would ask yourself, if that company would have gone through Red Sea, will it be attacked? Most likely it will be the case, even though it belonged to China. And the reason for that is that the other group, you know, that starts with an H, So, so silly that we start to talk in this way here, just because, you know, it is what it is. Uh, uh, that they saying anything that is going to Israel is going to be attacked. That's just their argument. So, and the, the newspaper, this Globe here, this is Israeli newspaper, uh, pointed out that the Chinese company, which is the fourth largest shipping line in containers in the world, it contributes— this company contributes about 11% of global trade. So that is, uh, that is a major— this is, as you know, Babel Mandeb, it's, it's a crucial, crucial, uh, uh, choking point, if I may, that now companies will have, or shipping lines, shipping, uh, uh, companies will have to go around Africa, Cape Guard, I guess, and, and go all the way there. Next one has to do with a major— this is to me is troubling, and this is real. This is not just an image, this happened. The door on a plane came off. That's troubling. And for which company here? We're talking about Boeing 737 MAX 9. So to the point now, as a matter of fact, the, uh, it was one country, I forget which one, Uh, it halted all its flights in Turkey, if I'm not mistaken. It halted all the flights that uses Boeing 737 Max. And, uh, this happened yesterday, by the way, because it was expanded to the rest of the world. It was only 2 days after, uh, an accident involving Alaska Airlines. You know, this is where— and that's the— I believe, I'm not certain of this, but I believe that image, that's where it's from. It was due to the plane separation of one of its doors after takeoff. That is what's traveling. So very, very concerning, and, and safety matters. So, but also start to wonder about the quality. And only this, if you only go back and watch one of my old videos that I did about China C-990 or 919C aircraft that is domestically built, And I did say in the title, is the end of Boeing over or numbered, something into that effect. That was my reason for why we're doing it that way, because China usually used to order big, big orders from Boeing. Not anymore. And who knows, I might be in that part of the world and I might hop on those planes just to do my own reporting on it. And I'll, I'll, I'm working on that stuff, so I'll keep you posted, guys, as I get closer to that date. So, but anyway, that was the whole reason for why it's, it's very important. So, uh, I have two other stories, major one, except I can't talk about them here. Very major. So I'm going to save them for when we go to the next location that I, uh, text— that I put in the chat box for you, and you see it on your screen. So, all right, let's move on, on our, uh— let me remove this one here. I'm gonna keep it here for you guys just in case, but I already— please share it with others who might have trouble getting to it or something like that. So let's get into the narrative. So what's going on? What happened when it comes down to US forces in both Iraq and in Syria? And by the way, did you know that it has been over, I believe, over 109 attacks since Biden came to the administration, came to power? A lot. So, but beside this, we're not going to focus on this. What we're going to focus on is the idea of how this happened to begin with. So, well, just as a background for those who might not know, the US strikes headquarters of the— it's called the Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq. No, now with this action that the US retaliation— because you really— US retaliates to, to— it's been attacked. Now some will say, well, it's justified. Others will say, well, wait a minute, what is the US doing there in the first place? Which is legitimate questions because we're going to get into the legality of it briefly here. So the idea of now with this US retaliating, which is a violation of international law to begin with, given the, the arrangements between Iraq and the US, okay, now this scenario is going to now put the relationship between Iraq and Saudi— and, and the United States even more tense or tenser than, than you might anticipate. So, so, and all, as I said, the US strike came in a reaction to the resistance in, uh, in Iraq. And there is a specific name there that is used for that, so I'm not going to use it here. So since the start of all this started following what started in October 7th, uh, between Israel and, uh, uh, uh, in, in, in Gaza, that is. So, but before I'll go, go deeper into all this, briefly here I'm gonna share geography and history with you because you need to know some aspects of Iraq. I spent a lot of time in Iraq back then, uh, most of my academic research was about the Middle East. Iraq is included in that conversation. And they, uh, I, I wanted to share with you— let me close this one and open this one here and share the map with you, so for you guys to see, uh, where, uh, this is. And we'll talk briefly, uh, geography, history of it, and move into brief analysis. Then I'll, I'll switch to the other place. So, but let me share screen with you here, guys. And by the way, I gotta give credit to YouTube. They responded to my appeal and said there was no violation whatsoever. So you give credit where credit is due. And I am more getting convinced now that is more of individuals causing this kind of issues here. So, uh, somebody is calling me because my birthday today. I can't answer. So anyway, let's talk about geography here. So Iraq is known officially, is known officially, uh, as the Republic of Iraq. It is a sovereign Western Asian country. You know, uh, Iraq is located in north, uh, northern and eastern hemisphere of the Earth. So it is bordered by 6 countries. And I don't know if you guys can see this one here or not. No, not this one here, not this one here, uh, not this one here. No, it's not on this map here. So anyway, suffice it. And I'm gonna— yeah, it is. You can see some here, but I'm, I'm gonna, uh, disclose all this to you. So, so it is located by Six Nations around to the east Kuwait to the southeast, Turkey to the north, Syria to the west, Jordan to the southwest, and Saudi Arabia to the south. So, and the country, uh, has about a short of 36 miles coastline along the northern end of the Persian Gulf. That's what it is. Iraq is divided into 18 Governorates. No, those are govern— yeah, not, not, not. Slow down, slow down. Yeah, right here, guys. This is the map. You can see, and, uh, some of them I'm a little familiar with because, again, I spend a lot of time there. So you're looking at, for example, Anbar Province. It's one name. Babylon, Baghdad, Basra, Dikar, Al-Qadisiyyah, Diyala, Dahuk, Erbil, or Halabja. Halabja was where I believe Saddam Hussein was from. Uh, Karbala, Kirkuk, Maisan, Al-Muthanna, Najaf, Nineveh, Saladin, and Wasi. Now you have one location there that is Kurdistan, and I spent time in Kurdistan. Kurdistan is an autonomous region in Iraq, still part of Iraq except it's autonomous. So there are some tensions once a while, uh, uh, of course that's where some of the US forces have been attacked in that part of the, the, uh, of the country. So Baghdad, as you know, is the country, uh, and it is located in the center as you see on the, on the, on the other map right here. Uh, what is it? Right there, that's Baghdad. So very, very interesting. Now regarding the history, and I'm going to leave that map on, guys, because I have only one image I will share with you later on. Uh, regarding the history of Iraq, which you need to know, Iraq is an old, old, old civilization. It goes way back. Now, it won't go as far, even in some historical record, the comparing the time frame to the same as the Chinese history, about 5,000 years old. You know, some of them here, it goes between 5,000 to 6,000. This is why Iraq is an ancient civilization. As a matter of fact, if you know anything about the Arab culture, uh, the historical records and so forth, Iraq was considered one of the centers of, of, of the all advancements in science, architecture, philosophy, art, you name it. Yeah, that's why we didn't understand when we went into Iraq in 2003, had no clue about all this. But anyway, so as I said, Iraq is in Western Asia, is a country in Western, uh, uh, Asia, and is largely correspondent with the territory of ancient Mesopotamia. This is what's important. Why? Because the history of Mesopotamia extends from the lower Paleolithic period until the establishment of the caliphates in the 7th century AD, after which the region came to be known as Iraq. And by the way, the, the period of the Paleolithic Uh, Paleolithic, which is— it was a period in history. It's an ancient culture stage of human development marked by the use of, uh, sort of chipped stone tools. Traditionally, it has been considered to have begun with the Pleistocene epoch, which is 2.58 to 3 million years ago. So that's how far back it goes. And I think I have, uh, yeah, that is part of, of, of this history of Iraq. And of course, with all this, it encompassed with the Iraq territory is the ancient land of Sumer. That's where Sumerian came, came from. I think I have an image I need to share with you that I saved Uh, and this one was through— I got it through the History, uh, of, uh, it was, I believe, an article if I'm not mistaken. Uh, yeah, it was an article, uh, that was originally, uh, published in 2017, on December 7th, uh, 2017. And, uh, by the way, this information came from history.com, and I will provide you the link, uh, to all this just for you to understand. Let me see if I have an image that I'd like to share with you. Uh, yeah, I do. I don't know if you guys can see it right there, you know. And, and the image, I give credit to Getty Images. That's where the image is from, so I give the credit for them. I'm just showing it here for educational purposes, because you know the rights and royalties and so forth. So I have to disclose what the image is for. It's not for sale, it's for educational purposes. So what you need to know about Sumerian history, okay, because what's important about this is that, uh, Sumer, as I said, was an ancient civilization that was founded in the Mesopotamia region of the Fertile Crescent, situated between Tigris and Euphrates rivers. That's the key for you to know. It was known for its innovation in languages, governance, architecture, and even other fields as well. Sumerians are considered, uh, the creator of civilizations as modern human understand it. And their control of the region lasted for short of 2,000 years before the Babylonian took charge in 2004 BC. This is what's important to understand this part of history, because without it, it won't make sense to you as far as understanding the, uh, how Iraq came to be. This is why it's very, very important to understand that. The other aspect of all this was that, uh, what it came out between, uh, 6,000 and 5,000 BC during the Neolithic or Ubaid period of Mesopotamia history and is widely considered to be the oldest civilization in recorded history. Now, of course, we can't ignore the old history of China as well. And I remember when I was talking to Dr. Ken Hammond, who is a Chinese historian, uh, by training, he did mention to me about how old the Chinese civilization is. So it is also known, uh, the, uh, historical center of Arcadians, Neo-Sumerians, Babylonians, Neo-Assyrian, and the Neo-Babylonian Empires. Those are successions of local ruling dynasties that reigned over Mesopotamia and various other regions of the ancient Near East during the Bronze and Iron Ages. So one thing also you need to know quickly here before I jump into a brief analysis here is that Iraq during antiquity witnessed some of the world's earliest writing, literature, sciences, mathematics, laws, and philosophy. So that's why, that's why if you only know the term always associated with Iraq, the cradle of civilization, because that's where the rule, grammatical rule, for example, for Arabic language, to those who study Arabic language and understand the grammars and so forth, you know where those rules came from. Same thing with mathematics, same thing with astronomy, and so forth. So, and all this, this era of self-rule lasted till about 539 BC when the Neo-Babylonian Empire was conquered by the neighboring Achaemenid Empire under Cyrus the Great. Yeah, we do have, by the way, viewer or, or supporter of the channel, by the name Cyrus the Great. So, but not that one. So, who proclaimed himself as a king of Babylon. Babylon. So, so this is what I wanted to share with you guys as far as the history of, of, of— uh-oh, what happened? My image is not there. Oh well. Can you guys, uh, can you guys see me? If you, if you see me, please give me a thumbs up because I can't see myself here. No. Yeah, it went blank on me here. Let me see if I can get it back here, guys. There we go. So, all right, there it is. So anyway, that is what I wanted to share with you, just FYI, for you to understand the old history of Iraq. Iraq is not a new country, it goes way, way back, and that's something I argued against the invasion, not understanding the history of Iraq. I said, you're gonna turn things upside down, I ain't gonna be the same. And that's exactly what we are witnessing here. So anyway, let's move on into briefly our conversation about the attacks on US forces in both Iraq and Syria. So, and again, this, uh, uh, in retaliation, the US attacked the 12th Brigade of the, uh, it's called the Popular Mobilization Forces in, in Iraq, in Baghdad. That's what it was. So of course, the Iraqi authorities now blame the international coalition because remember, the US is in Iraq and their so-called international coalition forces. And the Iraqi government looked at this as unjustified— unjustified attack on the Iraqi security agencies operating in accordance with the power granted to it by the commander-in-chief of the armed forces. When he said, she went, and I quote, this undermines all understanding between the Iraqi Armed Forces and the international coalition forces, end of quote. However, the Pentagon on the other end, or the, or on the other hand, claimed that the person killed in Iraq through the strikes by the US was involved in planning and carrying out attacks against the Americans. So the question for you guys: does the US have a justification to conduct the attack, yes or no? And again, let's not get the emotional here, let's just think objectively here. So there is also another thing that just happened this morning, except I'm not going to talk about it here, and this has to do with the report that now Iran rejected US offer for ceasefire. And unfortunately, I can't get into the detail here. I'm going to save this for you as soon as we go to the other location. So now, the spokesperson— or spokeswoman, I'm sorry, the spokesman, I'm sorry— for the Victory Coalition, Akil al-Rudayni. And by the way, this was an article from Al Jazeera. This wasn't reported here in the West. What Roudaini said in a statement, that, uh, that Washington violated all international laws and conventions. So the major attacks— and because here's the argument, the US will, will argue that we were attacked, we had to respond. But the US wasn't by itself there. The US is under the umbrella of, uh, a coalition So, and this is where, uh, the, the violations, uh, the Iraqi government claimed have been repeated on a number of the, uh, the, uh, mobilization headquarters and the federal police. That means they've been attacked, uh, constantly. Now what you're going to be seeing now, most likely protests inside Iraq for the presence of American forces. They want them out because to them, they will argue that their presence, meaning American presence in Iraq, is unjustified. There's no need for them to be there. And, uh, the government now is caught, uh, between a rock and a hard place as to what to do. Now, there are some reports that the Iraqi government have already asked Iran, uh, the US to leave but the US refused. That becomes problematic. Why? Because sovereignty of state comes into play. When a sovereign state asks you to leave, it's their country. Now, that doesn't mean the diplomatic relations will be cut off. It just— they don't want the presence of the military forces there. So, and this is exactly what, uh, uh, uh, uh, the spokesman for the Victory Coalition, Arudaini, expressed his hope that the bilateral committee between Iraq and the United States, whose mission was to remove US forces from Iraq, will be activated. As of now, it is not activated. But at the same time, he argues, and I quote, these things are not so easy. And we need more time and communication in order to get out of, uh, let me share a picture here, uh, to show you another one for the US forces right there. Yeah, it's not easy. Even now you have the Prime Minister of Iraq, his name is Muhammad Shia al-Sudani, he affirmed his government's firm position of ending the presence of international coalition. Now pay attention, guys, pay attention. He affirmed his government's firm possession of and in the presence of international coalition. He didn't say the US coalition. Makes you wonder, because here is one hard fact, is that after the invasion of Iraq, we were the one to put Nouri al-Maliki in possession of power. We placed him there. Could be this guy also try to be wishy-washy by be careful about what he's saying. I'll let you decide on that. So, so what he's saying basically, the presence of international coalition forces after his justifications in Mesopotamia expire. It is another keyword that keeps coming is Mesopotamia. Why they didn't say just in Iraq? Because they're referring to the whole geographical area. Makes you wonder why both attacks in Syria and Iraq against US forces been happening. And this is where, uh, uh, the Sudanese wanted to have, uh, the justification for his government, uh, uh, possession of ending the presence of international coalition. But again, I find it very wishy-washy instead of being direct and say exactly, I don't want US forces here, or I don't want British forces here, or German, or French, whatever country is. So now I read one article also, and I found an analyst by the name— and I give him credit for this— Khalid al-Ardawi. He argued that as long— and I put this in quotes because that's his word— As long as the agreement is in force, meaning the binding between the agreement between the US and the coalition forces, international coalition forces. So Khalid Al-Ardawi, the analyst, said, and I quote, as long as the agreement is in force, it is binding on its parties, and the cancellation, or the cancellation of this international agreement is governed by many circumstances and facts. And sometimes some agreements are canceled unilaterally, like what we did when it comes down to the JCPOA, which was wrong because we had 5 other members signing to that agreement. Yes, we withdrew. That's when former President Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal unilaterally, which was wrong. I don't care what others say. The fact that we signed an agreement, we ought to obey by the rules of that clause till it expires. This is exactly what I am now in, uh, in the process of finding out whether it's true or not that Iraq— Iran, I'm sorry— now stopped shipping oil to China, which I found very, very unusual. So I'm digging into that to get into this one and find out, was there a problem with the agreement? To continue with what Mr. Khalid al-Ardawi said, is that, that this violates the image of the state in terms of its reputation and credibility in international relations, end of quote. He's spot on. You look at now what we did with the GCPUA when we withdrew the credibility of the US was shattered. Our credibility has already been shattered from way back. That's what was part of the problem. So now when you look at the legality of this, and I'm going to turn to one other guy that I had a chance to read his arguments, and he's a legal expert. His name is Ali Tamimi. He explains that the first agreement between Iraq and America which was back in 2008 and stipulated, stipulated, yeah, the withdrawal of US forces on the 1st of January 2011. And indeed, the withdrawal took place, and it was called the SOFA. SOFA stands for the Status of Forces Agreement, and it was not renewed This is what the problem is now with the legality of what the US forces are doing there. So the second agreement, according to Mr. Ali Atamimi, who is a legal expert, the other one was in 2008 also, which is an agreement of cooperation in all technical, economic, and security fields, and did not This is the key word, guys. It did not provide the presence of US forces, but Article 27 of it allowed the agreement to be unilaterally canceled after 1 year of notice. This is what I find very, very interesting about all this, and this is one thing that we need to understand where this is going. Where this is headed, as far as why all these attacks are happening right now. So if you think also in terms of does this also has to do with China's role in Iraq, yeah, you can, you can ignore that. Do you know why? Because since 20— an agreement— not since In 2021, China and Iraq signed an agreement by which, by which China will build 1,000 schools in Iraq. So, and this is, uh, uh, uh, what the Iraqi government did in 2021, and their argument was that it ought to be completed by 2023. What's interesting, and I found, and I dig into this all information here, and I found that, that Iraq is in need because it was devastated after the invasion, remember. It was in need of 8,000 schools to fill the gap in education sector. Very, very, very, very, very important. The article was, was, by the way, in France. So, and I'll put the link for you. So, and this is why you have to think about what is happening right now as geopolitical analyst. You have to think in terms of this is not happening in vacuum because Iraq is the top beneficiary of China's BRI. Remember in 2021 when, when he agreed to the, to the, uh signing of a $10.1— $10.5, I'm sorry, $10.5 billion in financing in, uh, in return for China's building infrastructure. Iraq has also another thing that goes for it. Can anybody tell me what it is? Can you guys type in, in the chat box what is something that is really going on for Iraq despite all this? Let me see if you guys can type it. Very, very, uh, it's on a global level. It's on a global level. And you will understand why all these tensions, uh, it's not, it's not a coincidence. It's not a coincidence. It is a reason for it. Uh, oh, you got it, MC. You got it, MC. It's the oil industry. The oil industry. And who is building the infrastructure? China. You got it. You got it. So that is the whole idea of why I'm saying the attacks, what's going on in Western Asia as a whole the trip of, uh, Antony Blinken to Middle East. As of now, he's still there talking about after the conflict. All this now, and this is what I intend to address with you guys on the other platforms. So, so I'm gonna sign off here and we're all gonna go to— let me put it back again for you guys so you know where to go. Here is this one here, and I'm gonna type it for you in the chat box, and I will see you— I will see you guys there in about 5 or 10 minutes. Yeah, make sure to join me there, guys. Here it is. And just save your questions, save your questions, and I will answer them for you over there, okay? And I also say my thanks to all the channel members and supporters when I— when we go down there. All right guys, see you over there. As always, remember, geopolitics impacts your daily life in more ways than one. Till next time, bye-bye, or soon.