US is FURIOUS at OPEC+ for Cutting Oil Production! So, What!!!

All right, hello everybody and welcome to Geopolitical Trends. This is the new channel that I talked to you about yesterday, so I am so excited to be here. And by the way, this is where I am going to be making most of my live streams, and basically to explain certain issues, provide brief analysis, and highlight so many other, uh, uh, key topics that I feel you will need to know. So if this is your first time here, of course most of you is the first time, please make sure to hit the subscribe button so we can grow this channel quicker, quickly, and reach out to a lot of people from around the world. So as a community, so we can at least exchange ideas and see where are we headed, all of us as a community. So, so I'm so excited to be here, uh, and because the channel just launched today, as a matter of fact. So, so So what I'm going to be talking to you about today is a follow-up to my discussion that I did yesterday, not on this channel, of course, because it wasn't here. I did yesterday on the Geopolitics in Conflict platform, my other YouTube channel. So I started the conversation there, but I'm going to be following from now because I was waiting on this channel to be launched. So, so that's why I'm so, so excited to be here. Uh, I also wanted to extend my thanks to, uh, all of you yesterday who, uh, uh, joined me, uh, during that live stream, uh, live stream. And, uh, some of you were from, uh, Kuala Lumpur and Johannesburg to, uh, from to Toronto and Churchville in New Zealand, uh, Arizona. So it was so exciting. Nigeria, Cameroon It was so exciting to see that great diversity of the people because we are all like a community here. So, and the whole idea here is the thing, the whole idea of this channel that I just created here is to create that sort of a center for community where we can exchange ideas. Doesn't matter where you're from, doesn't matter what language you speak. I mean, we all have to communicate in English language, but that's the point is, is for us to exchange ideas, and we can understand where are we headed as, you know, as, as one unit, shall we say, of, of, of, of humanity, because the world is going through some serious issues and we need to figure out a way, uh, as to how we all can coexist in a peaceful way. You know, I'm a believer of live and let live. That, that is my motto. So this is what I intend to do in this channel here. So, uh, let me answer the question from yesterday. That I asked you whether the rise in oil prices will trigger, uh, uh, could a rise in oil prices will trigger, uh, a military war or intervention or so. So I agree with the majority of you, and I answered some of your comments, if not most of them, basically, uh, that most of you agreed that there is that possibility that a war could erupt just in case countries do not have a lack of access to resources and so forth. So there's that possibility of that. And as I always say, I use history as my guide. You know, if you want, you know, how did we defeat Japan back in World War II? Because they didn't have access to oil. So Allies forces were able to defeat Japan because they had access, uh, to oil. And that was one of the key aspects of it. So I, I concur with majority of the answers for that, and thank you for that. So let us jump into discussion of our topic here. As I said, I will do a follow-up on what I talked about yesterday. I'll provide you a brief analysis for how I see things going. Then I'll, I'll, I'll close it up with a question for you, uh, so we can just discuss it further down the road. So, so it was announced basically that the White House today, uh, declared or stated that— actually it was the president himself that declared that all the options are on the table after OPEC+ alliance decided to cut its oil production despite US warnings. And that the argument from the side of the American administration is that cutting the oil prices you know, would raise the price of fuel and put the world economies at risk, at risk. Well, wait a minute, isn't the world economies already at risk because of the inflation, because of the recession, which most governments are not disclosing yet? So they can't— we are on the verge of recession. Come on, let's be, let's be straightforward about it and And this is what, by the way, this channel is going to be about, is about the truth. Let's not sugarcoat it, just say it the way it is. And that's the whole idea, uh, of, of why we do what we do. So, so OPEC+, uh, by the way, some of you have asked, uh, a comment about if it were— if I could define what an OPEC or OPEC+ is, like who are the members. Well, OPEC+ usually refers to a group of about 23 oil-producing countries. That includes— within those 23, that includes 13 countries. Those are the OPEC members, and, and that includes Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Algeria, Angola, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Libya, Nigeria, the Republic of Congo, and Venezuela. Those are OPEC members. Now the other 10, they are considered producing— oil-producing countries, referred to as OPEC Plus, and includes Russia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Brunei, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Mexico, Oman, uh, South Sudan, and Sudan. So this is why anytime you hear there is a meeting of OPEC+, when you hear there is a meeting of OPEC+, that means the 23 members. When you hear there is an OPEC, there is an OPEC meeting, just OPEC, that means the first 13 members. Those are the, uh, so here is the logical question that many of us will ask. Because those are common questions to ask, you know, why the US is so angry and pissed off at OPEC+ decision, you know. Well, usually the assumption is— it's not the assumption, as a matter of fact, it has been reported that the White House or Washington, for that matter, when I say Washington is the establishment, is angry because the decision of the group, the OPEC+ members, decided to side with Russia, you know. And this is why President of the United States, President Biden, is leading an international effort to isolate energy-producing Russia over its military operations in Ukraine, you know. Well, what's interesting about all this is that at the same time, President Biden is working to lower oil prices here for Americans. Well, not because it needs to be done, is because the upcoming midterm election next month in November— and usually for us in November, every 2 years, we have the congressional, uh, elections. That's when— because it's very, very important. You have to understand the domestic politics of the United States, why midterm are, are very important. Well, they are important for two things. One is it gives you an idea of the next presidential election because only two years after that. And second, it gives you an idea about who is now be controlling the agenda, because who controls both houses, the Senate and the House of Representatives, controls the agenda. You know, usually rarely that you will see in American system that you will have the president the Senate and the House of Representatives, all of them controlled by the same party. And that's another conversation which I will get into at some point down the road, as I said, because I will be doing this on a regular basis. It's one of the ideas: why are we having only two political parties in American system? You know, that will be a fascinating conversation once we grow this channel to have more, uh, sort of subscribers to join us for the conversation. So So here's the thing. President Biden did indeed report, or told the reporter, that he was disappointed. Well, I'll come and say, so what? And who cares if you are disappointed? Because to me, the way I look at it as an analyst, you know, you have to come to terms with the reality as to the global order has changed. The global order is shifting. The geopolitical landscape has shifted. Gone the days when the, uh, the, uh, Earth used to be the sole property of the United States, you know, as in unipolar, because that— things have changed. So when the president saying he's disappointed, he's kind of like— he begs the question, does he truly understand what's going on? The world is shifting, and it's shifting towards multipolarity. They're just part of it. Global order, that's how it goes. So, and that also the president mentioned that he has to counter, uh, sort of the rise in, in prices, uh, by any means. You know, usually he's referring to the tapping into, uh, the Strategic Petroleum Reserves, you know. But what was very important about his his statement is the last two words. And the last two words is, you know, "We do have a lot of alternatives." And I put this in quote. I find it very interesting because there's one thing you need to sort of understand when it comes down to politicians stating or suggesting whatever. It's the words they choose. Those are random. Those are not random. These are for specific reason as to why they are mentioned there. So what are the alternatives are we talking about? Because right there you will think about sanctions, it's possibility, but who you're going to sanction? Russia is already sanctioned, you know. And that's why I have the question for you for today, for the end, pertaining to this aspect. So the question becomes is, what could it be included in this alternative that the administrator is talking about? Well, I did find out some, uh, sort of, uh, options the White House has. For example, it could include withdrawing additional amounts of this Strategic Petroleum Reserve, or SPR. This is not going to cut it because the administration already tried this one a couple months ago and it didn't work, let alone the administration was selling oil to China. And India. So at the expense of the American taxpayers. And third thing is that that oil at the Strategic Petroleum Reserves does not belong to the government, that belongs to the American people. And I think I already mentioned something about this when I, uh, talked about this topic a way back. So the other alternative is— there were about 3 or 4. The second one is to increase internal oil exploration. I see this one as a no-go because the president, when he was running as a candidate, he ran, he ran on the platform that it would be no drilling in America. You know, this is why when he became president, the first executive order— well, you guessed it— that shut down the oil gas pipeline coming from Canada. Why? Because the environment considerations. Because for, for President Biden, if he does this, it will be suicide politically for the entire party. That's why I don't see that happening. So third one is, uh, imposing more strict measures. You all see where this is going, right? You know, which include restrictions on exports. You I just, as one who works in Washington, D.C., I'm very familiar with how the establishment works. I was there inside, of course. And those are just political slogans because you have to, you, the administration, you, the government, you, the Washington establishment, have to let the American people hear the sound of, yeah, we're going to do this, we're going to do that, which end up being nothing but a bravado. No more, no less. That's usually how, how I see it. US officials, on the other hand, remain cautious about, okay, how these next steps is going to be implemented. And this is what the chief economist, who is usually the position is as an economic advisor to the president, and his name is Brian Deeds. And he did state it, and I quote— let me get the quote here so I can accurately, uh, uh, uh, describe it here. He said, and I quote, 'We need to look at what tools are needed,' end of quote. Now you can read between the lines, politically speaking, because this is how an administration will refer to— well, sanction might be on, on the table, it's just a matter of how we're gonna implement it and on whom? Because OPEC+ is not one country. Are you gonna sanction the entire entity? Which, which doesn't make any sense, you know. The interesting thing is that the economic advisor also suggested that the administration, uh, uh, will not rule out an idea being debated in Congress. As we speak, you know. And this idea was about passing a law, and that law will drop sovereign immunity in antitrust lawsuits. Basically, this jargon language, all it means is that that could allow the United States government to sue members of the OPEC+ Alliance. If you noticed, it didn't say to sue the entire alliance, because they can't— to, to, to sue, uh, uh, members, members of OPEC+ Alliance. It didn't even say to sue OPEC, it's OPEC+, because OPEC+ doesn't carry as much weight as OPEC members, because those are heavy producers. OPEC+ for— except for Russia, does have a lot. So, so it would be interesting to see how this is unfold, and that's why I said I wanted to follow up on this to see where it is, the which direction it is going. So additionally, uh, Mr. Deeds, uh, Brian— this is the, the economic advisor to the president— also said, and I quote, we will conduct an assessment and consult closely with Congress on a range of issues. And again, I don't know what they could do. Are you going to go and force a country to produce more oil? There are sovereign states. No, they just can't do that. No. And the argument from the administration is that the, uh, the alliance decision It was kind of unjustified. Well, unjustified according to whom? You know, to them, to them, the alliance, the OPEC Plus, they're looking at the bottom line, and the bottom line is profit. Straightforward. You cut production, oil prices goes up, more money for their, uh, uh, budgets. Straightforward. It's like a business. Like I said yesterday, the bottom line for any cartel is is going to think in terms— in an economic setting, is going to think, think in terms of economic profit, you know. And, and the argument of the White House that, well, it is not justified, the decision. Why? Because it will severely worsen the global economy. Well, the global economy has already suffered, suffered from many other issues unrelated to oil. Like, for example, the shipments, you know, that's been interrupted for the last 2 or 3 years due to the, you know, the what we went through with the pandemic and so forth. So there's that possibility of that. There is also the idea of the global financial market, the instability of currencies and so forth. So the market has already global market, that is, or global economy, has already some issues before. Of course, the Ukraine, uh, war adds to that because of the energy, the degradation of the economic outlook in Europe. It's just making it even harder. And you can just see now the consumers in Europe. I will start with Britain. Britain, Europe, Brits are suffering big time, and the government is kind of in denial of sort. This is why the central bank want to have an increased interest rate. Well, I ain't going to solve the problem because people don't have enough money. Now when you increase interest rates, you're just making it worse, you know. But here is what I found also interesting about the statements from the economic advisor, that is, and he argues that maybe this cut in productions might not have as much impact on the market as feared, which is nonsense. The reason being because just yesterday the stock markets dropped. I mean, it recovered on certain areas, but you can just already feel in the, the, uh, the impact of the global prices going up in the oil. I was driving today, you Yesterday I told you I saw oil price— gas at the gas pump at $3.19. Today I saw it at $3.29. Another place I saw it for $3.39 within just less than 24 hours. So when, when a statement comes from an official saying that, well, this production cut might not have as much impact, I would say that's a weak argument. And that's nonsense. Yeah, because it, it just doesn't make any sense. You're looking at 2 million barrels a day. This is not 100,000. It's going to reflect on the reality. And the reality— and this is what this geopolitics is all about. That's why I called it geopolitical trends. You have to see the trends and understand where that trend is headed. It's going to trickle down to Average Joe and Average Jane. You know, that's why I don't buy the arguments of what, uh, the, the, uh, the official is saying. Here is the interesting aspect also. One of the interesting aspects is that the US is now looking, you know, get this Check this out. The US now looking at easing sanctions on Venezuela. You know, this is like— this is where you start to realize, you know, whether you have a— you as a government, you have a cohesive foreign policy or you have a fragmented foreign policy. This is an example of a fragmented foreign policy. You are sanctioning heavily that country and you're going back to it and said, hey, we need your assistance in producing more oil. I mean, where is the logic into all this? Somebody will have to sort of advise the president that, sir, you can't say that because it doesn't make sense. What we think— what do we think? Just because we said this, Venezuela is going to say, sure, we'll open up all our oil fields for you. Produce as many oil as you want. It's not going to work. They are not going to pump more oil just because the US says so. And this is again a reflection of that reality that has not been, uh, digested yet in Washington, that the world, the global geopolitical landscape has shifted, that the global order that has been held for the last 70-plus years, in which the United States was at the top of every pecking order, is changing. Most of the countries on Global South are looking now differently. And, and I will do a specific video on the elections in Brazil because that is one of the hallmark of where you're going to see that change, with the assumption, and only one, And that assumption is if Lula da Silva wins the election, that's the only option it will happen. But here's the thing about even we are saying or ask, we might consider talking to Venezuela, we already put a condition. And you know what the condition is? Is that the first, that the Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro must agree to resume talks with the country's opposition. Inflation. Who on Earth would even consider something this, this, this crazy? You know, you know, it just doesn't work. The fact is this: OPEC+, you know, this cut in oil, it certainly is going to lift prices up, increase prices, and at the same time is going to boost global inflation concerns. That is the real economic concern about it moving forward. I also looked at this issue from another angle because, uh, one thing I intend to do in this channel is I will provide you both sides of the argument. Of course, I will never ever reach a conclusion for you, the reason being This is why I would like to have our forum here in which we can exchange ideas and questions and all that, just for us to have an understanding, all of us. But for me to reach a conclusion for you, no, I will not do that. And it's not the right thing to do to begin with. So that is one of the things. But I will do provide— I will provide you with both sides of the argument and let you reach your own conclusion. So here's the other side of the argument. And I'm looking at it from the prime— the deputy, I'm sorry, the Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak. And Novak just said yesterday, he just mentioned this, and by the way, I will provide you with the link to all this to see where I got this information and so forth, so you can have a look at it yourself. What he stated was that Russia may end up reducing oil production altogether. But this is not in conjunction with OPEC+. It is with it to a degree. Russia is looking at it from another angle altogether, and that angle is— it has to do with countering the repercussions of the West's imposition of a cap on Russian energy prices. We did a video on it. I did it last time on, uh, on the Geopolitics in Conflict platform because we didn't have— I didn't have this channel. So, and I did talk about this price cap ain't gonna work because Russia is a sovereign state. You know, it's almost like, uh, for example, you go to grocery shopping, okay, you go buy something, and the, uh, the owner of the shop, whatever, comes to you, said, uh, the price is $10. He said, no, you need to pay $15. So what you're gonna do? You're gonna just take off. I say thanks but no thanks. So this is my belief why the Russian declaration, it's aimed at, you know, hitting two birds with one stone, supporting OPEC+ on one end but also sending a message to the EU to counter, uh, the, the EU's imposition of a cap on, on Russian energy prices. That's the way I see it play out. You know, there's the other aspect of that, the industry or industries around the world, you know, most of them mentioned that, uh, most likely this oil cut is going to lead to higher prices, especially, especially from the Middle Eastern oil. No. Why they specify just the Middle East, it's, it's beyond me. But also I could think because the majority of oil and the large productions are from the Middle East. No, because here is the thing: Middle Eastern oil, just Middle Eastern by itself, meets about two-thirds of Asia's demand. And Asia, Asia's market is no small when you consider China and India and South Korea and Japan and so forth, you know, it's no small market. And you add to that the ongoing infla— infla— inflation, rather. Inflammation, that's not a word. Inflation, you know, you add that to it, you know. This is why you have concerns right now in, for example, Japan and South Korea. South Korea's refineries won't be able to sustain that, that, that, that, you know, because there will be a drop first of all on in oil, and they're going to be struggling for that, you know. Even in India, I found it very interesting. India now is kind of struggling with the rising living cost despite India bringing oil from Russia at a discounted price. And Europe, Europe is another matter altogether, you know. I don't see how Europe is saying, yeah, we're gonna find an alternative. As a matter of fact, today, uh, Borrell, he's the security president for EU or something like that, you know, he said that, you know, we're gonna phase out, uh, Russian energy completely. Where are you gonna get oil from, let alone the cost, you know? And you want to do it by this winter? There's no time, you know. This, these things like this, it doesn't just— you put oil in a tanker and just ship it the next day. No, there's a lot, a lot. It's a long process that is involved in this. And this is why the European Central Bank, you know, accounts due to— as German now, the German's orders, it's pointing to deeper problems that, you know, they are not disclosing. And of course they want this closed. You look at it in the United Kingdom, inflation is so high. This is why adding interest rates, when the central bank in England raised that, it just made it even worse. So, so the European Central Bank will publish the account of its last policy meeting soon, you know. And by the way, And this publication usually is going to indicate that it casts more light on how much enthusiasm there is in Frankfurt for more big rate hikes coming on the way. And why is this? Because the slowdown in the eurozone economy becomes increasingly serious. Why is that? And that's a key word increasingly serious. Why? Because lack of energy. As a matter of fact, some industries in Germany have already been warned that by the end of the year they need to shut down. You know, the Eurosystem, for the central bank in its entirety, now openly warning of a recession. Hello. No, despite the European Central Bank preferring not to acknowledge that risk in its latest forecast in September, which was just last month. That's what I find very fascinating, you know, what, what's been reported versus what it is. And this is what prompts me to establish this channel, because I want to provide you no matter how brief the analysis is, because if I do an, you know, you'll take a lot of time. So I want to just do it slowly and methodically as we grow this channel. So we'll figure out different ways of how I'm gonna be doing this with you moving forward. So, so here's my analysis to you, tie it to all this, you know, in the last decade or so, more and more energy experts are starting to focus their analysis now on the US energy market and how it could shift the power play in the global energy market. Well, that was what they were saying. Now we are realizing their, their, their assessment was way off. When you have the United States wanted to reach out to Venezuela, ask it for oil when you have the United States going to Saudi Arabia begging for oil and all of them saying, what the heck are you asking? You got to be out of your mind. Because that's, that's just how, uh, I find it very, very odd and weird, you know. I did argue this in my last book, The Dynamics of Russia's Geopolitics. Remaking the Global Order. I did argue this couple years ago, you know, and I said back then, in the last decade or so, more and more energy experts are starting to focus their analysis on the US. And again, I challenge that assumption there. And the reason why I challenge it is because the shift in the geopolitical landscape in the global energy market and what will it only means. And this goes to the heart of how geopolitics affects energy prices. This is what I want you to get. No matter what you hear, no matter how it is worded, geopolitics affects energy prices. So the oil prices is here, is for instance especially susceptible to political outcomes. And what political outcomes are we talking about here? You look at the Ukraine crisis, you look at the Taiwan issue, you look at, for example, the Brazilian elections, you look at now the Turkey, the tensions with Greece. You look at even Poland. Now, this morning, I just find out that they are now might be willing to host US nuclear weapons. That's, that's a systemic change within the global geopolitical landscape. So oil prices are susceptible to those changes in the geopolitical landscape, and global energy consumption is changing, you know, as countries work to find alternative. Alternative to what? Not to oil., but rather alternative to suppliers. That's what is really, really, really important. So, and given this reality, you know, it just doesn't take genius to figure out. You put one and one together. So when you think about in the context of OPEC+ reaching that decision, well, mainly for Russia, because Russia's abundance of end debt, you Gas and oil demands attention for that. And one must pay— one must pay rather specifically attention to Russia's strategic gas reserves settling between Asia and Europe. This is once again where the trends comes in. I remember I did a video on the other platform about, uh, Euroasia, how it's going to flip global order. So why? Because the oil, the gas fields stretches from west to the east of Siberia and the island of Sakhalin. And for this reason, and this reason only, you have to also keep in mind as to why China decided, made the decision to expand its relations on many spheres with Russia, especially in the energy sector. Yes, there are others, like for example the military, and the— what's the third one— about technology. Know, but it's in the energy sector, you know. That's why I take specific interest in China's energy focus, to highlight how China end up financing projects in the Arctic. It's not doing it because China cares, is doing it because China sees the opportunity, a business opportunity, having access to oil sources, and stems also from the fact that China will benefit from investing in the energy infrastructure pipeline. Why? Because the untapped, uh, oil reserves and natural gas and all that stuff reserves, you know, uh, tap about $35 trillion. And I did mention this a couple times ago. So, so this is what's important for you to understand why these dynamics are very, very crucial. As I said earlier, this is the first time I'm doing this live here on this channel. I'm gonna be doing more once again we get more subscribers. So please spread out the word about this channel here because I will be providing you analysis about these issues that you need to know and have a better understanding of. And the objective is always to create a community where we can exchange ideas. So, so here's my question for you for today, and the question is this: can the United States sanction Saudi Arabia over its support for Russia? I repeat, can the United States sanction Saudi Arabia over its support for Russia? Let me know what you think in the comment section, and I will respond to it. So usually I'm gonna create a motto by which I'm gonna be ending every live stream I come on, and this motto goes like this: as always, geopolitics impacts your daily life in more ways than one. I look forward to seeing you guys next time. See you, bye-bye.