US/Israel’s Big Mistake: Underestimating Iran's Capabilities!

Hello everybody and welcome to Geopolitical Trends, where truth matters. Excited to be with you as always. The Iran war has a hidden casualty now no one is talking about. When you look at also the defense shield protecting South Korea, okay, with the Patriot and the, uh, THAAD, uh, batteries redeployed to the Middle East and the US interceptor stockpile is rapidly depleting. And with all this, you have Kim Jong-un just positioned himself as a potential partner in the conflict because what he receives now is the most valuable strategic intelligence of his career for free. So I'm gonna do a separate video for the— on this particular topic, waiting to confirm some information some other time. But for now, I need you to keep that in mind as we move forward into this conversation. So here's the thing. The moment Iran— I'm sorry, the moment Israel launched the attack on Iran, it immediately wanted to escape. And this is where the problem is. Yes, the strikes were devastating and so forth. But now the U.S. is being pulled into managing the war on behalf of Israel. It's not even our war to begin with. And this is where you're gonna now realize the cost and the dead Americans starting to fly over to the U.S. This is, by the way, only what the media is allowing you, all of us, to know. So as early as of March, the beginning of the campaign against Iran, which you all know, the Operation Epic Fury, it is estimating the American, me and others here in America, taxpayers, over between $890 million to $1 billion a day. So this high daily expense is driven Of course, by air, by naval operations, the expensive missile defense interceptions, and so forth. And with this, we're starting to look at a much bigger problem, the financial collapse. Iranian knew as getting into this, this is a long haul. This is why Iran now doesn't want to stop the war, excuse me, doesn't want to stop the war, and it will not stop the war. So according to reports that are sort of published by major international newspaper, not just here in Washington, they're gonna be lying about the numbers. I looked at the report inside the Pentagon, but again, will I trust what I see? No, because the numbers are far higher. What this international newspaper have disclosed so far is that there are now signs of a financial collapse that have begun to appear as the cost of operating, for example, two aircraft carriers in the region amounts to $13 million a day. Even one of the, uh, entities here in the US, Bloomberg, that is, estimated that the operating cost of the USS Gerald Ford— you know, when it was in Venezuela, the coast and so It was costing back then $11.4 million a day when it was based in near Venezuela. Then you add the cost of the kamikaze drones, which is about 1,250 of them. The cost reached about $43.8 million. And once again, these figures, it just what's been disclosed to the people. Outside. And that in itself, when you look at a drone, that is especially for the Iranians, what they're using cost what, $10,000, $20,000? Okay. It's far cheaper option compared to a multi-million dollar missiles. And for the THAAD ballistic missile interceptors, the ones we had in the Korean theater, they used by the military sort of to repel or repel the enemy strikes, right? Here's the thing: each one cost about $12.8 million according to the Pentagon documents. But you know the numbers— not that the Pentagon's not going to want to disclose the truth. And so far we have no idea because there is no accountability here. We have no idea how many of those missiles have been used so far. If you see the skies in Tel Aviv with like, like, like, uh, no fireworks, let me use the term, where all the interception, what, nothing, you know, how many, how many missiles would have to be launched into this? And this in itself gave the way for the major question. The major question is, which by the way, many of you have participated in the survey that I asked this question. Did Israel and the United States miscalculate the balance of power in the war against Iran? It's a legitimate question to ask. And by the way, thank you for the community, those who took part in this or participated in this survey. We had about 4,265 participants. So 94% of you said yes, 3% of you said no. And 3% say don't know. This is a legitimate answer as well. But we have to ask that question because the most compelling argument for these miscalculations centers on one aspect that the US and Israel didn't count on, which is Iran's resilience as a target. And now with the nomination of the new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, he's the second son of Khamenei. I'll do a separate video for you about this one because you need to know certain aspects about— he was behind— I was aware of his sort of back then when I was in Washington, you working, you, you understand who's in behind the scenes. Mojtaba was one behind the scenes. It's not about all this now, it is about what he just did the moment, one hour after he was appointed as the Supreme Leader, Ali— the Supreme Leader Ali— Mostafa Khamenei. He launched missiles at Israel, loud and clear message. And this is why Iran— we never understood this— Iran government managed to survive the economic devastations from the U.S. sanctions for over 38 years. You remember, you remember the 2009 Green Movement? Do you remember the protest between 2019 and 2020? Do you remember 2022 Women's Life Freedom Uprising? And then this major anti-regime protest in 2025, early 2026. And just to put it simply, Iran is a hard target and will not collapse. This is what we didn't understand. This is what Trump didn't understand because Trump is not at the driver's seat, by the way. It is Israel that is, and I'll get into this in a second. So the core strategic error may have been in misreading Iranian restraint as a weakness. I used to say this. Do not misinterpret Iranians' restraint for not responding as a sign of weakness, because that's exactly how we interpreted it. Remember Iran's earlier restraint? That's what emboldened Washington to bomb its nuclear facilities in June 2025. And because of the strikes failed to provoke severe retaliation, Washington may have come to believe, oh, it could go further, targeting Iran's leadership, military assets, or even civilian infrastructure without incurring some sort of serious consequences. And that misjudgment, in my opinion, of restraint and retaliation has now contributed to the outbreak of wider hostilities. And Iran is not backing down. So critically, the assumption that Iran would fight a limited war appears to have been wrong. Wrong. The intelligence assessments, which by the way, Donald Trump didn't see till a week after he launched the attack. It was dictated in that report, you will not be able to take down the regime. You will not be able to. This is why Trump, with his delusional statements, as, as for example, oh, we will have to approve the next leader of Iran. You know, how pathetic. Who the heck you think you are dictating to another sovereign state? You're the one dictating who their president or, or whomever ought to be. And this is where, when you think about, uh, understanding why Iran's regime survival is a foregone conclusion. And that is why Iran went ahead and struck US military installations across the Middle East, including, as you know, bases in Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Jordan, and Iraq. By the way, do you all remember last time I was trying to share with you a picture of that school— and my computer froze. So I have it, I kept it for you. Remember that picture? You know where that missile was launched from? It was launched from Bahrain. And that is why Iran went ahead and struck the U.S. installations in Bahrain. Because here is the harsh reality, which is a reality. All the U.S. military installations in these countries, that means the countries have— they have no authority over that. Even though it's in their territory. They have no sovereignty over this, basically. They couldn't say yes or no, whatever. That is why Iran retaliated by that. So the story is being covered certain ways, but significant— you know, we talk about the attacks of the Iran attacks on the US installations. In Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Oman, even Oman at that point. No, but here is the thing. The significant details are being systematically downplayed or even buried under some other pretext of, look what we're doing to Iran, these massive devastations. Do you know the devastations that is also being caused in Tel Aviv, in Haifa, in other locations inside Israel? Do you know the devastations that is caused in the US military installations? And as a matter of fact, I got a word that the number of casualties is far more than 6, which I have to confirm before I'll disclose information. And this is why what you have, you have the strikes on US bases, and to me it's like Not a— let me rephrase this— it's not a total blackout. That's not what it is. It's just the information is cherry-picked. I am here to tell you the truth because that's what I stand for. Iran launched 500 missiles and 2,000 drones during just the first days of the hostilities. And that is striking the 9 countries: Bahrain, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates. That's an extraordinary bombardment by any historical standard. And yes, do we hear about it? No, no, no. As a matter of fact, the US Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain was directly hit by a missile strike from Iran. And of course, till later on, the Bahraini government confirmed that. And they also reported that, oh, it's been targeted, meaning Bahrain, by 45 missiles and 9 drones. In Qatar, Al Udeid Base, the largest US military presence in West Asia, the largest US base in the region, was targeted by 44 missiles, 8 drones on the opening day alone. Do we hear much about it? No, we don't. And that is why I need you to understand what the media is, is saying. So I'm gonna share a clip with you here, and I want you to hear how the media right here in the US been instructed not to disclose the information. And I'll let you be the judge yourself. Take a listen, please. All right, let me share this one here. We're not showing you that because we're not going to show— the Israeli government does not allow us or want us to show where that may have come up, that interceptor, but I'm not going to go up there. We're not showing you that because we're not going to show Israel. So the Israeli government does not allow us or want us to show where that may have come up, that interceptor. So you got the idea. That is exactly my point, why the media is doing what it's doing. The same arguments I can make about the disappearance of a drone. Let me, let me— sorry, let me share the screen once again. All right, take a listen, please. Advanced surveillance drone has just— America's most advanced surveillance drone has just vanished over the Persian Gulf. The U.S. Navy's MQ-4C Triton, a $180 million high-altitude intelligence aircraft, reportedly sent an emergency signal before disappearing near the Strait of Hormuz, the center of U.S.-Iran tension. This isn't just a drone. Flying above 50,000 feet , Triton tracks warships, missile activity, and critical maritime traffic. If it was intercepted or jammed, that signals a serious electronic warfare challenge. If it malfunctioned, it still exposes operational vulnerability in a high-risk zone. Either way, losing real-time ISR coverage shifts the intelligence balance. In geopolitics, information is power, and that power just blinked. Subscribe. And here is the thing about this. Israel now is in a— I'm sorry, I'm sorry. Iran now is in possession of, as a matter of fact, deciphered One specific technology in a drone that they downed that belongs to Israel. Well, of course, anything belongs to Israel belongs to America because it's all American weapons anyway. And now the Iranians are just reverse engineering it. That's how, and this is why this information has not been disclosed earlier. You think about now the clip on the refinery that took place, Israel, attacked an Iranian refinery missile, an oil refinery with a missile. So let me play a clip for you to show you the retaliation of Iran, if I am able to play it sometimes. Okay, I'm able to play it right here. Let me upload it for you. And you can listen yourself. Of course, they are not disclosing it as to what's really happened here. All right, take a listen here. I know you won't hear it clearly because there's the background. What it says right there, Darb Akbar Musafat al-Innaft. Filkian, meaning in Israel, the, the, the attack on the largest oil refinery in Israel. That's the one you are looking at. Okay, let me get back here and, uh, close this one and we get back to our conversation. And my point is that the idea of— even now there are unconfirmed reports about a number of American soldiers being captured. I'll get into this later on as I get into the— as a matter of fact, I'm going to share it right now because I need you to Okay, let's take a listen. I'm sorry, guys, there are so many windows open. I have to make sure you are watching the right one. All right, I'm gonna do translation for you briefly and we'll move on with this conversation. This is an urgent message coming from none other than Ali Larijani. I have a picture of him. I believe, yes, Ali Larijani. He's the, the Secretary of the National Security Council of sort, stating that many American soldiers, they have been captured. This is according to Mr. Ali Larijani. Those are the American soldiers. And what he had, he had an American analyst. I don't know who that is, but he was in the studio for the interview and asked him the same question. How do you see this emerging news? Whether you can confirm it or deny it. Americans captured? Is this about the Americans being captured? Yes. Okay. He was waiting for the translation, basically. First I've heard of it. This is the first time I heard of this news. I haven't heard this before. This is the first time. There's of course the propaganda part. This is a scary war. And there's a lot of destruction that has been caused so far. And if the Americans are being detained or interrogated, that means the president of the United States, Donald Trump, he will have to react to this. Perhaps he might become more sort of a hardcore regarding this matter. So I'm gonna stop right here because it's, it's a little bit, uh, it's a little bit long and I wanted to keep going in the analysis because I have to, uh, move on with this. So now, uh, you think about the idea of this. Once again, I am not confirming this yet. I'm working on it. 70 soldiers inside, 70 soldiers have been detained, basically a platoon that is. And if it is, makes you ask the question, where, what were those Americans, where were they detained to begin with? Where were they arrested? That means they had to be on the Iranian territory, so on the Iranian soil. And if they are, where did he came from? Did he came from the north? I was in Kurdistan and I remember seeing the borders quite a distance, of course, but Kurdistan— this is why the US is trying now to push the Kurdish fighters into fighting Iran. And if it is true and these 70 soldiers have been detained, that's gonna change the game altogether. And with this comes the deeper strategic miscalculation and the fundamental problem. Now, the fundamental problem regarding this war in Iran that the US and Israel didn't think through deep enough is that the gap between the military success and the political goals. All we've been saying, oh, we want a regime change. Where is it? It is now, yesterday, Mostafa Khamenei has been appointed as the Supreme Leader. The political functions of the government in Iran still operating. And this is why I believe the road to war from both Tel Aviv and Washington was not paved sort of by a sober calculation of sort or the cost-benefit ratio, was not. It was sort of, it was driven by an illusion, if I may use the term, of control, the belief that Washington could coerce Iran into submission through threats, deployments of assets and US aircraft carriers, many planes and so forth, and limited strikes. You strike once or twice or 10, 5 times, whatever, and there will be— without thinking that with these activities will not trigger a broader regional conflagration. And that's exactly what Iran did. So the bottom line to this is that the evidence suggests the miscalculation of the US now that we are spending a billion dollars a day, our taxpayers' dollars, our tax money going into some cause that have nothing to do with the welfare of Americans. And this is why this arrogance, both on Israel and the US, assess their military sort of superiority and that Iran is conventional weakness. No, no, they, meaning Washington, US and Israel, they underestimated Iran's willingness to absorb punishment but at the same time escalate broadly. They overestimated the prospects of regime collapse. And most critically of them all, they choose a war at a moment when diplomacy may have produced results because they were working towards that. And this is where you're going to see why Iran now is saying forget about negotiations. They shouldn't forget about it. I've been saying this forever. I've been saying this forever. But now it's, it's over for all this. And this is again where you're gonna be seeing this is a different phase where we are entering into this. Liking this video so far? Don't just be a watcher, go ahead and hit the like, share, and subscribe button. And don't forget to tap the bell so you will not miss any of my videos or live streams. This way you will be supporting the channel that stands for the truth and objective reporting. The choice is yours. Thanks for your support. And this leads me to ask the key question here. Is Israel deciding what's going on on the war front, not the US? And the answer is clear. Donald Trump has to take orders from Tel Aviv because you have to remember 3 things. One is the Epstein issue. Two, it has to do with Adelson. Adelson, she, uh, uh, it was a massive donor to the, to the, uh, Donald Trump's campaign. As a matter of fact, his wife, uh, uh, I forgot her name, uh, Adelson, she gave about $300 million to the campaign. So you can see, if somebody gives you $300 million You're gonna have to do whatever they ask for. And that's exactly where— and this is where I believe Netanyahu has been the primary driver, with Trump as willing. So because what Netanyahu is doing to Trump is manipulating him, because you have to think about Netanyahu's thinking for the last 35, 40 years. That's his mission. Because to Netanyahu, this one deeply personal, is very personal. But to Trump, it's not. So what Netanyahu end up stating directly, that US involvement, and I put it in quote, "allows us to do what I have been hoping to do for 40 years, to deliver a crushing blow 'to the terror regime,' end of quote. And that's in itself revealing, to say the least. Because why? By the US engaging in a war on behalf of Israel, the war fulfills Netanyahu's decade-long ambition, not an American strategic imperative. This is where the difference. And that's exactly what most Americans Because you are about 70 to 80% Americans do not want this war. They have no understanding to begin with, and let alone now that spent out of their— gas is already going up here. This is where the problem is because Netanyahu has his own— he has the push the US over the cliff dealing with this, but also has the domestic incentives to all this. And that's why Netanyahu has some sort of personal reasons to keep the war going. First of all, it exposed the failure of the October 7th. And second is the legal battle on charges of bribery, fraud, and breach of trust. You can see why we have what we call the the tail wagging the dog problem. Because what American people is going to come to see this as? The Israeli tail wagging the American dog. That is exactly what's going on, dragging the United States into the Middle East or West Asia. That is not ours. Why are we getting into this conflict to begin with? And that's where you start to see now that the dead bodies, dead of American soldiers, are flying to Dover Air Force Base in Maryland. And Trump has to see the reality. Now, I saw an image, it was heartbreaking, of this little kid. His dad died. He just was holding to the casket, couldn't let go. It's like, if I have to guess, was 6, 7 years old. You know, it was hard to see. And even Americans are asking, well, Mr. Trump, why don't you send your son to fight? Yeah, why don't you send him to fight? And that is where it becomes the question about Trump's role. Is he a partner or is he a puppet? I go with the latter. That's my opinion. Because Donald Trump is taking orders from Tel Aviv. Because it's become clear now that Donald Trump is Netanyahu's instrument. And that is why Iran went ahead and attacked the American bases in the region. Because those countries, even though now you have Qatar and Saudi Arabia pulled about $2 trillion from the US, they start to realize The US is telling you we'll come to your support, but when it matters, it doesn't. Well, trust the American government at your own peril, per se. So the bottom line is that Israel is in the driver's seat and the US is doing its bidding, plain and simple. And with the $1 billion a day of taxpayers' money spent on the ongoing war, Americans are wondering, What the heck is Trump doing? What the heck is it? What, what's in it for us Americans? And why are we launching another war in the region? Even if you are to go with the argument that Trump might have had an appetite for, for sort of something like this, but the goal still less urgency towards it. This is why I can understand, because it's politically costly for him. And this is why Israel is exploring now, believe it or not, exit scenarios from the war. Because this is a possibility, and as a matter of fact, it's been reported inside Israel that Netanyahu is already discussing a ceasefire with Trump. Of course, they're not gonna share that information with you. They're not gonna share that information because Netanyahu wanted to avoid a long war of attrition, which the U.S. has been now pulled into because Israel could not afford it. As I said, I saw the images of the— in Tel Aviv, and Haifa. I'm going to share a clip with you. Let me just open it. And again, this is not from yesterday, this is from a few days ago, but it just shows you what the media is not sharing with most of us to have a much better understanding. Just take a look at this. Let us listen, let us listen. If it is possible, if you— that's where the missile is going. And once again, it's not been disclosed openly, the idea of where we're going here. And that is why this is some sort of a stunning— it's a stunning admission that reveals the war was conceived as a shock operation, not a sustained campaign. And there to the Iranian, they're saying, we will be willing to go at it for the next 2 years. And now with the appointment of the new Supreme Leader, uh, uh, Mojtaba Khamenei, which is, by the way, as I said, I will do a separate video. I don't want to overlap or overwhelm you with the information. He's a different breed altogether. We'll get into that. There's one event that took place inside Iran from the Iranian president himself, Massoud Brzezinski. Let me see if— yeah, right here, his picture. And he issued an apology to the Gulf state, and he was— they lashed out at him, meaning the Iranian establishment lashed out at him for saying so, and rightly so. Are you gonna issue an apology to a country that is allowing the missiles to be launched from its territory? And later on, President Brzezinski said, Oh, my statements was taken out of context. You shouldn't even use the term apology here because that's the reality of it. And here is the thing, and I'm gonna conclude with this 'cause I have to keep it brief here and I have an appointment I have to get to in, once I finish this one here. One of the things that I wanna just conclude with this one has to do with the US pulling missiles out of— from the Korean theater. And the question you need to ask, which is a strategic question, is how will North Korea perceive this move? And that's what I'll do. I'll do a separate, uh, I'll do a separate, uh, video for you about this one here, because in my opinion, in my opinion, this is like an intelligence for free. That's been given to the Korean. So how will North Korea read now the Korean missile withdrawal? Oh man, man, man. Because what North Korea is going to be thinking in terms is that US military assets stationed in South Korea, including the Patriot and the THAAD air defense systems, they are now going to be redeployed to West Asia. Because the campaign against Iran is going to extend beyond next week or the next two weeks. Iranian made it clear, we are not interested in negotiations and we're not interested in ceasefire. It's too late for that. And this isn't hypothetical, because remember back in March 2025, prior to the June attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities. What happened back then? At least two, two Patriot batteries were already redeployed to the region from Asia. It was during that time, remember, the escalation tensions with Iran, with one particular, only one unit that has returned on October 30th, returned back to South Korea. Why? Because they wanted to receive an upgrade onto this. And the same cycle is now repeating itself, except at a larger scale. And this is why it's been reported, it's been reported that up to 150,000 missiles were used during the 12-day war back then. Can you imagine how many missiles we— they need to use this time around? And this is where North Korea's calculus, strategic calculus, I may add, comes in. They're thinking in terms, it's now or never. And their plan is far beyond, as a matter of fact, and again, I don't want to share everything all at once because I'm going to do a video for you about this one here. Just make sure you join me for that because the bottom line to this is that North Korea has been essentially been handed a live intelligence assessment. That's a— because what is this live intelligence assessment? How many missiles it will take to overwhelm U.S. defenses. That's to me, it's an intelligence on a silver platter. And South Korea is alarmed right now. Because the bottom line to this, you know what the bottom line is? Is that North Korea now will certainly, almost certainly interpret the Korean missile withdrawal as a strategic invitation, not necessarily to launch a war. No, that's not what I'm saying. What I'm saying is to do what Iran didn't do back then, is to accelerate its nuclear program, meaning North Korea, its nuclear program and missile programs, because now you have— they are probing about the weakness in the South Korean. And as a matter of fact, Iran and North Korea have been sharing missile technology for a while. And I'll detail all this because I was aware of this one here. And the idea of Kim Jong-un leverage now is going to be very, very, very, very different. Very different. Very different. Anyway, that's all I have to share with you. I have, by the way, two more things to— also, I am working on a story for you. Who was the informant, the spy who led to Khamenei's assassination. I have a theory on it based on facts, but I am waiting to confirm certain aspects. And the involvement of this individual was at the higher ranking, was a general, believe it or not. And this is what I'm going to be sharing with you next time. I take this opportunity to say thank you to Khadija, Khadija, for your support of the channel, uh, for buying me coffee in support of the channel. And of course, I'm gonna say thank you to, uh, Naz M20 for your generosity. Thank you so much for your Super Sticker. You wrote, Dr. O, you think the surprise Netanyahu is talking about is nuclear weapons on Iran? If yes, can Iran survive, and will any other country use nukes on Israel in retaliation? Great question. Uh, the first part, yes, Iran will survive. Because Iran is too big. The size of Iran is too big. Second, Israel will have to decide where they're going to drop the bomb. And the third, there will be a retaliation from North Korea and Pakistan, to my knowledge, because that's the only kind. Now, will the Russians and the Chinese provide something? Maybe, maybe not. As a matter of fact, now the support from Russia and China is increasing towards Iran. This is why I'm gonna be talking tomorrow. Make sure you join me for my conversation with Anna Tengen and Warwick Powell tomorrow at 8:30 PM Central Standard Time, that is. So this is why you are seeing in part of your question regarding this, Naz is the idea of it will be retaliation again, and Iran will be— I'm sorry, Israel will be done for if they ever go to that route. I hope it doesn't get to that, but you never know because they are pressuring Donald Trump to do their bidding. U.S. president, always keep this in mind, U.S. president takes orders from behind the scenes. Anyway, I hope you enjoyed this, and I look forward to seeing you next time. Please make sure to subscribe if you have not done so, and I will greatly, greatly appreciate you if you can support the channel. Here is the link for, you know, the type of information that I, that I, uh, that I present for you here. I spend a lot of time doing the research for you because it's, it's our community. I care for our community, and I wanted to make sure you are armed with, uh, accurate and truthful information. So this way you have an understanding of what's going on. So I look forward to seeing you next time, maybe tomorrow. And as always, remember, geopolitics affects your daily life in more ways than one. Till next time, bye-bye.