What All-Out War Could Look Like Between Iran & Israel?

All right, hello everybody and welcome to Geopolitical Trends, where truth matters. Excited to be with you on this October 28th. Hope you had a, a relaxing weekend and you are just geared up for a new week. So the end of month is here already. Uh, anyway, got an interesting topic for you guys today, a discussion, something I'm very familiar with given, uh, the book that I wrote about Iran uh, in which, which by the way, I will address some of the excerpts from that book because it pertains exactly to what I discussed back then for the possibility of a military conflict between Iran and Israel. And this is exactly, uh, what is happening. Of course, I didn't think about it back then in terms of how it is. It was from a different aspect, but nonetheless, they all converge on the same, uh, outcome, which is a conflict. So, but anyway, this is what I'm gonna be, uh, addressing for you. Uh, first, let me, as always, I— that's our tradition in this community here— I'll say hi to everybody. Uh, let me just take a quick look here. Matt Becky, as always, good to see you. Timeline Dunkley, Truth Seeker, Liang Ping Yu, good to see you, haven't seen you for a while. Uh, Hangin G, good afternoon, Dr. Wualaalou, good afternoon everyone, Geopolitical Trends. Uh, Hank, by the way guys, it's from the UK, so just FYI to those who read his comments. Willie Holman, as always. Juan Casey, Coach Hoy Hoy. Aristotle King, uh, good to see you. And Bob Cack, good to see you. Thunderbolt, good to see you as always. All right guys, let's get into this. I got a lot to cover, and remember, I'm not gonna be talking about what type of missiles or rockets were used and so forth. All that, to me, it's not irrelevant. It just— you got to have to think in the big picture, which what I'm going to be, uh, providing you. And this is what the analysis is all about. So before I'll delve deeper, I got some housekeeping things for you. Just quickly here, remember to join me tomorrow for live, uh, stream for an interesting topic. This has to do with India-China border agreement. So I am, I'm digging into— there are certain aspects of the agreements I, I can't find the details of it. Now, was this by design? I don't know. I can't jump to conclusions yet. But, but anyway, I will be addressing, uh, this fascinating development. But I also have to address the history of the border conflict, especially if we are to go back to what year, guys? Does anybody know? There's a specific year when it comes down to, uh, India-China tensions. Let me just see quick if you can type in that in the chat box. Very— because that year, uh, was a major turning point into the tensions regarding the border between China and India. Let me just see quickly if anybody knows the year. And by the way, give me, guys, thumbs up if you can hear me clearly. Because I'm again, I just— I'm using a new sound system which I bought from DJI when I was in China, believe it or not. Uh, Hank, 1947. Yeah, that was the old one. I'm talking after that. Uh, Alistair O'Keefe, you're closer, you're closer. '67. In the '60s, in the '60s, because it's a major year. Uh, Li Yang, you got it, 1962. So I already found out. Oh, thank you, Eric, appreciate you, man. Uh, I'm gonna be addressing that. So anyway, tomorrow, uh, remember to join me if you can make it. Uh, also, I am working on an analysis. I'll do a recorded video for you, specific analysis regarding the Kazan Summit. I know I addressed it here in a live stream, but this is completely different when I do analysis stuff, guys. This is much more in-depth because I have different setting by which I can express those opinions. So be on the lookout for that. And the last thing I want to share with you, which is bad news for Germany, it's just Volkswagen just closed the last 3 plants and cut about tens of thousands of jobs inside Germany. You all know what it means. You all know what it means. So, so anyway, let's get into our topic. It's And, uh, we're going to start— first of all, we're going to start with the key questions, because these key questions is what's going to set the tone for what lies ahead. So in retaliation for, uh, Israel, uh, attack on Saturday, which took place on Saturday morning, what will Iran response, uh, consist of, if any? Because still, Iran, in my opinion, is not— Iran is scared. Iran is, is strategically calculating risk versus benefits. That's my opinion on that. Second question: is it a foregone conclusion that an all-out war is inevitable? And as I argued in my Iran book, uh, the possibility for an open war, it's, it's going to be devastating, not just for two countries, but for the region for that matter. And now with the circumstances the way they are, you're looking at the involvements of major powers. And we all know what it means. Third question is, you know, will Russia play any role into all this? Now don't, don't tell me you are not factoring Russia's role into this. And again, I, I addressed this in my Iran book, and I will share it with you as to why is it important for you to understand the role of Russia into this. And the last question is, what will the shifting geopolitical landscape in West Asia, or Middle East that is, look like? Because it certainly is going to be some major dynamics. And those what I'm— this questions, uh, are what I'm going to provide you answers for and put it in form of an analysis for you. So, so as we know, Israel has carried out, uh, what it described, and I put this in quote because it's their word, precise and targeted Now there is one thing I need you guys to always be aware of when it comes down to conflict like this. It's going to become a war of information as well, okay? Don't just count on, uh, the attacks being just missiles and so forth. There is another dimension of the conflict or the tensions or the war, whatever you want to call it, and that's called the information So information has to be factored into this. So when Israel says we had a precise and targeted, was it really? When Iran says we countered the Israeli missiles, did they? You know what I mean? You have to— we're not judging any party here. It's just you have to keep that in mind. So, and this is what Israel did. With this, uh, with this operations in retaliation to Iran's launching a barrage of missile strikes, uh, earlier in this month. I was aware of it, uh, because I was in China and I just didn't want to do anything about, uh, the Middle West Asia from there because that trip was for the community specifically. So, and this happens of course as the latest exchanges between those two countries. And there is one key factor to all this, actually there are two And the question for you, which I'm going to ask you into this, why is Netanyahu pushing for this war? So if you guys can provide a short answer, a word or two, because there is one thing specific, specific to this, uh, uh, and this is why you are seeing, uh, these operations moving forward. Of course, for us, the US, we are pushing behind the scenes. As a matter of fact, more than just the US, And I put a post for you in the community with an airplane that has the flags, and one flag wasn't there, by the way. You know which country was that? It was Canada, because Canada is sending weapons to Israel off the books. Most Canadians have no clue about this one. Let me see your answer, guys, about exactly why Netanyahu is pushing for this, uh, domination and resources. Yeah, to a degree, but there is one thing very, very, very specific. Uh, karakolak, it keeps him out of prison. Absolutely, because this one has to do with the upcoming trial in Israel in December. Most legal analysts argue that he will be indicted, meaning Netanyahu, for bribes, corruption, that is. So however, according to the Constitution, if a sitting prime minister in office cannot be indicted The same thing for us here in the United States. A sitting president, even if the president gets involved in corruption, he can be indicted. He or she has to wait till he or she leaves office. But at the same time, for us, the system is corrupted to its core anyway. Nothing new there. So, uh, but this is the key reason I need you guys to keep in mind. You're going to be hearing information from different sources, uh, as to why we want to prevent Iran from, uh, becoming more powerful or influential in Middle East or West Asia, uh, to prevent it from becoming a nuclear power. All this, yeah, there is a degree of it, but there is one specific key, and that one is for Netanyahu to avoid jail time. That is one of the key aspects to that. Second one that is part of this analysis has to do with geography. Why this will be important for you to know? And I'm gonna share a picture with you here, and I'll put it in perspective for you as to why is it important. Uh, let me share the bigger one, uh, uh, that I have from World Atlas. Then I'll show the other one because it's more, more specific right here. All right, let me share the screen with you. Share screen and world map. And again, I give credit to World Atlas for this particular map. There is the map here, guys. Just, uh, okay, it's not as, as big as I was hoping, but anyway, why is this important? It is important because— let me— I'm going to stop this one here and share this other one here that I have. It is important for you to understand geography of this for Israel to conduct, uh, uh, those attacks. Okay, now this is an old picture, by the way. This is from 2023. That's F-20— F-35, I'm sorry. This is during graduation of the Israeli, uh, pilots. Uh, uh, they were just demonstr— but my point is, why am I showing this, especially in conjunction with the map? Once again, you look at the map, you look at where Israel is, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Jordan, And look where Iran is, which means what? It means that for Israel to fly all the way to, uh, attack Iran, one key thing that it's going to need is refueling. Israel doesn't have those capabilities. Of course, the US will have to provide that. Now, no matter what you hear, at least to my knowledge, and when I was in Washington, that was one of the hurdles for any operations for Israel regarding, uh, uh, uh, uh, Iran. Now, the case was different regarding Iraq. Two different things, because Iran— uh, I'm sorry, Israel did want to attack the, uh, military facilities in Iraq. In Iran is different case. So that begs the question, did any of the local countries or regional countries allow their airspace to be used by Israel? Yes or no? What do you guys think? And I'm going to share later on after I read your comments. In your opinion, do you believe— oh, thank you, Robert Marley, thank you, you, you wrote, welcome back, Dr. O. Uh, uh, uh, you have to think in terms of, did any country in the region— and you will know exactly which one— allow their airspace to be used? Yes or no? Uh, Teresa, you say no. Uh, same thing. Yeah, yes, like Jordan. Okay, Kara Kulak, not Iraq for sure. Uh, Army with Harmony, you say yes. Steve Tang, you say yes. Uh, Robert Malley, you say yet not in public, which is for sure. Yeah, well, there are these concerns, as I mentioned. Uh, Timeline Dunkley, Jordan, Matt Becky, Uh, you say, where is Matt Becky? Yeah, no, because they will be involved in the conflict for sure. But, but there's this back and forth on this. Well, here is why it's important for you to understand. And again, I just want to, want to get you involved in a conversation. But there is one particular aspect, because right on Sunday morning, right on Sunday morning, Saudi Arabia and Jordan came forward with their public statements that We have not allowed our airspace to be used by any party. They didn't say by Israel, but by any party. You and I know where Saudi Arabia and Jordan stands vis-à-vis Israel, where Saudi Arabia and Jordan stands vis-à-vis Iran, even though there is one key factor, one key factor that the US right now is pissed. I use the term, it's pissed about. And this one has to do with the upcoming military drills between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Whoever thought? And I'm gonna cover this for you once again. I wrote the book about Iran, I wrote the book about Saudi Arabia because it was in a different time and the possibility of this wasn't there at all. But this is the beauty of geopolitics. You don't know what, what's coming. Look at just with BRICS. Now BRICS is turning the global landscape upside down. G7 will become useless moving forward, given half of the population of the world reside within BRICS. The same arguments I can be making about this. However, for Jordan and Saudi Arabia to come forward with these statements right away, it tells me that they were concerned meaning they, the monarchies, about their survival, not about Palestine, not about the conflict, not about Iran, not about whatever, not about their own population. It was about the survival of the monarchy. And interesting enough, the same thing happened yesterday. Most— and I have a link, an article for you about this one here, guys, is that most of the, uh, uh, uh, Arab— most of the Gulf states also announced that, oh, we are not going to allow our airspace or any launching from any military installation on our soil. So, and this is why to me it was, it was shocking that Saudi Arabia and Jordan made it clear that on Saturday the same day Israel was launching the, the, the attacks on Iran, that their airspace was not used in, in, in Israel's overnight, uh, airstrikes. Jordan says the same thing, slightly different. It says, and I quote, uh, Jordanian military said no military aircraft had been allowed to cross Jordanian airspace. Personally, I won't buy it knowing what I know. I won't buy that argument. But again, the reason for it is, I bet you, both monarchies are kind of start to feel, sense the temperature, the public temperature and anger about what's taking place in Palestine. That's why most Arabs, all they do is talk. You all know this, this is nothing new. Uh, but because more the concern— most of the concern ain't about Palestine because they give a hoot about Palestine. They've always did that. It is about the survival of the monarchy. Even Qatar itself, you know, Qatar strongly condemned the Israeli attack on Iran and calling for more negotiations for ceasefire. Come on, how long you gonna be calling for this ceasefire nonsense? You know, there is a saying to those who speak Arabic, you will understand what I'm saying, uh, basically it translates to Arabs agree not to agree. So that is just, uh, uh, uh, I just want to put this for you in perspective because you don't, uh, the way mainstream media covers this kind of events is just Oh, Israel attacks in retaliation, Iran's gonna retaliate as well, whatever. But they don't put the big picture as to who might have facilitated all this. Once again, guys, just take a look, and, and you're smart enough, you are smart enough to see. Tell me, aren't you gonna be crossing some airspace of some, some country in the area? How will Israel— that means if Israel will go forward with this, that means they have to go all the way around, right? You have to go all the way around Turkey, you have to go all the way around the Red Sea at the bottom, all the way to Somalia area to go around to get into Iran. That just doesn't make any sense. So, and this is why I want to start with this one here for you to put this in perspective. So It was great article, uh, uh, in— not in Western media, and I provided the link. It's called Al-Bawaba. So, and again, guys, I try to bring you information and, and do my own analysis for you from different sources, not the traditional ones. And this one was really spot on, and I had to read it. Uh, it was written by Osama Ali. And, uh, the interesting about this article— and, and again, I will put the link for you later on is that Iran already went ahead and sort of alerted the UN, the UN, that it, it reserves the right to retaliate. Why will Iran do that? Because obviously Israel didn't, but in Israel case, it's a violation of international law. Iran didn't want to do the same. What Iran proceeded with is to alert the UN that we will retaliate. In other words, we put it on the table. This way we are not violating international law because we were attacked. See the difference, guys? Now with this, Iran will decide on the type of retaliation. This is why you are seeing statements coming out of Washington saying already that Iran should not retaliate against Israel. Yeah, yeah, that's what the Secretary of Defense is saying. Uh, and I believe I have a quote from him saying this one here. Uh, let me get it for you guys. He said, and I quote, this is, uh, Lloyd Austin, Secretary of Defense. He said, and I quote, uh, uh, Iran should not. Just, just, just how arrogant of us to be thinking in these terms. We dictating You know, he said Iran should not make the mistake of responding to Israel's strikes, which should mark the end of this exchange. Another word— end of quote— another word, by having Israel attacking Iran, that's where the exchange should end. That mean Israel— Iran shouldn't retaliate on that. Now the key question is Who gives us the right to dictate to country when to retaliate or not if it is attacked? And that's to me the sign of arrogance, but also it's a sign of concern that the US knows exactly what lies ahead. And this is where that for, uh, question I put forth for you as far as is it a foregone conclusion that an all-out war is inevitable. The second part of it is the role of Russia, and this is what I need you guys to understand, the big picture of all this. And that's where the analysis comes in. So, uh, uh, now the question becomes, is what will Iran do? What kind of retaliation it will conduct? Because so far, the conversation inside the establishment in Iran is that even the policymakers in the parliament are in support of retaliation. Does that mean gloves off? Does that mean they're ready for whatever outcome? Because it won't be pretty, I can guarantee you that. So, and that is where I see the challenges that lie ahead geopolitically and militarily, how this exchange is going to go beyond This is why those countries in the region are saying, well, we're just going to have to sort of not allow any, uh, operation launched from our soil. Yeah, right. Can you imagine Bahrain telling the Americans, no, you can't do anything? Or United Arab Emirates? Or Jordan? Or Saudi Arabia? I mean, let's face it. And this is where also the Secretary of Defense kind of reiterated the, uh, commitments of the United States to the support of, uh, of, of Israel's security. All the while, our economy is going down, uh, the national debt is rising beyond belief, Americans are struggling to make ends meet, and the infrastructure is crumbling even faster and faster. And yet the money, our tax dollars, is spent on countries that have nothing to do with our interest. But till the American people wake up, I don't see anything changing. So now, as I mentioned earlier, Iran's notifying the UN of its right to retaliate. That falls within international law. Because if you look at— and, and I don't have the full detail of it, I remember reading it at some point— is that within the Charter of the UN is that countries reserve the right to defend themselves against aggression. This is why Iran wanted to play both sides, the military and the diplomatic cards at the same time. So, so, and, uh, uh, I just have one picture here to show, and this is why the Iranian president is moving with the, with the statements, uh, and even the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is, is kind of— no, no final decisions, by the way, has, has been made as to what type, but they are putting it together. So, and by the way, the image you're looking at, that's the Iranian president Massoud Brazilian, uh, looks at AMAD missiles, uh, which those were displayed during the annual military parade marking the anniversary of the outbreak of the 1980-1988 war. Which war am I talking about here, guys? If you can type in, in the chat box. And, and by the way, I give credit of that picture to, uh, Ata Kinari of AFP, Associated French Press. Yeah, which war am I referring to here, guys? Let me just see in the chat box. Uh, you got it, YA, you got it. Iran-Iraq War. Son of Ali Kubalan, you got it. You guys got this one. So it's the, uh, uh, Iraq-Iran, uh, uh, war that took place back in the— between '80— which, by the way, I'm sure you know this, guys, but we were supplying weapons to both sides despite we don't have any diplomatic, uh, relations with Iran. We were supplying the weapon— the weapons behind the scenes, and the money we were getting for that was used in Latin America to support the Sandinistas. So, and this is where that, uh, uh, the former, uh, uh, Colonel Oliver North took the fall for Ronald Reagan, and later on Ronald Reagan came, uh, in a public statements apologizing and all that stuff. Yeah, come on, man, you knew what you were doing. No, and like I mentioned, all this, all this, uh, uh, developments taking place, uh, against four main, uh, uh, uh, uh, key points. I already mentioned the first one about Saudi Arabia and, and, and Jordan denying their airspace to be used by Israel. So now the second one— that is the second, third, and fourth, but you decide which one is most important. I'm going to just share the information with you and you make up your own mind regarding this. The second point has to do with Hezbollah. What did Hezbollah just do? He warned the residents of more than 25 settlements in northern Israel to leave immediately. What does it mean? Because at the time of when the media is focusing on Israel attack on Iran, northern Israel is being bombarded by Hezbollah. Of course, Israel is also, uh, shelling certain villages in southern Lebanon, but you got now Israeli soldiers dying in, in the, in, in, in, in the border area between southern and Southern Lebanon and northern Israel. So what the Hezbollah did and the Israelis, the Israeli settlements, because there is already massive migration from that location, 3 million people left. That was few weeks ago. And now 25 settlements have been warned to evac immediately. So you read between the line what comes to this. The third point is This is regarding Turkey's desire to join BRICS. Okay, now this has nothing to do with BRICS, of course, that's from an economic perspective. Why is this important? You know, as an analyst, I have to think about it from a different angle altogether. This one, because it coincides with Russia's stance on Israel against Iran. Because when you take the stance of Israel— of Russia against Israel, when you take the stance of Turkey against Israel, when you take the stance of Iran against Israel, they all converge on one thing. And that's why Turkey— the, the, the third point of Turkey's desire to join BRICS coincided also with Russia's position in support of Iran against Israel. And I will share with you, uh, uh, later on some excerpts from my book in which I addressed this relationship in depth. Then there is the fourth element. As I said, it comes on a hill of four key points. First one is Jordan, Saudi Arabia's statement that they didn't allow their airspace to be used. Second one is Hezbollah warning residents of more than 25 settlements in northern Israel to leave, which was on Saturday morning, by the way. And to leave immediately. Third one is the Turkey desire to join BRICS coinciding with Russia's stance on Israel. And the fourth point is the outcome of the US elections, because we're only a few weeks or so, two weeks or so. All this will shape the trajectory of— could it be that Iran, uh, and, and I've been saying this before, And, and if I'm wrong, I'm wrong, but that was my, my, my, my thinking, the way how I see events pertain to the geopolitical trajectory. My thinking has always been that Iran will be very calculating depending on who's going to be in the White House. They are waiting to see. The same arguments can be made about Russia. The same, uh, arguments can be made about other countries. So for Israel, Israel kind of doesn't care. It's just because Israel has an influence on the US government. So it won't matter who's in charge, despite what you hear. It's a fact. It's reality. Most Americans do not even understand those dynamics. And of course, we all— you all answered that question earlier. Is that one of the key factors of all these dynamics is that, uh, uh, excuse me, Israeli prime minister, uh, wants the war so he can avoid, uh, the trial in December regarding the— his corruption case. That is one of the key aspects. So, so far, the Hezbollah, uh, I'm sorry, the, uh, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in conjunction with the IRGC, are already arguing, uh, for a, uh, coming up with, with a way to retaliate against Israel. At the same time, the Iranian foreign minister, uh, Argashi, is already warning the UN. So it will, it will go from two trajectories, one on the military aspect and the other one on the diplomatic side. Because here's the thing, this particular call for the UN, guess where it's going to have to go? It's going to have to go to the UN Security Council. You all know what it means. The US is going to veto whatever, right? And this is why this brings to the fore the fundamental question that the UN Security needs to be overhauled. That setting is over. You know, you can't have just 5 countries controlling the votes, you know. And then this has nothing to do with Russia and, and China or France, UK, and the— no, no, no, no. The system itself is not working. And when the system is not working, you can expect a good outcome. You can expect a fair and just outcome. This is exactly where the issue with the UN Security Council— it is my opinion that the reform is, is much— it's much needed, more than ever. And now, not 10 years from today. Reform that. This shouldn't be, in my opinion, it shouldn't be a permanent members of the UN. No, there is no such thing. It shouldn't be, you know. Do on a rotation, a rotational basis, on yearly thing. Or the other hand, you don't even need that. You know, put things to vote. That's like the problem that exists in BRICS now, you know, put it to vote, not by consensus. No, to me that's the true meaning of what the— it's like for us here, guys, sometimes when I ask your opinion for a topic, that was the reason why I do it, because I like to have your input, and that gives me an idea about the majority, what does the majority want. That doesn't mean the minority's opinions are ignored, whatever. No, I just will address that topic another time. The same thing with the UN here. It needs, it needs a, a, a major overhaul to change that one. So, and this is why if you are to think, and this, by the way, like I said earlier, the, the, the, the one thing you need to keep in mind as these things develop is the information war. You know, here is Gilad Erdan. He's the Israeli ambassador to the UN. Okay, here is what he's saying. What he's saying is that, uh, uh, uh, uh, he's, he's showing a video of drones heading towards Israel to the UN Security Council on Sunday. Okay, well, if you are showing the drones hitting Israel, why didn't you show the missiles that they were heading towards Iran? I know it's his country, whatever, but, but again, just to give you an idea, it's a war of information as well. So, and to go back to my point about, uh, the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, uh, moving forward with that decision in conjunction with the IRGC chief with the support of the political establishment. Because you need to understand the social setting in Iran as we speak. You know, society in Iran is divided between those who really wanted to support the establishment and those who are against. And, and it's not a secret, guys. It's not a secret. Because there is one thing, as I argued in, in my, uh, in, in my Iran book, That's one of the key for the establishments in Iran is to ensure the survival of its ruling. It's no different than the monarchy, just in a different setting. So now when you get the new president, uh, uh, Masoud, who's trying to open up to the West, the hardliners are pushing back by saying, is this what you want? And I can see the arguments of that. You know, I noticed certain things. For example, when I was in Taiwan, you know, the generation there, they have no clue, no idea about what lies ahead. Why? Because it's the influence of the West. So, uh, as I said, this is the, uh, the image of the, uh, F-35., during, uh, the graduation ceremony of the Israeli Air Force. And this is an old picture, guys, is from, uh, June 2023. Uh, I just wanted to share that with you. So here's the war cabinet here of the Israeli, uh, following the developments on Saturday. So, and this one here has to highlight the idea of the military command, uh, uh, during the monitoring of the progress of the recent strikes, uh, uh, on Iran. And the part of it has to do with the IDF, uh, seeing where things are. Like, again, why am I saying this? Is the war of information. So, and this picture here, guys, uh, I looked at it, uh, this is, uh, one of the bases of, uh, uh, of Iran. There is a specific name for this base, if, if I can remember the name of it. Let me see, uh, where I, uh, I located the name of their base here. Well, I forgot it. So, but you can see just the development of certain fighter jets, the older models. This is a Russian model here, the third one. So I just wanted to share this with you. So let me, uh, let me share, uh, with you my own analysis based on my own research when I wrote the, uh, uh, the Iran book, because it pertained to exactly, uh, what is taking place here. And I wanted to put it in perspective for you. And by the way, guys, just prepare some questions. I'm going to answer them for you, uh, towards the end here. So So my argument, uh, was at the time, and even talking in the future per se, because that's what you do as an analyst. You have to, you know, it's not 100% that those events will, those events will materialize, but you, you kind of, because it's hard to make predictions, but at the same time you can get as close as it can be. So, uh, as I said, uh, I argued in my previous writings, that another point that merits emphasis, which is the political debt— the political debt, I'm sorry, not that, debt, the EBT— that Iran owes Russia and China cannot be paid only in economic matters, energy contracts in this case, but also in a strategic vision. So the possibility, I wrote back then, exists of Iran entering into a military treaty of some sort clearing the way for China and Russia to establish military and naval bases on Iranian soil, similar arrangements to the United States has with Bahrain. And this rapprochement between Russia, uh, and Iran would be tested on a host of areas, including which at that time was the civil war in Syria, the turmoil in Yemen, and the targeting of certain groups in the region. While I cannot predict— as I wrote back then— while I cannot predict the future of relations among nations, I believe Russia will remain flexible through its strategy in West Asia or Middle East, a region changing by the hour where ambiguity and chaos are the order of the day. But what is very important about this to understand? You need to understand the history of Russia and Iran, because there is a history there. Those dynamics, this historical aspect, and the changes of the geopolitical landscape compelled now Iran to reconsider its options. Why? Because Iran chose to establish economic and military ties with Russia, yet many security analysts at that time still question the meaning of that relationship or rapprochement. I counter-argued that by saying, in my opinion, that confusion is explained after one acquires a better understanding of the historical background that shaped Russia and Iran relations over the years to make it what it is today. This is what the important part. So the rapprochement between Iran and Russia serves both countries' interests and furthers their own objective separately. So despite opposite trajectories, which is became now very, very clear. And, and the way to highlight this point for you before I continue, the two separate trajectories is that for Russia, the objective now, it's not just supporting Iran, It is about pushing against the US regarding the Ukraine conflict. For Iran, is to ensure that Israel will be pushed back against, but on the other hand is also to cement Iran's position within the Arab world regarding the support for Palestine. So two separate objection, uh, trajectory. There is one third common that they all share. And you know what it is? Sanctions by the same enemy. This is why, again, you have to put into context Iran being part of the BRICS, because he will push further for that assimilation into creating the financial system to bypass the US dollar. That's what I'm saying. Uh, uh, their, uh, uh, the rapprochement between Iran and Russia serves both countries' interests and further their objective despite the opposite trajectory. It also serves a far greater— yeah, far greater, uh, uh, sort of strategic, uh, aim. And what is that aim? Is challenging the US in view of the United States' decline in leadership in the region and around the world. Because at the start, at the time of this conversation here, guys, we have, we, we have no more credibility on the world stage despite what others say. The US still there. It's my country, it pains me to say this, but again, you all know where I stand on this. I don't shy away from saying it. I know I get criticized, I know I get these negative comments, whatever, but hey, they are entitled to express their opinion. For the fact that I am stating facts, our credibility has been shattered beyond the repair. Simple as that. This is the other aim, the strategic one, for both countries, because they saw— so both countries, meaning Iran and Russia in this case, have forged a strategic partnership At other times, they seem to be far at odds. Why am I talking about this one here? The odds goes back to 1829. This is where the history comes in, because this seemed to, at the time, this puzzling relationship— it is puzzling to some. Now it became clear, at least for me. This puzzling relationship, I wrote back, uh, back then in my book uh, traces its route to 1829 when Russia and Iran signed the Treaty of Turkmenashev. To those who are familiar with this, and I'm not going to go into the historical details of it, but suffice it to say, during this treaty, 1829, uh, Turkmenashev, uh, in which Iran lost to Russia the territory of modern-day Which country, guys, can you guess? It's very strategically located. Just look at the map because I want to test your knowledge here, guys, on the geography part. Which country? Because it plays a role right now, and I'm gonna do a live, uh, stream for you about this particular country. Let me see if you can— you guys can guess. We've stirred up the pot in that country about 8 months ago. Let me see if you can— yeah, it starts with an A to make it a little easier for you. Not Tajikistan, no, not Afghanistan. Duzapa. Matt Becky, Azerabaijan. Azerabaijan. That is one of the key, but you have to go back to history, 1829, for that Treaty of Turkmeneshev. Okay. Now, I believe, as I wrote back then, that one should view Iran-Russia relations within this historical context, one that left deep, deep psychological scars and a sense of betrayal among Iranians, especially their perception of Russia. But the geopolitical dynamics of today have changed the calculation. So fast forward to when Iran declared itself a nuclear power Ties between Moscow and Tehran eventually will be vital to sustaining international equilibrium. Why is this important? Because you have to add China to the mix. And given that now Iran is in BRICS, makes perfect sense. This is why I always warn against BRICS just inviting whomever. There is no conversation about we might want to consider inviting Philippines. You got to be out of your mind. To bring in Philippines into the fold, because Philippines will be doing the bidding of the West inside BRICS. There is already a problem with India inside. Why bring in countries that will be a deadweight? Why bring in countries that have a lot of baggage with them? This just doesn't make any sense. That's the way I see it, guys. And again, uh, you might disagree with my assessment here, and you are entitled to this, and And please express your opinion because we are here to learn from each other. You know, this channel here is about learning. This is not about, you know, uh, I am the one talking here and whatever I say— no, no, no, no, no. That's what a really, uh, uh, uh, a good community is all about, intellectually speaking. So that's when you differentiate between, uh, uh, uh, an analyst with a some expertise and an analyst. You got the idea. So here's the thing: ties between Moscow and Tehran eventually will be vital for sustaining international equilibrium, as I mentioned. Now with China in the picture, at least when it comes to who is influencing events on the ground in the region, West Asia as a whole. Well, think about it now, guys. Who's influencing the events? The US? No. Israel? No. Despite what you're seeing, what's going on is behind the scenes. And this, uh, upcoming military drills between Iran and, and, uh, uh, uh, Saudi Arabia— I bet you Washington will be preparing something for Saudis. I won't be surprised. Still, both Iran and Russia interests are on the opposite end of the spectrum. Their cooperation, no matter how limited I argued back then, no matter how limited, is essential. And here we are. That was the reason why I worded certain things certain ways back then, thinking, what if the next 5 years, what if the next 10 years, we change the dynamics on the ground? And here we are. So, so I wonder to what extent their relationship remains one of convenience, and under what circumstances that relationship could turn bad. The possibility is always there, believe it or not. Suffice it to say that Russia, Iran, and China for that matter are pragmatic allies. I am not being naive, as I wrote back then, when it comes to international relations, especially when addressing both Russia and Iran. I believe that should Iran flex its military and economic muscle to the point of impacting Russia's energy sector, especially in the economy, Moscow will have no choice but to become an adversary, even though I don't see that happening now, given that now Iran is in BRICS. So they're gonna work this one. And the bottom line, just to continue this part here, guys, the bottom line is that Russia's anticipation of the geopolitical shift in West Asia is not about the region, I wrote back then, but rather the future of global order and what shapes it may take. It's exactly what I wrote. It will be interesting to learn how the United States intend to address this challenge given its ambiguous foreign policy towards the region. The subsequent sections, that's when I addressed the details about, uh, uh, about China's involvement as well. So my point in all this, guys, is just to highlight to you the big picture. When you think in terms of, you know, uh, well, now Israel is attacking Iran, and, and you have to see the big picture. You have to see, of course, uh, uh, the Prime Minister, uh, uh, Bibi, is doing it for some ulterior motives. But also you have to think about the shifting geopolitical landscape in the region that's going to impact more countries to now go back to the drawing board and recalculate their line, or, or, uh, sort of, uh, rethink their strat— their strategies and their alliances. Yeah. And what coincided with all this, as I mentioned earlier about Turkey desire to join, uh, BRICS, coincided with, of course, Turkey being a NATO member. And all of a sudden you get now NATO member being a part of BRICS. But also there is the other calculus for Turkey as well. Iran is no different, Saudi is no different. And makes me wonder now, while I'm thinking about it, why did the Saudi prince didn't attend BRICS and only sent the foreign minister? Makes you just wonder and think in terms of how these, uh, dynamics work. And all this shaped up to be as Washington is thinking. Because there is a concern, is a quiet— at least based on my conversation with my own contacts, there is a quiet conversation behind closed doors in Washington about this serious concerns that we're having about the dollar. Like I said last time, don't misinterpret this, guys. The dollar is not gonna be going away tomorrow or anytime soon, but it's coming. So that is what I want you guys to understand. As, as to those of you who answers about Afghanistan, Tajikistan, uh, those are playing a role into all that, and I will do a video for you guys. As a matter of fact, here is my thinking, uh Next time I go to China, which I plan on going anyway in due time, I am gonna go to Xinjiang region for a reason, you know. Of course, to debunk the lies that we all— you all know the story, right? You all know the lies that's been mentioned. But that's not a reason why I'm going for that, you know. I'm going for something that I addressed back in 2002, 2003, on my— 2002, that was my first stop in Afghanistan. Uh, September 2001. Yeah, it was 2002, right after, I think 6 months after 9/11. So, and, and pardon me, uh, knowing what I know as far as the history of that part of the world, it became clear to me as to where the concern is going to be. And we are not here in Afghanistan for what we say we are. We are here for a much bigger picture. And the bigger picture consists of the neighboring countries, because remember, if you look at them— I don't have the map in front of me of Xinjiang here— to look at the neighboring countries, 8 countries including Afghanistan, Tajikistan, Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan, and so forth. It's about the strategic, it's about the resources. And of course it became more evident to us in 2013. What happened in 2013? I'll give you a hint, guys, with China 2013, what happened? You all should know 2013. Just think, think what happened in 2013. Major announcement. Uh, no, no, no, no, no. Uh, uh, Koly, 2013. 13, yeah, 2013. Just thank China. No, no, no, don't thank Ukraine. Coup was about 2016, but it was before that. Just China, just China, 2013. Who came to power in 2013? I see 2013, but there's one specific 2013. Oh, Hamad Sidi. You got it, BRI. It's because it became clear to us that if this thing China is announcing, the BRI, is gonna go through that area, we are f— you guys, you guys got the idea. Because of the resources and also the dimension, the trajectory of the shipment of goods and so forth, Central Asia has always been— the Euro-Asia region has always been a key, a key. Just look at the history, go back, go way back, and look at the history of the countries that controlled that part of the world. So for us, when we went to Afghanistan, we were in Afghanistan, but we're looking elsewhere. We're looking at how we can ensure we manage this particular area by not allowing it to grow economically. And I give you a quick example, just like I know I only spent 2 days in Xinjiang as an example. Xinjiang, if you only know the history of that village when it was only about 25,000 or 30,000 people max, look what it is today— over 20 million people and a vibrant city. Economics, economics, guys, economics. This is the exact thing. And this brings me to address one particular thing I just find out this morning, and I'm gonna have to, uh, uh, uh, call some people I know overseas to really, really, really confirm this for me, that Pakistan announced now that it discovered oil near its waters, massive amount of oil. You don't know what it means. What I found very interesting is that just last week IMF is willing to give Pakistan a billion dollar in loans. Think about it. Once again, actions have to be, you know, uh, put, uh, put into context as to the behavior of countries. So I am going to do a video for you down the road, uh, about Azerbaijan, uh, and all that region, Eurasia. And I'm gonna do a video for you about the Pakistan oil discovery, because if, if it is confirmed— and I know where to look for that and who to ask— you can see the trajectory of what lies ahead. But you can also see why— here is the question— why we are working on moving naval assets to South China Sea already. At the time I was in China, there were movements of U.S. naval assets to South China Sea. This is why you need to understand why Philippines will not be a good fit for BRICS, because we are using Philippines, we put in Philippines to the fore, we put in the forefront regarding the tensions with China, sacrifice Philippines. So all these dynamics, guys, This is what geopolitics is all about, and I always want you to keep that in mind as you move forward. All right, let me answer some of your questions. Once again, just to remind you, remember to join me tomorrow for the live stream. Uh, I also want to say, uh, thank you to those who continue to support the channel. Uh, I'm very, very grateful, uh, for your support. Uh, Yeah, it goes without you, it will be nothing. I'll tell you this, you know, and I won't be here, simple as that. Because I do speaking engagements, guys, you know, and, and, and, and usually those, those speaking engagements, uh, they are very involved in the research amount and all that stuff. But this means a lot to me. This means a lot to me. And again, I am not this wealthy guy. Uh, you know, I, I do my own thing and I work diligently and I'm very, uh, very— what's the word— when it comes down to finances, I'm very, very particular about how, uh, the dollar is spent. It's just the responsibility that comes with it. So, so I appreciate your support, guys, for the channel. And by the way, to those, uh, uh, uh, you might want to buy my books, just check it out on Buy Me Coffee. There are my books there. I'm, I'm working on putting up the Russian book So now the Russian book, uh, it will be there in due time. I'm gonna take care of that. All right, let me see some questions from you guys. And appreciate you being here, appreciate you keeping the conversation civil, and appreciate you keeping an eye for— you all know, by the way, one of you mentioned that you guys don't get notification from YouTube. Is there a reason for why that is? Do you know? I don't know. Also hit the like button, guys, and please, please spread the word about the channel. I need to cross 100,000 by the end of next month. Yeah, that's the objective. So I want to thank Amanda, whomever this Amanda is. Thank you for putting that, uh, note on, on X regarding the channel. So I'm very grateful to you. So, all right, let me take the first question. Uh, Ramples One, Dr. O, let me show it on the screen, everybody sees it. Why do you think Brazil blocked the entrance of Venezuela, Cuba, and Nicaragua to the BRICS? Ah, that's— I don't have an answer for that, guys. I'll, I'll say straightforward, I wish I do. I am gonna be looking into this, given that I believe, uh, 2025, uh, BRICS Summit is going to be in Brazil, if I'm not mistaken. But I can only imagine if Mr. Lula has been, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, or if Mr. Lula received a phone call from Washington, I won't be surprised. Yeah, don't assume, guys, that— yeah, Lula might be fiery here and there, whatever, but don't assume. You know, I used to think the same way before, till I saw things with my own eyes. So, or how about Brazil now? We— uh, not Brazil, Argentina, where wanted to reconsider its position regarding BRICS. I say no, no, you don't want to bring in dead weight. If BRICS is to move to concrete, to deeds, to make a dent on the international global stage, they can't have dead weight. They can't. So Venezuela, Cuba, and Nicaragua makes you just wonder why. Well, yeah, I, I don't have an answer for that. I wish I could. In the case of Venezuela, makes perfect sense to me as a massive oil producer. And, uh, Venezuela had a massive amount of gold also, even though the Brits, uh, didn't return the stolen gold, uh, to Venezuela. They need to do that. Same thing, the stolen gold, uh, that needs to go back to India from the UK. All right, let me see another question from you. I'm gonna scroll all the way back up. Just in case I miss something. Oh, oh, Danny, Danny, I want to say thank you for your, uh, Super Sticker. Good morning, my cool Dr. O. Thank you so much, and I appreciate your comment and support, Danny. Uh, let me see, uh, if there is a question here. So I'm scrolling down, guys, just to Uh, let's see if it shows up here. And once again, remember, tomorrow I will be talking about the border agreements between India and, uh, uh, China. So shall be interesting. Uh, oh, Thunderbolt question: I'm writing an article titled BRICS+ and the New Multipolar World Order. What is your advice? Okay, from which angle you're going to address that? You're going to have only to have one theme for the article, because if you address too many, you will lose your readers. Just take one, either finance, either economics, either political. The only interesting thing is that when you think about geopolitics, it combines all three. So, and by the way, Thunderbolt, if I'll be happy to take a look at it if you want later on. And to connect with me, just go to LinkedIn. That's where you can connect with me. Uh, yeah. Oh, Amanda, here you are. It was Amanda that did that video, uh, that, that, uh, post on Twitter, uh, uh, saying that Canadians are oblivious, they need to watch, uh, geopolit— geopolitical trends. So thank you, Amanda. And please, you guys do the same if you could. Uh, I don't— I'm, I'm becoming, uh, sort of, uh, uh, it became clear to me now why YouTube is slowing down the number of subscribers on, on this channel here. Uh, you know, I wish they can be honest, straightforward about why that is. I have nothing against them, and I don't know why they holding grudge against this channel or suppressing this channel. So But when you guys have too many people join, uh, or subscribe, the algorithm can do nothing about it. So, so, so thank you, Amanda, appreciate it. Uh, uh, all right, Jesus Aguilar, good to see your question. How far will the Russian military support to help Iran or a military defensive treaty? No, not the defensive treaty one, but the help will be in form of providing certain advanced system, like for example radars. This is why I want you guys not to buy into what the mainstream media is saying about, oh, Israel destroyed the, the targets. No, it's hypes. It's not hypes, you know. And if Russia has to support, Iran is gonna support it, and it is already supporting it with key, uh, types of systems. That is going to be much more important. Now, will Russia go as far as providing nukes? I don't know about that. I don't think so. It won't go that far because Iran can do its own. So that's the way I see it, and that's what the support is going to consist of. Uh, uh, Maria, Uh, uh, yes, I read up about Sinwar, what took place, and, and to me, well, I wasn't surprised. It was just a matter of time. Actually, it was a surprise to the Israelis themselves because they weren't expecting— they didn't know. By the way, guys, if, if, if there are articles that said, oh, they had this intelligence, it's nonsense. It was coincidence that he was there. They didn't know. So, but at the same time, ain't gonna change anything. The trajectory is still going. So take the example of Hezbollah. Hezbollah is still going. So, uh, that's the way I see this moving forward. And there is the problem also of Canada and India for the, the, uh, the expulsion of the diplomats. And you all know this is tied to Khalid al-Stan, you know. And, and, and I was reading a little bit about the history It's very, very, very interesting to understand those dynamics when it comes down to the Punjab area and so forth. So, so I'm gonna do one for you as well. As a matter of fact, as I mentioned last time, someone reached out to me to invite the head of the Khalistan movement, so, and I might. All right guys, I'm gonna sign off here. I gotta go work on some other stuff for you, do some forwarding for the analysis that I'm going to be, uh, providing you soon. And I look forward to seeing you, uh, tomorrow. Uh, once again, thank you very much for your kind support. Please hit that like button and share this video with others and subscribe if you have not done so. I would greatly appreciate it. As always, remember, geopolitics impacts your daily life in more ways than one. Till next time, guys. Bye-bye.