What Will Trump Do Now that Iran Deployed its Advanced Ballistic Missile?

Hello everybody and welcome to Geopolitical Trends, where truth matters. Iran just unveiled a game-changing weapon, the Khorramshahr-4 ballistic missile. I have a picture for you here. Here it is. Yes, this is the new one, not the ones from, uh, the old version of it. This is the new Khorramshahr-4 missile, which is capable of hitting targets about 2,000 kilometers away with the pinpoint accuracy. That is the important factor here. So, and this one is now deployed at a new Revolutionary Guard, the IRGC base, as tensions with the US reached a critical point. So I wanted to do this update for you to keep you informed. As a matter of fact, I'm gonna keep an eye on this for the next few days. Given that, what's interesting about this, the announcement was done just few hours prior to the meeting between the US and Iran delegations in Moscow, Oman, that is. That's the interesting, and the, that's why it's so shocking to the US, surprising, but also the nature of this weapon. And once again, The— let me put the picture for you here. This is the Khorramshahr-4. It's a ballistic missile, uh, that was 2,000-kilometer range at a Mach— can go up to Mach 16 speed. Now, there are two versions of this. Some of them said this one is between 8 and 16. Others, uh, reports that I read suggest that this can go up to Mach 16 speed at pinpoint accuracy. The pinpoint accuracy, which another thing that drew my attention into this— why is this important? Why is this important, this particular word, pinpoint accuracy? When you read this, you're gonna automatically have to think of something that China produced, the Beidou system, the GPS system, the, uh, the navigation system that the Chinese use. Because remember The Iranians have dropped GPS back then and used the Chinese. To my knowledge, based on what I read about the Beidou, it is that accurate. Actually, as a matter of fact, one of the information that I had a chance to read described how close the accuracy. It can be off by 1 meter. 1 or 2 or 3, somewhere around that, which is nothing when you think about a large target. Like, even if it goes to up to 20 meters, still nothing in comparison to a big target. And that is, to me, the reason why when it says that this particular ballistic missile that Iran now revealed has some sort of a pinpoint accuracy— the question— not the question, but rather you think about this deployment which marks now a dramatic shift in Iran's military doctrine that goes now flipped from defense into offense. We're looking at a first-strike capability here. This is not a small matter because this is happening as the US is conducting some naval drills. And I'm gonna share a clip with you from a news outlet where a spokesperson for the Central Command was interviewed about this, and we're gonna do it in a second here. And as I said, this particular revelation about the Khorramshahr 4, this is the one. This is once again, just for the record, this is not from the old version that was done before the Khorramshahr 3 or 2, I believe, that was done a year ago. Almost. This is the new one. It's just been revealed recently, and this comes days before the critical negotiations, which is going to start tomorrow. As a matter of fact, right now is 12:30 here in Texas. It is about, I think it's 9, 11 hours ahead in, in the Middle East or West Asia, that is. So the first early hours, this is where the meeting is going to be taking place in Oman between Iran and the United States. And the move, in my opinion, as a geopolitical analyst and thinking in terms of what does it signal, what message Iran or Tehran is sending, and this given the proximity to the timing of the negotiations tells you one thing specifically, is that Iran is intended or intends like it's planning on conducting the negotiations on one hand, okay, but also conducting the negotiations at— and coming from a position of strength. This is where you have to put it in perspective. And once again, you think about the range of this missile. I keep going back to the missile because it's crucial.— and ballistic one. If you remember back then, and Iran, it's not surprised at this because Iran saw this before. Remember, I'm gonna take you back to the invasion of Iraq. What did we do? I take you back to 2011. What did we do? We moved the 3, 3 aircraft carriers near the Persian Gulf. 3. Iran weren't intimidated by this. But with the deployment of ballistic missiles, the dynamics change, uh, uh, somehow. So, so let's play a clip, and I'm going to do translation for you, but I'm only going to play a few minutes because it's, it's about 11 minutes. We're not going to spend the entire time on this, uh, but I want to just to share this with you here. Let me put it in the screen for you first. There we go. And let's, let's play it, and I'm going to translate for you. Joining us from Tampa in Florida, uh, which means the captain, Tim Hawkins. However, I just want to clarify this for you before we move forward here. It was a mistake, I think, from the anchor Because this individual is not a captain, is a colonel, full bird colonel, because I saw the insignia on him, so on the uniform. Just for the record, to make— maybe we all make mistakes here, so it's not a big deal. So all right, let's continue here. He is the spokesperson for the Central Command. Mr. Tim, and if you notice here, this is the 4-bird colonel rank, so that's why it drew my attention. Her question is, did you complete the sort of the deployment of your forces in the region? And it will be a pause here because of the transmission of the— Well, first of all, thank you so much for having me. First, let me thank you for inviting me here. I do not talk about the details of our forces except to mention that there were additional forces that have entered the region. And our focus is specifically on specific locations, determined and specifically determined locations. First of all, the priority is to protect our forces. This is at the top of our priorities. Second, we are doing— we are protecting American interests in the region. You have noticed that we've been doing this recently. For example, we conducted airstrikes against ISIS. Remember, now it's going to be this idea of ISIS. Because we wanted to prevent the return of ISIS. In Syria. And to add to this, we still have forces that they are working with our allies, and this to promote stability in the region. We just completed joint military drills with the Saudis, Saudi Arabia, Saudi in the Red Sea. That's where the drills were conducted. We're still working on this and focusing on this one here. Mr. Tim, what are your plans regarding Iran? I'm not going to speak to plans. I am not going to speak, or I'm not going to talk about the details of the plan. However, our forces are still in place to protect the American interests. And is still ready, ready for any mission that's been placed upon it. And these particular missions are routine. Recently we have released a clip on, on, on a video, that's showing the USS Abraham Lincoln that's conducting some maneuvers, especially with the fighter jets taking off. Those— some are thinking that this is like chaotic, but in reality this is well-organized procedure. And this is our focus. And this is because we want to be ready and just in case for whatever needs to be done. I'm going to stop it right here. It's because it's too long, because I need to get into the analysis part of this. To highlight to you. I just wanted to share that clip. First of all, one thing that drew my attention, and you know what it was? It was the fact that the Saudis are conducting joint drills with the Americans at this time. Makes you just wonder if the Saudis have a ball, they will say, you know what, we don't wanna escalate even things more than what they already are because the optics of it. What the heck is Saudis are doing naval drills with the Americans, given the tensions that's going on. And this is where you see wishy-washy of the Saudi. I'm not just the Saudi, I'm not picking up just on the Saudis here. Every other country will do it, but at least others didn't move forward with this. And remember last time when I did the video for you, I mentioned to you about the Saudis being approved for $9 billion worth of weapon sales. Including the THAAD, including the defense missile systems. And that shows you the hypocrisy that exists. Instead of taking a stand and say, you know what, this is the last thing we can do right now is to add fuel to the fire. Basically, that's what it is. But again, that's how it works in that part of the world. Once again, I find myself going back to this idea of the Khorramshahr-4, not the idea rather, But the missile, uh, because I, to me it's a game changer. It's a game changer because, uh, you think about, for example, when you look at, I don't have a map in front of me of the world here, and I'll highlight to you the distance, for example, for Diego Garcia, the base, which is within almost range, if I'm not mistaken. I don't know what Iran has as far as its type of missiles. So far, this Khorramshahr-4 is about 2,000 kilometers. You know, if I am not, if I am, if I'm not mistaken, the distance that will be from Iran into, what's the best, Diego Garcia, it's about 2,600, if I'm not mistaken. Don't quote me on this, please. If anybody knows in the chat box, please, in the community, just share if you know the range from Iran to Diego Garcia. Suffice it to say that the idea of having those types of missiles, especially the ballistic, uh, ballistic ones, will be within that range. And that is the importance of this to understand. So, and that's— it's a strategic, uh, implication to it because Tehran now, as I said, changing all its approach following what happened last year. Remember the 12-day war with Israel? You know, Iran now is changing everything upside down because their survival depends on it. That's why they moved their doctrine from defensive into offensive posture. And that's usually— which means what? First strike capability. This is how you're gonna have to think in terms of, of the, of, of, of this particular, uh, capability. Iran, of course— pardon me— Iran, of course, is stating that they don't want war. And there are those who are mistaken that by Iran accepting negotiations, thinking that it capitulated to the Americans. No, it did not. I'm here to tell you it did not. Iran's approach, in my opinion, is a part of de-escalation. Will make more sense. Let's just sit down with these Americans for the sake of de-escalating. It's not about fear. And I know some have been mentioning, oh, Iran capitulated, now they're negotiating. No, no, no, no, no, no. Because they are setting the avenue, they meaning Iran, setting the avenue for those negotiations. In other words, they are not going to be accepting whatever the Americans are saying. And if you're going to trust the American government, you are at your own peril, per se, because we go back and forth. You know, who's going to trust negotiating with the Americans as we speak? However, Iran made it clear that it's not seeking war, but at the same time is willing to respond decisively to any miscalculation. And this again, where this particular surprise comes in. That's what I want you to get. That's why I wanted to do the update for you, because you need to understand the development of this. I am seeing where things are going, and I am still unconvinced. Will Trump be stupid enough to attack Iran on the first day of Ramadan? That will be— that's, you know, usually— and I'm going to give you an example. In Afghanistan back in the day. Do you know that the Taliban will, will halt certain attacks on, on the Americans in certain holidays? This might shock you and surprise you. Yeah, and that is exactly where my big concern is. And this is why you seen on one hand Iran wanted to do it pragmatically, wanted to go with the negotiations Because it will enter these talks assuming with— it's not assuming. For on their part, they are now, by the time they showed that this Khorramshahr-4, the missile, they are entering into these negotiations from position of strength. So what do Americans have to offer? Yeah, there is something. Don't be surprised. The Americans might go ahead and cut a deal with Iran regarding oil.— just to see how they're gonna play it out. But Iran will have to stand firm regarding its red lines, and two of its red lines, one of them has to do with the regime and the second one has to do with the missile technology because its military capability. This Khorramshahr-4 disclosure or the revelation, it's a part of what mechanisms Iran has to defend itself. Because beside the negotiations, this deployment appears to be designed for deterrence. So you show strength ahead of an upcoming negotiations. That's a tactic. And again, you have to put it within a context because the moment Iran announced this, The US confirmed that Abraham Lincoln is currently conducting training missions. That's exactly what Captain— uh, I'm sorry, Colonel Hawkins was talking about in this interview that I shared with you earlier, and saying, well, this is just a normal training mission, which is true to a degree. When— if you happen to go on an aircraft carrier, you're gonna see once a while they do this routine because pilots have to fly, they have to train. That would be a normal part. But at the same time, the US is saying, no, no, no, no, it's because Iranian drones have approached the aircraft carrier. Well, if we are to think about, think of, think about it this way. You have an Hormuz 4, you have the Chinese spy ship that is following with where that aircraft carrier Okay, and you have the Iranian drones, whatever types of drones they are using. That gives you an idea. Because the whole, the whole idea of this is to push forward regarding this America, to push forward against this American military buildup because we still remember we just added more forces into that. And that's exactly what, what, uh, uh, the colonel or Captain Hawkins has argued in that clip that I shared with you regarding the encounters in the Arabian Sea between the US forces and the Iranian drones. There is a lot going on right now, so that's— of course, some of it does not get reported. This is why I came in and share these updates with you to keep you informed regarding what's going on. And what the US now is doing is wanted to shift the blame on the Iranians for a responsibility for escalation, for military escalation. This is why they are saying now, well, when you see those drones, the Iranians are being hostile. And unprofessional. That's what the Americans are saying. So, but at the same time, you have to think in terms of where the drones were exactly. You still have that 12 nautical miles from your borders, you know, in international waters. And this is why Because when you think about the location— I, sorry, sorry, I don't have the map. I didn't think of to put the map here. Let me see here quickly. Uh, you might not see it from here, but anyway, we can use this one here. Uh, if you think about where the aircraft carrier is, Abraham Lincoln, it is about 500 miles from the Iranian coast. That's what it is. Because to, to the Americans, this will be hostile, uh, act by the Iranians. No, not if they are operating within their sort of the parameters of the 12 nautical miles. So these frictions, of course the US is saying, no, the frictions— how do you think the Iranians are seeing it? So we tend, uh, to always not see the other side of the arguments from the other party. We always see it on our side, which doesn't make any sense, because if you do that, you will not end up with some cohesive strategy, or at least have a better understanding of the conditions if you want to de-escalate. And this is again where you have to understand where this is going. The pressure is going on because that's exactly what the US is doing. The, the, the buildup of this, uh, military, uh, troops, and of course the posturing of the force. And that's exactly where the US— that the US sort of military threat, because now we start to think in terms of what do we want. We didn't have any strategy, okay? And now the US start to think in terms— well, one of the things we start to think about, it has to do with the, uh, political leadership, political and military leadership in Iran that we want them removed. How are you going to do that? So that's why the US is using these tactics, these pressures, because this also, if you take step back This also could end up being nothing but a part of psyops. In psyops, you can have, as I said again, I am using history as my guide. I go back to 2000 after the invasion of Iraq and in 2011, when especially in 2011, when 3 aircraft carriers were near the Persian Gulf. This is why to the Iranians, so what? You know, bring it on, we will deal with it. And that's exactly what the purpose of this displacement on, uh, about the Khorramshahr for, uh, sort of the message it is sending. Of course, to Donald Trump, he is looking at it from, oh, I'm going to just put more pressure. Uh, at the same time, the diplomatic efforts are continuing. I don't know. It's because even the delegation that is now— is, is in Muscat, is going to talk with the Iranians— they have not received, to my knowledge, they have not received any guidance as to what the president wants to achieve. It's because The military action or the military option still on the table because here is one thing that I need you to understand also. There is one particular individual is going to be attending these talks. You know who that individual is? Is General Cooper. He's the head of the Central Command. You ask yourself, what is a general is doing in diplomatic negotiations? You know, you're always in a diplomatic setting. You don't have a military representation there. Those that are diplomatic channels makes you just wonder why a general will be among the delegation that is going to Mustaqh for the negotiations. Food for thought. You just think outside the, the box, that is. And this, in my opinion, leaves us with one other aspect, especially when you think about If there is any strategy that the US is using, because what Trump is doing now, he's trying to leave one door open. And you know what that door open towards? It is open towards regime change in Iran. That is exactly. And if you think how this is gonna happen or how it is being even considered is because the pressure from Israel behind the scenes. This is how the calculation is. However, Donald Trump, as of now, he hasn't decided on that. We've been in this road before so many years. They're not gonna regime change, ain't gonna happen. It's because Ali Khamenei already— that's why he said what he said last time. He's warning that if Iran is attacked, it's going to become a regional war. Sort of read between the lines here. And this is, again, you think, is there any roadmaps for all this? Is there any consensus within the Trump administration? No, there's not, because for us here in the US, it's chaotic, politically speaking. Congress and White House, and it's a mess anyway. It's not— doesn't come up to the surface for us to understand. So what are we left with is the idea of conflicts and wars. It's because there are some internal issues going on here, which, by the way, I am going to be doing some videos pertaining to those because of my American audience. I need for the American audience to be aware of what's going on internally. You know, for example, a recent legislation that passed in Congress a week ago, you know when it was done? It was done at 11 PM, 2300. Who's up at 2300? And that's where Congress is passing those legislation while everybody else is turned to Donald Trump's hyperbole about attacking Iran and so forth. And this is again where this problem is. So the relations between— when you think about it— between Tehran and Washington as they move forward, it's also— it's getting more strained. And of course, once that aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln made it to the vicinity, the area, of course it's going to attract more and more questions as to where this is going. Uh, will it succeed? Uh, not necessarily. And this leaves us with one aspect, and I'm going to close with this because I want to just to do an update for you. And this has to do with two countries, Russia and China. What are they going to do this time around? It's question that is worth asking. I'm not surprised, assuming that is confirmed, that the Chinese sent their spy ship that is now following, because the equipment in this ship is very, very, very advanced. I'm not even surprised that they will carry with them the advanced sonar systems that China developed, which can track every submarine, whatever it is. In addition to that, they do the global possession system. And this is why, in my opinion, once again, just to reiterate the importance of when they said about Khorramshahr 4 accuracy, near accuracy, it's because of this system. That's the point. And that's again where you have to put this in perspective. So what Iran and Russia is going to do, I don't know. I don't claim to know. It's because it's so complicated in this case. You know, there are even some have suggested, why doesn't both Russia and China provide some nuclear deterrence to Iran? No, it doesn't work that way. It won't work that way. First of all, if there is no treaty between the, the two countries Like what Saudi Arabia just did with Pakistan, he signed a treaty, a military pact that the Pakistanis will come to the defense of the Saudis, but the Saudis, are you going to trust them anyway? So in the case of China and Russia, it's more of a strategic calculation. China has already its own things to deal with. Russia already has its own things to deal with. In the case of Russia, there is one aspect that is very— could work to their benefits in supporting Iran. And this has to do with the nuclear talks with the Americans, between the Russians and the Americans. They are not upgrading— what do they call that? I draw a blank on the treaty, the Nuclear Arms Treaty. Between, uh, the US and, uh, Iran— I'm sorry, between the US and Russians, which has not been updated as of now. So I will be having next week a conversation with Larry Johnson about this particular topic. Food for thought is we don't know, we don't know what the Russians and the Chinese going to do. Are they going to be supporting Iran behind the scenes? Maybe, maybe not. Some have raised the same question regarding Venezuela. No, the case of Iran is completely different than the case of Venezuela, especially for the Chinese regarding oil. What China imports from Iran's oil, we're looking at a massive amount of oil that comes out of Iran. And where does it come from or through? You're talking about the Strait of Hormuz. And if that is shut down, which both the Iranians and the Ansarullah in Yemen can do that, they can shut it down. They can shut down the Red Sea as well. Where that's going to leave Chinese vis-à-vis oil import? Those are legitimate questions to ask. This is why The Chinese now are working on some, and I'm working on something for you regarding the Malacca Strait, and that pertains also to energy aspects of it. This is what I need you to understand. Please make sure to leave me a comment in the comment section. I would like always to read your feedback about how do you see these developments moving forward, you know, what does it mean to you, you know, how do you read it. Those are key questions that we ought to ask, and that's what prompts me to do an update for you. I probably will do another update for you tomorrow from a different angle altogether. If I see something worth your time, will be of value to you, I will be happy to do this one. So, uh, before I let you go, I want to take this opportunity to say thank you once again to those who have been supporting the channel, and, uh, that includes, uh, the likes of SC Lee, uh, and, uh, Phoenix Farida, Hang NG, American Citizen X, and Ramzi Abdurrahman, and others that have been— Ray is one of them, uh, a good dear friend of mine— that have been supporting, uh, my upcoming Asia trip, which, by the way, I did an update on that. Here is where we are right now. No, actually we moved into 16%. So, uh, thermometers— let me, let me update it here so you can see it with your own eyes. Right here, that's where we are at right now. So if you decide to support my upcoming trip to Asia, I will greatly appreciate it. Here is the link for you should you decide to do so. I will greatly appreciate it. Also, for those who wants to support the channel, here is the link for it. I will greatly appreciate it. And, uh, it's just part of your support is, is how this channel is operating here. So I want you to know I don't have any official sponsors per se. I will greatly appreciate it. As always, remember, geopolitics impacts your daily life in more ways than one. Till next time, bye-bye.