Why is the US Adamant about Having a War w/Venezuela? W/Fernando Munoz Bernal

Hello everybody and welcome to Geopolitical Trends, where truth matters. Excited to be with you. Hope you had a, a relaxing weekend and you are gearing up for the new week. So it's November already, the, the end of the year is coming here. I'm very excited because I have a dear friend of mine who's joining me, even though it's very, very late for him, but he was kind enough to allocate time for us here because He's someone that I will turn to, especially with this particular issue that is going on in Latin America. So let me bring in my dear friend here. Hi, Fernando. Hi, David.

Hi, everyone. Thank you for having me today. And yeah, today's a very special day to talk about what's taking place in Latin America, my country, Venezuela. So yeah.

Let's dive in. To those who do not know who Fernando is, let me just provide you a brief intro, and I put everything in the description so you guys go check it out. Fernando is an international news editor and content strategist with over 20 years of experience shaping the high-impact storytelling across Latin America, Australia, the US, and Asia. He's a bilingual, speaks fluently both languages, Spanish and English. In addition to this, he is also, uh, the YouTube influencer, and I'm gonna share the link with you of his channel. So make sure you guys— I'm gonna put it in the chat box for you all. Make sure to check it out. There's a lot, a lot of good stories out there. So, uh, in addition to this, uh, Fernando has been reporting from Colombia's conflict zones to leading digital newsrooms in China and the US. So you are in for a treat. Welcome, welcome once again. Welcome, Fernando. Excited to have you here. As I said, I have a surprise for you, pardon me, and I'm going to share it also with the community. It's in the form of a picture. Check this out. Yes. Yeah, that was when I met with both Fernando and Jerry. Great.

Wow.

In China. So they were gracious enough, they invited me for dinner, they took me off on a boat ride. I have to thank Fernando for that, and I have to thank Jerry also. And it was, it was, it was great time, Fernando. It's very truly untrade it. And I think I look forward to next time.

Whenever you come to China, you can count on it.

Thank you so much. So Well, let's get into our conversation. I'm sure, you know, I'd like to have your take into— first of all, let me start with this really sort of a hypothetical question, but it's a question that it matters. Why is the US adamant about having a war with Venezuela, in your opinion?

Well, I think the question— I will answer your question, but the question that we should be asking is why now? I think that these two questions are connected. The, the why has many answers. One could be resources, could be oil, could be getting rid of a leader that is disliked by many in exile, uh, disliked by many neighbors in Latin America, or it could be, and this is how I see it, an opportunity, because this is very opportunistic when you're asking why now, to start regaining influence in what the United States like to call its backyard. When Latin American countries are called America's backyard. Um, it, it takes away from our identity, from our sovereignty, from, from our, uh, status as, as nations. We don't want to be called backyards, but China has been making inroads into their cooperation, their investment, and their influence in Latin America, from Mexico all the way to Argentina. China knows how to deal with whoever is in charge, and this is something that is upsetting sometimes, um, the non-interference, these principles, these 5 pillars of peaceful coexistence that actually deliniate how they don't interfere, and they decide until whoever is leading a country, that's who they will deal with. And this is, is creating a situation for the United States that demands that they rein in these countries that they have controlled for decades and decades and decades. Um, the way that this has been done is not dissimilar from the way that is done in the United States. When you have a population that is divided, when you have a population that is attacking the opposition, when you have this division of opinions and ideology, then it's very easy to manipulate, and it's very easy to create troubles, to create changes, the changes that will benefit the United States. So why they want to do it is not a simple answer, is not, um, one topic. Is resources, is oil, is influence in the region. Just go, yeah. This Colombia, this Brazil, um, and you see this wave of leftist governments that for the last decade or so starting to pop up around Latin America. And now they are trying to, okay, let's switch back to more, um, far-right or more right-leaning governments. You see that taking place in Bolivia already. And this is why, in my opinion, the US is not bluffing, to answer the title to your question. They see this as an opportunity to get rid of Maduro, who I'm not going to be judging just yet. I'm just giving you a plain answer. But who is the leader of a country? And they just would like to have somebody who is not adversarial to them. Um, the domino effect that this could have is what concerns me as a Colombian citizen, as a Colombian national, because As we mentioned in our preparation, Gustavo Petro, our president, has actually pledged that he would support Maduro if there is a war, if there is an invasion, if there is kinetic war taking place. He has pledged to support Maduro. It's all, it's all rhetoric for the time being, but I do think it's, it's very difficult to backtrack from everything that has been said and done. I want to address further on the extrajudicial killings of Venezuelan nationals, of Trinidadian of Colombian nationals in international waters, um, under the suspicion of being drug dealers, drug dealers or drug traffickers. Now, I, I have to be cautious because as a Colombian, I know that these boats are carrying drugs. It's, it's, it's the history of the region. It's the decades of this business going on in countries like Venezuela, in countries like Colombia, Peru, Ecuador, Mexico. So we do know that this is taking place. However, um, what needs to be called out, and circles back a little bit to Why now? Is that these executions go against international law. You apprehend the individuals, you take them to court, and you put them in prison. To do otherwise is to become executioners. And what really bothers a lot of people in Latin America is how gleeful they are, how proud they are of what they're doing, posting these extrajudicial executions, because there's no other way to describe them, on X and saying, oh, at the orders of the president, we have bombed this speedboat. That speedboat. I think it's up to several dozens of people that have already been killed in these bombings. My take is this is not about drugs. If this were about drugs, at any point, mm-hmm, they would have done this a long time ago. We've experienced 5 decades of a war on drugs. What have we got to show? What's, what's different from the '80s other than the routes and the, the players? Pablo Escobar died in the '90s, but then it shifted to other countries and other routes and other ways. But what has changed? Nothing. The problem hasn't been solved. My position has always been Like any business, this is about supply and demand. Colombia, Venezuela, Peru, Ecuador, Mexico, they are supplying a demand that is nonstop for the last 5 decades. Nobody has ever considered the possibility of a war on addiction. And better yet, a war on the conditions that create an addiction. The poverty, the, the loss of path in life, that dream that was sold to those generations of going to university, and being able to buy a home and being able to fulfill the American dream. When that doesn't take place, when that doesn't happen, when you see people fast-tracking to riches in moral or immoral ways, that generates all the mental conditions and all the societal conditions for addictions. But this is not addressed in the United States. So to make it short, this is absolutely not about drugs. If it were, it would have been done a long time ago, and it would have been done in other ways. And I'll touch on that a little bit later because that's a little bit heavy. This is about resources, and this is about power and influence and trying to topple, to start a domino effect in some of these left-leaning countries, namely Venezuela and Colombia, because Colombia has this umbilical cord with Venezuela in, in this illegal businesses and, and what we call the rabo de paja in Spanish, which is the tail made of hay. If a spark falls into Venezuela, then it's just go straight into Colombia. So that's, that's what makes it appealing, probably, to topple, um, Maduro, because Colombia will follow.

Well, you're absolutely correct, Fernando. I mean, the idea, as far as the, where the drug issues— I've been aware of since the '80s when Ronald Reagan was in charge and all the war on drugs and whatever, and never amount to anything because it was always a demand here in the United States, you know. I used to go to certain parts in New York and LA and sort of you see in certain parts of, okay, why the government, what the government is allowing that. So here is where I see the issue with this. The issue is that first of all, what the US is doing, and you are absolutely correct, it's a violation of international law, is extrajudicial killings per se, because in my opinion, Drugs is a law enforcement matter. You know, the US shouldn't be behaving in this manner. You're right, they need to arrest, you arrest, but you can't just arrest people willy-nilly because that ain't right. And that leads us back to your beginning statements regarding this is more about than just about drugs, and you are absolutely correct. Just for the viewers, for my community to know, Venezuela sits on massive oil reserves that really go beyond even what Saudi Arabia has, just to let you know. Second thing, Venezuela's natural resources are massive, in addition to its stock of gold, which by the way, half of it is stolen and it's in England. They need to return it. So, so becomes the question for us Really, what is this all of a sudden this starting? And is this has to do with what you mentioned earlier about China expanding its investments in Latin America, making Latin America economically viable? And it seems we don't like that outcome.

Well, the history and the truth of black markets in Latin America existed, particularly in Venezuela. When America, the United States, wants to give our countries trouble, they find ways. They find ways to give us trouble. And then these black markets happen, from black market for US dollars to black markets for goods and produce, black markets for drugs, alcohol, weapons. So this is part of our history now, dealing with these underground channels to trade and to, um, help each other when America decides to tighten its grip on, on trade and market. So for example, One of the issues that a lot of Latin American countries have with Venezuela is that the borders are quite lax. So when people, the elites of Venezuela, um, were against Hugo Chávez, the exodus to Colombia was enormous. There were millions of people who crossed the borders into Colombia seeking refugee status and just piling to our problems with informal economy and unemployment. So these changes in, in, in leadership in Venezuela have created a lot of issues for neighboring countries. These Venezuelans go all the way to Ecuador and Peru, going away from what they saw as a government that they did not accept, or that they would protest, or that they would, um, be prosecuted against. So that's basically what took place, an exodus of people. These people, of course, have grudges, and they have created groups and associations outside of Venezuela that are constantly attacking and constantly calling for a regime change. Is Maduro a perfect leader for Venezuela? I'm not going to tell Venezuelans who their leader should be. All we know is that he is the leader now, and he's what— he's the person that the countries have to deal with. America does comical things like electing this Juan Guaidó. Juan Guaidó was recognized by the United States government, even Marco Rubio, as the president, the Venezuelan president in exile. An absolute clown. But when they needed oil, you saw John Kerry go and meet with Maduro and say, hey, 'Can we get some oil?' So, um, they— the double standard in the way that they treat the leader of Venezuela is— it needs to be called out. They, they recognize Maduro when they need him, but they don't recognize him when, uh, they want to, to topple him. Um, The question has to be if Maduro is a bad leader. Some of the things that happen with the oil production, because as you said, he's one of the largest, I think he's the largest reserve of oil in the world.

That's correct.

But when these refineries were expropriated, basically they sent home all all these foreign refineries. They simply did not have in Venezuela the engineers, the, the human resource, or the, the logistics themselves to continue to extract, to continue to produce and process oil and sell to foreign markets. So that was an immediate collapse of that huge source of income for Venezuela. Oil created an elite in Venezuela that rivaled only probably the one from drug cartels. People would make money out of nothing. When this industry went down, of course, that created a lot of problems for regular people. Again, we can sit here and discuss if Maduro and Chavez were good leaders. They have their defenders, they have their detractors. I sit on the detractor side. Why? Because I have lived in China long enough to understand that this is not about communism or socialism. Yeah, communism and socialism are tools are our principles and guidelines, but you have the craftsmen behind those ideologies. So when you hear people blaming communism or blaming socialism, I said, like, why, why doesn't this happen in a place like China? Is because, well, the rulers are not the same. The issue with Venezuela today is there's tons of corruption, there's tons of, um, ill-gotten gains that have been extracted from the country. There's just proof and evidence of this taking place in Venezuela. You lose your ability to rally those who matter. If the United States decides to set foot in Venezuela, you don't really have loyalties in the military. You have people who are protecting their own interests because they're used to getting their bread buttered. Is very similar in Colombia. And perhaps we talk about Colombia a little bit later, again with this drug wars. Colombia doesn't want the drug wars to end because the aid that we receive ends up in the pockets of the military and contractors, etc., etc. So yeah, they don't want the war on drugs to end in Colombia. So this is the, the picture with Venezuela. Venezuela would probably try to react, would probably try to defend itself, but unless it becomes a Vietnam-style of war, Vietnam-style of defense, guerrillas, or just— which is something that Maduro has been doing, he has been arming the population and calling for defense of, of the sovereignty and their nation. And now, uh, yep, that's exactly what they have. These are people with minimal training and now are going to be cannon fodder, basically, if the United States ever sets foot in Venezuela. And that will extend across the border into Colombia. For sure. That's my main concern. So I think that the question for international relations experts is how to do, how to deal with a leader that is not performing the duties of a leader, of a president in the sense of putting this country in the best situation possible given the resources. Because Venezuela is rich, but the Venezuelan people are poor. Some Venezuelan people are poor. There's also elites that obviously have their bread and butter and benefit and give certain service to, um, the regime. So you, you You need to start considering what to do in this case, because America going in and, and flipping tables is not going to make things better. It's not going to make things better. There has to be a solution. And I think that this is why Qatar has come to the table trying to mediate and find a way out for Maduro because he doesn't want to die. He doesn't want to lose his fortune, but he's, he's thinking, okay, really, we don't stand a chance against the United States. Nobody's going to come to our defense. Again, going back to what I was saying about China, China will do all the business they can and want with Venezuela the same way that they do with the Ukraine, with Russia, to do business with whoever, with Israel. They'll keep on doing business with whoever wants to do business with them. But China will not send troops. China will not get involved in a war the way that it hasn't gotten involved in, um, Israel and Palestine, the same way that it hasn't gotten involved in, in Russia and Ukraine directly. There is a rumor in media circles that there are— and this is a rumor, there's 100% important to say this to your audience— that there are, uh, Russian troops and armament in Venezuela ready to help Maduro. Um, again, it's, it's turning Venezuela a little bit like, uh, Cuba during the Missile Crisis. Is defending whatever allies the left-leaning countries have or the communists have. So there is rumors that there are troops, um, ready to spring into action if the United States decides to attack. And going back to the question of bluffing, do you I don't think this is a bluff. Um, we've talked, uh, among our groups of experts about whether America is pivoting away from China, whether America is, is, is not going to, uh, pursue conflict with China, and whether they are now focusing somewhere else. There's a great chance that that's what they want to do. They want a conflict in Latin America that they can benefit enormously from, uh, not only weapons and, and, uh, and, uh, more conflict, but toppling governments. That is going to open the doors. Then you mentioned that, uh, during the preparation, talking about Machado. And I have to say this just as a Colombian, because this is something that has been said a lot in Colombian circles. We have elections in Colombia in 2026. Pedro is left-leaning, and he has received all the backlash as you can imagine. And now just like Machado. Yeah, all these presidential candidates, candidates from the right, are pleading with the United States to remove Petro, to invade us. That's what Machado has been doing. And this is where, where I have to stand and say, like, this is not the way. This is not the way. Um, this is— I like to think of Hong Kong and its National Security Law. If you are going to, to surrender your sovereignty and demand or request that we are invaded, Venezuela or Colombia, that's treason. Define it any other way. So that's, that's what people are thinking about, my child, on how it's become a bit of a hot potato. Because she has been supported by the United States. She has been supported by Trump. She has been supported by Rubio. Like, they even went ahead and gave her the Nobel Peace Prize when she's going now on radio, on social media, saying she wants to remove Maduro by force. She wants the United States to remove Maduro by force. So she's calling for a war having just received a Nobel Peace Prize. Well, that's not out of standard if you consider Obama got it as well and he was bombing left and right. So it's, it is going to take place, David, and, and our viewers. I think America will make a move. Um, how Maduro is going to move away is, is what's left to be decided. Is it going to be peaceful? Is it going to be negotiated with Qatar? Is it going to be, yeah, treated, uh, in a court of justice for his links to drug rings, etc., etc.? That's yet to be seen. We don't know exactly which, which way water will actually find its, its path to the sea, but there is an inevitability to this.

Just for the community, uh, regarding, uh, uh, Maria Corina Machado, she is an opposition figure. She's been financed and supported by the CIA. It's not a secret. Now here is what you guys need to know. There's something that, uh, I was talking to someone in the know regarding this. Uh, there is one statement she announced is that If Venezuela is freed from Maduro, you know what the first act she's gonna do?

If—

which means she's assuming that she will become the president. The first act she will do is to remove the Venezuelan embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, which that in itself, guys, just that statement in itself should give you an idea about where the real power is and who is in charge. It's not the United States, Israel. So this is what you need to know. Just, uh, I'm glad you brought this up, uh, Fernando, just to put this in perspective. So there's a lot behind the scenes. To go back to your point regarding which, uh, that's one, one of the key questions I wanted the community to hear from you is the idea of this, the US is gearing up for war. On the other hand, we see what the United States said about, for example, Yemen. Remember, a year and a half ago or so, we're gonna bomb the hell out of the Yemenis, we're gonna turn it into— where is all that? We couldn't even fight the Houthis. What makes us think we're gonna fight the Venezuelans given that Maduro, Maduro now is arming the population. Okay, you have the population here, you have the militias here, okay, and you have the military. So, and what makes it even more interesting is that neighboring country Colombia stated that they will come to the support of Venezuela. So the way I see it, and I respect your opinion, Fernando, on this And I see your point in that the US is going to go in, but if it is, it's going to go in under special ops. That's the only way it's going to do it. So there is one piece of information I am trying to confirm. I can't state it now because I don't have confirmation yet, and I'm going to share it with the community at some point once I confirm that. And this pertains to Maduro himself as to what the US is planning on doing. So So the war is inevitable. Will it be fair to say, Fernando?

In my view, and with the information that I have, when— with the movements that I've seen, like from September, for example, this base is being cleaned up and updated in Puerto Rico. Um, they're getting ready, and now they're flying by along the coast, they're bombing these boats, these speedboats. Yeah, they're— they're— Latin America is not China. Latin America is not North Korea. Latin America is not a country that has a way of defending itself in a way that would match the United States. We can put up a fight, guerrilla fight, and the bloodshed would be incredible. Again, that's why I likened it to a situation like Vietnam, perhaps. But we can be touched. We can be bothered. We can be pushed in ways that other countries are not. Other countries have protection, have, um, strong allies that will come to their aid. Who's gonna come help Colombia if, if this takes place? If we get involved in this war, in this potential war, who's going to come and help us? So this is why mentioning this Russian troops in Venezuela adds— again, as I said when I mentioned that, that's a rumor— adds a different tint to what is taking place, um, because they do have nuclear weapons and they do have, um, much more experience. And although they are obviously a bit, uh, stretched with this, um, attrition war that's taking place in, in Ukraine. But their presence, their involvement would make things a lot more difficult. Um, and then it becomes a, a coin toss, David, for Maduro. If you, if you think about it from Maduro's perspective is, am I going to win this? 'Can I win this? Are these allies and troops and support from Colombia, allegedly from Russia, would they buy me a win?' That's, that's what Maduro has to be thinking. So for him, probably a negotiated exit is better. The thing is, how will America, the United States, paint a negotiated exit? How will they turn it into a win, which is what the US always does? Oh, this was a win. If, if he gets away with everything that they have accused him of, then what did you really win as the US, right? So those, those are so many different elements that are coming at play. If Maduro is removed, either with a special operations, um, or setting foot and starting a kinetic war in, in Venezuela, it's, it's going to, is going to really change the dynamics of entire Latin America with Brazil to the south, Colombia right next to them, Guyana, the Caribbean. Everybody is vulnerable now. Everybody can be— and this is the, the crazy thing because if the excuse that America is using is drugs And I have to draw you back to the history of Colombia. We have a far-right political circle that is completely tainted by drug dealers. Álvaro Uribe Vélez, our former president, is running again for the Senate, and his candidates and his party they all have scandals with drug dealing. We don't need to go too far. Álvaro Uribe Vélez's father was a drug dealer, a drug trafficker, and he was caught back in the '80s. And at the behest of, at the request of influential political people in that department called Antioquia, he was freed. But cousins, nephews, uh, even he himself, Álvaro Uribe Vélez, was in the list from DEA in 1982, uh, in the 1980s, as one of the, um, key drug traffickers in Colombia. At a very young age, he became the director of Aerocivil, which is like the organization or the entity that controls airplanes and airports, the airspace of Colombia. That was at the peak of airplanes flying cocaine from Colombia to the United States. That's what he oversaw, giving licenses to planes, licensing airstrips and airports. It ended up being that his family helicopter was used by Pablo Escobar and was found in Pablo Escobar's ranch in the middle of Colombia. So the ties and the connections to drugs and the drug business in the far right, as well as in the left. Because what are we remembering these days in Colombia? Sorry that we are moving away a little bit from Venezuela, but just to give you, yeah, context, the, um, Revolutionary Army of Colombia, M-19, they went into our Supreme Court, Palacio de Justicia, in early November, uh, 20-something, 30 years ago, and they started assassinating magistrates and judges and Supreme Court justices and destroying evidence that would make it possible for drug dealers to be extradited to the United States. Who paid for that? Pablo Escobar. And that political revolutionary army, that revolutionary army became a political force, and that was Gustavo Petro's political, um, revolutionary army. He was a member of M19. So everybody, as I've said in, in many posts on X, everybody's tainted Nobody's clean. Absolutely nobody's clean.

Yeah.

So the same is similar, the same is happening in Venezuela. Nobody's clean. Everybody works for a cut. Everybody works for whatever they can get out of these government entities or dark deals. It's very difficult to buy loyalty that way. This is why I think that the response from Venezuela, I'm not so sure that it will be united against this fight. And it will make Maduro really consider this, uh, coin toss. Am I gonna win this or not? That's, that's, that's the thing. America has The United States has every— everything that they can gain out of this is great. For Maduro, yeah, he needs to, he needs to be smart and find a way out. Um, does that mean justice? No, I don't think we're talking about justice here, not when you're blowing up speedboats, uh, in the Caribbean.

Well, personally, I don't see— personally, and that's my opinion— I don't see Maduro leaving power. First of all, they're gonna be a struggle assuming this moves forward, because Maduro already sent two letters, to my knowledge, one to Putin and one to President Xi Jinping. Both of them, he sent letters to each one separately requesting weapons and military equipment to sort of strengthen Venezuela's defenses. That gives me an idea that the fight, hypothetically, should the US move in with ground troops, which I don't foresee, he wants to be prepared for this. So what Maduro requested from the Russians is separate from what he requested from the Chinese. From the Chinese, from the Russians, he requested the upgrading of the Sukhoi, uh, 20MK2, which is an older version of them. But they had a lot of the Russian fighter jets over there in Venezuela. So, uh, how quickly the Russians will do this, I do not know. But at this point, there has been some transport of some types of ammo that went into Venezuela. There is also, based on this source, that The documents also requested the repair of 8 engines and 5 radars that will be repaired in Russia, so then sent to Venezuela. The one key aspect, it has to do with the 14 missiles that the Venezuelans requested. This is on part of the Russians. On part of the Chinese, Maduro sent a letter to, once again, to the, according to the source, sent a letter to President Xi Jinping and requesting specifically the military expansion cooperation. Now, there's this specifics to this?

No.

Apparently, uh, the Venezuelans, to my knowledge here, requested two specific things. One of them has to do with the radar systems to accelerate this, and the other one has to do with some types of missiles. Now there's even a third element to all this, and the third element has to do with Iran. So once again, I was informed that Iran is also was part of this outreach that Venezuela did. So Venezuela reached out to Russia, China, and Iran because the Venezuelan transport minister who recently coordinated some sort of shipments of military equipment from Iran that includes the drones. If you only know, the Iranians been providing the Russians with the drones. So in my opinion, and again, I'm just looking from outside in, what the Venezuelans wants to do, they wants to prepare everything in place because they know the US is not going to come with ground troops. What's going to be the special ops, which usually we've been having a history in Latin America of conducting the special ops. And I see the same scenario almost what happened with the Ansarullah or Houthis in Red Sea. I see almost the same scenario because the rest of the world knows that the United States can't fight anymore. We all know this.

What happens, David, when Maduro is taken out? Let's say there's a special operation and he's taken out. What happens to all these militants, to all this armed population? Do they accept a puppet? No, they won't.

They won't. And this is where there would be conflict on the streets. Well, for sure. But this is where the idea of the three countries, Iran, Russia, and China, What are they going to do? Because you can't just say, I'm going to send you missiles and that's it. You deal with it. That doesn't work that way because we saw the same scenario with Iran when the US and Israel attacked Iran. Everybody, I was one of those thinking, okay, I won't be surprised that the Russians will send in whatever they need to send in. The Chinese might send in whatever they want to send in. And I was under the impression that especially with the Russians, because I was aware of the coordination that took place between the Ministry of Defense in Russia and their counterpart in Iran that they will send in some sort of advanced systems to defend Iran. It didn't happen.

This relies mostly on intelligence and people on the ground knowing exactly what Maduro is thinking and hoping for. Um, there's been several attempts at eliminating Maduro, uh, in the past of the last few years, and they've been able to intercept them. Um, they had this play when they caught like some special ops, uh, at sea. Um, so they seem to have help to figure out, um, what America's next move is in terms of special ops. Um, but you don't know when those things are bought or stop working or they get it wrong, and then they are successful in removing him, um, one way or another. Um, that's— if, if it's— I don't think America can back down. We're probably disagreeing on how they will do it, but I do not see them backing down from this. It is too important. Um, we've seen what they've done, um, in other areas like, uh, Nord Stream 2. That was an act of terrorism. Now imagine getting rid of other infrastructure in Latin America further down the road. Going into Peru and doing something to Shanghai Port, for example. This, this fight for influence and control of Latin America against the Chinese is getting real, is getting hot, is getting— it's here and now. And we see that. I was talking to, to contact. We, we're in a group together. He's a Colombian, and he was telling me that the BRI, the Belt and Road Initiative, is pending by a thread in many countries. Because if Colombia were to go, you can forget about the BRI, which we joined earlier this year, and, and then everything is game. Everything becomes game because again, as I was saying, this, this ease of this repetition of the MO— uh, this, uh, party, um, they're dealing drugs, they're traffickers, they are this, they're that, now we're gonna move in there— it can be replicated so easily if it works in Venezuela. It can easily be replicated in other countries, at least an attempt, at least, uh, something that is going to make cooperation and an expansion of cooperation with China harder and more difficult. Um, you, you, you can see the things that political candidates, presidential candidates, are saying in Colombia about cooperation with China. They, they don't want it. They want to get back to sucking the, the titty of America. When America said like, we're not going to give you any more help, uh, for your war against drugs, those people were like, oh my God, what are we going to do? We're, we're going to put tariffs on your products. Oh my God, what are we going to do? Like, there is a dependency to the United States from a lot of Latin American countries that China hasn't yet replaced. If we lose some of these things, yeah, the country will suffer, population will suffer, people will suffer, because We're not there yet with China. China cannot just swoop in and say like, hey, yeah, America is not selling you weapons, we got weapons. I'm talking about Colombia, which is something that happened a few weeks ago. We're not there yet. We're not there yet. Colombia started doing deals with Sweden to buy new helicopters and and jets because America is not sending us anymore. So China is, is in a way losing as well. If this takes place, China will lose, and China will have to reconfigure and, and reset and, and see how they can continue expanding and with this dream that they have of integrating Latin America to their supply chains and then expanding their markets. The amount of work that has been done is incredible. I was talking to, again, this expert, this person who works in diplomacy in Colombia. You and I, we know him, he's in the same group. And you were saying, if this takes place, all the work that they have done in building all these diplomatic exchanges— this goes to education, this goes to infrastructure, this goes to, um, environmental care— that's just done, that's gone, because then comes in somewhere from the right who doesn't want anything to do with China and goes and follows the United States blindly, as they've been doing for so long. That's, that's what keeps me awake at night. The fact that if something is to take place in Venezuela, a country that I have nothing to do with, there's repercussions. There's, there's going to be a domino effect. And in a sense, is one of the criticisms that a lot of people have, even people who support President Petro have criticized him for blindly supporting Maduro. He said, "If we get that tail whip, this could ruin us." Even though Petro has done a good job in creating better economic figures. We have the lowest unemployment, uh, in a long time, the highest foreign investment in a long time. So he's working. Obviously media is not going to tell us this, but he's doing things that are positive. But all that could be— go to waste if we decide to bet on a horse that doesn't have his best chances of winning. Yeah, that is this whole geopolitical situation in Latin America. Everybody is— because if he goes, if Maduro goes, yeah, everything changes.

But, but that one, that one, Fernando, that's a big if. That's a big if because We've tried on certain— as a matter of fact, I am waiting on a confirmation on one specific aspect of this that usually could pave the way to what you're saying. However, I just personally— and again, we might disagree on this, you and I— I just, I don't see Maduro leaving anytime soon. So it's going to be the reason Pedro Costa, in Colombia stated that they'll stand with Venezuela because he understands that if Maduro goes down, that Petro is next.

Yeah, exactly. Yeah.

The US ain't going to be thinking nicely about Colombia, especially now with his stance regarding the support for the Palestinians. Petro Gustavo is the only one from Latin America that is shouting, on top of his lungs as far as the right for the Palestinian people. So you can just see. So the US will have to calculate the risks of turning a country upside down, especially Venezuela, given its position vis-à-vis the oil, because it's going to interrupt the global supply. That's for sure. Rest assured on this. So second thing, do we have the stamina, if I may use the term, to really go into another conflict. I know this one has been pushed by Marco Rubio, given his vendetta against Maduro and some Latin American countries. You know, it's no secret. You know, when I was in Washington, DC, I was aware of the statements coming out of the Foreign Relations Committee, which Marco Rubio used to chair at the time. So all of them were aiming at, you know, removing those who disagreed with Washington. So the big question for us, Fernando, is the idea of what we're gonna be seeing the other key players, the likes of Russia, the likes of China, and I might even add Iran, and I might even add North Korea to this mix. Because this is, again, we are in a different phase when it comes down to global geopolitics that will force us now to think about The world is not unipolar anymore. No more. The US doesn't have the global hegemon as it used to be. And that's going to force us to think outside the box whether is the US just bluffing or really they can go in just because they have an aircraft carrier and they want— the Russians went ahead and sent some stuff too, which, by the way, I did confirm it. Those are Russian missiles. That have already been delivered to Venezuela.

Because if we're talking about Russian planes and Russian armament, somebody's got to teach them how to use them. I mean, those planes don't fly themselves, so there's training that needs to take place. This rumor that the troops are in Venezuela, it's, it's loud, it's loud. And, and with this confirmation of these, um, equipment having been received. Yeah, there's little doubt that there is.

Yeah, well, it's gonna, it's gonna remain to be seen. I just don't see the US, I just don't see the US just going in because we, we do, we do this a lot. We say this, we flex our muscles and we end up not doing it. And I'll share something with you, I'll share with you and the community. It was one time, it was a It was an op that I was part of, and to the last minute, you know, we get the call, stand down. That's it. And I was like, what happened? We were in no position to ask questions, but all of a sudden, stand down. So I see the same scenario going on right now in Venezuela because the US will have to think, you know, Trump wants to score political victory at any cost, but that is reckless for him to be going this route.

He's got a much bigger issue with drug cartels in Venezuela, sorry, in Mexico, for example, and that's right next to him. So my question, and perhaps people in the chat could venture their answer, is this excessive noise, This excessive aggression, these successive attacks on Venezuela are, shall we say, unprecedented. It is unprecedented. The amount of armament that is on the Caribbean, it is unprecedented.

No, no, I push back. I push back, Fernando. Fernando, you're my friend, but I will push back against this. It's because we've seen the same with Philippines. Remember when the tensions between Philippines and China started? What we were saying, oh, just go fight the Chinese, we will support you. And when the Chinese reacted, we back down.

Oh, we're happy with the G2. And then, yeah, we were talking to— we were talking to, to a friend. Yeah.

You're right.

Sure. I mean, I understand what you're saying. But as you are yourself pointing out, he wants political wins. Trump wants political wins. Trump wants to achieve something. Maybe just eliminating, like they did in Palestine, like they did in Iran, just eliminate individuals and create the chaos, the conditions that are going to bring turmoil to the country, and then it becomes easier to manipulate. Those precision executions, they could be replicated. They could be, I mean, or at least attempted. I think that the level of noise creates that expectation. At least in my mind. Not that I want it, not that I hope for it, but yeah, it does seem like something plausible. Um, lawfulness out the window. They don't care. It's never been an issue, and what we're seeing these days around the world, it doesn't seem to care. Yeah. So when I say Maduro goes, I'm not saying he steps down. It could be goes with his feet in front of the door. Yeah, it could be eliminated, who knows. But it's just too much noise. I don't know what, what does our audience think?

Yeah, what do you guys think? If you can put in some comments on this in the chat box. But again, Fernando, I am using history as my guide, and I look at for the same arguments that was made during the Bay of Pigs, or prior to the operation. You know, it was same noise, uh, it was in Washington at that time, and the agency was getting, you know, trying to push against what Kennedy at that time wanted. And they went ahead with the same thing, and we all know what the outcome was. The Bay of Pigs was a disaster. Could be this another disaster in Venezuela in the making? Because remember, we tried that, and I'm gonna share something that is not classified, but, you know, again, based on my conversations with— we've tried two attempts. There is a third one now that I'm, I'm waiting on confirmation. We tried two, two attempts. We couldn't to take him out. So there is a third one. And I'm waiting for a confirmation to see, you know, once again, I tend to use history in this kind of settings because it gives me an idea of— last time I had a James Bradley here at the, on the channel, and somebody who wrote about Vietnam, and he was right. The idea that it was a lie that was sold to the Americans that We defeated Vietnam. No, we never defeated Vietnam. As a matter of fact, Vietnam end up defeating the Americans. So to me, what makes us think in the idea that just because we're gonna flex our military muscles by sending an aircraft carrier and all this, that the Venezuelans is gonna cave in. I just don't see that because there is no mood around the world for the US anymore. Because, okay, we kind of— that, that's just the way I see it. I mean, again, you and I, we might disagree, but that's the, the beauty of a good conversation, and, and we're friends.

I think they tried 2 times.

Yes.

I mean, we have no guarantee that this 3rd time will fail. You know what I mean? What if it doesn't? What if it doesn't? What if it doesn't fail? And he's taken out. Yeah, he was unraveled, and, and it opens the door for a possible troops on the ground situation. Um, that's not the starter. I don't think that that's the starter. I mean, as you said, in the Philippines, they don't put troops on the ground, but they create the situation that would allow them to perhaps moving and put troops on the ground. Yeah, God forbid. We're here talking about the death of a— yeah, leader. Uh, if it does happen, just, just, we need to look for, for cohesiveness and, and unity in Latin America because Colombia's next. Colombia's next. And that, that MO can be replicated, as I said before, very easily. There's talks of Petro being a drug dealer already in, in, in the Senate and from, from the West Wing. He's been accused already of being a drug dealer. Trump himself said it. Yeah, like, uh, without any evidence. And that's the issue. I'm not saying that he's not corrupt. In fact, I know for a fact he is corrupt. Um, my nephew is, um, going to school with his daughter, and I know of these kind of abuses that Petro, um, is used to now. Being in presidency. So that wouldn't surprise me that he is, but the problem is you gotta have evidence to, to what you're saying. Um, and again, the why now and the why not the others, because we do have evidence that, um, Álvaro Uribe Vélez and so many others on the right are connected to the being in prison for drug dealing. And the final point, a few days ago, I made a poll on X. Perhaps I share it with your audience. It's a little bit difficult, and I was very surprised by the results. And perhaps that's more what I want to address. Because the premise is a bit ridiculous and inhumane. But the question was, if you are okay with the immoral decision of eliminating drug traffickers and speedboats in the Caribbean, yeah, because you want to end the war on drugs, where do you stand on extrajudicial executions of addicts and drug dealers and baggies and, and people turning tricks, or those laundering the dollars in Wall Street? Do you agree with that? The results were unbelievable. It was 60% would agree with it and 30% said no, they wouldn't go for it. That's such a moral dilemma that, that it was very difficult for me to, to— I wanted to make a video about that particular poll. People are okay, okay with extrajudicial executions. Um, that to me was extremely surprising.

Um, I don't know, with no evidence. You know, we can't just send a missile and blow up the boat with no evidence. That's just not right. So as a matter of fact, speaking of survey, I did a survey for my community regarding this particular aspect as whether the US and Venezuela are on the brink of war. 68% said yes, 20% said no, and 11% said don't know. And that was about almost 2,000 votes on it. So yeah, it gives you an idea where things are headed. But are we like full-fledged war that the US is going to embark on given where our economy is? I don't see that happening because again, I am using history as my guide. The same argument I make for this, I made it regarding the Houthis and Ansarullah. When Donald Trump said, and I'm paraphrasing here, we're going to blow them up and return them to the Stone Age, whatever. We end up having to move an aircraft carrier north of the Red Sea because we were concerned that it might be hit. Yeah, because like I always said, Fernando, in international relations, context matters. The fact yet you are sharing a picture of a US aircraft carrier being hit by a missile from the Houthis, it's enough. This is again what I see, the same scenario here. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, but that's how I see it. I'm going to give you a last word, my friend, before I let you go. How do you see things moving?

I qualify Maduro as a very bad leader. I don't think that eliminating him is the solution. I don't think that this is a failure of socialism or communism, it's a failure of a certain leader. Is a failure of, um, no plan, no strategy to bring a country out of the situation that they're in. Um, but eliminating Maduro, um, one way or another, is going to be catastrophic for the countries that matter to me— China and Colombia. China because this is where I live, Colombia because it's my country. So I just keep my fingers crossed and hope that things can be done in a peaceful way. But I like your, the people who replied in your poll, they kind of like agree with me. Something's going to happen. Something's going to happen. I mean, you're right. Yeah, America has done several times, has tried, um, in different places around the world, but this is the way I see it, more like low-hanging fruit. Such a divided country, such an isolated country historically at the hands of the United States. I don't know. Um, I don't, I don't have the connections that you have.

Wow, we shall see, we shall see. Uh, first of all, I want to say thank you to Noel. Uh, thank you so much for your super sticker. Truly, truly appreciate you.

Same. He went to Xinjiang with me the first time in 2021.

Wow, Noel, thank you so much. Noel is an avid supporter of the channel, so, and so many others. It's right here. So I have a wonderful community that I really, really so, so happy to be part of because I'm just part of a community. So we're very, very great. Well, my friend, I can't thank you enough for really carving out time for us here, and I look forward to having a conversation with you. Sure.

It's a very convoluted history, very convoluted region, and, uh, we could be here hours talking about what has led us to we are today. Thank you so much. And thank you to the people who have watched this video.

My pleasure, friend. And by the way, where can my people find you?

You can find me these days at Media Without Means. Media Without Means is my website, www.mediawithoutmeans.org. And it's also a YouTube channel, Media Without Means, here on YouTube. My personal channel has been killed by YouTube, so I'm sidestepping media without means.

Okay, and I put the link for you guys in the chat box, so you make sure to check out Fernando's YouTube, uh, or whatever he has down there. You check it out. Yes, he is, uh, somebody's asking. Yes, he is on Twitter. I'm gonna put the link for you in the chat box so, so you guys can have it there. And follow him on that. And also on LinkedIn, he is also on LinkedIn under Fernando Munoz. So I'll put it for you in the chat box and you guys make sure to follow him there and read up the stuff he puts in. So once again, thank you very much, Fernando. Appreciate you. And please don't— I'm gonna remove you from— but don't leave, wait for me. I'll talk to you privately. Hi guys, I hope you all enjoyed listening to Fernando. I know this is the beauty of a conversation. We might disagree, but that's to me what civil conversation is all about. This is, this is to me what exchanging ideas is all about. We don't have to all agree on everything. You have to disagree, but again, we exchange ideas, and that's to me, that's the beauty of it. So I hope you enjoyed it, and I look forward to seeing you next time. As always, remember, geopolitics impacts your daily life in more ways than one. Till next time, bye-bye.