Will ASEAN Cave in and Give Up its Neutrality?

And welcome to Geopolitical Trends. So excited to be with you on this Saturday, August the 12th. I can't believe it's halfway August, almost summer is over. So anyway, so excited to be with you here. Uh, today's topic is going to be about Think of it this way, as a brief analysis about the whole Southeast Asia. We're talking about all ASEAN countries, but I will specifically focus on some specific countries. So I will tell you the detail as we get involved into the conversation. So, uh, first of all, if this is your first time here, please just make sure to subscribe to this channel. I will greatly appreciate your support. And to all of you, I say thank you for, uh, uh, being here first of all, and thank you for your continued support. Just one announcement quickly here is I recorded the first video for the health channel. Yeah, believe it or not. So I'm going to be releasing it in about 2 days. My editor is going through it right now. And by the way, to those who might not, uh, be aware that I launched a health channel. And here is the link that I am going to share with you should you be interested in that. So I will be talking about health issues that, uh, it was a funny comment by one of you guys. I said, well, Dr. O, where do you find energy for all this? Well, it's a combination, and this is what I'm going to be addressing in the health channel. So I'm not going to talk about all that stuff here So anyway, let's get on into our topic because there's a lot to cover. So, so, uh, uh, uh, and I'm gonna share a picture with you here first. So to put this in perspective for you, of course we're gonna be talking about ASEAN in general term, but there's more into it. So it just— I want you keep in mind that, that idea. So, so for this one here, we're gonna be focusing on on ASEAN, but specifically country. But there are key questions like I always ask, and the question we need to ask, given the, the changes on the global landscape, mainly with the rising tensions between the United States and China— yes, there are rising tensions, it's behind the scenes. This is why in geopolitical jargon we call that now, is it a Cold War II? Cold War I was with the Soviet Union, or against Soviet Union. Now is a Cold War II with China. So, so the question we need to ask for that is, can ASEAN countries, which is the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, maintain its neutrality? So far, many saying, oh, they are staying neutral. I'll have to challenge that assertion. Not all of them, of course. There are specific key countries, and we're gonna get into that as we move, move forward. So the second question that comes is, if ASEAN is able to sustain its neutrality, how, how would he intend to do that? Because that's the key, key question to, to address this one. But before we delve deeper into the key countries that I'm going to be focusing on And there are two I'm going to be focusing on. Indonesia, because this is a follow-up to my, uh, video about Indonesia. And second one will be Malaysia, given what's going on in Malaysia right now. Of course, we can't ignore Philippines, and I'll tell you why as we move forward. But first, let's— at least for those who might not be aware of what is ASEAN— so what is ASEAN basically? Well, ASEAN is the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, which is aimed at maintaining basically a good relationship with both the US and China. This is where one of the keys— and it, it's very, very interesting how it all started to begin with. Well, ASEAN is an international organization Okay, that has about, uh, 10 members. Uh, you're looking at, uh, Brunei, Cambodia, uh, sort of, uh, let me start first, let me start first with when it started to begin with. So the association is here because I did the research and I digged into the archives and I found one image that you might be very interested in ASEAN. And here's the image here. It's very interesting. I'm gonna leave it on a screen for a while here. So, so the, uh, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations was established. That picture was in 1967 because ASEAN itself was established on August 8th, 1967, in Bangkok, Thailand, with the signing of ASEAN declarations called Bangkok Declaration. And by the way, at that time it was by the founding fathers of ASEAN, in other words, the founding members, which include Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. Okay, then later on Brunei Darussalam joined ASEAN on January 1984. It was followed by Vietnam on, uh, July 1995, followed by Laos and Myanmar on July '97, 1997, and Cambodia on April 1999, making up what is today known as the 10 members of ASEAN. That is very, very interesting and important to know that historical background of it. Because without a historical understanding, or at least the context, uh, this way we, we will understand the dynamics as to why ASEAN is reacting or behaving the way it does today, or why some other countries inside ASEAN— and I will detail on that. The other aspect we need to ask is, what is the economy of ASEAN? Because it's worth mentioning, it's no small matter. This is what, uh, not been reported aggressively in the West for some reason, because the economy of ASEAN is, is major. So the ASEAN region as combined, when you take all the 10 countries and you take their, uh, you calculate their GDP, the gross domestic product, it is between $2.6 to $2.8 trillion. This is according to the recent stats that I just looked at this morning to confirm it. So, so $2.6 to $2.8 trillion. Lelong, it's a home to over 622 million people. So in other words, it's a big market. So it is the 7th largest economy in the world and the 3rd fastest growing major Indo-Pacific economy the past decade, after of course China. There are some research have been put India, uh, I, I'll let you guys decide whether India should be categorized or be put in this category or not. So, uh, what this stats mentioned, uh, that this, uh, uh, ASEAN is considered the third, uh, after China and India. But again, it, it could make sense if we are looking at that part of the world. So, so the ASEAN economy, uh, or economic community seeks also to reduce and remove trade barriers to facilitate the free movements of goods, services, capitals, and skilled labor within itself. So, so this is what's important about it. So back at least to the stats that I looked at, and I like to always go back a decade before Uh, between 2007 and 2014, ASEAN trade increased— guess what, guys— by almost a trillion dollars. That's major. That is major. So the ASEAN, or the ASEAN Development Bank, ADB, predicted that the outcome— here's the keyword to this— the outcome of Southeast Asian economy will equate to almost— that's the analysis they conducted first in 2022— to 5.5%. And later on, they had to revise this assessment and dropped it to 4.7%, which, you know, I commend them for this, taking step not to hype the numbers. This is why IMF does sometimes hyping the numbers, like one argument I remember or analysis rather IMF did suggesting that the Chinese economy was sinking. Well, it turns out not to be true because the economy of China at that time rose by about 4.1%, and I did speak on it, uh, it's on a record there. So, so this is what, uh, the ADB, the, uh, the, the Asian Development Bank did. It kind of reassessed its analysis from 2022 to 2023 by lowering it from 5.5% in 2022 to 4.7, uh, in, uh, 2023. So, and the whole reason for that, why they did that, is because it's a global demand for goods has weakened slightly. We all know the inflation in certain countries, including for us here in the US. So The other aspect, uh, we need to understand is the importance of ASEAN, you know. And this is when you think about ASEAN, you think about the region's countries. This is going to lead me to one key question that I am going to ask you now, and I would like for you, if you could please put the answer on the chat box, because the answer is going to vary here depending on your political views, depending on your How do you see ASEAN moving forward politically and economically? So the question is, hypothetically, and we'll just think outside the box. Let's say if we are, we in general term, press ASEAN countries to say, okay, you're going to have to decide which side you're going to go to, or which side you're going to side with, the United States or China. Because that's what we're talking about in the case of the conflict. Which country, in your opinion, do you believe will side with China? And which country, in your opinion, do you believe will side with the United States? I have my answer to that, but I want to hear it from you first. So if you would be kind and just type in that on the chat box, I'm not gonna, uh, give you my answer yet because it takes a while for the answers to show up here. Then we'll compare and enter into the conversation, because that's the whole idea of this live stream. So, oh, someone from Brunei, good to have you here. Wazim Anarkiri, good to have you. So, so, but for now, I'm gonna focus my conversation on none other than Indonesia, because as I said earlier, I'm following up on the, uh, on the, uh, video that I did for you as far as Indonesia. And we'll get back to that question, just remind me in case I forget, guys. So Indonesia, why Indonesia is very important to understand? What again is the role it plays? Is geography, which we're gonna start with, and I'm gonna share this picture with you guys for Indonesia's map that covers the horizon. And I'm going to leave this on for a while because there's a lot of moving parts that we need to, uh, understand as I talk about them, as you see them on the map. So geographically, Indonesia sandwiched between the South China Sea, as you notice there, and Australia, okay? And this is where the importance of Indonesia comes in. You think about it in terms of, uh, uh, the— by the way, its name is the Republic of Indonesia, which is, by the way, encompasses the largest, uh, uh, uh, the world largest, uh, longest rather, I'm sorry, archipelago, you know, from the tiny islands of Sabang in the northwest part, okay, to Papua, which is formerly known as Arian Jaya, or West Aryan. That was as known in certain old maps. You still see the name over there. I think they have changed recently. And this one in the east. So you have over 17,000 islands stretched, uh, over some 3,400 miles long, the equator. A very, very interesting geography. So the total land mass area covers about 736,000 square miles. And of course, Indonesia, anytime, at least as an outsider since I was a kid, I've always heard about Java. Yeah, those are the main, uh, sort of, uh, islands in Indonesia. And this, by the way, in terms of population, so, and importance So you have Java, you have Sumatra, of course you have Bali, which is— a lot of Western tourists go to Bali. You have Kalimantan, known as also Borneo. Then you have something else called— not something, but another island called Sulawesi, known as Celebes. Then you have Papua, and you have Maluku. So, so the landscape, basically the geographical landscape for Indonesia is highly varied. With— you have mountains on one hand, with mountain peaks basically, and of course you have volcanoes also. And some, some of those are rising as far as the, the stats that I looked at was about 15,000 feet. That's quite a, quite a high. One thing that I found very interesting about the archipelago, so, and I'm going to share it with you. So the archipelago of about 17,508 islands, some 6,000 of which are inhabited by Indonesia in the world, because Indonesia is the world largest country comprised slowly of islands. That is why those islands are very important. And of course, as I said, straddled equator, it is a strategic location, stride or long major sea lanes from Indian Ocean to Pacific Ocean. So this is why I had to mention last time the understanding of why geography plays a role into all this. So, and just to highlight to you some other important factors, or facts rather, beside what I shared with you in the video, uh, already, uh, you have the idea of the Natuna Islands. So Natuna Islands, basically in the southern edge of South China Sea, and this was based on some archival or archival, uh, documents released in the United States. Uh, that's how we were working with Indonesia's military at some, at some point. We still do to a degree, but now things have changed because the rivalry between China and the United States is intensifying. So the question becomes, is what will happen? This is why I asked earlier Which countries do you believe will go one side or the other? And I'm going to take a look, see, uh, some of your answers there, because it's very, very important to understand this point before, uh, we move forward. Let me get off this, uh, screen here and get off to the point where I'll check on your answers there. So, oh, let me remove this one here, guys, so we can see There we go. All right, let me see what the— I— what, what your, your answers are. So there are govern— there, there are certain countries, uh, uh, that they're gonna say, well, we're gonna have to side with the, the Americans. Others saying no, no, no, no, we're gonna have to side with the Chinese because our economy. So you— so it's kind of, uh, this is why I asked the question, you know. Robert, oh, guess what guys, I forget to plug in the computer, so pardon me. All right, let's plug in the computer here, otherwise I will lose All of you. Here we go. All right, back to it. So you're absolutely correct, uh, uh, Muhammad, you mentioned Philippines and Singapore. Interesting about Singapore. Robert, you saying Philippines is the weak link? I, I can see your argument there. So, so here is my answer, because I told you I would share with you. So, and this is based on my own analysis, by the way. So you think about it in terms of if ASEAN is pressed, you'll be looking at Cambodia, you'll be looking at Myanmar, you'll be looking at Laos, definitely will be supporting China economically and ideologically. Then you look at two other countries. You look at Malaysia and Singapore and Indonesia will be siding with the Chinese from an economic perspective, okay? Then you have the Philippines and Thailand Singapore to agree. Indonesia, Vietnam, and Brunei, some sort of will be in terms of, okay, if they are having some, uh, uh, uh, uh, lack of understanding regarding the water rights, because that's what the— our arguments in the South China Sea. So you can see, and I see two main countries, and mainly one is the Philippines. The Philippines will definitely go with the United States. This is where I see it going. So Singapore is going to be playing it safe. So, but for Indonesia itself, it is critical maritime hub. Indonesia has to weigh the options, okay? Because like I said in my video earlier, it's connecting major shipping lanes here between Europe, Asia, and Australia. And to China, those waterways are critical to sustaining its economic development. Otherwise, it will be a problem. And this is what gives Indonesia significant geopolitical importance and makes it sort of a focal point for regional and global interests. Well, here is the thing that I want you to get, guys, is that we in the United States made arrangements with Papua New Guinea militarily. What was the aim of it? The aim of it was targeting Indonesia. Why is that? It's because the economy of Indonesia is doing better than that of Australia. So Australia is looking at Indonesia as a threat, economically speaking. Why? Because Indonesia's trade with China are better than Australia's trade with China. Well, we all know what happened with Australia, and you remember what Robbie Barwick said when I had him here, so So this is one of the key I need you to understand where it makes the, the, the, uh, the, the case very sensitive, if I may use the term, in the case of Indonesia is that being part of ASEAN. So what you can get out of the herd by going your way, it's like what's going on right now with India in BRICS. India is going on its own trajectory, so it becomes problematic. So, so, and if I am to think in, in, in those terms, then I am going to have to compare just theoretically BRICS and ASEAN. If you have a weak link inside BRICS, get rid of it or replace it. Will be the same arguments in ASEAN. You got a weak link there in Philippines. And here is why that is important to understand. It's because in the case of Philippines, you have this major, uh, Subic. This is where the US military bases, or naval bases, that is in the— it's called the Subic, I believe, Subic Bay. That is where the main, uh, so, so to me, Philippines, uh, and I was putting question mark after 3 months when Marcos Jr. became the president of Philippines, thinking, well, this guy might do better. So, but I left the door open just in case. It's because I suspected that— because I heard his speeches and all that, and I get the, the feel that He's too weak politically. I have nothing against Marcos Jr., of course. You guys know all this. I have nothing against— I have nothing against anybody, any leader in the world. But I will not refrain from— if it needs to be addressed directly and criticized, then I will do so, justifiably, of course. You can't just be pointing fingers and talking negatively without, sort of being objective. That's my point in all this. So after listening to his speeches, it became clear to me this guy, Marcos Jr., President Marcos Bonbon, uh, he's not gonna stand up to the pressure from the United States. He's too weak for that. The likes of the Prime Minister of Australia, Albo, the likes of the, uh, Prime Minister Dictator Trudeau, the likes of the weak Chancellor of Germany Olaf Scholz, of course the, the, the, the, uh, the incompetent Prime Minister of England Sunak. You guys got the idea. Or for that matter, even the weak, uh, Prime Minister of India Modi, because now I am convinced for using the term weak. He's a weak leader. So speaking of India, by the way, before I forget, we have, uh, some sort of, uh a parade in Washington, DC about, uh, I, I even find it here somewhere. I, I did the— I don't know where I put the, the link to it, but it was, it was a parade in, in, in Washington, DC of the minorities and so forth, by which we are inviting Hindus into taking a parade into that. And there are some serious concerns inside, inside the United States as to what are Hindus doing. Uh, yeah, it's, it's, uh, let me share the screen with you guys so you see it with your own eyes. Uh, all right, let me share this. And by the way, since I read Arabic language, so I'm able to, uh, sort of translate to this stuff here. So Middle Eastern Eye: Why are human rights advocates concerned about Hindu organizations participating in the US? This is in White House. And they are taking part of that. So, so it's very, very, very concerned. So that's my point in all this. So, so you call when a leader is weak, you call him weak, simple as that. And this is where I get convinced about, uh, uh, Marcos Jr. being weak. So this leads me to be convinced now that Philippines will be the— is the weak link inside ASEAN. The next question becomes Should ASEAN remove Philippines? Philippines is a founding, uh, member, remember. I don't know, I, I, I can't decide for them. They have to decide themselves. So, but it's just to highlight to you where things are headed, and this is why Indonesia plays a major role into all this. So, because like I said earlier, the, the rivalry between US and China is intensifying. Flying, and it's only gonna get worse. Yeah, is the truth, is the reality. It's because we are unable to compete, so we're gonna have to find means by which to slow down, or we can create issues in the whole Southeast Asia to sort of attract— we already seen what's going on, for example, in Pakistan. So This is where, uh, I ask the question as an analyst is whether Indonesia's neutrality will be sufficient. And again, I use history as my guide. As I mentioned to you in, uh, in the video, guys, you use the term, uh, I give you the example of Belgium and I give you the example of Cambodia. Yeah, those two, it's, it's a logical argument. So And here is what I found very challenging, given that I read an analysis by someone who just got his PhD from a university in Australia, and makes me wonder. So I know how to read between the lines when it comes down to research, you know, I did one myself, so I understand the process, how it works. So, so the argument this individual made, and I'm going to share with you the name later, is that Indonesia's defense officials privately acknowledged Indonesia's strategic challenges. They expressed concerns that Indonesia could be drawn into a military conflict between the two, uh, rivals, China and the United States. I found it very interesting that This individual's advocating for how China's military— he's using the term military expansion or installations in the South China Sea— are strategic threat to Indonesia security. You all see where this is headed, right? And why it was worded that way, because if you want To dominate, you know, you divide. If you divide the members of ASEAN, make them contradict each other, make them go at each other, the saying goes, divide and conquer. That's why I took an interest in this analysis of these individuals who put it this way, because he forgot to argue another point, which I will talk about it some them. So the way it was put is that the idea of the Indonesia security, uh, sort of, is, is of paramount, which I see there's much bigger problem than just that. So what of course we know, any military conflict between US and China is going to involve everybody in the region. First of all, the military is not going to happen at least not now, not in the near future. And second, it will be a major, major strategic mistakes for us to even get involved. Remember, the Pentagon few years ago ran a scenario of 18 scenarios, 18 scenarios, what will be the outcome if we engage China militarily. We lost 17 out of those 18 scenarios, it was only one scenario by which we won the, the, the conflict. And logistically, it doesn't make any sense. We will be at a disadvantage moving all our assets to the area. Yes, we have bases there and so forth, but it won't be enough. And second, China has enough medium and long range to hit those targets from its territory. So this is why a country like Philippines will become a target. A country like Australia will become a target. A country like Japan will become a target. South Korea will become a target. And this is why I said earlier, when you think about ASEAN as a whole, you have to think in terms of which is the weak link that could really, really drop, or, or, or let's say, not be able to stand on its feet as far as the neutrality. This is how I see it, you know. Mind you that in the whole region— let, let me put the map here for you guys to, to see— the maritime lanes for economic purposes, it will be disrupted beyond, beyond belief, which means not just China's going to suffer from that. All parties involved will be— will suffer from that. And even those who are not involved, that's just how a war is. It's not a pretty thing. So, so, and this is why I find it very interesting to understand, uh, uh, why this individual who put this analysis, by the way, from Australia— his name is Abdul Rahman Yakub. Who's recently just graduated. He got his PhD at the National Security College, NSC, at the Australian National University. Now, if you know anything about Australian National University, some of its papers is sort of, uh, the white paper, as we call them in the academia, you know, there's been funnel or funded by some private entities, think tanks, And I'll let you read between the lines into all this. So now I have two things to share with you from two of our viewers in this community pertaining to this topic. Of course, one of them is Jamiko— I'm sorry, I couldn't pronounce the last name— Tanowi Judo. He wrote, and I quote, not only the issue of Natuna— this one pertains to The, uh, the islands of Natuna, by the way, and I do have an image for you guys to see. Yeah, this is like the Natuna area. So this individual wrote, uh, the, the, uh, the subscriber rather wrote that, uh, the issue of Natuna, uh, Indonesia has a history of, uh, border disputes with Malaysia. So back in 2002 Indonesia lost two islands, Sepadan and Ligitan, in northeastern Borneo. Borneo. The result of the decision of the International Court of Justice stated that the two islands belongs to Malaysia. And in June 2023, the two countries resolved— this is what the media is now reporting— resolved the, the border disputes in the Celebes Sea, which is the other islands, and the Malacca Straits over 18— after 18 years of negotiations. We don't hear that in the Westerns. So there is another one that is very crucial, and this comment was by Peter Lim. This is why I say, guys, make sure you read this comment posted by, uh, other, uh, subscribers, you know, or viewers. That is very, very interesting. That's why I read them. Because I learned from them. He said, you're right, China has said openly that the Natuna Islands belonged to Indonesia. That's why the initial 11-dash line, uh, when those islands were returned to Taiwan by the US after World War II, is now the 9-dash lines. Very interesting. So if you are to look at the map where the 11- used to be and where the 9- is. So thank you guys for sharing this, very informative. Now this leads me to turn, uh, uh, to, okay, where Malaysia fits into all this. It's very, very important, uh, question to ask. Why? It's because of what's taking place in Indonesia. Let me share with you first about what Anwar Ibrahim said. He's the PM. Here's his image right here, guys. What Anwar Ibrahim said. So, so the Malaysian PM confirms neutrality in South China Sea crisis. Well, wait a minute, are you speaking for yourself As far as Malaysia, or are you speaking of the entire bloc? Because to me, as an analyst, as an outsider looking in, I don't see that the all 10 members are so neutral, so to speak. What about Philippines? So, because that is a concern, and that will be the first, uh, question I will ask, you know Uh, speaking of Malaysia, by the way, uh, what's going on right now as we speak today, uh, believe it or not, there is, uh, and I'm gonna share screen with you, you guys can see, uh, there, there's some sort of elections going on, okay? And you need to at least be aware of, of it. I'm going to share it with you. I read this in in foreign languages. Uh, uh, no, no, no, that's not the one. Close this one. All right, let me remove this and let me share the screen with you. Screen. Uh, here we go. All right, what's going on in this? Malaysia chooses about 6 councils in referendum on support— get this— on support for Anwar Ibrahim. It's going on as we speak, and I'm going to send you guys or share with you the link so you can read it later on, uh, if you choose to do so. And by the way, uh, as I said, you can, you can translate the— copy the hyperlink here and I'll share it with you because there are some serious question about Indonesia that I need— or Malaysia rather— that I need to share with you. You need to be aware of. So, all right, so the Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, so what he's saying basically is that his country stands neutral the escalating conflict in the South China Sea between the United States and China. So he didn't say the entire bloc, he said his country. And there is a reason for that, because you have to understand the history of, uh, Malaysia when it comes down to its ties with the Central Intelligence Agency. And I'm gonna get into that soon. So So he's arguing that Kuala Lumpur will maintain its strong relations with each other, which means what? With each other between Malaysia and China, between Malaysia and the US. Of course, for Malaysia, with China is more economic than anything else. And you remember, any prosperity of a country laid on what? What is the foundation is laid on? On a militarization? No, on economics. So Malaysia is thinking in those terms, you know. Of course, there have been those tensions over the water per se between some countries there, but they can be resolved, like what we saw between Indonesia and Malaysia. They resolved it, even though it took longer. It can be resolved. So And by the way, uh, uh, this statement was during when he was addressing, uh, the, uh, conference, international conference. And guess who organized the conference? The Institute for Strategic and International Studies in Kuala Lumpur. Well, I'm very familiar with that institute. It's in Washington, DC, is a think tank for the US government, the back door. And usually that's how think tanks tend to have an influence in foreign governments. We can steer them as far as their policies. So, so this is why Ibrahim, uh, Prime Minister Ibrahim Anwar Ibrahim offered basically ASEAN mediation. But how can you offer ASEAN mediations when you know Philippines will not play ball with that because Philippines has a different calculations altogether. So you're gonna have to think in those terms of how it works. Uh, uh, so when he said that, well, ASEAN is going to offer mediation to the conflict through peaceful and constructive settlements, ah, I have my doubts. I have my doubts on that. So because remember, he is concerned is more so about not only defending the sovereignty of Malaysia but also ensuring no interference or disruption to the flow of energy and goods and so forth. Because remember, that part of the world— let me put the map again— that part of the world, it's a major water hub, waterways for the transfer of goods and energy and so forth. All countries involved, not just China. So that is why he's saying what he's saying. So because that economic zone is very, very including— very, very important. And also it goes back to, I think, uh, if I recall, 1990 or 1992. I recall some UN conventions regarding the law of the sea. That, that's what I recall back then. So now there are other important factors that you need to understand, and this one has to do with the role of Malaysia when it comes down to its link to the, the, the CIA. Yeah, it's very, very interesting because you need to understand that part. And we're not talking about Anwar Ibrahim himself, because if you look at the previous PM, Abdul Razak, and the corruption he was involved, but also you need to understand the ties he had with the Central Intelligence Agency back then. So the Malaysian president warned that what he called illegal activities and the militarization of maritime area— I put this in quote— could undermine the security and stability in Southeast Asia. So of course, as you know, the certain analysis that's been put out by certain think tanks, uh, sort of focuses mainly on the escalation in the South China Sea. And all this has to do with the— based on that analysis that they, they, uh, sort of published, it has to do with the Chinese Coast Guard Uh, because it brought up the issue of the tensions with Philippines regarding the disputed area. This is why Philippines is playing both sides. It won't stand. It's no different than what India is doing, playing both sides. This kind of approach— I don't know who's advising them, the head of the governments— this kind of approach doesn't work long term. It might serve your short-term interest but it won't serve your long-term objectives geopolitically speaking. So, and of course we have to highlight today, whomever announced this analysis, the incidents after the Philippines accused the Chinese Coast Guards of intercepting a Philippines military supply boat and targeting it with water cannon. Yeah. Interesting how the, the, uh, the, uh, the inflate where, yes, it might be tensions there, but it can be resolved locally. You don't need to have a foreign entity gets involved and resolve the issue for you. You know, that, that's to me, I see it, uh, where the problem. And this is why I read very carefully these white paper or analysis when it comes out, because one of them says And I quote here, China claims almost full sovereignty over the sea, a trade corridor for trillions of dollars worth of goods a year, aimed at rival claims from Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam. End of quote. So this is why you really have to read very carefully, and you have to understand why the wording It is the way it is. So, and this is why I don't understand why Marcos Jr. made the trip few months ago to China prior to meeting with the US Secretary of Defense and sign the agreement to extend 4 more bases to the US on Philippine soil. So playing both sides. So this is how I see, uh, uh, so what I found also interesting, it has to do with the trip by, uh, I think it was, uh, uh, Anwar Ibrahim made to Philippines, or vice versa. I don't recall that one exactly, but, uh, uh, I have a link here for you. Let me, let me open it. And I'll share it with you. I'll share the link with you. Uh, Anwar Ibrahim, President welcomes Malaysian. So it was the Malaysian Prime Minister visited Philippines. Now let me share the link with you guys, and I will share the— let me share the screen with you, and I'll share the link with you. You guys can read it later on to see, because you have to understand this dynamic. It's very, very important. Yeah, it takes a while for it to show up here. So there we go. So, so the idea that, uh, the idea that, uh, uh, uh, the Marcos, uh, Jr. and Ibrahim, uh, Anwar Ibrahim, rather, they had to discuss this aspect, uh, of, uh, security. I found it very, very interesting. Why? Because both countries, Malaysia and Tai— and, uh, Philippines, wants to boost defense and security ties. Okay, if I am to ask, and again, you just ask yourself the simple question: if Manila invited Malaysia, under whose authority Who convinced Manila to invite Malaysia? So, so you guys can read between the lines. Now, one thing I need to share with you is the, uh, especially with, with Malaysia, because that's why I said I'm gonna provide the brief analysis about Southeast Asia as a whole but focuses on key countries. One of them is Malaysia here, because you have to think about the Uh, if I may use the term, the dangerous liaison, uh, AMNO leaders. And if you know anything about AMNO leaders in Malaysia, if you happen to be Malaysian, you know what I'm referring to. Because AMNO leaders' secret tango dance with the CIA, it goes way back. This is not new. And by the way, the, the, uh, the AMNO is a founding and the principal dominant member of the Barisan National Coalition, which, taken along with its predecessor Alliance, had been the main governing party of Malaysia from independence of Malay in 1957 until the defeat— its defeat in 2018 general elections. That's what I found very, very interesting. And yes, I do have a link for you for their links with the Central Intelligence Agency. I am going to share it with you and let you guys reach your own conclusions. And by the way, this is why it takes me guys time to do the research and devote time to this, because this means a lot to me. So I'm not talking on the top of my head here, and to do this it requires research, it requires time. So, and I am sure you guys appreciate it, and thank you all for your continued support. So, so this is what's interesting to understand the dynamics of what's going on inside uh, ASEAN as a whole. Of course, I didn't cover, for example, Brunei. I didn't cover Singapore. Singapore is an interesting dynamics, and I am keeping my eyes open on that to see, uh, really, so far they are remaining— Singapore, that is— remaining on a straight line, not here, not there. But for how long? And of course, I question whether it's going to be a domino effect if Philippines goes the other direction, which most likely it will, because Philippines, to me— and again, I could be wrong, and it's my opinion, I bear the responsibility for my statements— Philippines is so weak, the leadership that is, it's so weak. So if Philippines goes the other direction, doesn't mean that the rest of the ASEAN countries will do. That's why I put on the, on the thumbnail, will it stay neutral? Could it stay neutral? So that's the way, that's the way I see it. So it's very, very interesting. And when you look at the whole region, because the whole Southeast Asia, and, and now, now I'm looking at what's taking place in, in Pakistan It's chaotic, but chaotic because of a reason, chaotic because the chaos was introduced into Pakistan. You know, we have something to do with it. I don't shy away from saying it. It's because Pakistan also, the civilian government doesn't run the country, it's the military, the ISI. You know, the military has always controlled the direction and the key decisions inside the country. The civilian government has no say. So that's why the military establishment was given the order by its masters to sort of, uh, let me see, some announcements came up here. Uh, who knows, maybe the government is listening to us here. Got the order and said, hey, you need to remove Imran Khan and put whatever convictions put him in jail and so forth. So, and you all know why, right? Do you know why Imran Khan is in jail, right? Can anybody tell me why? Can you please type it on the chat room— on the chat box, rather? I'd be, I'd be curious to know if, uh, what you think, what on it. Yeah, it's not even covered much here. Nobody talks about it here in the West. So, all right, let me see. Why, why do you think Imran Khan is in jail or be in jail? Uh, to prevent him from being elected, that's one. But, but the reason why There is another reason. There is another reason. Yes, you're right, the Americans pressured the Pakistani military because that's the one that controls, uh, deal with Russia, uh, to a degree, Muhammad, because Pakistan remained neutral as far as not condemning the Russians. But there is another reason for that, and I'm looking for keywords specific if you guys Uh, he was against the, the US. Yes, he was. But what, what for? Why? I'm just trying to challenge you here, guys. You know, he did not support Russia. That is correct, he did not. You know, and, uh, there is another, you know, I'm gonna just share it with you guys. It's the idea of when the US requested the establishment of a drone base on the Pakistani soil on the border of Afghanistan. Imran Khan, who was prime minister at the time, said, no, I, I don't want any drone bases on US soil, on Pakistani soil. And that's what led to his downfall. We start— they start— the government there started to create, uh, uh, uh, sort of, uh, uh, cases of corruptions and stuff. We all know Majority since the— even I go before, uh, Benazir Bhutto, even before her, you know, you're looking at about 8 prime ministers went to jail, most of them for corruption and so forth. In his case, it was that the idea he turned down the US drone base, and we kind of didn't like that because after all, we the one giving the money to the Pakistani military Uh, when I was in Washington, DC, I was aware of about a transfer of $10 billion. Where did it go? Did the Pakistani people benefit from it? No, it'll end up in private bank accounts in Switzerland. Majority of those, uh, generals at the ISI, from General Bajwa to, uh, some even— I don't know about Qiyani, General Qiyani, but Bajwa I do know, he has properties in England and another two bank accounts, I believe, in England. So, and I'm not saying he's a bad guy. All I'm saying is they are not putting the welfare of the Pakistani people. This is no different than India, you know. And this is why we have the pressure point on those two countries. This is why I'm gonna do the issue of Kashmir, by the way, guys. I'm gonna do a video about Kashmir. We get to the bottom of it and really get to the heart of you know, why the Kashmir issue has been dragged all this time and for what geopolitical reasons that is, and who is fomenting that tension there. So, uh, India of course had to cut off access to internet in certain areas in, in, in, uh, in, in Ladakh. So I'm very familiar with that. I used to travel to, uh, across the borders, uh, in that region, that part of the world. So I'm very familiar with it. So. All right guys, let me see, uh, uh, one, one, uh, take one question for you guys. Once again, just to remind you, uh, uh, the BRI is another issue also. This is why you have the, uh, economic representative of China was in Pakistan recently, and I intend to do a video for you guys about that one because you need to know. Uh, uh, just to remind you, I did the first video on the health channel. Once again, check it out for those who might not be aware of it. Uh, I already post the link of to the health channel. If you will be guys kind and share it with others, uh, who might be interested. And I will be talking about just health issues, uh, on that, that will benefit you. This is not about just sharing, it's what benefits you. So the reason I have this mask, mask, and I feel comfortable saying massive energy. It's because the health style that I lead, or I live here at home, you know, what I eat, the way I sleep, the, the relationship, the— you name it. There's more than just, uh, uh, good food, whatever. So, so I will be sharing those tips with you. All right, let me see if there is any question, and I'm going to sign off because I have to head out somewhere else. And I look forward to the next, uh, live stream. So. All right, I'm going all the way to back to the top here and see if there are one quick question. I'll answer it quickly here. Oh, uh, Mr., Mr. Iman, thank you so much for your Super Sticker. Truly appreciate it. Uh, you wrote, China past weakness and tolerance are the cause of the South China disputes. The Chinese tolerated the Philippines to encroach its territory. ASEAN must kick out the Philippines. China must now show strength, strength to survive. I, I see the logic in your arguments, you know, because like I said last time before, guys— and once again, thank you for your super sticker, truly appreciate it— like I said last time, the West, uh, for us as, as a Westerner, and of course I don't think like that, because I'm geopolitical analyst, I look at things objectively, so I can't fall into the emotions or follow the ideology or, or the supremacy or whatever. No, no, no, no, no, you have to assess the issues objectively. And the way I say it, I'm talking from a Western mindset, is that some of us still think in terms of what China was 40 years ago. We think we still can treat it as such. It's not the case. This is why we don't have any cohesive foreign policy when it comes down to China. We're just reacting, and China is moving faster and faster for— on all fronts: economically, in space, technologically, militarily, you name it, you name it. So, uh, even in literacy. I just read an article yesterday Literacy, illiteracy, it's going up. We are going down in literacy. We dropped to 79% in the US. That's problematic. So, so this is where the issue— and I think we found it— that with the South China Sea, we can always ferment tensions among those countries. So those countries will have to take stand. Philippines can be playing both sides. It's no different than India. Playing both sides in BRICS either. Ask them to either get their act together or get out. Simple as that. That's the way I see it. So, all right guys, I hope you guys enjoyed this live stream here, and I look forward to seeing you next time. As always, remember, geopolitics impacts your daily life in more ways than one. Till next time, guys, bye-bye.