In this interview excerpt, George Friedman discusses the United States' desire for substantial NATO forces in Europe and the expectation that European nations would decide on their use while conducting independent foreign policies. He notes that when the U.S. sought coordinated sanctions or boycotts against China, only three Western countries—France, Canada, and the United Kingdom—aligned with the U.S., with France being the least reliable. Friedman emphasizes that Canada and the UK are dependable allies, citing Canada's historical loyalty and the UK's deployment of an aircraft carrier. He explains that the core alliance now is the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing group (U.S., UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand), which he views as the set of nations willing to take risks alongside the United States. When asked about New Zealand, Friedman says it will follow Australia’s lead, confirming its alignment with the U.S. through the Five Eyes framework.
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In their ideal world, uh, and this is not a joke, they want the United States to station substantial forces there under NATO so Europeans get to decide whether they'd be used, and in addition allow the Europeans to conduct their own foreign policy. We sort of have done that. So when it came time to talk about sanctions against China or joining us in boycotts or what have you, Only 3 countries, France, Canada, and the United Kingdom went with us, and the rest of them said they're going to have to think about it.
Would you have predicted those 3? If you'd have said to me last week what 3 Western countries would side with the U.S. with regard to the Chinese threat, I would not have known to guess those 3.
Well, the Canadians are still our buddies. For all the stuff Biden has done, they'll be with us. They always have been. The British, of course, they sent this aircraft carrier down there. They don't have many, but they came. As for the French, they're kind of in a duel with the Germans to who dominates. So whatever the Germans do right now, the French do the opposite. So just as we get ticked off by the French, they're ticking off the rest of Europe. On the other hand, the French are not going to do anything substantial. The British will. The Canadians will. And it's, you know, there's something called the Five Eyes, which is an intelligence-sharing group, which is UK, Canada, the United States, Australia, and New Zealand. And that Five Eyes is the core alliance we have right now. These are the countries that will stand with us, and they'll take risks with us.
Even New Zealand?
Well, they'll do what the Australians do because they have to, but they certainly will make nasty speeches about it. They're with us. My brother-in-law lives down there, and he assures me so. He wouldn't lie to me.
Your brother-in-law lives in New Zealand? How interesting. He's a radio talk show host, believe it or not. Greatest profession ever invented. My friend, it is George Friedman. Speak to you soon. Take care. Bye-bye. See, he didn't say be safe. One thing I would request people not do is say be safe to me. That's geopoliticallyutures.com. Sign up now for my trip to Israel. You'll have the time of your life. The banner is at DennisPrager.com.
