In this segment of The Dennis Prager Show, host Dennis Prager and former Israeli diplomat Michael Oren discuss how the war in Ukraine has drained Western stockpiles of arms, leaving fewer munitions available for Israel. Oren recounts his long‑standing push, dating back to his time as a Knesset deputy minister, for Israel to achieve munitions independence so it would not be vulnerable to foreign supply cuts. He explains that U.S. military aid, once about 50% of Israel’s defense budget, has fallen to roughly 15%, but it still ties Israel to buying American weapons, creating economic opportunity costs and political leverage for U.S. politicians. Oren argues that a partnership based on equality—co‑development in cyber, laser, intelligence, and weapons—would be healthier than a donor‑recipient relationship. When asked about the consequences of a potential future U.S. decision to halt aid, Oren says Israel would be severely exposed unless it had already built self‑sufficiency, which he estimates would take several years. He notes that Israel has already begun domestic production of certain munitions, some of which he claims are superior to foreign equivalents, and that eventual export could offset costs. The conversation underscores the strategic, economic, and political stakes of Israel’s reliance on Western arms and the urgency of developing an indigenous defense industry.
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The point you made there was, was I can't believe I hadn't thought of it. It really— I hate when I hear a great point and I think, why didn't I think of that? The depleting of Western arms because of the war in Ukraine. So even if places wanted to send arms to Israel, there isn't the quantity that was normally available. Did I hear you correctly?
Correctly. And because nobody in the West has any. Ukraine itself is short on these type of arms. And I've been a longtime advocate when I was in government, when I was in the Knesset and I was the deputy minister, I was a longtime advocate of establishing munitions independence for the state of Israel, not to be dependent on anybody, because I was very much influenced by a decision made by the Obama administration back in 2014 in an earlier war with Hamas, where the administration said we were killing too many Palestinians and they began to delay the supply of vital munitions. And I concluded that Israel can never be in a situation where it's dependent on any foreign government to that degree. And I thought maybe we could get into another war that would be, you know, far larger, and all of a sudden someone's going to, you know, turn off the faucet. And that is what has happened. And it greatly constrains our decision-making and our maneuverability.
I assume that the reason that they didn't take your advice, although obviously they do have their own arms industry in Israel, is simply the economics of it, because Israel has a budget and it can't be so imbalanced toward armaments. Is that the problem?
Well, that was the argument that the army gave me. The army is a very powerful lobby in Israel, and they said, listen, we've already spent the money, and But American arms aid to Israel— and of course, we deeply appreciate the aid— it comes to about $4 billion a year. And once upon a time, that was a huge share of Israel's defense budget. It was about 50%. Today it's about 15%. And the question is, okay, what are the opportunity costs that are lost by receiving the $4 billion? We can't sell to whom we want. We have to buy things that basically the United States tells us to buy because that's $4 billion. Are in essence a subsidy for the American arms industry. All that money is spent in the United States on American arms. And I think also that that type of relationship where we are the receiving of largesse from the United States opens us up to charges by politicians— and I won't name them, but you know them— who say, well, we can criticize Israel because we give you money. All right? And I don't think that is— I don't think that's appropriate for a country which is strong, which is affluent. And lives in a tough neighborhood. We can't afford to broadcast that type of dependency and weakness. So I recommended that we get into a relationship of equality, of cooperating with the United States, and not be on the receiving end, but really be a partner in areas like cyber defense, laser defense, certainly intelligence, weapons development. And that's a healthy relationship, and I hope we go to that. At the same time, we will achieve munitions production independence in the future.
Hmm. So would it be a curse or a blessing or mixed if, let's say, next year an American administration would announce no more military aid to Israel?
Well, it depends if we were in a position at that point to be independent. It would be very, very difficult if we weren't. And then, you know, we would be grievously exposed to aggression by all our enemies, I conclude.
How long would it take Israel to become independent, in your view?
It will take several years, I would imagine. It depends, you know, if we really expedite the process. I know there were certain types of munitions that even during— I was in the Second Lebanon War in 2006, and the Bush administration even gave us criticism for using certain types of minitions. And we concluded that we had to make those munitions for ourselves, and we did. And I'm told— I'm not an artilleryman, I'm a paratrooper, I'm an infantryman— but I'm told that our munitions are actually superior.
That's right. And Israel would then be in a position to do what America and others do, is, as you mentioned, sell. So it would cover some of the costs. For the full episode of The Dennis Prager Show, go to pragertopia.com, sign up, and become a full member.
