Endgame Book

The book exists because the thinking already existed. I've been working on these arguments for years, building Cadena, talking to clients, and reading Austrian economics, watching the COVID inflation era play out in real time. What this book does is externalize a body of thought I've been carrying around for some time. The book is called Endgame, which Bitcoin, Sovereign Debt, and the Return of Sound Capital. It's for serious Bitcoiners and the intellectually curious, the CFAs and the allocators who are now taking the asset seriously and want a framework rather than a price target. It builds on previous work in the space and pushes Hayek's critique of central banking explicitly. It develops the cost of capital argument that the conventional treatment of sovereign debt misses for decades. It argues that a market-discovered Bitcoin yield curve is the missing civilizational primitive that completes the system Bitcoin started. I built Kadena because I'm persuaded by this. This long-term argument is right. I wrote the book because the argument needed to be made in long form and nobody else was making it the way I see it. Half the proceeds go to support children's surf programs at the Surf Dojo here in Playa Hermosa, Costa Rica, and in Bitcoin Beach in El Zonte, El Salvador. The book is dedicated to the ocean and what it teaches, and to the Bitcoin community in El Zonte that proved that sound money is not a thought experiment. Free download is available at cadenabitcoin.com/endgame. You can pay in Lightning or Bitcoin at the listed price. If you try to pay in fiat, the price doubles. That's the world the book argues for. Hope you enjoy it. We have not had a market-discovered yield curve in a major economy for 50 years. Think about that for a moment. The yield curve is the most important price signal in the entire economy. It's how capital gets coordinated across time with schedule of interest rates at which borrowers can borrow for 3 months to 30 years. Long-duration, capital-intensive projects like infrastructure, factories, real estate, research all depend on the long end of the curve. Short-duration projects depend on the short end. The relative pricing across time is what determines what projects get built and which don't. So when the yield curve is determined by market discovery, by the actual willingness of savers to defer consumption, against actual demand from borrowers, carries real information about the economy's intertemporal time preferences. But since 1971, every major sovereign yield curve in the world has been a managed yield curve. In capitalist systems, central banks set the short rate, quantitative easing sets the long rate, and forward guidance shapes everything in between. The most important price in the economy is no longer a price, but an administrative output guided by CNBC. The Bitcoin yield curve, as it emerges from a market-discovered Bitcoin collateral lending market, is the first true yield curve of any major economic system in 50 years. It's not a financial product, but the— but Hayek's argument in working code. And almost nobody's talking about it in those terms, but I'm pretty sure they will be.

Everyone has a cost of capital.

Households have one, corporations have one, sovereigns have one. Whether they admit it or not, it determines what they can build, what they can fund, and what they have to forgo. The current monetary system distorts this price across every actor in the economy. The sovereign borrower pays whatever his central bank decides. The largest banks borrow at that policy rate, plus a small spread. Investment-grade corporations pay even more. Households—you guessed it—they pay more too. And small businesses often pay the most. This hierarchy isn't a function of true credit risk. It's a function from distance from the central bank's credit spigot. A Bitcoin-anchored monetary system with a market-discovered yield curve in Bitcoin-collateralized credit would equalize this. The same market rates available to anyone with the same collateral, regardless of his political proximity to any monetary authority. The sovereign would no longer be a privileged borrower, just another borrower competing for capital. And for most modern sovereigns with debt levels above 100% of GDP, unfunded entitlements many times reported debt levels, market rates would be substantially higher than what they currently pay. Many programs would become uneconomic and more— many wars unaffordable. The state remains, the state's privileged access to subsidized capital does not. This is what the Bitcoin economy This is what Bitcoin actually does to the political economy. If your financial advisor is still selling you the 60/40 portfolio, you're paying for a model that died in 2022 and nobody told you, or your financial advisor. The 60/40 portfolio, 60% stocks, 40% bonds, was built on 3 assumptions. First, that stocks and bonds are negatively correlated. Second, that bonds offer a positive real return. And third, that the Fed stands behind everything. Well, all three broke in 2022. Both halves of the 60/40 portfolio fell for the— at the same time in what was the worst year for the model in modern history. Long-dated Treasuries, safe, risk-free bonds, fell by more than 30%. The Fed had to choose between defending asset prices and defending the currency. And for the first time in a generation, the Fed chose the currency. The conditions that produced 2022 have not gone away. Fiscal positions are worse, debt servicing costs are higher, and inflation pressure is structural. What replaces the bond allocation is the question every serious portfolio has to answer in the next decade. The answer is not more bonds. The answer is something whose return is not a function of central bank policy choices. That's the case I make in my book, Endgame, that Bitcoin and Bitcoin collateralized credit, sized properly, replace the conventional fixed income sleeve that no longer does its job. Well, if you haven't noticed, folks, the fiat money is broken. In 2022, the money supply in the United States was $15 trillion. By 2022, it was almost $22 trillion. In 2 years, they expanded the money supply by 40%. You probably noticed the inflation. Eggs went up, gas went up, your grocery bill went up. CPI peaked above 9%, but that's not where the money went. The money went into assets. The S&P doubled. Case-Shiller Home Price Index posted the fastest year-over-year gains in history. Bitcoin went to $69,000. If you owned assets, you got wealthier, and if you didn't, you got priced out. That is the Cantillon Effect. New money doesn't enter the system everywhere at the same time. It comes in at the top and builds up, bids up what people near the top own. By the time it reaches the wages of ordinary households, the asset prices have already moved. Central banks aren't airdropping fiat tokens on Anyone? Just a few select banks. That's the system. I'm not making it up. I couldn't even make that up. This is how monetary expansion works.

The book exists because the thinking already existed. I've been working on these arguments for years, building Cadena, talking to clients, reading Austrian economics, and watching the COVID era inflation play out in real time. What this book does is externalize a body of thought I've been carrying within me for quite some time. The book is called Endgame: Bitcoin, Sovereign Debt, and the Return of Sound Capital. It's for serious Bitcoiners, the intellectually curious, the CFAs, and the allocators who are now taking the asset seriously and want a framework rather than a price target. It builds on previous work in the space and pushes the Hayekian critique of central banking explicitly. It develops the cost of capital argument that conventional treatment of sovereign debt has missed for decades. It argues that a market-discovered Bitcoin yield curve is the missing civilizational primitive that completes the system Bitcoin started. I built Cadena because I'm persuaded the argument is right. I wrote the book because I see it as an argument that needed to be made in long form, and nobody else was making it the way I see it. Half of the proceeds go to support children's surf programs at the Surf Dojo here in Hermosa, Costa Rica, and Bitcoin Beach in El Salvador. The book is dedicated to the ocean, what it teaches, and to the Bitcoin community in El Zonte, the proof that sound money is not a thought experiment. You can download a free copy at cadenabitcoin.com/endgame. Pay in Bitcoin or Lightning at the listed price. Pay in fiat, the price doubles. That's the world the book argues for. We haven't had a market-discovered yield curve in any major economy for 50 years. Think about that for a moment. The yield curve is the single most important price signal in the entire economy. It's how capital is coordinated across time The schedule of interest rates at which borrowers can borrow from 3 months, 1 year, 10 years, 30 years— long-duration, capital-intensive projects from infrastructure, factories, real estate, research depend on the long end of the curve. Short-duration projects depend on the short end. The relative price of capital across time is what determines which projects get built and which do not. When the yield curve is determined by market discovery, by the actual willingness of savers to defer consumption against actual demand from borrowers, it carries information about the economy's intertemporal time preferences. Since 1971, every major sovereign yield curve in the world has been a managed yield curve. Central banks set the short rate. Quantitative easing sets the long rate. And forward guidance shapes everything in between. The most important price in the economy is no longer a price. It's an administrative output from a committee. The Bitcoin yield curve, as it emerges from market-discovered Bitcoin collateralized lending, is the first true yield curve in any major economic system in 50 years. This is not a financial product. It's the operationalization of Hayek's argument in working code. Almost nobody is talking about it in those terms, but I'm sure they will be. Everyone has a cost of capital. Households have one, corporations have one, sovereigns have one. Whether they admit it or not, it determines what they can build, what they can fund, and what they have to forgo. The current monetary system distorts this price across every actor in the economy. The sovereign borrow at whatever rate his own central bank decides. The largest banks borrow at that policy rate plus a small spread. Investment-grade corporations pay more. Households pay even more again. Often small business pays the most. This hierarchy isn't a function of true credit risk. It's a function of distance from the central bank's credit spigot. A Bitcoin-anchored monetary system with a market-discovered yield curve in a Bitcoin-collateralized credit would equalize this. The same market rate available to anyone with the same collateral, regardless of his political proximity to any monetary authority. The sovereign would no longer be a privileged borrower, he would just be another borrower competing for capital. For most sovereigns today, debt above 100% of GDP, unfunded entitlements, many times reported debt levels, the market rate would be substantially higher than what they're currently paying. Many programs would become uneconomic, many unaffordable. The state remains. The state's privileged access to subsidized capital does not. This is what Bitcoin actually does to the political economy. Warren Buffett has said the same thing for almost 50 years and no one listens. The biggest mistakes of his investing life were not the investments he made. They were great investments he saw but did not buy. Errors of omission. The Walmart shares he did not purchase, the Microsoft stock he passed on, The investments where he was right and small. Charlie Munger said it more directly: Errors of omission are by far the largest errors of his career. This applies to anyone thinking about Bitcoin sizing. The risk of holding 5% when 25% is warranted for an asymmetric, high conviction asset is much larger than the risk of holding 25% when 5 was warranted. Drawdowns can be uncomfortable. Missed upside is permanent. If you genuinely believe the asset has meaningful probability of substantial outperformance, the question is not whether you are being too aggressive. The question is whether your margin of safety is itself the source of error. Buffett figured this out. Most money they ever made was on an Apple position. But most investors never do. If your financial advisor is still selling you the 60/40 portfolio, you're paying for a model that died in 2022 and nobody told you, or apparently your financial advisor. The 60/40 portfolio, 60% stocks and 40% bonds, was built on 3 assumptions. First, that stocks and bonds are negatively correlated. Second, that bonds offer positive real yield. And third, that the Fed stands behind everything. Well, in 2022, all three broke. Both halves of the 60/40 portfolio fell at the same time in what was the worst year for the model in modern history. Long-dated treasuries lost more than 30%— safe treasuries. The Fed had chosen between defending asset prices and defending the currency, and for the first time in a generation, The Fed chose the currency. The conditions that produced 2022 have not gone away. Fiscal positions are worse. Debt services are higher. Inflation pressures are structural. What replaces the bond allocation is the question every serious portfolio has to answer in the next decade. The answer is not more bonds. The answer is something whose return is not a function of central bank policy choices. That's the case I make in the book. Bitcoin and Bitcoin collateralized credit, sized properly, replacing the conventional fixed income sleeve that no longer does its job. Welcome to 2026. If you haven't noticed, the fiat money is broken. In 2020, the money supply in the United States was $15 trillion, and by 2022, it was almost $22 trillion. In 2 years, the money supply expanded by 40%. You probably noticed the inflation. Eggs went up, gas went up, your grocery bill went up, and CPI peaked at over 9%. That's not where the money went. The money went into assets. The S&P nearly doubled. The Case-Shiller Home Price Index posted the fastest year-over-year gains in its history. Bitcoin went to $69,000. If you owned assets, you got wealthier. If you didn't, you got priced out. That's the Cantillon Effect. The new money doesn't enter everywhere at once. It enters at the top and bids up what people near the top own. By the time it reaches the wages of ordinary households, the asset prices have already moved. Central banks aren't airdropping fiat tokens on everyone. That would be too fair. Just a select few banks. That's the system. I'm not making it up. I couldn't make it up. This is what monetary expansion works. Not inflation in rice and beans. Inflation in the things asset holders own. We just lived through it. The math is the math. It's coming again.