Kevin Surace argues climate models underestimate discontinuities and tipping points. The Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers could collapse and raise sea level six feet. 2023 saw record atmospheric rivers, Canadian wildfires, Spanish heatwaves, and a super-typhoon hitting Guam, signaling accelerating volatility.
Let's assume that this thing can't be modeled and in fact discontinuities are the norm. You know, that gives us a bell curve of possible outcomes. Just for argument's sake, let's say the IPCC was very conservative. The IPCC, most of these models were in fact assuming a straight-line approximation. Yes. And in fact discontinuities are quite common throughout nature. Just looking at water, right? And take a look at what we're talking about in the Antarctic. And it's that area right there. That's Pine Island and Thwaites. So that's been in place for some 20 million years. It's melting and thinning at a record pace. If they collapse, just those pieces alone, the sea would in fact rise by 6 feet. Certainly at the South Pole, and absolutely already at the North Pole, they're approaching 15-degree Fahrenheit rises. So this can be tracked over time. It's very clear. And that takes us out towards the end of the century. But I don't think we want to be on an Earth that looks that red and that dark. Statewide, on average, at 192%. Again, we are tracking what looks like an atmospheric river. Kels, look at this. This is a rainfall estimate from Friday into Saturday. Canada's fire authorities have never seen anything like it, and separate wildfires have burnt all over the country. It's the worst forest fire in record history. It's never happened before. This projection from Spain's Met Office shows the country's seeing record-breaking temperatures. And let's have a look at 2023. This dark red line, you see the trajectory is much steeper. First responders searched for more possible victims on Saturday after powerful tornadoes tore through Arkansas. Earth reaching its highest temperature on record for a 4th day in a row. And then go out west where that heat is building and going to stick for the next couple of weeks. Whoa, that's crazy. This is the Los Angeles metro area. The storm made landfall yesterday. The first glimpse of the damage on Guam after it was hit by a super typhoon. Are you tired of hearing the word atmospheric rivers? Yep. So let's say that there is no climate change and we act. Well, we would waste money. We would invent new technologies and we'd probably reduce our reliance on oil. But if there is no climate change and we do not act, well, life goes on. Now let's say there is climate change and we do act. Well, we do spend money. We probably save a billion lives. We invent new technology and we reduce our reliance Now let's suppose there is climate change and we choose not to act. Billions die, there's large war, there's horrible famine and drought, end of world as we know it, total economic collapse and possible extinction. There's really only one lottery ticket I would personally like to play, which is we act and we assume that there is going to be climate change. Unpredictability is now the one thing we can count on.
