NEVER ENTER into these IFVG trades... (80% win rate model)

In this instructional video Kai Davis walks viewers through the entire April 6, 2026 intraday session, demonstrating how to derive higher‑timeframe bias and execute trades using fair value gaps (FVGs), liquidity sweeps, and trendline liquidity. He starts by assessing daily and 4‑hour charts, noting a bearish FVG that remains unfilled, then moves to the 4‑hour where bullish candle closes above the bearish gap signal a bullish bias. Throughout the 1‑hour, 15‑minute, and sub‑minute charts he explains why certain price moves (e.g., high‑price sweeps) do not automatically reverse bias, warning against common trader misconceptions. He highlights the influence of a 10 AM “red‑folder” news event on volume and price consolidation, and stresses patience during sideways ranges. The core live‑trade example occurs on the 3‑minute and 4‑minute timeframes: a bearish FVG combined with a bullish SMT (Smart Money Technique) provides entry criteria, leading to a long position with a 1:1‑1.5 risk‑reward target that hits the exact take‑profit level before a minor reversal. Risk management rules (candle‑close confirmation, stop‑loss placement) are reiterated. The video concludes with a promotion of his Discord community and upcoming Inner Circle launch, encouraging viewers to subscribe and join the daily live‑trading sessions.
Chapters
Welcome to another video on this second channel where we go over how you're going to become profitable. And in today's video, we're actually going to be fully breaking down Monday the 6th of April's price action because it was interesting, and at the end of the day, you could have been up money. Now let's start with arguably one of the most important time frames, the higher time frames. Getting your higher time frame bias and how you're going to predict where the market wants to go on the higher time frames. Now I said predict there, we're not really predicting the market, we're just reacting to what the market is telling us exactly what it wants us to do. Now the daily time frame is a bit tricky today. We don't, we don't have this candle close yet, so we are currently respecting this bearish FVG. So we always need to keep that in the mind that we are expecting this bearish FVG because of course we haven't got this bullish candle close above it yet, which means that we could easily respect this fair value gap and get some sort of move down. So that could always happen. We drop to the 4-hour time frame, and this is where our bias starts to become a bit more clear. We've got a bullish candle close— or we got some bullish candle closes above this bearish fair value gap. Now, a very common misconception that a lot of traders have is just because we swept this high here, as you can see, we swept this high, this does not now mean that we have to come down, and this does not make our bias bearish. So when we're looking for a bullish bias, we're waiting for a bullish candle close to be above a bearish FVG, and that's exactly what we have here. Now, our target would be this buy side liquidity. This is where price should go in the short term. Now, just because price has now swept this high, this does not mean that price needs to go in the opposite direction, okay? That is a very common misconception. If we do get a move down and we start to come down here, then we can use that as context and then potentially look to enter into lower price action and catch shorts potentially to this low right here. But That is the current situation. We are bullish. Just because we set this high does not mean we're bearish. Now the 1-hour time frame is quite interesting, or it was quite interesting. Where are we at right here? So yeah, the 1-hour was quite interesting going into today because we ultimately were also respecting this bullish fair value gap right here. So as you can see, we came down, we were wicking it a lot. If we got a candle close below this bullish FVG, again, this could have came and made us move down in the short term, lower, potentially being more interested short positions, but that did not happen. And overall, we was looking more bullish and looking more for longs. At open, we got this crazy candle. Now, we can expect this with everything that's going on, with what Trump's doing, with the whole world right now. We can expect more volume, and yeah, it's just crazy. So at open, we got the 65-point candle. Also, on the 15-minute time frame, we had some unmitigated FVGs here. So unmitigated fair value gaps are just very, very nice target. So we had that 15-minute unmitigated FVG right above. Oh, never mind, that instantly got swept. We came down, swept south side liquidity. We, um, again, we tapped into that 15. Right here we're trading below this bullish fair value gap there. So yeah, we swept south side liquidity. Price then comes up. I know we inverse a 2-minute FVG here. The reason why this is not a good trade to take, chat, is because we Well, it's not a nice candle close. Firstly, a lot of wick on that candle. Ideally, we just want more displacement candle. Secondly, we go to the 1-minute time frame, we are still respecting this 1-minute FVG. So, so many traders would get trapped into taking long positions here, then this long position would fail horribly, and then they would be like, oh yeah, obviously it failed, the 1-minute time frame did not emboss. So don't get trapped into taking trades like this because over a long period of time these will end up failing, okay? That's very important, especially with the context here. We have red folder news at 10 AM, so in 15 minutes. Yeah, so just don't take long. That, that did end up working and going for the highs. And what's also important to note today, we have red folder news at 10 AM New York time. So where I've just put that line is where we have red folder news today. So kind of up until that point, we don't really get anything. We kind of just chop and consolidate. And right here, this is just the price action, guys, where have to be patient, okay? Price is coming down at 10 AM. We've left news highs above. There's nothing really that we can do right here. We, we've came down, we've not got a single fair value gap entry. If we did get some sort of fair value gap entry potentially up here, that could have been nice. Or even if we got some sort of move down, that would have been very clean as well for potential shorts. The reason being, on the 1-hour time frame as well, we have a nice short on liquidity being the trendline liquidity. Now I do think this will get swept sooner or later It's just very strong trendline liquidity. It seems to be working a lot recently. Trendline liquidity seems to be working a lot recently. So if I got some short positions here, I would definitely be interested in taking and holding for this trendline liquidity. We just sadly did not get any potential entry short. As we can see, we kind of came up again here, then we entered this no trading, unprofitable zone. If you trade this price action during this zone, you will simply become even more unprofitable. Okay, you never want to take trades when we're just ranging, going sideways. You have to be patient there. Then we get this nice bearish candle. This, I believe, is a 3-minute time frame, right? No, no, I'm getting ahead of myself. So we had a nice 1-minute 5-hour gap here. I probably would have took some lighter entries if we embarrassed this 1-minute with displacement, but we failed to inverse this 1-minute here. Um, the reason being we're respecting that 15-minute. The bias is We're expecting this bullish 5-hour up here, I believe, at the time, but it's not respect— yeah, so at the time I believe we were expecting that 15-minute FBG. On replay it shows that it was inverse, but we was respecting it at that time. And so yeah, I would have took 1-minute longs there probably if we reversed it with displacement, as long as we didn't leave the, the 3-minute open. But yeah, we did not get a trade there. Then we just kind of chop and go sideways. Remember guys, I trade this price action live every single day. I know right now I'm just tape reading it and going back on it. But literally 1 hour ago, I was live in Discord. Over 300 people watched me trade this live. So make sure you join the, the link in the Discord and check the link in the bio for the Inner Circle launch, April 16th. So this move down, very, very, very nice to be honest. We're just waiting for that trade again. We could have got some potential short positions here. We just failed to, to create anything. If we go to the higher time frames, this is actually where I took a trade. So we have a 3-minute bearish FVG. As well as this 3-minute bearish FVG, we also have a bullish SMT. So we have— let me mark that properly— we have a bullish SMT right here. I believe it's that, or even that, but no, I'm 99% sure we had a bullish SMT here. We have a 3-minute FVG, which is also a 4-minute FVG. It's not a 1-minute, it's not a 2-minute, it's not a 5-minute. So we're only looking at the 3 and the 4-minute time frame here. We actually inverse the 4 minute fair value gap before we unbox this 3-minute, sadly with no entry. Then we get this nice candle close with the SMT, swept south side liquidity. So this is where I entered into my long positions. Now, where would your take profit be with this current market conditions? As I said on my live stream, this right here would be your take profit and should be. The reason being it's above a 1:1 risk reward, it's around a 1:1.5. The market conditions are not amazing recently Again, with everything that's going on, you just want to make sure that you're securing profits. So that would be a nice take profit point. Enter on the 3-minute candle close only if we get a candle close below this FBG. Now I would set a maximum stop loss with this price action, again just with anything that could happen. So always manage your risk correctly. And yeah, this trade ends up hitting take profit literally to the point, to the tick, and then ends up reversing slightly there. So well done if you took that and took profits. Then we ended up getting some consolidation after. Again, just sums up the price action. This is going into the 11 to 12 lunchtime macro though. I hope you enjoyed this video going over the markets, going over the full trading session. One trade to take, I took that trade all on livestream. This is what we do every single day, trade these market conditions to our fullest and, and use our advantage that we have, use our edge. Of course The links are in the bio. Make sure to join the Discord, join the community. I'm posting on this channel literally every single day, so make sure you subscribe. Let's go, guys!
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