In a talk at the MCC Budapest Peace Forum, economist Jeffrey Sachs argues that the war in Ukraine did not begin with the February 2022 Russian invasion but with the 2014 overthrow of President Viktor Yanukovych, a coup in which the United States played a decisive role. Sachs claims Yanukovych pursued a neutral policy balancing the EU/US and Russia, and his removal led to a Russophobic government that the U.S. and Europe quickly backed, aiming to pull Ukraine into the Western orbit and, ultimately, NATO. He cites a 2008 leaked CIA memo warning that extending NATO to Ukraine would be reckless, and a 2021 draft U.S.–Russia security agreement that proposed no NATO enlargement. Sachs describes early 2022 negotiations—mediated by Turkey—that produced a draft peace deal, which the United States rejected, leading to the continuation of hostilities. He concludes that the conflict could end if the United States, under President Biden, commits to halting NATO’s expansion to Ukraine, thereby removing the primary catalyst for war.
Chapters
Because I basically will just amplify them. We're moving to truly a multipolar world. I don't know if it's the Asian century, but it's a century that's no longer the United— the American century. And we're trying to adjust, and we're in the process of coming close to getting ourselves blown up by our stupidity. And so this is a very good occasion to take note, just as events are really heating up in Ukraine, of what to do to pull back from the brink that we're on. We've been at war in Ukraine now for 9 years. The war did not start with February 24th, 2022. That's U.S. propaganda. The war started with the overthrow of Ukraine's President Yanukovych, in which the United States played a major role. Yanukovych was trying to actually protect Ukraine from exactly what has happened. He was trying to navigate between the U.S. and the EU on the one side and Russia on the other side, and so his basic policy was neutrality, and in the end, the United States overthrew him. And the war started at that point. It is funny, we actually even have a tape, of course, of Victoria Nuland, who was our Undersecretary of State, discussing the post-Yanukovych government with the U.S. Ambassador 3 weeks before the overthrow. Like so much in our world today, it is forgotten in the Western media. We do not talk about any such unpleasant things. We do not discuss any facts. We do not discuss any history. We just make up stories that are convenient as we go along. Well, Yanukovych was overthrown, and a truly Russophobic government was replaced Yanukovych, and the United States and Europe immediately, immediately backed the new unconstitutional government because this was part of the idea that now we can move forward. And what the U.S. wanted to move forward was, and what Europe wanted to move forward, was to make sure that Ukraine was pulled into the Western orbit, which unfortunately, because of the U.S. but also European acceptance of this, meant not only the European Union but also NATO. Now they are the same, almost identical. In other words, this is not just an economic alliance or a social grouping or even a political grouping. It is now a military alliance, and this is why we are at war, because the United States insisted on pushing its military alliance up to the 2000 4,000-kilometer border with Russia. And for the last 30 years, Russia said, don't do that. And the United States said, nah, don't worry, we're peace-loving. And every step of this military alliance, Russia said, please don't do that. And the United States, don't worry, we're peace-loving. Maybe a war here and there. but nothing for you to worry about. And NATO kept moving. It came here in the first wave. The next wave was 7 more countries under peace-loving George W. Bush Jr., moving NATO to the Baltic States, to Romania, Bulgaria, and Poland. What is NATO? Bulgaria, Slovenia, Slovakia, and Russia kept saying, stop. Do you understand? Mm-hmm. We are really saying you have got to not put your missiles, your bases, your weaponry on our border. And in 2007, of course, President Putin spelled it out very clearly at the Munich Security Conference. Maybe we should call it the Munich Insecurity Conference, because he said, this is really, really— you have got to stop it. And our current CIA Director, William Burns, in 2008 was The U.S. ambassador to Russia, and he sent a long memo, which I'm sure most of you have seen in 2008. Like everything in the United States, it was secret, so the public would never get to see it except WikiLeaks leaked it so that we get to read it. And the title of the memo was "Yet means yet." And it explained in very clear language how reckless it would be to move NATO to Ukraine because it's not just Putin, it's the entire Russian political system and leadership that says, don't put your military alliance on our border. There. And it's interesting for me that such a memo would never be seen by the Americans except if it's leaked, because our government hides everything, lies on everything. I'm sorry to tell you, it's unbelievable, the propaganda day by day. So Yanukovych was overthrown, the war started, the United States afforded billions of dollars of military armaments, which is what Ukraine is fighting with right now. When Biden came in in 2021, Putin Stop. And Biden said, no, we're peace-loving. Why should we stop? It's an open door. NATO's open door. The biggest nonsense in the world. The nonsense that can get us blown up. What does an open-door military alliance mean when you say— when the other side's saying, Stop. Negotiate, keep some space. It means we do whatever we want. Who are you? And it's actually NATO doctrine that no other country has any say in NATO policy. That's the arrogance that really could get us killed. That's not peacemaking. That's not diplomacy. That is, we do what we want and no one else has any say in what we do. So in 2021, 3 times the United States said Ukraine will be in NATO. On December 17th, 2021, President Putin put on the table as a last step a draft U.S.-Russia security agreement, which said no NATO enlargement. Let's negotiate. Just as a footnote, I called the White House at the time and spoke to one of. our leaders and said, you know, negotiate. Don't extend NATO. Don't get the world blown up. Don't get Ukraine in the middle of a devastating war. This is a complete trap for Ukraine. This isn't friendly to Ukraine. This is going to make Ukraine like Afghanistan, which is another great U.S. achievement. 20 years of nonstop war, and then you leave the country completely destroyed. So that is what I said, and he said to me, Mr. Sachs, do not worry, but NATO is non-negotiable. So that is why we have an unprovoked war. And what's interesting also about the war is that the first few weeks quite clearly was Russia using its military to push Ukraine to the negotiating table, not to take over the country, but to push to negotiations. And Zelenskyy said about 3 weeks after February 24th, we do not have to be in NATO. We can have neutrality. And you know what happened then? The Russians immediately said, okay, let us exchange documents. Let us negotiate. And Turkey, of course, was mediator. And I have had the chance to speak to the negotiators. And they made very good progress, and they actually basically had reached a draft agreement to stop the war. And then what happened? The United States said no to Ukraine. No agreement. Why? And so suddenly negotiations ended. And what did we say in the media? Putin doesn't like to negotiate. There's no one to negotiate. This is our propaganda, nonstop. So really, if we aimed for peace, In Ukraine, we could have it in short order. We could have had it in 2021 without any of this by having NATO not enlarging and the Minsk agreements being honored. Of course, because the Ukrainians did not honor the agreement and the guarantors of the agreement, France and Germany, did not guarantee them, even though the agreements were endorsed by the UN Security Council. So those were the terms in December. I don't know exactly what the terms would be at this point, but this war will stop when Biden stands up and says NATO will not enlarge to Ukraine. And that is the world that we need. Thank you very much.
