Bitcoin Futures as Price Discovery Tool

14 Oct 2025 · 1 min

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Excerpt from a YouTube video ("Bitcoin Futures as Price Discovery Tool" by Kosta Ouzas) presenting an empirical observation: daily, when M2 money supply increases, asset price increases about 70% of the time; when M2 decreases, the price aligns less consistently (reported ~56–60% of the time). The speaker frames this as a strong correlation overall but notes shorter-term mismatches.

Questions this video answers

About 70% of the time.

Reported as about 56%–60% of the time.

70% of the time that M2 goes up, the price also goes up 70% of the time. And these are, you know, for daily moves. Now, it's more consistent when you look long period of times and less when we go down about something like 56% of the time, 60% of the time. So there is a strong correlation between the two is a question of, you know, how closely every little twist and turn corresponds between the two that.