Bitcoin Live with the Power Law & Minotaur Team, #24 9/25/2025

Impact point here, right? We're talking about 855 days to break even, not to make money. I'm not talking about getting excited and making a profit. To break even, to get back to where they started. Now here's the real question. How many people do you think held that drawdown? Because I could tell you most people probably sold at a loss, right? Because the game, if you don't understand how to play it, will trap you. And you know, that is kind of what I wanted to show everyone today and really put emphasis on understanding that if you know where the power law bottom is and the algorithm can buy in that zone, I don't think you can do much better than that. You're naturally trading Bitcoin's natural cyclical behavior and you're respecting and supporting its baseline price. Right. Which allows you to have success long term. So that's what I wanted to show everyone today. Thanks Giovanni.

Fantastic presentation. Costa, you're back from.

Yeah, we're back and we're off on, on Monday actually to Singapore to token 2049. So if anyone's out there who wants to come say hi, Marcus and I are going to be manning the stall in Singapore. Come say hi to us. Yeah.

Should be fun.

Yeah. Be glad, Glad to hear from you. Yeah.

Just to add to what we've been saying is that, you know, this, this opportunity is a really good. Have we looked at the trades for today? I can quickly have a look at that?

Yeah, please, yeah. And again, for anybody that is interested in joining in and using the system, we have a, an address here. Right. You can go to this website, there is a webinar where we go more into details of how it works and what is behind it. You can also DM me on X and I can give you more details and talk to me. But you know, it's, it's really an amazing opportunity that I think it should be almost mandatory for every bitcoiner to have some way, I'm not saying this system but anyway to do odor plus plus because it's really difficult for anybody that you know, particularly if you're a young person to get to a place where just holding bitcoin will change your life. Right. Unless you are a top notch job and you don't have a family, you can save, etc. But if you, if you have a, even a small yield on bitcoin and you're doing it in a clever way, you can multiply your gains by big factors, you know, so it's something that people should really start to Consider and think about very seriously. Anyway, Costa, go ahead.

Yeah, if you just bring up the screen, we'll just have a look at the trades today. I think they're good to look at. So we've, we, we do have.

I don't see your screen.

It's, it's sharing. I think you got to let me.

Do something maybe because. Yeah, we have up to 10 guests. Okay. Yeah, you should be able to. This was mine. Show me. I don't see yours.

Yeah, yeah, it's coming down. Okay, sorry.

Okay, now it is. Yep.

Yeah. So, so, so you know the market's fractal. We always say that this is a lower time frame. This is also an update to the settings that we've rolled out on. Actually, I'm going to put this on the 10 minute because we're running now on the 10 minute. Right Sebastian?

Yeah, for the higher frequency style.

Yes.

So you can just see here how beautifully this is. My computer's really slow, my Internet. But you can see the entries here down at 109, 208. Another one yesterday at about 112. Another one before that, 115. But you'll see how aggressively this has brought down the weighted average price. So we entered here at around 117. We're currently down 112 with a take profit at 114. So again, just illustrating the point of how when the market gives us these corrections, these pullbacks, we're able to DCA and take profits by walking the price down. So extremely powerful strategy. And especially if you're holding bitcoin, it's a way to be, you're almost, you're almost hedging your bitcoin position, right. Because your bitcoin's going down in value but your trading profits are going up. So you know this price action is, is good. You know, we are all looking forward to, to, to breaking through into all time highs. But you know, these kind of big drops do provide us with a lot of opportunities. So yeah, I thought just good to look at those prices.

It is Costa, kind of a thing where once you get comfortable and it is a mindset shift because once you get comfortable with it actually you kind of want. Now we all want a bull run, but when you dca, you want price to fall as well. So the fear kind of starts to dissipate, doesn't it? Once you get used to this style of trading when the price.

Yeah, absolutely. I actually want to put it back on the 15 because it gives me just a bit more latitude to see what's going on. But you know, Giovanni was saying it's always exciting when you're running this algo. Just, just have a look at here, right, so we've gone from 117 down to 108. We've taken profit, the market's kind of chopped and we've done all these entries and exits and now we're back here doing a nice big dca. So this is really exciting price action. And it's just sitting between that 120 to 108 range. You can see how many entries and exits have happened.

Really though many people always tell me of the biggest value that they get from the power law is that their conviction is strengthened. And also, you know, yada, I have almost every day people send me some, they just say, listen, thank, thank God for the power law because it makes me more calm, it makes me more relaxed about, you know, I know that this is a long term trajectory. If people start to use this, this is in addition to that because I, that happened even to me, you know, because even if I am around since now, what, almost 12 years in 13 years in the bitcoin world, you know, it's always, it's just human nature, right? The price corrects, it goes down. You feel a little bit scared, right? What if it goes to zero?

Right?

And it is never going to happen. But at the same time you are, you know, you like when the price goes up. Well, I still like when the price goes up, but now I'm much more neutral because in particular, in fact, I like it when it goes up after it goes down because I love it. I accumulated all these, all this extra bitcoin, cheap bitcoin. And then when it goes up, I have actually, I'm taking advantage of that in particular. If this going up and down is going to be basically the future of bitcoin, we are going to oscillate around the power law. Every time it goes down, you are collecting, you're like basically Marcus is saying you're getting, you know, the groceries, you're getting the snacks ready for the road trip snacks. This is what you're doing, you know, and I'm happy about that. I say, okay, great, look at this, you know, and I hear that ringing bell, you know, because I'm working on the computer, my trading view is on. And when there is an alarm every time he buys it rings the bell. Sometime it happens when I'm sleeping, of course, but. And it doesn't matter if it is a bell associated with selling. And I made more bitcoin oh, with buying. Because. Okay, yeah, the price corrected. We are buying cheap. It's. It's incredible. I don't know how else to say this. So, you know, I really invite you to explore this with us to see what is about, you know, and it's beyond us. We are not trying to do a sale pitch even if, if I. We are a company and we are trying to do a business and is a legit business. It's really a passion. You know, I'm very passionate about this approach. You know, I really believe that this is where bitcoiners need to start to shift their focus and think in a different way about what, what it means to be a Bitcoin.

Absolutely. Absolutely.

100.

Well said.

Some of these comments are really good that are coming through.

Look at them. So there is something about October. What do you guys think about that?

Yes, there's a seasonality to it. Of course there's seasonality because there's a seasonality. There's a seasonality to liquidity. Monetary cycles, economic cycles. So yeah, there's a. There is some seasonality and it also, there's. It also aligns with the power law. There's a. There's a. Not only a price level, but there's a time level as well. There's a time for things to take place and play out. So. Yeah.

Yep, yep. Yeah. In general, the end of the year is pretty bullish. You know, again, we don't know we are starting new territory, you know, but there are some reasons why the market can be bullish. There are a lot of companies that close their books at the end of the year, you know, so if you do something, they are trying to do it at the end of the year. There are some pickup of activities. You know, people, some people in particular in Europe they take long vacation during the summer. So now they are back. And so yeah, there is some, historically there is some uptake in the market at the end of it here.

Thank you.

Now, you know, we don't know if that means a super bull action from bitcoin to actually maybe catch up. But I, I like, I like the liquidity chart that Marcos showed and that 125 at the minimum seems reachable. You know, we should go back to that and maybe even higher, you know, like beating basically the all time high, you know. All right.

He.

Okay, so somebody's telling us from. I. From Florida. See.

All right. Lakeland in the house. All right, nice.

Okay here, what do you say?

Okay, so where do we think it goes after the 121 liquidity is taken. Well, that puts us in, that puts us in the next level. So yeah, that, that brings in the 125, 130, 140. All that starts to come in play. We have to have a way to get there. So yeah, that opens the door for that higher prices. Now that, that being said, it doesn't mean we're going to go straight there, but we're heading that direction. Yes. Probably around November, December. Yeah.

And our friend Adario Voulo.

Hey, there he is.

There he is actually using the bot. He's. He's doing very, very well with the boat.

Yeah.

And the topping how this year, you guys can tell, I, you know, every place in the past we say 200k and that 200k was not an opinion. Right?

It was.

I never. It's not about opinion, it's all about math. It was based on this decay of the peaks that seem to have a very precise pattern. And we say, look, you know, if this pattern continues, this is where we are going. And actually many people told me when I did that it was too conservative. Right. Everybody was talking about 400amillion, you know, and they meant this year, not, you know, now they say this cycle with which cycle you're talking about? I meant this at the end of the year when usually the cycle ended. But now even that seems optimistic. Right. I will not be surprised if we go to 135, 140, even just three to stay on top of a power law. By the end of the year we should be around 130, something like that. Otherwise we will be below the power law. So.

Right.

I think we are simply, even at a minimum, we are simply oscillating around the power loss. So we should do at least 130.

Yes, concur.

What about the business cycle? Yeah, very. You know, I look at PMI for example, and bitcoin strongly correlates with pmi. And now PMI is pretty flat and usually it does peak at the end of the year. So we don't know, you know, it's. We are kind of in a new territory where, you know, usually these cycles you already see hints that we are going up. All right. It doesn't wait until November and then it jumps. All of a sudden you start to see an uptick of a cycle. You know, they bullied started. I say actually November, it usually lasted one year. It took one year to bring us all of it all, all, you know, on the top. It's possible that some people talking about extending it to January, February. Everything is possible, you know, but it's unusual. We never usually we don't do that. So we will have to see. And you guys can answer that too.

I can answer this one.

Yes.

If you were. I'm not sure if you just joined, if you were watching the presentation I did earlier. The purpose of that was to show that the power of buying going long at the right time on Bitcoin, regardless of whether you're at the top of the market. So it's always better to trade long. Historically especially I can tell you, being a developer, the back testing and live testing we've done is historically, it's not a good idea to go short on Bitcoin unless you have a really clear understanding of leverage and margin efficiency. So typically, especially if you're new into this space, run it long because it's so forgiving and it works.

Any good.

Love you guys.

Yeah.

So again, Dario, I look at ISM and pmi. They are very similar and it's a complicated thing. I, I need to go back. This is a comment that it was making. I need to go back and do some more sophisticated study looking a grander casuality. But there are also other measures. Like one of these measures that almost nobody uses. It is basically our couple cycles are because bitcoin has its own cycles and it's a question, are we coupled with external cycles, right. Are we following them closely? And that is a question that need to be answered. Like for example, I looked in the past. These are cycles that many people mentioned that as a five years cycle duration and it was supposed actually to peak in November because it was not completely aligned with Bitcoin and you know, evidently is no happening. But it's possible there are other cycles that we can look at and see how they correlate with bitcoin and et cetera. Right now nothing has happened right much. So we, we need to go deeper and see if there are other cycles that the coin follows beside the four year regular cycle that we followed in the past. This is for you, Marcus.

Okay. All right, Marcus, why don't you use your X account more actively.

He's too busy. We're giving him too much work. That's why I've been telling him that.

I've been telling him that would be.

Wonderful if you update your liquidation analysis. Yes, I'm going to do it. We've been in Dubai for three weeks. I almost turned into one of those Arab sheiks. I had to had the full, you know, dress and I just Been out of touch. But yeah, now that we're back from there and I'm kind of getting back in the sink and everything. Yes, I'm definitely going to keep doing it. I'm glad you reminded me. I'll never hear the end of it because Costa's been telling me that. So. Yes, I'm. I'm with you. I'm gonna do it.

Thank you.

Definitely.

Sorry guys. We're flying him all over the world at the moment, so he's.

Yeah, yeah, but I, yeah, I gotta do it. I'm gonna update it. Yep, definitely. Thanks.

Yeah. And, and again, one more time. Yeah. The ACM has his own behavior. We will look at how strongly correlates with Bitcoin is. It's not, it's not one to one. You know, it was clear that bitcoin follows its own four year cycles and he had some level of correlation with other cycles. But it's possible that that drive is over. I don't think it was ever associated with a scarcity of coins, you know, due to the Alving. It was more like some kind of a psychological effect associated with Alvi. But then, then it's kind of dissipated. And so it's possible that Bitcoin is going to follow more traditional cycles. It's. We need the data, you know, because even if ICM does that, we don't know if Bitcoin follows. Right. We will have, we will need the evidence for that and we don't have it yet. So that is how my, my position about that is I want, I don't want to speculate, I don't want to wishful thinking. I want to see the data. Once we have the data and the data say yes, now we are locked to these new cycles, then we can use that information. But until we get other data, we should not, you know, we can look at it, but we should not assume that it goes up. Okay. Because then we do what everybody else does. It is just making up stuff, you know, instead of basing everything on data. And the entire team here, you know, it's all about being driven by data. You know, that is what we do. Okay guys, I think this made a very nice show. We were just below one hour and I think this is good. We kept it compact. Maybe one more question we can take this last question. Is it possible to adapt to calculations of a price prediction? Their probability are not symmetrical? Yeah, this is so one of a. Application of a new indicator is actually this Monte Carlo simulation I'm doing and I did it on purpose to do it symmetrical because that is kind of less biased.

But.

Yeah, but I'm going to add it as an option where we can look at the latest data and see if there is a prevalence up or down. Instead of using entire history of bitcoin, we can use the most recent mu and sigma and then it will be, you know, you will start to see that it has a tendency to go up instead of down or vice versa. It depends on the more recent history. Okay. People are coming in with more question. If it is, we can, you know, we are. We can keep it maybe within one hour. So we can keep going for another few minutes. If it doesn't happen above and doesn't. Doesn't. Don't we see deep drawdown next year? Okay, right. It's. It's kind of an assumption that makes sense. I think a lot of the drawdowns that we saw were overreaction. You know, after all, the reason why we had a power law in the first place, right. Even if we added these big bubbles is because we went up as much as we went down. And so for some reason, right. Bitcoin likes to follow the power law. So whenever it abandoned it, it needed to compensate by going down. Now if we follow the power law, maybe there is no reason to compensate. Right? So it's a. Again, we don't have data for that. We have to see it. But this one is a reasonable assumption. We can make it almost like a scientific hypothesis. This is the hypothesis. You know, we need the data to confirm the hypothesis or not. But it's a reasonable one. And to be honest, look, I will no mind for us to follow the power law closely for the next 10 years. You know, people thought that the bull runs were exciting. There were opportunities for few people because you know, they, they knew when the buran happen or maybe they had some evidence for it. Maybe they open very leverage position. Maybe they play with that. One of the things that I think a lot of people looked into was the coins, right? They were buying coins because the coins used to go faster than bitcoin during a bur. So it was a time for speculation. And maybe, you know, they, they couldn't wait till the 10 years that it takes to have a, you know, noticeable increase in your bitcoin value. And we wanted to do that 100 per in one year, you know, and so but look, it's almost like lottery because few people won. I. I made one time I made about some coin for a few thousand dollars and they make $500,000. Okay. But it's almost like I won the lottery, you know, it was nothing that I tribute to my ability or anything like that. Like one person wins and Andre lose, you know, so it was always a lottery. And so if we have something that has both the long trajectory and is predictable and then we have also oscillations around it and enough volatility, then it's great. It's perfect in particular for this particular approach that we have. It's just ideal for that. So I will not mind it at all, you know, but what do you guys think?

Yeah, look, I, I'm, I'm in agreement. I think that it's just another reason why this tool is so powerful. I think we need to start getting creative with, with what we can do with this asset and. Yeah, that's what we're doing here.

Yeah. Sebastian, do you think, what do you think about this? Will you be okay? Yeah, yeah.

I mean, you know, at the end of the day, as long as we have somewhat continued volatility, then what we do is going to churn over and over again, regardless of what the market does. But, you know, definitely it will be hard to see a huge gigantic correction without, you know, a little bit more upwards pressure. I find that hard to believe. But also, you know, sometimes bitcoin does things we don't expect. But I think the point is, what I shared earlier with, I presented that if we do have huge corrections, it doesn't really matter. You just have to understand how to manage the risk and then everything takes care of itself.

Exactly.

Yeah. I think it's far more likely that we go to, you know, 160 and back to 70, then we go from 109 to 40. I just don't, I don't see us going to 40.

Not.

It's just, that's just not really gonna happen now. If it's not gonna, if it's not gonna be. If there's not gonna be a cycle, if we're not gonna have a bubble, I, I don't think we're gonna have a massive drawdown. Could we go to, to levels that we saw earlier in the year with the tariff news? Maybe. I think that bounced off 72, but I don't think it's going back to power law support at this level because that's where we've got our eyes always, the power law support. Right. And we're protected down to those levels. But I do think it's far more likely we, we touch the power law support again in the future. And if that comes with a bubble it comes with a bubble. If it doesn't, I think we might follow what you said, Giovanni, the power law up. Yeah, we need a bit of a blow off top to get that, that crash back down, I think.

Yeah, yeah.

But the window is closing.

Yeah. Okay, guys, I think we cover a lot of interesting topics. We, we will do this again next week, 100.

Yeah, we might be. We might be in Singapore on a flight. Maybe Sebastian and yourself will be able to do it. And then we're back to.

Yeah, I'll be here.

Okay, guys, Bye, everybody. Thank you for your.