Bitcoin Live with the Power Law & Minotaur Team, #17, 7/24/2025

Hi everybody. This is Bitcoin Live. I am here with the Manotar team. I represent the power law team. So we do the usual thing that we do every Thursday. We look at the bitcoin price actions, we look at from different angles. We talk about the power law indicators. Then we go deeper in the liquidity, both the global liquidity and the local liquidity. And then finally we talk about our trading system called Minotaur. And we show the recent moves that the system has done. Anyway, so let's, let's start with the power law. Sorry for that, some technical problem. I have too many things open like always. Okay, share. All right.

All right.

You guys see the chart?

Yes.

Yep.

Okay, so, all right. This is one of my favorite charts because, you know, it does all the important information. I turn off some information like the four years moving average. But we can look at it in a moment. So like always, I kind of introduce a little bit for the people that maybe are not familiar yet with the power law. So the power law is trying to show the general trend of Bitcoin using this mathematical approach where if you plot the log of a price and the log of time. It's unusual to plot the log of time, but this is what is unique about Bitcoin. It looks like a straight line. Unfortunately, trading view doesn't allow you to do this. There is a trick that you can do, but we are not going to that trick today. But in general, if you plot, you know, if you do this with using any other plotting software, you're going to see a straight line. But straight line means we have a power law. So you can actually write an equation. And that equation usually is y equal X. In this case case X is time to some kind of a power. The power in this case is a number that is close to 6, you know, 5.8 to something like that. Now that, that equation, that simple equation, it's really amazing because through a simple equation you can express the majority of the action of bitcoin over the long term. It's really the only scientific validated model that we have. It's not, people confuse these and we think, oh, it's just another model. No, it's not just another model. It's is the only scientifically valid model we have of Bitcoin. That is also not just support by the evidence, but also some theoretical backing. Because this is what you expect. This kind of power law behavior is what you expect from a system that, you know, the underlying mechanism for the system is network neck network behavior. And we have already demonstrated this many times. If you read my articles, you, you will understand why Bitcoin is a network. Why the mathematic of network Explain the baby. So the equation that I just described is the white line that, that is very interesting because it kind of represents a fair value for Bitcoin. We also can determine a line that is about it's 40 of the value at any particular point of a middle one. And this is the gray line. We call it a support Bitcoins power loss support. As you can see, it kind of agrees with all the major bottoms that we are historically. That is pretty amazing and kind of almost scary to look at. Even during COVID that is a Covid event, we reach that bottom and we bounce back. We have another important line that is this orange line. The orange line represents the decay. So it's both, it contains both of the power law trend, but also the observe decay. So if you, if you subtract the price from the power law, you're observing what is left over right. And these are the deviation from the power law, these deviations over time. The decay in even that is actually mathematically predictable. Where you could have used the first three bubbles and predicted the fourth one within few thousand dollars. So when everybody was screaming last cycle that Bitcoin was going to under K, this model will have told us that no, we were not going to under K. We're going around 65, 70 at most. This is what this model says. Now the idea is that if it was so precise to be able to predict, you know, using the three peak first three peaks, the fourth one, can we extrapolate it to the future and make a prediction of the next peak, right? Well, yes, we can do that. But these assumes that everything that happened in the past, all the different patterns that we observe in the past are going to also apply to this particular cycle. And they look. This cycle looks different. First of all, usually when we cross the power law, we never go back. We did it very, very briefly here, but for a small amount of time. In fact, it bounced back even stronger than before. But we never had an extended period of time where, you know, see here is where we expected the bull run to start. After two years of spending, you know, we can spend two years in this region that we call the core power law and we go to the turbulent power law. This is the terminology that we use. We started well in November. I even predicted ahead of time that we're going to leave a power law. And then for some reason we had a correction. Now this Correction is linked. It's actually you could have predicted if you took seriously the relationship between global liquidity and local and Bitcoin, because there was a correction that was three months ahead that showed that, you know, we were going to have a. The correction was in global liquidity. If you took seriously that delay, that is about 85 days, you could have predicted that we were going to have a correction in the price. Unfortunately, I didn't take seriously that correlation until recently. I think it's a valid one. I demonstrated through many tests that it's a real one. But it is surprising because this never happened before in the previous cycles. Now then we recover from this bottom and it seemed that we were going back to the path that is kind of described here. This blue curve is supposed to represent the cyclic nature of a, of a cycles and also indicate kind of, you know, that we have a top and the bottom. It's, you know, it's a bookmark more than a precise trajectory for the price. But, you know, just to give you an idea, we should be much higher. We should be kind of here like in before 140 range, right now, if we were following the normal cycle as before, because the predicted top is about 200k, so we are much lower than what to expect. What we, what we should have expected if we follow a normal cycle by saying that we recover. But then again, we started to follow too long too much the power law. That is the problem. The power law model is not broken at all. It's becoming stronger and stronger as time passes by. The main question is, are we going to leave a power law and go to these higher peaks and then have a strong correction? Right now it looks like the bitcoin has a problem leaving the power law. It loves the power law too much and it stays, you know, it deviates a little bit, but it doesn't like to go too far away from it. So it's something that we are monitoring very clear, very, you know, very closely because it's something that needs to be understood, right? Is this what is going to happen for the future, that we are simply oscillating around the power law? The power law, it's the backbone of this model, right? And it's becoming stronger, not weaker. The question is, are we seeing these challenges to the power law that are basically the bubbles, right? Are we going to see them again? We don't know. We need more data to understand this. Now the global liquidity have charts. They show the global liquidity. It's actually supporting the idea that we are going to continue to go up. I would love to switch. I can show you. I will let Marcus first describe a local liquidity. And we can go back to the global liquidity later. But it's basically going up, right? So there is this delay between the global liquidity and the local liquidity. There is about. It's 85 days where liquidity continues to go up. There is no sign that there is a major correction there. So that means that probably it's not one to one, right? The relationship is not as strong as the power law, for example, but it means that at least one of. While we are one of the necessary condition for the price to continue to go up a bit, there is a lot of liquidity. So we're going to see that if, you know, this is the case for the next several months, at least two, three months ahead of us anyway, this is what I have to report about what is going on with the power law long term trajectory. Basically we are, you know, we are continuing to follow it maybe too closely. Okay, guys, do you have any comment on these or do you want to add anything else?

I, I think it's still, you know, if we get there in the next sort of three to six weeks, that 140, 160 in retrospect, it's all going to look like it all happened according to plan. So I'm still pretty confident in. But I'm confident because of the, the liquidity that we're seeing, which Marcus is going to show us in a second, I think that 140 to 160 is going to happen very, very soon.

Okay, Marcus, do you want to go ahead and show us your.

Okay. You hear me?

Okay.

Yeah.

All right, I'm back. You, you, you un. You uncensored me. Okay. No, no sunflowers. All right, here we go. What we're looking at here is the latest developments on the price action. First, I always like to start by iterating that liquidity and price are one of the same. You know, you, you, you have price action that creates liquidity and liquidity attracts price which creates the action. So they're one in the same. So currently what we are looking at here is we have been for the last 10 days we have been consolidating right here. We're in a consolidation pattern. Some people might call that a bullish lag. But what it really is, after a big. We had liquidity here like this after a big liquidation event, then the market makers are the people that have the power to influence the market. They have to balance their positions. And that's what they're doing. They're balancing their positions and at the same time creating new localized liquidity. Game continues. So let's take a look at the bitcoin by bit futures. We use that, we use the derivatives because that is where the leverage is at and that's where price is discovered first. So, voila, let's add in liquidity. We do have some very good events here. And the first thing I always like to tell everyone is during these times of boring consolidation, you typically get bored. But that is the time to make your positions. Because what are the market makers or the institutions doing? They are rebalancing and they are loading up position. That's what they're doing. They're offsetting. You had a huge move here. You have to re shuffle that. You have to offset some of that before you move higher. So this is the time to build your positions. Just like they do. They build their positions, then they move the price, bill the positions, move the price. So now is the time for you to build positions. Lot of times what retailers do is they like to get bored here. They don't do anything. And then when the market starts moving, then they want to participate. That is not the time to participate. The time to participate is when the market is consolidating, Build your positions and then cash out on the moves. So, okay, really quick, let's look at a couple of things here. This was level one. We were in a, a, we had this massive liquidity pool here, short pool. The composition is 3x5x10x25x and 50 and 100. So right here, this is what we call level. This is level, level one. This is level two. This is level three. So what does that mean? What that means is we, we classify the levels based on, based on where they are created. So right here, level 1, 10x25x, level 2 5x and a little bit of 25. Level 3 is 3x, level 1, 2, 3. So you can see right here where they were created initially and then they get blended into one massive pool. So when we come over here to the end of the pool, we can see that we have already cleared level one, which is 10x25x. We have level two waiting, which will be the 5x that'll conclude the fives. And then the level three is up here, which is 3x. So we're getting ready, this consolidation is getting ready to take level two. So pack your bags, get ready to move. We're going on a little trip. One Thing that has happened here that's very interesting is liquidity is an ever growing process. You know, a lot of retailers, they like to bet right when this price is chopping, it's creating new liquidity. And there you got people betting long, people betting short, and they're just creating these pools. So I'm going to show you that in a minute. But what I want to show you right here while we have all the liquidity in one picture is we are getting some new developments, right? So last week we were at about the 140 range where we've already grown to about 143, 144. So we're growing, we're growing. So that's going to be a magnet for price. And here's the most interesting one of all. It kind of gets us back into the power law. We have a tiny little island of liquidity being deformed up here of 3x. And this is interesting because this liquidity is at 153, 153. And why is that important? Because that gets, that's called mid, we call that mid range. Mid range is right here. This is that type of liquidity right here that gets in the middle of the range before we get established. So that's our mid range. We're already starting to get it now. So the price will liquidate everything, run higher, take out that mid range and then settle into a new zone, new range. So that's very promising that we're seeing that participation already. And believe it or not, this consolidation right here is bringing that in, that's building that up there. So we already have a tiny little, little composition of 3x already building for the mid range. So when we take this out, eventually we'll take out the mid range pool and then we'll get to the top for the inclusion of the range. So that's, that's promising. And we're on schedule. That's very, very promising. One other thing, I want to show you how the liquidity is being built now. Currently, as you can see right here, as I begin to back out to the more current liquidity, we can see just what I was telling you, that the market makers, they check the price and you, you start creating liquidity on both sides and that's what they're doing. And then when we take this longs out, this, this pool will remain. This one's already here. So you got three levels already. The market loves to move in these threes. So we're going to kill this one, mitigate that One and then we'll come back and take these down later, much later, after the run is over.

You think that first one is going to hold and it's not going to get taken out. This one, what's that, 112?

Yeah, yeah, this is like 112 at the bottom. You know, when they typically they need, you know, you have, you have pool one, pool two, pool three. It is more probable than not that that this pool will remain untouched like this one was. So we'll have some type of untouched event because you'll get that third level because the way the market, markets are very efficient. So they need return liquidity. It's kind of like you need your return flight, right? You go, you go on a trip, you need a, you need a return flight to come home. So it's going to need this liquidity to come back down. So it typically won't take it. If they do take it, then it'll, it'll do that, you know, more than likely.

So, so, so what I'm seeing evidence here of is building for a return to below 100k, which is power law support.

You could come back here.

Yeah.

Somewhere in here, right? Yeah, yeah.

So we're seeing the, the magnets that are being created that will draw the price back down to power law support. That's interesting. Is it Giovani like to think that it might take a year to get to top of the bull to come back down. But, but the, the infrastructure for that pullback is we're seeing it being created right now. What do you have to say on that, Giovanni?

Yeah, I mean we need a much more aggressive behavior. Right. To go all the way to 200k. Yeah.

This is a very healthy sign though. This is another clue that's going to get us here. So now we already have this middle mid range liquidity coming in here at 150, 53. That's getting us a lot closer to 200 right there than we were. We were last week we only had confirmations at about 140. So now we already getting confirmation at 153. That's a really bullet. That's a real bullish sign. So, you know, you add another 10 on top of that, you know, and now you're getting there.

But what is the leverage you are looking at right now?

That's 3x right there. Coming in 3x.

Okay.

This action right here is creating that up there. 3x is a long ways away.

Yeah, yeah.

The market is a, it's a bunch of computer programs and they know what action needs to be made to create the liquidity that they're going to need later. It's just amazing how the system works. But fundamentally from a big picture perspective, it's pretty simple what's actually happening. It's not complicated. The concept, the execution is incredibly complex, but just high level is, is very basic.

And you know, I remember there is this overall theory of a log periodic power law from CERNET which says basically, as we come closer to some kind of a critical event, if we do have a bubble, these oscillations are going to be faster and faster. So it's not going to take like, you know, see, for example, have you.

Got that, have you got those oscillations for the bitcoin chart yet?

Have you?

Yeah, I need to calculate them. Stephen has done some work like every. We didn't have an episode last time, but every week we show the update and it's a pretty cool chart. I need to bring it up next time that we have a. Because we can compare it with this. It will be really cool. But basically it looks like this. It looks like you're going to see these flat periods and then these are time when we go up and then some oscillations and then up. And so it looks exactly like this. And he's projecting it to the future, you know.

And we noticed another, to add to what you're saying, we noticed another type of price action. The net result is still the same. We're going to displace this. But the price action has changed since the ETFs have come in. Institutions are moving more methodically. If you look at the last time when we displaced, right, we, we checked up a little bit, but then we displaced hard and fast. Now, since the ETFs are coming on the scene, we've been doing this kind of like we'll, we'll displace a little bit. We'll consolidate, displace, consolidate, displace. Consolidate, displace. Consolidate, displace, Consolidate, displace. I actually love this action. I like this better because this type of action here gives you time to build your positions like they build their positions.

It's much healthier, isn't it?

Structure. Yeah. I want to make sure the audience understands the power of this. So many retail traders, they get bored here and, oh, it's not doing anything. And they only want to move during the displacement. That's when you make your money. So right here, get your positions ready. You already have your targets. Level two, level three. Those targets are like highly probable. Build your position, buy your cars, pay off your houses. Do whatever you got to do with that move. It's just right. Yeah. Build your positions like they do.

I was saying this in the community call we had yesterday, that those, those consolidation periods is where everyone loses. Because basically those consolidation periods is Bitcoin creating an opportunity for you to make money. But what people do is they try to create the opportunity inside that and they fail.

Right.

Because they're trying to go long and short when price is moving sideways, when that's actually the most exciting thing. It's building towards a move.

So it's very.

So we have a question. We can answer this question now. Can, can we look at the volumes? Sometimes you project the volume on these charts because there is a designer.

If you see up here, there's going to be. As I hover over, you can see the magnitude of it. That's 28, 000. You know, that's, that's getting a.

That's gigantic.

It's gigantic. Yeah, it's a big number.

Well, how it compares with the, the one we had before, the one. There are other red.

They're, they're very similar in. They're very similar in amounts. Yeah, it's the same type of volume. Yeah, similar.

Yeah, it's very similar.

Yeah, it's very similar. A little bit bigger now than it was here. But to add to what you were saying also, Sebastian, when we have this type of price action, where are you going to get a position? Where are you going to get on at? You know, it's moving so fast. You can't, you just have to chase it. And that's not a good strategy, chasing the price. So it's actually hard to get on this action.

Probably the reason it pulled back so aggressively as well. Because the move was so fast.

Yes.

Yeah.

But this, this type of price action here is just so forgiving, so easy to just trade this, to invest in that. That's easy to do. So I think that's my, my, my hypothesis is that there's the ETFs, because they're institutions. They're probably, you know, contributing to that type of price action because it suits, it suits their type of business model. This over here, this one was more retail impulsive, fomo, all that. Not saying we don't have that same type of volume, but the, the institutions just smooth it out. They're so big. They just. It's kind of like an elephant in the pool. It just kind of balances all of the action. Yeah, they just, they weigh it down, keep it nice and uniform, which is great. I love it. I hope it keeps doing that. Yep.

Yeah. You know, people, people make these claims, right? Sometimes. And there are a couple check. Matthews is a pretty good analyst. But you know, I want always to double check stuff because I sometimes listen to these analysts and they make claims and then you go and double check what they are saying because people take it for granted.

Right.

And then it's not correct. You know, this is why we always stick to data and we do these on a regular basis. You know, so we have a up to date information. You know, so you confirm that there is a. There is a lot of volume in this movie.

Yeah. Oh, there's, there's, yeah, there's the, the composition is very dense there. 180 something thousand to 100. And then, you know, looking at the lighter areas, you could say it's a lot. Much less. Yep.

Yeah, it would be like very. And it's not impossible, but it would not be characteristic to start taking some of the pool and then reverse. They're going to take all of it. That's typically how it plays. If they get a little bit of. They're coming for all of it. And there is such a pool above there that I think people get confused because they see the market moving sideways like it is now and they go, oh, there's not enough volume for it to go up.

Yes, there is actually.

When the mark. Yeah, when the market's doing this, it's preparing for its next move. If you actually look back on everything Marcus just showed you, the pattern is playing out over and over again. This is not happening at random now. When a move happens, it can't just continue. So the reason it starts moving sideways as Marcus said, is bets start getting placed on either side of the book, which creates liquidity and then that's the fuel that it gets taken with. It's a repeatable pattern that's visible 25x.

You can see it, this bottom pool there that you just circled. What it's doing is it kind of anchors the price and stops it from, from popping again. And that's what the market makers are going to hunt.

Right.

They're hunting those 2550, 100 expositions. Because if, if we just kept going all the way up, pretty much everyone that did a 25x100x long, they're all in massive profit.

Right.

It was just be, it would just be the easiest thing to do to create a 100x leverage position and just ride it up. If it's not predictable.

100X got liquidated in there, there and there. They're close now.

What's going here? The 25X gonna get liquidated.

They're not gonna. And then look how, look how, look how the harvesting process works. It checks up and that starts the brand new baby pool right here starts. And then over time the composition gets thicker and thicker until it gets the right volume that they need to get their books correct.

And it's a trap. Right. Because everyone's seen that big palm and then they're entering those long positions and it's waiting in that range to see where it's going to attack. People are entering these positions. Positions, building up, building up tension. And then it's got a whipsaw.

Yeah, they're. They're there people. Right in this middle here. There's a. There's a high volume. No right in there. And there's half the people. Or you can look at this almost balance. Half the people believe it's going to go down and have to believe it's going to go up. And all they're doing is their stop losses, liquidation levels. Everything is in this pool right here. And when it gets to a certain point, like you can see right here, once it gets dense enough to give them the right volume because that those are trap buyers. They're already gonna buy and we already know what price they're gonna buy at. So when the market makers get enough inventory, they're gonna sell it right into that. They're gonna sell it right into those buyers. These guys are buying high, selling low. Selling, selling low, buying high. Which is the opposite of what you should do. Right.

It's extremely powerful because there's lie. You're looking at live data of the order book. You're not looking at a resistance level and a candlestick breaking above and going oh, we're breaking out because we've broken some, you know, hor on a chart. This is actual data from the order book. So it's incredibly valuable, incredibly powerful.

Yep.

And this is what happens many times. Right. People look like Sebastian was saying, so maybe these were checkmate because like I say respecting. But maybe he's looking at the transaction current transaction volume. You need to look at the entire book and you need to see.

Yeah.

What. What all the orders that are sitting there, you know, that is also volume, you know, because. Yes, it's absolutely. This is why we have these sudden moves because they are there doing nothing and then all of a sudden let us move in one of the directions. Right. Going up and, and when you have.

A sudden move, you're just getting. It's just a liquidation event. That's all it is. Exactly.

Yeah. And you can back test it, go back and look at any big move that's happened. It's happened after consolidation periods. Pretty much on the money. So it's something that it does repeat.

Yeah, yeah.

I mean, these. These are displacement candles. That's why you have that big candle to displace all that liquidity that's been being harvested. Displacement candles.

Yeah.

This is.

This is a liquidity chart. BK Entertainment. It's a. The. So the colors represents the volume.

There's a filter. Filter here that we're using.

And then Marcos can select different leverages. Right. Usually the biggest leverages are 10 and 25.

5.

Yeah.

3. Everything. Everything that we can track here is here.

So Three. You know, when the leverage is small. If I understand. Correct me if I say something wrong, you're going to see much dispersion.

Right.

See how we can go all the way to 150. Nobody's going to put that under a pair there because we are going to get liquidated immediately. Right?

Yeah. The hundred, the hundred, the hundreds are right here.

150.

25. 10.

Yeah.

5 and 3. Yeah. Like that. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.

So that is very interesting because it gives you like, almost like a 3D. Maybe not. Not even 3D. 4D vision. 4D vision of what is going on. You know, much deeper understanding.

I'm gonna stop.

This is why, you know, and you know, like, for example, this comment. Right. Oh, head and shoulders. I. I studied these patterns. I don't believe in them. I don't think they are real. You know, maybe the only reality of it is that people. It's kind of a helpful. I have feeling.

I have a. A way I look at patterns. Patterns are like dinosaur fossils. It's proof that something was there. Yeah. You know, it's not like a. Something made up. So when you're looking at patterns, it's just proof that something is measuring something that is happening. The patterning is not causing anything. The pattern is just proof that it exists in the first place. That's all it is. You can call it a pattern, whatever. It's just proving the action that's taking place. There's a. There's a reason for the action, and the pattern is just a proof that it happened. Moving averages just measure the strength of markets. Oscillators measure strength, momentum. But there's a reason that those are indicators always indicate what has happened. Yeah. And it's evidence of what happened. Yeah, you know, that's all it is. It's not. It doesn't create anything. It's just the evidence of what happened already.

And this is why we focus on things that are more scientific.

Right.

Like the power law.

Yeah. Business models. Yeah, of course.

About the holiday. Yeah, I, I kind of agree. I think once we are coming closer to winter, you know, when it's autumn. Winter.

Yeah.

There be some big movement in either direction, probably up. But I think, you know, during that this time it's actually surprising because there are often in summer there is a retracement of the price and we are pretty stable instead. So it's actually a good sign. But yeah, I agree. So something will happen.

All right, so I guess we'll get Sebastian going here.

All right, this is very good. Let's.

Thanks, Marcus.

Yes, sir.

All right, I'll share my screen. Just let me know once you can see it.

Okay, so we are discussing now this algorithm because a lot of this activity that you see, guys, in fact, Marcus always comments on this.

Right.

It's mostly bought. And so we are actually developing a bot that it is not going against the market is actually trying to follow what all these other bots are doing and actually, you know, going with the flow basically and, and capturing some of that volatility. Right. And so it's a tool of it. I really believe strongly and I recommend, recommend to people. I did in fact, maybe later I show you this graph where we can calculate what Bitcoin is going to do in the future. Very be diminished. It's still going to be amazing, right. In the next 15 years. We are talking about 12 years are talking about 15 pair, right. For Bitcoin. But you know, if you have a tool like this, you can literally multiply your Bitcoin by five times or six times in the same period. So this YMC so much is becoming kind of like a battle cry for me, you know, to tell people that they need to be more active with their Bitcoin. You know, they need to be a little bit more involved and aware of what is going on and use some of these tools, you know, you can do options and other things. But anyway, I will let Sebastian to talk about the algorithm. Go ahead.

Thanks, Giovanni. Is my screen loaded?

Yes.

Fantastic. All right, so hello everyone. And I'm going to be showing you our algorithm today for anyone that's new to the show. This is an algorithm specifically designed to trade Bitcoin, specifically built with the power law in mind, especially around how we manage risk, we always use the power law support as the emphasis point of all the risk management that we use. Now the tool is very robust, so it can be used in a number of ways. What I mean by this, there's multiple ways to trade Bitcoin using this. The first thing you can do, if you're someone who is a futures trader or day trader looking to trade Bitcoin perpetual futures contracts, you can simply use this tool to trade Bitcoin against USDT and make USDT profits. You can also use this tool as a way to collateralize your Bitcoin and then allow you to also trade using your Bitcoin as collateral to receive USDT profits or Bitcoin profits also. So that's a very interesting feature that it has. The reason that's interesting and powerful is a lot of people are sitting huddling their Bitcoin, not using it in any meaningful way, which will still, as we all know, get you a good result. I say this every week when I'm on this show. We're all Bitcoin huddlers, right? We all buy Bitcoin and we hold it. But there's something very powerful about being able to leverage that Bitcoin and then gain additional yield on it. And this is why when you are spot holding Bitcoin, essentially for you to be gaining profit, you are relying on Bitcoin to constantly break new all time highs. So when it makes these all time highs, amazing, you're in profit, you're making money. But as we know, Bitcoin doesn't continuously go up forever. There's long periods of downwards price action and periods where the market is moving sideways, where your Bitcoin is basically sitting there idle. Now, what the algorithm does is it will trade Bitcoin's price action and it will allow you to gain yield on top of your Bitcoin. And it does this in a very safe and intelligent way. Now, the algorithm is essentially a Swiss army knife that can be configured in any way, shape or form. What I mean by this is if you're someone who's very conservative, we have the ability to protect capital and trade Bitcoin all the way down to the power law support and even further. What I mean by this is the algorithm can handle 65 to 75% drops in price, keep your capital safe and still have you profiting the whole time. If you're someone who's a little bit more aggressive, you can configure it so that your levels are higher. And this is one of the most important Things about the algorithm is that you're not being put in a box and told, you know, this is how you run it. It's, it's a tool that can allow you to run, really run it how you want to and with your own kind of risk profiles in mind, which is very, very unique. Now, how the algorithm actually trades, we use a number of different things inside the algorithm for entry and exit logic. The forefront of the logic is all based on trend following moving up and dollar cost averaging moving down. It goes much more complex than that in terms of how it actually generates a signal. But if we come back here, I can give you an idea of how it trades. Price action. Now all the lines on my screen, this is basically a free open interest indicator on Trading View, which tracks liquidity, similar to what Marcus was showing, but it does not have the level of depth that the trading different one has. And we're also on a 15 minute time frame. So this is going to kind of show us where liquidity is building on a 15 minute time frame. And as you can see, we've got liquidity on either side. But it's good to watch how the algorithm actually performs in this liquidity. So if we start from here on the left hand side, Bitcoin topped out at 123k and then we had a pretty decent sized sell off, roughly, let's say 6%. Now the first thing you'll notice is that our algorithm is not trading this selling pressure. Now the reason the algorithm is not trading this selling pressure is it's not just a dollar cost averaging Martingale bot that you go and get on one of the exchanges, right? It has internal logic built into it so that it understands if the market is showing heavy selling pressure, it's actually advantageous to wait to make entries. Similarly to if the market is showing heavy buying pressure. The algorithm has the intelligence to actually get in and out of the market faster, right? So it's unique and it's very, very good at making entries and exits. That's probably the biggest alpha this algorithm has and any of our customers that use this will attest to that. Now, as you can see, the market has a big sell off. We make our first buy here. The market continues to fall. Now that's not a problem for us because we have been very efficient with how we disperse capital. We are not putting our whole account on the order book and hoping that Bitcoin increases in price. Because what happens when you do that? If price goes up, sure, you'll make some money, but if price moves against you, you're going to get liquidated very, very quickly. So when price moves against us, that's actually something we're excited about. Because the algorithm is so good at picking up entries, it's going to lower our average price and it's going to give us the ability to exit Bitcoin eventually on a sub rally, which is what we do. As you can see here, we make one more entry and if you look at where this long was placed, it's at the very bottom of the price action. This is not, you know, a fluke. This is by design, it's very, very good at picking up bottoms. As we can see, price action increases and we close. Now, an example of the algorithm trading up. We take a long position here. Price moves against us, we wait. Price comes back up, we close, right? So the algorithm has the ability to trade up, spray down, and trade sideways. But it's not perfect. Everything has push and pull, right? Everything has give and take. And what we mean by this is those periods of consolidation that Marcus was just showing on the liquidity heat map. There's going to be times as well where the algorithm is sitting and holding positions. But this is actually something that's very, very powerful because what people need to realize is when Bitcoin is moving sideways, not doing anything, this is where people lose most of the money because they are trying to create opportunities while this is happening. And the problem is there's no actual direction. And this is actually how the book is filled. The book is filled with people placing orders on either side of the market trying to make money. But the reality is they're playing a game they can't win. Now, the algorithm during this time sometimes can be slow because what it's doing is it's holding onto positions. But there's a very important thing here you need to understand. It has no emotion. It doesn't need to sleep. It's not sitting there watching the market, getting scared. It's executing based off a set of rules and it's doing it over and over and over again. And unfortunately, this is something we can't do. And this isn't a knock on humans or the human race, but we can't be in front of a computer screen with no emotion, executing consistently 24,7. This is another key reason as to why this works. It does not have the emotion playing in. And when we close positions, we wait, we enter when the time is right, and we close them when the time is right. And it's. It's actually very simple. But it executes very, very well and that's the key. So as you can see, we've had sideways price action here. Most people are sitting, hodling their bitcoin, going on board. This is boring. But for us this isn't boring because we're actually trading this whole time using our Bitcoin as collateral. Or if you're using USDT as well, right? This is giving you the ability to get optimum entries and exits and have consistency in the market, which is very rare. Now the last thing I want to show before I pass off to Costa, just want to show everyone what it looks like when the market is having a decent down turn so you can see how the algorithm actually works. So as we can see here, we took a long position, we exited and then the market starts moving down. Now as we can see, we do start to pick up positions, right? We make our first position here, we make our second position here, we make our third position here. This is a very important thing to understand because we can actually buy high, right? We can actually buy high and have the market move against us and still turn a profit. This is a very, very unique thing to do, right, because we made our first buy at 107k, right? Market moved against us, we picked up more orders, but then we actually sold at 107k. Right? So this allowed the algorithm to DCA down, pick up positions and then exit on the sub rally. So just, just, yeah, you got Marcus.

Just to add to that. It's a trend following algorithm. So it has to do that first order by its programming to try to find a new trend. That's why it takes that high order because it's looking for a new trend. It no one on earth can, can know whether it's going to be a new trend or not. And when it doesn't turn into a new trend, it uses the DCA to.

Exactly secondary which you know, it allows, it actually allows this first order to be completely wrong, which is going to happen sometimes, right? There's no system out there that gets the perfect order every time. If there was right, you wouldn't have to ever do anything again. You turn it on and that's it. But even when the first order is wrong, that doesn't really matter because if the market moves against us, we'll make more money that way than we will with the, with the market going up. And, and to me that's the biggest value in this system. It's not, it is its consistency, but it's, it's its ability to make money and protect your capital when the market is falling. That's the biggest edge. Right. Even, that's what we actually want.

Even the best trend following systems on the planet, trend following systems are about 60% win rate, 40%. So it, it, it's doing. No, there's no high win rate trend following system in anywhere. So it's doing a great job of that.

Exactly, exactly. And it gives you the ability to go up, down and sideways and you can sleep at night. Right. Which is probably the most important thing. So, you know, for anyone that's interested in this, you know, of course you can book a call with our team. We can go further and we can go into much more details also. But I'll pass off on to Costa now and he can go next. But yeah, this is essentially what we do in a nutshell. It's important to understand as well. On a final note, you know, you do not need to be an experienced crypto trader to use this tool. Right. We will give you the consultation, we'll help you and we'll teach you to set these tools up as well and teach you everything you need to run this system successfully.

Thanks, Seb.

No worries.

Let me see if you can see my. Let me know if you can see my screen. Yeah, we're seeing. Yes. Okay, fantastic. Great. So I basically got two charts that I'm running at the moment. These are the ones that I set up with this live stream when we started doing it around December from last year. So let's just take a look at the performance of this. So we have a look here, overview. And it's around a 35% gain. And you can see a bit of the data here. What's particularly good is when you see a line that goes relatively up from, you know, left to right with relatively small drawdowns. This is what you want to see. So 35% return from December to July. So one of the things I wanted to discuss is there are two ways to do this. You can do what a lot of people are doing. What Sebastian said before, I know what Giovanni is doing all the time is using your Bitcoin as collateral, running the Algos on it in a very safe and strategic way to then basically realize some trading gains in USDT and buy more Bitcoin. Another thing that I like to do is I actually like to set, put a certain amount of money aside and use it to actually realize profits weekly or monthly. And then I can actually use those profits to cover some bills or pay the school fees or whatever I need. So I Reverse engineer and I go, you know, if I need $1,000 worth of groceries every single month, well, why not set up a bot that will deliver that thousand dollars and all I have to do then is reverse engineer a pretty predictable rate of return and then set aside that 20 or $30,000 on a bot that I will need to be able to extract that thousand dollars a month and I simply just use usdt, trade bitcoin with it and then extract the profits every month. So, you know, you can create a way to generate yourself cash flow to use in the real world or you can go the, let's call it the double. What would you call it, Giovanni? Double maxi or triple maxi. When you're using the bitcoin as collateral to just buy more bitcoin, that's the double maxi. The triple maxi is when you use an inverse contract to then realize the gains in btc, which Sebastian can show you how to do. I would call that the triple maxi. What do you think?

Yeah, it's a triple. Triple. Three. Three. Three. That's a triple. Yeah.

Well, it's essentially mining bitcoin with an algorithm. Right? It's a very unique approach, correct?

Yeah. A lot of miners actually interested in what we're doing because what we're doing is we're mining bitcoin with software without any of the overheads and depreciation that comes with the mining. But anyway, let's just take a look at some of the data. So this is really interesting. Now we don't always outperform the buy and hold because. Because if bitcoin does a massive rally, you're not going to be able to keep up with it because we're constantly closing deals, resetting, taking profits, closing deals. But as you can see the way the price has been going since December 1st, we've outperformed the buy and hold by around 14% in less than six months. The market's hardly crashing and we're outperforming it, which is fantastic. The market's up 20%, the algorithm's up 35%. That just gives you an idea of, of what we're doing here and what the performance looks like. As you can see, it looks pretty similar to the equity charts that Giovanni posts regularly on his X. So this matches up with that completely. And then you guys want to say on that?

Yeah, I just want to add that basically the comparison is infinity because anything it does generate is in addition to that, bitcoin is collecting dust in your wallet anyway, you know, so yeah, I.

Like, I like if you can show again the position. I like how he took advantage of that move, you know, down. It's basically. See this is where the intelligence of the algo comes from. You know, it finds all these local media, you know, that is, it's not randomly buying. There is a correction.

Yeah, I wanted to, I wanted to highlight a point. It's, it's liquidity in, liquidity out. It's using the same patterns or the same process that the market makers are doing. Those positions that is taking on the down move. That's like, that's liquidations in the market. So it's taking positions. When those sellers are forced to sell, we're buying. So the algorithm is buying just like the market makers off of a liquidation event and then it takes profit off of, off of a liquidation event to the upside. So it's liquidity in, liquidity out. It's doing the same thing. Yep.

Correct. And now, now we usually run our clients when they sign up with us, two settings. So this is pretty much the, the, the, the larger TP settings. As you can see here, the gap's quite wide, but some people want a little bit more action. So we also have one that's on a bit of tighter spread. Now when you, when you compare them, you can see how this has much more activity. So this chop here, because we've got a tight tighter take profit, it's actually able to take advantage of that volatility in these kind of whips or swings. So you can see how it's entering the trade and basically just taking profit right away and then resetting, entering the trade, taking profit. And you can see that's been doing that consistently since the 14th of July. We've closed, you know, we'll say 1, 2, 3. So like Sebastian said before, for a period of time that's quite boring for most people, we're able to, you know, really use even this really relatively small amount of volatility. Like what's the range this? Around 3%, you know, 3% volatility over a 15 day sort of price period. It's fantastic to close that many deals. So we're always busy to come back to one of the, I think, you know, one of the questions that someone just posted was over analysis paralysis. You know, the macro stuff that we're doing is just to give us a roadmap.

Right.

At the end of the day we're just letting the algorithm do its thing and if the price continues to go up to, you know, bull run, top of the bull run, peak predictions that's fantastic. But if it decides to, to stay where it is, as you can see from this, we're still going to be printing and if the market crashes, we can go back to the other algorithm here. We're going to be able to capitalize on those larger swing downs just like we did right here. All right. To be honest, you know, we should hope that it actually crashes before it goes up again because these positions do, do give us a lot more money. So whichever way that we're doing it, you know, things are looking good. Future is very bright. So if anyone wants to add this tool to their toolkit, just book a call. We do free consultations and the website link is at the bottom of the screen right here.

So, and to go back to this, so I wanted to show you, right, because, and this is one of the things that I'm trying to emphasize more and more, like I was saying before, that really, I know, and I know some, some people are going to resist this because we are basically told all.

The time.

Yes, you should order the majority of your bitcoin, but find a way. And it doesn't have to be this system, right? You, I, I see a lot of people that are very successful doing cover calls, for example. So find a way of getting some yield on your Bitcoin. And our days, we have so many tools. We have a, you know, all these derivatives, you have all these treasury companies, you know, so you can buy some of these stocks. There are some company like MSTY that is trying to do that for you. I would rather learn how to do it yourself, you know, but if you want to rely on a system like ours that is much more automated, it doesn't require you to learn basically almost anything. You know, you should still be aware, you should still look at the charts, you know, trying to understand what is going on, being an active participant. But so this graph, I don't know if you can really see it, but let me see if I can make it a little bit bigger. But it's really a powerful graph. So what I'm trying to show here. So. Well, first of all, these are a interesting graph about. Let's go back. I zoom in. So this first graph here is showing what to expect from Bitcoin, right? And, and in terms of percentage per year, so I show almost the entire history Bitcoin starting from year number two, I think. And you can see the cagr, right? So the, basically the annual returns that you get are going to be variable because in the past we had these huge big bubbles, right? There were times where in one year you could have done a thousand percent, right? It is crazy. And there are oscillation, right, due to the bubble. You see these oscillations are becoming smaller. The bottoms are actually much more consistent then the bubbles. The bubbles are decaying. This is along the same idea of having basically a reliable support. This is how this is our, you know, a confirmation that there is some kind of a bottom there, that it never doesn't change. But you can see that annual returns are going down, right? And the blue line is the power law. So the power law you can calculate what is the theoretical return given by the public law. You can see it does represent in a almost uncanny way a good average, right? It represents a trend, the average trend for this yearly return. So it's not just a line with fit for price, it's also the returns. It is pretty remarkable. Then of course you can combine this gain over time and this is what you get. These are the gain that you could have got. If you start a few years ago you could have made basically a million times a million pair. These times are gone though, right? We are not going to see any more this type of returns. Let me see if I can scroll down here. In fact, I project what these returns are going to be from the next few years. So here is a blue line. The blue line tell us that right now, this year, right, if we don't have a bubble, etc, we are projected around 42%. And as you go down in the next year now, it's going to be better than almost any type of returns that you can imagine. You know, any type of other asset like gold. And the stock market is going to be mostly in. In particular, if you're thinking these are long term returns, right? It's not just Nvidia maybe can have a good year and be more than 20% but very unlikely. Any stock can do 20, 30% over many many years. And Bitcoin is going to have higher returns from that. And then kind of by year 12 is going to be around 22%, right? Still pretty, pretty good. Now what happens? And these are the total returns, right? We are expecting more than 20 pair in about 12 years from now. So what happened if you add any type of yield? So I if to be really conservative because I like to do these things in a conservative fashion. So I don't get disappointed then anything else on top of that is good. So even if you do a small yield and Costa just showed you, right, the this trading system can do much better than that, but let's say 1.5% among. Add 1.5% a month and compound it over a year. What you get, you start to get returns that are very similar to what we got in the past, right? So we will have to go back in the past several years to get a 60% return. This is what you're getting if you're using a system like this. And, and now you know you're going down and in 12 years from now, you're going to be, you're going to have returns that are higher than what we get right now. Okay, so you're basically are denying these diminishing returns that most people are going to experience. What that means in terms of compounded gains? Well, instead of having a 20 that is amazing, what about 120, right? It's crazy. It's so, and this is with a small little yield per month. So if you want to get basically back, go back in time and experience some of the returns that bitcoin was experiencing several years ago, you want to do a little bit of something different, right? Like using a system like this and this again here. This graph shows what you will get. You know, I like CASA likes the cash return. You can do one, the other or both, right? You can do a little bit of your, of your investment based on just a compounding US Dollars. You can use it, you can use one as a collateral. So if you use bitcoin as a collateral purely, you will see your bitcoin growing. And according to this calculation, in about 12 years from now, you will have at least five times more. Because it is amazing, right?

Because most people and, and, and if they use your indicators and can pick the top, the top and the bottom. Yeah, well, it's much better than that.

We are doing something as conservative as possible, right? We are simply falling before long, don't have bubbles anymore, but you got, you get a very small little compounded yield every single month. And we call it. Some people say, some people complained. You know, when you actually give them a system that does more than that, we still complain. And other people think actually that is impossible to do a 1.5. That is a really amazing type of returns. It's doable. It's doable. People are doing it using options. We are doing it. It's very within the reach of our system to do something like that. And people forget what that means, right? Because as you accumulate this bitcoin, you can increase your position, you can update the both parameters and continue to compound over the years, right? So if you are if you have a horizon of about 10, 12 years that, you know, even for somebody older like me, it's a quite close horizon. For a young person with nothing, you know, it's going to pass like this, like an instant. You're talking about, you know, multiplying your Bitcoin by 5. It is crazy. Most people cannot do. And you can continue to do your dca, you can continue to buy bitcoin on a regular basis, you know, but now you have something that in addition to Europe DCA through Cash does his own DCA he's using. It's like you know, self reference loop, you know. So yeah, this is why I see so much. And anybody that tells you oh, you can retire with 0.1 bitcoin, they are telling you a lie. You should not listen to them, you know, because it's not a realistic goal. It's. They want your likes, they are not caring about you being successful, you know. But this graph is a very, very powerful graph.

Yeah, I like it so much giovanni, because it's 1.5amonth and look at the curve, right? And, and hey, we can set you up there Algo to do 1.5% a month, no worries. And the risk ongoing for returns like that is going to be seriously minimal as well. Right. So for people who are risk adverse, if you like the look of this chart, 1.5% is attainable with you know, I don't want to say no risk but it's, it's very small so it's very powerful.

Yeah. And this is why, you know, you should understand that we are serious people because we're talking about things that are achievable and real. And you know, we are not here to tell you hey, you know, you're going, this is a get rich scheme to be a billionaire, you know, in few years from now. You know, all that stuff is ridiculous. But you know, this is something like, this is something that you can sit down, you know, make your own calculation, understand what the risk are involved and it's something that you can achieve. Right. It will require you to be aware what is going on, you know, keep an eye on your investments etc and people talk about tax implications. You can do these inside an IRA account. You know, a lot of these places where you know, you can do this kind of trading. Unfortunately if you don't want to get all the benefits, you would need to have a little bit of leverage. You usually we use a 2, 35 pair leverage because again our goal is not to be liquidated. We don't want to be the people that Marcus indicates. Oh, look at all these crazy people. You know, with 100 pair leverage, we are not that ones, you know. And you know. But for example, an IRA. Why consider an IRA for the next 10 years, 15 years, you can do that within that tool. So there are a lot of things that you want to explore, understand, educate yourself. And these are very powerful tool that you can use.

Awesome. I wanted to add the last question there. I can just answer that for Brill. So Severio Giovanni Son has set up a free telegram channel. And well, it's part of the Power Law Quantonomy group. And. And we do have a Minotaur trading systems channel where a lot of people are sharing their settings and. And discussing their use of the algo. So. So maybe how does he reach out? How does he find the Telegram link to Savirio's?

Yeah, and we have also. It's also inside my.

And the Discord as well. Yeah, but I think you got to.

Pay to be Patreon. But. Yes, let me write down the name of the group.

The Telegram.

Yes, I'm looking for it. Let me put it in the chat window. See, I'm not super familiar with Telegram, but let me see if I can find group info. Info. It's called vdc power law. But I don't know how to join. I'm not. I'm opening it. Maybe we should ask Saverio to give us information. Yeah, I'm sorry for that. I don't know how to get.

Yeah, that's all right. I'm pretty sure if they go to Saviro's channel and watch one of his videos, it should. Yeah, yeah, it should be pretty easy to find. Or maybe I can actually post it. Maybe if I just go to the channel. Oh, here we go.

No, I'm not familiar with.

They'll find it.

Just.

Just go to Saverio's YouTube channel and ask. I think. I think he's got it in the description of his videos.

Right.

Yeah. I don't know how to invite people.

Yeah.

Okay.

All right.

Yeah, you'll find it.

And we have also a group in that if you want to join my Patreon. Oh, he's part of here is actually how you do that. And we have also channel there for the telegram for the mentor where we discuss anything related to me. Manotor. You can ask how many questions you are. We share our results and you know, but mostly, you know, the idea is that, you know, you should not be there trying to set Your own parameters all the time. Right. Most of these parameters will give you this goal, you know, some without taking a lot of risk. Right. Some people want to be a little bit more aggressive, some. Some people want to be. To have more frequent trades, etc. But if you are looking at these charts and you're saying, look, you know, the main thing for me is to preserve my capital and I want a relatively achievable goal, then even 1.5% a month, that is really achievable and you can count on it because it should be independent from the market that, you know, maybe we do better during the bull, you know, if we have a beer, it should work. Right. And then that is your base.

Right.

Try to check that for several months and then, you know, you can always talk to the team and the team will help you to set up things in a different way, you know, if it's needed. Sebastian, you want to maybe make a comment on that?

Yeah, definitely. You know, the out of the box settings that we set clients up with, they're built to trade bull and bear markets and they've been tested in those markets. Not, you know, and not just back tested, they've been live tested in markets as well. I mean, we've had our whole community weather dips in bitcoin's price at 55 to 60% and come out in profits. Right. So, you know, there is a lot of customization and I think you can really get stuck in the weeds of the settings. And even sometimes, to be honest, I think some of our customers are playing around with the settings, as we said earlier, trying to make something happen in the market when I think the sooner you realize that sometimes being in positions and holding and waiting is a psychological game. Right. You're not getting eaten alive by funding rate. You're not, you know, we're just simply waiting. And I think it's important to understand that the system is built to be set up and to run for months to years at a time. It's not something that requires constant adjustments, you know, so definitely, if you're someone who likes the tinkering side of things, we do have clients who do a lot of tinkering and have a lot of success doing that. But, you know, we will give you the settings that we've built and developed over a number of years, which put you in a position to succeed.

Yeah. Okay, let's see if we have any other. I think we cover most of the questions, relevant questions. You guys have any concluding remarks or anything you want to add to the Discussion.

There's one more question there. I said Giovanni from Dan saying is there a way to predict when the next leg will occur based on the liquidation levels? Okay, so good question. But it's definitely the wrong mindset and Marcus will attest to this. Right. We're not using using the liquidity heat map to predict necessarily where the market's going to go. It gives us a strong idea of where the liquidity is building and what the data is showing. So a lot of people make the mistake of looking at the liquidity heat map and seeing a big chunk and then trying to directionally go long. That's the wrong way to play it because the intraday the market can do anything going up and down. Right. So you want to simply use the liquidation levels as a key to look at live order book data of open interest and futures positions to see potentially where the market could go up or where it could go down. But you do not want to use it to discretionary trade and make positions based on what the pools are doing because you will lose money doing that unless you're an expert and understanding how to trade. So yeah, that's my input there.

Yeah. Just to add to that, you don't want to be in a predictive in nature strategy as no one can predict or control market behavior. You use the liquidity pools as a target, they become targets. So you don't know exactly when it's going to move there or how it's going to get there. But it is a target. So would use it as a target and get solid entries and have patience and then you'll be fine. Don't try to do it highly leveraged and where you're trying to make something happen from one day to the next. Predicting. Yep.

When you have the algo that it will naturally trade the liquidity pools for you.

Yeah. Still patience.

Okay, great guys. I think we covered a lot of interesting topics. We are watching what is going on with Bitcoin. We will be here next week to give another update. All right, thank you so much. See you next week.