Bitcoin Live with the Power Law & Minotaur Team, #26 11/27/2025

The Bitcoin Live show. We had a little bit of a break because I'm still traveling in Europe. But we will try to do it on a regular basis at this time. Every Thursday here is actually Friday night in Europe and then what time is in Australia?

Nice time.

11.

It's 11:30am Here.

So it's month 11:30 and is of 28 already, right? 20.

Yeah, 28.

28, yes. And we are missing Marcos because it is Thanksgiving. So it's still Thursday in the US and he's pretty busy with his family.

Yes.

Yeah, we just got back from Australia. He came to Australia for the conference here. We had a conference.

There is no Thanksgiving in Australia or in Italy, so. But Marcus is affected by that. We will still talk about the liquidity charts that usually Marcus described. Of course, he's the master of them. There is no substitute for his analysis. But we will try to do our best and hopefully for sure he will be here next time. Yeah. So we're going to show the charts. I'm going to start with the Power Law. Okay. And of course everybody is very aware that we have a. We had a major correction. Let's analyze it. Maybe power load. I know there are many. I read many theories of why this happened. You know, from what I understand, it seems there is some major manipulation. Okay. Now it could be that is also probably many things came together. Even this idea that maybe some people got affected by this psychology of a cycle. The main problem with that is we didn't really have a peak. We didn't really have these tops that we were expecting. It's a kind of different type of cycles, the ones that we saw before. So if there is not a peak, usually the corrections that we saw were kind of restoring to the mean of these large deviations that we saw in the past. Right. The deviations from the Power Law. But you know, as you can see from the chart, in the last several months, we simply moved along with our law with very small oscillations. So I'm not sure that the cycle component maybe, you know, some people thought that, okay, this is usually the end of a cycle. And so maybe they. Some of the OGs, you know, some of the old Long Time Holders started to sell because of that. Because usually it is what they do when there is the end of a cycle. But there were other reasons, you know, from. People probably are familiar with these. They're talking about these mccui decisions about keeping macro strategy in the indexes. We are going to make a decision on the 15. There was some JP Morgan bad mounting of microstrategy, so some coordinated attack, plus some problems with the exchanges in particular binance. So without going in the details, you know, because all these. So the usual approach for us is it's not much to find reasons, but to understand from the data from the chart how the market structures look like and then come up with some conclusions, you know, of what happens next. So from my point of view, looking at this power law chart or what I have to say is that yes, it looks like a big correction, but there's nothing completely unusual, right? So for example, we can compare it with the one that we had in April, March, April. And you can see this one, right? This. This one in March, April. Let me shift a little bit so you can see better. But these are rare, but they happen, right? So we went there, we had a similar correction just by high, maybe was a little bit deeper. If you look at the distance from the red line, there are two lines. One is the red line that is simple power law. And the blue line is like a more adaptive power law, but basically are the same thing. So we are showing, you know, that yeah, this deviation was pretty big in Copenhagen says if you want to compare it in terms of percentage and nothing too unusual, right. In particular, if you're thinking about how if really these manipulations were true.

There.

Was a kind of a shock response to all the things that were going. Multiple things going on at the same time. This deviation was not too unusual and we are recovering. Right. So these are this line that you're seeing here. First of all, I'm using these quite sophisticated indicator that is called the log periodic power law that identifies these changes of state. So that are indicated by this white line. Whenever there is this white line, it means that something is going to happen. Sometime the white line starts and then something else is going on. In particular, if there is a like it's pretty rare. You see, usually when there is a state, a white state, the price doesn't change for a long time. They tend to last long. But when we added this cascade, the price wanted to stabilize this. Why we added these white lines then probably was a chain reaction. So it continued to go down. But now it seems we are finding a bottom, right? Because there is a white line. This white line is, you can see also the price is separating from the white line. That is an indication with we are reaching a bottom. And this is also confirmed by this other indicator which is defined yellow line, you know, this yellow blue line where several things. Lower panel. This is a One of the newest indicators that I have is based on this idea of taking the returns, right? So it is basically the ratio between the price today and the price yesterday. So it's a, it's a percentage change in the price. Then we normalize it by taking an account the decay due to the power law, the decay in the returns from the power law. And what we get is basically, if you go through the math, it's the slope of the local slope of the power law. So you can think almost like there are a bunch of little power laws. These are daily time frame, so I call it daily slopes. So basically, how steep is the power law between yesterday and today? And you can have all, you know, all kind of different value. Because sometimes this power law is very steep in a positive direction. That means, you know, we are getting a gain in terms of returns. Other times is going down, so that is loss. But in average, it turns out you get the total power law. That is what you get also from regression. You see, this is this orange line, which is about 5.9. It is basically that close to powers to the power of six overall power law. So this is actually a very interesting parameter because over time you have a small little snapshot here, right? You see, you see two lines. One is the blue and then the yellow. So there are two timescales. The blue is a longer time scale on the order of few weeks. The yellow one, one is the one on the order of three days. So it changes much faster, right? And it's useful because first of all, in general, even if we went all the way to the beginning of bitcoin history, you will see that blue line simply oscillating around the orange line. That means simply that yes, some days we go up faster than the power law, other days we go down instead of going up. But in average, we are following the power law. So basically the power law is a mixture between this long term trend and these oscillations that are happening around the trend. And when the yellow line crosses this green line, the significance of the green and red line is that these are standard deviations relatively to these slopes. You can think about them as normalized returns. Normalize because we are taking away this decay due to the power law. And so it gives us a measure of where we are. Like for example, you can see the blue line deviated a lot in the negative directions relative to the orange line. But now it's coming back and the change is even stronger for the yellow line because it's what happens right now, right? It's a shorter time scales. And when we go in the red region means that we are far away on the left. So these are negative returns. When we cross the green line, we are going to positive returns. But basically the main interpretation of what we're looking at here is that yes, we are the, you know, these negative deviations because we had a lot of negative value for the slopes one after another. But now we are reaching a bottom and we are correcting. Right. So I'm expecting simply that we will go back to the power law. You know, this is a long, long way longer discussion to basically say we are going back to the power law. That is what I'm expecting.

And where's the power law for us?

Tell me again, with power loss, we go back to the power law. It depends where you're going. But right now it will be close to 120, something like that. Yeah, yeah. So it's probably 20, 25% away from the power law. It is reasonable. Right. And this is what I'm expecting that is happening. I don't see it will be. It's difficult for me to think that we're going to have a bear market, you know, without having a top. Yeah, it doesn't make any sense.

It doesn't.

It wouldn't make sense, point of view and so on, but we can check if that is consistent with the liquidity charts. But, you know, it made sense in the past to have this huge big correction of 60, 70, 80% because we went away sometime 10 times relatively to the power law. So, you know, we wanted to go back to equilibrium to, to a middle part and in its correct wet amount to basically cancel the big deviation in the positive direction. But we are not going enough that. So this is why I think this is just some kind of a local manipulation. And, and it's amazing, even under this very strong negative correction, we simply want to go back to the mean. And I think this is what is happening. We can check how long it will take to go back to the mean. I don't know. I don't know if we can get it from the other chart, like for, from a liquidity chart. Maybe if we add. Marcos, if we come up with a way of measuring that, but I think we'll take probably few weeks and then we should go back to the power law. That is my educated guess at the moment.

Yeah, that's, that's. It's good to see the turnaround here on this indicator because I know this indicator is pretty damn correct as well. So it's good to see that. That white lines being drawn at the bottom there.

You guys can hear me though, right?

Okay.

And we can. Do you have a liquidity indicator?

Yeah, Bring that up. Just exit.

Yeah.

Cool.

Okay, so I guess we can have a look at what we were looking at. And look, I have to admit there's been. There's. Sebastian within our program has been a canary in a coal mine. He's been warning everyone that bitcoin will do the unexpected. And you always have to be prepared for a deep pullback. And this is exactly what happened. Now, the reason why it didn't happen, as I guess we might have expected, is because of the bull market. You know, the bull market happening the way it does, everyone's expecting that, that sort of last parabola, the blow off top. But in terms of structure, the bull market's still here. Like on the daily. You can really see that it's just, it is a high, low, the daily. Now, Marcus was also saying that one or two conditions will happen. I don't know if you remember Giovani, but he did say that the market was going to either come down most likely and get the liquidity at the 90k before it bounces up, or potentially we can open it up. I remember he did a few weeks ago, he said it might come down all the way to 80 and go back up. And what happened is the worst scenario happened is that it took out a huge amount of liquidity. So when it comes back to what you're saying, Giovanni, as well, about manipulation and all these things happening, yes, they all did happen. But remember, nothing can be manipulated unless it's highly leveraged. Because at the end of the day, you can't manipulate someone holding a spot bag. So what we are seeing is huge buildups of liquidity, which basically are open interest positions that are going to be for sellers at these prices. And they have been forming since Maybe the mistake that I guess we might have made is thinking that it was only going to go as deep as the 90, which you can see here if I come back. And he wasn't going to go for the 5x. And the reason we thought that it was going to leave some of this liquidity for the bear market, we've decided to take it all out at once. But what's fascinating is literally that that week there.

Look at the candle.

Look at the candle. And it's. Any comment on that, Giovani or.

Yeah, well, just once again, like I think, and Marcus talks about this a lot. It's like, you know, you have the map of where it can go, but you don't always necessarily know the moves it's going to make. And when you look at that wick there, I mean, it literally took it out. If we zoomed in, I mean, it's taken it out within like the dollar. Right. So like, I mean, it's literally insane when you put it like that to the T. Right. That's where it stopped working. And yeah, there's a reason price is going back up now. Right, There's a reason price is going back up. So, you know, these tools, while they're not predictive, they basically give you an X ray vision on where the open interest is. And the reality is, is that what's funny is that the local liquidity seems to continue to line up with the power law, because I've got stuff on my charts as well. Well, Giovanni just said, you know, he expects us to go back to the power law. That's where the liquidity is now. Right. And most of the market is now bearish and short. And, and once again, you know, even though I was saying this could happen, I didn't expect it to happen. I still thought we were going to keep going up. So the reality is, you know, sometimes you don't know the move it's going to make. But the truth is like most people are bearish and short now. And I'm with Giovanni, I think that the short players, it's now their time to lose because a lot of the lions have lost it.

Yeah. And there's a point to make, is that the 3x liquidity, we just look at the 3x, it doesn't always get taken. So you can see if we go all the way to 20, 24.

It.

Got left out here. It got left here. And then on the tariff crash, the 3x liquidity pool also got taken there. Now personally, I think there needs to be liquidity for a bear market. Now this, this pool here is concerning on the 3.3X.

Right.

And I guess you could call this the bear market liquidity. And but what's fascinating about this is it ends at around that 70k which is the power law support. So if you look at it from a liquidity perspective, there is essentially so. So I'm going to be as bearish as possible because I think we need to be extremely conservative. There is a possibility that it could go and take out this liquidity and really head down to the powerless. But right now, which is at 42 too, but then you see that we've got these gaps Here in liquidity there's not much of a bridge. So taking us down to the parallel support now, it doesn't seem like it would get that far down because there's nothing there. But in the future, if we look at Giovanni's powerless support of the future, it is around 70k. So it does align better with this pool getting taken out later on. However, everyone needs to be prepared I think for the worst case scenario that happened. However, having said that, this is not the most profitable move. And why? Well, because the market makers that just took this liquidity pool, they don't want to sell this lower. That will make them unprofitable. They're going to want to sell that higher and then when they sell up here, they want to go to buy back lower. So from follow, follow the money perspective, right, what, what, what we think is the most profitable outcome for the big players is for the rally to happen to take out these high levels and then effectively to come back down to sweep this level. Which brings us to the 70k let's call it, or the 65k of the power law support in the future which will also line up with Giovanni cycle indicator Albuy a little bit off time wise it will still give us a cycle top and a bear market bottom. So I guess these are the two options. We either recover here, we go up and we come back down. The least likely option is we come back down and then go above. And just to explain that position again, if that happens, there's no liquidity once we're here. So in other words, the market would then be consolidating at an all time high which would be very, very, very different to be, it would almost break the cycle completely. Whereas this other outcome, it will, it will still be consistent with a cycle, it will just be off time wise. But if we consolidate at the high price point, then what are we doing? It doesn't really make sense. Are we going to go then up to 200 and then back down to 100? It just really throws things off. So I'm thinking that's the least likely outcome. I'm not, I'm not going to write it off. I think the most likely outcome also seeing what's going on with what Giovanni just said, is that we will have a, we will have a top. We'll probably just take out the full pools here at around 154 before we come down. Did you guys want to add anything to that analysis?

Yeah, well, just like Giovanni said, I think anything can happen. But the, the thing is like we've just had basically a bare market correction for the second time this year. I mean a bull market correction. And it just seems highly unlikely for Price to say go down another 30, 40% because it hasn't posted the highs to really validate a move down that much in my opinion. So, you know, I agree.

Yeah, I, I am made many comments about this. You know, beside the looking at these in terms of how big is the deviation from the power law or looking at these liquidity charts, I'm not sure we want to count at all on all the cycle indicators that we had before because I mean it was beautiful, it was great because I think the signal was there. It's not that because of people swing on these, right? There are a lot of analysts, they say, oh then it was all, we were all wrong about these four year cycles. No, this four year cycles existed, they were reals. They could do a lot of different studies. There was a signal there and there was a signal that said the four year cycle was real. There was a decay of the peaks, et cetera. It's just that something happened this cycle. And I think the biggest, you know, the biggest possible cause is ETFs. You know, we added. This is the general idea, right? I think in this power law is not affected because it simply means that there are different actors at different scale. It is exactly consistent with the power law idea that at this particular point of evolution of the power law we need big actors coming in that are these ETFs, these institutional players, but also they bring more stability to the market. And you will say, well, you know, wait a second, we just had a 30% correction. Well, because even now with these big players there are still some systemic risk. Mostly these crazy exchanges that have all kind of, you know, we really have a few places where you can trade bitcoin with large volumes. And some of these exchanges, I don't know if by incompetence or maybe they do it even on purpose because maybe they know that they can play these games with the liquidity, etc. You know, and, and so yes, you can have these big huge corrections while it's much more difficult to push it upwards, I think because the correction downwards can cause panic. If there is some kind of a glitch, then these liquidity providers need to react to the situation while building up pushes towards higher and higher prices. It means that all these correction effects, like for example, if a price goes too high, there are a lot of, in particular here right now, there are a lot of these Fund managers that are thinking, okay, I'm going to get a big bonus if I get. If I can show that my fund went up a certain percentage. Right. And so at that point they want to cash in and so they sell Bitcoin. And this creates a price correction downwards. So this, I think what happened, it's kind of stabilized the market for some time. This is why we moved along the power law. And then a glitch happened. The push the price downwards. But even there you can see that is you can go so far and then it's going to correct upwards. I'm not sure about introducing some psychologic to all these. Right. Beside that usually, you know, for several reasons December is quite bullish up to the end of the year. And then actually there is like usually a sell off after the, at the beginning of a new year. So it's possible that we have some stronger push simply because it's December. But I'm not sure you can see actually, you know, even from the chart that I show you before. I can go back to that if you want.

Yeah.

Yeah.

You see here on the, on the right actually this is a trading view, shows what happens usually at the end of here. This little. So it's green, orange, blue. And this is an anomaly this year because we should have already go up. This is not even a cycle thing because these are simply the previous years. It's now like previous cycles. So the end of the year usually is pretty bullish and we should have already seen this bullish behavior since the beginning of November. So do we go back to this bullish behavior because after this correction we still have an entire month of a bullish behavior. I don't know. I don't know if we can apply anymore these cycle patterns. You know, we are kind of in a new territory. Yeah.

So I guess what we're looking at simply is the fact that that liquidity exists there and that's the reason why it might go higher. That's it. That's the reason because there's open interest.

And, and we can see it.

It's the one data point that we can see above that 125 price.

Correct. Yeah.

And it's been built up for a very long time.

I think we grabbed all the liquidity that we needed to grab at this level and we should go up. I wish Marcus was here because he seems to be much more. He has deeper insights about how to read liquidity levels.

But let's have a look at. Do you want to share my screen? We'll have A look at the positions that the trading system.

Yeah, that is really what matters in the end, because what do you do with all these information? Right. Not much unless you have something that can act on it. And actually, I like these big changes in. It's kind of boring when nothing happens and when there is a big change in either direction. Our little bot is very busy, right. It starts to do good things, like buying cheap. So let's. Let's look at that.

Have a look. Maybe Sebastian can talk us through it. I can share my screen and maybe.

You can just walk through Sebastian.

So I've brought up on the screen more of a. I think this is the swing. Yeah, this is the. This is the swing bot, which has been waiting for this big move. So you can kind of see it fit in the screen almost perfectly.

If you don't mind, just for the general audience, because maybe some people are familiar, other people are not. Can you tell us in general about what this bot does? What is the idea?

Yeah, I can run everyone through it. So if anyone new to the show welcome. And essentially, it's an algorithm designed specifically to trade Bitcoin with the Power Law support in mind as the fundamentals of everything it does, especially in terms of the risk management and the purpose of the system. It is complex under the hood, but by design it's simple but very effective. And the beauty of what it does, as you can see on the chart, is designed to identify positions in value and buying Bitcoin at local bottom. So one thing you'll notice with our algorithm out the gate, is that it's very, very good at understanding where and when to buy Bitcoin. And it does two things that are very, very unique. The first thing it does is it trades without an emotional bias on Bitcoin, which allows it to accumulate like it's doing now. This is why we named the algorithm the Accumulator. Second thing it does is it accumulates during times of mass fear and mass panic. So it's important to note that, you know, the algorithm is not perfect, but we are kind of playing chess because at the current point in time, unfortunately around. And you can look this up on coin glass, around 98% of long traders lost everything. Right? So we're not talking about, you know, people licking their wounds and coming back to the market. We're talking about people having nothing left to trade with. And this is typically what the market does. Now, there's two things we're happy to do with this system. The first is to buy Bitcoin at value and the second is to sit in positions until there's an opportunity to sell. And actually, this is the only way to really play the market, because if you're swung by the direction of what bitcoin is doing, you're going to find it really, really difficult to make money. And this is why most people lost on that leg down, because, you know, they, they didn't have a plan and weren't prepared for that move. Now, even us, admittedly, right, we weren't necessarily expecting that to happen, right. So it took all of us by surprise, even myself, who's often kind of a little bit bearish on bitcoin.

But.

Although we weren't expecting it, we were prepared for it. And this is the most important thing. And this gives us the ability, even if our directional bias is incorrect, the algorithm is going to be in a position where it can take profit. And if you don't mind just moving across to the right now a little bit, Costa, I'll explain kind of what the algorithm's done.

That's right, yeah.

Beautiful. So you're going to see two lines on the algorithm. The first one is that kind of orange line. What that is the weighted average. That's the weighted average price. So it's the cumulative price of your open position. And what you'll notice is it's actually being dragged down as the market falls. That's because we're averaging our position and constantly buying bitcoin at good places, which is. Allows us to take our open position down with the market. So that has a huge advantage because you're not spot buying bitcoin. You're not stuck at the price you bought at and having to wait to break even. It doesn't do that. It always puts you in a position to exit. And on top of that, you have the green line, which is the take profit. The take profit can be either dynamic static, depending on how you want to run it. The algorithm is a, is a tool and you really can get it to do whatever you like. But the way this algorithm is designed is to essentially buy when liquidations are occurring. And that, that's the beautiful thing about this. So what you got to understand is while the market got liquidated, moving down, we were accumulating position, position. So our goal is to buy into the liquidation, so we're not getting liquidated at this point. We're lowering our average price and putting ourselves in a position to close when the market comes back up. And the beauty of that and why this works is typically after a large liquidity pool has been liquidated. As Costa just showed on the 5x, the market starts to come back up because you get a short squeeze. And, and what we have to understand as well is the reason price actually increases after a large liquidation event is shorts take profit. And for anyone that's new to be able to take profit on your short. Just so you know, the process of that is buying back the asset, because when you take a short, you're actually borrowing from the exchange. So that process of buying back the asset then creates buying pressure, which creates what's called a short squeeze. So what's happened is while the rest of the market got liquidated, we accumulated positions. And now that the market's rallying, the algorithm's in a position where it's actually going to take profit as all the short players get liquidated, which is very, very interesting. So, you know, it's simple but very smart at the same time. And that's the key to this. We're not doing, you know, price predictions. We're trading Bitcoin's natural, natural cyclical behavior where opening positions when the market's getting liquidated long and then we're closing positions where the market's getting liquidated short, which is why it works so well now. We're essentially in a position where not only did we not even come close to liquidation.

Can, can you tell us, can you tell us what are these values reading from the chart for this particular.

The value as in.

Yeah, average price. For the average price.

So currently. Can you, can you spring it across? So, yeah, so currently the average price is sitting at around 96k and our algorithm will take profit at 100k.

Right.

So right now the market's sitting at about 91. And what we have to understand as well is just to be clear, like the algorithm, it hasn't used up all the positions we've still got. Like, if the market does decide to dump another 30, 40, we're in a position where we can handle that. But the beautiful thing is, typically after large corrections like this, you get nice buying pressure. So we're not very far from our average price and our take profit is sitting at around 100k.

For example, as a 90, I have 2. Version 1 is 93. For the average price. Yeah. For the take profit, these are 98.

An interesting point to make on that is you can see this style also, we're talking about returning to the mean, right? Because we're using the power law support as a reference. Our take profit is actually much lower than the mean, which means that we are increasing our statistical probability chances of getting out of these trades much earlier than they would if we were doing a straight up mean reversion strategy.

I think that's an interesting point. That is really interesting and I think it's important to note, you know, because people get confused and you know a lot of, there's a lot of strategies out there that are like Martingale based. And the problem is, problem with those is that because they're not based off a signal and they're just based to buy. You know, let's just say you set it up to buy. Every time bitcoin deviates by 2% the problem is like on October 10th when Bitcoin had that flash crash, it will just buy up the whole range and eventually get liquidated. Whereas something like this that works based off a signal, it's not going to just like if the market has a capitulation the algorithm is going to survive because it understands the these events and it's only going to produce at the right time. And if it's seeing the market do something crazy, it's not going to put all of its chips into that basket. And I mean the algorithm, we discussed this previously but on the 10th of October, the algorithm wasn't even phased. Right. It was actually very, very easy for it to handle that. Whereas that was another event where the market had a mass liquidation. So I think sometimes when you're trading it's get. It's easy to get caught up in the profit. But the reality is to time and time again the algorithm is protecting your capital, sustaining.

It's actually an edge. It's in a certain sense an edge.

It is an edge. That's right.

Yeah. And you can see that it makes clever choices. It's not just an automated. Oh okay. When the price change by this amount, by these. It's all very, it is an intelligent system, you know. You know it's not perfect but you can see that it tries to find local minima where to buy the, you know, where to enter the market and.

Exactly.

And you know, like it's very nerve wracking. Of course, you know, when you see these big changes that look almost vertical, you know because of course here is stretched and it doesn't seem this correction doesn't seem that vertical. But in another charts like I didn't know my power law because we were zooming out it looks like almost, you know, it's very nerve wracking. But I know that I would love to go below in fact that you know, you can or even set it up if you have enough margin where your liquidation level is even below the power law because we use the power loss support as a reference. But you can say, you know what, I want to be even lower than that. Right. I think for example in check right now. But usually my liquidation levels are at 10,000, you know, Bitcoin 10,000. But I don't think we are going there anytime soon. Probably that would be.

You'd be three times lower than microstrategy liquidation level playing around there Giovani. So you can even set it up on the spot market and have no liquidation price. Obviously your returns will be affected. But I think and you made an important point Giovani. The system's not perfect. Now one of the things with the systems and one of the caveats like at the moment is you do have to be prepared sometimes to hold positions for extended periods of time. Time. That's one of the caveats of the system. But if you can have the patience. The beautiful thing about the system is it's always going to take profit and you're going to cover the fees you paid regardless of whether you're paying funding fees or not. So you know, it does require some patience to run the system.

And you know, I really strongly believe that this is a new way of outlink because sure, you know, if you have thousands of bitcoin, maybe just oddlying is the way to go. You know, you take a loan on your bitcoin or whatever. But many, you know, I would say the majority of people don't have thousands of bitcoin. Right. And instead of I was making fun of this kid look that is fixated in trying to tell people that you can retire with 0.5, 0.01 bitcoin or other things like that. You know, the idea is that if you have a few bitcoins I will not do this with less than you know, half a bitcoin. For example. If you have a few bitcoins and and you try to get some little of a hilt like this systems are doing basically all what you need. I I made this argument over and over again. All what you need is something close to let's say 1.5% a month right on top of your bitcoin because to. Dropping up here way to make sense of the. Is something that actually called seller says. I don't know why will relevant for the majority of bitcoiners if you don't. If you have a way of actually using this volatility. Right. It doesn't Matter, it should just matter. The long term trend. But we know there is a long term trend.

You drop down. Are you there session?

You're on mute.

Yeah, I'm still here.

Okay.

You might have dropped out. No, no. Good Italian Internet.

Then what you do is the volatility with your. Now I'm reaching parity.

But.

Utility people are saying that I'm sorry for that. I should have good Internet. But you know, we are in three different 2D, two different countries, right? You guys are in Australia. Anyway, so the bottom line is you want to use the liquidity, sorry the volatility as a friend. And if you do that and you get a little yield, even 1.5%, I kind of focus on that because it's say it's an aggressive yield, but it's very much. And you know, you guys can confirm that it's a very achievable yield for the bot, right? And 1.5%, in fact even 1, 1% in 10 years means three times. So imagine your system that in 10 years, and this is these 10 years is fundamental, right? Because we're not talking about getting rich within few months or few years. We are going to have these as a kind of a discipline, right? That we are focusing on a 10 years horizon. So in 10 years, if even 1% will give you three pair, you're multiplying your Bitcoin by three times. Now we're talking something serious, right? And Bitcoin is going up in the next 10 years, going up 15 times. But that will mean if you can multiply by three times, you'll be coined. We are talking about 45 pair in 10 years. And if you get 1.5, we are talking about more like five times, that is 75. So these are the numbers that you should have in mind. And then I don't, you know, it's not because we're trying to sell this system that in our sense we are because you know, it's a business, but it's, it's a, it's giving value to the community. I really believe this very strongly that everybody should find some way of making use of this volatility. Otherwise it's a nuisance, right? It's not something useful. Why will you care having volatility, volatility at all. Unless you know what micro, what our sailor mean is that there are, you know, there is interest in derivatives like MicroStrategy or Bitcoin itself because somebody somewhere is going actually to make use of it, right? But why? Why to let these other entities make Use of a volatility. Of a volatility when, when you actually can use it yourself, you know. So I know he says not to trade Bitcoin and in fact we are not trading bitcoin.

We are trading futures.

We're not trading directly Bitcoin. Anyway, so that is my rant on this topic. You guys want to add anything to that?

Yeah, I agree. One thing I wanted to talk about is just the, the recent liquidation levels. And, and really, really if, if doesn't matter what kind of trading you're doing and who you are, is that, you know, the one thing that we've learned from working with you, Giovanni, the one reference that we always use is that power law support and no matter what you're doing, whether it's crypto loans or trading futures or just looking to buy and hold, if, if your eye is always on that line, you're usually going to be safe than 99% of the public who are trying to, to generate short term performance sacrificing, you know, really risk levels. This is how, this is why people are getting liquidated because they're highly leveraged. The power loss support is really our guide and that's, and that's really the missing piece to the trading system. And anyone following the power law support as a protection level is nowhere near any kind of liquidation. I think right now some of our, well, the accounts that we're looking at are around what, 1120 margin, somewhere between their utilized margin right now. So there's still plenty of reserves. And this is another reason why this system is more meaningful for five, six, seven figure accounts because we do sacrifice our performance for safety. But you know, we are one of the ones that didn't get liquidated during this event because we're able to protect ourselves. Do you have any questions as well? Because Sebastian's got a link.

Yeah, yeah, yeah, we can go to the questions. I don't see a lot, but maybe this one. They are asking this.

I can answer this.

Yeah, it's, it's a good question. Richard Sebastian, Sebastian's beta testing, he'll give you an update.

Yeah, Rich, good to hear from you man. And yeah, we've, we've actually officially finished development of the.

Can you, can you give a contest to this question? Because maybe some people don't know what.

Yeah, that's a good point, Giovanni. So for basically the better half of the last year, well since about maybe April did we start production. Costa, We've been developing our own in house proprietary algorithmic software. But we can now run Everything we do and a lot of the stuff Giovanni talks about in house. So it is going to be anyone that has experience with applications like three Commas or Wonder Trading. They're kind of like general trading applications that will allow you to connect into exchanges with API keys, things like this. What we're building is going to be similar. The key difference is though, we're putting the whole focus around our strategies and what we do. So everything about, you know, understanding how to calculate liquidation levels, understanding what Giovanni does and his power loss support, it's going to be a hyper focus on our strategies and how we operate. So once again, nothing's changing. We're not creating a platform where you're sending us funds. Everything stays the same. Your funds always sit in your own exchange. The key difference is now we're going to have a platform that's exclusive for what we do and there's going to be a lot of alpha inside there. So we're excited to share that with you guys and we're aiming to have it done this year. We're in beta testing at the moment and I'm working on it all day, every day finding, you know, different little bugs and fixing it and I'm confident we'll be done by Christmas.

Very good. Then there is this question. Yeah, I mean to be honest, I kind of like if it is not one to one correlation.

Yeah.

Everything else, you know, then that one to one not having one to one because actually it offers, it gives, you know, makes the value proposition of Bitcoin better. Because you can always say, look, you know, it's. If you want to diversify, get Bitcoin. Right. If you want to make an argument for pension funds or things like that. Because the market, the nor the traditional market does this Bitcoin does something different that means, oh, it's not correlated or it is anti correlated. Right. So sometimes it needs to go down to be anti correlated. If a rest of the market goes up, you know, to me it doesn't matter anymore if we don't have these crazy bull runs. We don't need that. Bitcoin is always on in a burn. If we are following the power law, we are perma buran. Right. It's just a slower burn when. Because even when people say, oh, you know, Nasdaq, okay, look at the growth of NASDAQ over time. If you're looking at the long term growth of NASDAQ over time, for sure it didn't follow Bitcoin in as it performed in the past, but also in the future I doubt that in 20 years from now the NASDAQ will be worth it 100 times more because simply it barely follows over the long term inflation. It's just like you are basically running in the same place, right? Inflation is taking away almost all the gains than something like NASDAQ gives you. Of course, sometime it can seem that it's going faster than that, but overall when you look at the long term trajectory, it's not doing very well. And bitcoin will be under pair in 20 years. So that is being in a bull run on a continuous basis. Right. So maybe this idea that we're going to have these bull runs that are 10 pair deviations from the power law is gone. It's not there anymore. But it's maybe a good thing. This all, you know. So the important thing is that we continue to move along with power law with some level of deviations. Yeah. So that is really what matters I think. What do you think, guys? Yeah.

No, I was just going to say like the market is maturing as well, you know. And I think people have to understand that as bitcoin's market cap increases, it does get harder to grow in value. So I think, you know, these days of, I really agree with Giovanni, you know, like the days of Bitcoin pumping 10x very quickly, they may be coming to an end. And that's okay, you know, because the reality is we can still continue along the slope and that's not a bad thing. Yeah, I really don't think it is.

Because actually when the entire proposition is this, you know, this is how I see it. Because it's not just that I'm trying to sell this idea to people. It's also what I'm trying to think for myself. Right. Because I am, I believe in bitcoin. I don't want to own anything else. I have very little of basically anything else. If and in fact probably anything else is stuff like ibit. But it's still related to bitcoin mostly because I, I do also options trading, you know, on iBIT. That is the main reason. So what I'm seeing right now is that bitcoin is the best of both world. What I said, we have this long term trajectory. We have enough volatility that we can extract and use to multiply our bitcoins. So if we merge these two things, it's perfect. You know, they, you know, the big bubbles were very exciting when we went up, but then very nerve wracking when we went down. You know. And it also created, it made it up not very appealing to large institutions. Right. And I think really, I strongly believe this huge correction that we had right now was a glitch. Is the equivalent of a glitch. Hopefully we don't see them in the future anymore. I AM okay with 10, 15, 20%. The bot does fine even with that 30% correction, you know, but if we have multiple 10% corrections, probably that is really ideal. So I will not worry too much about cycles, you know, I don't know because then what do you do with these cycles, right? What do you do with this if you don't act on them? Why they are relevant to people, you know, they are not. You know. So this is also along this question, right? Yeah. Believe the top was reaching. I don't, I don't think we had a top. We don't. We didn't have a top. We. I will not call it a top. Yes, we reach all time high, 125,000. But it was not a big deviation from where the Power Law was anyway. And so it was not the top. I will not call it the top. So yeah, and if we see.

Maybe.

We go back to. We get all time high at the end of the year simply because we go back to the Power Law and the Power Law is already by the end of the year should be already around 130 or something, then that will be a all time high. But I don't think we are going much away from it. Maybe 5, 10%. I think it's easy. It's more difficult to get away from the Power Law going up now than going down. Because if there are glitches like these and it's easy to get down because that is also due to how everything is interconnected and this point of failures that remain of the exchanges. So maybe in the future, hopefully we get more decentralized exchanges. Maybe there are major to protect from big glitches like this. But yeah, this is a unique event, something that happens once in a while. I don't think we were going to see many. Yeah, all of it. I agree.

Well, maybe we'll leave it at that because I think Sebastian has to go.

I think Gio is frozen again. Yeah, but yeah, I do have to go. But thanks everyone, good show. And I will keep coming on every week and analyzing the market.

Yeah, so before it was evident right in the clock that we were this periodic deviation. This is why you plotted in a clock because you could see that at a particular time in the cycles we were deviations. Right. So if you plot it in A clock. It looks like more like an ellipsis. It is squeezed in one direction and in this other direction it squeezes. So you know, the radius is smaller. But I look at it, in fact I can post it the next few days. We are still following the power. The power law spiral. But we are not following the full model. What they call before the full model that included these deviations. You have to understand, even in that full model we still say that anyway these deviations were going to be smaller and smaller. So if we had a deviation right now, according to that model we will have 80% deviation. Okay. 200,000 was an 80% that we predicted in the past was an 80% deviation. If in the next cycle I, I don't have it in. In my head because I don't remember. But it will have been even less. It will have been so in four years from now when we are. When we will have a next cycle, even if we had a peak this cycle, that peak could have been even smaller. Let's say maybe 20%. So there. Maybe this was going to. Even if we had a 200k this was going to be the last cycle cycle anyway as a serious large deviation from the. From the power law. So the cycles were going to die anyway. So it's. I don't think it's still interesting. We can still plot the clock because it's an interesting way of plotting the power law. Like if it was a spiral. But these big deviations are I think a. I think of the past. Even if we follow for example people now we're saying oh, the. The PMI cycle. Right. Of the micro cycles. Okay, then what. Have you ever seen the deviation of NASDAQ in terms of even Nasdaq cycle? Right. SP 500 cycle. But they are very small. They are like small little bumps. Bitcoin was unique in having this huge big ten pair. Deviation from the power law may look like crazy and it attracted a lot of attention but because we had a very small market cap in the past, we are leaving. It's almost like we are leaving childhood. The coin is maturing. It's becoming a much more stable type of asset with this long term trajectory. Yeah. Okay.

We shall say we've got. It's going to be an interesting two months.

Yeah. So maybe we can take this last question and then we can and appointment. I asked it because I bought 20k and they would like to take some.

Profits to re enter non financial advice.

Yeah.

And buy more Bitcoin at the bottom with your market.

My comment is it's without a blow off top there's not going to be a hard bottom. So I wouldn't do anything unless there's a blow up top and. And we haven't seen a blow off top.

You bought a 20K. Yeah. You did a good thing. So just hold on it, you know and continue to DCA and if you have enough, I don't know how much you bought it. I really strong suggest you not because you know we are trying to market something. But we are. Yes we are. And we will be lying if we didn't say that. But I will not stay behind a product that I didn't believe in and I'm using this product. And in fact like I say, I have a name for this. I call it Odling plus. This is a new way of being a smart bitcoiner. Before Odling was all what you needed to do maybe during the cycle I recommended. I say maybe you can rebalance a little bit if you can time the top, et cetera. But it was kind of nerve wracking idea. And anyway. Right. And now we have something where you don't have to get nervous at all because it is all done in a sense. It's almost like we are reproducing what people see in the cycles. You know this idea that you want to take some profit and re enter. You can do it all the time. Why will you wait every four years? You know that was a four year opportunity. Now with a system like ours you can do these all the time. Basically this is what we are suggesting and you are not even doing it with your stash. You're not doing it with your collateral, you're doing it with instruments, with derivatives. So the result is that actually you're multiplying your bitcoin without risking your bitcoin. So I don't know what else I have to say to convince you that this is actually a good approach. You know. Yes, there is a cost to it. It's an investment like all the investments, you know, it's. It requires some sacrifice. But I really truly believe that this is a service that we are doing to the community. So you know we have a number there. There is. You go and watch. We have a link. Go and watch this with webinar. Learn more about these. We are also organizing invite only webinar. Right Costa?

Yes.

Can you tell me a few words about that?

Yeah. We're going to be putting together a webinar just to explain more the the journey that Giovanni's had with with Minotaur. And we'll be promoting it for around a week. It's going to be an invite only webinar so you'll have to register for it and hopefully we'll be doing that.

In the next sort of seven.

Yeah, we will. I will advertise, we will have links on. On my X and Costa sex and so on. And you know, if people are interested in having a more one to one discussion and going the details. We already have webinars where you can learn a lot. But this will be a live webinar where you can interact with us and it will be close. So, you know, just for people that are interested in the system itself.

Yes.

Where is the link? The link? We are not ready to show a link yet. We are organizing it, but it will be on my.

Yeah, we'll release it.

Yeah, you will find it there when. When it's ready. Okay. And you can always DM me and let me know that you're interested and you have a list of interested people and I will send it to you. Okay, guys, we're going to close here. It's probably what, 2:00am here? Yeah, 2:35 in Italy. Thank you so much to have followed us. And we will be here next week too. All right, thank you so much everybody. Bye.