Bitcoin Live with the Power Law & Minotaur Team, #3, 3/27/2025

Okay. Hi everybody. This is Giovanni. He's a. It's a March 27, 2025 and this is a show number three of this series that we are going to do every Thursday at this time. So I am here with the Minotaur team that are partners with, I'm working with. They are specialized in trading Bitcoin using different methods, but in particular some kind of a form, form of a very smart DCA where you know, we trade mostly futures contracts. And the idea is to use the volatility of the coin in our advantage. So when nothing much seems to happen like you know, recently, but there is still some volatility, the price goes up, down. We can open positions with a relatively small leverage and then gain. You can actually directly buy Bitcoin with whatever gains you made. So it's a tool that you know, we can discuss a little bit later after we analyze the market that people can use to actually improve their bitcoin positions. So. But we are also excellent market analyst. Marcus is very good with this liquidity charts that he shows. He has a very nice trading view indicator. It's an invite only script and you can sign up for that, you know, to use that script. There is a link actually in the banner below, you know where you can apply to get the script if you're interested. Okay. And if you're interested in the trading system, there is a another banner that you will be able to use to call the team. Set up a call. You can always DM me and ask for me for more information. You can DM me on X if you're following from YouTube or Twitch. I will also put some links in the video after the call, after the show. So you can sign up with, you know, you can follow me and contact me if you're. If you're interested anyway. So let's dive in. Hey everybody. First of all guys, you know, monitor team. So we have Costa, we have Sebastian's, we have Marcus. Let's dive in in looking at the market. Indicators. So I know there is a lot of going on here. Go to some of the usual indicators. So but these are more recent ones are focused on let's say not the overall trend in particular but let's say in the to more recent activity. We can look also how everything looks like in, in the long terms. So you know these are indicator is showing periods of, of burns, periods where we have some corrections, negative corrections. It's pretty precise. Right. It finds nice places where to buy and sell. The more interesting one is this blue line that you See here. How do I got. How did I get this line? This line was obtained by observing that global liquidity. I tried many measures of global liquidity. You know, not just the usual M2s from different countries, but also other measures that are available in trading view. And really the picture doesn't change much. It's possible maybe there are other ways to improve our understanding of global liquidity. But so far by simply adding basically almost everything I could find that is a micro economic indicator on trading view doesn't really change the future. So M2 is still a pretty good measure because you know, we are not trying to do something exact where, okay, the price will get to this point exactly given the global liquidity. It's more like some general trend. So it's. It's clear from the some of the posts that I made in the past where I show very strong correlation between the global liquidity in particular M2 units. Actually some kind of sum from all the different contributors in the world. You know, from large country to relatively small countries. This is global liquidity. There is a power law of about 9.3, but it's really amazing because it means a small change in liquidity creates a large change in price. I have mentioned in some of my other shows that even a small change of 10% liquidity because of a crazy power of 9.3. So basically you will have to like what to see what is the change in price given the liquidity, right? So 1.10 is 1.1.1, right? If you express it as a ratio and you take the power 9.3 of that number, you get 2.4. It sounds crazy, right? But this is what the Math shows, that 10 change in liquidity, global liquidity should produce almost a 10 up of a price if a relationship continues to be true. The other interesting aspect of this relationship with global liquidity is this shift, right? So since there is a shift, many people have discussed these, analyze it, try to explain it. But one possible explanation I. I want to go deeper, but is that relatively safe assets like gold get impacted early by a change in global liquidity. And in fact there is almost no delay. You can see for example gold at a very recent upwards movement that seems to be correlated. Now gold most of the time doesn't do much. So I need to study better the relationship. So even if it is a relationship, it's more like one to one. You know, there is no. These are incredible leverage to due to the power law. But you know, something that I'm still exploring. But one of the things I Noticed is that there is no a delay. And Bitcoin is still perceived as a relatively risky type of investment. So it takes some time for these effects from the liquidity to ripple down to Bitcoin. And this is why we observe this. At least it seems a reasonable explanation. So liquidity has been growing and you see here, it looks like something that is going to happen in the future. Because this is a model of the price itself. I'm not projecting here liquidity per se, but I use already this power of 9.3. Right? Or to convert it in into a possible price for Bitcoin, it needs to be taken with, you know, a grain of salt because yes, there is this relationship, but it's not super precise. But you know, the main thing. So take it more like directionally. So if this relationship continue to be true and it has been through at least roughly. Right. You can see here how it looks like it has been roughly true for the last 10 years. I don't know why it stops here. Let me refresh.

Okay.

Because it's supposed to continuously was, it's really good up to 10 years of this, of bitcoin history. See for example, here is a law here, there is a law in the model. So it's now perfect, but it's pretty reliable in general to tell us the general direction. So if this relationship is true, then we continue to go up. There'll be a point, a turning point. But turning point again depends on which shifting day you're using. Is it 70 days is 100, right? I think there is no one single value. It's probably a range of value where some features fit better if you use 70 days. Another other feature of this price action fits better if you use under day. So anything in that range and that means in terms of projecting where this shift is going to happen is basically really around the corner. Like in the next few days, like in the beginning of April, if it could be delayed. But you know, if you take it at face value, it's actually beginning of April, like in few days from now. And then we should start to see the price growing relatively fast upwards. So I hope this holds on and this is exactly what happens. These other graphs are also interesting because for example, this one shows different frequency contributions. So we are using a tool that is called Fourier transform in this, in this indicator. And basically it's showing the activity of Bitcoin at different timescales. So frequency is basically the inverse of the period. Right? So low frequency, if we start to this low value means long time scales so usually notice what happened.

Right.

Whenever we see an upward movement, the low frequencies are activated first and then all the other higher frequency come in as the price continues to go up. So it's an early warning system. We see some green here being activated. So it could be a fake and sometimes you do have fakes or, you know, at least a small movement up or maybe the beginning of this rally. So everything seems to be aligned for the rally to happen, but we are still kind of oscillating 87k because basically this will correspond if there is a strong relationship between liquidity, global liquidity and price. They're still in this kind of flat area. Right? There was a price correction when we are in this flat here. So let's see. This is the best I can say about this. If you, and, and we can go and look at the other indicators.

Later.

I don't know why Trading View makes many copies of the same thing. It's very annoying when you open an indicator. But yeah, I will, I will look for the other indicators that we usually work with and then we can come back to it and see where we are in terms of the long term trajectory. And, and in particular because many people are asking if we are still, you know, projecting a peak around 200k for this cycle. We can discuss that in a moment. But I, I would like instead, Marcus, to go with this analysis of a local liquidity, not the global liquidity, but liquidity that is internal to Bitcoin itself.

So, okay, let's.

You want to share your. Yeah, share your screen. All right, I will be able. Okay, great. Go ahead.

All right, Giovanni, thanks for the, for the macro update. So now let's drill down and take a look at the local liquidity picture. As we always say, as I always say, liquidity is the fuel of price action. It leads price discovery. Price creates liquidity and liquidity creates price action. So they are chicken and egg. They are bound, entangled together internally. So just looking at this, this is the day chart on Bybit Exchange and we're looking at a composition of 25x leveraged positions, 10x leveraged positions and 5x leveraged positions. So a very big sample size of the, of the trading marketplace. Now, someone asked last week, okay, we're only looking at Bybit, there's Binance, there's other major exchanges. That is true, but they're going to be extremely similar to this, almost indistinguishable. So we can just use this as a reference. They're all going to be basically the same. So Currently we can see that we have a massive amount of law short side liquidity here. The shorts are still intact and we can see that the market as a whole is not really harvesting or liquidating the shorts yet. Yet I emphasize yet. And currently we are liquidating the longs side of the market, aggregate market. So right here we were in a. We were in a relatively tight range all the way from November and we have a volume profile here. And recently as of about 30 days ago or so in February, we broke out of that range and we deviated below our value area low here and we deviated in this lower level. So we've been down here for about a month and we took a massive amount of liquidity on that downward impulse there. And we've. We're trying now. Currently we're in a. We're in this m. We're in this transition point where we have some bearish action going here with lower highs. And as of recently, as of about the 15th, 10th March or so, we kind of have some bullish consolidation going as well. So we kind of have a cross current here of where we're either going to go up or down. So very, very locally we've been on a consolidated, a very tight consolidation for about two days or so and we are fighting to get back into this value area, the value area low. So we can turn this and flip this into support, then we can start heading up. There's some isolated liquidity here. These are very good targets. The market likes to go at after those. So we can look to potentially be headed towards the point of control. If we can flip this into support, we should know in a day or 2 at about 96k. The other scenario would be if we lose this value area low. There's also some confluence. We have a 200 moving average here, a 21 day moving average and we have this value area low. If we lose this level and then that becomes some form of resistance, then we can go back and finish towards finishing the remaining liquidity that's left. There's a. There's liquidity remaining at 76 all the way to about 71k. It's not potentially, we're not bearish or anything. I'm a permeable. We all hold bitcoin. We want it to go up, but we only read the technicals as they develop. So there's an op. There's a chance that we can take the remaining liquidity and then there's a scenario where we do not have to go back there. So the Key is we will know which way here in a day or two as this transition develops. But we are definitely in a tight, tight transition here. To go up to flip that into support or lose that level and then it becomes resistance again. But overall the light, the latest price action has been bullish. This is a very good sign. So the longer we hang out in this area, the more this area becomes price strong becomes a support. And then now the next, the last question is, okay, when we get through harvesting all of the long liquidity, when do we take it up to. We. We bought. We bought low, the algorithms have bought low and now they have to sell it high. Right. These are all locked in sellers that are going to be liquidated, they're forced to sell when they're liquidated. So when do we go harvest the short side liquidity? And there's a massive amount of it. So here's how we can get a general idea. And this is a good confluence with the Power Law. It agrees with the same information as far as timing. So all we have to do, the only reference we really have, is the last time the long side liquidity was taken. And that was in last year. August of 2024 was the last impulse and that took out the last of the longs. So we'll take that time frame and then we'll measure out how long it took before they started taking out the shorts. So we'll kind of split the action right there. That's about 80, 80 days. We'll round that down to 80 days and then we'll bring that same measurement forward. Just bear with me here as I move the chart over. So we'll bring that forward and we'll give it a few more days here because we haven't gotten down here yet. So we'll give it a week more and then we'll project that forward. I need a little bit more room here. We'll project forward 80 days and that puts us in the June, June area, which is what the Power Law says the same thing. So we look at historical liquidity liquidation performance. It is in correlation with the Power Law. And I just want to give a shout out to the guys at Trading Differently who designed this algorithm. It's an overlay on Trading View. I use it exclusively. Without it, it's like flying blind. Can you imagine for a second if we just turn off the liquidity, that's what the typical retail traders looking at. There's a lot to be desired with looking at it. Looking at a price action this way, there's a Lot of missing information. But when you can see the liquidity, it's like an X ray that completes the story. Now you know why price reacts the way it does and what's happening on these wicks. So I strongly encourage you to check it out for yourself. You can reach out to Giovanni, to the trading different team to get a link if you so desire. So that's my update Geo.

We have actually in the banner below there is a link with a code and that code is associated with markers actually. So because he's doing such a good job in showing how to use this tool, please use that code and you get a discount. Right, Marcus? If you, if people use that code.

You get 10 off.

10 off. So please use out the discount. I will also put the link later. Photo Next and on YouTube so everybody can see this.

All right, I'm gonna turn it back over to you, Giovanni.

I've got a question for you, Giovanni, about that, right, Because I know a lot of things this cycle. Well, right now the situation we're in perhaps has played out a little bit differently to what you've expected, right?

Yeah.

So what, six months ago you hadn't seen what Marcus had been doing with the liquidation maps. If the price Dropped now to 70k, is your perspective different having seen the liquidation heat maps and what Marcus is doing than it would have been if you were flying blind like Marcus says? Do you feel like if we drop tomorrow to 70k, would you be less concerned now knowing what we're looking at on the hemat? I just want to know how that affects your thinking, having that visibility now.

Yeah, I, I can tell you and we can see how we, we can integrate this piece of information. But my thinking about these, it's, it's based on. So let me, let me show you a couple of things. Yeah. So this is, you know, whenever I did this analysis before this price correction that we had recently, it was all based on analyzing the patterns from previous cycles. Right. Because in my opinion, if you want to understand long term trajectories, that is the best tool we have now. You know, we have all these other tools. So it's important to see like always when you analyze these charts, convergence, right. You want to see I think in particular the liquidity, both the global and the local liquidity. Because, you know, this is a journey that we're all doing and trying to understand better and better the coin and more information, the better. Right. And we are getting a better understanding of what bitcoin does in different situation and so on and so Any tool that help us to do that is great. I think a liquidity if, you know, if I if, for example, I studied better this local liquidity that by the way, something that I want to continue to do and see how integrates with everything else. One of these chart actually has liquidity levels. I've already, you know, it's one of the charts where people can access via the Patreon program. You can activate if you are not beautiful as the ones with, you know, beautiful looking. And also with all the right information. There are different levels. You cannot debate them, you know, by in this particular chart, but they are telling us a similar picture, right? What Marcus is showing is another level of interpretation and understanding. Even if you have the right information, you will not be able to read this also. So I'm glad that Marcus actually is giving a tool to interpret them. But the overall picture, right. That I always use was simply to compare beside the Power Law, right? The Power Law is another tool that is basically like instead of flying in the dark, you're flying with the radar, right? Because is still telling us what is the general direction of the overall pattern. And that has not been broken. If anything, you can see even visually, right? Because see, these are the different cycles superimposed basically every four years, right? So this was the previous cycle. This is the current cycle, the previous cycle, a cycle eight years ago. They are all on top of each other. So you can actually compare them one by one, given the same dates just four years before, right? And you can see right now, the white line is the Power Law. We're following the Power Law. If anything, we are following it too closely. Because even if it is a small correction, right? We had a correction up, a correction down. So the average is the Power Law. You can even see that with your own eyes that we are continuing along with Power Law path that is now broken. And in fact, if we have a complaint is that there is a time when it should be broken. Because you know, it's part of what Bitcoin has done before. Plus it gives us a lot of opportunity, right? To bought something that has a general trend, but also it does. I always say it's like Bitcoin going to Cancun, right? Because I like this Marcus type analogies. It goes to Cancun, right? It does fun and then it comes back home, right? So it's great to have a an asset that has done these crazy things where we had plenty of fun during a bull run, not much fun during a beer. But if you knew it was a Bear that lasted a certain amount of time. It had a certain particular correction that even that was predictable up to this point because basically follow the same pattern over and over again for the last 15 years. Even that if you were aware of that and you stick with it and, and you trusted it could be used, right? Because all what you have to do is short during the time. There are ways of making money even during a bear market. So you know, it's great to have such an asset. The question is, are we still going to do that? Right? Is this predictability of this cycle true? And the power law? Yeah, because if you go up like we did, you know, we. I even predicted that we will see a, an upward movement. I mentioned that for many months. And it happened exactly when I said it was going to happen in November. The price went up. It looked like exactly like before. In fact, you see here I'm so trying this panel. I'm subtracting the power load trend and well then you see whatever is left over also normalize to take because you know, every bubble, the previous bubble were bigger and bigger. So it's not a fair comparison. But there are ways of normalizing by also taking out this decay of a peak. So if you both take out the general pattern, the power law and also account for the decrease in the height of the peak, then you can see every single cycle looks very similar, right? Look at this. This was the orange one is the last cycle. The red one is a cycle two times ago, right? And they repeat itself for, for this kind of things. It's super, super precise. There is a. This period of time where we go up. So so basically it's the bull. Then we go down and you can see the blue line is the average of all these cycles. So it looks really. There is a pattern, right? Cyclic pattern. We go up, we go down, then we stay flat. Flat means we follow the power law in general. We follow right, because even when we go up, then we go down. That is the entire point. They cancel each other. And so if you. The overall result of going up and then down is basically staying on the power law. This is why even if we have bubbles, we still keep going along the power law. That is crazy. And then there are two years where we simply follow the power law, right? And we were supposed to start these here going up. You know, this was supposed to be this blue area where we go up. I started here at the purple line. I know there is a lot of information in this chart, but that is the point I try to give, give Like a summary of everything. Probably I should color code this area blue like I did here, because it's the beginning of a bull market. So all these is supposed to be in the bull market. And notice what happened all the other cycles started to leave a power low. That means they were not flat anymore. They started to grow. The previous cycle started to do a lot of things in this early phase of the bull run because it had a. Like a double top. So kind of anticipated the peak by several months. And then we had a second peak. This is why you see all this crazy activity in the previous market in. In the. In two rounds ago, you know, we still left. See, this is represented here. We still left the flatness of the power law. And then, you know, it's not flat. It's. It's a flat line. It's a line, but it's a line that goes up, right? And very fast. For the people we think it is low, it's not. It's still the power of time, the sixth power of time. But you know, we go even faster during this runs. Interesting enough, it was a correction at that time during this period that almost cancel. Almost that going up. So you can have situation like that. You could have corrections. The main difference is this, you see, this one didn't cross yet the power law. So it was still very close to the support line of a power low, right? Because this was almost a textbook example of these periodic patterns. We stay close to the support line, then we leave it and we start to go up, right? And. But see, a very important landmark is when we cross the power law. And this one didn't cross yet. It happened later. This one did it because like I say, it was anticipated, right? It anticipates what usually happens in a bull market. We are in a weird situation that it's difficult to interpret because we never had such a situation. And it could be right, it could be that all these different situations happen and start still the overall pattern is the same where we still have time to go there, right? To be. To go to where I projected the peak to be many months, for many months and differently from other people. Instead of just guessing, oh, it could be 300, it could be 400. Or using prophecies, you know, and dreams and aliens and things like that, you know, that are ridiculous. I use math, you know, and the mat. It derives from how the peak decrease, right? If you take seriously all these regularities of Bitcoin and say they continue to happen even if there are local changes. The idea was, okay, if you extrapolate how fast this peak decay over time, then you can calculate what will the next peak will be. And the projection was 200,000. Because basically it goes more or less like that. It was a sequence, mathematical sequence, where we went about 15 times away from the power law. The first time we had a bubble that was completely crazy. Can you imagine if we had that happening right now, 15 times away from the power law level? Power law level is about 100,000. In fact, by the time we reach the end of the year, where the peak was supposed to be will be 1, 130. So imagine 15 times that, right? That will mean more than a million dollar bitcoin. That's what happened early on in the history of bitcoin. Then we had 10 and then we had five. And this time it's supposed to be 80%. Only 80%. So not even two times. And that, that what gives us the 200K. Now the big question is, are we still on track for these 100,000, 200,000? And I will say yes, it's becoming less and less likely as time passes by. Mostly because the reason why we went to 15 times higher is because bitcoin could do crazy things like, you know, for several months every, you know, if you average the returns be more than 1%, we don't do that anymore. You know, yes, there are good days where we can do 4 or 5%, but then we have several days where we don't do anything. So if you average bitcoin is going right now, in fact do the theoretical calculation right now if you follow, the power law is 0.1%. So that is what our average returns are, are. And in fact, you know, we are kind of following the power law. So that is the average return. Imagine as we continue to come closer and closer to that date, now we will have to go faster, right? So, so right now in this particular moment to go to 200k we will need, if, if a continuation of a bull run started today, we will have to do about 0.3% per day. That is a lot for Bitcoin. It's three times what we are doing right now. If we come closer and closer, then we will have to go to 0.4, 0.5, 0.6 and it starts to be not impossible, but unlikely, right? Because it's not even just one day. It has to be done. That type of return, we need to have it for many, many months in the road. So it's not excluded, it's just that right now it's different from what we have seen before. We, we never went. We never went above a power law during a bull run and then went down for an extended period of time. It did happen one time and it was just like a dip. And then we immediately went back almost like if it was not what bitcoin was supposed to do, right? Once you stay above a power law in a bull run, you stay above a power law. So it's a kind of a behavior between these cases where see this one went above the power law and then never corrected back. And see the power law is here until the the bull run was finished. This one didn't cross yet to a power law, but once he did it, it never came back. We are in a strange situation where we did cross the power low. Then we corrected and we didn't bounce back immediately. We stayed there for a long period of time. Now it seems from this recent activity that we are going back to the power law, maybe crossing it. And once we cross, maybe that is a real signal where we don't come back until the cycle is over. So this is all what I have to say now. You know, it's nice to see this convergency with the local liquidity. And to answer your question, I. I think by early January maybe this is something that Marcus can confirm by early January by looking how the liquidity look like. And I think we did that, that exercise and a center point offline with Marcus, it will have been clear that something was different. And we, we are going to have a correction and that will have been a very actionable item because you know, if we had a clear understanding that, because everybody was thinking, oh, we are going up, up, up, up, right? The bull market started, we are going to a million and so on. If we had that information, we could have use it, right? To maybe buy some options, you know, buy some puts or whatever. So it's very, very valuable information and should be integrated with everything else. But maybe Marcus. So Marcus, do you know, have you looked at it or did we have early signs looking at the local liquidity that I don't know, during, you know, just before that peak, you know, that peak we had in around January, we will have other correction. Is that correct?

Right?

Yeah. Asking Marcus. Yeah.

There are signs before you. You peek out. You. One of the signs is before you have a break, you. You're going to see that consolidate consolidation of liquidity, tighten up before. Because the price action is what creates that liquidity. And then that that big move up or down is, is based on the harvesting of it. So yeah, you definitely there. There are some confluences. What's beautiful. What's beautiful is how the liquidity matches up with the power law. I mean. Yeah, it does. Yep.

Yeah, there were a lot of convergence, even the global liquidity. Right. For months and months I was showing this chart where I was mentioning. I was see, this is not a shifted liquidity. It's just a model where there's, you know, basically I don't do the shift. I do something similar. It's a little bit more complicated model. I don't do the power law. The power law applies only over the last 10 years. I applied, I use all the data and I did a more complicated model. But it basically tell us the same thing that you know, every single time we had a bull run we add an excess of liquidity. You know, basically the purple line that is a price model based on liquidity without shift shows there was always some liquidity. Now with the shift and interpretation was could be that liquidity anticipated the motion of bitcoin in terms of a bull run. That is another possible interpretation. That is an interpretation that makes sense. Right. That first liquidity starts, initiates the bull run and then bitcoin follows. And you can see this happen every single time that we had a burn every single time we added this pattern.

And then it's almost like the money flow, you know that that's the money.

Flow coming in the money flow. It's the money flow. And we didn't have this this time, even have this time. And in fact, you know, this, what we had, we had that the price was correcting from these. See, it's not supposed to go there because it was too early to go above a power law. It corrected right. It's really cool. And the liquidity was going up. And so I was hoping that the two were crossing here, you know, and, and then bitcoin will have followed. And instead it didn't. And you know, I got some heat because people say well you know, this is no valid anymore. It's obsolete. We have the ETFs, we have a sailor. And in fact this, this, all these cool are being created by a combination of Trump election ETF seller. But every single time I did this kind of analysis, I will say I'm not sure if that is enough fuel. I'm not sure if that is enough fuel. And the same say was right because you know, then we added these. Basically the bull market didn't go anywhere. And we are having a further correction and maybe we need for liquidity to come up until we have all the right condition. Now, you know, where are these two things going to meet? That is more like June, but I think maybe it's going to happen sooner, right, that the market responds to the liquidity. But yeah, one should look not just at one chart, but many together and look at all these confluences. So it's actually great that we can also see the liquidity now, you know, the local liquidity, because that is more internal to what Bitcoin is doing at any particular moment, which think it's very, very valuable.

Another source of that M2, M3 money supply is going to be tethered to the interest rates in the central bank. What the Fed's going to do there, they need to start to inject more stimulus and easing. Once that easing policy kicks in, that's going to put that necessary liquidity that we need. Because right now with the interest rates high, they're not putting in the easing yet. So it's just amazing. It's amazing how all those things correlate, you know.

Absolutely, yeah. And so this is what we are trying to do here, to offer this multilayer picture where we look at many different angles and we are trying to keep it as scientific and as rational as possible. Because you know, a lot of people show different charts that are not so relevant, right? Even here I was joking about drawing lines by hand, but you know, that was no my intention to say, oh this line is really relevant, etc, it was just showing the general pattern that this was good, that was this correction. My interpretation of what happened here and why we have this cycle looks different is because the ETFs change a little bit, the rules overall, they are not going to change because that is one of the things that people mention all the time. All the ETF are going to break the Power Law. They are not. Because we are simply one of the other events that we need to. To scale up. Exactly like the Power Law says, we are scaling up, you know, the. All these events, in fact, even when we are going to have a real serious state intervention, you know, and they are going to create reserves because it's going to happen. But right now it's mostly symbolic what is happening. It's not happening yet at the level where the progression in scale predicts and even that will be still part of this scaling up, you know, will be the next scale, will be the next order of magnitude. So the ETFs were actually what we needed for this Power Law to continue because at a certain point individual cannot do it. We need institutional intervention for the power law to continue to go to, you know, 1 million, 10 million and so on. But what happened is locally they did disturb the usual cycle patterns. And what they did in particular was this injection of cash, right? There was a big ingestion of cash and then also the form of it follow the creation of ETFs. And so the two together push the price up too fast. It went above a power law. See, it kind of happened. Something similar happened also the last time there was another event related to some scam in China etc that you can link to this going up above a power law when it's not supposed to go above a power law. But notice what happened. We have Covid. So this is Covid. They kind of reset everything. So that is the event that we needed to. It's almost like a spring, right? If a spring goes much to in one direction, then you need a correction in the other direction. But it's kind of what also Marcus was explaining in his analysis of the local liquidity.

It's like, you know, science, you know, equal and opposite reactions, right? It's kind of like, you know, you might have localized weather which is unpredictable, right? We don't know what the weather is going to be tomorrow. But it doesn't stop the seasons from happening. The seasons, summer, winter, fall, it's going to happen. And everything else is just weather, local weather conditions, you know, noise, you know, vehicles.

Yeah, I love your analogies there. So exactly this is what happened, right? And this was a local weather that mess up with this, you know, season. And so it looks like weird and everything. So I don't think we are yet there yet where we can say, oh, the season are not going to happen. Because people, humanity likes cycles, right? Humanity like cycles. The cycles happen, you know, we have shown before. Let's see if I can find it. And then maybe Costa, you can tell us about the algo. But yeah, here you have this chart, right? This is what is called the manufacturing index, right? PMI Purchase purchase Manufacturing index and is another microeconomic quantity. See this is a purple line here is basically a survey that they send to all the manufacturers managers and be able to answer a bunch of questions. It's kind of a sentiment analysis about where the market is, how production is going, you know, how many orders we get, the cost of production. And notice how regular it is. And notice, see here is Bitcoin price with white line. How well it correlates with the laws. The laws in Bitcoin seems to be again happening a little Bit early. The same thing that we notice with global liquidity, where the peaks kind of anticipate, right. So, but here is very correlated with the pmi. And this is something that people have used for years to look for cycles in microeconomics. So bitcoin seems very alive. It has its own internal cycles because of a, of a halving but you know, aligns perfectly in terms of where everything happens with these cycles, these microeconomic cycles. And, and so I see here, made some notes here, I'm subtracting as always I do, to make it basically to make the price of bitcoin an oscillator, I subtract the power law. And now you're seeing in this lower panel, the red line is bitcoin and the green line is this pmi. And you see how well we correlate, right? The peaks here, peak here, peak here. And this is where we are and you know, they're kind of following each other. And I made this note because when people will say, oh, the ETFs change everything. Notice how since the TF were created, we are all following almost perfectly the APMI, you know, another microeconomic indicator. If anything, the PMI seems more bullish than bitcoin is. And so this maybe means that there'll be a correction up. But you know, the trend, if you think about trend, the trend is going up, right? It's supposed to go up here and in fact peak this year if, if this cycle maintain, you know, so it will not be just a question of bitcoin of following anymore the cycles, but also bitcoin not following these cycles. That seems to be established beyond the life of bitcoin because these cycles have been there even before bitcoin was created. So I think, I love a analogy that Marcus just mentioned. The seasons, yes, local weather can change, but you could have snow in May, you know, but in general the seasons are going to stay there, you know, long term type of pattern. So we will see, we will have to monitor and check. But. And this is why we have these meetings on a regular basis, try to figure out how things are happening. Marcus Costa, do you want to make some comments about the bot and how we can use these situations to actually still make money even when bitcoin doesn't go anywhere.

Yeah, so I think that's a good place to segue into kind of what we're doing. You know, a lot of people complaining right now that the market's not doing anything. What's fantastic about having a system like ours is that when the market's not doing anything. We're still able to trade, we're still able to generate some returns from the price action, whether it goes up, down or sideways. And the way we do it is with an algorithmic trading strategy. And what's really important as well is that like all these predictions that, that we're making now and we're looking at the seasons and the cycles, this all is going to enhance the returns. Bull market is always going to deliver better returns than a bear market. Right. But what a trading system we think that is robust needs is it needs to be price agnostic and also cycle agnostic. It needs to work no matter what happens in the market. And that's kind of what we focused on. I'm going to show you kind of how that works. Yeah. So I'm just going to bring up firstly this is basically what we're doing at the moment on our most conservative setup with the largest take profit. I've got two that I'm going to show you today because I, I've got more of a high frequency version with a lower tp. But this particular strategy as you can see here is still trading, it's still taking profits. The last time it took profit was on the 20th, around eight days ago. Average trading time or deal time on these strategies is around. On the, on the conservative safe, high TP strategies, around 13 days. I think eight days Sebastian is average for the strategy.

For the conservative strategy you're looking at an average of between 13 to 18.

Days to close the deal. So as you can see, here's another example. The market ranging, it takes a bit of time but the mark but the indicator here is very patient. It's waiting for the best buyers. I know Giovanni, during his testing of our algorithm which he did for many months. Maybe you can comment on this because this is a good example here and we spoke about this the other day. These kind of local bottoms here, the precision of the algorithm, maybe Giovanni is worth commenting on because I remember you were discussing this yesterday and what your thoughts were on this.

Yeah. So immediately, you know I have a many years of experience with trading algo I wrote myself many of them and it's not easy to find an algorithm. It is so consistent in finding this local bottoms because you usually most indicators are always delayed. So you know they kind of basically they react after the fact. You know, once we have a local bottom then they can detect it and they say oh you know, place your long here. I'm really impressed by just what we in physics we will call it Visual inspection. Right. You don't, you can always do a more complex analysis but after many years of data analysis you develop an eye to look for patterns that it's reliable. And you can see just by visual inspection that the algo knows what is doing is a little bit anticipating. In fact that is actually perfect where the bottom is local bottom is and it's very consistent and very precise. And, and and it shows also that this method is no A simple DCA down because a DCA down will happen automatically when certain average, certain percentages are reached. And that will be random. You, you will see these blue line, blue arrows everywhere randomly on the chart. And it's not random. It's very precise. It's almost methodically precise. Kind of almost where you will have place your trades by end after the fact. Right. I say oh we love put it exactly there. Right. Almost perfectly and not, not it cannot be perfect but very close. And same thing with the exit. I'm very impressed about the exit because it's exactly when you know you will want to because you still need some kind of confirmation. And yes maybe there is a little bit of a delay but it's very minimal.

Yeah, this, this one here actually is a trailing take profit which is interesting. So we've got a lot of features. You know one of the things that we call this is like a Swiss army knife. So as you can see if we make that slight change, remove the trailing take profit. You see we've got a fixed take profit at 5%. It's hitting it exactly the same top of that peak. So one of the way Marcus with these great analogies describe what we have is, is a Swiss army knife of an algorithm. So it's not something that's out of the box. You plug it in is that it can actually be refined and adjusted based on either our suggestions or what our clients want from it as well. Trailing take profits work really well when the market's really bullish. It sometimes on a like this you are going to miss on that exit but it will make up for it again. It's a, it's a personal decision for people to make and part of the services that we provide is guiding people through our consulting on, on you know, which elements they want to apply to the overall strategy. So that's just a good example.

Yeah, look at, look at that long there right on, on the seventh. It's, it's crazy how precise it is, you know. So I was very impressed. And then of course you know I did a calculations, I studied the Charts more carefully. But it was almost immediately obvious that this is. There is a lot of alpha in the algo, you know.

Great. And I've also got to run an example of the little bit more high frequency one. Show that here. So it doesn't matter what we do. We always. That looks good. Yeah. No matter what we do. The Power Law and Giovanni's work was the missing piece to an algorithm. Anyone can back test an algorithm and make the data fit, but it's working in real environments that is the most important thing. So the one thing that we've worked out or the one thing that we've processed with the Power Law is the support. It's really the most important thing to our trading system and it allows us to really define what we're going to be doing in the price range really from anywhere. Whether we drop down 55% from here or if we go up 200 from here, doesn't really matter. We're gonna be able to take advantage of that. What this Power Law bottom allows us to do is it allows us to create a well defined trading range and decide the point of when we're going to have to protect it. So these things are always going to get tested. Even though perhaps this one has hasn't in the past, it may well in the future. We just have to have an understanding that if we get close to this point here, that's a position where we want to start defending other trading systems where you can, you know, during a bull run you can maybe, you know, I think you've discussed having a system before where you can really jack up returns. But what happens if the, if the market goes against you? What do you do? You start defending at points that shouldn't. So by having this powerful support, it really does create a very well defined area for us to trade in.

Yeah, sorry for a moment we miss your graph. You want to. We heard you about that. Yeah, it was my fault. Activated. Go back up.

Yeah. Just the power.

Right?

Yeah, we can see it. Yeah. So like I said, it doesn't matter what the price action is going to do. We're protecting expected. It goes up. It's always easy to make money when the market's going up. Problem is, what do you do when the market does something unexpected? So, you know, for example, if we do hit the top, what we're always doing with our clients, especially our new clients, is that we're all going to make sure that the worst we look at this is not the worst case scenario for the market to, to correct 65 we expect the market to correct 65. Right. So that's basically our out of the box settings is we're looking for a situation for like this to occur and we're training and consulting with our clients for them to understand that this situation probably will occur. And what. And the bot's actually going to be able to handle it very, very well. And also if it does break below the support, what you can do in order to protect it, because there's lots of things that you can do as well. As long as Bitcoin stays above this range, it's kind of like party time. You're going to make money no matter what. And I can show you an example of an algorithm, a version of the algorithm that we're running, just a slightly tighter range and a smaller tp. You can see here just how much more activity there is. And it doesn't really matter what the market is doing, you're going to be able to generate returns. So this one here is far more active. Average trade deals around, you know, this one here is four days.

Hey, I don't have this one. Can you activate mine?

So this one still operates the same, just a tighter take profit, you see here. The take profit on this one one is around 2% and it's still making the same technicals, the same good positions, as you can see there, just taking a lot more profit. Yeah, again, it really depends on what our clients want out of the algorithm. Again, we offer consulting that goes along with everything that we do. So our system is really set up for people that it's plug and play and you don't need to have any experience trading. We've done all the thinking and all the calibrating. It's just a matter of working out how you want it set up. Sebastian, did you want to add anything to that?

Yeah, just a quick thought as well. But you know, this is something that's going to be run alongside our main primary conservative strategy. So I think it's important to understand that there's no limit to what you can do with your portfolio. And technically, if you wanted to split your portfolio into four, five, six different strategies, you can do that as well. And, you know, all of a sudden you've got something very powerful where you've got the bulk of your strategy running something that is, you know, taking a little bit longer to trade, but much more calculated and swinging. And then you have another algorithm that's taking advantage of more of a tighter range market with a tighter TP able to get in and out. So really by doing that you're setting yourself up to trade the best of both worlds. Having something that is going to be slow but making really, really solid profit on the upside. When we get exit relief rallies, then you also have something that can just almost scalp in and out of the price action. And having these two things harmonized and in synergy, it's a really beautiful thing to watch. So you know, this is just one of the ways we, we can manage the capital in a portfolio and disperse it in an efficient way.

Yeah. Another thing I just kind of wanted to add on a bigger scale is.

That.

Doing this kind of trading shouldn't replace anything. It's something in addition to what you're doing, it's just a tool. Bitcoin and its volatility gives us an opportunity to do something right. And that opportunity is a few things. Like what Giovanni is doing is he's got some bitcoin that he's able to put on an exchange. I don't know. Finance has a multi commodities wallet where you can use Bitcoin as collateral the same as Bybit, which is what we use. By using your Bitcoin as collateral, you're able to trade futures contracts, a portion of that Bitcoin. You're not trading that bitcoin, you're actually borrowing against it effectively. If you can earn 1, 2, 3% a month from algorithmic trading, it's basically creating a kind of yield in theory on that bitcoin which I know we've discussed with Giovanni. It almost makes the returns of bitcoin go back rewind to like 2017 levels. Because if you add the bitcoin appreciation plus the 1 to 2 to 3% yield that you're getting per month from the algorithm and you can, yeah, talk about that Giovanni, for a second, doesn't it?

Yeah, exactly. So first thing, right, I know that there are a lot of people that are, they have this odling philosophy, almost like a religion. Right? And we are not against that. All of us here are huddlers. We have most of our assets in bitcoin. It's just that we have a more flexible understanding of this. Instead of making it a religion, we are thinking, look, you know, we have these assets that is going to grow over time. You know, if a, in particular, if a power law is true, it's going to be $10 million in 20 years from now. But at the same time, you know, we don't have any more that crazy growth that we experience. For example, when I, when I went in, you know, it was 12 years ago, Bitcoin was doing literally crazy things, you know, and if we added this kind of algorithms, it will have been asserted like for example, I had an algorithm that did six pair in one single month during the bull run of 2017. I mean any bot will have done very, very well at that time, six times relatively to Bitcoin. I could multiply my bitcoin, whatever. I was testing it. So I didn't put all my bitcoin there, but it's okay, right? You can take a small amount of your assets, maybe up to 10% or whatever, and then you're not selling it. That is the beauty. This is what attracted immediately towards this system because they explained, you know, it was explained to me that I was not going to sell and trade my bitcoin. I was going to use them as a collateral. Well, you're using bitcoin as a collateral and basically using margin and you're trading futures and, and then whatever additional gain you get, it's in addition to the growth of Bitcoin or if bitcoin has a correction, it's a way of compensating a little bit that correction, then you can use this bitcoin even when we go down and we have some gains. Because you know, every time there is a little bit of a, of a recovery, you're, you know, you're closing your position and making money. You can use that to buy bitcoin. And in fact, if it is at a lower price now you're buying bitcoin at a lower price. So you know, instead of just do and you can continue to do all the other things that you are doing, like buying for example, bitcoin, right. So on a regular basis. But now you have more money that you could use as a collateral to do this thing. So it's not against what most bitcoin bitcoiner believe because you have to understand Costa could apply this if he was just after any type of, let's say, you know, selling just based on selling. He could use it for a spy, he could use it for nasdaq. He is very focused on doing a service for bitcoiners because we all are bekoiners and we think this strategy actually works best for bitcoin. But you know, that is the idea of it. It's a tool. You need to understand it as a tool. It's a tool for bitcoiners to get more Bitcoin. And if you can have both, where you have a long term, you know, strategies of oddling plus a little Bit where you take a little bit of risk and instead of doing stupid things like meme coins, you know, that is based on nothing and it doesn't help, you know, Bitcoin anyway. You're doing something to help of liquidity because you're participating to the liquidity of bitcoin and gaining from that, right? So actually that's a really good point.

That we're trying to get across to people, is that there is still the opportunity to make really good gains from bitcoin without having to do anything degen.

Right?

You can scientific, you can be focused, you can be smart and you can make. You can put your bitcoin to work and you can. And you can increase your percentage returns compared to just sitting there and buying and holding. And like Giovanni said, like, you don't need to use all your bitcoin, just take a portion of it or just use cash. You can trade just with USDT if you want to earn some income passively. The point is, is what we're trying to make is that like you can actually avoid everything else, right? Meme coins, crypto, everything else. Just focus all your energy on bitcoin. Use the right tools. If you include an algorithmic trading system with the cycle theory that Giovanni talks about, the returns literally blow anything out of the water. And you don't have to do any kind of really crazy speculation. I know a lot of people that bought meme coins six months ago. Well, they're all down 90, 95%. They held too long. I don't think that if bitcoin gets to 200k, I don't think there's going to be a big recovery on a lot of those coins. I think that's for that. I mean, there's enough money in the, in the market at the moment for that to happen. So, you know, if you weren't able to, you know, dump your coins on someone else, you're kind of screwed, right? Or you do what we do, just stick with bitcoin. And the best thing is that if you make a mistake, time will heal it, right? Bitcoin always is higher than it was after a certain amount of time. So you can actually make mistakes and the mistakes will fix themselves again without doing any kind of crazy stuff. This is. It's almost like you have, like, if you screw up, you get a second chance and a third chance and a fourth chance to make your money back. And that's really like, Marcus can talk about this. Man, we've all done crazy things and we've all been wrecked before. But bitcoin is really forgiving in the way that look at the power law. It's going up over time. Be smart, don't. Sometimes you can just sit on your hands and, you know, it corrects itself and you end up back in profit. I don't know if any of you guys want to comment on that.

Yeah, well, I'll quickly jump in as well. But I think these are really important notes because to have something that's forgiving in the most unforgiving wild west finance space on earth, one is like really unique. But I think also just my little quick point here is for anyone that has been in this market for a really long time, what you'll notice is the market outside of bitcoin works with a lot of hype and cycles. And first it was the ICO boom, right? And then it was the defi boom, and then it was altcoins going absolutely bananas. And then it was NFTs and yada yada, different sorts of things playing out when in reality you have the tools to still get amazing gains just using bitcoin. Something that's been there the whole time and is tied, tried, tested and true. So it's important to remember that as well because these sorts of things are always going to come up in the crypto space, right? And it's important to just note that you don't need to delve into high risk scenarios and you don't need to put risk on your bitcoin to get really good yield. I think people just need to realize as well, like we're in 2025 now. Bitcoin is not like it was when it was at $20. And people need to realize that as well. You know, I think buying and holding Bitcoin is the best thing you can do, but you still have this vehicle to leverage that and get a really amazing return without taking a lot of risk. And in the crypto market that is almost impossible, I can promise you that now, because most things are going to be high risk, high reward kind of scenario, more often than not, losing whatever you put in.

I like it. Very good. Thank you, Sebastian.

I want to take some questions.

Yes, let's look at some questions and then.

I, I want to comment on one of them. The one about the, the no cycles. I think people have to understand that the cycle is also driven by, by leverage. Right? Marcus has said this a lot, that the price is discovered in the derivatives market and the reason we think cycling continues to exist is that this market is going to become over leveraged. As, as, as, as the price increases, which we all wanted to, and the price increases, the leverage is going to go up. The increased leverage is going to eventually create a crash. Right. Any market that has this kind of volatility that is appreciating in price at a certain rate is going to attract more and more and more leverage building up until it pops. This is just like standard stuff. So this whole idea that there's going to be like a little leg up followed by sideways, a little leg up followed by sideways forever and ever, which is one of the questions I think is highly unlikely, if not impossible in a highly leveraged market.

Yeah, it's not unlikely. It's literally impossible because it assumes that no one will ever sell. Which one means the market, no one's.

Going to use more and more leverage.

Right?

Yeah.

And that's right. And also, just so everyone knows, if the market goes up for forever, that is like the most unnatural, unhealthy thing that could ever happen for a market. A market cannot just keep going up. That's really a bad thing and not possible.

Marcus wants to comment on that. The, the leverage in the cycles and the bubbles.

Yeah, it's a natural action. That's what recessions are. They're just points of recess where it recedes. Right. It's a nat. It's a necessary. You get a natural buildup of liquidity, just like you said, a natural buildup on one side or the other that has to be corrected. It's just a natural process. The good news is there are certain things that are certain. Right. Our physics are certain. Like you can look at the US Economy. GDP is it goes up over time. The stock market goes up over time. Bitcoin goes up over time. Those are the things that you can sleep at night, you can bet your future on because they go up over time. So the liquidity, harvesting over leverage, corrections, that's just part of the natural process that when you zoom out, you can hardly notice those things because they go up over time. That's the magic. That's the, that's the whole essence of it. It goes up over time. So just stay in the game and let the cycle and let the direction of the asset take care of itself. It's very easy. It's not complicated.

Yeah, it's a really good point, Marcus. I think in a lot of ways, for most investors, the most powerful thing you can do is stay, stay off looking at the price as much as you possibly can. Right, Marcus? Because in the end, it paints a skewed picture. Of what's really happening in reality.

Yeah, yeah. What's what? Yeah, exactly. So it's that weather, you know, this, it doesn't stop the cycles, right. Rain, it might. Yeah.

So yeah. And to answer this question that I think think it's only one of a few, only relevant questions at this point. You know, I mean it's never nice to talk about other analysts in a negative fashion. Checkmate is usually is a very good analyst. He does a good work. And here and there we do disagree on certain things. I think is calling the end of cycle too early. You know, there are signs that we are not doing exactly what we did before. But like we discussed, right. We spent quite a bit of time explaining it's different. But there is not yet any conclusive data to say we don't have a cycle. Right. How we know if we don't have a cycle? Well, first of all, one big critical point will be the end of this year. If by the end of this year we are now at least I will say 50 away from the power law, then I will say, well, you know, it was a muted cycle, you know, we'll still be a relatively large deviation. So it depends how far away Right now if we are below the power law and it's the end of the year, we don't have a, we didn't have a cycle like at least with traditional type of cycle some people talk about this extended cycle to me is nonsense because bitcoin has been so precise in its cycles that if we have a cycle that happens, you know, a peak of a cycle that happens two years from now, it's not a cycle anymore, you know, it's something else. But you know, the bottom line will still be that bitcoin follows the public law. And until we have strong, strong evidence that that doesn't happen, that should be the underlying assumption because Bitcoin has done it for 15 years. The cycle, remember, are limited event that happened over a limited period of time. The overall growth of Bitcoin goes all the way to the first transactions. You can show that first transactions actually fall on the power law. And we use the beginning, you know, the beginning, the genesis block as a starting power point for the power law. Everything is anchored to that. So the power law is probably the strongest. It's like the backbone of Bitcoin. We don't have any evidence that that is violated. In fact, if anything, we are following it too closely. So that is our point of reference. The other point of reference is the support line. That is actually what the Monitor system is using to structure how is doing these DCA trades. So all these elements will continue to exist and in the meanwhile, you know, if. Yes, the cycles, if you could time it properly, are an incredible opportunity. Right. Because I have mentioned so many times you sell at the top, not everything, again, a small portion and then you buy at the bottom. If that doesn't happen anymore and we cannot time it correctly, we still have all these. In fact, these tools that we are presenting are going to be even more relevant, not less relevant. Right, they're going to be more relevant because this will be the. Basically one of a few things, maybe together with options etc, to actually use the liquidity, you know, the volatility of Bitcoin in your favor. And so you don't have simply to buy more Bitcoin, you can also use the property of bitcoin if you do it smartly to have more and more bitcoin over time. That is the goal. So I, I think check Matey is, you know, he's saying these. I don't know why, but it's too early to tell. I. I don't.

Hey, hey, Giovanni. Just to add to what you're saying and to. I don't know much about Checkmate, but from a liquidity standpoint, you know, all, all the power law is doing is it's measuring large long term price action. It's just long term price action. That's what a cycle is, right? The market is fractal. It does the same thing at one month candles, weekly candles, daily candles, hourly candles, five minute candles, one minute candles, and so on and so forth. They all behave the same. The market is fractal. So when we talk about cycles, we're just talking about long term price action, right?

Yeah.

So.

So drilling down from there, when we look at liquidity, right, Liquidity gets formed above and below price action. So before a market can reverse and go in the other direction, it has to take out the liquidity on the opposite side. So for example, if we're taking out the long now, we can't just continue going in that direction.

We got.

We have to first go up and take out the short. And if the cycle is going to end, it's going to end after that event. So this cycle has an extremely high probability of not terminating until we take out the short side liquidity first, which goes to 130, 125, 130, 140 somewhere in there. We take that out now, we're not guaranteed to continue to push up from there. But if the cycle is going to end. It is an extremely high probability that that has to happen after the equity on the opposite side is taken. You don't continue to take liquidity on the same side. Markets take one side, the other side. So for a cycle to reverse, it has to take out the opposite liquidity first. So that's. That's my 2 cents there on that.

Yeah, I think a lot of people are making predictions and I won't drag Giovanni into this, but like we're thinking that based on the work that we're doing with the liquidity heat maps is that there's. We would say that there's an extremely high probability. Probability that the price will reach between 130 to 140 at least minimum. And it will probably take the next, what, 90 days to get there or something like that. If we're to make a prediction, that would be it. Giovanni, we won't include in that because you can get held accountable to prediction.

Too many predictions, you know, by our law alone, we should be 130 by the end of here. And so it's a question, are we going to stay correct? Love a power law or above a power law. Because even if we are slightly above, that is your 140 anyway.

Right.

But, you know, there are a lot of signs. They're saying, you know, we need to collect a little bit more liquidity, both local. We need to have a support of a global liquidity because, you know, these are money moves and these patterns are still there. So it's mostly a question of these very, very precise patterns, cycles that we saw before in bitcoin that end always in quarter four, that have this very precise decay. Now that happened for 15 years. Now, I actually like what Marcos was saying that even in terms of a power law, I think the cycle that we observe, they can be understood as independent, but also as part of this overall fractal behavior. Because. And we also analyze that with the physics of Bitcoin where we are saying, you know, after all, there are really two modes. There is Bitcoin when it's below the power, below the middle power law. When that happens, if you exclude the bubbles, Bitcoin is like crazily precise. It's narrow in between a very, very small region. You know, it has a Gaussian distribution and it's very, very, very precise. I mean, if you think of a bubble, looks like a straight line in a log, log plot, like something that you almost don't see even in physics. So that that is established and it will be Very, very difficult to change that now. Recycle maybe there are another expression where, you know, once in a while you need some kind of stress relief or something, right? The market needs to have these very wild deviations because once all that liquidity is a basically, you know, also what we call the stacking or you know, building your position. So when, when you have that liquidity that is taken out, right, you need to have some kind of. People want to see gains coming out of that, right, by buying Bitcoin. And so because of many different things that whales can do with the market, they push it up or down accordingly. And so this where the bubbles happen. And plus they are timed with some of these long term macroeconomic cycle. But I don't think are going to disappear, you know, because bitcoin simply writes them, you know, it's not that creates his own liquidity cycle by itself, right? It's not disconnected with the overall world. So it's mostly a question of how precisely these cycles will continue to be. Are they going to be so regular, are they going to be extended a little bit? Maybe we don't have any more a peak in quarter four now. We are going to have a, a peaking quarter one of next year. It didn't happen before, but it could happen. So anybody that says these cycles are over, I think we are wrong, but we will see.

And to add to that, why would you want the cycles to be over unless you are already holding more bitcoin than you could ever possibly want to own? The cycles are your opportunity to create more wealth over time, right? If we go to 444,000 this cycle and then what? And then we're going to crash 20% and go to a million the next cycle. Well, you just, you just ran out of time, right? You want to be buying now. You want to, you want to create tools and find tools that are going to let you multiply your holdings now. And you want to stretch that over a ten year period, right? If your goal is to create generational wealth and do all that, you don't want this thing to run up too quick. You want it to be boom bust. You want it to have extensive corrections. You want to be smart. You want to go start a business where you can generate cash flows. You want to get an algorithm working for you to generate you more cash flows. You want to be, you want to be using cycles and, and Giovanni as a way to know when you should be buying and perhaps when you should be selling as well, right? You're going to be multiplying that over 10 to 20 years and then you're good. Right. If you're going to run it from now to 444 and then to a million, the only person that's going to get rich is Michael Saylor because he's got the most bitcoin. You're gonna have to find something else to retire your ain't gonna happen if it happens.

You can't think short.

Yeah, I think a lot of people are concerned when they don't like the idea of a cycle. There is both direction. Everybody gets excited when there is a bull run. And I think under that condition there is this very weird thinking that the Buran will last forever. Right? There are some. Yeah. And the FOMO puts you in that place where you think, oh, it's just, you know, it's just an evidence. In fact, you know, some people even make jokes about oh, we are breaking the power law because we are in a bull run. Well, we know that, right? It's just temporary. But they think that the bull run will continue forever and in and it just physically impossible. Marcus even explained how that cannot happen. You know, markets do not work like that. The other is, you know they are when people don't like recycles is because they are afraid of that huge 80% corrections that we added the past. Now that huge 80% correction were from this huge big bull run. If we don't have them, if we don't have a, you know, a 10 pair move up or even a two pair move up, we are not going to have huge big correction. We are going to have correction though, because you need them again for the market to function. You know, maybe we are not going to be 50, we are going to be 20, you know, but we are going to have and, and again the fact that these liquidity, these volatility flight are now there anymore make it more urgent to find other ways of still using the incredible bitcoin volatility. Because bitcoin is still more volatile than anything else. It is one of the reasons why, you know, Wall street likes microstrategy because microstrategy gives access to bitcoin bitcoin volatility through more traditional tools. That is one of the reasons, you know, that in fact is the only reason. Why do you think that people in Wall street are interested in being big, you know, long term holders of bitcoin? They are not, they are not thinking about that at all. It's differently from the average bitcoiner. They want to use the volatility. They are smart, they want to leverage that volatility. And this is what MicroStrategy does. But you know, yes, you can buy MicroStrategy, you can do option etc, but also there are tools like these that are available where you do the same thing. You're basically leveraging bitcoin volatility.

Good point, good point.

Anyway, guys. Yeah, Marco, so you were trying to say.

No, I was saying actually Michael Saylor, he gives a nod to science and physics when he says Bitcoin is energy, you know.

Oh yeah, absolutely.

It's just basically just you're harnessing the power of energy.

So.

Yeah, and this is what also is our point of reference. Because bitcoin being a different type of asset that is based on real physics differently. People get it wrong when they say on what bitcoin is based. Like it is no base anything. Well, on a tone, one of the most valuable thing for modern civilizations, it is energy, you know, to this energy production. And that's where.

Yeah, not earnings.

Or something that you can actually measure and it gives. This is where the support line is, by the way, that support line. Why that support line is not just an imaginary line. It's physics. It's based on physics. That support line is the cost of production of bitcoin in. You know, you convert it from energy to actually how much that energy cost. This where that support line comes from. So having a trading system that is based on that physical constraint, it's unique. You don't find that anywhere else. No, it doesn't exist. Because even gold, you know, the cost of production can change. It depends on new machines, you know, depends on new extraction technology. It depends on demand actually. Bigger the demand, smaller is the cost and the vectors end up with bitcoin because of the difficulty adjustment. You know, Shytoshi was a genius. You know, if there is an increased demand, it. The difficulty goes up and it keeps the cost of production constrained within certain levels, you know. So it's. It's an amazing system. It's a unique system and having anything that can use both the long term trajectory and the local liquidity and the local volatility, it's amazing. I think this is just, just the perfect combination. Anyway guys, I think we cover a lot of. We are more than one hour and we can do this again next week. So thank you so much.

Good time. Giovanni.

Sounds good.

Thank you guys, Everybody and the Q2 viewers.