Bitcoin Live with the Power Law & Minotaur Team, #26 11/27/2025

This is the Bitcoin live show. I am here with the Manotar team. We are back from a big break. I was in Europe traveling everywhere for conferences and other meetings. So we kind of had maybe just one event while I was away. But the intention is to go back on a regular basis and keep going, keep, keep doing this analysis. Because a lot of people were asking me where in particular, where is Marcos and these liquidity analysis, you know. So we are back. Okay, so we can start looking at the charts. And let me show you this chart that is the most common chart. Simple, the simplest possible charts. Because they're kind of going back to basic physics. Okay. So there are many charts that people use. I actually I'm seeing the power law became more and more popular are days because almost everything else failed. And the power law is still going. So I have pure observations. First of all, okay, this is. I call this simple power law chart. It's the simplest possible chart. Later we can. In other times we can look at more complicated charts. But let me close this one. Okay. All right. And it has the main power law. And I know that people use stuff that they find online. I will discourage people. I mean, even if it is good with other people are trying to replicate the results. But some of these charts are not really. They say the official one. This is pretty official, you know. And it's simple one. It. It features the main power law that is this red line and then it has this lower line that is what we call the support. You can calculate the support in different way. The simplest possible way basically is like it's about 60% from a red line. Notice with these white line as kind of indicated the bottom of many cycles. Here we were a little bit higher and we had the Kovid that actually touched with support line. When we were a $16,000, you know, four years ago. We were kind of touching that and we stay there for quite a bit. So everybody is familiar with what happened. You know, we had an etf a push the price up. Everything seemed to look. Everything seemed very similar to the previous bull run where in fact I even predicted. This was interesting because I was challenged to predict end of the year price for bitcoin. And that was away from. From that real price by $400. I say 97 and in fact it was 97, 400 at midnight here in San Diego. So everything say. And I did that using basically the power law. I didn't guess it. I made a calculation. I knew that at the end of. At the beginning of November, the Buran was supposed to start. I made a, you know, a good estimate of how far we will be from, you know, the bottom. Given that we started the bull run and I got it right. What I didn't foresee was this correction. You know, this was an strange correction because it never happened. Usually when we cross with our law during a bull market, we stay there. Now this is under the assumption we stay above a red line until we reach a peak. We made a prediction based on the decay from the previous peaks that the top was supposed to be in the 200k that didn't materialize. And you know, we can do a postmortem and see why that didn't happen. But the interesting thing is that when we recover from these correction, then we went back to the power law and notice many people say, oh, we didn't do anything for one year. It's not true. We actually, for the entire year we follow the power law. We follow a power law growth. It's a slow growth in comparison with what people expected because we were expecting a bull run and us going to the 200k, but we still went along with power loss. So it's, it's a consistent growth. Right. If we continue to follow the power law of a long term, we will do close to 10 pair in eight years and under a pair in 20. So, you know, this is what, it's why the, the model is becoming popular, because it's giving, you know, people went from being super bullish to be bearish. And actually this give us kind of a sense of direction and maybe even hope. Right. Notice what is also interesting. Even after we added this Correction to the 90s, right. Notice how these several months. Let's see what it is. It's from kind of November all the way to January. For all this time we follow again the power law. Even if we were not on top of a reference line, this line is parallel to it. And notice even this is parallel. So even when we have correction, we tend to continue to grow from that place along the power law. That is really interesting. Anyway, so why we didn't have a the top that we were expecting long time ago, before I kind of settled on the four year cycle, I propose that these tops are long periodic. You will have to see the show that we did yesterday. It's called the physics of Bitcoin. Related with my colleague Stephen Perino and he kind of revisited this theory that the bubbles are not periodic. Instead we are log periodic. Right? This is a possible hypothesis. There are others. Log periodic means that the distance between the peaks becomes longer and longer. So we were not supposed to have a bubble according to that approach. These, you know, the. At the end of 25, we are supposed to have a top in 27. You can, you can look at the show, you can look at Stephen work is kind of revised, revising and improving what they proposed like six, seven years ago. That is a possible interpretation. Right. We. The problem is that we don't have a lot of this bubble to make very good predictions. You know, the power law is made of thousands of points. We only have three bubbles. So predicting the bubble has been always a difficult job. Right. It is a fact. We didn't go in bullish territory. And now it looks like we are in a bearish situation. Right. We didn't reach the bottom of this white line. We are here, okay? So we need to understand what is going on, where we are going, etc. So, but I think the big picture remains the same. The power law is still valid because even if we don't follow exactly the red line, the overall trajectory is intact. If you calculate all the parameters, like R square, for example, will tell us how good the model is. It's one of the way to calculate it. That number is increasing right now we are close to 0.97. That means the power law explains 97 of Bitcoin behavior. So that number is increasing instead of decreasing. But you know, it's. Some people were really disappointed that we did not have a bubble. The bubble was supposed to be anyway a factor of only 80% away from the power law. And that put us at 200,000 reach 126. So anyway, this is mostly what I wanted to say looking at the power law. And maybe Marcos has some deeper insights looking at liquidity. So I leave a floor to Marcus.

Okay, let me share my screen. All right, let's take a look at the real.

Okay.

What a difference a day makes, right? All right, let's see how we got here. It's quite obvious that we are in a significant bear phase or bear market. And let's identify how we got here, how low we can go, and how long will we be here. All right, so really briefly, we're still pretty much attached to this. This profile of this value area that goes back to. We entered in here in 2020 at the end of 2024. So all of 2025 and beginning 2026, we've been in this large range here, this major macro value area volume profile. So one thing I wanted to clarify here to make pretty Clear is when we were in the expectation going to 200k we were stealthily in what's considered to be a model one distribution right here. This is where the institutions are actually selling their positions off. And while everybody was looking for 200k and 150 and beyond, the institutions were unloading supply here. And it's easier to see in hindsight this is actually a separate liquidity pool. And this one is separate. It kind of looks like one gigantic pool, but it's actually two. And when this one was taken, that was your top. And we had the evidence of that top that even I didn't call. I was got caught up in the hype as well. But it was clearly right there. Okay, so then the market likes to rhyme. So I'm just going to draw some consolidation points out right here. We had a consolidation here after liquidation event. Then we discovered by displacing liquidity and created another consolidation point. Then we displaced again and created about a hundred day consolidation right here. This is a deviation above the macro range. Then we displaced down after another liquid liquidity liquidation event and we created about a two month consolidation right here. Then we discovered lower recently and we took out the last of the major pools and now we're consolidating here. So the point that I want to make here is this was a deviation outside the macro range here and we're deviated outside the macro range here. This is the value area low of the range, the value area high. This is fair value. So we're just replicating what we did at the top at the bottom. So I just want to make that clear. You can see it even clearer when you take off the liquidity. So just to give some context, me remove that now. So let's drill in and look at the liquidity that we've taken. As you can see, when the market displaces these liquidities, I'm going to just highlight the five so we can see it a little clearer. When it displaces these pools. It takes it with serious prejudice, serious vengeance. And then after a major displacement of this, this massive amount of liquidity in each one of these liquidation pools, we go into a consolidation, these beautiful consolidation patterns and they last for about two to three months each time we do that. So we are in one now. So we've removed all of the. There's basically when you look at the liquidity is on the board. We we beautifully came and we took out the 3 and 5x combination almost to the dollar and there's not much Liquidity left beyond that. There's just a little bit down here. It starts at about 50 and it ends at about 44. We'll get to that in a minute. We'll come back to that. So this last liquidation event, major liquidation event, we're consolidating. So how long will we be here? We will be here. This we'll just measure off the similar one here. This one lasted for about 70 days. So we'll go 70 days from here. We're only about 12 days into it so far. 15 days now. So 70 puts us at about the end of a. End. So about May right here. So we can look to be in this range here till that time. There is a volume profile here. There's a high and a low. So we would look to be in this range. Here's the range low. We'll get to that in a second. So then we can look to start moving up as new liquidity comes in. Then we can start looking to move up and move back into this macro range again. There's also a ton of liquidity here as well that's already here. So we can expect to probably start moving in early. Early, early, early to mid fall. Probably getting back to our original fair value of the macro, probably October. So we'll be in this range. We can look to be in this range for, for a couple of months here. The good news is this is an optimum time to buy. I put some spot orders on right here at 60k. I got some fills there. So you're going to have plenty of time to get those credit card offers, those business cards, get those loans, sell some, sell some items, raise some money because you're going to have plenty of time to be accumulating Bitcoin at low prices. This is as good as it's going to get for quite a while. Give it a year. A year from now we won't even be. This will be a memory. This is some really good prices also. Just I wanted to highlight something else here. We're currently in a range from 2024. We've had a about a nine month range that we were in and we've revisited that range. There's an older profile here and we're inside of the value area of that profile. There's a fair value that's running in the middle here. So we're inside of this profile and what tends to happen is when you get in these profiles you rotate through the profile. So there's a low here that's going to be incoming at some point at about 57k. I'm gonna purchase some more spot bitcoin here at this value area low of this range. And then that may be the bottom, you know, just to go out on a limb and call it. Once we rotate through this range, we're already in it because here's the range. High is a value area, low point of control. Once we get under this point of control and rotate through the range and come back up and start preparing to move out of here, we probably. It's a high probability that we sweep this, this low down here at 57. That may be the end. That may be all we need to get out of here. This area here, there is some liquidity. If you notice this is. This liquidity down here is diminished.

Screen up a bit, Marcus, because our faces are hiding.

Yeah,

yeah. This lower level down here, there is some liquidity on the map. But if you notice it's. It's been diminishing over time. This has been dissipating, but there is some down here. But there's. Right now there's no fuel to get here. And then the market, as it ranges, it will build in some liquidity. And we'll have to assess that when we get here. But we've already done two consolidations to the downside. The next probable one will be up, not a third one down. So there's a high probability that this level won't be tapped because it's been around for a long time. It was formed in April of 2024 and it's already diminishing. So there's a high probability that we don't have to come down here. The power law is ahead of this level. So if we do, it may be a very brief wick, but the most logic one here is at 57. That's the low I'm looking at. Take it level to level. This is the one that's in play right now. It may be a month from now or a few weeks before we get here, but that's the one. And that's kind of what we're looking at right now is a good golden opportunity to get some Bitcoin as super, super discount prices as good as you're going to see for quite a while, if ever.

So just to ask you a question, Mark, a lot of people are looking at. They're using past drawdown and maybe this is a question for you, Angiovanni. You know, they're looking at past drawdown percentages and all this kind of probabilistic data, but what we're seeing here is the end of the 3x liquidity pool. So the reality is that there's. There's not much fuel to drive this further down unless we build that liquidity. Right.

So.

Right.

I guess the question is, and Giovanni as well, is that comparing, comparing past drawdowns in the situation we're in is maybe just as silly as, as sort of. Well, you know, we predicted tops that didn't happen based on past history. Is predicting the bottoms 30k, 20k bass based on past history just as same. But we really should be looking at the reality which is this liquidity. Just wondering what?

Well, no, okay. The tops, I always say, right. People want to listen just partially what we have said so many times. We're not saying these things based on sentiment or basing saying these things based on math. We always say very clearly that the tops is a difficult business for different reasons. Right. One, we have only three of them. So if you want to do statistics on three, you can. I always say in theory you can. You know, you have a three events, right? Imagine somebody knocks on your door 5:00 clock every day. It. It happens the first time, it's random. Second time, three times, it becomes a pattern, right? Now is it a statistically strong pattern now? Because you need hundreds of events like that, right? But these are all what we add. So if you wanted to say, well, are we expecting another bubble after this particular period, etc, you can try to make a guess. We did. It was also a decay of these peaks, right? They start. They went down in a precise fashion and, and that is actually creating some kind of a limit of how big the bubble was. I always discuss it as a limit. It actually was a warning to people that claim, oh, bitcoin will reach 500,000. I remember somebody was profitizing. 444k became like a meme. And I was saying, no, it's, it doesn't seem likely, right? At Most we got 200k. People didn't understand it like that. It was, was no a guarantee that we will go there. It was if we go anywhere, at most we go to 100k that that is all what we could do. So it's, you know, even if these things didn't come up exactly like we predicted, we had all this warning from the beginning that these were rough guesses were an attempt to make sense of what was going on. Now we did have a peak in October, but more, more or less where people were saying we were going to have a peak, it was 126. Now the bottom. We always say the bottom is a completely different type of behavior and very stats to prove it. You can show that we never cross that line. For example, you can. You can talk about how it is associated with the energy cost. There is a. For example, 1. One of the things you can do, you can take ashrate and make a model that is a power law model of price based on ashrate and you get more or less the bottom, what we call the bottom. So that plays. Has a different significance, a different meaning than the tops. And it also makes sense because bottoms are much more predictable. Like with market is exhausted. There are. There is a problem with the cost of production of miner. Miners don't want to sell when they are at a loss, you know. So there are. It's really, if you understand it, the significance of the bottom is a completely different business. And this why stays a point of reference and is a very strong point of reverence. Now it's possible that when we look at liquidity chart they give us more information. There is a confirmation that yes, red bottom is meaningful too, even from a liquidity point of view. Do you see any evidence, for example that I. It seemed like you were confirming, right. That there is no match liquidity below 60k. Right. This is what you were saying, Marcus?

Yeah, there's not much there. There's no fuel to go lower right now.

So it's a. There is a convergence of signals. Right. That is a good thing because you never want to stick to one signal. You want to look at many different things. This is why the liquidity chart is nice when it aligns with some of the power law predictions. Right. Does. Does it answer your question, Costa observation?

It doesn't and. Sorry, my camera's playing up today. Oh, there we go. What I'm seeing is on the Bitbo power law, which is the one inspired by yourself, the bottom is marked at 57k exactly on that one as the power law support.

Well, it's nice that there are these resources. I will say to people not to use things that are not sponsored by us. Right. Because people can do their own calculation, verification. But there is a reason why, you know, we don't have a. Let's say, you know, like a old on mat. But we do a lot of work to make sure of it. The calculations are precise and supported and so on. So we have these indicators, you know, people can subscribe to the official indicators that we are producing. I can put like a link where people can find them eventually. We are working also this initiative that I Announced it in my other channels. It's called the Scientific Bitcoin Institute. And it will be a place where not just me, but other people will work on the Power Law and we create all kind of resources and eventually we will have a chart that we could say is the official Power Law chart. But it's a work in progress right now. But yes, roughly, the support is there, right? Is. For example, my chart indicates that we are talking about 55. This is where the support is right now. About 55, Yeah. Sebastian, what about our algorithm, our Minotaur algorithm? What can you say about that? How did it handle this craziness in the market in recent times?

Yeah, and first of all, good to be back, everyone. I want to show everyone, I guess, where we're kind of at, and then I'll go through a couple different time frames of how we trade it. Also, because I think this is important to show. So let me just share my screen and let me know when everyone can see. Everyone see? Yep, perfect. So welcome to the show. Anyone that is joining for the first time. My name is Sebastian. I'm the CTO over at Minotaur. And basically what I want to be showing you guys is we have an algorithmic tool. And the important point here is it can be run on a number of different time frames. So depending on how you run this tool, they can be completely customizable by the user. And you can customize it in such a way where it does things like scalping, swing trading, dollar cost averaging, and you can also configure it to trade based on the actual Power Law support and on the liquidity model. So what's important to understand, depending on how you run our algorithm, it has a number of different pathways on how it can trade. Now, an important point about this is unlike any other system, well, sometimes akin to other systems, the timeframe can vastly change how it trades. And typically with our system, since it produces alpha generating signals, what you tend to have is less alpha, but more frequency and more trading on a 1 minute, 3 minute, 5 minute or a 15 minute time frame. And as you go up to the higher time frames, what you get is less frequency but higher alpha generation. So. So this is something really that you can kind of think of it like a Swiss army knife. That can be a toolkit for you to go out and really work on the functions inside it, to kind of build it how you want it to run. So I want to kind of show a point today of first of all, where we're at when it comes to the 15 minute time frame. And just so everyone's aware, if we come back, we can kind of take a look that we were running our trades here and we kind of closed our Last position at 115k, so very close to the top. I want to show an important point that on the 15 minute time frame, we nearly bought the tip of the market. So I think it's important to show this because we want to be transparent about the system and how it works and the fact that it's not perfect. Right. And in certain ways it can either be trend following depending on how you set up the take profit configurations, or it can also be something that takes profit very, very quickly. In this scenario, one of the algorithms I'm running aims to trend follow and capture large profits. Now one of the downsides to this is sometimes it can catch the tip of the market. But what I want to show you guys, one is why that's not the end of the world. And two, kind of what this situation looks like when you go through mass market sell off. So what I want to show is that first, the algorithm made its first buy at 115k, so very, very close to the tip of 126k. So this was not a great buy, right?

Right.

Not a great buy considering what's happened with the market. But the point is that it doesn't have to be a perfect buy because when you structure the algorithm to layer your capital efficiently over time, what it means is that it can be very, very forgiving. Now, if you're a traditional trader who puts his assets into the market and goes long, that's an unforgiving strategy because you have to get the first buy perfect for you to be able to be profitable. Right? What we love about DCA and why this is a strategy used by so many funds and so many traders and institutions is that one, it's forgiving on where you place your buys, but two, you have the ability to invest into the asset and lower your weighted average price as the market falls. So you've got to notice two lines here. One is the green line. This is your take profit, which is in this case a trailing percentage above the weighted average price. The orange line here is the weighted average price. And what you're going to notice with the algorithm is it slowly dollar cost average down as the market falls. And you're going to see the market get very, very aggressive here with the selling pressure. And as we can see, we continue to go and we continue to go. Now, important point, this dollar cost average from $115,000 on Bitcoin. And we just recently made a buy on around the 6th of February, so not too long ago, start of this month and that purchase was placed at 60k. So let me put that into perspective. Most traders that were long and not short in this market lost everything and were completely liquidated, not just traders. Also recently there was some pretty crazy behavior going on with block fills. I don't know if anyone's been paying attention to that, but institutions have gotten exploded on this move down. So don't get it twisted that it's just retail traders losing. That's not the case. Large scale traders and institutions have lost as well. The point is that although we've been in this trade for an extended period of time, there's no doubt about that. And although we are in drawdown, yes, there's no doubt about that. There's two points I want to bring up though. What's more important than anything else is one liquidation risk, two, capital preservation. So if we can prevent liquidation and we can put ourselves in a position to exit the market on a recovery, being in drawdown is not really a problem. The problem is when you lose your portfolio. So if we actually look at where we're at right now, as we can see, our weighted average price is sitting at around $73,000. Now that is a ways away from 67, but it's actually only about a 10% move. So the point I want to make to you guys is the algorithm made a bad buy at the start of the cycle, but because of its infrastructure and the way that it costs averages down, that bad buy all of a sudden turned into a purchase that is now sitting at $73,000. Now if the market can recover from here and there's no guarantee, we could go down to power law support. That's the reality. But I'm very confident we're not going below power law support. And if it does happen, it's something that won't happen to wrong. That's what the historical data tells us. So I think it's important to you know when this sort of stuff is happening in the market. And I know Giovanni Marcus Costa can talk about this. I've been in this market for over a decade. I couldn't tell you guys how many times they say bitcoin is dead. It's over. Bitcoin is dead. I saw something the other day trending that there's more bitcoin is dead quotation marks on Twitter than there's ever been before. And this isn't something that changes. So when you enter this market, you know, regardless of whether you have conviction or not, you cannot be fickle and you have to have confidence in what you're doing. And the reality is, on the 15 minute time frame for us, we're in drawdown, but on these settings, we're only about a 10% move from our average price and potentially a 15% move from taking profit. Now, here's what's important. This is a setting we run, but this is a tool, right? We're not a hedge fund and we give clients the ability to set this up and run it how they want. Now if we go ahead and change this to a two hour time frame, Remember how earlier I said what we're doing by doing this is we're giving away how often it trades to increase the alpha of the signals. I want to show you guys something on a two hour time frame. Although it was not producing as many trades, right. We've actually traded active this whole time. So we took our last profit at 96k and we've traded all the way down to where we are now, 66, weighted average price of 71 with a take profit of 75. So the point is, you know, this is a tool that can be construed in a number of different ways and depending on your risk profile, how you want to run it, there doesn't have to be liquidation risk. It can be run in a safe way, or if you're someone that likes to take a bit of risk, it can be constructed like that as well. But it's just about understanding this is systematic trading regardless of the market direction. And it puts you in a position to be able to exit in a profit much better than spot buying the top of the market, and far greater than investing your portfolio and putting a stop loss on. So that's kind of where we're at. And I just wanted to show everyone the system.

Very good.

Great job.

Awesome.

Okay. Very good. Costa, do you want to add something or.

Yeah, my. My browser is playing up, so I can't share and I can't show my video. But, but I just wanted to say

that

the Minotaur algorithm has really proved itself as, as a hedge against a price crash, as a hedge against these massive drawdowns. At the end of the day, a lot of our clients, especially the ones that come from Giovanni, are using Bitcoin as collateral.

Right?

They want to acquire more Bitcoin. So you're already exposed to a hundred percent of the price going up. The Minotaur algorithm Shouldn't be about making more money when the price price goes up, it should be about making money when the price goes down to give you the ability to buy more bitcoin at lower prices. And we've really started to understand that that's the one of the biggest strengths that we have is to just focus on where the price can go during a crash. How do we take advantage of a 10 pullback, a 20, 30, 50, 60, 70 pullback, not how do we make more money when it's going up. We're already making money. We're all bitcoin pointers. Right. We don't need to do that. What we need to do is we need to take advantage of the market goes down. And you can see from what Sebastian said, sometimes just adjusting the time frame, setting it to a two hour instead of a 15 minute, it's just going to allow you to be better positioned when those crashes happen. And I think everyone's been humbled this particular cycle because at any given point it looks like that that power law support is a really strong magnet and it can happen at any time, regardless of where we are in a cycle, if it exists. So I think the Minotaur product is a fantastic way to have defensive exposure to this kind of activity for Bitcoin.

Yeah. So I want to add something about that. Right. So whenever I suggested people to actually use this tool, that is a tool I use myself, I always said think about this tool as a tool to increase your holding of bitcoin. Because the idea, I actually have a term for this. I call it oddle plus. And what do I mean with that? Your bitcoin is sitting somewhere. Right. Many people suggest to eat see to avira bitcoin in a cold wallet. That is a very good advice, etc. The problem with that is your bitcoin is sitting there. And you know, it was different 10 years ago. We expected bitcoin and that is one of the consequences of the power law to go up 70%, 80%. Right. Depends on how close you are to the beginning. With time, we have diminishing return. And it is not just a diminishing return of the peaks is a diminishing returns peak period of bitcoin. Right now if you use a power law, we're talking about annual returns of around 40%. These returns are going to go down all the way to 25%. It will take 20 years to go there. But. And it's still amazing that you can do these returns. But we are not talking about to pair anymore now. If you are able to use whatever method and that even talking about options, for example, because it's a complete free method, it doesn't cost you anything if you learn how to do it. And I'm making videos to explain how to do that because I don't care. You know, I'm neutral. You can use this tool or you can do it yourself doing options. But if you do even something as small as let's say 2% a month on top of your Bitcoin, or even 1%, 1% with option, it's very easy to achieve. You can do it with options of Bitcoin, you can do it with ibit if you want to buy some of the ETFs. One percent a month is three times your Bitcoin in 10 years. So if you have a long time horizon, that is what you have. If you are a Bitcoiner and 10 years is long, but is not a lifetime, it's a relatively short amount of time. You can multiply your Bitcoin by three pair. If you have 2%, we are talking about 10 pair. Okay, so imagine you're multiplying. So you start with one bitcoin and you are going to have 10 bitcoin in, in 10 years. According to the public law. We are talking about 15 pair, the value of today. So that means a total of 150 pair. So nothing is guaranteed. I'm not telling you this is exactly what is going to happen, but this is what the math shows. So if you have any tool that can give you some small consistent yield on bitcoin, that is what you should focus on. That is like a gift, you know, and this tool that the Minotaur team created can do that. But don't focus on getting big returns. Focus on very small consistent returns and making sure that your liquidation levels are basically nothing. Like I set it up in that way. I didn't care about making 5%, 10%. I was talking with some people that told me, oh, you know, I discussed with the mandatory team. I told them to push the machine so fast, where I'm making 10amonth. I was very scared about that. I told everybody, don't do that. I had a personal friend that he was insisting to do that and I was telling him every single time, focus on preserving your capital, focus on preserving your capital. Focus on preserving your capital. And this tool can do that, right? It's like you have a car, you can drive at the speed limit and go wherever you want and then you can go 200 miles an hour. Avarash and go in a, in a canyon, you know, don't do that. Drive safely, you know. So that is my advice and if you focus on that, this tool will be a powerful tool for you. You know, that is, that is how I see it. I don't know if you guys have to say anything about this, but this is my philosophy about using this type of tools.

Yeah, it's. I think the point is Giovanni's made it time and time again. You can cheat. You can achieve one and a half percent without any liquidation risk. And if one and a half percent a month means you turn one bitcoin into ten bitcoin in ten years, you have to ask yourself, is it actually worth taking any risk at all? That, that's the kind of way I think about that and it's. There's the answer, guys. And tell me another way you can take one bitcoin to turn it into 10. If you want to do it through mining, you're going to need to go and buy a warehouse somewhere and probably invest about $2 million. Good luck with that,

right?

Yeah.

Anyway guys, if you're interested in more in the details and how to join this particular program, you have a link there. You can also contact me directly on my X account and I can put you in touch with the team and, and you can start to test it, you know. But yeah, there is a link there below that you can use. We will have also some webinars soon and I will announce them in my X account. We, we will try to have these webinars every month and we can go more, more in depth and answer all kind of questions that you may have. Okay, maybe we can address some of these questions. Quantum computing. A better place to ask these kind of questions is, is our physics of bitcoin show that we have on Wednesday. If you look at. And you can go on. I don't know if you are. Are you on YouTube? Yes. So go on my. On that series. Right. That you can find and look for episode number five. There is an entire show, episode number five dedicated to quantum computers. And it's a presentation by Steve. He that is a physicist. So it's probably the best type of people that you want to ask this question. And he's not just a physicist because we specialize in different topics. He actually worked on computation. So he's an expert on this topic. And to. To summarize he say that it's not a problem. We have countermeasures for them. We will implement. These are counter measure before Quantum computing became a threat. But go and watch that episode, episode number five. Okay. Okay. I don't know who's. You guys know who is Sandler? I don't know who's this guy is.

I may be talking about. I've got no idea.

No, I don't know. Okay. Is the value of a white line and we say around 56, 55. This comment here. Institution are aging and take profit. We don't wait until the price goes out to take profits. Right. And this could explain why we didn't have a blow off top right Mark. Now why did we have a, a very rapid change downwards? I think has to do with leveraging and some games at institution play.

Exactly.

Because we have a lot of pepper bitcoin right now. But it could be also an opportunity because in theory if you have a algorithm that can react to these big changes, then maybe you can position yourself and buy low. So this is one of the things to consider. I don't know if you guys want to say something about that.

Yeah. Institutions are, there's, there's, there's different types of commercial traders. You know the futures market is where price discovery happens because there's where the leverage is at. Leverage is where the bubbles take place first and spot catches up to parity with leverage. And they're commercial traders that, that, that buy futures to protect future prices for their businesses, their ratio. There's proprietary desk commercial traders that buy low and sell high and it takes long time. Sometimes those institutions are on longer term time frames and it takes a long time for those institutions to round trip their portfolios. So when you're moving billions of dollars it could take a year or nine months, six months. So there's that and then there's basis trading. So traders that are hedging and getting advantage of fees and interest rates and the cost of holding positions. So there's all that going on at the same time. One thing I wanted to make clear as most individuals tend to buy high and not and sell low, so they, they do it totally opposite of what institutions do. So just my two cents on that.

Good. All right, let's see what is the next question this was. I don't know. The faces of a panel are blocking the lower fifth of the screen. Yeah. Next time we can take off the faces. Yeah, you don't see, you don't need to see our faces all the time. It's, it was me that I was not directing the show. There are ways of moving the faces all over the place or even not having faces.

Yeah.

Thank you for the support, the moral support forth. Yeah. So in theory. So if you believe a cycle theory, you know, usually we top on the fourth year after the alving. Right. So it should have been October, November, December, and then it takes one year to go to the bottom. But things move very quickly. We are much closer to the bottom to where we are supposed to be. So I think something happened. The overall picture is the same. The cycle structure probably is different. We need more data. I say we need more data to understand. Is this theory of a log periodic bubble correct? We don't know. We. If we have a peak in 27, it will confirm the log periodic theory. So I. I'm not sure if we have the same references that we had before. Things seem to be different. Okay. Casper no is not a power law anymore. It was for a short period of time. I warned everybody that it was interesting. But it didn't last. There is too much until October. I believe Bitcoin can easily go to 40, 45k area. It can go anything. You know, we right now, the data that we have is that that bottom, that power low bottom is a very interesting point of reference. It has never been violated. Is something written in stone? No. Right. But when you say I believe, I usually don't trust people that say I believe this. My feelings is because we are trying to use data, right? Yes. It's a difficult business. It's better to make a bad prediction using data than guessing right with no method. Because I don't know if your guess was just lucky. At least I tell you how I arrive to that conclusion. This is my method, this is my, my starting point. These are how I go there. And you can, in science you can say, well, I don't like your starting point. I would like this starting point instead. And you explain logically why that starting point is better than this other. If something goes wrong, then you go back and you recalculate or you see where your assumption were wrong. If you say I believe this is why 99% of influencers online on Twitter and so on, they use their feelings. They don't explain how they arrive to some analysis or they use methods that are kind of ridiculous, like joining by hand a couple of points and say oh, this is a support line that is kind of done by guessing. You know, they draw something, it looks like logical because we are a pattern seekers. And they show over here the see that is a pattern, but it's a pattern. So this is why I prefer to be wrong using math, because I can Go back and see where I went wrong. You know what, what you know where I did. My assumption were wrong, My method was wrong. I can always check it back. Right. This how you do it is how you learn. You go back and forth in an iterative matter. But saying I believe. Okay. Exply believed on what? Just feelings, you know, that is my problem with that.

Okay,

top matches. No, because if you can look at all the bubbles before these and. And come up with a logical model, that is what we did in a very periodic bubble, say every four years, you can calculate that decay. That is reliable. But the point, like I say that is different from the power law. And this is one of the things that people don't understand.

Not to cut you off, Giovanni. That's the same type of mentality that gets you on trouble on the tops.

Yeah, these are.

These are retail mentalities. I believe it can easily. They use words like I believe it can easily go.

Yeah, yeah, exactly.

Easily. Based on what? There's no right now, currently, there's no liquidity to take you there.

Yeah.

It's going to take time structurally. And here's the thing that gets you off cycle. This type of belief is going to go lower. Makes you wait, it makes you sell, it makes you hesitate. And this market is slowly building strength. And what's going to happen is you're going to miss the move more than likely. Just like you missed the top. Oh, I believe it's going to go up and it's actually going to go down. And now it's got everybody thinking it's going to go to zero, it's going to go to 40, it's going to go down, down, down. And it's slowly building strength to make a face. Melting. Move up and you're going to be in the wrong position again. On the downside, that's what the markets do to retail mentality.

Yeah. And you know, we are not trying to pile on.

No, no.

We are just saying this is our approach. This is what is the difference between what we are doing and what other people are doing. We are not using feelings here. We are trying to minimize feelings. I don't know. I didn't see much liquidity. And it could be some liquidity there, but it depends how strong the liquidity is. It can form a wall. You know, Marcus is more of an expert in this.

And there's liquidity everywhere. There's always some liquidity. And there's gonna. In the market, the chart will never take it all. It's going to be some left behind. You can't take it all in either direction. But yeah, there's not much to get us there.

Now about the slope, this is also not true. So you can calculate and there are. It's not just me. Other people have shown this graph. You can calculate the slope adding more and more data. You don't want to take just a small amount of data. You want to do it from the beginning. And you calculate this slope adding more and more data and you see actually how it stabilizes. It stabilizes and it doesn't change. And the R square also increases. So the power law is becoming stronger now weaker and the slope is stabilizing. You have to do it in the correct way. You cannot just take the most recent data back to a certain. Because the entire idea about the power law that is a scaling phenomena. So you want to include all the scales from. From the origin. Otherwise you're not discussing the power law. And the power law slope is becoming more stable. I did other things go on my recent post I discussed this thing that they call the daily slope. So I basically look at the change in price and then I normalize it by the decay that is supposed to be there. And then you get this stable quantity. That is what they call daily slope. It's a slope. And that slope is oscillating. But oscillating around a stable value. And even the distribution of these value of a slope is consistent in time. And you can do different tests. I discussed this in the last few posts. Maybe I should do a video discussing these. But it's one of the most is basically a test to show how stable the power law is. The power law is extremely stable. It's becoming more stable with time. Okay. Bitcoin will do a max of 300 from bottom to top for the next cycle. 300 is actually a lot, right? We were supposed to go 80 from bottom you're saying? I don't know. You know again, I don't know where you're taking this number. I would like to see a calculation where you're showing this. I we could use that decay. I don't trust it that decay anymore because it didn't materialize this time. I think probably we're not going to see big bubbles in general. You know I think maybe we go back but back to reference line and maybe we do exactly what we did this time. We go all maybe 20% above it, 10% above it. I don't see we are going to. I don't think we are going to see even two pair from the Reference line. I will be surprised.

And I just want to throw out there. You got to be careful with a performance driven mentality. Everybody wants to get returns, returns 300%. I want 10x more. That is the exact mentality that's going to get you to lose your money. It's just like going to the casino. I want to make my rent. I want to make money. When you go in there with a make money attitude, you lose sight of how much risk you're taking to try to achieve those results. And you lose sight of the risk. It's all based on defense first. How much am I risking? What do I stand to lose? And if you can just maintain that, like Sebastian was saying earlier and Giovanni can attest to this. If you can protect your base, the magic is not in the return or the profit. The magic is in the compounding. It's what it does over time as it begins to stack up. It's right. The base works for you.

Exactly.

This isn't a short term market. This isn't a short term market. I always like to use this point and it's like, you shouldn't be coming into this market for a monthly rental income. You should be coming into this market for long term wealth generation. The faster you shift your mindset to that, the faster you have success. And trust me, there is no such thing that makes you rich overnight. Doesn't exist. Right. So don't get trapped into that.

Yeah.

Because if you lose your base, then you're out of the game.

Yeah, yeah.

Can't do anything.

Yes. This is a good. A good point.

Yeah.

If you guys give me your. So Marcus has a Twitter page. I can add it. Yeah, Marcus, if you don't mind writing down for me your handle, then I will add it to the description of the video. What about you, Sebastian?

Well, I don't really use X. All I use X for is to follow your post, Giovanni. I don't have any followers.

Okay. And Minotaur is in the cost as a monotar system account that you can subscribe to, you can follow. But I will add it to the description. It's a good.

It's. My name is my handle. My name is my handle.

It's on my name, you know, so Marcus. Yeah. And maybe we can stop here. I didn't say that. I'm expecting the bottom now. I'm expecting that the bottom line. That line is respected and if we touch it, that is the bottom or at least a local bottom. Now it could be that we stay there for a long time. Usually this bottom are extreme position. So for example, one of a charts that at the end show you. Maybe we can discuss next episode is this chart where identify these regions. There is a region I call the core power law. Usually these during bear market we spend two years in this core region and it treats both. Even. Even the reference line is treated as an extreme value. We in the past we didn't spend a lot of time beside last year where we moved along. That reference time usually was a. A crossing point. We were in the core region or we were in this turbulent region that was above a power law. And the bottom is an extreme value where if we touch it then we spend just few days there and then we go back to this core level. So it's possible that we touch it, we go to record level maybe again we touch it again. But remember the bottom in November is going to be different than the bottom now, right? It's going to be more if I remember well because people, you know, under the old assumption we were supposed to go 200k it was supposed to take one year. So from November to November you're right. Usually the bottom was in November of the following year after we reach the top. And I remember by heart, that value was around 70k. So even if we have a bottom in November it will be 70k. So basically we are not going anywhere. We are moving sideways, you know, for almost one year. Maybe we go a little bit tired, then we go back there, you know. But I don't know. The only thing I'm saying is that I'm not sure if regular. The regularities that we saw before about the cycles, they were pretty regular. You can superimpose I did that. I superimposed the previous cycles and they were almost identical, you know. But I'm not sure we are following that pattern anymore. So this is what I'm saying. We need more data to understand what is going on. If we are in a different regime. I my assumption is that the overall power law is still valid because it's a long term trajectory. The cycles are disrupted somehow. You know, there are some similarity but also a lot of different differences. So we are learning as we are going. That is my approach right now. Anyway, guys, thank you for your questions. They're all very nice and thank you for engaging with us. We will be here next Thursday again. Okay, thank you everybody.