Bitcoin Live with the Power Law & Minotaur Team, #8, 5/8/2025

Okay. Hi, Everybody. This is May 8th. It's a very good day. Bitcoin is going crazy like that. And I am here with the Manotar scheme. I have. I have Costa, that is the CEO of the company. Sebastian is one of their brains, coder and programmer in the company. And Marcos is also here. He's coming back and he will give us a very nice analysis about the liquidity of bitcoin. Okay, so let's. Let's focus on the charts, right? So we start with some of the power law charts. You have a link over there. You know, if you are interested in getting these charts. There is also a Discord community that you can join. We have about almost a thousand people in the community. Anyway, so what I'm showing here in this chart, it's some of our main bitcoin power law charts. Uh, in fact, it's. They are superimposed. Let me. Let me maybe turn off one of them so it's a little bit more Clear. Clear. All right. So this is what we call the bimodal bitcoin. And it shows few things. First of all, the blue line, it's the major power law, right? What we call the reference power law, Power low. It's supposed to be kind of a compromise, right? You see, between the peaks and the bottom, right? And it's. There are different ways that you could calculate what is called the fair price of bitcoin. But that is what we consider at the moment probably one of the best. It's like a. It's a regression. What we do using this idea, right, of taking the log of the price and the log of the time. It doesn't look like a straight line in this graph because it's a lot. What is called a log linear chart, right? I take a log of a Y, I take the X of a time, and it looks curved. But if I. If we were plotting these on a chart where the log we take also the log of a time, it will look straight. That is the main thing that we. This linearity means something, right? Is the important element of the power law. And I stand a little bit to show you where we are going. And there are. The main feature of this chart is that there are two regions, right? By the way, there is also this bottom, this bottom. We believe strongly it has to do with the cost of production of bitcoin. And look how amazing it is, right? You can catch all the main bottoms. Like even during COVID we didn't cross that line. It's something that you can calculate in different way, but usually it's about 60% from the middle line. Probably this is the real power law or all the data between the blue line and the white line is what we call the core power law. So we usually spend two years, right. If you look at patterns from the past and the question is still there are these patterns broken, Right? Because some people started to say we don't have a cycle anymore. I, I always say it's too early. Yes, it looks different from other cycles. We can look at some of the chart to compare in a moment. But the main thing is that during the bull run, right when the bull run starts, like I say, we spent two years at the core and the core is not even the support. The support actually it's kind of an extreme relatively to where we spend the most of the time. We spend most of the time in this region between the blue and the white line. So you know, some people, they don't understand the power law. They say, oh, it's so white. Why they can be anywhere. We never say that really. The core is almost scarily precise how close the price is to this core. And you can see these are the deviation, this color, color green show the line in the middle is the mean where we usually are. And the price oscillates around there. And the green shows the different range of deviations during this time. Usually when we leave a core. And I made a prediction. I said, you know, this was like all the way to April of last year. I say, as November comes, guys, get ready for the bull run. And I even predicted the price within few hundred dollars, right? Talk about prophecies. But I did it with Matt instead of talking, talking to the aliens and, and you know, I was right because this is what, what happened at the end of the year. We were there, right? We added this bull run and we went in this what we call the turboland flow of a turbulent flow. It. The power law is still there because you can see we really. This red line is where the power law is. But it looks shifted and it looks shifted because the distribution of the values, it's long tailed. It does. It tends to be larger for large deviations. So it's not symmetric like the one in the core is, you know, is. It tends to have larger events for positive values. This is why we go. So it really explains why we have bubbles in the first place. It's power law plus a lot of turbulence, right? It's almost like we go to this turbulent flow in a air, you know, when we are flying or something. And you get a lot of shaking. But it's, it's not symmetric shaking. It tends to shake things up, up to, you know, actually when we reach the tops that are to see these are large deviations from the trend. These darker areas, you can actually tell where they are going to be. You can identify them. And this is important because if we go back to this region, we can use this indicator to tell us when we are too far. Maybe there is a correction. Because if we go to this dark area, we will have a correction. And look at this. There is like a sliver of red there. You see how there is a sliver of red? Because today we just cross this region and we went back. It's not necessarily just the power law. We have a more sophisticated method. It's called marker chain and defines the two regimes. Actually, I should add a third regime that is like in between. We have this between area. And so no, this is very nice because we left this turbulent region. It never happened before, at least for so long time. It happened only once here where we went to this green area when we are supposed to be in the red area. But we did a very, very, very short amount of time. And then we went back. We never had an extended region like this. This is why, you know, it does look different this cycle from others because it know, we added this correction. We stay there for a long time. But now we are back. Now, you know, is he going to stay back and reach and see this is the target. I'm have a target of 200 that is there in. In this. And it's not really one single point. It's. I wrote a little bar here because it's always a region, right? So it's a region in the last quarter of the year. It doesn't look that crazy right now we have a hope to reach there. Now this needs to be pretty consistent game. I calculated 0.39% per day every day in average. Right. To retract, it's pretty intense. But to give you a reference, last cycle we went something like 0.455. So you know, we will need to do for the end of the year more or less what we did during the last cycle and then actually slightly less and then we will reach 200. Where do I get the 200? I get the 200 from this. Let me show you the other indicator when I superimpose on it. So this one, right. So you can actually calculate the. So while the power law doesn't tell us where these bubbles are going to be, you can use the power law as a reference and then calculate how big the deviations are from the trend. And it turns out they decay. You see these yellow band on top right? This yellow band, this yellow channel represents this decay. You see how it follows the decay. So I use a formula. There is a formula that is the beauty of Bitcoin. There is a formula for everything. So there is a formula that tells you how fast this decays. And you derive it from, you know, how big the deviations are from the power law and they seem to decay in time. And then you can extrapolate the decay mathematically. There is nothing drawn by hand here. This is the beauty of our approach. We different from other people that are all these technical analysis that is all drawn by hand is all matte. And so you can calculate this decay and project it to the future. And this is what you get. You get 200. Basically it's a. You know, in the beginning we had a 10 pair deviation. Then 5 pair deviation, the next deviation. If we follow this decay, I take seriously all the information from the coin. It doesn't mean that we need to follow this decay. But if this regularity continue, then this is where you expect the peak to be 200k. And right now, you know, it's a bullish day. A couple of days. Look at this. It's. I think it's a more a coincidence. I will be like a little bit, you know, cheating if I say that is following this. I call it the full model right when I include the bubble to the power law. But it's following it almost to a dot. It's almost scary. That is actually following it. You know, you will see. We'll continue to follow it and reach it. We will see. But right now, you know, everything looks good and we are coming back to the this region. So this is what I have to say. Do you guys have any, any questions on this?

No questions. I'm. I'm waiting to see Marcus's analysis though of the liquidation maps to see where, where it's all converging. Because, you know, I woke up this morning because I'm in Australia. So all the action happens while I'm asleep. But I woke up and the price was I think 97 when I went to bed and 102.2 when I woke up. Something's happened and yeah, let's see how it all correlates.

Yeah, so Marcus can go next. And then in the end I will show the global liquidity show that also converges that it gives us the Same picture that we are going up. But let's, let's go with Marcus first.

Okay, Marcus is up.

All right, Marcus is up.

Share my screen here. All right. Okay. So what we're looking at here is a standard trading view chart, daily chart. We are looking at a futures market because futures are where the leverage is at and where the leverage is at is where the price discovery happens first. So that's why we use futures to discover price. And yes, we have had moving day is here. We are on our way. And it's amazing how this correlates with the power law. And as you can see here, I'm going to bring in the liquidity here in a second. But we had something happen right here that gave us a pretty strong move here. We've been watching this for some time. We just didn't know that it was going to be as explosive as it was. You had a level two. Two big levels right there. So let's see what's behind the move. And that's why liquidity is so important, because it is like chicken and the egg. You need liquidity to influence price and price influences liquidity. You cannot have one without the other. They are one and the same. They are completely correlated. So here we go. Want to add in the liquidity now. So now we can see what we're looking at here now is we're looking at all of the positions. The composition of positions from 2, 25x leverage, 10x leverage, 5x leverage, all the way down to 3x leverage, which is basically almost like spot. And that composition is all of the positions. Well, this is different than typical heat maps. Typical heat maps can show limit orders and orders that can be canceled and spoofed. These are traders or positions that are in either positive P L or they are in drawdown. So the longs are positive and the, the shorts are in drawdown. So these positions are relatively fixed and they don't. Those positions are fixed and these levels are the stop losses and liquidations of all of those positions. So having said that, looking at the daily, we were identifying last week that we had a significant amount of liquidity that had been building since we had the move down. And we had been taking out the long side of liquidity. Right. So we had liquidity that had been building up for some time. When we've been in this range for the last four months and we had the long side, liquidity was being taken. I'm going to back out to three, so you can get a little bit better I picture. And they basically Took out, liquidated all the 5x25x and 10x100x50x. So that's gone. And then once we hit this low, we begin to reverse and go the other direction. So, and that's been very powerful. As you can see right here. We made a substantial, substantial liquidation event. And okay, so now it's pretty safe to say that we have confirmed that we have finished the liquidation process, the harvesting of the shorts and now we are confidently, significantly beginning to harvest the loss of, sorry, the short side liquidity. We completed the long side and now we're going short. So the premise is very simple. The big institutional players that can actually influence the market, they make price range, price ranges for a reason, because it begins to build up liquidity and over time that liquidity begins to intensify and composition and then it gets harvested. So when the liquidity gets significant, it's harvested, as you can see here. So we harvested all alongs, they're out. And now what the institutions do is they harvest along. So all these liquidations are forced to sell low and they take it up and then they liquidate the shorts and they're forced to buy high. So it's the opposite of what you should be doing. You're selling low and buying back high. So that's how the, the big markets, makers and institutions play the game. They just play it over big time frames. So as you can see here, they've, they've picked up all this inventory and now they're starting to carry it up here because you have locked in buyers here. They're locked. So here's, here's the price of projections here. Giovanni was saying that we're looking at 200. It's amazing because last week we were right here and right here and we weren't sure where we're coming back down to retest. And the market just got right back on the power log time frame really quick. It's amazing how it just snapped into place all of a sudden. So the price projections for the actual trap liquidity is coming in at about 136 to 140. So it's up here. So we have that locked in. That's a high probability. It's a very deep concentration right there. So what happens is the price, you know, we're extended here, we might continue to take out this zone here and then we might be due for a pullback and then we start this process. Right. So when we get over here, when we finally get here, you know, you're gonna, you're not Gonna go straight up. So let's say you have inflow, and then the market will. This is how I calculate how far we could potentially go past. Let's look at the last short liquidation event before we got into the new range. So we'll add another $20,000 or 25% on top of the range. So now that we did that, let's add 25% on top of this range. So now we're at 140. Let's go 140. 25 on top puts us at about 165. Sorry, Giovanni, I can't get you all the way there, but I can get you. I can get you close. I can get you close. So what we're looking.

No, no yet. We have a few months. We have a few months.

Yes.

So we come in what is July. Right. By July we should go to 160. Then we take a break and then we go to up.

Yeah. Then we start forming new liquidity up here and new liquidity down here. So what happens is we break out, we liquefy, we liquidate all of this trap short liquidity up to 140. And then the market goes past it another 25% to create a new range. And then the process starts all over. So that puts you at about that. You know that in that range of 200. And where do I get that confluence of that is just go back in history when we liquidated last summer and then we moved into this range. We don't just stop at the top of the liquidation pool. We go past it to create a range. So that's where we got that calculation. And it lines up with the power law. So that's what I got. That's my two cents on that.

Is you. It's one Bitcoin, not two cents. It's.

Yeah.

One.

That's my. That's.

That's my valuable, very valuable analysis.

That's my Satoshis.

Yes. Okay. Looks good. Tell me something. What are. Why. Why these two layers? Right. I see three layers here of red.

Yeah.

What. What do they represent? Why people create these layers? What. What is the idea behind it?

When you say you're talking about this area.

Yeah. Two. Two cloud. Two red clouds. Two red clouds. I'm trying to understand better.

He's talking about the coloration differences around the liquidity market.

Yeah. Why. Why do we see two? I. I will imagine most of them are just one single area. Right. But.

Yeah, it gets formed like this. So what I'm going to do is I'm Going to take off the 3x, take off the 5x.

Okay. Okay.

That's 25x. Then when you add in the 10x.

Different leverages, the more, the more leveraged.

It is, the closer it is to the price, obviously. So there's your 10x, it makes 5x. And what happens is they, they are overlapping. Right. So there is 10 here and 5x there. That's a lot of. Yeah, a lot of build up there. And then we will put the 3x and we can kind of see everything. It's all overlapped. Just a huge concentration. Now this concentration got built up right here. When the market took a big fall, everybody and their mother jumped in and opened up short positions, as you can see right here.

Yes.

And it just made it even bigger and they kept shorting. And this, this level is how many percents from price it was. That's 15%. So you, to have a 15 stop loss or liquidation level, you need to be trading 10x and 5x. So that's how it gets built in. So that's, that's about, that's accurate. Yep.

It makes, makes sense. Yeah. And I like this because you kind of told us right in the past that oh may come and we will see some movement up, etc.

Right.

And we will point.

Yeah, we, we were, we were saying that they're starting to harvest the longs. Yeah. We just didn't know they were going to move this quickly. But when you think about it, it's amazing how it's 10. The power law just tends to, to predict. In other words, the market might get off track or get off course for a little while, but then it snaps. Snaps right back to the time frame of the power law.

Yeah, it's an attractor. It goes there. It wants to go there.

Yeah.

Yeah, very good.

All right.

And yeah, and it's too early to see what will happen in the end of the year. Right. Because usually these projections can go just few months ahead of us. Right?

Yeah.

I mean the liquidity builds out live as the market moves. So.

Yeah.

So it'll probably like you were saying just in my little sketch here, you're looking at like August or so. Right. So then you start building a liquidity pool up here that gets you to 200. Right. Well, when are you going to harvest the pool? It's going to take a couple of months or so to harvest. Right. So that puts you at the end of the year. That's November right there for a potential harvest of this.

Right.

New pool. Right. Come down, you harvest that one that's the end of the year.

But there's not a heart. Do you have a harvesting of that bottom, do you think? Oh, you've got that correction. So.

Yeah.

So once we go back into range, what about collecting?

You could. You could tap into it. Yeah, but that's going to still keep you in the vicinity of where you broke out at.

Yeah.

Guys, you know, see, some of the question, from what I understand, and Marcus can correct me, because I'm still trying to learn from him, it's very dynamic, right. It's not. You can tell these kind of things ahead, right. And you can tell where we are going, but getting the right level, you know, because it's something that happens all the time, Right. If we have a movement like this, where we are going up, you know, there is liquidity. You have to see where the new liquidity is formed.

Right.

So not necessarily we go back to 70 when there is a lot of liquidity being formed at 80, you know, so we need to go through that 80 liquidity first.

Right. Look, look what happened here. For example, when we broke out of the 2024 summer, right. We liquidated all the shorts here and that put us in a new range. Just like Costa's saying, we might dip back into it a little bit, but we tend to stay at the new level. We don't give it back up.

Yeah.

So when we get to the top of this one, you know, we might cut into that level a little bit. But typically we're going to at least stay in this new zone when we get here. So we'll be up here.

Yeah, yeah. So, you know, it's not. It's not written in stone. It's very dynamic. It's already amazing that we get all this information we can understand more or less. We're going. This is why we do these shows every week, you know, because we want to give you the most recent update. Otherwise, you know, we'll tell you, okay, this is what happened for the next five months. You, you know.

Yeah. I'll tell you what, I'll tell you what, though. If anyone listening wants a little trick, take a. Just hold where you are, Marcus, tell them to take a screenshot right now and put that into Chat GPT and ask them what's the percentage likely that that top liquidity will get taken out when it looks like this and see what response ChatGPT gives you. Yeah, Very, very high chances. Yeah.

Typically historically, it. It tends to take the liquidity, especially once the bottom.

It's not a certain, but. But when it's this hot. It is red hot.

I mean, especially with the pockets, right? Just pockets indicate that there's hot liquidity there as well.

Let's just use history as right. I mean, look what happened in this area here in 2024 once it got heavy composition. Right. That makes sense. If your institutions, and there's thousands of institutions with thousands of algorithms all running programs, Right. It makes sense to harvest it when it's time, when it's thick. Right. So they broke it out here. They harvest the shorts right here. Right. All of it. And here we are again. This looks very familiar. Right. It's even more than it was last time. I mean, that's just locked in billions of dollars just sitting there. And it's going to be taken like it was taken before. That's how it works. The market's fractal, they're going to get that. And then we start the process all over again. Because after the harvesting is done, right, like here, you don't have any liquidity. So the market has no fuel. So what does it do? It ranges to build in new liquidity. So the process repeats itself. So it just takes time to do that.

Yeah.

Now if you have a billion dollar position, you're not going to put a market order in there. You're going to break it down, take some months to fill that.

Yeah, that's right.

That's why retail traders tend to, as me and Marcus like to say, often play directly into the hands of the institutions. Right?

Yeah.

Fill the gaps and then it gets taken.

Yeah. If you're, if you're trying the most, most retailers they're trading in here, they're trading this. Half the people think it's going to go up, half the people is going to go down. And then market, the market makers or the algorithms are playing you, your eyes with these. All this chop. You're trading in this chop and you're getting chopped up. All they're doing with all this chop is building up the liquidity to come lock you in and harvest you out later.

That's right. The second there's enough, they're going to.

Take it, they're going to take you out.

That's unless. Unless you've got an algorithm like us. So, yeah, I want to, I want to line up the date. I want you to just run there to December 1st. Marcus, just put your, put your mouse on Where? December. December 1st is of 2024.

All right.

We can see where the market started ranging right about there, December, you know.

Oh, the start of the new Zone. Okay. Yeah, it started.

Yeah. And I put, put that at the.

Far left so we can see what the pro today's price as well.

Right here.

So almost. Just so. Yeah, and then, and then move it to the left so we can see where we are today. So we can see. Yeah, you're good.

Yeah. Cool.

All right. So basically we've been ranging, you know, we've had this, this crash down all almost to 79, let's call it. We're almost back where we are. So. So for pretty much everyone, nothing's happened in terms of price. They're just back where they started. Unless you had the algo. I want to bring up just quickly if I can share my screen. I know a lot of people. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Performance.

And we've been running obviously the Minotaur algorithm this whole time. And I wanted to give just the people on the live stream an idea of, you know, this is the algorithm that Giovanni is using that we use on our personal accounts as well. If you enable my screen. Let's just, let's just line it up exactly how it was.

There.

Should be popping up now.

Perfect.

All right, so, you know, we all know how the algo performs. We've all seen this screen before, but let's just have a look down here at the actual performance. So I'm, I'm using the date range. So we see from the list of trades all the way back to the first of December, when that started happening. So overall we've had a 29 gain. If we compare that to the buy and hold today, bitcoin's only done 6%. So during that whole time frame, our algos managed to make a net profit of 28. And basically Bitcoin is from December 1st up only 6%. So, you know, that was completely hands off automated trading using our algorithm. And, you know, Giovanni, you can attest to the performance of the algo as well. But this is what it looks like, you know, when you have the right strategy and you're automated and you're not emotional and you let the price and the volatility do its thing. You know, we have a system here that can capture that volatility and, you know, this is what it gives us, performance.

Yeah, I, I can attest. And my curve actually looks better than this.

Yeah, your curve has the total just the end of the deals. This has the individual trades. So it's a little bit more lumpy.

Yeah, yeah. A little bit more hockey stick on Giovanni.

Yes. Yeah, yeah. You know, guys, what I want to say, few things to describe this algorithm. First of all, it doesn't use your bitcoins because there are some misunderstanding, right? One is we don't give, you know, you're not sending bitcoins to somewhere with the help of, of getting them back, right? They are in your account. Usually we suggest by beat. We were talking with Costa because there are many people that are interested in the US and right now there are not many places where you can trade futures.

We have a solution for US people if they, if they book a call, we'll show them the solution that we have.

And soon, as soon as supposedly Coinbase is going to Pathway, just announce it, they're going to have futures trading on their platform. So the US people will be able to participate too, without, you know, other solutions. And so we don't touch your money. You put it in Europe in your account. The best thing I will suggest, I will not trade less than 2030,000, you know, because otherwise it's not worth it. And, and you get very good result. My friend put 97 000, you know, basically one Bitcoin. And, and we had a month, we didn't trade for a month because there was a technical problem with this account that has nothing to do with the bot. And he made $15,000, you know, like, and it's not just one time off. Like I had the same experience. I, I tested the algo, you know, they told me, oh, you know, we have these algo, it's based on the power law. I was very skeptical, you know, and they started to see immediately results. But I was telling people about my results, like an experiment, like a scientific experiment. And people were begging me, can you show us how to get it? How to get it, say, please let me test it. And it took me many, many months before I was convinced. And I am, and I will never, never, never advise my community because I care about it, care about you guys. If I didn't use it myself and I use it, you know, I. It's amazing, you know, it's one of these things because we have days like this, right, that are amazing. And bitcoin goes up, but then what? What do you do with it, right? What if there is a correction? Well, we make money and we buy more bitcoin. And then guess what? There are times when bitcoin doesn't do much. It just goes up and down. And, and BET is basically bitcoin, right? There are extended time, you can see like, you know what happens. Bitcoin basically follow the power law during these Times and it stays there, it stays for a long time. It doesn't look like it's doing much because the power law, it's a very long trajectory. And during this time, guess what? The bot uses the volatility of bitcoin. Because bitcoin has two main characteristics. This long trajectory that is so predictable and then a lot of volatility is like the best of both worlds. Right. And we can use this volatility as our friend. So I will never tell you put all your bitcoin in this change. It will be absurd. Take a small percentage, like 10%. Right. You can be all of us are oddlers but you know, with a little bit of flexibility where we take 10% of our holding and we are a little bit more aggressive and the result is we get more bitcoin. Yeah, all what we want to do, you know, this is our goal. We are all bitcoiners. I, I don't want cash. I immediately convert that cash into bitcoin. Or you know, some of you could use it to pay bills. But I will not. Right. I would rather buy bitcoin with it. Most, most of us want to have more and more bitcoins. So this is a goal of a bot.

It's just one and, and it's a tool to generate cash flow. You don't even need to use your bitcoin, you can just use USDT and just, and just trade it and cash flow, it works really well. I wanted to, I wanted to just bring to site, you know, this trade here particularly. And where we are here there's, you know, even when the market's running, we've, we've got certain features and maybe Sebastian can discuss this, but you can see here that we've actually built in intelligence into the bot and into our algorithm where we have a take profit level which was this green line here. But the, see the indicator knew that it was, you know, quite bullish and the market was running up and it actually held on. Right, right, right. You can see always to the top of the peak and that's where it's ended up selling. So a take profit of around 4.9% which is what the fixed profit is, is actually closed out at around 11% on that, which is, that was one on the 2nd of April and this is the one today we see here it's done the same thing. From 5% we've gained an additional, call it 1.49%. So that's the bot actually. Yeah, go Sebastian.

Yeah, well I can just quickly touch on that and you know, like we always say, it's a Swiss army knife. And you know, it's important to understand that you can't, it's not just about structuring the strategy in the way you want. You can structure everything. What's happening here is we've got four or five different ways to set up the take profit. So if you're someone that likes to capture these larger swings in Bitcoin's price and has the patience to do so, we've got the trailing tools to give you that. Or if you're someone that actually prefers to get in and out of the market much faster, we have the ability to do that also. So the take profit can be completely dynamically adjusted down to the point where we can also adjust it to a break even status if that's something that people want. So, you know, you can really bring the way you like to trade Bitcoin also. And our systems and tools can allow you to do that. So it can be bespoke also. The other last point I wanted to make, and this is for Giovanni as well, discussing earlier about his experience with the algorithm. The beautiful thing, and most important thing is not just seeing how the algorithm performs when the market's moving up, but Giovanni actually got to see how the algorithm performed during a nearly 40% correction. Because remember, it wasn't that long ago when we hit 110 and went straight back down to 74. Now in that period, everyone all of a sudden, as crypto people are, they're quite fickle, they start saying bitcoin's dead, all these sorts of things. But Giovanni can attest to how the algorithm handled that drop and also produced a profit on top of that. Right, Giovanni?

Yeah. And, and you know, in the beginning was scary because you see, you know, because look, you, I like to, you know me, right? I know, I like to be honest all the time. The, the algo is clever, but it doesn't know what is the next move. He can kind of follow the momentum and say, okay, I'm not going to close the my trade here, I'm going to wait a little bit. But sometime it gets excited. Right now, you know, it would like to open position as we go up. What happens if you have a correction? Well, you know, you start to see the algorithm being in red. But you know, I knew the idea behind it and I know I knew it was going to DCA down and they started to see was exactly doing that. What really convinced me when I look at this chart and I say what the Heck is finding all the local minimum, is finding all the local maxima. You know, it really, there is thought behind this algorithm. And look, I coded algorithms for almost like 15, 20 years. It's not easy. It's not easy at all. And I never saw this level of precision. You know, this is incredible. And I was really in awe. You know, I say, wow, you know, but it's really intelligent. And I started to see it, you know, the algorithm is DCA down. They started to buy the deeps. You know, like people say, I'm going to buy the deep. I don't have to worry about buying the deep. My algo is doing it by itself without even putting additional cash because it's using my collateral. It's using the bitcoin you're putting in as a collateral. And then yes, you know, I had a position where it was open for a little while and there were times where I was worried. You say, okay, I'm, I have drew down. And then when it closed recently, right, because you can always count. What I like about this company is only focus on bitcoin. And the premise is, look, bitcoin, sooner or later is going up because this is what bitcoin does, right? If you're a bitcoiner, that is your premise. That is where you live, right? That is your mental space. And eventually, if you trust that, okay, I don't care, eventually will correct itself then when it corrects. Because I, I was dcing all the way down to, you know, 80,000, I got $5,000 closing gain when, when he finally closed the position. You know, you get this huge, big gain all at once. That makes up for whatever time you were waiting. You know, it's all proportion. In fact, one day actually I want to study. I guess there is some kind of scaling proportion there between the time that you wait and your games, you know, so look, it's. Nothing is infallible, nothing is zero risk. But I'm really impressed by the team and now they, you know, they are there for helping people, you know, me included. And we work all the time together and we are trying to come up with new ideas of how integrate power law principles in the, in the algorithm. And it's a powerful tool. So I would, you know, it's something that people should explore.

It's a really good point.

Yeah. And if people want to meet us face to face, know we're doing event in Las Vegas and it's coming up in around 20 days.

You have a, do you have like a little flyers to let us know.

Yeah. So we're going to. It's actually invitation only just because it's a private event. So if you are interested in coming, Giovani can post the Google form because we're doing pretty pre invites. You can you RSVP with us?

Yeah. Guys, sorry to interrupt because. Just DM me and tell me you're interested because we. It's mostly. We have already an invitation list but if you're really motivated and you want to come, we have still few places we're going to have food, dancing girls.

Right.

Now you don't want dancing girls. It's too distracting.

We. We want to focus.

Right. But we are going to have some food. Right. Some refreshments and food. Right Costa?

Yeah, yeah. And that's why we want to get some numbers so we can get a really bit of an idea of the numbers.

Yeah.

Who's coming? So D DM me and tell me I would like to come to the event and we can give you an invitation. So please send me a DM on X. Yeah, sure.

It's. It's, you know, you can meet Giovanni in person and you know, I guess by how many, what, 20 days? Yeah. Should be exciting. I think the way the price is moving can be very exciting.

Very good. And maybe if we have a couple of minutes we can take a question. But I wanted to share this chart first. So we spent just a couple of minutes on it. This is where we. So Marcus talked about the global. Sorry, the local liquidity. Basically liquidity that has to do with Bitcoin itself. This chart is more about global liquidity.

So it shows.

Basically this indicator is one of the many indicators that I have. In this case, what I'm doing. The purple line here is the global liquidity. Mostly M2. You can try to find more sophisticated form of liquidity, but M2 works good enough. And the trick here, this is why you see this. You see how is extended to the future. Right. So many of you probably are familiar with this idea. The main difference between this chart and others that you may have seen is that I don't plot liquidity by itself. So this is where the price ends. Right. You see here. But this is a model of a price based on the liquidity. So it's. It's a little bit better because I'm actually using the relationship between the price and the liquidity to make a model of a price. What the price is supposed to be according to this relationship. And this is what you're seeing. The green line is kind of smoothing as smooth first and then I fit later. Right. It's not just mooting of a purple line, but then basically the two are in agreement. And you can see how if we took this seriously in December we will have known that we were going to be a correction. I, I was looking at it, people were talking about it, but I was not yet convinced that this thing is, it is there. And I did a lot of study, I did, you know, I never do just oh, it looks like that. I did a lot of statistical studies and actually yes, very like 70% of the time when global liquidity goes up, the price also goes up about something like that. It's a little bit less when we go down like something like 60%. But there is a strong correlation between these two things. And, and if it continues, it's crazy, right? Because we are going to have a run up and look at that. Marcus was talking about 10 we 110, 120. Right. If we really go across the first liquidity level and the model predicts more or less the same again around the same range of July, August. So it's really cool to see all this convergence. You never want to rely on one single indicator, you want to use many. And when you have a convergence of many indicators pointing all in the same direction, you have a little bit more confidence. Right. So it's really cool. This one is mostly showing the winning rate. So it's a way of looking at, you know, basically an oscillator. So the orange is the liquidity. The reason why we can project in the future. Again, many of you are familiar, maybe some of you don't know is that it looks like there is a, a delay between the liquidity and the price. People debate what this delay is. I found 85 days based on all my statistical studies to be optimal for, for delay. It's never one precise things. It could be 90 days, 100 days, but there is a delay and that is cool because you can look ahead and tell where we are going. It's not, I will not take it as oh, it has to be 100%. But it's very nice to see all these convergence including this, right. That there is a lot of liquidity and Bitcoin seems to follow very closely this liquidity. Okay, you guys want to take some questions?

Yeah. And, and I just wanted to say as well, like it's really interesting now what's going on because you were kind of the canary. What's the canary? In the coal mine in December everyone was talking about super cycles prices never going down again. And you were saying the liquidity is not there. And then you know, we've had a. Almost was a 30, 35% correction. There's no more talk of super cycles. It looks like your model is exactly on track once again.

And yeah, that, that is true. So I was not taking seriously this delay because if we took it seriously, it was clear what was going to happen. But I was repeating almost every time I was having a show. Guys, we don't have enough.

Something's wrong. I remember you said something's wrong.

Yeah, you are very clear about that.

Yeah, it is going down. You know, I don't know what is happening here. I don't trust it. I don't think sailor and the ETFs are enough. I was repeating this every single time. And because you know, the data is there, the charts are. If you know what to read in the charts, the information is there. And then when people were talking about okay, it's done, we are going down. You know, it's like me, I don't understand these people but I always say saying the opposite of you know what is going to happen. Everybody call the cycle over etc, you know, it's not that we don't know yet, right. We need to go up above it power law. We need to stay there for a long time. We will see. But again it was premature to call the cycles off. Right. So it's possible that we go back, it's different. We have a tariff. So we added this interval of time when you know, we went below these core region when we are supposed to be in the Turboland region. But it's good, everything looks good. So hopefully we are going to have several months of bullish behavior. We can kind of adjust. The important thing is always how you are adjust to whatever is happening. Right. Because bitcoin, we know where bitcoin is going over the London term is going to a million, it's going to 10 million. But what are we doing in the meanwhile, right? Can we multiply or Bitcoin. That is our goal and we want to help people with that goal. That is what we are dedicated to, you know. Okay, so let's take some questions. So one of these is this one to under case still likely or maybe just so we don't know, right? We don't know. We don't have enough information for that. I will say as I explained, right. With 200k is not out of the question because we are, we are. It's may we have about, you know, other seven months by the End of the year usually. Now, you know, can he. Can the peak happen in January? Yes. Right. There is no anything written in stone that says oh, we need to have a. Usually, you know, there are reasons like, you know, for example, many companies they do their book keeping at the end of the year. Right. So for tax reason maybe there is a reason to. To have end of the year as a reference. Right. But and this historical what happened that we had all the peaks just before the end of here. So this where I focus on sang when we are going to have a peak. If we have a peak 200k is based on this decay. Like I say 80 deviation from the trend only by power law alone. If you continue to follow the power law that we have done very closely all this time, we are going to 130 and 80 plus 130 gives us 200k. Now it's not possible because like I say that will mean about 0.4% every single day. And Bitcoin has done that last time, last time. And of course these cycles are the volatility smaller, smaller with time. But you know, 0.4 is smaller than 0.45. It was the average return last year. So it's, it can be done. It's challenging now. You know, 150, 180, it's within that Think always about ranges, right? Never think about one single value. If somebody gives you four, four, four. Right. It's full of crap because maybe you got it right once, but the next time is not going to get it right, believe me. And it's always a range, you know, is always a range. So 180, 150. It's more likely than 200. But 200 is now out of equation, you know. So this is my position on that.

Yeah. And I think this big pump today is just showing how quickly it can still move.

Right.

You know, we were talking yesterday in. In our own meeting that 106 in, you know, seven to 10 days from now is very unlikely. But you know, in 102 point, you know, 1002005 is definitely possible by the time I wake up tomorrow morning it's moving quick.

So. So what people are asking about if we have a correction where we are going mar. So we are going to 80, we are going to 70. Can. Can we tell. You're think you're on mute. Oh, sorry for that. There was some background noise. Just let me correct it.

Just a second.

I muted Marcus because there was some background noise. But go ahead, you're unmuted Yeah.

I mean, now that we are harvesting the short side, I think it's very promising that we're going to be going up because one thing the market typically doesn't do is, is take out loans and shorts at the same time. So now that we're harvesting the shorts, that means they're taking the inventory up and it won't go in a straight line. It's going to be some ups and downs, ebbs and flows. But we are definitely going in the up direction right now.

You know, it's a little bit, from what I understand, it's a little bit like predicting weather. Right. And it's not that predicting. People think predicting weather is just, you know, it's not the seasons. Yeah.

Not the days. Yeah, okay.

Yeah, exactly. So, you know, you can tell, okay, we are approaching summer. Right. But I only signs that the temperature is going up, etc, but the local weather can change. Right. Because it's more difficult to predict that. Right. It's just that in general we are seeing where we are going if there is an update like this. Okay. Because the market can go up or down. Right. But when it goes up, when you start to see how strongly hop is going to. Right. So it's not, it's still probabilistic. You know, if we had a way of predicting 100, you know what will happen? If we had a way of predicting 100, the market will be flat.

Yeah. It won't work. No one's gonna make it.

You know, it's actually a good thing that is not predictable 100 because otherwise there would be no leverage for us. Actually, I, I heard yesterday, Andre, Jake, you know that guy that made me famous, he had a good point. He had a good point. He was saying, you know, why bitcoin is still such a good investment? Because so many people don't believe on it. If everybody believed in bitcoin, bitcoin will be flat. It will be flat. It will be over. And so actually the fact that we are few, that we are still few of us, it's what makes this thing go up. Because there is still uncertainty, there is still game there, you know, for things to move up and so on. And we are the ones that we are on the side of history. You know, when I invested 13 years ago, many of you were not there. It's not because I'm better than you, but, you know, I was taking a risk, you know, I was taking a huge, big risk at that time and that I got rewarded because I was taking that huge, big risk, you know, I could have lost everything. So, yeah, I think this is a perfect time because for being a bitcoiner, because your risk is so small, I think it's actually the most solid investment in the entire world. I would not want to put money in anything else. But everybody else in the world, like 99 in the world doesn't know that you know it. They don't, you know, and this is what makes you a good investor and clever person because you're going to take advantage of this. You know, this is the power of Bitcoin. But it's still something that many people don't realize, you know, they don't trust, you know, so that is where it's volatility and uncertainty is our friend. It's just that we want to have just a little bit of edge and you don't need much. Right. We are going to Las Vegas as Verve Conference. If you were able to play Vegas with 51, 52%.

No, you don't.

You, you will break. You will be the casin. You will break the casino.

You know, they'll kick you out very.

Quickly kick you out. You know, you need a little bit of advantage and you need to auto use it. That is entire thing.

That is true.

Okay.

That's what we provide. A little bit more of an advantage. You need the tools.

I can answer this question for you if you want, Giovanni. So yes, we absolutely can trade against usdc. We have a number of users doing this, so absolutely have the capability to do that. We can do usdt, USDC and we can use Bitcoin as collateral as well. So all of those are available options for our clients and users.

Yeah, we can run it on just about anything, you know, under the sun. Yeah, yeah.

Very good. And you know, we, we are expanding our, our vision because it's maybe too early to announce it, but you know, Kosto can say, but we are trying to think about creating some kind of a school where people can learn about these things. Education, you know, we. Yeah, it's a community. It's not just buying a bot. Right. You're joining a community. And we want to educate people. We want to learn together, you know, and we are exploring all these options. You know, you will, when Costa will do the announcement of our, the community, kind of give me a glimpse of what we are building. You will be amazed. You know, it's really an incredible thing where many different level of participation, different tools, different. I will be there giving lectures on the power law if you are interested. All kind of different things. So we want to build a community of bitcoiners. We want, you know, look, Odling, I know that many people listen to these influencer that are Odler fanatics. And Odling is great. We are all, all 90% but our angle is slightly different. You know, why don't we use other tools so we can have more? Because without doing something crazy, because we are not selling some stupid memes coin. We are not trying to be the gen here. We are trying to be very rational and using our mind and knowledge, you know, to get an advantage. You know, that is entire goal.

Exactly.

Yeah, absolutely. And, and this sort of. Yeah, we're really going to be expanding our offering towards probably, I think, I think now it's looking around Q3 of this year. You know what we, what having an algorithm like what we have, it's like going from a screwdriver to an electric drill, right. It's really going to allow you to, to get a superior performance to pretty much everyone. But you still need to know, you know, nothing is foolproof. You need to know how to manage the system as well. You need to know how to understand the system. So by providing the right education, it means that you can get more out of this tool that we're giving you. This is why someone like Marcus is able to take the tool and turn it from a Mercedes Benz into a Ferrari. Right. But you need to be able to educate yourself. You need to understand, you know, you're going to learn how to drive it. So there's a lot more than just. And this is why we're a trading system. We're not just a bot. A bot just simply executes trades, right? That's a very simple thing to do. A system is something that's much more holistic. It's about risk management. It's about understanding where you are in the market. It's about allocating capital, it's about managing a portfolio. So all these things are beyond the scope of just a bot. And that's what we do as a company. We have a holistic approach to this algorithmic trading. So it's much more in depth and there's much more to it than I guess, what some people think. A bunch of entries and exits on a trading view screen. That's just the beginnings of it maybe, Sebastian. Exactly.

Well, all those things, I mean, you made the point already. But all those things have to be in tandem with each other, right? Because I think a lot of people think this is a system where you click a button, turn it on and then you just never have to do anything. That's not the reality. It's very, very good. And it's gonna essentially fly on autopilot for you. But understanding a financial market and understanding how to manage your risk, your liquidation levels, these are as important as the functionality of the bottom and they go hand in hand. And that, that's real. Really where we want to take this is we've built the tools to trade, but we want to give everyone the level of education they need to be able to successfully use these tools in the market. It's really important.

Yeah, absolutely. And guys, what about this question?

Yeah, so, so basically we're also going to have a booth set up for the, for the whole of the. The whole of the conference. So all three days. The first day is an industry day, but then the two main days, so you can come and talk to us. We're going to be doing live demos. You can meet us, you can book a call with us. And then the event that we're doing with Giovani is actually on top of that, that's going to be on the closing night in the, in the afternoon just before all the parties start. So we're going to kind of squeeze in between the event and then you're going to have a couple of hours with. With our Giovanni and then you can go on and go to some of the closing parties that they're throwing. But yeah, you'll be able to come and speak to us live. But yeah, we will be doing a small short class alongside Giovanni at that event.

Yeah. And Alex, send me if you're on. On X. Send me.

Yeah, let's RSV pay you.

Alex, if you want, send me a DM and ask me to if an invitation for the event. Okay, I'm going to. If you don't, if you are not. If you don't know where to find me here, I'm going to put it in the. The YouTube comments. This is my ex. So come. Come to visit me. Yeah, Follow me, follow me and then ask for an invitation.

Awesome. Great. Alex. Yeah, rsvp and we'll see you there. Very excited to meet everyone, actually.

Great.

And this. Yeah, And I think this is one of the other points I wanted to make. Like there's a lot of uncertainty around what we do because it's in crypto and it's. And you know, there's. There are admittedly a lot of people that don't do the right things, but, you know, what you get from Minotaur is you get to meet us in person. We do these live events on YouTube. You know, you get to see our faces, you get to discuss things with us. But you know, the most important thing with Giovanni keeps iterating is that, you know, we don't get any of your funds. You never send us the funds. The funds are always held in your exchange. You look at us like where the, we're the, the strategy providers and consultants that our job ends there, and educators that that's it. We never receive your funds. We never control your funds. You can turn the bot off at any time and withdraw everything instantly if your exchange allows you to. Yeah, you know, it's, it is an important point because we get a lot of these.

No, no trolls.

And it's like, how can we do anything nefarious when we don't.

Yeah, no trolls. Because some people got, you know, some people got art, you know, from, from these things. I still remember myself, you know, like, send us 10 bitcoin and we'll send you 20 back. Back.

Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. You know, must have worked on some people though.

It works, it works on a lot of people, unfortunately.

But yeah, just remember, don't say anything negative about these people because all of us did stupid things at any point. You know, I have nice people that work hard, like for example, in my discord. So there are pieces of everywhere, right? There are people that, they have my face and they do take my name and then contact my community. It's, it's not just me. There are people that, you know, get contacted by Johnny Depp, you know, and they think they are talking to Johnny Depp. But you know, look, all of us can do mistakes, right? And there are some people that got hurt by these things, you know, because they are good people, they trust others, you know, they want, they want to, you know, particular people like me, they see my picture, oh, you know, this is Giovani. And then they get heart, right? By way, if anybody contact you like that, say send me money or whatever and it's me, you know, it's not me. So absolutely, I would never do your do anything like that. Double make double sure, you know, that we have the same discord in common and so on. Always double check. If something is too good, then you know, probably it's fake. And this is why we never tell you, oh, you know, you're going to double your money in three months, you know, that is, yeah. Oh, you know, it's reasonable. It's, you know, it's, it's like I, I, my friend, he was making what daddy was doing like 5, 6, 7, 7% a month. And he started to tell me, this is one of my best friends. He said, can we push it to 20?

No.

I mean, we could, we could. But in fact, me and Marcos met together and we say, let's tune it down, you know, let's tune it down a little bit.

Yeah, because it's doing too well, you.

Know, it's doing too well. Let's tune it down. So it doesn't have this crazy expectation, but it's good because you're taking risk. Right. You're making more risky. Yes. We could do 20, 30, whatever, but then it becomes really risky and we don't want that. We want you to keep your Bitcoin, not even getting troubled, you know?

Yes.

Because capital preservation, it's the rule number one for any investor. You don't want to use your. Because it took a long time for you to get that money and you should never lose it. You know, that is our priority number one. And so we rather you to make 4% a month and keep your money then, you know, trying to show you, oh, we can do 20.

And.

And it's scam. It's a scam, you know, so we, we don't do that.

Right.

All right. Do you have any concluding remarks, guy? Anything you want to say? Because we can wrap it up.

No, I'm good.

No, nothing from us.

Just.

Yeah.

Anyone that's going to come to the live conference, just. Yeah, please come drop past our booth. I'm happy to do a live demonstration one on one as well with my laptop, anyone that wants to see.

And we'll.

We'll have a lot of different things set up. So, you know, we're really excited to meet anyone, regardless of whether you're interested in buying our products or not. Just come drop past, say hello and we're excited to meet everyone.

Yeah. And I will be there to, you know, maybe with a power law charts and we can talk about the power law, whatever. If you have any questions or whatever. Okay, then. It was a nice meeting. We will be here next Thursday. This is something that going to happen every single Thursday. So put it in your calendar every time. 5, 30, PST. All right, guys, see you soon. See you in Vegas. We are not going to have a. Another meeting before the conference, right? One more, right?

Yeah, no, I think there's two.

Two more, actually.

One, two more and then the conference. Okay. All right, thank you guys to listen.

Thank you, Giovanni.

See you soon.

All right, thank you.

Bye, everybody.

Bye.