A short YouTube commentary by Kosta Ouzas about Bitcoin daily-chart price action. The speaker uses a dice/Warhammer analogy to explain probabilistic predictions, warns that 10–30% deviations reduce precision, and describes using the first three data points in a decay inside an "orange channel" to predict a fourth point "within probably $10,000."
Within probably $10,000.
You know, I play a lot of these games where you have to throw dices, you know, like Warhammer. It's luck, you know, when you get the six, people pay attention. When you get the three, people don't pay attention. It's the same probability to get the three on a six, you know, so it will not be very different as a prediction. Now, if we talk about 10, 20, 30% deviation, you know, it starts to be less precise because, you know, these predictions that we are mentioning, like, for example, you could have used the first three data points in the decay in that orange channel that I described and predicted the fourth one last cycle within what? Within probably $10,000.
