https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dRz_EK02QsI

Hi everybody. This is the Bitcoin live show. I'm here with the Manator team.

Hello.

Hey everybody. In fact, let's introduce a little bit everybody for the people that maybe don't know the show. So we have Costa, that is the CEO of Minotaur Trading Systems. And we have Marcus. Hi, Marcus, Sebastian and Giovanni. So the show we are basically looking at the latest activity using our specific tools. That is basically we are looking at the price through our trading view indicators based on the power law. I'm going to share one of them right now. So I call this indicator the bimodel indicator because so we're using relatively sophisticated techniques. I posted about in the last few days about this is called the Markov chain. It looks like, you know, the blue line is the dividing line, but that happens. It's just a confirmation with a power law. It's a good demarcation between the different behavior of Bitcoin. But really we trained this.

Tool.

It's what that tool does. It identifies states in a system. Things that are similar to each other from a probability point of view and things that are different. You can say, okay, I want to find two main states in this system and then you will identify these states. Or I want to find three states probably will be better. In fact, I will adapt it eventually to find three states because we do have a state that is a transition between these two. But you can see they are color coded, right? So we call this state below. So I thought it turns also. It turns out that is also associated with being above or below the power law. The power law is the blue line. The white line is what we call the support line which is basically identifying all the bottoms is parallel to the blue line. It's about 60% deviation from the blue line. That represents the, you know, kind of a remedial of fair value price of the coin based on the power law. But then you can train the system using this technique. It's called a Markov chain. It's. It's been. It's kind of interesting because Veritasium with his a very nice scientific YouTube channel. Just other an entire episode on this technique and how it is applied to so many things I posted on my X if you're interested. And so I use the same technique to identify states in Bitcoin. And you can see two main states is turbulent flow and then the core power law. So we spend about two years along the core power law. Then we leave it and we go in this turbulent region that is basically kind of like the Power law. But is shifty because the mean shifts. The mean value for the power law shifts. But also you get a large deviation towards the right of a distribution. So large values. So these are. Has been something very common in previous cycles. They are all characterized in this way. Few times we we added these regions where we were not supposed to have them. During the core of event we quickly we had a correction that brought us back to the core. And it happened also briefly during this time. Probably this was due to the ETFs. The price was pushed up quite a bit. And then this November we entered the turbulent area. Everything seemed kind of to repeat the same patterns. Because what we. Like I like I said, we see two years in the core. Then we leave to go to the turbulent region. And we spent two years there. But this time something is different because after spending some months we in theory we should have like. Like I up in the past, you know, we should have deviated very much from the power law. Instead of we kind of stay close to the power law. And then in fact we went below and we enter again this green area that usually never happens during this turbulent flow region. And then we went back and now we seem simply to oscillate back and forth moving along the power law. That is strange because know for being a bull period. So that is something to consider. And again, you know, seemed that recently we had this bullish move where we thought okay, maybe, okay maybe this time we are actually leaving. You know, we are going towards maybe a possible maximum. We. We discussed this in other episodes that we establish this prediction that is not, you know, based on Vibes. It's based on calculation. Many people do this prediction based on Vibes. But you know, everything repeated as in the past. We. We are supposed to go towards 200. But you know, this seemed very prompt, you know, very A good signs that we are moving, moving in that direction. And now we are simply costing again along with power law. And we added this recent correction. So it's very confusing, I would say. I don't know how to make sense of this. You know. Seems that Bitcoin seems to be floating around the power law. It likes the power law too much. So that is okay. Because if we continue to move along this line, it's fine. You know, but it's different from other bull markets that we had in the past. Let me also share one more graph. I will stop sharing this one. Let me share this one. It is about. Watch the global liquidity. Just give me a second. Okay, this one. So this is A graph instead about the global liquidity. So we see Bitcoin, the power law, the support line here below. And then we see this purple and green line. So this purple and green line are projections of the expected price based on liquidity. The. The important thing. So I transform, I got, you know, from liquidity that is measured, you know, in total dollars in circulation into a bitcoin price. But it's. It's a transformation that should not be taken seriously in terms of the amount, you know, because liquidity is not very good to calculate the precise amount of, you know, the value of the. The coin price is more directional. So are we turning up. You can see it kind of track pretty well.

At least some sections.

Other sections not so well. Here, for example, went up and here went down many, many times. When people show these graphs, they kind of cut off all the inconvenient parts. But, you know, if you want to be honest, you have to show how well they correlate. Now, it turns out I did a little bit deeper analysis. It's about something like close to 70%, 70% of the time when the price, when the liquidity goes up, this is global liquidity, the price also goes up. So directionally, it's a good indicator of maybe what to expect over a relatively short amount of time. And it turns out that there is also a delay that is about 81 days. We also find this delay not by choosing some value at random, but repeating this analysis over and over until we got the best possible fit. And this indicator below here shows the winning rate. So it's a way of going from something that is, you know, kind of one directional, right, that goes up to an oscillator. So the oscillator here is basically we are smoothing these lines and the difference between the purple and the green is that the green is just a smoother version of a purple line. And then we calculate how many times we went up relatively to how many times we went down in a moving window. And so that it's a good way of tracking the direction, right, of both quantities. And you can see they kind of follow each other, right. It's more coordinated at the bottom that are the tops. But it's, you know, give us some, some further information. So right now what we are looking at, right, is that we continue to go up of the two are in agreement. It was a turning point here and for the next few months, because I remember there is a delay of 81 days. We are supposed to go up. Now, to be honest, we see a little Bit of a turning down in the global liquidity. Now, does it mean that the price will also go down? And we'll have to see if this pattern continues for a long time. Then it's possible that after this delay is passed by, so, you know, we are talking about all the way to September, then there it be. So end of September, there'll be a turning in the price. But it's not confirmed. Right. It will be just temporary. But it's something to notice that global liquidity was moving very, very fast up and now it's taking kind of a break that we will see if price follows along, but at least we should see a movement up for quite a bit. Right. For at least few months ahead of us. Okay, so this is what I have to say right now about the price. Using these indicators we have, we have many more, but we focus on few of them at the time. Okay. I'm going to leave the floor to Marcus with his analysis of a local liquidity instead of a global liquid.

Okay. All right, let's. Let's see if I can keep the narrative going here, see if we can keep the momentum going. Giovanni calls G G Money calls for three more months of upside. So let me see if I can back into that. I am sharing my screen. There we go. So I always like to start off with just a very basic trading view chart. And anybody can. Has access to this. And there's a. There's some interesting correlations that's going on in the marketplace that's a little bit different than in the past. A little bit different. And what we have here now. Let me cut that alert off. That is a large order alert. Let me find that. It's going to keep doing that. Let me, let me cut that off. Give me just a second here. If y' all hear it, maybe you hear it, maybe you don't.

No, we don't hear it.

Okay, then it's not bothering. Okay, great. All right, so what we've been having is since the, since the institutions have come in here to ETFs, we're getting a different behavior than we used to get in Bitcoin. Getting these clear, very clear accumulation zones. These are very clear, clear accumulation zones where we accumulate and then we just, we just, we displace, accumulate and displace, accumulate, displace, accumulate, displace. Okay. So. And I love this pattern. I. This is just. This is Christmas for me. What's so good about this pattern? And it's very uniform and it gives you time. This is, this is, this is clear institutional activity. This is how they do it. They don't just. So let me just use as a comparison here really quick. We'll go to the last time we had liquidity we had a big liquidity zone here and then we finally broke out of it here. But when we displaced this, this liquidity here we basically ripped through it very quickly which is a kind of an indication of more retail and short term holders in the marketplace. Not so much institution just driving that particular displacement there. So I just wanted to kind of start by showcasing that, that we're kind of in a different ball game now. And as far as in my opinion I don't think it's going to go back. It's just going to become more and more stable. This type patterns can go on for a long time because it's stable when it's not as stable when it rips it has to correct just about as quickly as it goes up. But these type of patterns here can just continue for a long time. So sticking to the three month statement that GEO made, let me add in the, gonna add in the liquidity now so we can see the context behind the price action. And just for those that are new we like to use the futures market, the derivatives because derivatives is the leverage money. Leverage money is a lot bigger, faster so the bubbles are created and they're also mitigated fastest. And derivatives, so derivatives is price discovery engine so that's why we use it. So let's, let's put in the liquidity. Here's all the liquidity now so we get some context to the price action. I like to keep things extremely simple but powerful. As we can see we are clearly, clearly displacing this short side liquidity which are basically these are shorts here, this is a short pool. This short side liquidity has been building since December of the first of the year and it's an enormous, enormous pool of leveraged positions in the perpetual market. I'm we're going all the way from 3.5x 10x 25x and there's also 150x in there as well. A lot of those have gotten taken out but that's what's kind of on the table. On the table 25 to 3. Naturally when I get on the call and mark the market wants to move. As we can see right now it's actually moving. So let's, let's take a little bit closer look at the real time movement that we're getting. I'm just gonna drill in here. Yeah, we're actually taking out some concentrated 25x. I'm getting my speakers are going off with all kind of alerts right here. It's going on right now. We've been kind of going at this all day. So we're actually moving into this pool. So now that I'm here, I'm gonna highlight a very simple, simple fundamental basis here. These guys down here, this is a, these are longs that have been entering in positions ever since we got into this consolidation channel for two weeks. They, these are long traders that have been trading 25x positions. So they've been trading in here and their stop losses, drawdown, exits and liquid liquidation levels are in these pools. So as you can see they've been steadily getting larger the composition and more dense. Ready to harvest these guys down here. This is a, these are longs that. So the simple fundamentals behind this is these are forced. When these, when this price hits these positions, these are going to be for sellers. So here's these people are going to be selling low. They're selling low. So then these four sellers. So what the institutions do, they grab this liquidity here and then right up here, these shorts, same thing. People making bets on both sides. These shorts are forced buyers. So you, the institutions are buying low, selling high. The retail small traders now when we say small traders is James when he's throwing $100 million a trade around so you can have big retail traders to doing the same dumb things. So they're selling low and buying back high. So it's a simple business model. Incredibly simple. If you have just a little bit of insight and a little bit of patience to go with it, you can do the same things they do. That's what we do at Minotaur. We trade market maker business model. We use a market maker type of algorithm and we heart, we harvest like they harvest. We grab these positions down here because the way I look at it, this is discount inventory. If I go to a store, I want to buy things I go to Costco or Sam's. I don't know where you live but when you go to a wholesaler, you want to buy wholesale from these guys who are going to sell it to me. And then I already know these guys want to buy. They're already waving hey, I want to buy it, I want to buy it at 124. So I'm going to come down here and buy it at 112, 110, 115 and sell it to these guys at 121, 124, 122. I mean, how easy is that? The key is you don't want to trade in here. You want to take the liquidity like the institutions do. That's what they're doing. They're moving from one side to the other. So the beauty of this is a lot of retailers, they get bored here. Oh, the market's not doing anything. It's not going anywhere, and they want to move. When it's doing that, that is the absolute worst time to get in the market. That's when you close positions out. So when this market finally gets ready to impulse, we'll close out and we'll do it all over again. So just want to throw that little side note in here. Let me get back on track or where the market's going. So I'm gonna put the liquidity back. What's interesting here is because the institutions are, are consolidating. As long as they are. This consolidation is actually a great thing. And I'll explain why. You can see right here, we had this new, what's called new organic liquidity. This liquidity came in from this consolidation period that we've been in. We kind of been in one big consolidation period other than this very short displacement here. We've been consolidating. But what that consolidation is doing, that's growing this pool bigger. So if we didn't have the consolidation, this isn't an extra 10%. This is 10%. So this consolidation is creating. Well, from back here when we first started consolidating, it's creating 10 extra percent. Why is that important? It's important because. And now we get in this little baby addition here. So we're already up here now. Now we're at 154. So trying to get some confluence to what Giovanni is saying. So now we're talking about the. The. This will eventually grow in. This will. This will come. This will pack in. So we're at 152 now. 153, 154. Then we put an additional 20 on top of that for the discovery of the new range. It's up here at about 180. So I'm helping you out, Geo. I'm gonna get you there. So here we go. So we're talking now price discovery, where here's a new range, price discovery, 180. Then a new pool gets created up here. So you're at. You're at 200 now. So I don't know how it happens, but always seems to work out in the end. We need this to create the liquidity. To fill us up to where we need to be. Before we had this consolidation period, we were here. We're at the 130s. Well now we're at the we're bit. We're not quite there yet. We're building it in. We're building in all the way up to 150. It's gonna build in. So there's the 150. So that's why the liquidity is taken in zones. This is 1, 2 and 3. This is 3x here. This is all 3x 5x 10x. Well I messed up here. It's actually. This is 3, 5, 10 and 25. There it is. So all that's necessary. Necessary to get us to the 200 that we're looking at. I'll just show you for context. Let's go back and look at the last displacement we had. This was in 2024. Where we didn't have the institutional institutions to back. And it's like the institutions are adding buoyancy to the ship. The ballast stones, they're giving it buoyancy. When we rip fast like this, we didn't get that liquidity growth. You see how it's just flat here. There's no additional growth because it moved so fast that you just only got this tiny little bit right here. Just that. So compare that to where we are now. Because the institutions are consolidating more and accumulating more. This is. This is gold right here. This is the most valuable thing we have because this is creating. It's creating all of this right here. It's giving us that. So now we have the fuel that we need. The locked in trapped sellers, I mean trap buyers that we need to get us up there. Somebody's gotta. Somebody's got to buy all this stuff here. Yeah. Somebody. You got. You have the institutions right here adding to their positions. They're going to sell to these guys. It's already waiting cash in hand, locked in fried chicken. So I think that's very promising that we have a path, a very clear path to getting us way, way up there. We're talking. I see 150 already on the board.

Yeah, yeah. I would like. I would like to. If we went in that red region before going down again. Mostly because I have some open position there to sell.

You want to.

Yeah.

You wanna. You're here. You're right here.

Yeah, yeah, yeah. These what they were like?

Yeah, yeah. But we're going there. Yeah, you're in good shape. This is just a Level two, if you think about it, makes sense. If you have all of these buyers concentrated in here, you need to pick up a little discount inventory so you can sell it to them. If you go up there too quick, you don't have anything to sell. Remember, the market makers got to balance out there.

Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. We, we tried to do that in the last few little, but it was not enough. Good enough.

Yeah, they did it right here. It picked up that inventory there. They picked up inventory here, sold it to these guys. Now they got a Paul, that's billions of dollars. They got a pause on that pause. Pick up a little bit more, sell these guys. Then we get up here, we'll do it again until we get out of here.

Yeah, I can see that.

Yeah, very good. Yep. All right, all right.

Okay. And what about Sebastian?

Yes, hello everyone. I'll go ahead and share my screen and I'll give everyone some insight into what the algorithm has been doing over the course of the last week or so. Just let me know when everyone can see.

We see. See you.

Okay, cool. Perfect. Well, welcome everyone. For anyone new that's watching the show, I'm the CTO of Minotaur Trading Systems, and I'm just going to be giving you guys a brief overview of the algorithm that we've built, its capabilities, and kind of what it does. Trading live price action. I've also got a free indicator loaded on the chart which is just a free open interest futures liquidity indicator on trading view, which gives us a rough idea of kind of where the liquidity levels are sitting. And as we can see, just like it was seen on Marcus's screen, we just had a big wick down that took all that liquidity out and now we're on the way back up, which is usually what, what happens. So we've got an algorithm that is built to trade Bitcoin and different things. It's important to understand that you can use this algorithm as a way to simply generate passive income for yourself or generate exposure and yield into Bitcoin while significantly minimizing the risk. Now you can do this trading Bitcoin against USDT futures contracts to receive profits in usdt. You can also collateralize your Bitcoin and use that as a collateral, meaning you can gain USDT profits from holding your Bitcoin without selling your Bitcoin, which is something that's very, very unique. Now, the way we do this is it's a consultation service that we give you alongside the algorithms and we will show you how to do everything so if you're someone who doesn't have a lot of experience in the market, it doesn't really matter too much. We will basically hold your hand and guide you through the process of running the algorithms and getting them set. Now let's take a look at how the algorithm actually trades, because this is really important. What we've got here basically is live 15 minute candlestick data on Bitcoin's price. And as we can see, we've kind of been trading in this range over the last week and couple weeks, Right. So we're kind of just moving in this range. And as Marcus just showed, this is essentially just the market gearing itself and preparing for the next kind of leg up, which is exactly what it does. Right. We need to move sideways to consolidate, and we need to move sideways to prepare for the next leg. But what's really cool about the algorithm is, especially if you're someone who's just sitting there holding Bitcoin, the psychology plays a big factor. And a lot of people go, oh, this is so boring. Bitcoin's moving sideways. This isn't fun. Well, I can tell you, for anyone that runs our algorithm, it is exciting for us because we have the ability to generate yield when Bitcoin isn't really doing much. And I think I want to show everyone how this works, because it's very important. The algorithm is not just built right for trading up. It's actually designed to have most of the profit when the market is falling. So it is profitable in every single market condition, but it really favors selling pressure, which is something that's very, very unique because most algorithms fall apart when the market turns bearish, whereas ours actually shines in those moments. But let's get a look at what the algorithm is actually doing so we can get an understanding of why this actually works. So we'll start from the left hand of the screen here, and we can see that the algorithm takes a long position. The cool thing you'll see is that these liquidity pools are basically concentrated futures positions. And when price touches these levels, people are actually getting liquidated. So something that's really unique about what we're doing here is we're actually buying into the liquidations. We're not fearful and we're not putting ourselves in a position where we're at risk. We're actually essentially buying the areas that the liquidations are occurring, which puts you in a huge advantage to essentially gain yield. Right. So we took our first position here. The market moved against us. The algorithm didn't worry about that, right? It has no emotion, it doesn't sleep, it doesn't worry about what Bitcoin's price is doing on a day to day basis, right? It removes all of that. And when the market moves against us, we're not fearful because we're excited to pick up more positions and we make another buy here, we make another buy here, we make another buy here. And that puts us in a position for when the pump does happen, we're able to exit our positions in a profit. And as it always does, the key principle of mean reversion, when price reverts, eventually it comes back and as you can see, price increases, we take our profit and that's it. So during this period, believe it or not, in between this small, tiny price action between 120 and, and 117, the amount of liquidations occurring are gigantic. Right? So what most people don't realize is day traders struggle to trade Even, you know, 5 to 10% ranges without getting liquidated. Where our algorithm really is shining in these kind of moments. Now, if we have a look at what else is happening, the algorithm essentially waits, makes its next buy, and we have a similar situation play out. Once again, the market moves against us. This time it's pretty violent, but, but it's important to see what's happening because there's this huge pool of liquidity here. And what's the algorithm doing? It's not getting liquidated, it's picking up more positions. We buy more, we buy more, we make our last buy essentially at the bottom of the liquidity after it's already been taken. And now we know the algorithm's in a really good position to take profit, Price bounces back up as it always, and we close all up as a profit. So what saying is the algorithm able to trade when the market's going up, able to pick up more positions when the market's going down, but more than anything else, able to execute at a high level without worrying about whether they're going to win or lose the trades. This is the most important part to have success in this market because essentially our emotion is never going to allow us to be profitable. Now as we come across, this is an example of the algorithm taking a long position market moving favorably upwards and us just closing. So as you can see, when the market goes up, the algorithm is not stressed. When the market goes down, the algorithm is not stressed.

Right.

And I want to show you a trade here once again. When the market goes sideways and is ranging when not much is happening, this is Another really key important thing of what the algorithm does well, it's not thinking and getting bored in these sideways price actions, right? So most retail traders are trying to highly leverage futures positions and just getting stopped out, stopped out, stopped out, stopped out. And it doesn't work. Right? Whereas the algorithm is always patient. If the market's moving sideways, it doesn't care because it knows there's going to be an opportunity for it to buy again at value and exit its position. So in my opinion, impatience and kind of, you know, feeling like the market's boring or not doing anything, this is just emotions that are going to cause you to lose your trades, right? It doesn't actually really mean anything. Now the market has a big sell off, takes out this pool, we go long again right at the bottom of the pool. The market runs up, we close our position at the top of the pool. As you can see, the algorithm stopped taking buys here. If you look what's happened now since this point, we've had a 3.2% dump and the algorithm has not entered again, right? So this is very unique. It's waiting because the technicals are telling it that there's more selling pressure coming. And as you can see it, it made the right decision because any regular standard math spaced algorithm, every time the market has any form of dips, we'll start buying, right? We'll start buying, we'll start buying. But our algorithm is not doing that, right, because it's got self built intelligence that understands when to buy and when to sell. So it's very unique. So you know anyone that's interested in algorithm that can completely remove the emotion from their trading, put them in a position where they can get realistic long term sustainable gains. This is what we're about at Minotaur, right? We're not about get rich quick, we're not about over leveraging and having high liquidation levels and doing degen stuff, trading with meme coins, right? We're about building sustainable algorithms that can trade Bitcoin now and can train Bitcoin for the future, for the next 10, 20 years, as long as we need to. So anyone that's interested, please book a call with our team. Happy to talk to you for free. It doesn't cost anything and we'll run you through the whole system. Thanks Giovanni.

No problem. Thank you so much for your great explanation. Costa, do you want to add anything to this?

Yeah, can you hear me?

Yeah, perfectly.

Yeah, yeah, just a, just a bit on that. Like with the tools that are available to us, especially with the Exchanges that we're using and a lot of our clients are using. It makes it very exciting because we've got, you know, sort of. We're kind of like. We're kind of like supporting two teams, right? It's like you're at a soccer match and you're. And you want both of them to win. Because we've. Most of us are using Bitcoin because we're using Giovanni's algorithm in order to know where we are in the cycle. So when we're below the power mean, we're accumulating Bitcoin, and when we're significantly above that, we'll rebalance. So, you know, half of us is. Is wanting the Bitcoin price to go up, right? We're cheering it, we want it to go up, we've gotten to go up. But when we deploy the Minotaur algorithm, it's actually. Which is so counterintuitive, we actually make less money when it's going in a straight line up. We want the market to be volatile, right? Because what we're doing essentially is capturing volatility. That's what our algorithm is doing. It's capturing that volatility. And when the market's pulling back counterintuitively, we make more money. Because what we're able to do is we're able to accumulate a larger position over time. Then where Giovanni comes in, the missing piece of the puzzle is we're calibrating everything off the power law support, which statistically is a range that has never been broken. So putting all that together, it makes it interesting in a time like this, because I'm actually really, really happy that we're actually breaking down. 115, 114 looks like 112, 110, because I'm just going to accumulate a bunch of positions. And my overall bias is bullish, especially at this point, point in the cycle, as we can see from what Marcus showed us. But, you know, why not increase my position size on the way? Increase my. My total profit because the volume of my trades are going to increase. So basically it doesn't matter what's happening here, ultimately I'm going to be having a larger position, more profitable positions, and then I can, you know, buy more Bitcoin, which is what we're all doing. So, yeah, from a Minotaur perspective, the volatility right now, it has been a bit boring. But what's boring, like two weeks, really. Today we sign in and the market's. It's got a little candle like this. Size doesn't take Very long for something to happen. So, you know, as much as we'd like the price to be 180, 200 tomorrow, I think Marcus is right in saying that. The smart. I guess Giovanni says it too. It's like, we don't want things to go up too fast. It's, like, not sustainable. That's not. You don't want to be on something like that. So, yeah, no, it's looking good. And. And if you want the tools that we're all using, including Giovani's indicators or the Minotaur algorithm, you know, we're here to help. We're here to provide them to you. So, you know, book a call with. With either one of us. That's all I wanted to add today. And one more thing, actually, I will share my screen because we do track these, and I'll just give an update because we just did a trade while we was talking. We'll show that as well. Gonna let that screen share go through Gio.

Yeah.

Yeah. You can see here that this. This tr. This was just bought just now on the price. So, you know, while we're literally talking, I'm now entering my third position position. So you can actually see what's going on here pretty easily. This orange line is yet to drop down, I think, because the timing is just so. It's like literally just happened right. Right now. But that average. The orange line is our average price, which is called the wap. The green line there is that TP line there. And I'm now into my second safety order. That's what we call them. Safety order. So the first one was initiated here at 117. We just placed a trade here at 114. So like Marcus was saying, we're operating like the market makers. The market makers now looking to buy these levels. And that's what we're doing. We're doing in the mathematic, you know, using very precise mathematical deviations and. And really systematic execution. So all this is handled completely manually. So this always executed while I was talking to you guys, which is really cool. And I think that Marcus's phone pinging this time. He's probably a bunch of other bots that have entered positions, right?

Yeah, I guess. Yeah. They're court. They're coordinating with me. I'm at. I'm at Costco right now, man. I'm picking up some wholesale Bitcoin. See y'.

All.

See, I'll see y' all at the wholesale store.

Yeah. So I know from. From our perspective, I think things still look Good things are on track. Nothing too out of ordinary. I, I think, I think, I think once that price gets to that 140 to 160, the conversation will start to change a little bit though because you know, those prices, as the prices do get overheated, I think that the, the chances of severe corrections become possible and then we need to start, you know, really considering what we're going to do differently. But I think that's a conversation for maybe September, October. Right? Geo.

Yeah, let's get up there.

You guys want to answer some of these questions?

I think 110, it looks like.

Yeah, at the low. 1101-121101-12112.

Maybe a week down to 109 could.

There's liquidity. We see a lot of liquidity down to below 112. It's sitting at 112 now. So yeah, you can probably get a crazy week there.

What you have to understand is that, look, look at, look at the, the 3x leverages. So, so what we're chasing now is the 25x leverage positions, right? That's what the market makers are looking for. The real magnet is those three X pools. That's not going to allow this price to get too far down. It's not going to chase the, no liquidity. It's going to chase where it is. So it's, it's only doing. It's, it's. What's going on right now is very, very short term. It looks like it's chasing those huge liquidity pools. And just, just think about it, right? If you had people on your exchange that are constantly making 100x25x leverage positions, as soon as the price goes up, they enter these super leveraged trades. If the price just went up forever, everyone's going to become a millionaire overnight, right. They're all going to be doing 100x, you know, big as a trade and no one gets liquidated. Everyone takes profits. So just think about it, right? Everyone knows that finance plays this game.

It has to distribute. It has to distribute the money.

Yeah, yeah, that's right. There's a reason that it cascades from the highest leverage to the lowest leverage in that order. Right. That's not like happening at random. It's by design. That's what the futures market actually is.

Correct. And the futures market now is done to really see that we're spending a lot of time investigating these is the process discovery really is happening in the futures market.

It does. That's where in the spot, the Spot corrects to the futures. If the, if it gets too much of a disparity, then the big institutions will buy or sell the spot to. To arbitrage it back in.

Yeah. All right, next one.

Jim. Yeah. So this is for me. Any update? Well, I'm talking about that all the time. All. But look, this is how it works, right? That prediction is based on everything happening exactly like the previous cycles. And we have repeated many, many times that we are not repeating the same cycle. We are doing something weird. It's different now. Why that is different, I don't know. You know, it could be that it's because of ETFs, it's because of Sailor or whatever, you know, it doesn't behave like at least you know, not the Power Law because if anything, the Power Law is becoming stronger. So it's not something, you know, like, oh, okay, the Power Law doesn't work anymore. No, it works too well. That is the problem. We are. We are following the Power Law too much. You know, usually that the bull is when we deviate from the Power Law. It's the exception, you know, and then we corrected ourselves and we go back to the Power Law. This time we are even during the bull market. We are too close to the Power Law. We are not leaving the Power Law. So you know, it. I said this many times. As we come closer to end of the year, the possibility that we go to. To this 200k that was calculated based on the patterns from the previous cycles becomes less and less likely. And just once there also the following question. You know, because you have a. This why people write, make their name unreadable. Why we try 5 RC like a bunch of random letters. I like the guy because he's always following us. Etc.

Yeah, yeah. Hey, that's his wallet address. Diovana. He wants you to make a deposit.

Okay.

Yeah, yeah.

He's one of our friends, you know, so I'm not trying to make fun of you, but I cannot read your name. I call you. Why? Why V so yv. So you know, to follow this in the same line. And this is kind of actually a general analysis or general comment on all these people that make predictions, right? There are two type of predictions. There are vibe prediction where they are worthless. I don't know. Right. They say, oh, and you know, this happens also on some of the magazines, Bitcoin magazines or some of the shows, etc. We talk with Michael Seller and he makes this prediction. We talk with Tom Lee and when you ask them, you know, how do you arrive to this number, it's a, it's a story. They make up a story. There is no really any analytical method, right? In our case we follow analytical method. Now is it a guaranteed that because we follow an analytical method, we are going to reach that value? No, but at least you know the logic, right? You know which logic we follow to arrive to that. And then given the premise, if a premise don't hold, then the conclusion doesn't hold. But at least you are consistent, right? It's not something that is made up out in here. So we know that things are now going like before. There is still a chance. Because Bitcoin can do crazy things and catch up and go all the way to 200k in few months. It's not completely excluded. But anything else after that it becomes a gas. So it's not because we didn't have a peak in the end of a year like we did all the other time, but now we need to have it in the beginning of January, now we need to have it in the middle of 2026? No, because once we don't see the pattern that we saw before it becomes a guess, until we have enough information, maybe another pattern is establish itself and then we can use that pattern to make prediction. But right now, if what, what happened in the previous cycles doesn't repeat, that doesn't give you leeway to say, well then this other thing will happen. You don't know because there is not enough information. It's like we, we started from scratch. We only think that we are left with it's a power law because that does not be violated. That is became. It continues to be a backbone for our analysis. But the cycle analysis, it's up in the air, you know, so all the people that talk about an extended cycle, they are making up. We don't know. The only answer, the only valid and sincere and honest answer is that at that point we don't know. We simply don't know, okay, that that is how it should be approach this new uncertainty that we have it. We don't have cycles. It seems if anything that the cycles are not there anymore. You know, we are at least we are not pronounced as before.

And, and the, and the people that are trying to pretend they know when they don't know, they're calling themselves cycle agnostic. But that just means that they're not willing to say they don't know, they're just creating a fancy word for it, right?

So.

And you know. Yeah, but I mean, look, even my prediction of 200k was based on this idea that the peaks are going to decay. That. And, and I got a lot of pushback when I did this calculation because there were people saying, oh, we got to 400, oh, we go to a million. All kind of stuff like that, right. They were saying within this year, right. We were going to a million. Can you imagine? It's, it's ridiculous now, you know, if you don't even reach 200k. Okay, I, I'm not, I don't think it's boring. I mean, bitcoin is, Bitcoin is going to, is not going to have this crazy bullish periods now. These bullish periods. I don't know why people felt we were so exciting. Because, okay, yes, we're excited. Maybe they bring in new people because we see or you know, but expectation has always been one. Very few people are the expectation. Oh, we reach a peak and then we have a correction, right. Some people expected that and took advantage of that because they can sell high and buy low. But the majority always thought that we were going up, up, right. That now this was the new way bitcoin behave, that we were going to continue this crazy behavior, at least for a long time. Right. Because people still buy on the top. That means they are expecting the price to go even higher than that. Right. That what happened every single cycle. Very few people at, you know, the insight of understanding that this was not sustainable. They sold and then they brought up the portal. Unless you are one of these four few people. Yeah, it's boring. But also, you know, we're talking about money. We're not talking about going to a roller coaster. Right. If you want to have a, the kind of fun and adrenaline, go, you know, to some kind of Vegas. Yeah. You know, to kind of roller coaster ride, you know, and have fun there. We are talking about a serious thing. So actually, to be honest, maybe it's a good thing we don't have these crazy bubbles anymore. We have plenty of volatility. You can see, you can watch plenty, plenty of volatility. It's just that now you have to be a little bit more clever on how to use it, right? And this is why these tools that we are developing are very powerful. You don't need to have. And, and I, to be honest, actually probably they became even more powerful because, you know, if you had like a. Imagine we have a correction downwards for one year, right. You can use our tools, but you always count on the price. Recovering a little bit, right? Recovering a little bit. But if we do that all the time, right. We go up, we don't need a lot of. Right. You know, we don't need to go up for a long time. We just need to do it for a little bit where we take gains and we do this repeat, repeat, repeat. And I already show, I didn't include. I did a calculation. I showed these graphs. I share them some time ago. I can share them again. Let's see if I can find them. I already calculated that if you use some of you of anything. In fact I left it where. I didn't care how you do this. But if you find a little bit of. Let me see if I can find the graph that I want to share. If you find any way of getting these graphs, if you find any way of getting any type of. Stop sharing.

Here.

So if you find any way to get any type of yield on Bitcoin and you can do it you doing, you know, maybe cover calls or whatever. You are going back to the behavior of bitcoin of several years ago. So what these graphs are showing, I'm. I'm showing here what are the expected returns over one year for the future. So it's this line here that you're seeing here and you see there the black line is a real data. They are oscillating, you know, with peaks and lows because of the bubbles. You know, we're here when we have a bubble. You make you have a huge big returns. There are years where you have a bottom. You, you make. You know, basically you are on in a loss. But you can see the blue line which is a power law. It's a good representation of the average return of a years. And you, you see it's going down. It's kind of flattening. It's not really. It's never going to flat computer. But basically it's going down slower and slower. It's going down but it's also going down slower and slower the bigger. In the early days it was going down much faster. Right. So it's kind of, kind of almost stabilizing. And this is the projected gains in in the future. Now what they did here and you can see these are projection for the future, right. So I'm focusing on zooming in in this projected area so you can see it better. So the blue line is what we are expecting only if you all the Bitcoin, right. If you are order and here I did only a 1.5% yield per month. That is very reasonable. You should be able, you know, even if you do don't know much about Options, you should be able to do that relatively easy with COVID calls. But you can also use our bot and our bot is doing very more than 1.5%. But just to be on the safe side, I use 1.5, 1.5%. Now what happens? Well, you go from a 45 return this year to almost a 60% return. And you know, basically this is almost like you're going back and getting the returns of the coin. I didn't calculate it yet, but let's say five years ago, six years ago. And so you're going to stay. In fact, it will take all the way to 12 years to not even go back to where we are right now. So for the next 12 years you could make, you could have gains that are against that. You had a up to 10 years ago, five years ago. It's really crazy. And when you compound that, right, we're talking about a way of multiplying your bitcoin, basically in 12 years, you could end up with five times more bitcoin than you have right now. Imagine that, right? Without adding any money just by using your own bitcoin to actually produce more bitcoins by doing any type of shield that any technique, including our bot, to multiply. So it's not going to be boring. It's going to be, I would say, more reliable if anything. And with money, again, you know, it's not, we don't, we are not in, in this because it's fun, right? We want to, it's a much, much more serious and important mission. We want to be free. That is the goal. We want to be free. And so if something is more reliable and more precise, you know, I rather that than having all kind of anxiety, you know, about the price going up and down and doing crazy things. You know, that is not the goal. And guys, you want to add any comment from this about this?

I think it's really cool. I just, I just think it shows you how you're, you can almost go back in time if, you know, if you have the right tools, you can get the gains that you might have missed out on many years ago if you joined bitcoin early. So this, you know, this is the opposite of boring in, in our opinion. But.

Yeah, yeah, let's not forget bitcoin's been moving up since 16K. It's really.

Yeah. And, and like, you know, was it 18 months ago? Was it 16K? Was it even that long ago? Two years. It's like, it's wild. And you know, this is just the last phase now so yeah, this, this, this question here, because it goes in, I want to have a good analogy for this too saying the target of 500k to a million is even possible and B to C struggle. So this comes down to, you know, like a good example is.

What lens are you looking through, what school?

Exactly. We are going there, we are going to reach 500k. It's going to take years, you know.

Correct. Yeah, but he's saying, he's saying like, because I'm just reading the next questions. So what this is like, is like I remember about 10, probably 15 years ago and I went to buy a house somewhere in Melbourne and, and, and we went to the auction and I remember that the asking price was 600,000 and it went for 800,000 and it was just like wow, how much that house went for. If you went to buy that house now, it would be at least $2 million. And I reckon people would think it's cheap at $2 million. It's the same thing about Bitcoin. In 10 years time, 500k to a million dollars for the big, for bitcoin is going to be cheap. That's because of the way that the, the money piles into the economy. Right? So everyone knows this, especially if you're from the us, the uk, Canada, probably in Europe as well. Like everything is going to go up because the way the economies are structured over time and with an asset like this, you know, 500k eventually is going to look cheap. Just like that house that I looked at at the time sounded expensive at 800,000 and you'd sell that, you'd sell the clothes off your back to get it for one and a half million five years later, six years later, you know what I mean? So I think it's just about changing your perception of, of basically how the economies work.

I don't know.

Do you guys want to add to that? Do you agree to that?

Yeah, I just want to add that it is not moving slow. It is moving incredibly fast. We're sitting on a planet. I don't know what it's revolving. I think our plan is moving like 24000 miles an hour. We can't tell as moving moving, but it's moving. Bitcoin is moving at light speed. You need these two week corrections because that gives you a chance to go to the pawn shop, sell off some of your old vinyl albums, your sneakers, gun collections, whatever it is you need to do to get liquid and move your money from your Fiat bank. That takes seven days plus three and all that crap, get it into the crypto verse and buy some bitcoin. That two weeks gives you just enough time to go break your piggy banks and get all your money rounded up and just like the institutions and get your positions so you can make life changing money. So it's moving. Actually for me it's moving too fast because I'm trying to get every, shake every tree I got and rake all the leaves and get it out of fiat in here. But it's, it takes time to do that. So it's giving you time to build your position so you can make money.

Yeah. I want to add to that the silliest thing is to want this and Giovanni is, I think this is one of the reasons why I got so attached to Giovanni's work when I first discovered him is that you want this to go slow. Like if this, if this happens too quick, your opportunity, the average person, not the Michael Saylors, but the average person's opportunity is gone. If this goes to a million dollars in the next 12 months, your chances are gone. It's game over. Right. You've missed out.

Yeah. It's getting away.

The fact that you have the power trend, that you have the volatility, that you have the corrections, it is such. It's a beautiful dance. And all you need is enough time, like Marcus says, is to figure out how you can take advantage of it. The worst thing you want is just to play out too quickly. So I can't stress enough. You want these resets to happen, you want the cycles to continue. The cycles are the cherry on the cake. Right. Because if you can have a massive correction, it really does give you the opportunity to increase your stack. One of the only ways to really, really do it the way that we do it with the trading, you can also do it, it's a lot more predictable, but it is going to be a lot slower. The biggest gain that can be made is if you sell at the top and buy back at the bottom. The now again, the bigger position you have, the least likely you're going to do this. Like if I had a million, if I had a thousand bitcoins, I'm not going to sell all my bitcoin at the top and buy back into the bottom. But if I only had half a bitcoin, well, I don't know, I'd probably take that chance because that half bitcoin could then turn into one and a half just from that one move. So, you know, everyone's at different levels and I think one of the issues that, that, this, that this space has is people even at the lowest entry level, copying the strategies of people at the highest level level. Or they're thinking that those are the best strategies to be using, but it's like, no, they work because they're at that level. You need to do what works at your level. So all we're trying to do here is pull together the best tools available, you know, volatility capture and then also power law growth. And also which Giovanni is, you know, just presenting the possibility that cycles in the past have occurred and if they tend to continue, this is what they're going to do. But regardless of that, we have the power law court support, which is, and the support.

One other, one other thing. Costa, did we mention or Sebastian. We also have the ability to mine Bitcoin by doing an inverse where the algorithm can actually work like a minor and make bitcoin for you. Yeah, we haven't talked about that. Maybe we'll talk about it. Maybe we can cover it next week.

Yeah, for sure.

Yeah, I'll, I'll do, How about I'll do a presentation next week on the show and we'll show how to trade inverse contracts, which is basically, you know, we'll dangle the carrot a little bit, but it's using your Bitcoin to mine Bitcoin without the cost.

So, yeah, no, no ace, no ASIC miners in your garage, overheating your house, driving your loved ones crazy. No big facilities. You're mining Bitcoin with an algorithm that's just mind blowingly insane. So if you use your Bitcoin as collateral and you mine bitcoin with it, you're triple dipping the now. So we'll go, we'll give you a triple dip of ice cream next week. Stay tuned. Yeah.

Did we answer this question here from Brent Giovanni, do you want me to answer that?

Yeah, there's a lot of questions here.

Okay, I'll do a couple questions in a row because there's a few. All right, so what is the best legal trading platform for a US citizen to use? Okay, so really good question. So as of right now, the futures landscape is rapidly changing inside the United States. We've started to see the beginning of futures leverage. Perpetual markets opening up for cryptocurrency and they're going to be done on Kraken and on Coinbase. So as of right now, those two are in the midst of rolling those contracts out. They've actually started. So definitely this year that's, that's going to be A go. I think even now, if you're really set on keeping your money inside the United States, which I completely understand that position, I think using Kraken and Coinbase is completely fine. Kraken has to be honest, much better fee structure than Coinbase. It's significantly cheaper. And if you're going to trade spot, I would recommend Kraken over Coinbase. But definitely both those exchanges are really good and they're both going to be rolling out 247 style perpetual futures contracts this year. So it's an exciting time.

Yeah.

Okay, maybe you want to answer this. I don't know.

Okay, let's see.

Marcus, Marcus, question.

Do y' all have insight and why. This is from Boy. Boy. Vo. Boy vote. Okay. Do y' all have insight and why the price didn't go further into the short liquidity? There was only one move into it rather than two or three. Well, it's just, it's not over yet. Yeah, the market is very, very good at showing. Showing you an impulse in the opposite direction. So it's not over. It's going to come back for that third pass. We're in our second impulse. There's. There's another one to go. It's not over yet. Stay tuned.

Yeah, yeah. Don't let the market makers get you because what, what they'll do. And this is an answer for why as well. You know, don't, don't get frustrated because, like, if the market goes down and you start getting bearish on Bitcoin or every time it goes up, you're bullish. That's a really bad position to be in. You know, you want to have confidence in it and not let your emotional capacity get affected when the price dumps, because that's how they get you and that's, that's why retail traders lose. So, you know, you just have to have the mentality that you're in the right place. You know, you are early. We've still got time. You can do this. And don't, you know, don't freak yourself out because the market will do that to you. Really, really easily built to do that.

All right, next. This one.

Yeah, we said that. 109, 110. There's no way.

Okay. Freedom. Yeah. This is the main, ultimate goal. Right?

Yeah.

Liberta.

Good word.

Yeah. And that comes down to.

Sorry, my favorite word is the highest word of all. Because if you think about, if you are not free, if you're annoying, there are slight differences because the bitcoin is traded on Saturday, on Sunday it's traded during the vacations so they are almost identical. The advantage of IB is that, you know, if you want to do options like in particular cover call, it's relatively cheap to buy. I beat because it costs like what, $6. So you can buy a relatively easy, sorry, $60. $60 you can buy with $6,000. You can buy 100 shares and then you can do cover calls with that. So it's a, it's a way of being exposed to bitcoin and at the same time having the liquidity of a, of a stock market. And that is amazing. So that is, you know, I will study all these tools. I will study all the different things that people are doing in our Discord. For example, we had a, a lecture from a very successful member that is doing about 5% a month. Is doing 5% a month with options.

Okay.

With COVID calls. It's. It's incredible, you know, and he's a very clever guy but he explained step by step what he's doing. And I'm going to do some videos, you know, in the share on X because you know, look, while we would like you to use our system because this is what we use and we work and you know, we would like to help people. I. We want bitcoiners to be successful. So personally at least I don't care if you do one of the other boat, you know, you can what is doing. And I'm going to do some videos, you know, in the share on X because you actually both. Yeah, we also do the same with ourselves. So I, I study all these tools that you know, five, 10 years ago they were not there, they didn't exist. So study them, learn some from people that are successful. You know, we are trying to do courses, we are trying to do videos, we are trying to create a community. You know, if you come to our My Discord group we have a, an entire channel where we discuss how to do options etc. So I like IBIT for that reason. In fact I like it better than microstrategy strategy. You know. And even if some people, you know, if you want really to push it, some people like to trade strategy options because we have even more they say volatility and so but you know, I will do that once you learn how to do it with ibit. So I beat first and then do that. But of course the ultimate goal, it's one bitcoin. So these are all tools to have more and more bitcoins. Right. Eventually you want to sell your ibit. I will not Keep IBIT forever because it's still linked to the traditional finance world, but it's a gateway, right? It's a way of doing certain things that you will not be able to do with Bitcoin. You can do, you can do options with Bitcoin directly, but you know, you have to be in Europe for an US citizens. It's easier to do it with ibit versus doing options with Bitcoin because you have a more limited options. There are a lot, a lot of tools that video and exist before.

All right, one last one here. Richard G. He said he's on the fence. I'm just gonna say, Richard, we got a spot right here for you on the bench. We're waiting on you to get in the game. So.

And yeah, I can, I can add to that, like, you know, we, we charge a fixed licensing fee and at the end of the day, like if, you know, when you go into a trade, this is the kind of, this would be a perfect trade, right? A perfect trade, if you're discretionary, is what's my fixed max loss and what's asymmetrical upside. In other words, I know how much I can possibly lose, but the upside is asymmetrical, right? It far outweighs it. So the cost of the system, the licensing fee, right, that's really the maximum that you're putting at risk. But the potential upside of this algorithm working in the way that Giovanni is saying, and we're saying is that it's, it's perpetually going to give you a volatility capturing machine in perpetuity, right? So it's an asymmetrical return for you there. So if you're on the fence, that's all you got to consider. It's just, it's just a logic. Just, just look at the numbers, you know, do your pros and cons and make a logical assessment. On the one hand, all you're giving away is some money. On the other side, what you're gaining is something that can really earn you potentially Bitcoin or USDT for the rest of your life. So.