A short monologue discussing uncertainty about whether recent Bitcoin price action is a temporary pullback or the start of a deeper bear market. The speaker notes predictive models have underperformed this year, cites a roughly 40% price decline and liquidation of longs, and highlights cyclical timing and power-law support as factors complicating interpretation.
A lot of predictive models that have kind of failed this year. I think something that has stood obviously is the power law support, but also obviously it's been interesting because the time in terms of the clock is basically getting to the brink of the top of the cycle as well. So I think like personally we're just in a little bit of uncharted territory, right? And, and you know, that's normal but the reality is we're kind of in terms of cyclical behavior, we're somewhere we've never been before. And it makes it difficult for me to discern whether you this is simply just a pullback inside the current run up or whether this is the start of the bear market. But I don't know, man. I think we've seen a 40% decrease in price and a lot of the longs get taken out of the market. So I just can't help but find it hard to believe that all the shorts are going to stay on the board and win. Typically this market doesn't allow either side to win.
