Is The Only Scientifically Valid Model We Have Of Bitcoin That Is Also Not Just

5 Nov 2025 · 1 min

Watch on YouTube

0:38

Short excerpt from a YouTube video by Kosta Ouzas discussing mathematical modeling of Bitcoin price behavior. The speaker explains an "orange line" on a plot representing decay which contains both the power-law trend and observed decay; deviations are computed by subtracting price from the power-law fit. The speaker claims the decay is mathematically predictable and that using the first three bubbles one could have predicted the fourth within a few thousand dollars.

Chapters

We have another important line that is this orange line. The orange line represents the decay. So it's both, it contains both of the power law trend, but also the observed decay. So if you, if you subtract the price from the power law, you're observing what is left over right. And these are the deviation from the power law, these deviations over time. The decay in even that is actually mathematically predictable. Where you could have used the first three bubbles and predicted the fourth one within few thousand dollars.