Live with Minotaur Trading Systems, December 4th 2025

All right.

Hey, guys. So we're live on December 4th, 2025. Hello, Marcus. Marcus is our chief strategist, Sebastian Rcto, and I'm Costa, the CEO of Minotaur Trading Systems. Today we're going to be discussing liquidity maps, price action, how the algorithms are doing, and I guess just some. Some general market sentiment, where we think things are, where we think they're going to, and what maybe 2026 is going to look like. So thanks, guys, for joining.

All right, good to be here, man.

Good to be here. Good to be here.

Awesome. Now I'm just going to do a quick share. Let's send this to a couple of groups. Guys, do you want to load up your screen markers? We'll just have it ready there.

Yeah. Okay.

But any thoughts on what the price is currently doing? I know there was a big bear market calls.

Maybe like 10 days ago, right?

Yeah.

People saying that the cycle's over, we're going into bear market, 30k, 40k on the cards. A lot of these calls were way below power law support.

Now we're back up at 92. That happened pretty quick. So what are your thoughts on.

On that?

I mean, every time we go through this, this is the psychology and the mind, the mentalities are the first thing to crack. I mean, every time we get a significant pullback, you know, everybody wants to jump off the Titanic, you know it's sinking. But the way I see it is this is just a normal course of action that bitcoin does. It's a. We're on the larger time frames, and when they rotate, they cycle out. You're going to get those 30, 35 percenters, but it's just another day at the office. There's nothing to, you know, jump out of a, you know, pop smoke on or get. Grab your parachutes. We're all right. It's not fried chicken yet, you know.

Yeah, yeah. What about you, Sebastian? What do you think?

Yeah, I think it's been. It's been interesting because.

You know, the way I see it is there's a lot of predictive models that have kind of failed this year. I think something that has stood, obviously, is the power law support. But also, obviously it's been interesting because the time in terms of the clock is basically getting to the brink of the top of the cycle as well. So I think, like, personally, we're just in a little bit of uncharted territory. Right. And. And, you know, that's normal, but the reality is we're kind of in terms of cyclical behavior. We're somewhere we've never been before. And it makes it difficult for me to discern whether, you know, this is simply just a pullback inside the current run up or whether this is the start of the bear market. But I don't know, man. I think we've seen a 40 decrease in price and a lot of the longs get taken out of the market. So I just can't help but find it hard to believe that all the shorts are going to stay on the board and win. Typically, this market doesn't allow either side to win. Right. That's the reality of it. So I guess for me, I'm a little bit. I was like, you know, I was one of the people who was saying, I think this thing can go to 70k and I was still surprised to see it move how it did down. Right. So I didn't really think that was going to happen and it did. So, you know, it's just again, one of those things where I always say bitcoin can do anything at any time for any reason, but we're definitely in an interesting space. And another thing I guess is that usually when the whole market is bearish, that makes me feel very, very bullish. So that is kind of playing on my mind as well. You know, I don't want to be a sheep. And definitely, you know, most people's conviction will drop every time bitcoin does this and then they'll short and then bitcoin will pump back up. So, you know, I'm not ready to say it's the bear market yet, but I definitely think that we are moving into some uncharted territory here and it's going to be interesting to see what actually happens.

Yeah, my kind of take is that the sentiment is the sentiment has been bearish, but the data that we're seeing is still.

Quite in line with having a significant rally into next year. I can't really see much evidence beyond that. And we'll take a look at some of that today. I want to jump into the, the power law algo and just have a look where. This is quite interesting. You see where we are so sort of still oscillating close to a mean kind of up there, but there's still room for something to happen if we were to follow this kind of cyclical wave. This, this sine wave. If you have a look at past cycles as well, it's, it's not necessarily, you know, to the, to the letter. Like, look at this one here, look how offset that one was. This one Was a little bit there.

Look at this peak here. Came way before. So these are all, you know, relatively different and there's no reason why we still can't have something that potentially looks like that. And then I guess in retrospect would look completely normal. It's one of those things where when you're in it, you're so you can't see the forest from the trees. But you know, even with regards to these algos, we still have plenty of. We're not even halfway through the bull.

The full bull, which would include a.

Fall to the bottom. But you know, this transitionary stage is still not even halfway, halfway through. And if this is to continue to go up, really what we're looking at is I'm calling this the sort of the trade of the year. Right. And we'll show you later on how the algo can actually position you to take advantage of this huge move. And a lot of people I think are going to be sidelined because it's good to be bearish when you should be a bear and bullish when you should be a bull, but it's not good to be bearish when you should be a bull or the opposite. And I think that, that that's where we are right now.

Any thoughts on that, guys?

Well, I think just.

Something good about having an algo, right. Because we know we can't necessarily predict what the price is going to do. So the good thing about having an algo with the right structure means that if you do get the direction wrong or you are bullish when you're meant to be bearish, it doesn't really matter because the algo will pick up the slack for you. Right. So that, that's kind of my thoughts on that.

Yeah.

And I wanted to have a look at the algo as well. And I want to get your thoughts on, on this as well. Marcus, I know you're a trader for a long time and, and if you were waiting for a long entry, what, what essentially you would have built up here in a way synthetically with this algo is just a huge swing trade, right. Because right now we've sort of, we've DCA'd into these positions and we've kind of bought at around 89 with a take profit at 100. Almost like you've been, you've been loading up right here with all these little incremental positions and now you're able to make this, this huge kind of swing trade, which is a really cool way to think of what the algo does what are your thoughts on, on that, Marcus?

Well, not only that's trading 101, what the algorithm is doing is it's modeling the same patterns at larger institutions are doing with their algorithms. Right. So they have to break down these enormous orders and they have to move in and out of significant size positions, billions of dollars position. So it takes a lot of orders and they have to average them over a long period of time and a lot of market depth. So our algorithm is doing the same thing. It's accumulating where they are accumulating. And then as the market moves back up, it'll start distributing just like our algorithm will do. It doesn't wait on one particular. Fundamentally what makes it good is it doesn't make one.

Entry. You know, like traditional manual training, you make an stop loss and a take profit. It averages into the position, it accumulates into positions just like the institutions are doing. And then once it's finished accumulating it and reaches the average price, then it'll start distributing on the way up, just like the institutions do. So.

Yeah, and, and institutions aren't afraid to hold on to trades. Right. And some people, some people get really scared with holding onto trades, as you can see. Although this has been in a trade for a long time. 27th, it's not really long time in the scheme of things. Right. And, and where was it able to get out? It's done what it's had to do.

Not at all. You know, it takes these institutions, sometimes it takes them three months, four months, two months, six months to accumulate the positions that they need. They, the market won't move until that process is complete. Also, one other thing, that orange line is the average price. Right. So institutions, they trade on what's called V WAP or volume weighted average price. So we're doing the same thing. We are driving our volume weighted, our average price down is like they, they're doing with their V waps.

Yeah, yeah. And almost like once the market rallies, we'd sort of turn this into, into what's called like a scalper. Right. So we're going from.

Well, it'll start distribute.

It's a distribution phase. You're, you're unloading on the way up.

Yeah. So we're really, yeah, we're really happy with the performance of the last few months, especially considering, you know, this was that October nineteen billion dollar liquidation event. We took profit on that.

That was amazing.

Yeah.

I mean, you know, and swing traders, to Marcus's point, like, you know, I know swing traders who hold trades for Two years or a year.

Right.

It's like it's people who position themselves and you know, I think people, they do get a little bit over the top with the fee structure as well because they think that you know, they're going to get the funding, destroying all their profit. But it's just, it's actually, it's actually not true. You know, at the end of the day like if you've built.

It's a small number.

Exactly. You're like, you know, if you're going to be worried about fees, you might as well not even trade.

Yeah, you might as well know. Yeah, I agree. The high frequency on a high frequency, like.

100, 200 trades a day on a retail exchange might get chopped out but, but not this kind of strategy. The fees are just not going to eat up these trades. Especially because the size of our take profits.

Exactly.

The average whole time is I think less than six weeks on average. You know, even this trade here we're slowly getting into sort of four or five, probably the five, six week mark. There's a good chance that yeah, within a couple of weeks this will have gotten taken out as well. So yeah, we're really happy. I don't think it's going to take very long to get to here and again plenty of move to go further down if we needed to. I guess that's, that's the beauty of this as well.

So yeah, you know, you got to remember most people, like probably 99 of people who were long are no longer in the market.

So.

Oh yeah, that really needs to be stress because I think people don't realize the importance of that. You know you mostly on these moves, these traders get taken out and I guess coming back to the cycle behavior and the bubbles, I mean the more I think about, I just, I just find it hard to believe that, you know, because I guess a lot of people on X now talking about the cycle either being over or the cycle being in. I mean people can't make up their minds. Right. And the thing is, I guess where I keep coming back, back to is that for the cycle theory and bubble theory to be dead, that means that we're going to no longer see big dips in price or big pumps in price. And I just think in a leveraged market that's not really reality. Right. Because leverage, as Marcus says, fuel spot, it fuels direction. So yeah, if all the exchanges got banned from providing leverage then maybe we would see a low volatility environment. But they're offering 100x leverage, man. So to Say that, you know, like that's just the reality of it. There's going to be pumps and there's going to be dumps. I mean, you know, it was only a few months ago where on X everyone was saying bitcoin will never go under 100k again. And now everyone on X is saying the bull market's dead and we're bearish.

Yeah, it's pretty. They flip flop different flags, you know, they got every flag in the world on there.

They do exactly what the market makers want them to do, you know.

Exactly, exactly.

Yeah. You got to just be positioned to make it no matter what happens. Let's take a look at the liquidity charts market, so we can start to see what story that's telling us.

All right.

When in doubt, mount, let's, let's leave what the liquidity says. That's the fuel, that's the whole game. So from a liquidity standpoint, everything is, is a, all systems go.

Very simply, it's a simple process. Now there is a misread. I want to quote here. This was one pool here, this is one pool and this is another one here. So it's not, we're kind of looking at this as one composite liquidity pool, but it's not, it's actually two. So having said that, let me remove some of this. So having cleared that up, so now we took a ton of shorts, these were forced buyers, so we gotta offset that. Right. So it only makes sense that when you do that. Come over here, you can see it over here. When we liquidate a ton of shorts, then we reverse back and liquidate the loans to offset that. Right. So we liquidated a ton of shorts all the way to 3x or 5x 3x here. So then you reciprocate and you take out the loans. Just make sense. It's nice, it's uniform. You know, we're still above these lows. Everything's looking good. So after that process takes place.

We have to do something. The mark has to do something with all this inventory here. So what do you do? You know, you move over here, the next logical spot and to further reference that we'll move the liquidity out of the way. We have right here when we came down this time. This is accumulation, this is distribution. That's why I was talking about that misread here. It's actually distributed right into the top of the pool perfectly. This is distribution right here.

And they left this pool alone. Right. So we have distribution.

And then right here we've started another Accumulation phase like we had over here. So we're accumulating now. We have a swing point here, swing low, and we have not swept that low. But in a model two, accumulation, you don't necessarily have to. On a model one, you would sweep the lows and then go. So we could have a Model 1 or a Model 2. Either way, the previous one that we had here, this is a model one, we kept sweeping the lows just a little bit. So right here, that would look like this. And a Model 2, we could just continue to work higher. We don't have to sweep the low, so we'll see how it plays out. Doesn't really matter that much. The point is, this is accumulation zone, and this is the standard 101 Wyckoff we're accumulating right here. So once that process is complete, you know, then we start moving higher to take care of it, to tack this up here.

Any time frames for this kind of action, I'm. I'm hearing some. Some bulls calling the next 13 weeks are going to be really important.

Well, let's just look at the last time we accumulated right here. Right. This is on here before we got out of here.

So.

It could be looking at 60 days.

So that's that.

So we. Yeah. So here we are even less. Yeah. Right here on January, about the. Towards the middle of January, end of January. So. Yeah.

So what are you seeing? The potential on that? On that, on that. The bottoms. If we don't do a full Sweep down to 79.80, we're looking at 88, 85.

Well, if we sweep. Right. So we'll go with the sweep. Let's go with the Model 1, where we sweep the lows. So that means we would take out 80. So if we sweep the lows in a Model 1, we'll just do some little math here. This was the first swing low, and the suite was an additional, say, 5%.

So here's our swing low here.

And if we sweep that In a Model 1, we, you know, we could look at another 5%, which would be about 76K, and we would still not violate this low. It's kind of important that we don't take out this low and stay below here. We might. We might. We can wick. Wick is fine. We just don't want to be closing below this structure here. We start closing below there. Here. Now we put in a new macro low, and, you know, that flips the whole structure. So right now we're fine. Even if we sweep the lows and do a 5% below here. That's only about 76. So we won't be taking that low out in a. Or if we do a Model 2, where we just keep making higher, higher lows on the way up and accumulate like that, then that can also work.

What's that kind of next type? What's the higher low that. We had the second one there that week, but it touched 80. 84.

Yeah, 83.

So call it 85. 85. 88 would be the model two.

Man, we could. Yeah, we could hit this. It's a strong support zone here. This is the valley area low. We could find support there and keep going. Flip this point of control, you know, and then keep going. After the time, we still. The key to the whole thing is it's not going to be a V bottom. You know, everybody wants a V bottom, but the bottoms are not good. If you don't accumulate that becomes a weak bottom that the market will come back for. You have to accumulate. The institutions gotta do their thing. You gotta. The longer we can accumulate here, the stronger this bottom becomes. Just like it was here. If we do a V, we're going to come back down. We don't want to be. We want an accumulation zone. That's the Wyckoff. It's been around for over 100 years ago. It still works. So we need that just like here. We had a good distribution zone here before we came down.

Okay, nice.

Yeah.

All right. So potentially we're looking at six days. What about on the lower time frames? Anything there? Or you just want to look at the daily.

Look down. We can zoom down here. Just. Let's take a look at this area here. A little bit closer.

We'll go to the four hour, see what's cooking there. So we look at it from a four hour time frame. You just get more details. This was the meltdown that we had right here. So, you know, nothing that we. There's our pivot there.

Jesus.

So. So I guess. Sorry. I guess the question, follow up is, is there liquidity to get us back down to those levels again? That's the only thing. Most of them.

Well, there's all. The only thing left. There's a vacuum now. So let's just go step by step. When we took out the. When we had this move, this fresh 25, as you can see, that's come in. So there's 25 in the market. That's. That's coming. That's good. There's no 10 yet because it just this, this new. This nuke. Job here took out the 10, but it's starting to populate again. So we got some 10 coming in. We have some 5x starting to show it show up here a little bit sparsely. And right now the only thing that we haven't tapped this is what I call three of a kind and liquidity. You see up here you have three of a kind and when you have three, three levels, like 25 is a level here, then you put in the 10, the 10 agrees with the same level and the 5 agrees with the same level. That is a massive amount of, of loans being deleveraged right there. It's massive deleveraging right there. So the only thing that remains on the board is the 3X. We haven't finished that. We haven't. We've just begun. We just baked. This is. This, this is just a kiss on the 3X. It's just a kiss. So we haven't even begun to get.

Into the 3, which again we've had discussed previously, the 3x could be that liquidity. That brings us back to the parallel support, which is around 70k in 2026. Right. Because we still need fuel to get us there.

Yeah. The problem, the problem with the 3x, if we take out the 3x is. Let's look over here.

If we take out the three, then we're going to break this, we're going to break the market structure. Right. So let's just look at three.

Yeah. So that three might have. That 3x might evaporate by the time we come back to it.

You see, typically, because remember, all liquidity is being taken all the time. It's all being generated. 100 x 50 x 10, 25, 5, 3. It's all being generated and it's all being liquidated at the same time. 100 is just 1%. So it's going every two hours. It's being created and taken very quickly. 50 slower. 25 slower than that. You know, 10 is slower than that. 5. Just look right here. We just took out the 5 right now and it took all this time just to get to five out of there.

Yeah.

So the three takes even longer. So we're going to take out this three and that's why it takes a bear market to get to three. You need a bear market. So in a bull market, you take out the three. Right. So come over here. In a bull market, the three gets harvested because you're in a bull market. So you get everything in a bear market. In a bull market, you don't get to the three you get to the three in a bear market. So right now we're in a bull market and we haven't violated that yet because we haven't tapped this three. If we start taking the three, then you say we're in a bear market because the three will survive up here and it'll start getting taken over here. The only problem with that theory is, well, hell, you just took a lot of ton of liquidity already.

Yeah, that'd be buying, buying load of sell even lower, which makes it very unprofitable.

Right. So you already took all this. You're gonna at least need to make a significant wrap, take out this high, but at least a significant rally before you can come back for more.

Yeah, just to continue to dump with all this is gonna get heavier and heavier. What are you going to do with that?

So we could, we could based on this really see a decent, another run up, but potentially not all type high again and then come down to everything.

Well, that, yeah, that comes to that theory too. Here's what typically happens. You can see the market's fractal. You can see it on lower time frames. You don't get to see it that often on large time frames because it takes a long time. Right. So is kind of what you said earlier, Sebastian, they're gonna let all that just, just survive and profit. This needs to be harvested. In other words, it was created by price action. So the algorithms of the composite operator doesn't create that and leave it. It's created to be harvested.

So that's a good point. And what's interesting is that typically like.

Obviously the pools change depth and width based on, you know, people taking profit and things like this. But what's interesting is that so much of the short liquidity is still left. The depth of the pool hasn't gone. Which lets us know that a lot of short players actually haven't taken profit. They're still holding their positions like this would.

This would be an example of if it was going to reverse. Right. So let's just, let's just take a step and look at it fundamentally, right. This was 3x that was taken. If it does a very nasty displacement when it goes into a price discovery, right, we're imbalance and we're seeking new balance, then it has. If it, the longer it can stay here, the longer the price gets accepted, which builds the liquidity. The mark the market accepted the higher prices, which built the liquidity. If it was going to reverse into a bear, you would think it's going to take this Discover price doesn't get accepted and it comes back down before you build the. This massive amount.

Yeah. Which is. Yeah, so that's really interesting. And that's what we see at a cycle top, which is what we're not seeing right now. This is, this is a really important point.

People calling cycle tops are fast because then you just have a little bit of liquidity left. You won't build this massive structure and leave it. Yeah, because it's. In other words, it comes back to what you was just saying there, Costa. We, we created this liquidity here and to come back and take it. And if we're going to top out, we're going to come fast and violent, which is not. Build all the new liquidity. Yeah.

And that's what. So. So that's kind of what I'm still proposing is going to be the outcome. Right, what you just made.

Yeah, yeah. And what's also very, very strange about the market because we've seen this behavior. That's the beauty of watching lower time frames. I'll show you a little sneak peek right here. Look at this time frame right here. This is only a couple of days, but it looks very similar to the.

Bull market structure that we were looking at. Right. Huge, huge, huge run up, get to a new displacement and then you start taking and leave a lot of liquidity. It's the same pattern. It's just. This is a 15 minute versus.

Because the reality is like big institutions like Two Sigma and those guys, like they're doing this on like a millisecond time frame and there would be pull tools built on those time frames. We can't see them. Yeah, but this pattern plays out across every structure, every frame.

Right. And what happens is, look, here you have the distribution and when they get to heavy concentrations, before it takes the concentration, it violently goes in the opposite direction, then works its way back. That's just. We've seen that over and over and over again, that pattern, all time frames. So come here. What does it do? It finishes its. It finishes its distribution. It gets to the hairs on and before it takes it, it violently goes in the opposite direction, then comes back.

So, so what was the mistake that everyone made a few months ago, weeks ago, thinking that it wouldn't have come down this low when we could see these pools building up. What, what?

To not see this company mistake was looking at the one pool that was good. It's not one, it's two. And what through it. What threw it off is you had so much institutional consolidation, it allowed this Thing to keep growing and growing and growing where before the institutions got in. In the last run, Bull thrust, it violently went up. It didn't keep doing this building and building and building. It had a very nice distinct shape to it because it displaced fast.

Yeah.

This time it moves so slowly. Yeah. That it kind of. It's like. It's like conjoined twins. Right. They're joined at the hip right here, but it's two separate twins. It's twin pools that got conjoined here. That's.

That's a good point. Because it's like we were almost white. We were like, why is this taking so long? The displacement should be fast. And then the displacement was fast, but in the other direction was. Yeah, you know, it wasn't fast up. It was fast down. Because that. I mean, that correction, if you compare the time and speed just of the correction we just had, it was like, as fast as that Bull move up, man. It was really quick, Right?

Yeah. Just imagine if this is this. If this didn't exist. This whole section here wasn't in the way. It would be just like the other one. It. It displaced about 90 of the pool, and then it went back for the other side in preparation of to the other side. So it's doing what it's supposed to do. This is just one unit right here. It got conjoined right in this area here. But it's too.

I mean, to your point as well, Marcus? You know, like, I think one of the reasons I. And I. I was in a lot of ways, wrong as well. But one of the reasons I was kind of adamant that we could go down there is because even though while all this was happening, the pool was still there, that's what's cool about the heat maps. And, like, if the pool's there and the liquidity is there, then there's a possibility it can be taken and it can do exactly what you don't think is going to happen. And that's what's so powerful. I think about this is It's. It's really showing you. And I mean, if you show that pool again, you know, where that wick hit. It's really insane, the accuracy of the pool getting taken out. It hit it to the T. Right? To the T, man. Look at that. And, you know, I think.

And to the T. It didn't really. It didn't really tap into the three. Yeah, a little bit, but not. Not much. Yep.

Crazy. Yeah.

It's very systematic. The markets operate very systematic, very fractally. But it's got to, it's got to mess you up first. You know, it has to do this violent move to get everybody going the wrong direction and it's gonna crush them. They're already coming in now just like they did here on this violent move down here. They started coming in. What is it going to do? It's going to work them out. Here they come. There they go. It's going to come get them later. Right around January 19th. They'll all be in there. Yep, yep.

And those are the same guys that are the same guys that flip long when it goes back to 120.

And here's all, here's all your foot players. Here they come. I mean everybody thinks it's over. Here they come is they're all in here. Here they come. Just like they did here. Here they come. Here they come. Market scares them. All these, all these thrust up and down, just, just loading them up. Here's your fried chicken right here. There they are. All of them. It's gonna get all of them. Yeah.

Nice.

Because. Because the market is just a. We just like we said earlier, the market is a leverage deleveraging engine. That's what it is. A leverage build up. Deleverage leverage. Deleverage leverage.

Yeah, that's. That's right. I mean you get, you get a 40. Correction because there's enough leverage in the market for that to happen. Take it out without, without that you start to see an environment that is significantly less volatile. Right. So yeah, you know, I think that's another thing where like if we're going to talk about.

Maybe forget cycle theory, I think I like the word bubbles more because if we're going to talk about bubbles, really, if there's the offering of leverage that exists, I just can't see how we don't have bubbles, you know, just saying. Yeah, I agree to believe that.

Yeah. Look, look here for a second here.

You know, you can see even on the 15 minute, it's just going from set to bubbles, right? Bubbles to bubbles. And then you look at the, you look at the greater market. I'm super zoomed out, but it makes a lot even makes all the sense in the world, right? You can see, you can see the pattern, right? Consolidation, liquidation, right. And you know, you can see it going, the process of liquidating on each side, right.

It's funny though because when you draw it like that, it's really just one giant uptrend.

It's just a giant uptrend really, when you look at it like that as well, like, because that really? You know what's funny is that even with bitcoin's bear markets, like we have bear markets, but look at that. Like, we're. They're bearish, but we're in an uptrend, like almost always.

Right? That's what's interesting. And this is the same behavior on smaller time frames. It just takes a long time for this to play out. It's not doing any. It's not doing any magic tricks or anything differently. It just takes a long time. That's why everybody forgets or they can't see it because they're looking too close in or something. It's just doing what it always does. It just takes. Like right here, this was a. Almost. How long was this one? Just takes a long time. And people get put to sleep. Like, that's Almost a year. 260 days. And right here is that one before that one started. That's another 200, 150 days. So it just takes a long time and people somehow lose sight of this. But it's just doing what it always does.

Crazy here.

This actually, this pullback, if you look at it compared to the one that happened in April, they're like, scary similar. Even if you look at the double topping, it's like pretty nuts. They look almost identical, right?

Yeah. Yeah. But you can see the pattern, right? You build up the liquidity. It starts really sparse. You build it up. Harvest. Yeah. Right. Go to it, discover a new zone, do it all over again. It starts off sparse. It builds up, it gets harvested both sides. Yeah, a little bit. Like you said in an uptrend, it's a. It's more shorts getting taken than longs, but yeah, so it'll reverse and start getting the loans eventually.

So there's still potential of a top. Maybe the timing will be a little bit off center, but we're still potentially looking at a 160 to 180.

Possibly.

Yeah, potentially. Yeah, definitely. Because remember, just like bitcoin can melt down, right? It can. It can melt up too.

Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.

So, yeah, these guys, it's gonna. It's gonna rock everybody to sleep, and it's gonna hit them real hard. And that leads to another point that I think everybody on this call can understand is what we call the tractor beam. Right. When you just look at this chart, you're like, well, why don't these people get out of the way? Or why are they just sitting there letting this stuff come out? What I understand is these guys that are getting liquidated here got in here, you know, they got in up here and they immediately, when the prices went down 5%, they were already in significant drawdown. That's why we call it the tractor beam. Like most space Odyssey movies where you get in that magnetic beam and it just pulls you. You can't do anything but watch this thing come get you. You can't get out of the way. What people do when it gets close to their liquidation levels, they can start selling off some of their account. They can add more capital, but that's not really saving you. You're just giving feeding the beast.

Yeah. And that creates those big stomps towards the end of those, those huge stones.

And these people get stuck. So you're not able to get out. You're not able to get out. So these people, their day is coming.

Yeah, because they're getting on right now. They're getting. These guys are getting on down here. So when the market move was just this much, they're already stuck, even get out.

It's crazy. It's actually very, very. Hey, it's. It's a nasty game. You know, you get on the wrong side of that.

That's why you need the algorithm, that's.

Why you need the algo, because it's going to keep you in the rails. I don't let you get into weeds.

Yeah, well, let's take a look. Some questions first. One, Love that train of thought, Seb. Don't want to be part of the sheeple.

Yeah, Fipsy, how are you, man? So 50 is a regular on my weekly show with the community. And yeah, I mean, that's what it's about because, you know, I think it's really easy to fall into the crowd and become almost delusional. And I think the point that, you know, I keep making in the weekly show is to look at the pools and not, you know, because we're all long term bull bias on bitcoin. That's the reality of it. And we just saw why. Right. Because its price keeps going up even though we have these huge corrections. So I think the long term is always to be bull bias. But you don't want to be delusional in assuming that the price can't go down. Because one thing we'll see is that it's violent up and it's violent down and, and the sheep and herd mentality is changing your conviction every time the price does something drastic.

Right.

And I think you need more balance than that. And even if you're bullish, you need to sometimes realize that the price can move against you. And if that happens, really the only way to succeed doing that is. Is to have something like we have which can allow you to kind of buy when everyone else is selling. Because really, in a lot of ways, that's what the algorithm does as well. You know, if you break it down at a simple level, we're entering the market when. When a lot of people are turning against the market and we're exiting, you know, when we get the opportunity to. Often on a short squeeze. Right. It's kind of how it plays out. We often buy and then we sell on a short squeeze. So, you know, it's good that you're with us, fipsy, because we can start to move away from this kind of mentality that we all. We all start like that. Right. The price actions is a scary thing, man. Especially when you see it dumping.

Yeah.

It's hard to. Kind of takes a while to build the mental fortitude to see that happening and not freak out.

Yeah, yeah. Just to add. To add to that thought, most people that are selling are forced sellers. They're not willing sellers. They're being educated and forced to sell.

Yeah.

Forced to get off their position when they don't want to.

Exactly, exactly. You gotta be. Because people will say crazy.

Like, are they doing that?

Could have just bought bitcoin here and I would have made. It's like, yeah, but you didn't. You know, this is the point. People will say all sorts of things about what they could have or.

Or you or you. Or you couldn't, you know.

Yeah.

Yeah.

All your. If all your capital is defending a drawdown, you don't have any money to buy bitcoin with. You know, you don't have anything. That's right.

All right, thanks, Richard. It's good to see you on the show. Richard's always on the show as well. All right, this is an interesting one. Have you guys seen the log periodic public behavior idea that G Mining 7 paranoid have been discussing a little lately? Projected BTC peak around mid 2027. I think around 300k. So I know these. These next bubbles pretty, pretty well. So if we have a correction down eventually to power law support. 70K. I think if the multiple of this bull run or let's say from bottom to top was around a 12x, the next one is supposed to be around a 6x. So 7 times 6. So 70 times a 6x is 7, 14, 21, 28, 35, 42, 49, 500k. So they're calling around a 300k around 2027, which does line up with a peak of around half a million and the bottom of around 70k. So. So yes, I think that they're go if a go off Giovanni's work. That that makes sense. That that could be correct. You guys, any thoughts on that?

I would say yes.

I have no idea. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I mean it's very possible.

Looking at how these rotations go. Yeah, that's just. That's one more rotation away.

Yeah, one more half a. Halfway into the next one, I guess.

Yeah, halfway into the next one. Yeah.

Yeah. So, yeah, I agree. And also with the quantity of easing starting now, I think there's going to be a lot of money pumping back into the system.

Yeah, that's a good way because we forgot to mention that, that, yeah, the QT Quantitative ease and QE is going to really pour gasoline on risk assets. And it usually, it usually hits about a few months after they start. Not right away. Months, six months.

So that's our thought on that. Another one. Seb, any updates on the Minotaur Wonder training program and community forum? I'll probably ask every week. Looking forward to it. Thanks.

You're killing me, Rich. You're adding pressure to me. It's coming. It's coming along well. We are really close to finishing. We've been finished in terms of development for over a month now and I've got my bug testers just going hard on it. So it's, it's a little bit trickier because we're launching a trading application. Right. Which is going to handle a lot of money and there's a lot of security involved. So unfortunately it's not as easy as putting up something like a web application. You know, it takes a lot. But the good news is we're on pace to finish this year and then we'll end for a Q1 launch next year, hopefully in January, start getting everyone across. But all I can tell you, Rich, is that it's finished now. We're just trying to break it as hard as we can and we're having a really good crack on it. And the good thing is we're finding bugs and we're closing the holes and we're finding less and legs less bugs now every day, which means we're getting close to finishing. So yeah, the more we basically we keep going until there's nothing left.

Okay, thanks, Deb. And the last one, this was a follow up for the 300k price. Does this actually affect the algorithm performance? So maybe you can discuss this. My, my quick one is that what happens is the support level rises to 70, the peak rises to 400, and we're just playing in a higher range. If, if anything, deviations will tighten fractionally to make up for the less volatility. So we can still generate our target returns. But did you want to add to that guys, any.

Yeah, yeah. I mean that's the, that's the cool thing about having control over the algo. And really like I was thinking this morning, the accumulator is almost like.

I.

Don'T even want to call it an algo because it's like a tool that builds algos, right? You actually build alos with it. You build different structures with it. It's almost like it go. It's almost like an engine. And then how you actually use the settings is what then produces the algo. I was thinking about that this morning and it's true because it can be strung in a number of different ways. And the reason I'm saying this is that, you know.

As bitcoin's volatility changes because of will and it's a maturing asset, right. We can't expect it to stay the same. The good thing is as it becomes less volatile and let's say it starts to become something maybe like gold, I don't know if it ever will get to gold status as a store of value. But I think what's interesting is the early days of gold somewhat look similar to bitcoin. And over time, as its market cap matured into the biggest asset in the world, its volatility dwindled. So when you're running algorithms on gold, you're not going to have like, you know, 5% deviations because you're never going to get a trade. So the point is, as bitcoin's volatility dwindles down, we can simply tune parameters to account for that. Right. And we, we can up the power law support to where it is. So that's the cool thing about having control. There's always ways to find yield. We just have to understand the environment and understand the expected, either run up or draw down to get an idea of how to tune it the right way. So we'll always be able to trade it.

All right, that's into the questions, guys. Thank you. For those who posted their questions, anything else you wanted to add before we wind it down? I think we've done some good coverage today.

I concur. Yeah, I think so.

Yeah, that's pretty much it. We're just going to be waiting to see what happens for the rest of the year. I think, like, for me, personally, I'm just really focused on that power loss support now. I'm trying to block out all the noise of that's it, you know? But, you know, I'm always. I'm always bullish on btc and, you know, I guess a philosophy I can leave you guys with is you don't need to look at the news ever, because that actually will fry your brain if you spend too much time in front of it. The charts will tell you what's happening if you know where to look. Right.

That's true news that puts you on the wrong side.

Yeah, exactly.

Awesome. All right, guys, let's call that a day. We'll see everyone in the next week's show. Thank you very much for attending, and we'll see you next time.