So We're Going To Have A Cycle Or Some Kind

2 Nov 2025 · 1 min

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Short excerpt from a YouTube video by Kosta Ouzas ("So We're Going To Have A Cycle Or Some Kind") discussing how to read a projection table that makes short-term forecasts using quantiles. The speaker explains moving from the 0.6 to 0.7 quantile could imply a projected value of ~128 in a month or by end-of-year, contrasts power-law-based projections (117–120) with higher-quantile outcomes (128 up to ~200k at the 90% quantile), and frames these as examples of how different quantiles map to different projected magnitudes.

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Look at the table. If you use this indicator, you can actually look at the table too, because it makes projections for the next month. The way to read the table is, you know, if you think we're going up and we are going from, say, 0.6 quantile to 0.7, you know, maybe in six months, at this kind of end of the year, we tell you where we are going. Right? So even 0.7 will give us 128. So if you stay along the power law, we should be 117, 120. If we're slightly higher, 128. If we go all the way to 90%, it should be the 200k. 200k basically responds to some of the highest quantiles.