We Have Already Demonstrated This Many Times If You Read My Articles

6 Nov 2025 · 1 min

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Speaker explains that an orange line on a plotted price series represents a decay component which contains both the underlying power-law trend and observed decay. By subtracting the power-law trend from price, one obtains deviations over time; those deviations themselves show a mathematically predictable decay. The speaker claims that using the first three price "bubbles" and this method would have allowed predicting the fourth bubble within a few thousand dollars.

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We have another important line that is this orange line. The orange line represents the decay. So it's both, it contains both of the power law trend, but also the observed decay. So if you, if you subtract the price from the power law, you're observing what is left over right. And these are the deviation from the power law, these deviations over time. The decay in even that is actually mathematically predictable. Where you could have used the first three bubbles and predicted the fourth one within few thousand dollars.