A short excerpt from a YouTube lecture by Kosta Ouzas arguing about the difficulty of establishing regular price cycles for Bitcoin. The speaker notes that early cycle-based predictions relied on few data points (three cycles), that the fourth cycle was the first that suggested predictability, but current evidence suggests Bitcoin may not be following a simple repeating cycle.
You need a few of these cycles before you can say there is a regularity. The first predictable cycle was the fourth one, because you had three. You can establish some kind of regularity you could have made. You know, you had to make a lot, a lot of assumption and really trust only three points because it's three cycles and then you could have made a prediction. Now we had four data points. It was still not too much information, but, you know, was some information. And now we know that, it seems that we are not following a cycle.
