BN@10: The Hersov interview - Coalitions, Gayton and SA post ’24

If I'd followed my notes, I'd be going for another hour.

Well, Rob, you, you were spot on time and you once again set the barrier for the other speakers who are coming. No, no, but, uh, you didn't mention Gaten or the Patriotic Alliance. The BizNews community, the tribe know that at one of the conferences you said he should be president. He was your pick for president of South Africa. What's happening there?

He wasn't really my pick. I said he could easily be president and I explained why. But for all the best reasons, Herman could be president and John here at Steenhuis could be president. I mean, we've got very good candidates for president in this country. But in some ways, just for me personally, the president is important, but more important is the cabinet that they bring with them, the experts in each field and the experts beneath that. And I spoke in Hermanas about 6, 8 months ago at the Third Age Conference, which this feels a little bit like the Third Age. You know, the first age is when you're young and young and crazy. The next age is when you're working very hard to, you know, build your skills and your wealth and your contacts. And the third age is when you have all these skills and intellect and experience. And, and this feels a bit third age, as did that speech. And I feel that this is the community that really can change this country. You know, we have all the skills, we have all the influence, we should be using it. But Gaten, let me talk about the Patriotic Alliance. I've got to know Gaten McKenzie for the last 3 years. And I've introduced him to Biz News and many, many other people, including a lot of people in the room. And when you meet him, you will be amazed by him. He and I come from the most different backgrounds ever. I've had every element of privilege and access and opportunity. He's had none. And yet, at this point in our lives, we agree on everything. He is capitalist, libertarian, pro-democracy. He believes in the rule of law. He is anti-communist, anti-Russia, anti-China, pro-West. And he just spent the last week in Israel. He met the president, and he's come back, and they will announce in the next few days, the Patriot Alliance, they are friends of Israel. Think about that for a second. So the DA does not trust Gaten McKenzie. And James Lorimer and I had a— and Alec had a nice long chat last night. And I said, why? Why don't the DA trust him? And I asked this question of a lot of DA members, and they say, because he's a crook, he's a bad guy. And I said, bring me one piece of proof. I just want one tiny fraction of proof. And no one brings me anything. Dion George tells me he's a crook, can't show me anything. Helen says it, can't show me anything. And all the meetings that Helen says that Gayton said illegal or immoral things in, Corné Mulder was in every meeting, says Gayton didn't say that. So I think the DA is delusional when it comes to Gayton, but let's leave it like that because I am a DA supporter.

I'm reading the most wonderful book at the moment, recommended by R.W. Johnson, called A Team of Rivals, and it is the biography, probably the best biography, Pulitzer Prize-winning biography of Abraham Lincoln, who had rivals in his cabinet. And I think if we could give that book to every single member of the coalition, they'd wake up. But an interesting point when you were talking about education is Abraham Lincoln had altogether 1 year of schooling, 1 year of schooling, and he's the greatest statesman that the Americans have ever produced. And the reason why was that he was on a continuous journey of learning. He was a lawyer. He became a lawyer after he'd finished and got married and started learning and studying law. So it can be done. It's just when you talk about a Gaitan and other people.

Yeah. Yeah.

What about Snooki Zikalala? I interviewed him 2 days ago. He is the head of the Veterans League. He's well known here amongst the tribe as being the former managing director of news at the SABC. I actually employed Snooki at the SABC as an assistant labor editor. And when I worked there for a period of time, and I've got a very good relationship with him and still know him very well, he's always been a man of integrity, in my opinion. We don't agree on everything, but I find he has deep integrity. He was saying in that interview, which I thought was a watershed in many respects, that the ANC would go into coalition with the DA, but definitely not the EFF, definitely not the EFF. And it would go into coalition with the DA also to draw on its governance abilities because the ANC realizes the Western Cape is extremely well run, but more so when you compare with the rest of the country. What's your feeling on that? How would you feel about a DA or let's not say DA, let's say the Pact, because it's not DA anymore, they're all together, a Pact/ANC coalition post-2024?

So it would make me sick to still have the ANC in power. And, you know, I think it was James last night, he said to me that even in a coalition, you're not going to get rid of corruption and inefficiency, because you might have the mayoral position in a certain, in Gauteng, for example, held by the Pact. And you might have Finance and Treasury controlled by the Pact. But if Human Resources is still controlled by the ANC, you're going to have out-of-control hiring and the wrong people being hired because they actually, you know, have cadre deployment, cadre deployment, and they have, you know, idiots being put into these roles. The ANC does not have a deep bench of intelligent people. We know that by now. So even in a coalition, you're still going to have inefficiency, kleptocracy, ineptocracy, 'cause you'll have the ANC involved. But it's a better result than having the ANC in total control or the ANC teaming up with EFF, which will never happen, by the way. People worry about it. They see this clown Juju jumping around on the stage singing whatever he sings. Ignore him. He's looking for attention. The more you ignore him, the less relevant. He becomes. So the first prize is for the coalition to win and someone like Herman to be president of our country. That's prize number one, and we've got to go for it. We've got to be confident we can get there, and we've got to go for it. Prize number two, I suppose, is, you know, and the ANC could tie up with the Encarta, though, but let's say it's with the coalition. That is second prize. That's at least trying to recreate 1994 to 2004 when we had a well-run country, economic growth, unemployment falling, and all the positives. And France Cronje's research shows that a majority of people polled hark back to that rainbow coalition of '94 to 2004, and they would vote for that again. So I think an ANC coalition ANC moonshot coalition partnership would have a lot of support. I just worry about the execution. You've got to get rid of all these old Madalas in the ANC and bring up the new, the new younger crowd. Ken, maybe you can help do that. Encourage that.

If that happened, because now we're trying to look at 2024 and likely scenarios, certainly the EFF according to the ANC's own rules, cannot be a coalition partner for the ANC. They'll have to change their whole constitution to allow them in. As, as Sinuki said, they do not respect rule of law, point one, before you even go any further. But let's just say that we had Moonshot PAC getting 46%, ANC getting 38%, and you then had a very strong government in coalition between the two. What What would your guys, your international community, your network offshore, would they be bringing money back to South Africa then?

Yeah. Assuming that that new government deregulated, pivoted to the West, got rid of, you know, BE, EWC, overregulation. I mean, it's very simple to fix this country. It's very, very simple. You know, there are the 5 or 6 things you have to do. It's clear as the driven snow, or as the Clockwork Orange would say, clear as the azure sky. And you implement that very quickly with competent people in charge. It's— this country will turn around so quickly. That's the beauty of it all. And that really is something I'd like to see.

And if the Moonshot Pact were to achieve over 50%, what would the difference be between—

well, that would be a home run.

Help us. Yeah, just help us understand what it's like.

So having the ANC in partnership with the Moonshot Pact, does it depend who has the greatest shareholding? So let's assume the ANC has the greatest shareholding and that the Moonshot Pact is its partner alliance. You know, you would then assume the ANC would keep some key positions, including the president, By the way, watch out for Paul Mashatile. He is the EFF, okay? He's the EFF. I was on a flight with a very senior cabinet minister. I'm not going to say who, by chance sitting next to him. And I've always liked him. And he said very clearly, he said, Paul Mashatile is the EFF. Don't have any doubts about it. Was a cabinet minister.

Okay.

So beware the wolf in wolf's clothing. So if the ANC is the lead partner in this coalition, you know, you will still have a lot of foreign direct investment as long as all the right things were being done. So as long as enough of the right things were being done and the country started moving, you know, we're in good shape. But I think between now and then, we're going to see a lot of economic problems. We're going to see, you know, civil unrest. What you saw yesterday in the Cape, we're going to see all over South Africa. It's now going to be a feature of our lives. We've got some real headaches coming. And I'm not sure the ANC are going to play with a straight bat at the election. Be ready for some very dodgy results and very dodgy situation coming forward over the next 8 to 10 months.

Impact, if any, of Russia?

Impact of?

Of Russia in the 2024 election, if any. Do you see them being involved?

Yeah, I mean, I think you will see, you know, the Russians are— it's in their interest to keep South Africa on side and not have South Africa swing completely to the West. But we're not as much a priority in Russia's eyes as we think we are, in my view. And the Americans, you know, they don't want this country to fall into the abyss, and they don't want this country to fall right into the hands of Russia. So I think there'll be counterbalancing forces going on over the next 10 months. The State Department is active in this country right now.

I'm looking at it more on a, on a subterfuge level, if you like, with Prigozhin and his troll farms, and he's got one operative in South Africa at the moment. It's, it's not difficult to see where a lot of this stuff comes from.

No question.

But the, the, I suppose the big question, and we did have it at one of the Biz News conferences, and it was quite well asked, answered, is the next election going to be free and fair?

I can't comment.

Maybe let's make it different. How do we make it free and fair?

Franz Cronje, I said, if you had to tell me that the election was today, who would win? He said, as of today, this is a week ago, the ANC would get 50.1% as of today. But he said, you know, there's 8 to 10 months to go, the moonshot pact are coming together. They seem to be not squabbling anymore, and good things are going to come out of it. And he said a lot can happen in the 8 to 10 months. All the work that Michael Lewis and Sculkin and others are doing, you know, the forces are with us. And I think we can get a lot done in the next 8 to 10 months to make sure that 50.1 is not the result.

We know that if the Patriotic Alliance were to switch sides, and there's a lot of skepticism about the Patriotic Alliance, but if they were to switch sides in a way that was permanent, there would be many municipalities around the country, including Johannesburg, that would go to the Moonshot Pact. What can you do, given your relationship with both sides, to broker that?

I've almost given up. I mean, Herman's tried his best to get Geithner McKenzie included in the paper, into the Moonshot Pact. The DA just won't do it. They refuse. They say he's a one-man band, he's an opportunist, and we don't trust him. But, you know, on your show, Alec, Gaten made it very clear why he teamed up with the ANC and Gauteng. He said, I have to prove to the DA that I have influence and I'm serious and I can flex my muscles. But he is ready today to move over to the moonshot pact. But the DA just block him, they dismiss him. They say, if we keep blocking him, dismissing him, pushing him to the ANC, we will discredit him. And I think he's playing into their hands. I think in a way what Gaten needs to do is actually disconnect himself from the ANC across the board and say, right, moonshot pact, whether they take me or not, I'm now standing for what I believe. And he does not believe in the ANC. He's only doing it for political expediency. And he said so on your show. So he will disconnect, and I'm hoping he does it sooner rather than later. He will disconnect from the ANC. All the municipalities that the ANC are controlling, including Gauteng, with his support, will then collapse, and the DA and the moonshot pack can take them over again. But I have a feeling that the DA doesn't really want to run Gauteng right now because it's unfixable. It's unfixable. You know, whether you win— I mean, Herman, you were the mayor. I mean, you can comment on this maybe later, but You win that municipality. There are so many hands on the tillers. There's so many tillers and so many hands on the tillers down the line. It's unfixable right now. You know, you really do need a benevolent dictator in charge of Gauteng to fix it. Or time. Or time. Or time. ¡Gracias!