Rob Hersov: 'Replace Judges One by One to Get the Verdict You Want'

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Welcome to Episode 9 of The Alec Hogg Show, a long-form audiobiography where we look behind the headlines at the lives of interesting South Africans. Our guest in this episode is Rob Hersov. Wealthy, educated, and just turned 60, Hersov is on a mission to help fix South Africa, something you'll hear plenty about in what follows. A Harvard MBA and scion of a mining dynasty, his CV includes having worked under the direct tutelage of media mogul Rupert Murdoch and luxury goods baron Johann Rupert. Hersoff put those and other lessons to great effect, achieving significant entrepreneurial success, including the building of a successful private jet business, which he sold to none other than Warren Buffett. He has clearly inherited the energy of his famous father Basil Anglo-Walz chairman and a World War II fighter pilot who is still active in his mid-90s. With the wealth and experience to go anywhere on earth, 3 years ago, Hersoff Jr. brought his family back to South Africa after more than 3 decades abroad. We'll find out why and what he thinks about that decision in the next few minutes. But like other guests on this show, Rob was selected on the basis that if his story were captured in book form, it would likely be a bestseller. That's no maybe. Many people in South Africa know about about the Hersoff family, but what they might not know was that your grandfather Bob Hersoff and Slip Menil started this company Angloval, and then they handed it on to your father Basil and Clive Menil, and then there was Rob Hersoff and Ricky Menil who was supposed to be the next generation. What happened?

Well, there was also Brian Menil and James Hersoff, the, the younger brothers, but, uh, what happened was, you know, third generation, two families, 16, 17 heirs, not all of them wanted to be involved in business at all, and many of them didn't want to be involved in business or live in South Africa. So it sort of boiled down to the four boys, and James and Brian were doing their own thing, and Rick had had a lot of experience in mining in Australia and had returned to South Africa to join Angloval. And I happened to be overseas. I'd done Goldman Sachs, Harvard Business School, and I was working as Rupert Murdoch's right-hand man in '89 to '91, '92, when I got a call from my dad. And he said, if you're going to come back and run the company, you better come back now. I'd sort of got my life organized overseas. I'd been to Harvard Business School. I'd had the investment banking training. And working with Rupert Murdoch as a 30, 31-year-old was unbelievable. And I just wasn't ready to come back to South Africa. So I think Dad and Clive decided that maybe the next generation couldn't really be Hersells and Menells together, and that's when they split mining and industries, and the rest is history.

So if you'd come back, we might still have an Anglovaal.

If I'd come back, there might still be an Anglovaal, and who knows? It's a tough one to think that maybe I should have come back or maybe not.

Because the funny thing is you did come back. You came back a lot later, almost swimming against the tide, because had you come back then, it would have been a very different country to the one that you did return to.

You know, big parts of Angloval still exist. There's AVI, Aveng, uh, Patrice Motsepe's mining company is Angloval Mining. So the businesses have still continued and most of them extremely successfully. But I think my career has been an extraordinarily interesting one for me, and I've had failure and success and came back 3 and a half years ago to a very different country.

Why 3 and a half years ago did you make that decision?

Well, I'd lived 31 years abroad, 6 years in America and 25 years in Europe. Italy, Holland, and in mainly in London. And I'd had failure and I'd had success and I'd built a number of businesses. And all of a sudden I realized that the businesses that have succeeded and based in London all had great chief executives. I was the majority shareholder, but I could pretty much live anywhere as chairman and leave them to get on with the business. So I asked a few friends, including Johan Rupert, I said, here are 5 or 6 reasons why I could actually live anywhere in the world. And I'm thinking of going back to South Africa. I miss the country and my second innings of children should see the country I grew up in. And he and the others and my dad said, fantastic, come home. And I would have gone to Johannesburg because I am a Johannesburg boy at heart. But my New Zealand wife Katie said, if it's South Africa, it's got to be Cape Town. So here we are in paradise.

Johannesburg boy at heart. You go to school here?

Well, I went to Ridge, Michaelhouse, UCT, and then 2 years in the army. And then off to 2 years at Goldman Sachs in New York as an investment banker. And I arrived in 1985, and in 1985 the market was going through the roof. I know I didn't know what an IPO was, and within a week someone said, oh, you're from South Africa and Herschel, Angloval, you must know about mining. And they shipped me up to Canada to work on an IPO of a mining company called Campbell Red Lake. I had no idea what I was doing at that point.

Rob, you're also quite well known internationally as a bit of a playboy. If you Google Rob Hersoff, you'll see pictures of yourself and your first wife. And your first wife, I think after you got divorced, she dated Jude Law, a big film star.

She had—

it sounds like a— well, it sounds like a very rarefied atmosphere that not only you grew up in, but that you worked in and lived in.

Yeah, I was very lucky. I mean, I was born into the most incredible loving parents, family, beautiful home, want for nothing, you know, very, very lucky. And married Kim, my first wife, fantastic Californian in the fashion industry. And in London, you know, I'd get invited to all the sort of investment banking and other related parties and shooting and golf-type things. She'd be invited to all the fashion parties, and we'd go with together to all of these. So, you know, we'd be seen at all the who's who parties in London for a number of years. So maybe that's where the Playboy, uh, moniker came from. But I was always with her.

Rupert Murdoch— how did you get to work for him so closely?

Okay, I was dating a beautiful girl when I was in Harvard Business School, a redhead. And it was my second year, and I said to her, you know, I really want to get into the media industry. Things were starting to happen. It was before the internet, before mobile phones, before multichannel television. And she said, oh, I've got this great friend at Allen Company, which is a media investment banking firm. I'll arrange for you to see him. By the way, I've never told this story, and it's a fantastic story. So I went to see Stan, and he said, look, Rob, I think you want to be in media proper, not investment banking. 'You should go and work for News Corporation. And I tell you what, I'll set up a meeting for you right now, but not yet with Rupert. You've got to go and see a guy called John Evans.' Picks up the phone. 'Yep, yep, South African Rob. Yeah, he'll come down now.' So he said, 'Off you go. It's 4 or 5 blocks away. John Evans, he's unusual, you'll like him.' I walk in and there's this older gentleman with long gray hair, and I've sort of got a G.I. Joe haircut, tie, you know, like suit, and I walk in and I go, Mr. Evans, my name's Rob Hersov. And he said, before you say anything, I want to tell you I'm marrying a girl half my age and I'm a reformed drug addict and alcoholic. And then he just started talking. And he was Rupert's visionary. He'd say in a supermarket the fish should be next to the chips. And he was this kind of fantastic guy. And I'd really only said two words, you know, hi, I'm Rob Hersov. And after half an hour of talking, he said, look, if you're going to join News Corp, you have to meet Rupert. So hold on, picks up the phone. Rupert, yeah, South African, Rob. Yeah, okay, I'll send him over now. I hadn't said anything to John, so I walked for 4 or 5 blocks over to Rupert's office, walk in, and he goes, oh, you're Rob, lovely to meet you, please take a seat. And then he asked me one question. He said, so what's the future of the media business? Media industry. And I went, um, technology? And he went, no, it's content. And he spoke for about 20 minutes. So I'd said 2 words to John, 1 word to Rupert. And at the end of the conversation, Rupert said, well, it's fantastic you're joining News Corp. Um, can you, can you be here Monday morning? And I said, uh, I hadn't even graduated. I was supposed to go on holiday with my parents. I said, uh, yeah, I can be here Monday morning. And he said, well, what are you going to do for me? And I, I reckon I realized I'd been hired and I said, well, why don't I work for you for a few months? And if it works out, great. If it doesn't, throw me into one of your divisions. He said, great, see you 8:30 Monday morning. Shook my hand. That was it. Got the job.

You're listening to the Alec Hogg Show from Biz News.

Well, I worked for him, carried his bag, helped write speeches, analyze business plans. What an extraordinary man.

What happened on that first day? You have an interview with a guy, arrive at his office and say, here I am, Rupert, or Mr. Murdoch, I presume.

So Monday morning I turn up at his desk. Oh, Rob, good to see you. Look, everybody has access to me and they all give me business plans to invest in. Here's a pile of them. The ones in the bin are from people that, you know, I really don't even want to bother looking at. But these 3 or 4, why don't you read them, analyze them, come back and present them to me? You know, if they're worth looking at, I'll look at them. Off I went. One of them was country music television. And in those days, in the early '90s, late '80s, early '90s, multichannel television hadn't arrived. And Christian music, evangelical music was going like a rocket. But no one had really heard of country music outside of Nashville and Memphis. So I was reading through it and the statistics were incredible how fast this was growing. So, you know, the next day I go in and Rupert says, right, what are you presenting? I go, country music TV. He goes, that's ridiculous, forget it. I would. And I told him a little bit about it and he listened to me and then he asked me 5 questions only. And then those 5 questions define the industry, the sector, the company, but more important, how it fitted into his business. And at the end of 15 minutes of answering those 5 questions, he said, hmm, interesting, all right, offer them $29 million, and if they don't take it, move on. Well, they didn't take it because they knew what they were worth, and today it's worth, you know, many billions of dollars. But he knew exactly how it would fit into his organization. Extraordinary.

What did you learn from him that you're going to apply now to it?

Actually, I'm glad you asked that because obviously he's a very, very decisive man. The greatest thing I learned from him was his kindness, humility, and treating everybody as an equal. He would chat to the taxi driver, and we took taxis in those days. He would chat to the doorman. He would ask them what newspapers they read. He would treat everyone as an equal. He was interested in everyone. And when he was speaking to you, you felt like the most important person on the planet. He really did focus and listen. And the last little thing is he and I went to some other billionaire's drinks party and we walked in together in— it was in Manhattan. And he said, Rob, have a quick look around because the children of the billionaire was sort of at the party, you know, meeting people. And there were some young ones. And he said, look at the people talking to the children. They're the ones who've made it in life. They're not selling anything. They're really interested in what the children say. Extraordinary man.

And his children, particularly the two boys.

So James and Lottie? Not really. No, I didn't. But, you know, they were coming into— they hadn't quite come into the organization. Elizabeth was in London and the boys were starting to come in. And Rupert was obviously preparing for their arrival, but they hadn't arrived yet.

James has been painted as one of those people that you would describe as on the left or woke-ish, whereas Lachlan is pretty much in his father's image. James having left News Corp, Lachlan still there. Having known the family the way that you do, did this surprise you that there was that split?

I don't think James is as woke and as left as people paint him to be. Nor Lachlan as conservative as he's painted to be. I think they're both very sensible men, and Elisabeth too is a dynamic businesswoman. She's extraordinary. She's built great content and media businesses. She's very impressive.

Your exposure to Rupert Murdoch would have prepared you pretty well for the next Rupert, Johann Rupert.

Well, you know, the families knew each other anyway. Johann's dad, the great Anton, He knew the Herzog, Bob Herzog, and then Basil knew Anton, and Johann knew Basil. And the families kind of knew each other and got on fine. And we always used to go at Christmas to Hermannus. We've got a house there. And Johann was exactly 10 years older than me. So he knew me as this sort of irritated kid in shorts, but he kind of knew who I was. And then he heard from someone, he said, this is South African, Harvard MBA. Working as Rupert Murdoch's right hand. And he found out it was me, couldn't believe it. You know, he kind of lost track of where I was going with my career. And Johan was looking for a third leg to his business. He had tobacco, cash generative, luxury goods, big success. And that was his success, not his dad's. He, he got the family into luxury goods. And he said, I need a third leg to the business, and I think it's pay television and media. And he got me to come present to his board in Switzerland. Here's a 31-year-old, you know, with an inkling of knowledge about media presenting the future of media to mainly Swiss lawyers. And they looked at me like I was completely insane. I was talking about holograms and multichannel television, and I was talking about something that resembled the internet. And Johann got it. I mean, he saw the future. The rest of the board thought I was a lunatic, and Johann said, do you mind waiting outside? And then an hour later he came up and said, I'd like you to join the board. I'd like you to come in, be on the main board of Richemont, and help me build a media business. And how can you say no? And people often say, you know, he's talked, talked, talked, doesn't keep quiet. But he feels like he's the smartest guy in the room, and he often is. That's the thing. He actually is a very smart guy. And so, you know, he tends to believe that he knows better than most, and he does in most cases, not all. You know, Johann is an acquired taste. I respect and admire him and like him very much, and I've become a great friend of his. But he is also an extraordinary businessman. You know, his attention to detail is second to none. It is. He is an extraordinary man.

Paul Harris, who I'm sure you know very well, once told me that of all the people on Earth, no one is better connected than Johann Rupert. And I thought at the time he's exaggerating. But having watched the way that he operates in an international, in a global environment, that might well be true.

You know, Johann doesn't seek to be well connected. He's not selling anything. But he has, you know, he does attract people. He's got a character that's, you know, an acquired taste. I've definitely acquired it, and he's fascinating to be with. But what he does have is something no one else has. No one else. The best pro-am golf tournament in the world. And for those people who are golfers, the best invitation on the planet is to be invited to the Dunhill. And no matter how rich, powerful, and extraordinary you are, unless Johan likes you, you don't get invited. There's a certain president of a superpower who sent a letter to him saying, you know, if I'm to be invited, I will accept. Johan just said, forget it, you can't come.

Mr. Trump. But has he leveraged that to South Africa's benefit? Is he able to do that to the country's advantage?

Enormously so. You know, he took a lot of heat over the last 2, 3, 4 years by the bad guys, and he stood up, didn't back down, and he said things and did things that most South Africans can't afford to say and do. He took a pounding. He really took a lot of heat from Malema and those lunatics, but he didn't back down. He also took on Bell Pottinger toe-to-toe and help take them down, which they so deserved. So, you know, whatever you think of him, he has stood the ground on all of our behalves and has done so very bravely.

I remember the very famous speech he made at the Sunday Times Top Companies where he said the things that did not endear him to those who would attack him. But he said afterwards that he was very disappointed at the lack of support that he got.

If you look at the top echelon of 20 wealthiest, most powerful South African business people, black and white, they all were absent. Very few stood up and were counted. He really did on behalf of everyone, and I'm not surprised that he was upset that others didn't. You know, they're all squirreling their money overseas or getting their kids out but they didn't stand up and protect the people that need protecting.

You're listening to the Alec Hogg Show from BizNews. So far in this conversation, people will think, oh, well, here's this rich guy who was well-born, got all the breaks, worked with some superpower business people, but then you kicked on. You had a flirtation with the internet with Sportal.

Well, I'll tell you about Sportal. So, you know, I worked with Johan, built this great media business, sold it, And then, you know, in the process, learned about sports media rights sponsorship business. And I built some extraordinary— I lived in Milan on and off for 2 years. And actually, I was the first foreigner to buy a football team in Italy. I owned Vicenza Calcio. A friend from Harvard Business School and I ended up buying it for nothing and selling it for a decent profit. I didn't even follow football, soccer, and then followed. But I I'd met the head of AC Milan, Juventus, Paris Saint-Germain, and I decided those were priceless relationships. Turned it into a business, and I set up a sports internet business. No one believes this, but I still have the contract. I owned the exclusive wireless and internet—no one knew what they were in '97, '98—rights in perpetuity, which is now illegal under law, to AC Milan, Juventus, Paris Saint-Germain, Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, and 20 other smaller clubs. If I just sat on those and done nothing, I'd be the richest South African there is. But, you know, anyway, I tried to build a business. We aimed to bring broadband to people. We were way too early, and we got wiped out and lost a lot of money, and I had to lay off 220 people. So that was a big fail, and I learned a lot. And then I decided enough's enough on sports and media. What's forever? Well, rich people are forever. There's always going to be rich people in the world. And if someone's worth $5 billion and they lose $2 billion, they're still worth $3 billion. What is the biggest ticket item that they— private jets. And two friends, American friends from business school, were negotiating with NetJets to have to create this jet card, a sort of 25 hours on the NetJets fleet So I called them and said, why don't I do Europe for you? So I founded Marquis Jet Europe, and it was a huge success to the point where Warren Buffett— the tail was wagging the dog in Europe. My Marquis Jet was doing better than their jets, and they were asked— we were becoming their biggest customer. And Buffett called me in 2004, the end of 2004, and said, I'm buying your business. And it wasn't an offer, it was basically saying on buying the business. So I did very well out of it. If I'd held on 3 more years, I would have done much better. But he was the only buyer. So I did that and then became chairman of NetJets Europe. And then in 2008, when the company was in trouble, then American lawyers had a look. Who's this guy earning a lot of money in London? Hirschoff. You know, they were starting to cut. And I ended up having lunch with Thomas Flohr. He was like a minor competitor, had 10 aircraft, we had 150. And those 2-hour lunches that go for 8 hours, at the end of it he'd explain to me how NetJets was never going to succeed and how his little business, VistaJet, would. And I said to him, you know, you've got— you're absolutely right. And he said, well, why don't you join me? And I said, okay, but give me a position where I have lots of authority and no responsibility. I'll be chairman of your advisory board. And to this day, I'm chairman of VistaJet advisory board, and we've gone from 10 aircraft to 160, and we're profitable.

You're listening to the Alec Hogg Show from Biz News. After the experience with the dot-com and the, the building of NetJets, you would have been forgiven for going off to some wherever, writing your memoirs, or— but you haven't done that. You've done kind of the opposite. Now, just to go back in your history a little, your father Basil was, uh, I remember interviewing him some years ago. He was a World War II pilot. He's now in his mid-90s, uh, still full of energy. Antoinette, his wife, still around. And I mean, that must have been a really interesting household to grow up in. On the one side. But on the second side, your energy, your work ethic, your, your drive— was that inherited? Possibly.

Um, but obviously not everyone got it. Um, you know, I've always worked, always tried to do well. I love entrepreneurial activity, starting something and trying to make a success of it. And I actually think business is my hobby. I mean, I love golf and swimming in cold water, But I actually think business is my hobby. And I turned 60 3 days ago, and I feel like I'm just beginning my career. And funnily enough, Johan Rupert left me a message. My wife did a surprise weekend for me. She got tons of friends all over the world to do video messages. And Johan said to me, getting old is ordained, growing up is optional. When I met my wife, Katie, my gorgeous New Zealand doctor wife, He took me aside when he first met her and said, now listen, this could be the best woman you ever meet. It actually could be the best woman in the world. You better bloody grow up before she does. And she's 21 years younger than me. Was he right? I think she's an alien sent from another planet because she is so amazing and perfect. And all my friends agree. I didn't make that up. She is amazing.

It's one of the Buffett things as well, as he says, when you marry, make sure that you marry well, because that's going to be the difference between success and failure. It is wife number 2 for you. So I guess you had to be pretty clear that you got this one right.

I wasn't going to get married again. I was very happy being single, traveling the world, working on business, seeing my friends. And I was in New Zealand. I went to see some rugby, visited a friend there. And he organized a party. He must have called all four corners of New Zealand to say, do we have any pretty, charming, attractive, intelligent girls? And I'm not very religious or spiritual, but I saw this girl across the room and that was it. I mean, that was it. Love at first sight. And most people don't believe in such a thing, but I went down hard.

Was New Zealand ever an option to settle in?

No. And it won't be, it's just not enough is happening there. And it's a little bit woke for me, particularly now. They're fantastic people. They're very much like South Africans, but I like South Africa. It is dangerous, it's edgy, but things happen here every day. And my wife loves it here too. In fact, about a year ago, the penny dropped. We've been here 3.5 years. And she walked up to me and said, I can't stand reading about this ANC corruption and all the stuff going on. Why don't you do something about it? And I said, aha, I will. I am and I will. Now I'll get serious. And she actually kicked me into action.

What are you doing about it?

Did you watch Game of Thrones? So everyone has a favorite character. I'm Mance Rayder. And Mance Rayder was a character who was in charge of the Wall, and he gave up his— he crossed the Wall, gave up his duties, a traitor to the realm. But he crossed the Wall and went north to unite the giants, the wildlings, and all the disparate tribes. And while the Lannisters and Starks were fighting each other, the walkers in the north were getting stronger and stronger. And they were going to come and destroy everyone. And I feel that that's the case here in South Africa. You know, the DA is working hard, the Bureaucracy of Darrell Tate, AfriForum, the Cape Party, Moosie Maimane and OneSA. But I always hear people stabbing one another in the back. And to me, it doesn't make any sense. We all should be focused on getting rid of the ANC, making sure the EFF doesn't get in, and fix this country. Why fight with each other? We have a problem. It's the ANC. Let's get— vote them out of power. So I'm trying to pull everyone together and make sure that they don't stab each other in the back.

You're listening to the Alec Hogg Show from BizNews. You mentioned the Cape Party. There is a groundswell of opinion now which suggests Cape should get its own independence. How do you view that?

Look, there's a lot of logic to it, you know, the cultural, there's economic reasons. You know, the Cape, Western Cape delivers way more money than it receives as a percentage. And many other countries in the world have had secession successfully. South Africa has, and the ANC government has signed the international agreement that secession is allowed. You know, it's a legitimate movement. The chances of it happening, I think, are low. And I think, you know, we need to try and fix South Africa as a whole before we carve the Cape up and disappear. But, you know, I do think that if you have 10 issues and you agree on 7, you're on the same side. And we're trying— I'm trying to get all the people who agree on those 7 issues to work together.

You didn't mention Herman Mashaba.

I— sorry, I forgot that. And Herman, I apologize, that was my mistake. And there are other groups too. You know, Herman's a very brave man, and I think he's doing an amazing job. I'd like to see him and the DA and all of these people work together, at least for the next elections.

So you're going to help fund any of them?

Yes, I've given donations to most of the names that I've mentioned before.

Jacques Zilier wrote a really good book where he projected prior to the previous election that if there were a split in the ANC, the country would be better off for it. And he was looking at some kind of coalition politics going into the future. How are you seeing this evolve, given that you're spending much of your waking time on this goal?

It's amazed me how few of these people actually know one another well. Everybody's doing their own thing, whereas we should be on a regular basis speaking to one another, comparing notes, and at least agreeing to disagree. But focusing on the job at hand, which is to win a majority of the population at the next election. And I'm told there are 17 to 19 million people registered to vote who didn't vote. And Mmisi Mamani said to me, and Michael Lewis is doing an incredible job in changing the electoral dispensation to allow individuals to stand. This will be a game changer. Basically said to me, if we— if they just focus on those 17 to 19 million people, they can win a majority, or we can win a majority. But it's an eye-opener, and there's huge disillusionment with the ANC, even within the ANC. And it does upset me a bit that I have some great Black friends voting for the ANC. I don't actually know any white people voting for the ANC, but I'm sure there are. There's some great Black friends of mine voting for the ANC, They need to now stand up and say it isn't working. Some are doing it, but some are not. And those apologists are the problem.

I heard it described once that the ANC is like a football club. The manager changes, the players change, but you don't stop supporting them.

Molezi Mbeki, who I think is fantastic and very intelligent, said it's an African National Congress. He said nationalist organizations are a problem. They can't think of anyone but themselves. They can't think of the country. And he said they need to break up, but their time is numbered. All nationalist parties' times are numbered, and this one is for sure. We've got to just make sure they don't win this next election.

Rob, before you came back to South Africa 3.5 years ago, were you thinking in this way, or were you perhaps a little naive about what you, you were going to find when you came home?

I said to my wife, we're only going to be in South Africa 4 years because Zuma was in charge. And I said, I think South Africa's got 4 years left before it goes into the abyss. And she goes, well, what does that mean? I said, well, basically most of the pillars of democracy have been compromised. We had treasury, judiciary, media, and finance that hadn't yet. When I got back, finance and treasury came under the attack, and it was really just judiciary and media left standing against the forces of evil, the ANC. And, you know, to turn off the media takes 24 hours. A government, you know, an autocratic government can just say you're out of business. But the judiciary, there are only two ways: replace judges one by one So you get the verdict you want, like Erdoğan did in Turkey. And I think one week after he got elected, 7,000 judges were replaced. Now he's compromised the judiciary. But if you don't do it that way, I reckon it takes 6 years of replacing judges. So I reckon we were 2 years in, 4 years left. And my wife said, what does that mean in 4 years' time? I said, in 4 years' time, there'll be civil unrest. And the police and army will not be incentivized to look after the population, and that's it, we'll leave. Cyril Ramaphosa got elected, and she said, what does that mean? I said, we just kicked the can down the road. The trouble's going to come, it's going to come a bit later, and I think it is coming.

So you feel that it's perhaps the time span might have extended a little, but the consequence is the same?

So I think we're going to have economic collapse, and I think it's in the next 2 years. You know, the flames are burning. There's going to be a big fire soon.

Are you short on South African stocks then? Yeah. And the rand presumably as well?

Yeah, and the rand. You know, the short— in the short term, anything can happen. Stocks can go up, rand can strengthen. But, you know, Eskom's broken, SAA is dead, the SOEs are not working. If you've got any money, you've got your own borehole, your own security, your own electricity, you're paying for your own private schooling. Unemployment is heading to 50%. The ANC have ruined everything. And do they ever mention economic growth? Never.

The country's been written off many times before. I'm sure you'll recall in the head-up to the 1994 election, We had boipatong, bopuratswana, things that have been long forgotten now, where if there was a crisis on a social level, it was even worse then than it is today. Is there anything that gives you hope that maybe your prediction is not going to be fulfilled?

Cyril Ramaphosa is starting to just do a little bit. There are rumors of Ace being pulled into court. He's at last said something about farm murders, although again he sort of washed it down by saying, you know, there are lots of murders and, you know, farm murders are one of them. I mean, he just doesn't have a spine, or he doesn't have the support around him and he can't do it. I don't think there's any way of averting a meltdown of the economy. Eskom alone and the disaster the ANC's imposed upon Eskom alone will destroy this economy.

Even with the Rater, who says he's now starting to feel more optimistic?

There's a lot we aren't hearing. Kuberg is going to have to go offline. I don't know if people know that. To have its— I'm going to get this slightly wrong— new steam something replaced. And 45 days is the estimate if it's done properly. And that's 2 gigawatts of electricity that goes out of the system. I mean, who's going to replace that unless the government allows independent power producers to develop their own businesses and supply directly to cities or municipalities, of which basically Cape Town is the only one that's solvent? You know, we're in for serious, serious load shedding in the next year or so.

That is the plan. We've known that for a while now, that ESCOM's being broken up into 3, and anybody can produce electricity and anyone can distribute it.

But they haven't allowed us to.

Would that change your mind, certainly on the ESCOM story?

Here's the biggest problem: population growth, economic growth. If population growth exceeds economic growth and continues to do so, you cannot win.

And That's the case here. What about COVID and the way that's been handled?

I don't specifically blame Zewielim Kieser and the South African government, but it's become very clear that most governments in the world have screwed it up. You know, Sweden said, we're going to treat you as adults in your family, make a decision over protecting your older people or children, and you make your own decision. Treat us as adults, they've done it right. Here, they're micromanaging us. You can smoke, you can't drink, you can do this. You know, when you've got bad governments and you give them the ability to micromanage, then the errant stupidity comes out as clear as the driven snow. And our government, other than 3 or 4 of the members of parliament, are not very intelligent.

So you're pulling people together politically, but what about pulling age groups together? What about getting the smart youngsters who've grown up as digital natives, who are very much better informed than the older generations are, to get them motivated and understand that they don't have to leave the country to find a future somewhere else. They just have to change those who are making the rules here.

But nothing changes. If you look at Zimbabwe, there's a whole generation that have basically seen their country fall through the floor, and it could easily happen here. You know, we've become another Argentina. What we don't want to become is another Zimbabwe or Venezuela, but it's not impossible. With this lot in charge, it's highly likely we're going to head in that direction. They have no idea how to fix this. Who doesn't care? We do. A friend and I have written an open letter to the president which we haven't published yet. In there are the 10 things to fix the economy. But I had a friend— I won't mention his name— but I had a very smart black friend have a look at it, and he said there's no way the ANC would ever do half of these. They can't. They're a somewhat socialist, kleptocratic, patronage-based, not very smart nationalist organization. They can't do these liberalizing things. So we are heading towards the abyss.

But there is an Economic Advisory Council. If you've had a look at that, or the members—

Don't listen to them. They're not being listened to. I've sent the letter to one of them who said, in an ideal world, Rob, that's what we do, but it isn't going to happen under this government.

So you're still sticking around in South Africa for now?

Yeah. My wife and I love this country. Our children love it, and we'd like to see it succeed. But I'm lucky. I've got wealth abroad, businesses abroad, options abroad. I came back, so I've got actually a world overseas. I could be the last chopper out of Saigon, so to speak, but I feel it's my duty to do something about it, to help people that haven't got those opportunities, who can't get overseas, or who don't want to, as this is their country. So I'm going to try and do my best. Why?

Why is it your duty? Because I can.

I can say things. I can't be fired. I can say things other people can't say. I can do things and afford to do things other people can't do. I feel that I have to do it. Is anyone listening? Yes. In fact, I'm being pushed to do more. And I just don't like politics. It's not what I want to do, but yes, I am being listened to.

If it's not what you want to do, are you hinting that you might actually go into politics?

No way, definitely not. I mean, I actually love public speaking, standing up, leading, being in the front, but not in the political sphere. There are better people than me. I just want to empower them and get them to talk to each other.

If you were to say that journey, it's a train ride from Johannesburg to Durban, how far along that train journey where would you be right now in getting these anti-ANC forces to collaborate?

Halfway. It's happening. The talking, the agreeing not to stab each other in the back has begun. The actual cooperation? Not yet. But there's so much good in this country, people doing great things, that it wouldn't take much for them to agree what can be done and do it very quickly. So Herman is doing a very good job upcountry. The DA running an amazing operation. And I get angry when, you know, some of my friends backstab things the DA say. I said, leave them, they're doing a great job. Focus on the bad guys. And Moosie Baimani, watch that space. He's on the move. People say he's a spent force. No, he's just begun his 1SA movement. He and Michael Louis We'll make an announcement soon. Very impressive.

So in 5 years' time, what's your high road and your low road?

Well, I hope I'm still in South Africa, that things aren't just burning to the ground. I think we've got 10 years of really hard times before— and Wille Petser said this once, you know, he is a brave young man— I think we've got 10 years of hard times before we can create the country that South Africa is meant to be. Not based on race, much more capitalist, truly democratic, with economic growth that exceeds the population growth. We have to get there. And that's your high road? That's the high road. The low road is my wife and I look each other in the eyes and say, this is it, switch the lights off and let's leave. I really hope it doesn't come to that.

You've been listening to another Biz News production. Be sure to catch all our podcasts by subscribing to Biz News Radio on iTunes, Spotify, Amazon, or by visiting biznews.com. I'm Alec Hogg. Until the next time, cheerio.

Humankind didn't predict COVID-19, but we can prepare for its aftermath. We can get to a point where the odds are on our side. Understanding cycles is the most important element in that. COVID is going to fuel the rate of outsourcing, of getting labor inputs from anywhere around the globe. Insights from global experts on preparing for a post-pandemic world. Subscribe to Investec Focus Radio South Africa wherever you get your podcasts.