The Scott Adams School - 06/18/26 Iran Deal and more w/ Joel Pollak

like you just don't have your pants on or something, like something's missing. That's how I'm feeling right now.

Mm-hmm.

But I have pants on. All right, good morning.

Supposedly, allegedly.

I'm not standing up. That's the beauty of this. Okay, let me get this going. Good morning, everybody.

Nobody even knows if you have legs.

True. Good God, Owen, that's terrible. I hated that. Okay, so I'm gonna try to turn YouTube on. YouTube. Hello, good morning. Um, let me start this and try to turn the sound off. Okay, so YouTube, I'm going to try to look at your comments today while looking at everything else I'm doing because I do read all of your comments. And I just wanted to tell you that when I have clips that I'm running, I can't see everybody's comments until I'm done with all of my clips. So please know I do go back, I rewatch the show every day on all the platforms to make sure everybody's comments are seen in case there's something we need to address. But everything's good. And I appreciate you guys keeping it civil and understanding. I'll do my best to toggle around, but it's very hard when I'm running clips. So that's why. So, mm-hmm, no.

Erica knows I'm not AI. What?

KMA.

KMA made a comment saying we don't know if Owen is AI.

Oh.

Erica knows.

I know. I've actually met Owen. I've had dinner with him. I've had breakfast with him. Don't worry about it, but I did. All right, now here's—

Not in a continuous chunk.

Well, no, right? Oh my God, I almost just made it worse. Okay, hang on. We have a guest coming in to join us. Let's bring in Joel Pollack. Oh my gosh. Good thing Joel's here, actually. He's gonna keep us, you know, on the straight and narrow, Owen. Here he comes. In a park. Where are you, Joel, in D.C.?

I'm actually in Dupont Circle. I don't know if I should give out my location because a lot of people might not like me, and I'm pretty easy to find at the moment.

Who couldn't like you? Oh my God.

You look like you're ready to give a broadcast, like live on the street reporting with Joel.

Well, this is Dupont Circle. This is the heart of DC, and I spend some of my time here. And I happen to be here because my 4-year-old accompanied me to drop off my 2-year-old, almost 2-year-old. And this happened, this was not a planned situation in terms of broadcasting, but here we are.

But here we are. Well, you're here just in time for the sip. And let me just see. See, here we go. All right, so we're gonna enjoy a sip and then we're gonna get into it. Let's go.

All you need to participate is a cup or a mug or a glass, a tank or chalice or stein, a canteen, jug or flask, a vessel of any kind. Fill it with your favorite liquid. I like coffee. And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure of the dopamine hit of the day, the thing that makes everything better. It's called the simultaneous sip. Go. Mmm.

Siptastic. He looked so serious about that sip, so I took my sip seriously.

Mm-hmm.

All right, so welcome, Joel. Joel, I'm glad that you were free today, and perfect timing so we can talk about the Iran deal, and I know that you only have about half an hour, so We'll dive into it and we'll get silly after you leave.

But first, have you heard from Elon yet?

I have not heard from Elon. So Elon Musk, if you're out there, please give me a call.

Yes.

He's the only person I am supposed to interview for Scott's biography who I don't have contact information for and can't find it.

Okay, I might be able to, me, I might be able to help with that. So, but also maybe Jay Plemons, can you make a clip for us right now? This, Elon Musk, sir, please. Look, I have a hat behind me on my wall that says, "I love Elon." I do. I have all your stocks. I'm like a fangirl, a stan, whatever you want to call me. But please, Joel Pollack is writing Scott Adams' biography. And one request is to interview you for the book. And you are, of course, so busy, special, and important, and we love you. But please, please, please, we really want you to be part of this book as Scott wished. So please reach out to Joel Pollack. It would mean everything. And I'll buy more shares of Tesla and SpaceX if you do. I know that that matters to you, but it would be great. And scene. Okay. So that wasn't my way of helping you get to him, by the way. I have another way. So anyway, how's that going, the biography?

It's going really well. I've got another couple of weeks to work through the second draft, and then the really hard work begins. The third draft has to be finished by mid-August sometime, and that's where we're going to have to work very, very hard to integrate all the interviews, all the research, and to produce a book that's worthy of Scott and the people who loved him, and that helps him reach a broader audience and helps people understand who he was and what the people big lessons of his life continue to be.

That's right. Yep. Okay. I can't wait. I really can't wait. Yes, Andy Wang, I'm Italian and I have ways of getting to people. That's right. Okay. So listen, let's talk about the Iran deal. Joel reached out to me today. He has worked out a, what are we calling it, Joel?

I'll just call it a contrarian take on the Iran deal.

Okay, let her rip.

So let me give you the kind of two-dimensional takes that you're hearing in media right now. And you're hearing the Democrats say, Trump got nothing, we're worse off than we were before, this was a terrible war, we never should have done it in the first place, and Trump's terrible, Trump sucks. Gas prices are high. He's just awful. He never knew what he was doing. He wasn't prepared. And now free Palestine or whatever. That's, that's the Democrat take. The Republican take, to the extent that people are willing to, well, let me put it this way. There's a criticism that comes from conservatives, from people who wanted the war to go well, which is that Trump has caved. That this is Taco Trump, that ultimately, despite all the bluster and all the threats, he was not willing to take the necessary action, the risks, absorb the costs, to go to war, to finish off the Iranian regime, to completely block all the traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, to accompany every vessel with American force and to bring the regime to its knees, ultimately basically to destroy it. He wasn't willing to go there. We had them on the ropes. We're missing the opportunity. The deal is terrible. We're giving them a bunch of money. We're not even improving on Obama's deal because Obama got these paper promises from the regime not to pursue nuclear weapons. Remember them talking about this fatwa and all this stuff that the regime had supposedly issued saying we can't have nuclear weapons. And this is no better than that. It's just a paper promise. Those are the two takes out there. And a lot of the people I speak to have that second take. And also, if you speak to people in Israel, there's an added edge to it because they feel like they have sacrificed for the last 3 years, especially the last year of conflict with Iran, and it hasn't gotten them anything. The regime is still there. There are still rockets being fired from Lebanon, and they feel betrayed by Trump. And let me give you my take. And I was reading the 14-point plan that they finally introduced yesterday. By the way, I think they were listening to some of my criticism because I, I mocked them a little bit for having a 15-point plan. Remember, Scott used to always say, No plan with too many bullet points ever works. You basically have to have one point and maybe two, maybe three, but once you start getting to more points in a plan, it doesn't work. So I kind of made fun of them for their initial 15-point proposal, especially because Woodrow Wilson had 14 points and that was to end the First World War. So we're only talking about a much smaller war here. How do you have 14 points?

15 points.

15 points. So I think they knocked it down to 14, so they weren't wouldn't exceed Woodrow Wilson.

Which one did they remove?

Yeah.

Which one did they remove?

I don't know. We didn't see the early drafts, you know.

Oh, okay. We'll never know.

Uh, the administration released the 14 points yesterday, and some of them are a little bit concerning. I was disappointed, as I always am, by the fact that human rights wasn't mentioned in the points, because I think human rights are a potential point of leverage against the regime. If you say that they have to commit to human rights reforms, then there's no way they can fulfill the deal unless they open up their political system. And once they do that, then they open themselves up to change from within. If the regime is overthrown from within, then you don't have a problem anymore. So I always liked human rights not just on principle but as a point of leverage. Scott Adams. But that's not in the plan, probably because the Iranian regime isn't stupid and they understood that human rights is another way of undoing them. So there are these 14 points. There's one point in there that blew my mind, and I hear people describing this point and they're getting it wrong, and this point I think is the key to everything. [FOREIGN LANGUAGE] And the point is about the $300 billion in investment that the United States is agreeing to help facilitate as part of this deal. And people are saying, "How are we going to give this regime $300 billion?" We complained when Obama signed a deal that freed up $150 billion, potentially, of Iranian assets. And Trump even yesterday said it was terrible for Obama to give Iran $1 or $2 billion in cash in exchange for American prisoners or hostages. If it's bad to give them $1 or $2 billion, how can we give them $300 billion? But if you read the text of the 14 points, we're not giving them the money. It's not money. It's a commitment to invest $300 billion. And the $300 billion are going to be invested in infrastructure. They're going to be invested in development. They're going to be invested in rebuilding Iran. Now that's also interesting because Iran wasn't really destroyed. We did not hit civilian infrastructure in this war. We didn't, the Israelis didn't. Maybe once in a while something with dual uses for the military and the civilian population, but we stayed away from power plants. We stayed away from roads and bridges. We threatened to hit them, but we never actually did. So what is there to rebuild? Well, it turns out Iran actually does have pretty neglected infrastructure, especially on key utilities like water. And they need help. Putting it differently, you could say they've wasted a lot of the money they got in previous deals and from oil revenues over the years. They've wasted it on terrorism. We're pledging $300 billion to build infrastructure in Iran and invest in the growth of the Iranian economy. That's an investment. It's not a cash grant. It's not giving them investments in the West that they didn't already have. It's $300 billion. It's not coming out of the US Treasury. It's an investment commitment that we've made. And my understanding is that the Gulf states are going to provide some of the capital, maybe all the capital, but it's a commitment to arrange $300 billion of investment.

Okay.

It blew my mind because I think it's the key to the whole thing. And people aren't looking at it this way. They're seeing it as money for terrorism. Yes, that is how the Obama deal worked. Let me say a word about the Obama deal, another word. People say this is like the Obama deal because we don't have more than paper promises on the nuclear program and that kind of thing. There's one major difference everybody's overlooking, which is that When Obama said the military option was on the table, nobody believed him. When Trump is arriving at some similar terms— I will admit some of them look similar— he has already used the military option. Everybody knows he's perfectly capable of using force. That's not a question anymore. So this deal does have greater force or, more likely, greater consequences if it's not honored. But getting back to this $300 billion, I think what Trump has decided to do is to win the war by staging an economic takeover of Iran. Iran will be rebuilt or built with investments from the United States and from pro-Western Arab states and maybe some European states, I don't know. But it will be built by private capital and some sovereign wealth capital that invests in infrastructure and economic growth instead of terrorism, and that grows the Iranian economy so that the size of what's going on in Iran dwarfs the military expenditure, the investments controlled by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, that the size of the economy and the degree of prosperity in Iran begins to outweigh everything else, and that the Iranian people become more prosperous.

Thank you.

In that setup, the regime, even though there's a provision in the agreement, first provision says, "We're not going to interfere in your internal affairs." If you grow the Iranian economy and you control the way it grows through your investments, then whether you like it or not, you control internal affairs in Iran. And so I think what Trump has done very cleverly is lay out an economic plan in these 14 points.

Mm-hmm.

That will amount to us growing our way to peace by controlling and helping Iranian economic growth, which will prevent the regime from spending that money on terrorism and will also make the regime less relevant to the point where people can change it more easily or where it simply controls less and less of people's everyday lives. So nominally, you have some kind of authoritarian regime in charge, but the everyday reality of Iran becomes much more free economically and otherwise. And I think this is brilliant. I think this is amazing. You know, Obama tried the "let's make an agreement and hope they comply" approach. And Trump initially tried the "let's start a war and hope the regime falls" approach. And he got pretty close. And I think the war was successful in destroying Iran's military. I think it was successful in destroying most of the nuclear program. Some of the nuclear material is still there. They could give it to a terrorist group, which isn't good. We want to stop them from doing that, but we have a military threat that can stop them from doing that. We could send special forces to seize the uranium or whatever they have if we needed to. But this is a new approach. This is growing your way out of conflict together. And I don't know exactly if Scott Adams would say that this is the way the plan was set up. I do know that if Scott had still been around, I would have sent him a direct message on X explaining my theory, and he would have sent some responses, and we would have gone back and forth, and maybe he would have endorsed my idea or commented on it on Coffee with Scott Adams. But I really think we have to look at it this way. I think this actually has a chance of working in a way that nothing else did. Now, could we have gone in militarily and changed the regime? Yes. It would have had a major cost in terms of military casualties, mostly because some of the key points in Iran don't really have any terrain that can give you cover. People talk about Karg Island. Trump was talking about Karg Island, but apparently it's flat and our troops would be easy to hit from there. Even though they have the best weapons and best anti-drone technology, they would be fairly easy to hit. The other reality we have to face is we have a midterm election coming up, and the Democrats are not on board for this war. And if the public thinks that President Trump is more interested in the Middle East than in America, then they won't vote for him. They'll vote for the Democrats. And the people who would take over aren't just ordinary Democrats. They are literally Nazis. Dan Plattner, Ro Khanna now has become kind of a Nazi. Kind of raving anti-Semite. All these candidates who are coming up who are just off the charts Democratic socialists, they are going to make Trump's remaining 2 years impossible. They're going to make the country ungovernable, and they'll— they will definitely end the war with Iran or make it a lot more difficult to prosecute. We might like to continue it, let's say, in a position where let's say there's no military cost and we could just go ahead with the war. That's just not the reality we live in. And the fact is that the midterm elections are part of the battlefield. You could look at it that way. They're not just another election. To win the war, you have to win the election. You have to make sure that Democrats don't have total control of Congress. So Trump had to find a way to wind it down. So to the extent there are weaknesses in this deal, that's the reason. But I still think that— Thank you. The structure of the deal could be that we are taking over Iran economically. And here's the other brilliant thing about it: Iran is talking as if they've won, and Trump's critics are talking as if he's lost. And even some of Trump's supporters are saying, "This is a capitulation. This is terrible." And people have accused me of being a member of the Trump cult, or, you know, cashing a check from Trump somehow to come to this point of view, but hear me out. The best way to deal with the Iranian regime is to let them think they've won. Who said it? Never mind the fact that they have to pretend to win so they can explain to their own people why they are still in charge and they're still oppressing them and so forth. They actually have to think they won. It's the only way to get them to go along with some of the provisions that are gonna undermine their control of the country in the long run. When I was a kid, I don't know if anyone else saw this cartoon. I think I was 7 years old. I was sleeping over at a friend's house and we woke up and we saw this cartoon with the Fantastic Four. You guys know the Fantastic Four, those Marvel characters?

Yeah.

And the Fantastic Four were always fighting Dr. Doom. Dr. Doom was the big enemy and he would always come back episode after episode and he would fight them. And one day, Mr. Fantastic, I think it was, who's the guy with the rubbery arms, he had this idea: "What if we let Doctor Doom win? Let's let him win something that doesn't matter, and then he'll go away. Because maybe the reason he keeps fighting us and trying to destroy the world is he wants to win, and he keeps thinking he's lost. And so let's find a way for him to win." So I think Mr. Fantastic challenged Doctor Doom to a game of chess or something like that. And he lost intentionally. Not in a way that it was obvious that he lost intentionally, but he let Doctor Doom win at chess. Doctor Doom is so happy, he goes away, flies away on his Doctor Doom jet or whatever, and never comes back. I'm not saying that the Iranian regime works exactly the same way, but I think letting them think they've won when they haven't is extremely powerful. It's a way of either surprising them if you have to go back to conflict, or it's a way of neutralizing them. But ultimately, for the purposes of this agreement, it's a way of making sure they don't interfere with the fact that you are coming in with $300 billion of capital. You're going to tell them how you're going to spend it. So I think In a really interesting and maybe genius sort of way, this deal is the beginning of a new chapter in the Middle East. And it would fit with what we already know about Trump, which is that he always prefers business and growth to everything else. He's a good commander-in-chief in military, but he would rather find a way to build value economically than to blow things up militarily.

So Joel, my question now is, I like everything you're saying, I agree, I think most of us would agree, it's fine, let the person think they won, it doesn't matter at the end of the day. What about the people like, who I love, Bridget Gabriel, and then you're gonna have your Mark Levin, your Ben Shapiro, so, you know, now they're starting to melt down over this. How's that gonna affect that whole group of people? You know, like Bridget, I played a clip of her yesterday, Bridget Gabriel saying, you know, that they have to be completely wiped out or, so, you know, I'm wondering how people who are so stuck on just, there's only one answer and one answer only, are they gonna be able to now turn down their own rhetoric and let Trump do what he needs to do?

I would say you want them doing that. You want them doing that because they make the military threat credible. Iran does have to believe there's some possibility we could return to war if they don't give up their nuclear materials, for example, or if they don't comply with their part of the agreement. So I think that Mark Levin and Ben Shapiro and Brigitte Gabriel are doing the right thing. I also think they sincerely believe what they're saying. I think they like Trump, especially Mark, I know loves Trump. And they're looking at this and saying, he caved because of the midterms, he caved because of the oil price, and maybe he even caved because the Arab states were putting pressure on him. They're getting hit by missiles. They don't have Israel's defenses. Maybe he caved because the Europeans would not help him with the Strait of Hormuz, any number of reasons. But I think Trump's supporters are still okay with him even if he did cave. Some might be disappointed. I just don't think that many people care enough. And I think most of his supporters just want to see him continue to govern. They trust him more than they trust anybody else.

Mm-hmm.

Oh yeah.

And you cannot get what Trump's gonna give you if Democrats control all of Congress. And again, these are not ordinary Democrats. I'm not one of those people who says every election is the most important election. I don't usually say that. Sometimes I feel that way and I'll tell you, but sometimes I don't feel that way. I don't know if this is the most important, but what I will say is these Democrats are a watershed. If they elect Graham Plattner to the Senate and we have a literal Nazi in the Senate, Okay, I don't accept his excuses. I don't think he didn't know. I think it's all garbage. I think he got the Nazi death's head tattoo because he thought it was badass.

Mm-hmm.

He's kind of like an early version of Nick Fuentes. If Nick Fuentes went into oyster farming, you get Graham Plattner. So I think that having those people in the Senate, having all these— and, you know, my Muslim friends who are sane will excuse me for saying this, but Having all these crazy Muslims in the House and the Senate, people who want to destroy Israel, having all these people who go on Hasan Piker's podcast and it's bad. It's bad for Trump. It's bad for the United States. It's bad for our security, bad for Israel, bad for everybody. And I think caving because of the midterms is a legitimate choice. Mm-hmm. I think Trump achieved a lot at little cost. So even if he did cave and this isn't some genius foreign policy move, I get it because you can't go back to the genius military strategy if you have lost control of Congress and they impeach you and you have to spend the next 2 years defending yourself instead of doing what you're supposed to be doing. But I think the right way to understand this is this is Trump's way of solving problems. And— We've tried the other ways already, so why not give this way a chance?

And I always, I always point this out, Joel, no matter what, you know, Joel has his take on this. Okay. So like everybody, we always say, have their own opinions. You know, you might have someone listening to this might have like a different priority in your life. That's okay too. I, I think, you know, I, I do have to trust in Trump, right? So he's the one leading us. He's the most amazing negotiator and president we're ever gonna see. Um, so we just have to trust in what he's doing. You know, I, I wish I had something brilliant to say, but I feel like so many of us reading all the different comments, we all have so many different takes on these things, but we're gonna have to just try to be satisfied with what Trump is doing and that he knows what's best for our country and moving forward. And yeah, the midterms are a big part of it. Um, you know, if, if we don't hold the House and the Senate and win the presidency next time around, it— like, you think LA looks bad now? I mean, that's how we're gonna look. So, Owen, go ahead. What, what did you want to say about this?

Yeah, well, um, you know, I, I understand and I agree that there's all these perspectives that are maybe what Scott Adams would call a half opinion. 'Cause like, you know, on the after-party Spaces that I did last week, someone was saying, "We never should have gone in there." And it's like, okay, well, let me ask you this question. If we didn't go in there and Iran did get a nuclear weapon and dropped it on Israel, would you regret saying we shouldn't have gone in there? Like, that was the stated reason, at least, was to say we need to stop them from getting nuclear weapons. And so, you know, I don't know if I have any way of really knowing the truth of how close they were or whether they would have done it or not, but I do at some level, like Erica said, trust Trump to say he had whatever intelligence that says, "This is a threat. We need to take care of it." And so they went in and did that. And I'm sure he probably was hoping for regime change and having the population stand up and all the rest, but I don't think that was really the reason he went in. I don't think he went in there to say— Yeah. The reason we're here is to get regime change. I think it was to stop them from getting nuclear weapons. And I think at least temporarily he did achieve that. So I think in that lens, in my mind, it was a success that they, they did, you know, obliterate a lot of their capabilities there. I think the other part of that was just they were building all these drones and missiles and other things to the point where if we didn't do something, they might get to the point where no one could, could keep up with it from a defense standpoint. Mm-hmm. Israel and otherwise. And so I think we set them back a fair ways in terms of having the ability to attack their neighbors and attack people and eventually potentially attack us, you know, with terrorism or whatever else. And so, you know, I see it as kind of a half opinion if you say, oh, we never should have been in there. 'Cause it's like, well, okay, but, you know, there is a big consequence potentially. And as a president, you have to make that call and say, Am I gonna potentially have a nuclear disaster and someone's gonna say, why didn't you do something about it?

And so— I, I agree with that. I'll just point out that I think we couldn't have known whether a nuclear threat was imminent or not.

Mm-hmm.

So when people say we had to do this now or never because of the nuclear issue, they could be right. I just don't think we know. And so when people make that argument, it's not convincing to people who disagree with it because They say, how did you, how would you know? We've heard that for 20 years, blah, blah, blah. I think the simple reason we did this was, first of all, Iran launched October 7th through Hamas. And so this time last year, when Israel was fighting Iran, it was the conclusion to that war that Iran started through its proxies. That got us to this point. But then. We had an opportunity to take out the Iranian leadership, that for whatever reason, the Israelis understood that Khamenei was meeting with all his senior leaders at one place at one time. And so they were going to take the shot and see what happened. And they did. And that's how we got into this. I think we had planned to do something about the nuclear weapons anyway, but the timing, I think, simply has to do with the fact that we had an opportunity. Because the Israelis told us, we know this is going to happen. We can take out the whole leadership of the Iranian regime. We then followed it to its conclusion as far as we could go without ground troops. Americans are not into ground troops. It's not that we're a people who are afraid of a ground conflict. It's just that we've lived through Iraq. We know these things aren't easy and we don't feel personally threatened yet. It's different in Israel. In Israel. In Israel. I wouldn't be sitting in a park with my 4-year-old. I'd be on the front lines because guys my age are still going into the reserves and fighting. They're leaving their jobs, they're leaving their families, and they're going and fighting ground wars in Lebanon. They're getting hit by drones and they're taking out terrorists and so forth. In Israel, they don't understand our reluctance to finish the regime off because they are already on the ground. Their husbands, their fathers, their brothers, their sons. We're just not there. And it's not because we're chicken. It's because— Yeah. We don't have the same level of exposure to the threat. Doesn't make sense for us to stop our economy to send ground troops there. And if we can do it another way, we should. And I think Trump is figuring it out.

Mm-hmm.

I like this idea. If the $300 billion, if he comes in there with the Emiratis and the Saudis and he says, okay, you guys have been firing missiles at us, but we're ending the war. However, you're gonna let us build the water plants. You're gonna let us build the highways. And let's do what the Chinese do everywhere. We put our intel in all of those things. We're going to monitor. We're going to put systems in that track everything going on in your country. We're not just going to have economic leverage. We're going to have intelligence devices everywhere. We're going to— if you sneeze, we're going to hear it in Washington. I just think this is an incredibly opportune moment to take over, and without bombing. And I mean, bombs are the last resort, as Trump said, but— Yeah. I'm not opposed to bombing. I'm pretty hawkish. I'm just looking at this and saying, could this be an entirely different solution? And the more I think about it, the more I like it. And I think that's how we have to look at it. Not because we're on Team Trump, but because I don't think anybody else has a really good answer for what to do. The people who say we should stay out and withdraw, doesn't work. If we withdrew now, like completely, it wouldn't work. People who say that we should go to the end and knock over the regime, Okay, I sympathize with that. I hate the regime. But this is not easy, building another nation. And I mean, when you ask my beloved Iranian-American friends, what do you want instead of the regime? They don't really want democracy. They want the Shah back, or the Shah's son, or whatever. Can you get Americans to invest in a war that's going to restore a king?

No.

I mean, it might be the best solution, but it's just not one that's going to convince Americans to give anything up to do. So I think that the Iranian people, if they're going to make a move against their regime, you know, they have the opportunity to do it now. And as they become wealthier, you know, Alexis de Tocqueville said revolutions don't happen in a time of maximum oppression. Revolutions happen in a time of rising expectations. And if you have the emergence of a wealthy Iranian middle class that refuses to listen to the regime anymore, that's when you're gonna get a revolution in Iran. You know, Cuba's not having another revolution. As poor as the people are, as downtrodden as they are, they're too weak to rise up. People of Iran are too weak to rise up. But let things improve a little bit and you'll see that leaders start to emerge. I'm not sure they want democracy. They might want a monarchy or something, but they want more freedom. Freedom and democracy are not the same thing.

Mm-hmm.

And you can have more freedom within a system that is more centralized and authoritarian. It might not be what I like, it might not be what you and I are used to, but it will be better than what they have. So anyway, I've gone a little over. I've got to hop on my editorial meeting, but I really wanted to share this with you. I know Jay's going to go and clip the best parts, but I know there's a lot of despair out there and people fighting with each other. I'm just looking at this and saying, you know, maybe we've got this all wrong. This deal looks like it's an economic takeover if it's implemented the way I think they intend to implement it. This is an economic takeover. And the point is this: we're going to grow the Iranian economy and the Lebanese economy to the size where the terrorism becomes smaller and smaller relative to what life is like in society, which becomes bigger and bigger. Mm-hmm.

Joel, let me ask you something really quick, 'cause you're gonna leave us here with people who are like on both sides of what you're saying, and I don't feel like anyone's right or wrong, okay, you guys? It's just where I— everybody's entitled to your own opinion and your own feelings based on how you see the world. That's fine. I wanna know this. This is from me. Is— doesn't this depend on B.B. not— popping off and doing something?

You know, I'm glad you asked that question. Bibi doesn't pop off. I know people say that he does. I know Trump says that he does. He doesn't do that. Okay. The reason that Israel has been attacking Lebanon is that the Lebanese terror organization Hezbollah, which is not controlled by the Lebanese government, has been firing rockets at Israeli civilians. And Trump knows that. He also says that. He says, look, I understand they've got to defend themselves, but do they have to hit a building in Beirut? Why can't they just drop a bomb in the desert or something? Well, it doesn't work that way, but Bibi's not popping off. In fact, the big complaint a lot of Israelis have about Bibi is that he doesn't respond strongly enough, that he basically sits back and lets things happen too much.

Yeah.

And I actually asked him about that when he was here in the States a year ago, and he gave me a very interesting answer, which I'll tell you about another time. But he doesn't pop off. When you see Israel attacking, remember, Israel is always attacked first from Lebanon. The Israelis don't really have an interest in attacking Lebanon. And the reason that Israel is attacking at all is because their civilians are in bomb shelters again, and because the northern part of the country, which was supposed to be safe after the ceasefire that Trump negotiated, is coming under fire from Hezbollah. So, you know, I think that'll continue to be a problem because Hezbollah is going to try to test Israel's defenses. So we're going to have a peace deal where we're going to have to live with some conflict on the edges. But I still think that overall things are moving in a positive direction. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. Yeah. We go back to war. But I think certainly there's a possibility that I'm right. And I haven't heard anybody else say this. I think it's the kind of thing Scott would have at least entertained. I don't know if it would have been his view, but it's the kind of thing he at least would have discussed. And yeah, nobody's right. Nobody's got the right answer because all of us basically are playing the percentages. We're all talking about what we think might happen.

And I also want to say, Joel, because this is, this is what happens. A perfect example just happened. So I asked you that question and there's a person in the chat that said, Erica, I know it's just your opinion, but your bias against Israel is obvious. Makes me want to rip my own head off when I see a comment like that. And I just want to say—

My bias against Israel.

I mean, it's like— Hold on.

Mimi, come here.

Oh my God. But you guys, it's not— I don't have a bias against Israel. It's a question that I think a lot of people are wondering.

All right. This is my daughter, Amira.

She's 4. Hi.

So—

I'm 4 and 3/4, guys. Oh, 4 and 3/4.

Oh, very important, Joel.

So Amira is a Hebrew name. It's an Israeli name, actually. Common name in Israel. It's a Hebrew name. It means princess. It also means word. Word. It exists also in Arabic. It's a similar name in Arabic. Amira, take off Daddy's kippah and show the camera. Okay. This is my yarmulke, okay? I'm an Orthodox Jew. Or at least I try to be. And it doesn't mean that everything I say about Israel is correct. It doesn't mean I have any additional authority, but it's just a piece of my personality, which is incredibly and intensely pro-Israel. Okay, that's enough. I'm not biased against Israel. I mean, there's a big part of me that wants Trump to go and finish off Iran because it would be better for America. But yes, because it would be better for Israel. But I'm also looking at this as an American and what will Americans tolerate, what's in America's interest, and what can Trump achieve. And I'm just sitting back and looking at this. Trump doesn't lose. Maybe he does sometimes, but I just— I think he is aware of the criticisms. I think he's aware that people think he's caving. And I think he's doing his level best not to push back too hard, because if you push back and say, no, we're actually winning, then you lose the piece of this where the Iranian regime thinks they've won. Remember, this only works if the Iranian regime thinks they've won, because then you can go in and rearrange their economy.

Well, they need to save face, so—

Yeah, and, and I just think he is doing what he did at the outset of this conflict a year ago, which is using tactics of deception where he said you know, we aren't going to do this, we're not going to attack, and then he did attack.

Right.

I'm not biased against Israel. It doesn't mean I always agree with what the Israeli government is doing, but I'm very, very pro-Israel. I've written books about Israel, try to go there whenever I can. It doesn't mean I don't see things differently sometimes from friends and relatives in Israel. I mean, my Israeli friends are disappointed. They think Trump should have gone all the way. But, you know, as someone said on X yesterday, stop comparing this deal with a better deal that was never going to happen because the midterms are part of the battlefield. And you might think it looks weak to cave just because of elections. No, you can't fight this. We are not a dictatorship. We have to share power in this country, even with idiots.

Mm-hmm.

So we have to take that into account.

Yeah.

And we have to make sure that we have the midterm elections behind us, either to continue the war, or I think if this plan works, not to continue the war. Let's go do the other things that Trump needs to do.

That's the message right there, Joel. It's like, okay, you guys, so that's where we can pivot now and at least feel like we're putting America back in the forefront for those of us that are feeling like, hello, what about us? What about the elections? So this deal maybe can make us feel better, like, okay, we're pivoting back to our future and our elections. And, you know, not everybody's gonna love everything. Not everybody, you know, loves every show we do. And some people hate this and some people, it's okay. But we had to do something different. It can't keep going on that way. And when I mentioned that about Bibi, like everyone calmed down. I'm not anti-anybody. I'm just saying it always has felt to me like we're in this, with Israel, and I feel like, it's my opinion, that when we get close to something, if somebody attacks Israel and Israel has a right to defend itself, it just messes stuff up for us with whatever deal we're trying to do. So I'm just hoping, I'm praying that everybody just stays calm and that this can just move forward. And I don't know, I'm worried about our country and moving forward. I don't wanna see war, I don't wanna see people dying, but I understand Everybody has the right to defend themselves, of course. But Joel, that's what I needed to hear too, is we've gotta look now to our elections and the future of what's gonna happen here. Because if we don't hold power or win our elections, we're in really big trouble here. So I'm glad that we could get to that point in this conversation. Owen, anything for Joel before he has to scooch?

No, I think on the back end, I agree that I think, you know, my opinion is I want Trump to put America first, and I think he needs to focus on the economy, he needs to focus on our priorities. And so I think if anything, I've been lobbying for saying we need to get outta here sooner. Like, I'm glad it's finally there, hopefully, that we have an agreement and we can stop the fighting and we can focus on our own priorities.

Yeah.

I think so, and I think, that although, you know, to my Israeli friends who are disappointed that Trump's not going all the way, I think that this is better for Israel in the long run because if what Trump is trying actually works, then Israelis don't have to send their sons and their husbands to war anymore. You know, you always have to be prepared, obviously, but— I would leave you with this thought. People are depressed about this one way or the other. I don't think you need to be depressed. I think that— I think Trump is making the economic part of this the central part. It's not the first point in the agreement, but to me, when I look at those 14 points, it just jumps off the page at me. $300 billion, and everyone says, "How can you give them $300 billion in cash? They're just going to spend it on terrorism." But it's not $300 billion in cash. This is not Obama's deal.

Mm-hmm.

Not Obama's deal. This is an investment. And when you invest that kind of capital in a country with a relatively small economy, you control that country. You control it. We are going to get control effectively of the Iranian economy. And this is almost like a bear hug. It's a bear hug around Iran. And it's almost like saying we don't need the regime to be this or that for us to— build a better Iran. Why do we have to wait? We got rid of their leader. Why do we have to wait for like some democratic process to happen? Let's just— let's make the economic process happen. And if you look around the world where countries have become more free, it doesn't always happen that making them more free economically makes them more free politically, but it happens a lot. And I think it's worth a try. It's just worth a try, especially if you can get the rest of the Arab world to come along. That's why Trump's talking about expanding the Abraham Accords. And, you know, it's not the way necessarily we would have thought this ended, but we have a limited ability to understand how these things work. And I think even though I don't think it's the greatest example to keep coming back to, I do think we learned that in Iraq. I think that people who think that they know what's going to happen need a little bit more humility, including me. I mean, I don't know that this is going to work, but I'd say I'm about 60% confident that it could. That's the probability I'd put on it.

All right.

Listen, I hope so. We all hope so. You know, we all, we all have hopes and dreams about this, this conflict. All right, Joel, you have to go. We're obsessed with Amira. She is the freaking cutest. And the patience of a little angel, as she is named. So thank you so much. And anytime you can or want to come on, let's do it.

Okay.

Amira. Bye, Amira.

Bye.

Have a great day. Okay?

Okay.

Okay. We love your daddy. He's a good daddy, isn't he?

Yeah.

You're a good girl too. All right, Joel.

Thanks.

All right. See you. Bye-bye, guys.

Bye, guys. Oh my God, how cute is Amira?

Mm-hmm.

So good. All right, you guys, so, you know, listen, a little bit of emotion with all of that, naturally. So let's regroup. We're gonna see what happens. I mean, you know, this whole thing has been changing so fast that tomorrow we could be like, "Oh, they ripped it up," you know, whatever. But anyway.

We've been in that state for a while where it's like there might be agreement, there might not be, there might be more attacks, there might not be, and I'm just ready to be done with it.

Me too. Me too. I think a lot of us are. All right, so here's just a little fun moment. Let's have like an interstitial sip, you guys. And I would just like to point out that Trump is correct in this clip. I love this little clip I came across today. He's at the G7, and it is very important, you guys, if you're ever in a meeting or in a negotiating, make sure that you are never put in a shorter seat. It's very important that you're never below the people that are talking to you. Okay? I can tell you this as a businesswoman who's had many negotiations and meetings and all sorts of things with all sorts of people. So let's take a peek at what's happening here.

I got— Yeah.

He's saying that his seat's lower.

Did you get it up?

He wants a taller seat. Now Prime Minister Carney comes over. He said, I I had the lowest seat in the whole room.

I'm kidding.

I'm kidding.

Carney swapped seats with him.

So funny. Oh, that's much better. Thank you, Mark.

I'll remember that.

And now he's happy. Now Big Daddy's happy. But I do wanna say that, you know, I don't know what the height of his chair was, if that was accurate or not, But honestly, I remember I had an important meeting one time and I don't really care if it's a man or a woman, whoever I'm dealing with in business, but this particular man was definitely a bit of like a chauvinist and, you know, just wasn't taking me seriously, which was his first mistake. But I made sure I set up the room that when he came in, I was in an exceptionally tall chair and I made it as if the only other chair I had was this one. So, he was probably like a foot below me. Mm-hmm. I was like, suck it because I'm not taking your crap today. And I worked out a very good deal and I think I was the victor of it. But I was like, you're not coming in here, you're not gonna claim this seat, you're not gonna try to talk down to me or talk over me. Yeah, never sit in the lowest chair, you guys, unless you genuinely just don't care about whatever meeting you're in. But anyway, just something to think about.

You think that applies to Zoom where you should position yourself at the top of the screen?

For Zoom, I think whoever's hosting it does it, right? I don't know, I don't know much about Zoom.

I just mean in terms of like live streaming or being on virtual meetings, 'cause that's how a lot of things are now. I work mostly remotely and I'm mostly on calls.

Oh, so what do you see? What happens?

Well, it just, I mean, the question I had was like, should you also try and position your camera so that you look taller than the other people?

Oh, so you appear taller?

Mm-hmm.

Yeah, why not? I mean, for me, I like to see— what crank? I like to see, like, I like how we're kind of even today because that's probably the Libra in me, but I like everybody to sort of be the same distance. That's my goal, so everyone has the same kind of view. It's just me. A crank one, what? You better tell me, I wanna see. Okay, so that was that, and then, Not to be outdone, our, our little buddy in the Ukraine, I guess, was feeling left out and unseen. So here's the view in Russia today, thanks to Ukraine firing drones off. So they're bombing oil refineries, Ukraine. It's like, can everyone just calm down for like a month?

And I believe that's close to Moscow.

Yes.

It's like, I mean, I don't live in any of these countries that are fighting, thank God, but I'm like, can we all just like have a nice summer? I mean, we have the summer riots coming up, summer of love. So anyway, I don't know much about that story, Owen, other than Zelensky fired off drones to oil refineries, and now let's see what Russia's gonna do, and here we go again.

Yeah, I mean, I think that's the main story is just that they attack the refinery, but I think the bigger story might just be, you know, how much is it impacting Russia in terms of having fuel supply? And I have seen posts or stories about how there's starting to be shortages and people are waiting in line to get gas and they might be importing fuel because they don't have enough. And so it may be a bigger strategic victory if Ukraine can keep reducing Russia's capacity to produce fuel.

Right. So, okay, so we'll see what happens tomorrow with that story. One thing I wanted to get to the other day, Joel was only going to come on for half an hour, so happy that he stayed longer. For those of you that like a deeper conversation, I think we had that. I wanted to play this the other day about the— I call it the dehumidifier because that's what the Obama Library looks like to me, like a giant dehumidifier. But interesting. Have you guys heard this story? Let's take a quick listen.

Subcontractors are claiming they haven't been paid yet for the work on the project.

So many of our black contractors are complaining about they have not got their money, but the other side of it, a lot of the black community and the newspapers do not know that these people have not been paid. Contractors are already in bankruptcy. That's what they saying, that if it wasn't the fact that they worked on this Obama project, they would not be under this type of problem.

You can file that with you can keep your doctor. The Obama Presidential Center officially opens to the public in Chicago this Friday.

Those are your headlines.

And I know, Rachel, you are going to be first in line.

Okay, so just— I just find that interesting because, oh my God, if, you know, if they heard a story about Trump paying a contractor 5 minutes late or using bankruptcy to his advantage, which is a thing, people, it's an actual thing. Um, oh my God, the freakout. So I find that interesting. I, I don't know much more than that, but I know there is more news about it, so I have to check it out.

Yeah, and that's not the only contractor. There's a bunch of them that are owed a bunch of money, and I think it's in the millions. And I know there's some complaints that they were asked to do like what they described as unnecessary rework. So they were, you know, asked to do extra work, and now it looks like they're not getting paid for it. So it's, that whole project just seems like a disaster. I've heard other problems with it where they were supposed to put some massive amount of money, like many millions of dollars into some kind of escrow fund. To pay for all the maintenance over a certain number of years, and they didn't do it, or they haven't done it. And so there's a lot of questions as to what's going to happen with this thing. And the fact that they're not even paying their contractors tells me maybe they are short on cash already and they're not going to be able to keep, keep it going. And I think they're expecting a lot of people to just volunteer to work there. So they're not necessarily going to pay everybody that works there. And it just seems like a huge disaster from start to finish.

Fully agree, huge disaster. Okay, and then one last thing because, okay, so your algorithm, Owen, you said is filled up with Ukraine. Mine is filled up with the R.A.P.E. gang inquiry. And this, so I'm glad I found this second clip. So I remember this, podcast with Piers Morgan, and Cenk was on, and, um, Don Keith was on, and he was talking about what was going on, um, with these young girls. 250,000. Um, you guys, thank you so much for taking it on yourselves to read what I'm talking about. I just— I want to be careful. I don't want the channel to get in trouble and whatever, but, um, so Piers Morgan, you know, he always has like this way too many people on his show, like all yelling at one time. It's obnoxious. But take a listen to this. And what I want to know, will— you know, I always say it's a superpower that when you get new information, you pivot your opinion and you change your mind. What I want us to look out for, if anybody sees Piers Morgan or Cenk doing a pivot, please alert me because I want to see what happens. But here's, here's the clip. Uh, this is from Don Keith's, um, point of view.

Just a few weeks before Rupert Lowe's rape gang inquiry report was released in Britain, I appeared on Piers Morgan's show where he called my claim of 250,000 young girls being raped by Pakistani Muslim men utterly ridiculous. 250,000 of your women are being raped by Muslim, but it's okay. Again, utterly ridiculous statement.

Go to Manchester.

As I've said repeatedly, the vast majority of sexual crime against women in the UK— That was Lord Malcolm Pearson in Parliament. Don Keith, the vast majority of sexual crime against women in my country is committed by white men. Oh, here we go. You've never heard per capita? I have heard of per capita. Unfortunately, it's disproportionately committed by Muslims against white Christian girls because it's a rape genocide. Let me bring Keith in. Let me bring Keith in. So I wonder what Piers thinks now that Rupert Lowe's rape gang inquiry report has now been released and has confirmed that number. In fact, the scale of Pakistani Muslim grooming gangs raping British girls across the country was even worse than many of us warned. For years, the media, politicians, and so-called journalists actively worked to downplay, dismiss, and gaslight anyone who tried to expose this horror. They protected the narrative instead of protecting the victims. Thousands of young British girls were systematically raped, trafficked, and destroyed while the establishment looked the other way because they were terrified of being called racist. So now everyone who downplayed it owes all of those victims and their families a public apology. But we know they won't because they still care more about their reputations and political correctness than they do about the truth.

Exactly what suicidal empathy is about, right? So they cared more about that. You know, they didn't want to be called a racist because why? Why? Who cares what somebody calls you? 250,000 girls. But, and mind you, like, I— it's such a delicate subject on here, you guys. It's so hard to physically talk about it. But please look into the R.A.P.E. Gang Inquiry Report, um, because it's not like it was one— I'm gonna say assault per girl. It was hundreds, let's say, per girl. Wow. Hundreds of times. And the most degrading, vicious things you've ever seen. That's really all I'm going to say about it at this point, but please check it out. Listen, we have 2 minutes left. Owen, I just want to show you a quick clip of aspiring actor Adam Schiff.

Mm-hmm.

Because he always wanted to be an actor, always. Wait, look at— just look at him and this, this posturing. Ugh. Okay. This is about our new trillionaire, Elon Musk.

What would $1 trillion pay for? Well, $1 trillion, if we decided to distribute that equally among American households, your household would get $7,500. Every household in America could get $7,500 from that trillion $1.5 trillion.

It would also pay for the complete 4-year college education of 7.7 million American students. So you can take all the tuition, all the room and board, all the costs of all of that for 7.5 million students and pay for it by the wealth of our first trillionaire. It costs a lot to raise kids in America.

Well, you can take 4.3 million kids and raise them from birth until 18, pay for everything they need.

Oh my God. And he goes on and on. What the hell is he talking about? Have you seen that? I mean, is he the biggest actor ever?

It's ridiculous. I mean, it's like— I mean, first of all, he's talking about wealth confiscation. You know, without saying it, but he's saying, "I want to take away all the wealth from somebody just because they're rich." Second, you'd probably have to essentially erase or ruin his companies to do that. And if you tried to actually pay for those things, it wouldn't end up anywhere near that amount because you'd have to sell it all and the price would go just way down to the point where it would end up being some small fraction of that. The only reason it stays at a $1 trillion is because he's not selling it.

Right.

Or he's only selling really small amounts of it at a time. And that's one of the realities in the stock market. And that's one of the things with all this wealth tax talk that the Democrats like to have is that you can't do that. You'd end up having— forcing farmers to sell their farms, forcing people to sell their houses, forcing people to liquidate their businesses, and it would ruin all of it. And it wouldn't even be worth what you supposedly thought it was worth by doing that. And so it's just ridiculous the way the Democrats try to frame these things.

It's so gross. And also it's like, who do you think would make better use of $7,500? $7,500, you guys, it's a nice little chunk. It's not gonna change your life, but who could change a life better with $7,500? Me or Elon Musk? My money's on Elon. So let the man cook, congratulate him. He's, uh, he's doing great things for every— for the world. So I mean, but these Democrats are insane. Insane. Um, yes, and $7,500 will be wasted by 99% of the people who receive it. 100%.

But it's just— With all the COVID payments and checks and things, they just immediately get spent and then they're back where they started and it goes right back to the people providing the products and services.

Exactly, so stupid. But anyway, all right, we're 2 minutes over because I put Schiff in there. But anyway, I know I can't bear to look at his face either. All right, you guys, so guess who will be here tomorrow? Marcella! Because don't forget, you guys, tomorrow's a federal holiday. So make sure you have your Juneteenth trees up and your decorations. It comes and goes quickly. So we'll be back tomorrow morning with Marcella. Tomorrow we can do the whiteboard we had planned for today. Okay, so Owen, any closing words?

No, I'm good. I think we've done it for today. We can cover more news probably tomorrow. All right, that's maybe some other things.

Okay, so let's, um, let's say goodbye. I'll close out with the Basket Case Theory song from Akira the Dawn. And you guys, thanks for a fun chat today, and you're all a pleasure. YouTube, you're a pleasure, whether you like it or not. And, um, we'll see you in the morning. Okay, let's have a closing, uh, thank you to Scott and to Shelley for allowing the show to continue. And as always, a closing sip to our beloved Scott, who we miss so much, and we'll get to see a whiteboard with him tomorrow. So to Scott.

To Scott.

Thanks, Owen. Thanks, guys.

Bye, everyone. Thanks for coming.

Everybody is someone else's weirdo. Everybody is someone else's weirdo. Everybody is someone else's weirdo. Everybody. Do you ever feel to yourself, man, I am so weird? If anybody If anybody found out how weird I am, I'd be in trouble. 'Cause man, I'm so weird. Well, I would like to introduce to you the Basket Case Theory. Something I developed when I was a young man to explain what I was witnessing. And it goes like this. If you meet a stranger, could be somebody you wanna date, or just somebody you work with, maybe just a friend. Just a friend. When you meet them, don't they seem pretty complete, have their act together pretty well? Man, that stranger, I wish I could be like that stranger because that stranger doesn't have anything weird about them. They've got their act together and on the inside, pretty confident and pretty capable. And then time goes by and you learn more about your date. Meet, or your friend, or your coworker, and suddenly there's a flaw. Oh, I didn't see that on day 1, but there does seem to be a flaw, maybe a little weirdness. Day 10, looks like there's more than one flaw. 2 years later, well, I guess everybody's fucked up. That's the basket case theory. Everybody looks good until you get to know them. Once you get to know a human being, they're always basket cases. Well, I guess everybody's fucked up. That's the basket case theory. Everybody looks good until you get to know them. Once you get to know a human being, they're always basket cases. Always. Just different kinds of baskets. As soon as you realize that every fucking person is a basket case, you're free. You're free. What bothers you more than anything, as long as you're healthy and you have a job? I have a job. What bothers you more than anything is what people think of you, or what you think they think of you, or what they might think of you, or how they would treat you if you did this embarrassing thing? They're not better than you. Basket case theory. They're not better than you. They're just people you don't know that well. That's it. There's nothing else to the story. You just don't know them that well. If you did, you wouldn't be impressed.

Hahaha.

Everybody's fucked up. That's the basket case theory. Everybody looks good until you get to know them. Once you get to know a human being, they're always basket cases. Well, I guess everybody's fucked up. That's the basket case theory. Everybody looks good until you get to know them. Once you get to know a human being, they're always bad pictures.

My new favorite song. That was so great. You guys, thank you so much for the kind words and the love. I miss him so much. So much. Yeah, lemon minty, that's how I miss, miss him too. Like deep, right? Deep. But you guys, thank you so much. We'll be back tomorrow. Um, I appreciate all of you and, um, thanks for helping keeping Scott Adams' memory alive through his channels. This is what he wanted. This is what he wanted. He didn't want us to be him, but he wanted us to be together and we are. So thank you, you guys. I'll, uh, Oh, thanks, Becky. Thank you so much. All right, you guys, so we'll see you tomorrow, okay? Have a great day, be useful, do something fun, don't take shit from anybody, okay? All right, love you guys, bye. Doesn't wanna end!